. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the entire有色金属 industry. Instead, it offers specific trading strategies for different metals, which can be considered as implicit investment suggestions for each metal sub - sector. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It notes that market risk sentiment has improved due to potential trade agreements, but US macro - data is mixed, affecting the dollar and metal prices. For most metals, it believes that current prices are in an adjustment phase after a period of movement, with varying degrees of uncertainty in future supply and demand and price trends [3]. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose 1.98% to $3239.6/oz, London silver rose 1.3% to $32.63/oz. The US dollar index fell 0.16% to 100.88, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.449%. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.2067 [2]. - **Important News**: Japan seeks a third - round US - Japan trade negotiation, and the EU and the US will accelerate trade talks. US macro - data shows mixed results, with the 4 - month retail sales rate at 0.1%, and the 4 - month PPI annual rate at 2.4%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 91.7% [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk premium of precious metals may be cleared in the short term, but considering inflation and trade uncertainties, they are in an adjustment phase after a rapid rise [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips with light positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper closed at $9600, up $8 or 0.08%. LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,600 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1523 short tons to 168,563 short tons [5]. - **Important News**: US April PPI decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment supports prices. After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US scrap copper imports may flow back to China. The scrap - refined copper spread has decreased, and some enterprises have cut production. Copper inventory has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the text. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session alumina 2509 contract rose to 2995 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions increased, and overseas market prices also rose [8]. - **Important News**: Overseas and domestic spot alumina transactions occurred, and the national alumina inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 3.246 million tons [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The balance between supply and demand has tightened due to increased maintenance capacity, but new production and potential resumption of production may change the situation [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect high - level fluctuations, consider shorting if supply - demand returns to surplus; wait and see for arbitrage and options [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract rose to 20,295 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [13]. - **Important News**: The US revoked 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, and China's April social financing and other financial data were announced. Aluminum inventory decreased by 8000 tons [13][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of Sino - US trade relations improves demand expectations, and low inventory in May may support prices [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect prices to oscillate strongly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 1.25% to $2726/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.64% to 22,595 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [18]. - **Important News**: US April PPI data was released, and domestic zinc inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 863,000 tons [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Global zinc mine supply is increasing, and domestic production is expected to be stable in May. Supply growth exceeds demand growth, and inventory may accumulate [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: consider shorting on rallies, beware of capital - driven price fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 0.52% to $2004.5/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 rose 0.62% to 17,025 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand [23]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 560,000 tons, and sellers' willingness to sell increased while buyers were cautious [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Both supply and demand of lead are weak, and prices may oscillate [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the text. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose to $15,805/ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2506 rose to 125,230 yuan/ton. Spot premiums decreased [26]. - **Important News**: A nickel project in Tanzania is planned to start construction, and a Philippine company's Q1 net profit increased significantly [26][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term news affects sentiment, but fundamentals change little. Supply may increase after weather improves, and demand is entering the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling options within the range [30]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2507 contract fell to 13,020 yuan/ton, and spot prices were stable. Social inventory decreased by 0.42% [32]. - **Important News**: Not provided in the text. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term prices may oscillate above cost. 300 - series production is decreasing, and demand is affected by macro - factors [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect short - term strong oscillations; wait and see for arbitrage [34]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract rose 0.36% to 8410 yuan/ton, and spot prices were stable [36]. - **Important News**: A new project's environmental impact report was publicized [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is expected to increase in May, while demand from organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon is weak. Supply exceeds demand, and inventory is over 800,000 tons [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short on rallies; wait and see for options; conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [36][38]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The polycrystalline silicon futures contract fell 0.68% to 37,920 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined slightly [39]. - **Important News**: A report predicted global photovoltaic market growth [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand both decreased in May, and there may be a shortage of deliverable goods for the 06 contract. The 07 contract may follow fundamental logic [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short the PS2507 