Group 1: Report's Core Views - Recent bond market fluctuations have increased due to intense fluctuations in monetary policy expectations, leading to frequent band - trading by trading funds and amplifying market volatility. The market's view is that funds are difficult to tighten, and the bond market is difficult to rise significantly. Trading funds can conduct band operations based on changes in monetary policy expectations, but the bond market has limited space until the factors restricting the entry of allocation funds subside [6][9]. - The main reason for the cautious attitude of long - term bond - allocating funds such as banks and insurance companies towards the 2026 bond market includes expectations of a "good start" in financial, inflation, and economic data at the beginning of the year, government bond issuance front - loading, insurance "good start" product structure, weakening bond profit - making effects, and the spread of credit risks in some industries [6][12]. - After entering 2026, attention can be paid to whether there are changes in bank behavior. On one hand, banks' indicator pressure eases, which may enhance their bond - allocating motivation; on the other hand, strong credit reserve at the beginning of the year may put pressure on the capital side and restrict their bond - allocating demand. Near the end of the year, changes in the certificate of deposit market can be observed [6][13]. Group 2: This Week's Fixed - Income Market Concerns Overseas Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the October durable goods orders monthly rate, and Japan will release the November unemployment rate [14][15]. Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to be 240 billion yuan, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 188 billion yuan, local bonds with a scale of 2.04 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds with a scale of about 50 billion yuan [15]. Group 3: Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook 14 - Day Reverse Repurchase Initiation - Near the end of the year, the central bank initiated 14 - day reverse repurchases on Thursday and Friday, with a total reverse - repurchase investment of 657.5 billion yuan and a net withdrawal of 11 billion yuan. After adding the 30 - billion - yuan maturity of central bank bills, the open - market operations had a net investment of 19 billion yuan. The money market showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price [17][18]. Bond Market Sentiment Repair - Last week, the bond market's optimistic sentiment increased, and with the central bank's support for the year - end, most bond market interest rates were repaired. The extremely long - term bonds fluctuated greatly, rising significantly and then falling back to the previous week's level. The yields of most periodic interest - rate bonds were repaired, with the 3 - year China Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds having the largest decline of about 5.5bp [32]. Group 4: High - Frequency Data Production End - Most of the operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate decreased from 78.6% to 78.5%, the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased from 71.6% to 71.4%, the PTA operating rate remained flat at 73.8%, and the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased from 27.8% to 27.6%. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early December narrowed, with a reading of - 11.3% [36]. Demand End - The year - on - year decline in the wholesale and retail sales of passenger car manufacturers both improved compared to last week. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area remained large. The land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction area increased. The export indices SCFI and CCFI increased by 3.1% and 0.6% respectively [36]. Price End - Crude oil prices declined, while copper and aluminum prices increased. Coal prices were divided, with the thermal coal futures settlement price remaining flat and the coking coal futures settlement price increasing by 7.9%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index, cement index, and glass index changed by 0.7%, 0.4%, and - 1.1% respectively. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory decreased rapidly to 3.13 million tons, with the futures price increasing by 1.4%. In the downstream consumer end, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 1.3%, 1.6%, and 0.2% respectively [37].

市场对美联储政策的定价略微转向鹰派，目前对1月政策会议的降息预期约为3个基点，而周一收盘时预 期为4个基点。 市场对美联储政策的定价略微转向鹰派，目前对1月政策会议的降息预期约为3个基点，而周一收盘时预 期为4个基点。 责任编辑：李肇孚 责任编辑：李肇孚 美国国债在第三季度GDP数据公布后跌向日内低点。美国第三季度经济增长4.3%，创出两年来最快增 速。 美国国债收益率当日小幅走高，早盘时段一度走低。美国10年期国债收益率触及盘中高点，位于 4.165%附近，分别跑输同期限德国国债和英国国债3个基点和2个基点。 美国国债在第三季度GDP数据公布后跌向日内低点。美国第三季度经济增长4.3%，创出两年来最快增 速。 美国国债收益率当日小幅走高，早盘时段一度走低。美国10年期国债收益率触及盘中高点，位于 4.165%附近，分别跑输同期限德国国债和英国国债3个基点和2个基点。 ...

