Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass - The trend is oscillating weakly, but short - selling at low levels requires caution. The short - term support lies in the relatively low valuation and high positions, which may lead to short - covering in the near - term contracts. However, factors such as forward premium, inventory pressure, and off - season effects will suppress the price. The glass market is expected to fluctuate between low near - term valuation and lack of upward drivers. Attention should be paid to real - estate rescue policies and supply - side production cut expectations [2]. 纯碱 - The medium - term trend is oscillating weakly, and short - selling at low levels also requires caution. Supply surplus, forward premium in futures, and potential downstream production cuts are the core drivers for the price decline. Either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry can drive the market. Although the current operating rate is declining, the downward driving force is weakening, but the future delivery pressure cannot be underestimated. The room for a continuous sharp decline in price is limited at present [3][4]. Summary by Directory Glass Supply - There were slight changes in float glass production lines this week. One production line in East China was restarted and ignited, but no products were produced, and the weekly output decreased slightly. As of December 11, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 219 in production and 77 cold - repaired and shut down. The start - up rate of the float glass industry was 73.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.48%. The daily output of national float glass on December 11, 2025, was 155,000 tons, the same as on the 4th. It should be noted that production cuts usually occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 17,730 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 15,010 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of potentially newly ignited production lines was 14,190 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of potentially restarted old production lines was 9,530 tons, and the total daily melting volume of potentially cold - repaired production lines was 9,100 tons/day [9][10][11]. Price and Profit - Some manufacturers reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe was about 1,060 - 1,080 yuan/ton (a few reduced by 20 yuan/ton), in Hubei in Central China it was about 1,060 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was about 1,180 - 1,220 yuan/ton (mostly stable). The basis and spread have remained stable recently, with the basis slightly stronger and the spread stronger. The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was about 35 yuan/ton, while the profits of using natural gas and coal as fuel were about - 196 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively [19][22][26]. Inventory and Downstream Start - up - This week's trading was differentiated, with good trading in major consumption areas and weak trading in major production areas. The total inventory decreased slightly. Different from previous years, inventory reduction started in the third quarter this year, and the intensity of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter was not strong. Regional arbitrage opportunities were limited as price differences between regions changed little [34][36][38]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The recent market trading has weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 11.5 - 12 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08%, and the decline was 2.08 percentage points larger than last week. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was 18.5 - 19 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60%, and the decline was 1.32 percentage points larger than last week [42][44]. Capacity and Inventory - The recent market trading has weakened, and the inventory is expected to rise seasonally later. There were a total of 402 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. The sample inventory days were about 33.06 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.41%, and the increase was 0.49 percentage points larger than last week [46][47][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash production units had staged maintenance and load reduction. The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.3%, up from 80.7% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash was about 397,800 tons/week. Under the background of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers need to increase production cut efforts or the real - estate industry chain needs to continue to recover to drive the rigid demand and inventory replenishment of glass. Recently, soda ash enterprises have been actively limiting production, and the output is expected to recover slightly next week. Although the glass production capacity remains stable, there is still pressure from new soda ash production capacity in the future [58][60][63]. Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4943 million tons, a decrease of 44,300 tons from last Thursday, a decline of 2.88%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 703,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,000 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 790,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,300 tons. The inventory was 163,450 tons lower than the same period last year, a decline of 8.58% [4][67][68]. Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was about 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe was 1,100 yuan/ton, and a few had slight price cuts. The factory ex - works price remained unchanged. Due to recent production cuts and inventory decline, the spread should not be overly bearish. The profit of the combined soda production method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 49 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda production method in North China was - 68 yuan/ton [73][77][83].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a demand-driven approach, with a focus on domestic consumption as the primary economic driver for 2026[1] - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5%[1] - The general budget deficit ratio is expected to remain around 4% in 2026, with an increase in the scale of government financing compared to 2025[1] Group 2: Policy Measures - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented in 2026, with expected reductions in open market operation rates and LPR by about 10 basis points[1] - The conference outlines eight key tasks for 2026, prioritizing the stabilization of the real estate market and enhancing social welfare[1][8] - Measures to stabilize employment and improve living standards are highlighted as essential for boosting domestic demand[11] Group 3: Market Trends - Industrial demand remains weak, with significant declines in prices for coking coal and coke due to reduced demand from downstream steel mills and increased imports[12] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.5% and 3.75%, impacting market volatility[12] - The domestic economic environment is in a moderate recovery phase, but the foundation still needs strengthening[12]

