Core Viewpoint - The bid-to-cover ratio for Japan's 10-year government bond auction was 3.51, which is lower than the 3.66 recorded in the previous auction held in June [1] Group 1 - The current bid-to-cover ratio indicates a decrease in demand for Japan's 10-year government bonds compared to the previous auction [1]

Group 1 - Inner Mongolia issued a 10-year general local government bond with a scale of 6.88784 billion [1] - The issuance interest rate is set at 1.7500% [1] - The marginal multiple was recorded at 1.93 times, with an expected multiple of 1.99 [1]

Group 1 - The yield spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds has decreased by 1 basis point to 87 basis points, potentially reaching the narrowest closing level since 2010 [1] - The yield spread between Italian and French 10-year government bonds has fallen to below 20 basis points, marking the first occurrence since 2007 [1]

两年期德债收益率涨0.1个基点，报1.861%，6月份累涨8.6个基点，上半年累跌22.1个基点，整体交投于 2.320%-1.622%区间；30年期德债收益率涨3.0个基点，报3.100%，6月份累涨12.0个基点，上半年累涨 50.3个基点，军费开支预期使得3月5日出现显著的"跳空高开"行情。 2/10年期德债收益率利差涨1.328个基点，报+74.109个基点，6月份累涨1.891个基点，上半年累涨46.103 个基点，整体交投区间为+22.108个基点至+97.406个基点，4月份达到峰值后持续高位震荡。 周一（6月30日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率涨涨1.5个基点，报2.607%，6月份累计上涨10.7个 基点，上半年累计上涨24.0个基点，整体交投于2.344%-2.940%区间，3月12日达到顶部。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the 6-month U.S. Treasury bill auction held on June 30 was 4.11%, slightly down from the previous yield of 4.12% [1]

美国至6月30日3个月国债竞拍-投标倍数 3.04，前值3.49。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the results of the U.S. 6-month Treasury bill auction held until June 30, showing a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77, which is an increase from the previous value of 2.7 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant "duration extension" trend, particularly driven by public funds aggressively purchasing long-duration bonds, leading to a notable compression in credit spreads for bonds with maturities over five years [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent weeks have seen a clear trend of extending durations in the bond market, especially in the credit bond sector, which has outperformed the interest rate bond market [2]. - As of June 27, the duration of bond funds has increased from approximately 2.5 years at the beginning of June to over 2.7 years [3]. - The total scale of credit bond ETFs has surged to 214.7 billion yuan, marking a 50% increase since the end of May, with notable growth in specific ETFs [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the ongoing "bull market" in bonds, there are rising concerns about market overcrowding, with credit spreads nearing historical lows and leverage ratios approaching historical highs [5]. - Analysts express a generally optimistic outlook for the bond market, citing supportive fundamentals such as weak domestic demand and a favorable monetary policy stance from the central bank [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to maintain a focus on long-duration bonds to capitalize on the anticipated bull market following the quarter-end [7]. - Investors are advised to consider bonds with durations between 3 to 5 years, particularly those with higher yields, while remaining cautious of potential market volatility [8].

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 6 月 30 日 大类资产运行周报（20250623-20250627） 地缘冲突明显缓和 权益资产周度上涨 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 3.25% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 3.28% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.98% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.99% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 1.04% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -1.52% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn -4.09% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | -6.00% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202503 ...

证券研究报告 固收 科创债 ETF 推出在即，如何看待 2025 年 6 月 30 日│中国内地 信用周报 信用热点：科创债 ETF 推出在即，如何看待 6 月 18 日首批 10 只科创债 ETF 上报，有望在近期获批发行。科技板推出 后科创债迅速扩容，为科创债 ETF 的推出奠定市场基础。首批科创债 ETF 跟踪三类科创债指数，底层标的集中在交易所高等级国企债，期限偏中短端， 6 月成分券换手率明显提升。科创债指数表现呈现收益稳健、较低波动的特 点。随着科创债 ETF 即将推出，机构提前布局等待 ETF 建仓，科创债指数 成分券估值下行较非成分券更快。后续科创债 ETF 获批上市、规模扩容， 将有利于压缩科创债流动性溢价，利好科创债品种表现，可关注投资机会， 扰动因素有估值定价扭曲、赎回压力、风险偏好变化等。 市场回顾：股市连阳推升市场风险偏好，信用债收益率多数上行 上周临近季末，央行呵护下资金面整体平稳，但股债跷跷板导致债市出现一 定回调，信用债收益率多数上行。2025 年 6 月 20 日至 6 月 27 日，央行呵 护下季末资金面平稳，股市突破前高导致市场风险偏好提升，股债跷跷板下 债市略有调整，利 ...