Bond yields spiked and stock futures dipped after third-quarter gross domestic product growth clocked in well ahead of expectations.Inflation-adjusted GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% from July through September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said. That was well above the consensus estimate among economists polled by FactSet at 3%.The yield on the 2-year Treasury note jumped to 3.54%. The 10-year yield rose to 4.19%. ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - In 2025, the global macroeconomic environment shows unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs [1] - Precious metals have performed exceptionally well, with COMEX gold rising by 60.84% and Shanghai silver increasing by 112.87% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI global index has increased by 20.70% since the beginning of the year, with emerging markets in Asia outperforming those in Europe and the US [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Many foreign institutions expect the equity market to continue its growth trend in 2026 despite uncertainties, with a strong interest in AI-related investments [3] - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards US equities due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification, particularly in Asian markets [4][5] - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is close to 24, with tech and consumer discretionary sectors reaching around 30, indicating optimistic future earnings expectations [4] Group 3: Focus on Asian Markets - HSBC and other institutions view Asian markets, including Chinese A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Singapore, and South Korea, as key areas for investment outside the US [5] - The recovery of IPO activities and strong capital inflows into Hong Kong are seen as significant positive factors for the market [5] - China's advancements in AI are expected to support the performance of both offshore and onshore tech stocks in 2025 [5] Group 4: AI Investment Landscape - AI is recognized as the core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware investments to broader ecosystem value creation [7] - AI capital expenditure is projected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and continue growing to approximately $500 billion in 2026 [7] - The revenue potential of AI-enabled applications is expected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [7] Group 5: Chinese Economic Policy and Growth - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy in 2026 will focus on fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy, with an expected increase in the fiscal deficit rate [10] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be between 4.5% and 5% [11] - Structural policy measures, particularly in the consumption sector, are expected to play a significant role in stimulating the economy [10] Group 6: Diversification and Alternative Assets - The high correlation among traditional assets has heightened the need for diversification, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [12] - Gold is favored as a hedge against geopolitical risks, with expectations of continued price support due to central bank demand and a weak dollar [12] - Investors are encouraged to consider alternative diversification tools such as private equity and hedge funds to navigate increasing market uncertainties [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's risk assessment of urban investment bonds after June 2027 has generally increased, but the "belief" remains unshaken. Before more positive factors emerge in the bond market, it is recommended to focus on urban investment bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years to explore their value. - Towards the end of the year, the bond market has shown overall weakness and increased volatility, mainly due to the strong wait - and - see sentiment of institutions such as banks and insurance companies, while trading desks have been active. Compared with previous years, there are more negative factors this year. Looking forward, the bond market is expected to remain highly volatile, and the yield center is likely to remain flat or rise slightly. Therefore, short - and medium - term credit bonds are still the better choice. - In the past two weeks, credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years have shown a good recovery trend, and their yields have basically returned to the level of late November. Although the 5 - year bonds have stabilized, there has been no obvious downward trend. The market strictly controls the duration of credit bonds, resulting in a relatively steep yield curve for many issuers around 3 years. Since the extension of Vanke's bonds, the market's risk assessment of urban investment bonds after June 2027 has generally increased, but there is no significant divergence in views. The pressure to sell is still greater for industrial bonds, such as those in the real estate and construction industries [6][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly View - The market's risk assessment of urban investment bonds after June 2027 has increased, but the "belief" in urban investment bonds remains. Before more positive factors emerge in the bond market, it is advisable to focus on urban investment bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years. - The bond market is weak and volatile at the end of the year. Institutions have a strong wait - and - see attitude, and trading desks are active. There are more negative factors this year compared to previous years. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and the yield center may rise slightly. Short - and medium - term credit bonds are a better choice. - In the past two weeks, 3 - year - and - below credit bonds have recovered well, while 5 - year bonds have stabilized but not declined significantly. The market strictly controls the duration of credit bonds, and the yield curve around 3 years is relatively steep. After Vanke's bond extension, the risk assessment of urban investment bonds after June 2027 has increased, and the pressure on industrial bonds is greater [6][9]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - **Bond Default and Overdue**: From December 15 to December 21, 2025, Wuhan Tianying Investment Group Co., Ltd. failed to pay the interest of 108.8 million yuan and the principal of 400 million yuan for the bond "H20 Tianying 3", with a total overdue amount of 508.8 million yuan [13]. - **Subject Rating or Outlook Downgraded**: There were no enterprises with their subject ratings or outlooks downgraded during the period [14]. - **Bond Rating Downgraded**: There were no bonds with their ratings downgraded during the period [15]. - **Overseas Rating Downgraded**: On December 17, 2025, Fitch downgraded Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd. and Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. The long - term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings of Vanke were downgraded from "CCC -" to "C", and the ratings of its related subsidiaries and bonds were also downgraded [15]. - **Major Negative Events**: From December 15 to December 21, 2025, several companies had negative events, including the misuse of bond - raised funds by a subsidiary of Shangqiu Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., and some companies being included in the list of dishonest被执行人 or receiving public condemnation from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [16]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - The issuance volume was flat compared to the previous period, and the maturity volume was also basically the same. The net financing amount decreased slightly. From December 15 to December 21, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 262 billion yuan, a 4% decrease compared to the previous period, and the total repayment amount was 204.6 billion yuan, remaining basically the same. The final net financing was 57.5 billion yuan [17]. - There were 10 credit bonds whose issuance was cancelled or postponed, with a total scale of 5.1 billion yuan. The number and scale of cancelled or postponed issuances both decreased. - In terms of primary issuance costs, the issuance cost of AA + - rated bonds increased significantly. Last week, the average coupon rates of AAA - and AA + - rated bonds were 2.27% and 2.96% respectively, up 1bp and 39bp compared to the previous period. The frequency of new AA/AA - rated bonds remained low [18]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - The valuations of credit bonds of all ratings and maturities continued to recover slightly, with an average decrease of about 1bp, while credit spreads widened passively by about 3bp. The bond market was stable last week, and the valuations of credit bonds continued to recover. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds decreased more, with an overall decrease of about 1bp and up to 2 - 3bp for medium - and long - term bonds. The risk - free interest rate also decreased but by a larger margin, resulting in a passive widening of credit spreads [21]. - The 5Y - 1Y term spreads of medium - and low - grade bonds widened significantly, by 4 - 5bp, while the 3Y - 1Y term spreads of all ratings fluctuated slightly. The AA - AAA grade spreads of medium - and long - term bonds widened, with the 5 - year spread widening by up to 3bp [23]. - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in all provinces widened last week, with a central range of 3 - 4bp and little differentiation among provinces. Yunnan had the largest widening of 6bp. The spreads of industrial bonds in all industries also widened slightly by 2 - 3bp [25][28]. - The weekly turnover rate was flat compared to the previous period, decreasing by 0.01 percentage points to 1.88%. The issuers of the top ten bonds in terms of turnover rate were mostly central and state - owned enterprises. The prices of Vanke's bonds still fluctuated significantly last week, and all credit bonds with a discount of more than 10% in trading were Vanke's bonds [29]. - From the perspective of individual issuer valuation changes, the distribution of urban investment bonds with the largest narrowing or widening of spreads was scattered. In the industrial sector, the top five issuers with the largest widening of spreads were mostly real - estate companies, whose short - term valuations fluctuated greatly due to factors such as option exercises. The real - estate companies with the largest spread widening were Times Holdings, Country Garden, Rongqiao, and Greenland [30].