Core Insights - The glass industry is characterized by its heavy asset nature, with leading companies in float and photovoltaic glass having fixed assets and construction projects accounting for approximately 60% and 40% of their revenue respectively [4] - The supply side of the glass industry is subject to strict regulations, with the new 2024 policy prohibiting the addition of new flat glass capacity nationwide, emphasizing a zero-increment approach in key areas [4] - Demand for float glass is primarily driven by the real estate sector, with a forecasted contraction in demand over the next two to three years, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow [5] - The cost structure of the glass industry is heavily influenced by raw materials and energy, which together account for over 80% of total costs, leading to significant profit sensitivity to fluctuations in prices of soda ash and fuel [6] - Leading companies maintain competitive advantages through scale and vertical integration, with significant revenue gaps widening between top-tier firms and others in the industry [7][8] Supply Side Analysis - The glass production process is dominated by the float method, which accounts for 80%-90% of total production, while the upstream consists of inorganic raw materials like silica sand and soda ash [3] - The design lifespan of glass production lines is typically 8-10 years, necessitating continuous production once operational, which contributes to supply rigidity [4] - The cyclical nature of the glass supply side indicates that during upturns, supply is an independent variable, while in downturns, it becomes a dependent variable [4] Demand Side Analysis - The primary demand for float glass comes from housing construction and the automotive sector, with housing being the dominant factor [5] - The photovoltaic glass market is driven by the growth in solar installations and the penetration rate of dual-glass technology, with expectations of continued growth in global and Chinese solar installation capacity through 2030 [5] Cost Structure & Profitability - The profitability of float glass companies has seen a widening gap in gross margins, with leading firms experiencing a 14 percentage point increase to a 20 percentage point difference from 2015 to 2024 [6] - The photovoltaic glass sector shows a smaller margin difference, indicating a more stable competitive landscape compared to float glass [6] Competitive Advantage Analysis - Scale advantages and integrated supply chains are crucial for leading companies to maintain low-cost positions, with top firms like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group showing significant revenue leadership [7][8] - Leading companies are increasing their self-supply ratios for raw materials, such as silica sand, to mitigate cost pressures and enhance profitability [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by policy expectations at the lower level, with raw material costs decreasing and profit margins gradually improving. The steel price may fluctuate within a range, with rebar expected to trade between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [3]. - The trading weight of iron ore fundamentals has slightly increased recently. However, with the alleviation of industrial chain contradictions, the recovery of steel mill profits, and the strengthening of rigid demand for winter storage replenishment, the downside price space is expected to be limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate with macro - sentiment [21]. - The marginal change in coking coal supply is limited, but due to pressure on terminal steel mill profits and continuous reduction in hot metal production, the surplus of coking coal has deepened. Coking coal prices will remain under pressure in the short term. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift downward, the supply side maintains a production - cut trend, and the low valuation limits the downside space. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly, but there may be a rebound due to production - cut drivers [46]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity commissioning expectations, the surplus expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the futures price has begun to break through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further. The overall high inventory in the upstream and middle reaches limits the price [60]. - In December, there are renewed expectations for cold - repair of glass production lines, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract 01 will still follow the reality. Currently, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the degree of inventory destocking in the middle - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3082 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3093 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3240 yuan/ton, 3232 yuan/ton, and 3239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were 22 yuan/ton and 8 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 33 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 11 yuan/ton and - 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 782.5 yuan/ton, 760.5 yuan/ton, and 738 yuan/ton respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 1.5 yuan/ton, 20.5 yuan/ton, and 43 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 319.19 tons; the global shipping volume was 3368.6 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of coking coal were 145 yuan/ton, - 74 yuan/ton, and - 71 yuan/ton respectively; those of coke were 236 yuan/ton, - 83 yuan/ton, and - 153 yuan/ton respectively [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 922 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 12, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 42 yuan/ton, - 52 yuan/ton, and 94 yuan/ton respectively [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 140 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 54 yuan/ton, - 42 yuan/ton, and 96 yuan/ton respectively [48]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 soda ash contracts were 1093 yuan/ton, 1126 yuan/ton, and 1184 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 58 yuan/ton, 91 yuan/ton, and - 33 yuan/ton respectively [61]. - **Spot Price Data**: The market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash was 50 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 glass contracts were 935 yuan/ton, 1062 yuan/ton, and 1135 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 73 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and - 127 yuan/ton respectively [85]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On December 10, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 101, 94, 92, and 107 respectively [86].

