Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Cost drives up the prices of both spot and futures. The prices of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port and Taicang Port have increased or remained stable, and the futures price of the main log contract has also risen. The increase in the outer - disk price and shipping freight has raised the cost base [4]. - The inventory situation is differentiated. After the Spring Festival, the demand recovery is uneven. The terminal building materials and home furnishing market is still weak, and the resumption of work at construction sites is less than expected. Rizhao's processing plants have improved their inventory digestion, while Taicang still faces port pressure [6]. - The current main 2605 contract fluctuates after the increase. Although the order recovery of building materials is not good, there are still positive expectations in the market. The cost pressure is significant, and the future price trend is mainly dominated by downstream demand and other fundamental factors [8]. Summary by Directory Supply - Spot and futures prices: The 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port are priced at 780 yuan per cubic meter, up from the previous period; the 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port are priced at 780 yuan per cubic meter, remaining stable. As of March 24, the main log contract 2605 closed at 823 yuan per cubic meter, up from the previous period [4]. - Outer - disk price and shipping freight: In March 2026, the outer - disk (CFR) quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs was 117 - 122 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, up 5 US dollars per JAS cubic meter from the previous month. In late March 2026, the shipping freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand → China) was 40 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, up 8 US dollars per JAS cubic meter from early March, a 25% month - on - month increase [4]. - Expected and actual arrivals: This week (March 23 - 29, 2026), 10 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 3 less than last week, a 23% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume is about 348,000 cubic meters, 130,000 cubic meters less than last week, a 27% week - on - week decrease. Last week (March 16 - 22, 2026), 13 New Zealand log ships actually arrived at 13 Chinese ports, 4 more than the previous week, a 44% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume was about 478,000 cubic meters, 191,000 cubic meters more than the previous week, a 67% week - on - week increase [4]. - Import volume: In February 2026, China imported 3.215 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber; from January to February, the import volume was 7.503 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. In 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs decreased year - on - year [4]. - New Zealand's shipping: New Zealand's shipping has continued to recover. This week, the expected domestic arrival volume is 546,000 cubic meters, a 90% month - on - month increase. The expected arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports and the shipping volume at 12 New Zealand ports have both increased, but the expected increase in shipping freight and outer - disk prices has further raised the cost base [4]. Inventory - Inventory volume: As of March 24, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, 90,000 cubic meters less than last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.38 million cubic meters, 50,000 cubic meters less than last week; the North American timber inventory was 240,000 cubic meters, 30,000 cubic meters less than last week; the spruce/fir inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, the same as last week [6]. - Inventory trend: Before the Spring Festival, China shifted from destocking to stockpiling, and continued to stockpile during the Spring Festival. The inventory increase of radiata pine and North American timber was relatively significant, but it was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. During the festival, the processing plants were on holiday, and the arrival pressure during the Spring Festival was more moderate than in previous years. However, the demand recovery after the festival was uneven, the terminal building materials and home furnishing market was still weak, the resumption of work at construction sites was less than expected, and the supply side was under pressure [6]. - Out - bound volume: From March 16 to 22, the average daily out - bound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,400 cubic meters, a 6.23% increase from last week; among them, the average daily out - bound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 28,800 cubic meters, a 0.35% increase from last week; the average daily out - bound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 27,300 cubic meters, a 21.88% increase from last week [6]. Recent News and Outlook - Import structure: China's imported radiata pine shows obvious resource centralization characteristics, and the proportion from New Zealand has further increased. The domestic demand is accelerating to focus on high - cost - performance timber species. However, the risk of over - reliance on a single source continues to accumulate [7]. - Policy impact: The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs and black - type futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between the downstream construction wood of logs and coke reaches 0.9. To a certain extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry is beneficial to boosting the sentiment of the log futures market [7]. - Customs policy: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the Announcement No. 29 of 2025 (Announcement on Suspending the Import of American Logs). In the short term, the total volume of American logs that can arrive at the port and complete customs clearance will still be limited [7]. - Natural disaster: A landslide occurred in the Tauranga area of New Zealand's North Island. It is expected to affect local logging operations, and the shipping of some ships may be delayed. This week, New Zealand's shipping has returned to normal, and the current arrival volume in China