Group 1: Economic Overview - US inflation for October and November was significantly lower than expected, with a potential rebound in December. The focus of the Federal Reserve has shifted towards addressing weak employment under a K-shaped recovery, maintaining an overall accommodative policy stance, and market expectations for interest rate cuts next year have increased [1][11] - In China, November data on consumption and investment showed weakness, indicating that domestic demand still needs stabilization. However, the recovery in export growth has supported industrial production, while retail sales were affected by the decline in government subsidies and the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1][11] Group 2: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remained stable, with short-term yields declining and mid to long-term yields showing volatility. The central bank is expected to implement substantial easing to lower bank funding costs ahead of potential interest rate cuts [2][12] - For A-shares, the framework indicates a bottoming of profits, but liquidity and risk appetite remain negative. The rapid decline in US CPI has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting the offshore market [2][13] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase benefiting from liquidity but facing weak fundamentals. The improvement of the price level in 2026 will be crucial for market performance [2][13] Group 3: Commodity Insights - In the oil market, global economic fundamentals indicate weak demand, continuous supply release, and inventory accumulation, leading to sustained price pressure [3][14] - For gold, the reduction of uncertainties due to easing US-China trade tensions and a shift in focus from trade to domestic policy may lead to a gradual decrease in risk premiums, potentially slowing the pace of gold price increases while maintaining a positive long-term outlook [3][14]

Group 1: CRO Demand and Pricing - The demand for CRO services is recovering, with a tight supply of experimental monkeys leading to price increases. The price of 3-5 year old macaques has risen to 140,000 yuan each, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the domestic innovative drug R&D sector [4][5]. - In 2025, from January to November, domestic financing for innovative drugs reached 4.086 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% compared to 2024. This reflects a significant recovery in the demand for innovative drug R&D [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Strategies - As the year-end approaches, bond market strategies are converging towards reducing duration and increasing leverage. The interbank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.23 percentage points to 107.68% as of December 19 [8][9]. - Funds are focusing on short- to medium-term credit bonds, with a notable shift towards buying credit bonds while net selling government bonds. This indicates a strategy of selling rates and buying credit [9]. Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - Changan Deep Blue and BAIC Blue Valley's Arcfox have received the first batch of L3 level approval for autonomous driving vehicles, marking a significant milestone in China's policy and regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles [12]. - The Great Wall Ora 5 was launched with a suggested retail price range of 99,800 to 133,800 yuan, featuring advanced driver assistance systems and a design that continues the Ora "cat" series [13][14]. - The automotive sector's performance is closely aligned with the overall market, with the A-share automotive index showing a slight decline of 0.1% during the week of December 15 to 19 [11]. Group 4: Chemical Industry Insights - The price of liquid chlorine has increased to 114 yuan/ton, up 11.76% week-on-week, driven by improved demand from downstream industries [26]. - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices rose to 102,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.51%, while battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 104,250 yuan/ton, up 8.31%, indicating strong demand in the energy storage sector [26]. - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a shift towards domestic substitutes for semiconductor materials due to geopolitical tensions, with a focus on companies involved in photolithography and electronic chemicals [17][19]. Group 5: Swine and Poultry Industry Trends - The swine industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, with regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing pig prices. The expectation is that price adjustments will be gradual rather than abrupt [43]. - The poultry sector is showing signs of improvement, with a focus on the white feather chicken breeding segment, which has seen a steady increase in breeding stock [44]. Group 6: Real Estate Market Outlook - The report forecasts that in 2026, the total sales area of commercial housing will reach 780 million square meters, with significant contributions from third- and fourth-tier cities [49]. - The supply of new homes in first-tier cities is expected to decline due to reduced land supply, with a projected 28% year-on-year decrease in land transaction area [50]. - The new home price index is expected to perform better than the second-hand home price index, with a slight year-on-year decline of 1.2% for new homes compared to a 5.8% decline for second-hand homes [52].

