1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the temporary supply - demand mismatch, the LPG market shows a tight fundamental situation and is oscillating strongly. However, in the medium - term, the supply elasticity of LPG is greater than the demand elasticity. Without large - scale supply disruptions, the supply will be abundant. The supply from the US and the Middle East is expected to grow, while the demand growth in Asia - Pacific countries is restricted by the weak profit of downstream devices. Overall, the global LPG market may continue the oversupply pattern in 2026, but geopolitical conflicts and weather may cause temporary supply - demand mismatches [6][127]. - Based on the decline of the oil price center and the expected oversupply of global LPG, there will be resistance to the upward movement of LPG prices in 2026. After the short - term strong oscillation caused by supply - demand mismatch, opportunities for shorting on rallies can be considered, and the registration of new warehouse receipts after the price rebound on the futures market should be monitored. Recently, the strong cracking spread of naphtha has made LPG more cost - effective, driving the substitution demand of some cracking devices. But if the Russia - Ukraine situation eases and sanctions are relaxed, the supply of Russian naphtha may increase, which could suppress the naphtha cracking spread and have an indirect negative impact on LPG valuation [7][128]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Supply - demand Imbalance in the Oil Market and Resistance to Oil Prices - In 2025, international oil prices were in a wide - range oscillating and declining trend. Taking Brent as a reference, the price center has moved down compared to last year. As of November 25, 2025, the average price of the Brent futures main contract was $68.87 per barrel, a 13.76% decrease from the average price in 2024 [14]. - In 2026, the oil market is expected to face downward pressure. The growth elasticity of oil demand has significantly decreased and cannot offset the release of surplus supply capacity. China's oil demand growth has slowed down, and the global oil consumption has entered a stage of low - growth. Although the supply growth rate will slow down next year, it is still expected to exceed demand, leading to an increase in global oil inventories [15]. 3.2 Weak Oscillation in the 2025 LPG Market and Tariff Disturbances - In 2025, the LPG market was in a weak oscillating pattern. The price center moved down due to the decline in oil prices. The Sino - US tariff conflict caused additional disturbances, mainly resulting in regional price differences rather than global trends [29]. - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was oscillating. Although there were some disturbances such as Middle - East device maintenance and US shipping delays, the impact was limited. The downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific region was weak, and there was no obvious supply shortage [29]. - In Q2 2025, the Sino - US tariff conflict led to a significant change in the trade pattern. China reduced its procurement from the US and turned to the Middle East. The supply - demand imbalance between the US and non - US sources supported the CP price and caused the FEI price to drop. After the tariff was reduced, the domestic market still had a wait - and - see attitude. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict in June also had a short - term impact on the LPG market [30]. - In Q3 2025, the LPG market was relatively stable, and the supply - demand imbalance continued [31]. - In Q4 2025, the Sino - US tariff issue resurfaced, but the impact on the market was smaller than in April. The supply in the Middle East decreased due to refinery maintenance, and the demand in India and Southeast Asia increased during the peak season, which supported the LPG price. However, the weak profit of domestic downstream chemical industries limited the upward movement of the domestic market [32]. 3.3 Continued Oversupply of Global LPG in 2026 and the Reshaping of Trade Flows 3.3.1 Growth in Middle - East LPG Supply - OPEC has gradually withdrawn from the production - cut agreement, and the LPG supply in the Middle East is expected to grow. Although the actual production increase may be different from the quota increase, the overall trend is upward. The UAE is promoting natural - gas field development projects, which will contribute to the growth of NGL supply. In 2026, the LPG supply in the Middle East is expected to increase year - on - year [47]. - In the short - term, the supply in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait has tightened due to refinery maintenance, but it is expected to return to the growth track after the maintenance is completed. Saudi Arabia will face more competition from the US, which may suppress the CP pricing in the medium - term. The US sanctions on Iran have increased, but the LPG supply in Iran has not been significantly affected [48][49]. 