Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Mid - to Long - term**: The speculative sentiment in the black - series commodity market has significantly cooled this week, with a mainly oscillating and weakening trend. The capital availability rate of construction sites has slightly increased by 0.27 percentage points but decreased by 3.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real - estate sector recovers slowly, and the steel demand side remains under continuous pressure. Steel supply is expected to shrink, but the short - term fundamental improvement is limited. The daily average hot - metal output has slightly increased, while the overseas ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at China's main ports have decreased. Future steel mill production restrictions are expected to affect the iron ore demand side. For glass and soda ash, the float glass start - up rate and weekly output are flat compared to last week, with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak supply - demand fundamental. Soda ash supply remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [69][73]. - **Short - term**: The main contracts of black - series commodities have shown an oscillating and weakening trend recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of subsequent policies and real - estate data, and cautious and light - position operations are recommended. The main contracts of glass and soda ash have mainly oscillated within a range this week, and short - term band operations are recommended [70][74]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | Closing Price on 2025/8/8 | Closing Price on 2025/8/15 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3213 | 3188 | - 25 | - 0.78 | 3320 | 132 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2510 | 3428 | 3439 | 11 | 0.32 | 3460 | 21 | | Iron ore | I2601 | 774 | 776 | 2.5 | 0.32 | 784 | 8 | | Coke | J2601 | 1734 | 1730 | - 4.5 | - 0.26 | 1620 | - 110 | | Coking coal | JM2601 | 1227 | 1230 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1350 | 120 | | Glass | FG601 | 1196 | 1211 | 15 | 1.25 | 1250 | 39 | | Soda ash | SA601 | 1332 | 1395 | 63 | 4.73 | 1326 | - 69 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On August 14, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to August 7 [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of August 15, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons; the rebar output was 220.45 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [15]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 1.8994 million tons, a decrease of 208,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 83,767 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 4.1493 million tons, an increase of 264,500 tons compared to the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 1.7226 million tons, an increase of 40,600 tons [25]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 8, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons [30]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14.38157 million tons, an increase of 114,300 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9.1364 million tons, an increase of 123,060 tons [33]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the daily average ore - unloading volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 346,800 tons, an increase of 103,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume at main ports in China was reported at 130,200 tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the number of operating float glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,117,025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was 75.34%, the same as last week [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.579 million weight boxes compared to August 8; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days compared to the previous week [48]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.32%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 761,300 tons, an increase of 18,400 tons compared to last week [57]. - **In - plant Inventory**: As of August 15, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons compared to August 8 [62]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of August 15, the production and sales rate of soda ash was reported at 96.23%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points compared to August 1 [66].

格隆汇8月15日丨福莱特玻璃(06865.HK)公布，公司将于2025年8月27日召开董事会会议，以（其中包 括）审议及通过集团截至2025年6月30日止六个月的中期业绩及其发布，以及审议派发中期股息的建议 （如有）。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The steel production and sales are weakening, and the price is oscillating and correcting. The market sentiment of glass and soda ash is declining, and they are oscillating. The consumption of steel is weakening, and the alloy prices are continuously dropping [1][3] - Glass prices are expected to be oscillating weakly, and soda ash prices are also expected to be oscillating weakly. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market was oscillating weakly. The spot market was mainly for刚需 purchases, and the speculative sentiment weakened. The weekly开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer inventory was 6.3426 billion heavy boxes, a 2.55% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market was oscillating strongly. The downstream demand was continuously weak, mainly for刚需 restocking. The weekly产能 utilization rate was 87.32%, a 1.91% increase from the previous week; the output was 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.8938 million tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With the decline of market sentiment, glass returns to its fundamental pricing logic. The supply has not been effectively cleared, the speculative demand has weakened, the supply - demand is still loose, and the spot price has dropped. The increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the price of the 09 contract [1] - Soda Ash: Currently, the soda ash output is continuously increasing with an expected further increase. The consumption may further weaken, and the inventory growth pressure is large. In the short - term, it is easily affected by news, while in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will suppress the price [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The steel data showed that steel inventory was continuously increasing and consumption was significantly declining. The silicon manganese futures market was oscillating downward. The spot market was in a wait - and - see state. The 6517 grade in the northern market was priced at 5,800 - 5,870 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5,850 - 5,920 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Affected by the decline in steel prices, the silicon iron futures market tumbled at the end of the session. The silicon iron manufacturers' supplies were tight, and the spot market price was stable. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural block in the main production area was 5,450 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,900 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The output and demand of silicon manganese have slightly increased, the manufacturer inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at a medium level in the same period. The manganese ore quotation to China has slightly increased, and the cost has slightly moved up, supporting the spot price. However, considering the continuous increase in manganese ore port inventory, the cost support is weak, and the industry has obvious over - supply [3] - Silicon Iron: Currently, the silicon iron output is rapidly increasing, the demand has slightly increased, and the manufacturer inventory has increased month - on - month and is at a relatively high level in the same period. The increase in chemical coke price has driven up the cost, supporting the spot price. The industry has obvious over - supply [4] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon Iron: Oscillating [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Core View - Supply side: Rainfall in the producing areas may affect the release of new rubber, and the raw material procurement price is strong. Future focus is on the raw material situation during the peak production period. Demand side: Current channel trading is average, some agents replenish goods as needed and mainly control inventory. Terminal demand has no obvious improvement, and channels are cautious about restocking. Market sentiment has cooled recently. If the raw material volume increases smoothly during the peak production period, consider short - selling at high prices [2]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14,800 yuan/ton. The basis of whole milk switched to the 2509 contract increased by 165 yuan/ton to - 832 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 16.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37% [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 1000 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.33%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1065 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.47% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, a 44.23% increase; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a 12.03% decrease; India's production was 62,400 tons, a 30.82% increase; China's production was 103,200 tons, a 6.8 - ton increase. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 percentage points to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a 0.74% increase; tire export volume was 60.31 million pieces, a 2.44% decrease; natural rubber import volume was 463,400 tons, a 2.21% increase [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 8,614 tons to 631,770 tons, a decline of 1.35%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,519 tons to 42,235 tons, a growth of 6.34% [2]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Core View - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the main contract has rebounded. Although the market is not optimistic about the capacity clearance and self - discipline of industrial silicon, in the context of the anti - involution policy, the overall operating price center of commodities has moved up, and industrial silicon is no exception. The cost of raw materials such as coal may increase, which will push up the cost of industrial silicon and raise the future price center. In August, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips. The inventory has increased, but the warehouse receipts are still decreasing. The main contract has shifted to SI2511, and the position of the 09 contract has decreased to about 50,000 lots. Technically, the hourly line has weakened, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 725 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.38%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,750 yuan/ton; the basis (based on SI4210) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton, a decline of 21.43% [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 900.00%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 85.71% [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, a 3.23% increase; Xinjiang's production was 150,300 tons, a 15.21% decrease; Yunnan's production was 41,200 tons, a 153.86% increase; Sichuan's production was 48,500 tons, a 31.05% increase. The national operating rate was 52.61%, a 2.47% increase; Xinjiang's operating rate was 52.59%, an 18.21% decrease; Yunnan's operating rate was 32.89%, a 133.76% increase; Sichuan's operating rate was 36.96%, a 56.81% increase. Organic silicon DMC production was 199,800 tons, a 4.54% decrease; polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, a 5.10% increase; recycled aluminum alloy production was 625,000 tons, a 1.63% increase; industrial silicon export volume was 68,300 tons, a 22.77% increase [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 tons to 11,700 tons, a growth of 0.09%; Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 tons to 3,140 tons, a growth of 2.61%; Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 tons to 2,260 tons, a decline of 0.88%. Social inventory decreased by 0.20 tons to 54,500 tons, a decline of 0.37%; warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged at 25,350 tons; non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.20 tons to 29,150 tons, a decline of 0.67% [4]. Group 3: Polysilicon Core View - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is larger, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. Due to the previous sharp price increase above the full - cost level, it is expected that the number of warehouse receipts will further increase. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, polysilicon prices are expected to rise again. Otherwise, it may fluctuate and decline under the pressure of inventory and warehouse receipt increase. Currently, there are news of production restrictions, and future attention should be paid to the enterprise's operating conditions and production changes. The main price fluctuation range may be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. After the price returns to the lower edge of the cost range, consider buying on dips. When the price is high, consider buying put options to short. The position of the 09 contract has decreased to about 18,000 lots, and investors are advised to pay attention to position control and risk management in advance [5]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material (average price) increased by 860 yuan/ton to - 3,430 yuan/ton, a growth of 20.05%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210mm) decreased by 0.01 yuan/piece to 1.54 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.65% [5]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 860 yuan/ton to 50,430 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.68%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 975 yuan/ton to - 740 yuan/ton, a decline of 414.89% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 tons to 29,300 tons; silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 GW to 12.1 GW. Monthly polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, a 5.10% increase; polysilicon import volume was 80 tons, a 16.90% decrease; polysilicon export volume was 210 tons, a 66.17% increase; polysilicon net export volume was 130 tons, a 323.61% increase. Silicon wafer production