is still at a relatively low level [7]. - Exchange policy: The Dalian Commodity Exchange suspended the delivery business of log - designated truck - board delivery sites at several companies [7]. - Geopolitical situation: The Iran situation has indirectly pushed up the global geopolitical risk index. Although the shipping of New Zealand logs mainly depends on markets such as China and does not directly involve the Iran route, it may indirectly affect the global transportation efficiency of New Zealand logs. In February 2026, the Baltic Dry Index rose due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, and the price of marine fuel oil rose in tandem with Brent crude oil, leading to an increase in the shipping cost of New Zealand's log exports to China [7]. Strategies and Suggestions - Market trend in 2025: In the second half of 2025, the near - and far - month trends of the log market were significantly differentiated. The 2511 contract fell rapidly after the peak season ended, and the 2601 contract once continued to oscillate strongly. The spread structure differentiation intensified [8]. - Situation before and during the Spring Festival in 2026: Before the Spring Festival in 2026, the demand performance was differentiated between the north and the south. In Jiangsu, the supply shortage was gradually alleviated, and the price increase momentum may slow down; in Shandong, the demand was stable. During the Spring Festival, the out - bound volume decreased significantly, the wood enterprises were generally on holiday, and the spot price remained stable. Although the inventory increased during the festival, the inventory pressure was more moderate than in previous years [8]. - After the Spring Festival in 2026: After the Spring Festival, the main contract was changed to the 2605 peak - season contract, and the price of the main log futures contract rose continuously, breaking through the short - term high of 804. The price increase was due to the increase in shipping freight and outer - disk quotes under the influence of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, as well as the positive expectations on the demand side after the market resumed work [8]. - Current situation and future outlook: The current main 2605 contract fluctuates after the increase. The order recovery of building materials is not good, but there are still positive expectations in the market. The cost pressure is significant. In the short term, it may maintain a stable situation after the increase. In general, the future price trend is more dominated by fundamental factors such as downstream demand. The US - Iran geopolitical situation mainly affects the shipping freight, and the import source is less relevant. In the existing supply - demand pattern, there is still room for upward movement in the peak season. If the "Golden March and Silver April" is postponed as expected, the fundamental situation still supports the log price. Attention should be paid to the inventory at Jiangsu ports and the change in shipping freight under the influence of geopolitics [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The European shipping line shows a weak downward trend. The market is bearish, with most contracts closing lower. The main contracts oscillate at low levels, showing an obvious downward trend. The core factors driving the market decline include the negative impact of the easing geopolitical situation and the arrival of the traditional shipping off - season, which causes some shipping companies to face cargo - booking pressure. However, the increase in operating costs due to rising fuel prices and ship detours provides some bottom support for freight rates. The market shows a "hump" shape, reflecting expectations for the third - quarter peak season but pessimism about the fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook. The contracts have different trends, and the market is highly volatile. In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern with pressure above and support below, and it is recommended that investors stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Export Container Freight Rates**: - SCFI - US West: Present value is 1121, previous value was 1109, with a 4.52% increase [1]. - SCFI - US East: Present value is 1636, previous value was 1618, with a 1.11% increase [1]. - SCFIS - US West: Present value is 2922, previous value was 2249, with a - 1.07% decrease [1]. - SCFI - Northwest Europe: Present value is 2054, previous value was 3111, with an - 8.67% decrease [1]. - CCFI Composite Index: Present value is 1707, previous value was 1710, with a - 0.20% decrease [1]. - SCFI - Mediterranean: Present value is 1556, previous value was 1545, with a certain increase (the exact percentage is not clearly presented) [1][2]. - SCFIS - Northwest Europe: Present value is 2784, previous value was 2666, with a certain increase (the exact percentage is not clearly presented) [1][2]. Geopolitical Situation - Trump stated that if Iran fails to fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours without any threats, the US will destroy and paralyze its power plants [3]. - At least one tanker operator paid about $2 million to Iran for the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - Iranian military sources said that if the US carries out its threat of military aggression against Kharg Island, Iran will launch an "unexpected" counter - attack [3]. - Houthi rebels may join the battle early next week according to Israeli media [3]. - Deterring other straits including the Bab - el - Mandeb and the Red Sea is an option for the "Resistance Front" according to Iranian military sources [3]. Market Condition - The market is in a downward trend [4]. Strategy - It is recommended that investors stay on the sidelines [8]