Core Views - The building materials sector slightly underperformed the overall A-share market in 2025, with a return of 19.62% compared to a -4.85% excess return relative to the Wind All A Index [2][10] - The macro outlook suggests that total policies are expected to strengthen, with physical demand support likely to increase, as emphasized in the December Politburo meeting [2][15][20] - The glass fiber industry is anticipated to see a resonance between traditional and emerging fields, with demand growth expected to remain stable despite a potential slowdown [2][23][45] 2025 Market Review - The building materials sector's performance can be segmented into several phases, with notable periods of underperformance and outperformance against the A-share market [10][12] - The glass fiber sub-sector showed significant excess returns driven by high demand in wind power and thermoplastics [10][12] - The cement sub-sector experienced a boost due to improved domestic demand expectations and effective supply-side discipline [10][12] Macro Outlook - Fixed asset investment in China saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October 2025, with infrastructure and real estate investments dropping by 0.1% and 14.7%, respectively [15][19] - The Politburo's focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply is expected to lead to a moderate increase in total policies [15][20] - The anticipated fiscal spending for 2026 is projected to reach 41.62 trillion yuan, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, with a focus on effective investment [20][21] Glass Fiber Industry - The supply shock in the glass fiber industry is gradually being digested, with new capacity expected to be limited in the medium term [23][39] - The effective production capacity for glass fiber is projected to reach 759.2 million tons for roving and 107.7 million tons for electronic fabrics in 2026, representing year-on-year increases of 6.9% and 7.3%, respectively [23][40] - Demand for glass fiber is expected to remain stable, supported by wind power and thermoplastics, despite potential declines in growth rates [45][46] Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to maintain self-discipline in supply, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity, which will support profitability [3][20] - The exit of 10,952 million tons of outdated capacity is projected, which will enhance the utilization rate of clinker capacity [3][20] - The profitability of the cement sector is expected to improve in 2026, particularly in regions with significant infrastructure projects [3][20] Glass Industry - The glass industry is experiencing accelerated supply clearance, which is expected to provide price elasticity in 2026 [2][3] - The current state of losses in the industry is likely to drive the closure of high-cost production lines, leading to a potential rebound in prices in the first half of 2026 [2][3] - Long-term policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition are expected to stabilize industry profitability and enhance the competitive advantage of leading companies [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market trading has weakened, and steel prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash markets face continuous supply - demand contradictions, with glass showing a weakening trend and soda ash under pressure due to potential demand challenges. For double - silicon, the decline in building material consumption has put pressure on alloys [1][3]. - The recommended strategies for glass, soda ash, silicon manganese, and silicon iron are all to expect a sideways movement [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures showed a weakening trend, and the market trading center of the spot market moved down. Soda ash futures had a narrow - range fluctuation, and downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 58.227 million heavy cases, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease; the soda ash production was 735,400 tons, a 4.48% week - on - week increase, and the inventory was 1.4943 million tons, a 2.88% week - on - week decrease [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, although the increase in cold - repair of production lines has slightly improved demand, the supply contraction is insufficient, and the supply - demand contradiction remains large. For soda ash, the cost - side support has weakened, and there are concerns about future demand due to the expected increase in float glass cold - repair [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy for glass and soda ash is to expect a sideways movement [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis**: For silicon manganese, this week's steel consumption decreased, and the silicon manganese futures followed the downward trend of the black market. The 6517 silicon manganese prices were 5490 - 5550 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton in the southern market. For silicon iron, the main contract declined after the mid - day session. The 72 - grade silicon iron prices were 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade silicon iron prices were 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Silicon manganese enterprises are facing losses, with high production, high inventory, high cost, and low demand. The port manganese ore inventory has slightly increased but remains at a high level. Silicon iron demand has weakened, and enterprises have reduced the operating rate, leading to a decline in inventory [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy for silicon manganese and silicon iron is to expect a sideways movement [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Macro - disturbances have temporarily ended, and the off - season fundamentals are poor. Prices still face downward adjustment pressure, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of winter storage and replenishment expectations [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, arrivals decreased significantly, port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories decreased. Iron water production continued to decline sharply, steel mill profitability weakened, and replenishment demand was released slowly. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [1][8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply increased, demand was stable, and inventories accumulated. However, electric furnace profits were acceptable, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises for scrap steel still had support. It is expected that the spot price will follow the decline [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support has weakened, and the expectation of the second - round price cut is strong. But the coking and steel enterprises have gradually started winter storage and replenishment, so the fundamentals still provide support. The current disk valuation is too low, and there is insufficient drive for a significant downward movement. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal [2][14]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals have marginally improved, but the market remains pessimistic in the short term due to bearish funds. After the delivery is settled and the mid - and downstream winter storage and replenishment are gradually launched, the fundamentals and market sentiment will gradually recover, and the disk valuation is expected to repair upward [2][15]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: High costs support prices, but the market supply - demand is loose, cost transmission is difficult, and there is insufficient drive for the disk to rise. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will oscillate at a low level following the sector [2][18][19]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: High costs support the price bottom, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the disk. It is expected that the silicon ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate at a low level following the sector [2][20]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There is still an expectation of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [2][16]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2][6][18]. 3.5 Steel - Spot market transactions were weak, steel production decreased, and demand was weakening. The inventory of steel continued to decline, but the inventory level was still higher than the same period last year, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in steel mills. The steel disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment [8]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On December 11, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all declined, and the steel industry chain index also showed a downward trend in different time - periods [102][104]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 宏观扰动频繁，盘⾯表现分化 地产利好政策出台预期持续升温，市场情绪转好，钢材及铁矿盘⾯受 此影响反弹较为明显，关注接下来的中央经济⼯作会议以及海外降息 节奏。近期钢⼚盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢材产量难以⼤幅下降， 基本⾯在进⼊淡季之后仍有压⼒，钢材盘⾯反弹空间有限。冬储补库 预期⽀撑下铁⽔下⽅⽀撑偏强，仓单压⼒以及进⼝增加预期继续压制 煤焦价格，供需过剩下玻纯表现依旧不佳。 地产利好政策出台预期持续升温，市场情绪转好，钢材及铁矿盘面受 此影响反弹较为明显，关注接下来的中央经济工作会议以及海外降息 节奏。近期钢厂盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢材产量难以大幅下降， 基本面在进入淡季之后仍有压力，钢材盘面反弹空间有限。冬储补库 预期支撑下铁水下方支撑偏强，仓单压力以及进口增加预期继续压制 煤焦价格，供需过剩下玻纯表现依旧不佳。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水下降明显，下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检 修，但钢厂盈利率略有好转，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环 比略增，澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增 加，本期到港环比减量明显。但港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting weak performance in various sectors while noting some marginal improvements in construction and consumer activity. Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% to 81.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] - Steel apparent consumption has also decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 2.68% and a year-on-year drop of 2.4 percentage points to 1.2% [2] - Social inventory of steel continues to decline, down 2.9% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry - Cement production and demand show marginal improvement, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 38.9% [23] - Cement shipment rates decreased by 0.8% week-on-week to 44.4%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [23] - Cement inventory ratio continues to decline, down 1.9% week-on-week [23] Demand Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 24% week-on-week and 20.8 percentage points year-on-year [46] - The migration scale index remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points to 19.8% [58] - Movie attendance and box office revenue saw significant increases, with attendance up 322.0% year-on-year and revenue up 313.9% [64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally rising, with vegetable prices increasing by 2.1% week-on-week, while pork prices fell by 0.7% [88] - The South China industrial product price index rose by 1% week-on-week, with energy prices up 0.3% and metal prices up 1.7% [100]