was 52.75 GW, a 10.35% decrease; silicon wafer import volume was 70 tons, a 15.29% decrease; silicon wafer export volume was 550 tons, a 12.97% decrease; silicon wafer net export volume was 480 tons, a 12.59% decrease; silicon wafer demand was 58.54 GW, a 0.21% increase [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 tons to 24,200 tons, a growth of 3.86%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 GW to 19.8 GW, a growth of 3.61%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 330 to 5,480 [5]. Group 4: Logs Core View - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side currently remains strong at the level of 64,000 cubic meters. The inventory has significantly decreased due to fewer unloading ports and strong shipment volume. From the perspective of shipments from New Zealand, it is expected that the overall shipments in August will be the same as in July. Currently, short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term demand improvement needs to be verified. This week, the futures market was weakened by new warehouse receipts. Technically, the market is in a downward correction trend. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/cubic meter. At low prices, there may be long - position buyers. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market stabilizes [6]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Log 2509 decreased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to 809.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.43%; the price of Log 2511 decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 828.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.66%; the price of Log 2601 decreased by 7.5 yuan/cubic meter to 838.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.89%. The spread between 9 - 11 increased by 2.0 yuan/cubic meter to - 18.5 yuan/cubic meter; the spread between 9 - 1 increased by 4.0 yuan/cubic meter to - 28.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 09 contract increased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 59.5 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 11 contract increased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 78.0 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 01 contract increased by 7.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 88.0 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 3.9A medium radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 750 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 3.9A large radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 860 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 7.173, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 1.00 yuan/cubic meter to 817.60 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - **Monthly Data**: The port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 27,000 cubic meters to 1.733 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.51%. The number of departing ships decreased by 6 to 47, a decline of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory and Demand**: As of August 8, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters, a decline of 2.84%. The average daily shipment volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous period [6]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Core View - **Soda Ash**: Recent information from Qinghai has affected the market sentiment, but it has no impact on the supply in Qinghai for now. The weekly production has significantly rebounded, and the inventory has returned to the accumulation stage, with obvious overall over - supply in the fundamentals. Recently, the spot sales have weakened. In the medium term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, the float glass production capacity has remained flat, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, with a further cold - repair expectation. Therefore, there is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. In August, which is the traditional summer maintenance season for the soda ash industry, track the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants. The previous market increase was due to news, and consider short - selling at high prices [7]. - **Glass**: The market has been weak recently, and the negative feedback in the market continues. After the previous sharp price increase, the inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - stream traders and futures - cash traders, and the futures - cash inventory in Shahe has reached a new high. In the future, there may be a rush to sell during the shipment process. In Hubei, the inventory has also shifted, and the middle - stream faces shipment pressure, which will squeeze the manufacturers' shipments. Therefore, it is difficult to further increase the overall spot price. Fundamentally, the deep - processing orders are weak, the operating rate of low - emissivity glass is continuously low, and there is certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long run, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear the excess capacity to solve the dilemma. In August, track the implementation of local policies and the restocking performance of downstream enterprises near the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Currently, the market sentiment has declined, and short positions can be held, while being vigilant about the market fluctuations caused by macro - factors [7]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of glass in North China remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton; the price of glass in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,220 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.81%. The price of Glass 2505 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,316 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.61%; the price of Glass 2509 decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,053 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%. The 05 basis decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 166 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.06% [7]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan/ton; the price of soda ash in East China decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.85%. The price of Soda Ash 2505 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 1,452 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.04%; the price of Soda Ash 2509 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.25%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 102 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.24% [7]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash increased by 2.24 percentage

