Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices is attributed to the expiration of February COMEX contracts, which led to a significant price drop before a rebound, driven by low speculative participation in the market [4][5][22]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The fundamental market conditions have not changed significantly despite the recent price fluctuations [4][22]. - Speculative levels in the gold and silver futures markets are low, with limited participation from hedge funds and speculators [4][22]. - The price drop was strategically executed by market participants to mitigate risks associated with the upcoming contract expiration [5][22]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The primary demand for gold and silver is coming from Asia, particularly China, where households have a savings rate of approximately 35%, leading to an annual increase of about $6 trillion in savings [6][23]. - Chinese banks offer gold accumulation accounts, encouraging residents to buy gold, while silver is also being purchased for industrial and physical delivery purposes [6][23][24]. - The historical context of silver in China, where it was once a standard currency, contributes to the ongoing strong demand for silver in the region [24]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Context - There is a shifting perception in China regarding the US dollar, with preparations being made for potential dollar depreciation amid geopolitical changes [8][26]. - The US Treasury may face significant challenges in financing long-term debt, leading to rising yields, which could negatively impact stock market valuations [8][26]. - The current market environment is characterized as a structural shock against the dollar, indicating a transition from credit assets to "real money" in the form of gold [8][26]. Group 4: Future Projections - The company anticipates a long-term bull market for oil, projecting prices to rise from over $60 to $90, with $90 being just the initial phase [9][27]. - Predictions for gold and silver prices are optimistic, with targets set at $48,000 for gold and potentially over $1,000 for silver [30].

Market Performance - On January 29, the A-share market saw a decline of 0.23%, with a trading volume of CNY 3.26 trillion, an increase of CNY 267.1 billion from the previous day[1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.51%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.00%[1] - Net inflow of southbound funds was HKD 4.374 billion, with Tencent and Xiaomi seeing inflows of HKD 800 million and HKD 643 million respectively[1] Sector Rotation - Rapid rotation in market styles was observed, with AI applications surging over 6% in the morning, while gold and oil stocks initially rose but quickly retreated[1] - The white liquor index surged by 9.79% in the afternoon, with all constituent stocks except Kweichow Moutai hitting the daily limit[1] - The real estate sector also showed strength, indicating a potential shift in trading strategies[1] Debt Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield fell to 1.81%, marking a one-month low, while the 30-year bond yield decreased to 2.24%[4] - The bond market is experiencing upward pressure due to a shift in sentiment as equity markets weaken, with significant inflows from funds and securities[4] - Short-term rates remain stable, with R001 holding at 1.44% and DR001 declining to 1.36%[4] Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold and silver prices rising by 7.88% and 8.51% respectively[7] - Industrial metals also performed well, with copper increasing by 6.71%[7] - However, extreme volatility was noted in the night session, indicating potential risks in the market[7] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the 3.5-3.75% range suggests a supportive environment for precious metals in the long term[8] - Geopolitical risks and supply constraints are expected to support oil prices, with a significant drop in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations". The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the export's marginal support for growth cannot offset the insufficient domestic demand. The price remains low, and the credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in the observation and verification stage, and the improvement of physical work and demand is expected to be concentrated in the first quarter. Overall, the short - term domestic fundamentals have limited direct support for risk assets, and the market is waiting for further confirmation of policy effects and data [11]. - Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is slowly falling, and policy uncertainty is rising. The US consumption is still resilient but with weakening internal momentum. Core inflation is cooling, but service - item inflation is sticky. The market's focus has shifted to the Fed's leadership change expectation, increasing policy uncertainty and asset - pricing differentiation. However, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to the resilience of risk assets [11]. - In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate medium - cap style in domestic equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; keep a neutral position in national bonds and standard - allocate 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate precious metals such as gold and silver; over - allocate non - ferrous metals like copper and tin; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 29, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4784, with a daily increase of 0.79%, a weekly increase of 1.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4%. The SSE 50 futures price was 3130.4, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8517.6, with a daily decrease of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 15.68%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8329, with a daily decrease of 0.51%, a weekly decrease of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.01% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.875, with a daily increase of 0.02%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.11%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.25, with a daily increase of 0.06%, a weekly increase of 0.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.36%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.17, with a daily increase of 0.08%, a weekly decrease of 0.12%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.68% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9481, with a daily decrease of 64 pips, a weekly decrease of 151 pips, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 409 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5479%, with a daily decrease of 3.54 basis points, a weekly increase of 5.44 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 43.42 basis points. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.8164%, with a daily decrease of 1.47 basis points, a weekly decrease of 1.34 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 3.09 basis points. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, with a daily increase of 2 basis points [2]. 3.2 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 28, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.5, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.61%. ICE Brent crude oil price was 67.69, with a daily increase of 1.65%, a weekly increase of 3.44%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 11.13%. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.723, with a daily decrease of 2.54%, a weekly increase of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.32%. ICE UK natural gas price was 90.36, with a daily decrease of 1.7%, a weekly decrease of 12.25%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 21.11% [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 5411, with a daily increase of 4.47%, a weekly increase of 8.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 24.9%. COMEX silver price was 116.62, with a daily increase of 10.06%, a weekly increase of 12.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 64.3% [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 13086.5, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.32%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.72%. LME aluminum price was 3257, with a daily increase of 1.56%, a weekly increase of 2.63%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 8.68%. LME zinc price was 3364, with a daily increase of 0.39%, a weekly increase of 2.91%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 7.61%. LME tin price was 25953, with a daily increase of 1.96%, a weekly decrease of 1.15%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 38.26% [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans price was 1074.75, with a daily increase of 0.7%, a weekly increase of 0.68%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.63%. CBOT soybean oil price was 54.35, with a daily decrease of 0.11%, a weekly increase of 0.78%, a monthly decrease of 0.67%, and a quarterly and annual increase of 11.95%. CBOT corn price was 430.75, with a daily increase of 1%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.32%. CBOT wheat price was 535.25, with a daily increase of 2.29%, a weekly increase of 0.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.68%. ICE No. 2 cotton price was 63.64, with a daily decrease of 0.3%, a weekly decrease of 0.31%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 1.03% [5]. 3.3 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Shipping**: On January 29, 2026, the freight rate of container shipping on the European route was 1349.09, with a daily increase of 3.21%, a weekly increase of 9.46%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 11.36% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold price was 1250.65, with a daily increase of 5.29%, a weekly increase of 12.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 27.64%. Silver price was 30452.18, with a daily increase of 4.42%, a weekly increase of 22.06%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 78.31% [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 474.41, with a daily increase of 2.57%, a weekly increase of 6.89%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.59%. Fuel oil price was 2802.96, with a daily increase of 2.94%, a weekly increase of 7.01%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.38%. Low - sulfur fuel oil price was 3316.32, with a daily increase of 2.6%, a weekly increase of 6.48%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 13.76%. Asphalt price was 3472.58, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly increase of 7.28%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.39% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Stainless steel price was 14641.24, with a daily increase of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 0.54%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.8%. Aluminum price was 17208.52, with a daily increase of 1.13%, a weekly decrease of 0.85%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.85% [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel price was 3165.04, with a daily increase of 0.67%, a weekly increase of 0.57%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.4%. Iron ore price was 796.29, with a daily increase of 1.94%, a weekly increase of 0.36%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.9%. Coke price had the first round of price increase, and the market sentiment was positive. Coking coal price was weak and stable in the spot market, and the futures price was strong [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal price was 2848.88, with a daily increase of 0.5%, a weekly increase of 1.35%. Soybean oil price was 8366.29, with a daily increase of 0.65%, a weekly increase of 3.49%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.4%. Palm oil price was 9347.99, with a daily increase of 0.97%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.08% [8]. 3.4 Short - term Judgment of Each Sector - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with index opportunities being better than individual stocks. Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with intraday style switching and increased option trading volume. National bond futures are expected to be volatile, with the short - end of the bond market showing a strong trend [12]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Gold is driven by the smooth expectation of liquidity easing and the resurgence of geopolitical conflicts. Silver is supported by the tight spot structure and is sensitive to liquidity and the cyclical drive [12]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping on the European route is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitical emotions and the downward pressure of off - season freight rates [12]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to be volatile. Steel is supported by cost and the futures price is rising from a low level. Iron ore has a slight decrease in molten iron production and an accelerated inventory build - up in the downstream [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Copper is rising due to the significant decline of the US dollar index. Aluminum is rising due to optimistic capital sentiment. Nickel is rising due to the game between policy expectations and weak reality [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all expected to be volatile. Crude oil is affected by supply pressure and geopolitical factors. LPG is affected by the weakening chemical demand and the risk from Iran [14]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Oils, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Oils are continuing their upward trend. Natural rubber has broken through the previous high and is continuing to rise. Protein meal, corn/starch, and sugar are expected to be volatile. Protein meal is pushed up by short - covering, and corn/starch and sugar are affected by various factors such as demand, macro - environment, and production [14].

Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The current crude oil market is driven by both geopolitical premiums and expectations of supply surplus. Tensions in the Iran situation support oil prices, but have not had a substantial impact on supply. Continued attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI's opening price was $62.58, closing at $63.50, with a high of $63.57, a low of $62.07, a daily increase of 1.78%, and a trading volume of 32.95 million lots. Brent's opening price was $66.62, closing at $67.69, with a high of $67.71, a low of $66.14, a daily increase of 1.65%, and a trading volume of 49.71 million lots. SC's opening price was 462.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 472.5 yuan/barrel, with a high of 475.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 461.1 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 3.69%, and a trading volume of 14.43 million lots [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Three major institutions have successively released their January reports, generally indicating a pessimistic outlook. Both the IEA and EIA expect the market to continue accumulating inventories in 2026, and the inventory accumulation rate has accelerated after the supply and demand adjustments in the January report. Weekly data shows that the operating rate of US refineries has declined month-on-month, and crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased across the board, also indicating a bearish trend [7] - **Geopolitical Situation**: On the 22nd, Trump announced that the US would deploy more troops to Iran. The possibility of a direct conflict is relatively low. The tension in the Iran situation supports oil prices, but has not yet had a substantial impact on supply [7] 2. Industry News - Trump is considering new major strikes against Iran, including air strikes on Iranian leaders and security officials, as well as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and government agencies. He has not yet made a final decision [8] - The CEO of Baker Hughes Oilfield Services said that Venezuela can gradually increase its crude oil production in the short term, but a comprehensive and in - depth reform is needed to truly and significantly restore the country's oil production [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][14][21][23]

Oil Market - Oil prices surged significantly on Thursday, with WTI March contract closing at $65.42 per barrel, up $2.21 (3.50%) and Brent March contract closing at $70.71 per barrel, up $2.31 (3.38%) [3][14] - The U.S. Navy has increased its presence in the Middle East, with a total of six destroyers now deployed, alongside an aircraft carrier and three other combat ships [3][14] - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production freeze policy during the upcoming meeting, with major members like Saudi Arabia and Russia reviewing supply policies for March [3][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 4% to 2831 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 increased by 3.09% to 3307 yuan/ton [4][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels (14.71%) to 19.938 million barrels, while Fujairah's inventory increased by 125.8 thousand barrels (12.36%) [4][17] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains strong due to recovering downstream demand, but an increase in supply may create pressure in the coming month [4][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2603 rose by 3.39% to 3478 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipments decreasing by 6.6% to 341,000 tons [6][18] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt producers is at 5.7%, down 0.6% week-on-week but up 3% year-on-year [6][18] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions, with a focus on inventory accumulation [6][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 increased by 330 yuan/ton to 16,690 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing gains [7][19] - Global natural rubber production is expected to decline by 10.8% to 1.416 million tons in December, while consumption is projected to rise by 2.9% to 1.307 million tons [7][19] - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with prices influenced by macroeconomic factors [7][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5332 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, while EG2605 closed at 3957 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [8][20] - PX futures closed at 7380 yuan/ton, down 0.16%, with spot prices at $921/ton [8][21] - The polyester sector is facing weak demand, with production disruptions expected to continue [8][21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang are at 2282 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269/ton [9][22] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [9][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to ongoing pressure from inventory levels [9][22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are fluctuating, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [10][23] - HDPE and LDPE prices have seen slight declines, while LLDPE prices increased by 99 yuan/ton [10][23] - The market is expected to face inventory accumulation as demand weakens ahead of the Chinese New Year [10][23] PVC - PVC prices are experiencing slight adjustments, with the market remaining under pressure from high supply and slowing demand [11][24] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with expectations of price stabilization in the short term [11][24] Urea - Urea futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1817 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase [12][25] - Supply is expected to rise as production ramps up, but demand is softening ahead of the holiday season [12][25] - The market is likely to remain in a high-level fluctuation range due to seasonal demand pressures [12][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are showing a strong upward trend, closing at 1224 yuan/ton, with a 2.6% increase [13][26] - The market is facing increased supply pressure, with production rates declining slightly [13][26] - Demand is expected to weaken as the holiday approaches, leading to potential inventory accumulation [13][26] Glass - Glass futures prices are stable, closing at 1087 yuan/ton, with a 1.78% increase [14][27] - The market is experiencing steady supply, but demand is beginning to weaken as the holiday approaches [14][27] - Inventory levels are decreasing, which may support prices in the short term [14][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] - For methanol, considering its low current valuation and improved future outlook, there is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] - For urea, due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, it is advisable to short on rallies [7] - For rubber, the chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] - For PVC, in the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, as styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] - For polyethylene, with OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 16.80 yuan/barrel, or 3.69%, to 472.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had significant increases. US EIA weekly data showed changes in crude oil and refined product inventories, such as a 2.29 - million - barrel draw in commercial crude oil inventories to 423.75 million barrels [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the main futures contract rising 29.00 yuan/ton to 2352 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changing by 17 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Given its low current valuation and improved future outlook, with geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes varied, with the overall basis at - 67 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract rising 18 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, short on rallies [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector showed a volatile rebound. There were different views on natural rubber from bulls and bears. As of January 22, 2026, tire enterprise operating rates and rubber inventories were reported. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed [10][11][12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 18 yuan to 4895 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Cost - end prices and production and demand - end data also changed, such as a decline in overall production rate and an increase in social inventory [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: There were changes in the prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as changes in upstream and downstream operating rates and port inventories. For example, the upstream operating rate of pure benzene decreased by 1.23% to 69.63%, and the port inventory of styrene increased by 0.71 million tons to 10.06 million tons [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: As styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 82 yuan/ton to 7049 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate increased by 1.23% to 81.56%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 92 yuan/ton to 6870 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly by 0.01% to 76.61%, and various inventories decreased [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 12 yuan to 7380 yuan, with changes in CFR price, basis, 3 - 5 spread, etc. PX and PTA operating rates and inventory data were also reported. For example, China's PX operating rate increased by 0.3% to 89.2% [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 38 yuan to 5332 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. PTA and downstream operating rates and inventory data were reported. The downstream operating rate decreased by 1.7% to 84.7% [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 13 yuan to 3957 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Supply - and demand - end operating rates and inventory data were reported. The supply - end operating rate increased by 1.4% to 74.4%, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 million tons [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with London gold dropping over 5% at one point and closing down 0.7%, while London silver fell over 8% and closed down 1.11% [1] - Market analysts believe that the long-term upward trend for gold prices remains intact despite short-term adjustments, with potential for further increases in the medium term [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent surge in precious metals is the weakening of the US dollar credit system and the maintenance of low-interest policies by global sovereign nations, which enhances the safe-haven value of non-yielding assets [1] Group 2: US Stock Market - The US stock market saw a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2.5% and closing down 0.72%, while the S&P 500 fell nearly 1.5% and closed down 0.13% [2] - Technology stocks led the decline, with Microsoft experiencing a significant drop of 12%, raising concerns about whether demand for artificial intelligence can support substantial capital expenditures [2] - Bitcoin fell below $86,000, down over 3.95%, while Ethereum and Dogecoin also saw declines of 5.67% and 6.66%, respectively, amid a broader retreat in risk assets [2] Group 3: Oil Market - International oil prices surged, with ICE Brent crude rising nearly 4% and breaking the $70 per barrel mark for the first time since September of the previous year, while WTI crude closed at $65.59 per barrel [2] Group 4: US Trade Data - The latest trade data revealed that the US international trade deficit for November 2025 was $56.8 billion, significantly higher than the revised $29.2 billion in October, with exports at $292.1 billion and imports at $348.9 billion [2] Group 5: US Unemployment Claims - The initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 were reported at 209,000, slightly above the expected 205,000, with the previous value revised from 200,000 to 210,000 [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced a sharp decline after reaching high levels, with London gold dropping over 5% intraday and closing down 0.7%, while London silver fell over 8% intraday and closed down 1.11% [3][12] - Despite the recent drop, the long-term upward trend for gold prices remains intact, with expectations for further increases in the medium term, although short-term pullback risks should be monitored [3][12] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing global central bank easing cycle, led by the Federal Reserve, is likely to support gold prices, with potential for a new round of increases in the metals market around June 2026 [3][13] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw significant declines, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 2.5% at one point, and closing down 0.72%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.11% [4][12] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of demand for artificial intelligence have led to a notable drop in technology stocks, with Microsoft experiencing a 12% decline [4][12] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices surged, with ICE Brent crude rising nearly 4% and surpassing $70 per barrel for the first time since September of the previous year, while WTI crude closed at $65.59 per barrel [5][12] - Recent U.S. trade data indicated a significant increase in the trade deficit, which may impact economic conditions and oil demand [5][14] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. jobless claims data showed an increase to 209,000, slightly above expectations, indicating potential labor market challenges [5][14] - The U.S. trade deficit for November 2025 was reported at $56.8 billion, a substantial increase from the previous month, reflecting a decline in exports and an increase in imports [5][14]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry continued to be strong today supported by crude oil at the cost - end, with the short - term performance affected by the Iran geopolitical situation [1][2] - The short - term fundamentals of crude oil are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose, but the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations declined, demand weakened, and EIA weekly inventories increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose. However, the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium. The subsequent geopolitical situation may evolve in three ways, with the first two being the key points of concern [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose above the shock upper limit of 460 today, and the short - term structure turned to the long side. The short - term support below is at the 460 level. The strategy for the hourly cycle is to wait and see [4] (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors led to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant expansion of profits, there is a pressure for the accelerated recovery and increased load of maintenance devices in the medium term. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction of positions at high levels [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and reached a new high today, with the short - term support at the 7530 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [6] (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space of pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the passive upward space brought by the rising profit of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The medium - term overseas demand is weak, and the domestic import pressure is the biggest negative factor. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 5930 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [10] (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the fundamentals of natural rubber. Its rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase of synthetic rubber prices and runs passively following synthetic rubber [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 16080 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [14] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, but the cold wave in Europe and the United States has promoted the rise of overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices, leading to a contraction of overseas butadiene supply and an increase in international butadiene prices. Short - term cost - push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [19] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 12800 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [19] (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the medium term before the new production capacity is put into operation in the third quarter, but the market has started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic of the decline in textile polyester in the short term, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with a wide - range interval of 7050 - 7500 at the hourly - level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22] (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak, with seasonal inventory increase due to weak demand in the off - season and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in the downstream. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly - level has come to an end. It fluctuated within the day today. The pressure at the 5370 level in the 15 - minute decline is temporarily effective. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [24] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [26] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6650 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [26] (9) Methanol - Logic: The port has started seasonal inventory reduction, but the fundamentals are weak due to the extremely high inventory level compared with the same period and the negative feedback of early parking and load reduction of MTO devices. However, the Iran geopolitical sentiment has heated up again recently, and the short - term trading of geopolitical sentiment on the disk and the large capital inflow into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term decline and a short - term upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, testing the previous high but failing. The short - term support below is at the 2255 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The situation of high production, high inventory, and weak demand remains. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short term, but the upward pressure is still huge [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [33] (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The domestic fundamentals are still weak, with seasonal inventory increase pressure, high supply operation, and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term support at the 3825 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [35] (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6815 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash still feature high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, with the surplus pattern continuing. Although the soda ash production has slightly decreased this week, it is still at the highest level in history compared with the same period and the previous period, and the pressure of new production capacity release is still high. The total demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly decreased due to the downstream replenishment demand before the festival, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared with the same period last year. Without unexpected policies, the premium of the far - month contracts of soda ash is expected to be gradually downward - repaired, and a short - selling idea is maintained for the 05 contract [40] - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level may have come to an end. It increased in volume and rose today, and the closing price stood above the short - term pressure of 1215 at the end of the session. The short - term decline may have ended. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see after stopping the loss of short positions [41][43] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation) in caustic soda remains. With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues, and it is difficult to see a reversal [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term pressure at the 2000 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see, and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns to the long side [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating upward, and closing sharply higher on Thursday. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Thursday. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks, methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating upward, and rising sharply on Thursday. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium has rebounded, and short - term oil prices will maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.45 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.03%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.95% [8]. - In the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [8]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, with a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - In the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 83,300 tons [10]. - In the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 25.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was 84.70%, a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [10]. - In the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 111,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 255,600 tons. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory was 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,100 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 119,200 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 63 [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 8.628 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 278,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 515,000 barrels [12]. - The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 20,664 contracts and an increase of 20,021 contracts from the December average, an increase of 34.07%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 12,405 contracts and an increase of 100,312 contracts from the December average, an increase of 95.12% [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 16,250 yuan/ton | +300 yuan/ton | 16,690 yuan/ton | +330 yuan/ton | - 440 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,325 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | 2,352 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | - 27 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 441.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 472.5 yuan/barrel | +12.2 yuan/barrel | - 31.6 yuan/barrel | - 12.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - spread, inventory, and net position changes [15][21][40]