加拿大激烈出手，原因里有经济自救的成分，也有对美国产生的不满和应对政策冲击的一股本能，抛售给全球市场投下大石。 同一时间，特朗普重新掌舵白宫后就在搞动作，公开要求更换美联储主席，并且强烈暗示要大幅度降息，时间点极为敏感。 中国再抛118亿美债，全球抛售、特朗普换将，美元霸权危矣？这话题得来得猛，也得看清来龙去脉，先把关键点抛出来——中国减持美债118亿美元、加拿 大单月卖出567亿美元、特朗普上台后急着换美联储主席并催促降息，这些事放一起，像是压在一盘棋上的三颗子同时掉了，后面有更猛的细节，别急着走 开。 2022年起，中国的外汇配置开始转向，美元资产比重慢慢降下来，到了2025年再次减持118亿美元，把持仓推向2008年以来的新低。 中国这波减持不是一时兴起，而是长期调整的延续，外储从高位慢慢"瘦身"，同时连续13个月买金，这阵势像是在给账本做防护。 到了2025年，加拿大在一个月内抛售567亿美元美债，这数目在历史上都算惊人的，非常规操作把市场嚇了一跳。 资金流动上，曾经把美元国债当避风港的国家和机构，现在开始寻求分散，黄金等替代品成了很多人的新选择。 加拿大的单月巨量抛售在市场上起到了催化剂的作用，说明 ...

核心观点 大类资产总览：节前进入持续震荡期。 本周，权益市场仍维持震荡态势，在区间震荡周期中，市场 向上动能不足，资金量能较过往显著下滑，持续低于两万亿。 量能的收缩背后更多显示出场内投资者观望情绪偏重，在年 末政策偏向真空期，叠加节假日偏多带来的风险偏好下移等 因素，节前无力组织上攻或是显而易见的事情。但市场仍维 持在偏高位置的区间震荡，侧面反映出当下市场支撑力度仍 然较强，下行有底，各类热门板块虽无法走出持续性行情， 但在板块轮动下，依然能够维持指数平稳运行。因此，短期 指数的箱体震荡并无需悲观，其反而是市场相对坚挺的表 现。本周债市仍维持震荡态势，债随股走的现象依然存在， 且相对显著。商品市场同样走出震荡行情，贵金属一枝独秀， 但难以抵挡整体大趋势，商品市场依旧仅能维持震荡行情。 证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 短期震荡或是主题 【20251215-20251221】 证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 着相对密切的关系。债市短期或难以走出独立行情，整体走 势或将持续围绕股债跷跷板的趋势进行。 本周 A 股观点：短期震荡或是主题。 本周 A ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the long-term bond market, particularly focusing on the performance and investment potential of ultra-long government bonds, highlighting the challenges and opportunities present in this segment [4][11]. Group 1: Ultra-Long Government Bonds - Ultra-long government bonds are defined as those with maturities of 20 years or more, primarily held by institutions like insurance companies and pension funds [5]. - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) saw a significant increase of 23.21% in 2024, but has recently experienced a decline of approximately 4% from early November to December 8, with yields rising from 2.136% to 2.265% [7][9]. - The yield spread between the 30-year and 10-year government bonds has widened to about 41 basis points, indicating a divergence in performance [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The decline in ultra-long bonds is attributed to several factors, including credit events in the real estate sector affecting market sentiment, leading to a reduction in duration by investors [17]. - Central bank operations and changes in policy expectations have also contributed to the volatility in the ultra-long bond market, with recent net bond purchases signaling uncertainty about future rate movements [19]. - Global trends, such as rising long-term interest rates in other markets, have further pressured China's ultra-long bond yields, making institutions more cautious [19][20]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The article suggests that the current environment presents a mismatch between market expectations and reality, with the 30-year bond yield having risen back above 2.2% due to slower-than-expected easing measures [21][22]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on key policy signals and liquidity conditions, rather than aggressively pursuing directional bets [22][23]. - A specific yield level of 2.35% for the 30-year bond is highlighted as a potential entry point for investors looking to gradually accumulate positions [24].