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday's rebar apparent demand data fell short of expectations, and combined with coking coal position limits, the black sector continued its weakening trend. Although some coal mines are resuming production, supply may still contract due to ongoing inspections. There is a strong expectation of production restrictions before major events, which provides strong support for prices. Steel downstream inventory pressure is emerging, and the performance in the next few weeks needs attention. If there are macro - level positives before the inventory contradiction intensifies, there is a chance of resonance. In the near term, prices are expected to oscillate within the current range with limited downside [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to last year's level. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and it is less likely for steel enterprises to cut production in the short term due to profit reasons. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2]. - Inventory: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly increasing. The fundamental bearish driving force is limited, and the future price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines have reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. On the import side, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has led to a decline in the number of customs - cleared vehicles to around a thousand, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area has restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term Mongolian coal imports may be restricted [3]. - Demand: Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before and have no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange's position limit, market sentiment has declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Alloy: The ex - works price of manganese ore has increased, the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers has rebounded, and there is support on the demand side for manganese ore. With the current acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore is gradually rising. In an environment of industry profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese - silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the market supply - demand gap will tend to be filled, and there are still hidden concerns in the medium - to - long - term fundamentals. The upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly increasing, and the internal contradiction is not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances [4]. - Demand: After the decline in the glass futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the mid - stream has increased shipments, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly. Recently, the increase in coal prices has strengthened cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices will oscillate widely [4]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply pattern has not changed, production is at a high level, and supply pressure still exists. Although there is no short - term production disturbance, production is expected to continue to increase [17]. - Demand: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out. The demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall downstream inventory replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. The sentiment affects the futures market, and the large month - to - month spread alleviates some delivery pressure, but the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [17]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses 3.6.1 Steel - Core Logic: Speculative sentiment is poor, some futures - spot traders are selling, and terminal buyers are more cautious. Steel mill production is a mix of resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has not changed much. Rebar inventory has increased significantly, and demand has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil export orders have improved, and domestic demand has resilience, with inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventories of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils have increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products has declined, continuing the off - season characteristics [9]. - Outlook: The sentiment in the coking coal market has cooled, and the futures market has declined from its high. Currently, the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, but there may be disturbances in supply - demand and cost before the military parade. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [9]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume was 130.2 (+46) million tons. The price of the swap main contract was 102.64 (-0.87) US dollars per ton. Spot market prices fell by 7 - 15 yuan per ton, and port trading volume increased significantly. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is strong. Pig iron production increased, and inventory increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: Iron ore demand is at a high level, supply and inventory are stable, and the fundamental bearish driving force is limited. Future prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The demand from electric furnaces increased to a new high this year, and the demand from blast furnaces also increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [11]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both increasing, and the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. 3.6.4 Coke - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has cooled, and the spot price has declined. After the sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprise profits turned positive, and production increased slightly. Downstream steel mills are profitable and actively producing, and the demand for coke is strong. Although there is a large amount of inventory in the mid - stream, the supply - demand structure is still tight [13]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of coke production restrictions. The supply - demand of coke will remain tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel mills [13]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has declined after the exchange's position limit. Some coal mines have reduced production due to various reasons, and short - term supply disturbances will continue. Mongolian coal imports may be restricted. The demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure [14]. - Outlook: Due to the impact of over - production inspections, coking coal supply is expected to recover slowly. Although the sentiment has declined after the position limit, the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [14]. 3.6.6 Manganese - Silicon - Core Logic: The manganese - silicon futures price followed the sector down after the significant decline in the coal - coke futures price. The spot price remained firm. The cost of manganese ore is rising, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser as manufacturers resume production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [17]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term upside price space is limited [18]. 3.6.7 Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: After the market sentiment cooled and the coal - coke futures price dropped significantly, the ferrosilicon futures market weakened. The spot market is short of supply, and prices are firm. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers resume production, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have hidden concerns, and the upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the coal market and electricity costs [19].