1. Report on Stock Index Futures Spread 1.1 Core Data - **IF Futures-Spot Spread**: The latest value is -86.32, a change of -12.73 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 1.20% and an all-time quantile of 2.00% [1]. - **IH Futures-Spot Spread**: The latest value is -20.25, a change of -3.93 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 12.70% and an all-time quantile of 8.10% [1]. - **IC Futures-Spot Spread**: The latest value is -187.77, a change of 17.97 from the previous day, with a 1-year historical quantile of 2.00% and an all-time quantile of 2.40% [1]. - **IM Futures-Spot Spread**: The latest value is -213.66, with relevant quantiles provided [1]. - **Cross-Term Spreads**: Various cross - term spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, including differences between different contract months and their changes, historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross-Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, CSI 300/SSE 50, etc., along with their changes and historical quantiles, are reported [1]. 2. Report on Treasury Bond Futures Spread 2.1 Core Data - **Basis**: On March 24, 2026, the TS basis was 1.1278, TF basis was 1.1961, T basis was 1.2398, and TL basis was 0.6196, with corresponding changes and historical percentiles since listing [2]. - **Cross - Term Spreads**: Cross - term spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL are provided, including differences between different seasons and their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T, etc., along with their changes, are reported [2].

Group 1: Market Analysis - The tail risk of the Iran situation should be emphasized. After the US and Israel's air strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. On March 19, the Middle East conflict escalated again, and Qatar's LNG facilities were damaged. Subsequently, the situation cooled down as the US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days. The main affected varieties are crude oil, LPG, and the shipping sector, and the continuous rise in oil prices has affected the oil - chemical and oilseed sectors, and may cause concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - Global expectations of interest rate hikes are rising. The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75% on March 19. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate and removed the "rate cut" wording. The Bank of Japan kept the policy unchanged, and the European Central Bank maintained the rate at 2% but has a tougher stance. The rise in oil prices and supply - chain disruptions have led to a special copper - oil seesaw pattern [2]. - In China, policies are being implemented in advance, and the economic structure is divided. The government work report in 2026 aims for an economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. China's February foreign - trade data shows high growth, and there are different trends in various economic sectors such as consumption, industry, and real estate. The central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on March 25 [3]. Group 2: Commodity Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - correlation between the non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices is worthy of attention. The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 4 - billion - barrel crude oil reserve, and the US plans to release 1.72 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves. Oil price increases have a driving effect on oil - chemical products, and the EU, Russia, and South Korea have taken measures to deal with the energy crisis. The oil - seed sector in agriculture is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [4]. Group 3: Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [5]. Group 4: Key News - US March PMI data shows different trends in manufacturing, services, and the composite index. Pakistan's prime minister is ready to host US - Iran talks. Egypt's foreign minister has held consultations with multiple countries on the Middle East situation. Eurozone, German, and French March PMI data show different trends in manufacturing and services. China's central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on March 25 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East situation may ease, and the prices of precious metals are being repaired. The market's pricing of liquidity risk has weakened slightly. It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a strong oscillation pattern in the near future, and the silver price will also maintain an oscillation pattern [1][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US government proposed a 15 - item conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan. The US requires Iran to stop supporting regional ally armed forces, limit the scale and range of ballistic missile projects, and keep the Strait of Hormuz open. In exchange, Iran may get sanctions lifted, US support for its civilian nuclear project, and the cancellation of the "snap - back sanctions" mechanism. The US is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 24, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 992.80 yuan/gram and closed at 977.28 yuan/gram, a change of 3.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 982.90 yuan/gram, up 0.32% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,000.00 yuan/kg and closed at 17,085.00 yuan/kg, a change of 10.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,247,893 lots, and the open interest was 211,635 lots. The night - session closed at 17,245 yuan/kg, up 0.94% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 24, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.354%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.471%, up 0.13 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2606 contract on March 24, 2026, the long positions changed by 3,774 lots, and the short positions changed by 1,280 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 736,505 lots, a change of - 13.82% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions changed by - 4,023 lots, and the short positions changed by - 7,084 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,943,232 lots, a change of - 4.10% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 1,052.70 tons, a decrease of 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,514 tons, an increase of 265 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On March 24, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was - 47.70 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 1,774.83 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 57.20, a change of - 6.22% from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 63.42, a change