3.3.2 Growth in US LPG Supply - The production of NGL and LPG in the US has continued to grow in recent years. In 2025, the LPG export volume increased, and the export capacity has been improved through terminal expansion projects. Although there was a potential device failure in December 2025, it is not expected to affect the long - term supply trend [66]. - In 2026, the growth trend of US shale - gas production is expected to continue, and the production of NGL and LPG is also expected to increase. The expansion of export terminals will further enhance the export capacity [67]. 3.3.3 Reshaping of LPG Trade Flows - After the Sino - US tariff conflict in April 2025, China reduced its imports from the US and increased imports from the Middle East. Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and India increased their imports from the US. India signed a long - term LPG procurement agreement with the US, which will affect the CP and FEI pricing [85][86]. 3.3.4 Increase in Russian LPG Supply to China - In recent years, China's imports of LPG from Russia have been increasing. From January to November 2025, the import volume exceeded 700,000 tons, a 63.8% increase compared to the previous year. Although the absolute volume is limited by transportation bottlenecks, it has become an important marginal increment, especially for the Northeast region [102]. 3.3.5 Constraints on the Growth of China's LPG Demand - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the commissioning of downstream chemical devices (mainly PDH). In 2026, about 3.75 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be put into operation, which may contribute about 2.8 million tons of propane demand. However, the weak profit of the PDH industry has restricted the start - up of existing devices and the commissioning of new ones, so the actual demand growth may be lower than expected [105]. - Other devices such as ethylene - cracking also have potential for growth, but the low profit restricts the endogenous demand growth. The demand for LPG in the combustion sector lacks growth potential, and the demand growth in 2026 will still be mainly driven by the chemical downstream, with profit being the main limiting factor [107].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market shows that the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) has a PE of 21.0x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 38th historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.8x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 42nd percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.2x and a PB of 5.1x, at the 30th and 56th percentiles [2] - The STAR 50 Index has a PE of 149.7x and a PB of 5.9x, at the 95th and 62nd percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices increased by 7.0%, while the average price of silicon wafers fell by 3.1% [2] - Battery materials saw cobalt prices rise by 1.1% and nickel by 2.4%, with lithium hexafluorophosphate prices increasing by 6.7% [2] - Wind and solar power installations from January to October 2025 increased by 52.9% and 39.5% year-on-year, respectively [2] Financial Sector - Insurance premiums from January to October 2025 grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration compared to the previous nine months [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.9%, while the price index for cement fell by 0.7% [2] - Glass prices rose by 1.5% for spot prices and 5.7% for futures [2] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.9%, while the wholesale price of pork fell by 0.4% [2] - The price index for liquor saw a slight increase of 0.04% [2] Midstream Manufacturing - The value of overseas contracted engineering projects increased by 7.9% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [2] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.19 per barrel [2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 12.5% [2]