Group 1: Report Overall Information - The report is the Black Building Materials Daily on August 15, 2025, covering various black building materials such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1] Group 2: Steel Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 109,055 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2382 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.636544 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 16,049 lots [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3432 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 78,386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.291831 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 62,005 lots [2] Spot Market - The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products showed a weak and volatile trend. This week, the export volume declined slightly, and the overall export remained weak [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for rebar decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. For hot - rolled coils, demand rebounded significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise marginally, steel mills' profit levels are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's ability to absorb is obviously insufficient [3] - With the Politburo meeting concluded and the "anti - involution" sentiment gradually cooling down, market sentiment has become more rational, and the futures price trend has started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Market - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 775.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.52% (-20.00), and the position changed by - 462 lots to 452,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 907,500 lots [5] Spot Market - The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 771 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.12 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. On the shipment side, shipments from Australia continued to decline month - on - month due to mine maintenance, shipments from Brazil increased month - on - month, and shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly month - on - month [6] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output according to Steel Union data was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the utilization rate of the production capacity of previously restarted blast furnaces [6] - In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased significantly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken this week, and the decline in rebar consumption data was obvious [6] - From a fundamental perspective, the current supply side is in the traditional shipment off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has started to decline after raw material prices reached a relatively high level. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in pig iron may be limited [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6050 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) continued to weaken, closing down 0.86% at 5744 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 156 yuan/ton [8] Market Analysis - From a daily - line perspective, the futures price of manganese silicon is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate at the right time [9] - For ferrosilicon, the futures price is also above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. Similar to manganese silicon, investment positions are advised to wait and see, and hedging positions can participate as appropriate [9] - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1, the "anti - involution" trading has affected the market. As the sentiment of Supply - side 2.0 cools down, the market is squeezing out the over - valued part, driving prices down. Currently, sentiment still has a significant impact on the futures price [10] - In the short - term, it is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, and it is better to wait and see. However, hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10] - Fundamentally, the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed due to "anti - involution." For ferrosilicon, there has been no obvious change, and it is expected that in the future, there will be a marginal weakening of demand for manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector [11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Yesterday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,051 lots to 535,123 lots [13] - In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 525 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 275 yuan/ton [13] - The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not fundamentally changed. In August, the operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and downstream demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur [14] Polysilicon - Yesterday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (-860). The weighted contract position changed by - 4414 lots to 310,109 lots [15] - In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 44.5 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was - 3430 yuan/ton [15] - In July, "anti - involution" and the expectation of a polysilicon industry capacity integration plan drove prices up rapidly. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and downstream silicon wafer production has increased to some extent, but silicon materials are likely to accumulate inventory. The price of downstream distributed components has increased and then回调, and whether the price increase chain in the industry can be smoothly transmitted to the end - user remains to be seen [16] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday, the spot price in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price in Central China was 1120 yuan, also unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million weight boxes (+2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [18] - After the Politburo meeting, market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices回调 significantly. Currently, the market sentiment has basically been digested. Glass production continues to increase, inventory pressure has increased, and downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly [18] - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro sentiment. If there are substantial policies in the real - estate sector, futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is needed for significant price increases [18] Soda Ash - The spot price was 1280 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons (0.94%) from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1338 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1100 tons [19] - The downstream float glass operating rate increased slightly, and the photovoltaic glass operating rate decreased and then stabilized. Downstream buyers are waiting and seeing, and procurement enthusiasm has slowed down. Soda ash production facilities are operating stably, and inventory pressure has increased, but heavy - soda ash inventory has decreased slightly [19] - In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, supply - side and market sentiment will have a greater impact on prices, and the price center is expected to gradually rise, but the room for price increases will be limited due to the slow improvement of downstream demand [19]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The medium-term adjustment of both glass and soda ash markets is not over. For glass, wait until the end of delivery to consider anti-deflation and anti-involution. For soda ash, it rises based on expectations and falls due to delivery [4][5] - There is a possibility that the market will return to the negative feedback channel until the end of delivery. Anti-deflation and anti-involution can interrupt the negative feedback cycle [24] - The real estate industry is weak, with tight funds and lackluster transactions, which has a negative impact on the glass and soda ash industries [25][30] - Although anti-involution is weakening, there is still a possibility of trading anti-deflation in macro asset allocation [35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Glass Views - The main pressures include weak terminal demand, high futures premiums, large warehouse receipt