of - 4.35% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On March 24, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 87,880 kg, a change of - 15.80% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 534,268 kg, a change of 11.58% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a strong oscillation pattern in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2606 contract may be between 930 yuan/gram and 1,030 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2606 contract may be between 16,500 yuan/kg and 17,500 yuan/kg [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: On hold [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation on March 24, 2026, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as the stock index, treasury bonds, basic metals, precious metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, and black building materials, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of multiple sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day. The sectors include stock index, treasury bonds, basic metals, precious metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, and black building materials [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 24, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 915.168 billion yuan, a - 14.56% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1460.882 billion yuan, a - 0.66% change; the trading - holding ratio was 62.24% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On March 24, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 360.5 billion yuan, a - 23.04% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 860.664 billion yuan, a + 0.01% change; the trading - holding ratio was 40.18% [1] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On March 24, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metals plate was 630.07 billion yuan, a - 10.97% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 590.032 billion yuan, a - 0.47% change; the trading - holding ratio was 106.35%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 1213.765 billion yuan, a - 10.38% change; the holding amount was 398.835 billion yuan, a - 1.44% change; the trading - holding ratio was 364.76% [1] V. Energy and Chemicals Plate - On March 24, 2026, the trading volume of the energy and chemicals plate was 1281.966 billion yuan, a + 11.26% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 562.128 billion yuan, a - 6.87% change; the trading - holding ratio was 203.68% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On March 24, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 375.106 billion yuan, a - 11.15% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 654.363 billion yuan, a - 2.00% change; the trading - holding ratio was 53.07% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On March 24, 2026, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 299.898 billion yuan, a - 14.30% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 337.421 billion yuan, a - 0.72% change; the trading - holding ratio was 76.19% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors remain the core concern of the market. After the Trump administration released more signals of easing the situation, most global equity markets rebounded. The domestic market also showed a shrinking - volume rebound. Attention should be paid to potential positive factors from domestic policies. If the market trading volume effectively increases in the future, it is expected to drive the market to form a trend - upward [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on price supervision and anti - unfair competition work, emphasizing efforts in various aspects such as deepening price supervision, rectifying "involution - style" competition, and strengthening anti - unfair competition law enforcement [1]. - **Geopolitical - aspect**: Trump stated that the US had "won" in the action against Iran, and the US proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, including requirements on nuclear plans, missile capabilities, and regional issues [1]. 3.2 Index Performance - **Spot Market**: A - share major indices rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.5%. Most sector indices rose, with only the petroleum and petrochemical, and coal industries closing down. The environmental protection, textile and apparel, building materials, and non - ferrous metal industries led the gains. The trading volume on that day was 2.1 trillion yuan. As of the end of February, the scale of existing private equity funds reached 22.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 160 billion yuan from the end of the previous month, hitting a new high. Overseas, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped to 51.4, a new low in 11 months. The manufacturing and service sectors showed different trends: the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, exceeding expectations, while the service PMI dropped to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months. The three major US stock indices closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 0.84% to 21761.89 points [2]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IF, IH, and IM decreased. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of index futures decreased [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Geopolitical factors are still the core focus of the market. After the Trump administration released more signals of easing the situation, most global equity markets rebounded. The domestic market showed a shrinking - volume rebound. Attention should be paid to potential positive factors from domestic policies. If the market trading volume effectively increases in the future, it is expected to drive the market to form a trend - upward [3]. 