Core Points - The trade war initiated by the U.S. against China has escalated significantly, with both countries imposing tariffs on each other's goods, impacting global trade dynamics [1][3][5][7] - China's response to U.S. tariffs has been strategic and coordinated, targeting key industries such as energy, automotive, and high-tech sectors, demonstrating its resilience and ability to counteract U.S. measures [3][5][7] - The trade conflict has led to a shift in global supply chains, with companies increasingly looking towards ASEAN countries to mitigate risks associated with U.S.-China tensions [5][7] Summary by Category Tariff Measures - The U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods, which was later increased to 20% and then 34% [1][5] - China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, and agricultural products, including a 10% to 15% tariff on U.S. soybeans, directly affecting American farmers [3][5] Strategic Responses - China implemented export controls on critical minerals essential for military and high-tech industries, impacting U.S. missile and chip production [3][5] - The Chinese government placed U.S. companies like PVH Group on an unreliable entity list, restricting their market access [3][5] Global Trade Impact - The trade war has resulted in a 1% reduction in global trade, with the most vulnerable countries suffering the most [5][7] - The conflict has highlighted the limitations of unilateral trade policies, as U.S. allies like the EU and Japan have not joined in the actions against China [7] Long-term Implications - The trade war reflects deeper issues within the U.S. economy, such as manufacturing hollowing out and rising debt, while underestimating China's strategic resilience [7] - The ongoing conflict is pushing the global economic landscape towards multipolarity, challenging the effectiveness of unilateralism [7]

美国年终购物季开启，美联储降息预期重燃提振风险偏好。 本周国际市场风云变幻，美国年终购物季开启，美联储降息预期重燃提振风险偏好。美股强劲反弹，道指周涨3.18%，纳指周涨4.91%，标普500指数周涨 3.73%，欧洲三大股指走高，英国富时100指数周涨1.80%，德国DAX 30指数周涨3.23%，法国CAC 40指数周涨1.75%。 下周看点颇多，美国供应管理协会（ISM）发布的制造业与服务业活动调查数据，以及最新的自动数据处理公司（ADP）私营部门就业报告将受到市场密切 关注，这些数据是判断美联储是否可能在下次会议上降息的重要依据。欧洲方面，欧元区通胀数据将成为投资者评估未来政策路径的重要参考。此外，产油 国联盟（OPEC+）会否决定维持产量、俄乌和谈走向都牵动着原油市场神经。 美国这些数据将出炉 荷兰国际集团（ING）经济学家奈特利（James Knightley）在一份报告中表示："继关键官员近期的表态以及喜忧参半的就业报告之后，市场再次强烈预期美 联储将连续第三次降息25个基点。即将公布的数据很可能会强化这一观点。从区域调查数据来看，ISM制造业指数预计将继续处于收缩区间，而ISM服务业 指数则有 ...

大家好，我是阿凯。 今天的全球市场简直像唱了出"分裂大戏". 一边是白银、铜价蹭蹭往上涨，突破了不少人以为的天花板；另一边美股涨得热火朝天，科技股带头冲 锋。 不光是白银，黄金也跟着沾光，价格稳中有升，创下了近期的新高。 更让人意外的是工业用的铜，价格也跟着涨了不少，刷新了历史纪录。 除了这俩，铝、锡这些金属价格也大多在涨，整个金属市场一片热闹。 说句实在话，这波涨势早有苗头。 最关键的原因是大家都觉得美联储12月可能要降息了，钱存在银行利息没那么吸引人，不少人就把钱转 去买金属这类实物资产，最近白银相关的基金都涌进了不少钱。 可原油却蔫了吧唧，连着跌了四个月。 手里有理财、炒股的朋友估计都看懵了：这市场到底在搞啥？ 金属飙涨：白银成"香饽饽" 11月29号这一天，金属市场算是彻底火了，尤其是白银，简直成了投资圈的"香饽饽"。 早上开盘没多久就一路往上冲，到收盘的时候，价格比前一天涨了不少，直接越过了10月份刚创下的高 点，不少提前布局的投资者都赚了一笔。 再加上铜的供应一直紧张，之前智利铜矿罢工刚结束，秘鲁的矿场又出了纠纷，短期内缺口补不上，价 格自然降不下来。 智利铜矿罢工 美股飘红：科技股挑大梁 这边金 ...

Group 1 - On November 28, U.S. stock markets experienced a recovery after a previous decline, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.61%, S&P 500 by 0.54%, and Nasdaq by 0.65% [1] - In November, the Nasdaq index faced pressure, declining by 1.51%, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 saw modest increases of 0.32% and 0.13% respectively, marking their seventh consecutive month of gains [2] - European stock indices rose on November 28, supported by optimistic economic data, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.27%, CAC 40 by 0.29%, and DAX by 0.29% [3] Group 2 - International oil prices experienced a slight decline on November 28, marking the fourth consecutive month of decreases, with WTI crude futures down by 3.98% and Brent crude by 2.87% in November [4] - Silver prices surged significantly on November 28, with spot silver reaching over $56 per ounce and New York silver futures rising by 6.6% to $57.16 per ounce [5] - Gold prices increased on November 28, with February futures rising by 1.25%, and the overall increase for November was nearly 6.5%, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - International gold prices increased by 4.3% in the past week, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains in November, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a declining dollar index [1][7] - The main contract for New York gold futures rose by approximately 6.5% in November, supported by safe-haven buying and increased gold purchases by central banks globally [1][7] Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices saw a significant increase, with spot silver prices reaching over $56 per ounce, setting a new historical record, and New York silver futures for March delivery closing at $57.16, reflecting a 6.6% rise [6] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Trends - The U.S. stock market showed stability on the last trading day of November, with major indices rising, as the Dow Jones increased by 0.61%, the S&P 500 