pressure during the 09 contract period, and the lack of significant inclination in the previously hyped anti-involution policy. The main bullish logics are large positions, the unchanged trend of anti-deflation policies, and the possibility of market-driven production cuts [4] Supply - Side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,680 tons/day; newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 12,110 tons/day; potential newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,000 tons/day; potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 8,130 tons; potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [44][45][46] - Short - term production reduction space is limited. If demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain scale of production reduction in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day [52] Price and Profit - Market prices have gradually declined in the past two weeks. Futures have rebounded, the basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread is still weak. The 01 contract has a premium of nearly 150 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. Profits vary by fuel type, with petroleum coke having a profit of about 130 yuan/ton, and natural gas and coal - fired having profits of about - 150 and 111 yuan/ton respectively [64][70][74] Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recent transactions have declined significantly, and inventories in various regions have increased. Regional price differences tend to widen. The supply - side current output is 159,000 tons/day, and it is expected that demand will exceed 5 million tons for at least 2 - 3 months in the second half of 2025 [81][86][90] Soda Ash Soda Ash Views - The main pressures are high supply and high inventory, with large warehouse receipt pressure during the 09 contract period. The main bullish logics are the unchanged trend of anti - deflation policies, concentrated inventory structure, improved export markets, and the linkage between stocks and futures [5] Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The current capacity utilization rate is 85.4%. The weekly output of heavy soda has reached 423,000 tons/week. The inventory is about 1.865 million tons, with 717,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.148 million tons of heavy soda ash [106][108][111] Price and Profit - Market quotes have been lowered, and the reduction range of traders' quotes is greater than that of manufacturers. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The profit of the soda ash industry varies by region and production method, with the joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) being 68 yuan/ton and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China being 56 yuan/ton [121][123][127] Market Scenarios - The market scenario of soda ash is becoming increasingly weak. Under different demand assumptions (weak, neutral, and optimistic), there are different supply - demand gaps [129] Anti - Involution, Anti - Deflation, and Real Estate - "Anti - deflation and anti - involution" are necessary for building a unified national market. The real estate industry has debt repayment pressure in the first half of 2025, with weak investment and lackluster transactions [8][29][30] Photovoltaic Glass - The overall transaction in the domestic photovoltaic glass market is good, and the inventory has been continuously decreasing. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels have increased. The number of in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day. The sample inventory days are about 26.93 days, showing a downward trend [94][96][98]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coking coal market cooled down, and the prices of the black building materials sector declined. However, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are relatively healthy, and there is still a chance to resonate with macro - level positive factors. Before new driving forces emerge, the prices are expected to oscillate within the current range, with limited downside potential [1][2][7] Summary by Category Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to the level of the same period last year. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to regular maintenance in steel mills but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts due to profit reasons in the short term is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased mainly because of the concentrated arrival of floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited. The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - **Supply**: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down or production - reduced coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. In terms of imports, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port affected the number of customs - cleared vehicles, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term imports of Mongolian coal may be restricted [3][13] - **Demand**: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders and no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still had support under healthy fundamentals [3][13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The ex - factory price of manganese ore increased, and the demand for manganese ore was supported by the recovery of the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers. With acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore gradually moved up. In an environment of industry profit restoration, the resumption of production by manufacturers continued, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policies with specific production - restriction requirements [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, in the long - term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3] Glass - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of original glass increased on a month - on - month basis, indicating speculative purchases by downstream players. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, the middle - stream sales increased, and the production - sales ratio of the upstream decreased significantly [4][15] - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, and there were no prominent internal contradictions, but there were many market - sentiment disturbances. The recent increase in coal prices strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals remained weak. In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [4][15] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Although there are expectations of supply decline due to environmental concerns in Qinghai, the long - term supply pressure still exists, and production is expected to continue to increase [17] - **Demand**: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. The demand for light - soda ash from downstream industries is weak, mainly for periodic restocking. The market is affected by sentiment, and although the large monthly spread eases some delivery pressure, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is weak. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [17] Specific Products - **Steel**: Speculative sentiment was poor, spot trading was weak, and the supply increased while demand decreased during the off - season, with inventory accumulating. However, exports are expected to remain resilient. The fundamentals of steel are marginally weakening, but low inventory and potential production - restriction policies before the parade still provide short - term support [8] - **Iron Ore**: Demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and the fundamentals have limited negative driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply decreased while demand increased, and the fundamentals are gradually strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the supply - demand structure remains tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to potential production - restriction policies related to the parade [12] - **Coking Coal**: Short - term supply is tight due to disturbances. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under healthy fundamentals [13] - **Manganese Silicon**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the upside potential of the price is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic [18]