contract; or short - term long PS2506 and short PS2507, then switch to short - side allocation; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; conduct long PS2506 and short PS2507 arbitrage [42][43]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2507 contract fell to 64,120 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose slightly [44]. - **Important News**: A futures brand was solicited, and a UK miner faced export obstacles [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Low - cost producers have profits, demand is weak, and there is an oversupply expectation in May and June [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [45]. Tin - **Market Review**: Shanghai tin rose 0.18% to 265,850 yuan/ton, and spot trading was light [47]. - **Important News**: Indonesia's tin exports increased year - on - year in April, and US PPI data was released [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment is positive, and short - term supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is relieved [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect short - term oscillations, pay attention to supply; wait and see for options [48].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The domestic "One Bank, One Commission, One Administration" policy slightly exceeded expectations, and the Sino - US negotiation achieved significant progress, but the current tariff level remains high, which may limit market optimism. The supply of copper ore and recycled copper remains tight, while consumption shows signs of marginal weakening, making it difficult for copper prices to continue rising in the short term [1]. - The domestic aluminum ingot is approaching its production capacity limit, and the continuous decline in short - term inventory strongly supports aluminum prices. However, due to the current seasonally weak consumption, the sustainability of demand improvement may face challenges, restricting the rebound height of aluminum prices [3]. - The port inventory of lead concentrate continues to rise, the waste inventory is limited, and the downstream battery enterprises' holiday has been extended. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term commodity sentiment is strong, and the medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. - The port inventory of zinc concentrate continues to rise, and the zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. The zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased, but the domestic warehouse receipts remain at a low level. The Russian lead - zinc mine's expected shutdown in June may boost zinc prices from an emotional perspective [6]. - The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease. The impact of tariffs on the demand side remains to be observed. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price center may shift downward [7][8]. - The cost of nickel is expected to ease, and the spot demand is weak. Nickel prices should be treated with a bearish mindset [9]. - The short - term tariff change of lithium carbonate will bring additional orders, and the peak season is expected to continue. The futures price is likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream operating rates and domestic inventory changes [11]. - The supply of alumina is subject to continuous disturbances, and the new production capacity has increased uncertainty. The cost support continues to decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the medium - to - long - term supply surplus trend is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market shows a differentiated trend of narrow cost fluctuations and rising spot prices, with significantly improved steel mill profits. The short - term market is resilient, but the medium - to - long - term trend depends on the game between terminal recovery intensity and the off - season cycle [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9592/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 78,650 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 4075 to 185,575 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 41.8%. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 21,000 to 50,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the futures, and in Guangdong, it changed from a premium to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to about 250 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 1680 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper's main contract today is 78,000 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $9500 - $9700/ton [1]. Aluminum - Yesterday, LME aluminum closed up 1.16% at $2522/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,255 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased by 3000 to 545,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1000 to 62,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory in three regions decreased by 8000 to 471,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong and Wuxi decreased by 4000 to 93,000 tons. The spot in East China was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract today is 20,050 - 20,320 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $2480 - $2550/ton [3]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.16% at 16,937 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $9 to $1984/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 48,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 47,600 tons. The medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and the short - term lead price shows a strong - side fluctuation [4]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 1.69% at 22,605 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose by $40 to $2732.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,840 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 1600 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 168,000 tons. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 83,300 tons. The Russian lead - zinc mine is expected to shut down in June, which may boost zinc prices emotionally. The zinc price has rebounded slightly [6]. Tin - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 262,070 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 8179 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 15 to 2775 tons. The domestic tin ore is gradually resuming production, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $30,000 - $33,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated upward. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 125,230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, and the LME main contract closed at $15,800/ton, up 0.35%. The price of nickel ore from the Philippines remained stable, and the price of high - nickel pig iron in the market continued to weaken. The expected operating range for the SHFE nickel main contract today is 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $15,000 - $16,300/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 64,727 yuan, down 0.13%. The LC2507 contract closed at 65,200 yuan, up 3.13%. The main contract's closing price was at a premium of 250 yuan to the MMLC average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The short - term tariff change will bring additional orders, and the futures price is likely to fluctuate. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 64,200 - 66,000 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 14, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.54% to 2941 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The Shandong spot price was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the 07 contract. The overseas price also increased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased to 209,800 tons. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2700 - 3050 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,080 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased to 158,809 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1.113 million tons. The short - term market is resilient, and the medium - to - long - term trend depends on terminal recovery and the off - season [15].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五受贸易进展不确定性和地缘冲突的影响伦敦金下破 3280 美元后 | | 研究员：王伟 | 持续反弹，最终收涨 0.63%，报 3326.46 美元/盎司。但周末中美经贸高层宣布会谈取得 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 了实质性进展，伦敦金今晨跳空低开；现货白银周五收涨 0.84%，报 32.72 美元/盎司。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 790.74 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.88%， | | 报 | 8221 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数回吐前日部分涨幅，收跌 0.3%，报 100.339。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals and Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views Precious Metals - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) showed a high - level oscillating and回调 trend. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate offset part of the upward transmission effect of international gold prices, and the post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand made SHFE gold weaker than overseas markets. With multiple factors in play, SHFE gold will maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. Copper - Copper prices are affected by macro, sentiment, and expectations. In the short term, the absolute price of copper is difficult to predict, but volatility will remain high [16]. Zinc - Given the supply and demand situation and weak macro data, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short term. Alumina is likely to continue its weak performance due to an oversupply situation and bearish market sentiment [46]. Nickel - The nickel market remains stable in terms of fundamentals, with no significant changes in logic. The nickel market lacks obvious upward drivers [66]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to continue their narrow - range oscillation in the short term as the impact of macro factors on the fundamentals is not yet evident [80]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are falling, and there is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and salt prices. Trade uncertainties may suppress long - term demand [91]. Silicon - With prices in the silicon industry chain falling, downstream polysilicon production cuts are more likely, and the supply side of industrial silicon is also showing signs of adjustment [99]. 4. Content Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Price Performance**: SHFE gold showed high - level oscillation and回调, affected by factors such as the RMB exchange rate and domestic consumption demand [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand, and multiple macro - factors contribute to the current situation of SHFE gold [4]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term volatility remains high. The latest prices of various copper contracts are provided, with daily price changes and percentage changes [16][17]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors (US non - farm employment data and Sino - US tariff issues), market sentiment (disputes between bulls and bears), and policy expectations (upcoming financial policies) all impact copper prices [16]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend. The latest prices of various zinc contracts and related price differences are presented [35][36]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is expected to be loose due to the opening of the import window, and demand is supported by domestic policies but with unclear strength. Weak macro data also affects zinc prices [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Performance**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate, and alumina is likely to be weak. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina contracts are provided [46][47]. - **Influencing Factors**: For aluminum, macro factors and demand seasonality are key. For alumina, the supply of bauxite, production capacity changes, and market sentiment are important [46]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel market lacks upward drivers. The latest prices of nickel and stainless - steel contracts and related data are given [66][67]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slow release of nickel ore supply, the continuous decline in nickel - iron prices, and the weak stainless - steel market all contribute to the current situation [66]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The latest prices of tin contracts are provided [80]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty about Myanmar's复产 and the semiconductor industry cycle affect tin prices [80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium salt prices are falling, and the market is cautious. The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and related price differences are presented [91]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market sentiment, cost - side changes, and trade uncertainties impact lithium carbonate prices [91]. Silicon - **Price Performance**: The prices of industrial silicon and related products in the silicon industry chain are falling. The latest prices of industrial silicon contracts and spot prices are provided [99][100]. - **Influencing Factors**: Expected production cuts in downstream polysilicon and supply - side adjustments in industrial silicon affect prices [99].

| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/24 | -217.88 | -833.44 | 140 | -33 | 182300 | 31700 | | 2025/04/25 | -150.12 | -851.44 | 140 | -35 | 180050 | 29575 | | 2025/04/28 | -52.89 | -707.36 | 140 | -36 | 179325 | 29525 | | 2025/04/29 | -65.03 | -746.91 | 140 | -35 | 177550 | 31125 | | 2025/04/30 | -4.26 | -777.42 | 140 | -35 | 175275 | 31000 | | 变化 | 60.77 | -30.51 | 0 | 0 | -2275 | -125 | 本周锌价格重心反弹后宽幅震荡，关税情绪改善。供应端，本周国内T ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]