3.4 Chart Information - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on March 24, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures, including the current values and changes. Table 3 shows the basis of index futures (futures - spot). Table 4 shows the inter - period spreads of index futures. There are also multiple charts related to the open interest, net open interest of foreign capital, basis, and inter - period spreads of different index futures contracts [17][39][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market bottomed out and rebounded throughout the day, with a significant divergence between the yellow and white lines, and the micro - cap stock index soared by over 5%. The expectation of the escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased, which may have a more profound impact on global energy supply, causing crude oil and its downstream industries to continue to rise sharply. The Fed maintained the interest rate level, and Powell's stance was hawkish. The dot - plot shows only one expected interest rate cut this year, increasing the risk - aversion sentiment in the capital market. In the medium term, if global technology stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong technology sectors in the A - share market may experience a valuation decline. It is recommended to allocate large - and small - cap indexes evenly for risk hedging [1] - The treasury bond futures closed with gains in some contracts and slight changes in others. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally negative for the bond market. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant increase in the oil price center, accelerating the expected pace of improvement in domestic inflation data. The market will be mainly in a state of shock adjustment, with long - term interest rates facing more significant pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable supported by the capital market [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market showed a significant divergence between large - cap and micro - cap stocks. The US - Iran conflict led to rising oil prices, and the Fed's hawkish stance increased risk - aversion sentiment. Global major stock indexes fell, and emerging markets had larger declines. In the medium term, the technology sector in the A - share market may face valuation adjustments. It is recommended to balance large - and small - cap index allocations [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net withdrawal of funds. The current environment is negative for the bond market. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the bond market will be in shock adjustment, with long - term interest rates under more pressure and short - term rates relatively stable [1][3] 3.2 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, 2026, IH rose by 1.25%, IF by 1.01%, IC by 2.41%, IM by 2.74%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index by 1.38%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.28%, the CSI 500 Index by 2.11%, and the CSI 1000 Index by 2.59% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, 2026, TS fell by 0.02%, TF remained unchanged, T rose by 0.02%, and TL rose by 0.48% [4] 3.3 Market News - The A - share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.78% on light trading volume, and the micro - cap stock index rising by over 5%. Green power concept stocks were active, the military industry sector strengthened, and the lithium - battery sector rose. The oil and gas sector performed weakly. Most stocks rose, with nearly 5,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing higher, and the trading volume reaching 2.1 trillion [5] - In terms of sectors, the military industry, power, medical, and sports sectors led the gains, while only the oil and gas sector declined slightly [5] - There were 4,866 rising stocks, 1,000 limit - up stocks, 299 falling stocks, 8 limit - down stocks, and 22 stocks breaking the limit - up, with a limit - break rate of 21% [5] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, showing the price trends and basis changes of these contracts over time [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures contracts, reflecting the price trends and related spread changes of different - term treasury bond futures [14][15][18][21] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indexes, showing the exchange rate trends of different currencies [23][24][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reached 52.4, higher than the expected 51.3 and the previous value of 51.6; the March S&P Global Services PMI was 51.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 51.7, indicating a recovery in the US manufacturing industry and a decline in the service industry. The conflicting signals of Middle - East conflict easing and escalation continue to influence the capital market, and the market is still driven by crude oil [2]. - In the domestic market, on Tuesday, the broader market rose 1.78%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.5%, showing a trend of bottom - hunting and recovery. There was obvious capital inflow at 10 am and 2 pm. Sectors such as environmental protection, textile and apparel, building materials, non - ferrous metals, and social services led the gains, while petroleum and petrochemicals and coal declined. A total of 5,135 stocks rose and 328 stocks fell. The "Token" economy may become the core pricing logic, and domestic computing power and data centers should be focused on. The domestic A - share market shows characteristics of a stock game under external uncertainties, and although there was capital inflow, the subsequent uncertainty is still high [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - Trump's support rate dropped to the lowest since his return to the White House [5]. - The US Department of Justice admitted that the investigation of Powell lacked evidence [6]. - The Trump administration is expected to relax summer gasoline regulations as early as Wednesday to suppress energy prices [6]. - The EU postponed the proposal to permanently ban the import of Russian oil originally scheduled for April 15 [7]. - Regarding the Iranian situation, there are various news including the US intention to cease fire for a month to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran, the possible high - level talks between the US and Iran as early as Thursday, Saudi Crown Prince urging Trump to continue the war against Iran, the appointment of Bagher Zolghadr as the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Trump's statement about ongoing negotiations and Iran's agreement on "never having nuclear weapons" and offering a gift related to oil and gas, the 15 - point peace plan