by 0.54%, and the Nasdaq by 0.65% [2] - In November, the Nasdaq experienced a decline of 1.51%, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices rose by 0.32% and 0.13%, respectively, marking their seventh consecutive month of gains [3] Group 4: European Market Developments - European stock indices rose across the board, buoyed by optimistic economic data, with the UK FTSE 100 up by 0.27%, France's CAC 40 by 0.29%, and Germany's DAX by 0.29% [4] Group 5: Oil Market Overview - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, marking the fourth consecutive month of decreases, with New York crude futures and Brent crude futures down by 3.98% and 2.87% respectively in November [5]

Market Overview - On November 28, U.S. stock markets closed early with all three major indices rising, driven by a rebound in technology stocks, particularly Intel, which surged over 10%, marking its best single-day performance since September 18 [1][7] - The three major indices saw significant weekly gains, with the Dow Jones increasing by 3.18%, the S&P 500 rising by 3.73%, and the Nasdaq gaining 4.91% [2][5] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 289.30 points, or 0.61%, closing at 47,716.42 points; the Nasdaq increased by 151.00 points, or 0.65%, to 23,365.69 points; and the S&P 500 gained 36.48 points, or 0.54%, finishing at 6,849.09 points [3] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Facebook up over 2%, Amazon increasing by more than 1%, Microsoft rising over 1%, and Tesla gaining 0.84%. However, Nvidia saw a decline of over 1% [8] - Semiconductor stocks experienced a broad increase, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 1.82%. Intel's stock rose over 10%, while Micron Technology increased by more than 2% [9][10] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month, closing at $58.55 per barrel, marking the longest monthly decline since March 2023 [12][13] - Silver and copper prices reached record highs, with silver rising by 5.7% to $56.46 per ounce and copper climbing to $11,210.50 per ton, although it later narrowed its gains [14][15]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 289.30 points (0.61%) to 47,716.42, the Nasdaq up by 151.00 points (0.65%) to 23,365.69, and the S&P 500 gaining 36.48 points (0.54%) to 6,849.09 [2] - For the week, all three indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 3.18%, the S&P 500 rising 3.73%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 4.91% [2] Technology Sector - Intel's stock surged over 10%, marking its best single-day performance since September 18 [1][4] - Other major tech stocks also saw gains, including Facebook (up over 2%), Amazon (up over 1%), Microsoft (up over 1%), and Tesla (up 0.84%) [4] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.82%, with notable increases in stocks like Micron Technology (up over 2%) and ARM (up over 2%) [5][6] Commodities - WTI crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month, closing at $58.55 per barrel, marking the longest monthly decline since March 2023 [8] - Silver and copper prices reached record highs, with silver rising 5.7% to $56.46 per ounce and copper climbing 2.5% to $11,210.50 per ton before settling up 2.2% [9]

Market Overview - On November 28, US stock markets closed early with all three major indices rising, driven by a rebound in technology stocks, particularly Intel, which surged over 10%, marking its best single-day performance since September 18 [2][4][9] - The three major indices saw significant weekly gains, with the Dow Jones increasing by 3.18%, the S&P 500 rising by 3.73%, and the Nasdaq gaining 4.91% [6] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 289.30 points, or 0.61%, closing at 47,716.42 points; the Nasdaq increased by 151.00 points, or 0.65%, to 23,365.69 points; and the S&P 500 gained 36.48 points, or 0.54%, ending at 6,849.09 points [4][6] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Facebook up over 2%, Amazon increasing by more than 1%, and Microsoft rising over 1%. However, Nvidia saw a decline of over 1% [10] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.82%, with notable gains in semiconductor stocks such as Intel, which rose over 10%, and Micron Technology, which increased by over 2% [11][12] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month, closing at $58.55 per barrel, marking the longest monthly decline since March 2023 [14][15] - Metal prices surged significantly, with silver reaching a record high of $56.46 per ounce after a 5.7% increase, and copper hitting a record high of $11,210.50 per ton, although it later narrowed its gains [16]