Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during the March meeting, with a downward adjustment in growth and upward adjustment in inflation forecasts, while keeping the rate cut guidance unchanged [2][3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, but it is not anticipated to significantly alter the Fed's guidance [2] Policy Insights - The recent "Two Sessions" in China have focused on modernizing the industrial system, technological innovation, and expanding domestic demand, with no explicit GDP growth target set in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The State Council has outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need to respond better to external shocks and challenges [2] Technology Sector - At the GTC 2026 conference, NVIDIA's CEO announced the release of Groq 3 LPU and highlighted the unexpected demand for OpenClaw, which is expected to boost demand for devices like Mac Mini and x86 laptops [4] - The data center revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to exceed $1 trillion, enhancing confidence in the growth prospects for companies like TSMC and Hon Hai [4] Consumer Sector - In January-February, China's retail sales increased by 2.8% year-on-year to 8.6 trillion yuan, driven by the long Spring Festival holiday and consumption promotion policies [5] - The government has introduced special bonds to support the replacement of consumer goods, indicating a focus on quality improvement and category upgrades [5] Transportation Sector - In January-February, domestic airlines experienced a rise in both volume and price, with passenger load factors increasing to 85.3% [6] - The industry is expected to see improved profitability as supply-demand fundamentals remain favorable, despite short-term oil price fluctuations [6] Media and Gaming Sector - Apple has reduced the commission rate for in-app purchases from 30% to 25%, which is expected to enhance profit margins for game developers [7] - This change is part of a broader trend towards lowering channel fees, benefiting the gaming industry's sustainable growth [7] Company-Specific Insights - Midea Group has been rated "Buy" with a target price of 109.42 HKD, focusing on its transformation into a technology-driven growth company [11] - Datang Power has also been rated "Buy," with a target price of 5.06 CNY, benefiting from its diversified energy operations [12] - The performance of China Light and Power is stable, with a projected dividend yield of 4.7% and a focus on capital expenditure to enhance profitability [13] - The performance of Yueda Group is under pressure, but its core IP business remains resilient, maintaining a "Buy" rating [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Oscillating operation" [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to oscillate upward due to rising costs, and the industry is expected to operate in an oscillating manner. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Environment - In 2026, the Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects such as supporting the construction of a strong domestic market and accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance. The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign - funded projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion, mainly in the manufacturing industry. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two important" and "two new" and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects [2] Industry Data - On March 17, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,396 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton, and the average profit was a loss of 81 yuan/ton [2] Market Performance - The finished steel oscillated yesterday. In recent days, the daily K - line has shown small positive lines, and the price center has been continuously rising. The rise in raw materials provides cost - side support for steel prices, and the rise in the black market is also driven by inflation on commodities as a whole. Attention should be paid to downstream demand for steel [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 57.994 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 6.17% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.867 billion RMB, an increase of 26.83%, exceeding expectations by 24.12% [1][4]. - Future prospects are optimistic due to the benefits from the "dual carbon" policy, which is expected to enhance industry conditions, alongside continuous product structure optimization leading to improved profitability [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company sold 2.8265 million tons of advanced steel materials, an increase of 8.09% year-on-year, accounting for 30.45% of total steel product sales, up by 3.71 percentage points [2]. - The total gross profit from these products was 3.004 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.37%, representing 48.15% of the total gross profit from steel products, up by 1.59 percentage points [2]. - The company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 13.95%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost Management - The company has effectively reduced costs, with raw material processing costs decreasing by 1.063 billion RMB year-on-year, and the main business costs reduced by 11.5% compared to the previous year [2]. - The iron ore index and coke settlement prices increased by 1.8% and decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, respectively, contributing to the cost reduction [2]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry is expected to enter a recovery phase driven by supply constraints and policy support, with profitability potentially improving in 2026 [3]. - The company is well-positioned with a higher proportion of high-end products and effective cost management, suggesting its profitability elasticity may outperform the industry average [3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026-2028 are projected to be 0.47, 0.54, and 0.62 RMB, respectively, with upward adjustments of 4.44% and 10.20% for 2026 and 2027 compared to previous forecasts [4]. - The target price is set at 8.51 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.10X for 2026, reflecting the company's strong profitability stability [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on various futures markets. Uncertainties in supply, demand, and costs are driving market volatility. For example, the conflict has led to concerns about energy supply, which in turn affects the prices of commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, and metals [121][67]. - Different sectors show different trends based on their own fundamentals. For instance, in the agricultural sector, factors like supply and demand, harvest conditions, and policy changes influence prices. In the industrial sector, energy costs, production capacity, and market demand play crucial roles [26][56]. - Market sentiment is cautious due to the uncertainties brought by geopolitical conflicts. Investors are closely watching the development