put forward by the US, Iran being reported to demand a "toll" of $200,000 each time, Trump forwarding a post from the Prime Minister of Pakistan willing to act as a mediator, the US continuing to deploy the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, and Iran preferring Vance to lead the negotiations and accusing Kushner and Witkoff of "breach of trust" [8][9][10]. - Wang Yi had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir - Abdollahian [15]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on price supervision, inspection, and anti - unfair competition work in 2026 [16]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report provides data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including details like closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and position changes [18][19]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - It shows the performance of various spot market indexes, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and historical quantiles of indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. It also analyzes the influence of market styles on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, and presents the valuation and historical quantiles of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [43][44][46]. - It also includes various charts related to the spot market, such as the relationship between market style and index fluctuations, market trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes [53]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "stagflation" concern has slightly eased, and major asset classes have rebounded. However, due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term [1]. - The Iran - geopolitical situation continues to impact the financial market. Trump's statement about peace talks with Iran led to a sharp decline in crude oil on the evening of the 23rd and a rebound in major asset classes, but Iran officials denied direct negotiations with the US on the 24th. This statement can somewhat ease the market's concern about the "stagflation" risk [1]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target for the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy, and improves the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and external demand remains resilient [1]. - The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation faces large uncertain fluctuations, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Macro - The Iran - geopolitical situation continues to affect the financial market. Trump's statement on peace talks led to a sharp decline in crude oil on the evening of the 23rd and a rebound in major asset classes. But on the 24th, Iran officials denied direct negotiations with the US. Although Trump's statement cannot substantially relieve the Strait blockade, it can ease the market's concern about the "stagflation" risk to some extent [1]. 3.2 Domestic Macro - The "15th Five - Year Plan" continues the "14th Five - Year" indicator framework, raises the target for the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds relevant indicators, and improves relevant systems. The current domestic macro - economy is stable, and external demand remains resilient [1]. 3.3 Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag of the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation faces large uncertain fluctuations, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets [1]. 3.4 Market Conditions of Various Varieties - **Financial**: Stock index futures show a shrinking - volume rebound, index options' implied volatility falls, and the sentiment has not fully warmed up. Treasury bond futures price in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the long - end sentiment of bonds warms up. All are expected to be volatile [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a post - oversold repair - type rebound in the short term, but need to be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. They are expected to be volatile [4]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line has decreased month - on - month, and the spot market has declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by repeated geopolitical conflicts, the market is expected to be volatile. For example, steel has strong cost support, and iron ore fluctuates at a high level [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The pessimistic sentiment has eased, and basic metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate. For example, aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, and nickel is expected to be strongly volatile [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The Middle East geopolitical situation remains deadlocked, and the energy and chemical sector continues to fluctuate at a high level. For example, crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and methanol fluctuates within a range [5]. - **Agriculture**: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price continues to weaken. Natural rubber rebounds slightly, and synthetic rubber fluctuates at a high level. Cotton fluctuates within a range [5]. 3.5 Financial Market and Industry Index Fluctuations - **Financial Market Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, the stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, while the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different trends. The US dollar index fell, and the US and Chinese bond yields also changed [7]. - **Industry Index Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, most industries in the CITIC industry index rose, such as non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel. However, the petroleum and petrochemical industry fell [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodity Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil rose slightly, while NYMEX natural gas and ICE UK natural gas fell. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also showed different trends [10][11]. - **Domestic Commodity Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, most domestic commodities showed different degrees of fluctuations. For example, gold and silver rose significantly, while crude oil and fuel oil fell significantly [12][13][14].