of the situation and adjusting their investment strategies accordingly [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Risk - aversion sentiment is rising. The market is affected by the Middle East situation and the performance of the AI sector. Indexes are expected to be volatile, and trading strategies include grid operations, IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and double - buying options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market has slightly stabilized. With the central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity, the market funds are in a narrow - range fluctuation. Short - term short positions are recommended to stop losses and then wait and see [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is uncertain, and the market is in a high - level shock. Fundamental factors are mostly negative, and trading strategies include short - term bearish unilateral operations, MRM09 spread narrowing arbitrage, and buying put options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are fluctuating. International sugar production is expected to be lower than previously estimated, while domestic sugar production is likely to increase. Trading strategies include short - term bullish unilateral operations and selling put options [30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils are expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus, and factors such as palm oil inventory and soybean arrival time affect the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The market is in a high - level shock. The increase in millet auctions and other factors influence the price. Trading strategies include a bullish view on the 05 corn contract on the external market and a high - level shock view on the domestic 05 corn contract [35][36][37]. - **Hogs**: The出栏 pressure is increasing, and prices are continuing to decline. Feed prices and high inventory levels are the main factors. Trading strategies include short - selling the near - month contract and LH59 reverse arbitrage [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is in a strong - level shock. The import volume has decreased, and the oil mill still has profits. Trading strategies include closing long positions in the 05 peanut contract and selling pk605 - P - 7700 options [40][41][42]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and egg prices are mainly stable. The market is in a consumption off - season, and it is recommended to short the June contract [43][45][46]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed is acceptable, and the price of high - quality goods is firm. The 5 - month contract is recommended to be exited and observed, and attention can be paid to the 10 - month contract [47][48][49]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is in a slightly bullish shock. The external market is rising, and domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices [50][51][52]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials provide support, and steel prices are in a shock. The downstream demand is seasonally recovering, but the inventory is still accumulating. The price is affected by overseas and raw material factors and is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts. The price is mainly affected by oil and gas prices, and it is recommended to take a cautious approach [60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply disturbance is increasing, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices for spot enterprises. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and seasonal factors, and the supply is relatively loose [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The energy cost is being transmitted, and the positive feedback continues. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon are in a positive feedback situation, and it is recommended to hold the remaining long positions [64][65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and gold and silver prices are under pressure and in a shock. The market is cautious due to the conflict and inflation concerns. It is recommended to wait and see for conservative investors and take a short - term bearish approach for aggressive investors [67][68][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Attention should be paid to whether secondary inflation affects the interest - rate cut path. The market is affected by energy - related inflation concerns and the FOMC meeting. It is recommended to wait and see and look for low - buying opportunities for platinum [71][72]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks continue to disturb, and copper prices are in a continuous shock. The supply and demand situation and the impact of the Middle East conflict on production are the main factors [74]. - **Alumina**: Concerns about the supply of bauxite in Guinea have increased the price volatility. The policy of Guinea is uncertain, and the price may be strong in the short term [75][78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a decrease in supply, and macro risks should be vigilant. The production reduction in the Middle East and Mozambique affects the market, and it is recommended to be bullish at low prices [80][82]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East affects the aluminum industry, and the price is affected by the aluminum price [83]. - **Zinc**: The domestic social inventory is continuously accumulating. The supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is insufficient. The price may be in a weak shock in the short term [84][85]. - **Lead**: The stop - loss line should be raised to protect profits. The social inventory is increasing, and the price is in a weak shock. It is recommended to hold long positions and raise the stop - loss line [87][89]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation. The price is affected by the copper price and the production situation of nickel mines. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize before considering long positions [90]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. The overseas manufacturing contraction and the cost of nickel mines affect the price. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize [95]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range shock. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a range [97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a short - term shock and waiting for policy guidance. The production is increasing, and the price is affected by the policy and market supply and demand [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is in a high - level shock. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [104]. - **Tin**: The situation in the US - Iran conflict is unclear, and the tin price is in a range shock. The supply from Myanmar and the impact of the Middle East conflict are the main factors [106][107]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's April first - week quotation has increased. The market is affected by fuel prices and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to wait and see [109][110]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The war in the Middle East continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur oils may significantly affect the market by ship type. The geopolitical conflict affects the fuel price and shipping cost, and the market is expected to be affected in the long - term [112][113]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The news of the expansion of the Chinese carbon market has spread, and the negative sentiment in the EU carbon market has affected the carbon price decline. The Chinese carbon market may be supported in the short - term, and the EU carbon market is expected to be in a shock [114][115][118]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The attack on Middle East energy facilities has increased supply concerns. The price is expected to be bullish at a high level [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The reduction of the main refineries' production has increased, and concerns about raw materials continue. The price is expected to be strong, but the demand is weak [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical drive continues, and the cost is in a high - level shock. The supply is expected to be tightened, and the demand in Singapore may increase [127][128]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation remains tense, and the price is in a strong - level shock. It follows the oil price, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk continues, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The supply in Qatar is affected, and the price is expected to rise [132][133][134]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock, and the risk of a decline should be guarded against [135][136][137]. - **BZ & EB**: The raw material supply is short, and the fundamentals are good. The price is affected by the supply from the Middle East, and the risk of a decline should be guarded against [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants are resuming production. The supply and demand structure is improving, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [141][142][143]. - **Short - fiber**: The sales are still weak. The production and sales are not good, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [144]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously decreasing. The production and delivery of some enterprises are uncertain, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [146][147]. - **Propylene**: The supply is tight. The cost is rising, and the supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [148][149]. - **Plastic PP**: The import profit of PP has reached a new low. The price of L and PP is affected by the macro situation and supply - demand factors. It is recommended to hold long positions and set stop - loss levels [150][151][153]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a shock. The supply is shrinking, the export is expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in a shock [154][155]. - **PVC**: It is firm at a high level. The supply is expected to decrease at home and abroad, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [157]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weak direction. The supply is increasing, and the demand is general. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock and weak [161][162]. - **Glass**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weak direction. The demand is affected by the real - estate market, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock and weak [163][164]. - **Methanol**: It is rising strongly. The production in Iran is affected, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long at low prices [165]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is gradually increasing. The price is expected to be in a shock [167]. - **Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the pulp price is weakly adjusted. The supply is greater than the demand, and the price is affected by the macro situation [172][173]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The sales are average, and the market is based on rigid demand. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the price is expected to be weak [176]. - **Logs**: The import cost is rising, supporting the upward movement of the market. The cost is rising, but the supply - demand balance limits the increase [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: The national dry - rubber inventory is continuously increasing. The inventory increase is a negative factor, and it is recommended to wait and see [182][185]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The profit of butadiene is continuously improving. The profit increase is a positive factor, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [188][189][190].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but includes individual commodity trend strengths, such as strong (2), moderately strong (1), neutral (0), moderately weak (-1), and weak (-2) [72][75][85] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and trends of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors significantly influence commodity prices [72][104][137] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose 1.02%, and London gold spot rose 0.63%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction. The price of Comex silver 2602 rose 1.78%, and London silver spot rose 1.86%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Platinum**: Continuously monitor the support at the current level. The price of platinum futures 2606 rose 3.73%. The trend strength is 0 [25] - **Palladium**: There was a significant outflow from ETF holdings. The price of palladium futures 2606 rose 2.31%. The trend strength is 0 [25] Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase is pressuring prices. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fell 0.30%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk fell 1.07%. The trend strength is 0 [2][10] - **Zinc**: Facing headwinds in the real - world situation. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract fell 0.86%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk fell 0.44%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][13] - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventory supports prices. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose 1.75%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.16%. The trend strength is 0 [2][16] - **Tin**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.63%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk fell 0.97%. The trend strength is 0 [2][20] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 180. The trend strength is 0 [23] - **Nickel**: The accumulation of smelting inventory and macro - sentiment resonate, while the shortage at the mine end supports the downside. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 460. The trend strength is 0 [30] - **Stainless Steel**: Fundamentals and macro - factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support. The price of the stainless - steel main contract fell 25. The trend strength is 0 [30] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have a significant impact on energy - related commodities [137] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coking coal 2605 contract fell 5. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Coke**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coke 2605 contract fell 14. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Steam Coal**: Prices in the producing areas are rising, and the decline at ports is slowing. The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 coal remained unchanged at 585. The trend strength is - 1 [62] - **Fuel Oil**: Narrow - range adjustment, with prices remaining high in the short term. The price of the fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.67%. The trend strength is 0 [129] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rose at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounded. The price of the low - sulfur fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.26%. The trend strength is 1 [129] Agricultural Products - **Grains**: - **Corn**: Trading in a range. The price of the corn 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [161] - **Soybeans**: - **Soybean Meal**: The market sentiment is recovering, and Dalian soybean meal may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [157] - **Soybean**: The spot price in the producing areas is stable, and the futures price may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean 2605 contract rose 0.02%. The trend strength is 0 [158] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: There are frequent speculative themes, and it remains strong in the short term. The price of the palm oil main contract fell 0.56%. The trend strength is 1 [151] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from the soybean complex is limited. Attention should be paid to the China - US consultation process. The price of the soybean oil main contract fell 0.83%. The trend strength is 0 [151] - **Others**: - **Eggs**: Trading in a range. The price of the egg 2604 contract fell 0.46%. The trend strength is 0 [176] - **Hogs**: De - stocking and weight - reduction will start, and the duration may exceed expectations. The price of the hog 2605 contract fell 115. The trend strength is - 2 [179] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The price of the peanut 604 contract rose 0.15%. The trend strength is 0 [184] Chemical Products - **Aromatics and Derivatives**: - **Para - Xylene**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PX main contract fell 1.59%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **PTA**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PTA main contract fell 0.92%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **MEG**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the MEG main contract fell 1.45%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **Styrene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the styrene 2605 contract rose 101. The trend strength is 1 [109] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the pure benzene 2605 contract fell 10. The trend strength is 1 [148] - **Polyolefins**: - **LLDPE**: Cracking supply is contracting, and downstream resistance to high prices is emerging. The price of the LLDPE 2605 contract fell 2.09%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **PP**: The supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, and exports continue to be favorable. The price of the PP 2605 contract fell 2.10%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **Others**: - **Caustic Soda**: The futures premium is relatively large, and the market is oscillating widely. The price of the caustic soda 05 contract is 2523. The trend strength is 0 [87] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating weakly. The price of the paper pulp main contract fell 144. The trend strength is - 1 [91] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of the glass 605 contract fell 1.97%. The trend strength is 0 [97] - **Methanol**: Running strongly. The price of the methanol main contract rose 10. The trend strength is 1 [100] - **Urea**: Oscillating widely, with fundamentals supporting prices. The price of the urea 05 contract fell 22. The trend strength is 0 [106] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of the soda ash 2605 contract fell 1.43%. The trend strength is 1 [112] - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end may lead to a supply reduction. The price of the propylene 2604 contract fell 2.14%. The trend strength is 1 [117] - **PVC**: Adjusting in the short term. The price of the PVC 05 contract is 5901. The trend strength is 0 [125] Others - **Logs**: The cost is rising, and prices are increasing. The price of the log 2605 contract rose 0.4%. The trend strength is 0 [64] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment disturbances. The price of the EC2604 contract fell 0.04%. The trend strength is 1 [131] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: High - level fluctuations, with strong cost - driven factors. The price of the short - fiber 2604 contract fell 20, and the price of the bottle - chip 2604 contract fell 348. The trend strength is 1 [141] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The price of the 70g Tianyang paper in the Shandong market remained unchanged at 4500. The trend strength is 0 [144] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is strengthening, and it is oscillating strongly. The price of the sugar futures main contract fell 66. The trend strength is 1 [165] - **Cotton**: Temporarily showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The price of the CF2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 1 [169]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content found Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report provides daily spot prices of different types of steel (including rebar and hot-rolled/cold-rolled coils) in various regions from March 11 - March 17, 2026, and shows the price changes during this period [1] Production and Inventory - No relevant content found Basis and Spread - No relevant content found

Report Information - Report Title: Scrap Steel Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: March 18, 2026 [1] Price Data - Scrap steel prices in different regions from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented, including East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China [2] - The环比 (month - on - month change) shows that prices in East China increased by 1, decreased by 1 in North China, increased by 3 in Central China, increased by 8 in South China, and remained unchanged in Northeast and Southwest China [2]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.26%[3] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.19%[3] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.83%[3] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector saw a gain of 1.99%[3] - The steel industry experienced a decline of 3.16%[3] - The storage index surged by 5.52%[3] Economic Events - US-China trade talks commenced in Paris, potentially benefiting bilateral trade relations[5] - Central banks, including the Fed and ECB, are set to announce interest rate decisions, which may influence market dynamics[5] - Rising oil prices, currently around $100 per barrel, are attributed to geopolitical tensions[5] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer spending increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while service consumption rose by 1.1%[7] - Capital investment in advanced manufacturing and AI sectors has significantly increased[7] Market Outlook - A-shares are expected to show mixed performance, with storage and advanced packaging sectors performing well[8] - Market movements will likely depend on policy expectations and capital flows, particularly from foreign investors[8]

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for January-February 2026 shows that the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.3% and the 2025 annual growth of 5.9% [4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5% and the 2025 annual growth of 3.7% [4] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, contrasting with the expected decline of 5.1% and the 2025 annual decline of 3.8% [4] Production and Consumption Insights - The production of large-scale industries continues to maintain a favorable trend, with significant support from external demand, particularly in specialized and electronic equipment sectors [5] - The service sector experienced a slight recovery in production growth due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, although overall consumption remains structurally divided [5] - Fixed asset investment rebounded significantly, with manufacturing investment growth rising to 3.1%, driven by high export growth and technological upgrades in certain industries [6] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment showed a robust rebound, with significant positive growth in public utilities and transportation sectors, supported by fiscal policies and special bond issuance [6] - Real estate sales showed a decline in both area and value compared to the end of last year, with first-tier cities experiencing slight price increases, but overall investment remains weak [6] Fixed Income Research - The credit bond issuance saw a growth in scale, with a net financing increase, while corporate bonds faced zero issuance [9] - The yield on credit bonds displayed divergence, with short-term yields declining and long-term yields rising, indicating a mixed market sentiment [9] - The government work report emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to positively influence bond valuations as market signals of stabilization emerge [10] Industry Research - The steel industry is expected to see limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with prices likely to fluctuate in the short term [14] - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and oil prices, with a focus on geopolitical developments affecting supply [14] - The aluminum market is primarily affected by geopolitical factors, with supply tightening expected to support prices [14] - The lithium market is experiencing mixed factors, with strong demand supporting prices while domestic supply recovery and macroeconomic fluctuations exert downward pressure [14] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals industries, with specific companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongjin Gold receiving "overweight" ratings [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "oscillating and slightly bullish" for the hot - rolled coil industry [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The hot - rolled coil market is expected to continue to operate in an oscillating and slightly bullish manner. Although the supply pressure is relieved due to production cuts, the demand has not fully recovered, and the high inventory still forms a pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory removal rhythm [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Tuesday decreased compared with the previous trading day, with a reduction of 3908 lots in open interest. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average of around 3290 again, the 30 - day moving average was 3251, and the medium - term pressure was around the 60 - day moving average of 3267 [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was 33 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 295.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.85 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.39 million tons. Steel mills actively reduced production, and the supply - side pressure was relieved [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 295.36 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 13.79 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35.99 million tons. The weekly apparent demand rebounded, but it was still weak year - on - year, and the demand had not formed a continuous warming trend [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 382.31 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 50.41 million tons, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 89.28 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons, indicating inventory reduction in the factory. The total inventory was 471.59 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.37 million tons. The total inventory increased significantly year - on - year, the social inventory accumulated obviously, the inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, and the market inventory removal pressure was not fundamentally relieved [4] - **Policy side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence of the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not improved substantially, and it still takes time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strengthening of raw materials [5] - **Bearish factors**: Slow realization of demand, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - disturbances [5] Short - term View Summary - The main hot - rolled coil contract oscillated with shrinking volume and closed up on Tuesday. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The short - term support was near the 5 - day moving average, and the pressure should be noted near the previous pressure platform. Fundamentally, affected by the Middle East event, raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal are strong, providing strong cost support. The production decline has relieved the supply pressure, and the apparent demand has continued to rebound after the Spring Festival, but it is still at a low level in recent years. Attention should be paid to its sustainability. The high inventory forms a pressure, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory removal rhythm [5]