1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The regional spread of urban investment bonds has shown a significant differentiation, with the spread in economically strong regions remaining low and the spread in weak - qualified regions still high. As platforms complete the clearance of implicit debts and exit the "list", market attention will shift to regional economic resilience and platform self - hematopoietic ability [1][15]. - The term spread of low - rated urban investment bonds has widened, indicating market concerns about the long - term solvency of weak - qualified entities after transformation. The market also has high requirements for liquidity compensation for weak - qualified urban investment bonds [17][21]. - Urban investment bonds with a remaining term of less than 2 years have relatively strong safety margins and can be explored according to return requirements. For longer durations, medium - to high - grade urban investment bonds with strong self - hematopoietic abilities and stable cash flows should be selected. Insurance institutions with stable liability ends can appropriately focus on the coupon allocation value of high - grade urban investment bonds over 5 years [2][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Analysis of Urban Investment Bond Spreads in the Second Half of Debt Resolution - **Regional spread differentiation**: The "package debt resolution policy" has effectively alleviated the liquidity risk in weak - qualified regions, causing the regional spread to decline rapidly in the early stage of the policy. Since the second half of 2025, the regional spread has dropped below 150bp, but the absolute spread between strong and weak regions is still significant. The credit spread in economically and fiscally strong regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong remains at a low level of 30 - 40bp, while that in weak - qualified regions such as Guizhou is still above 150bp [11][15]. - **Term spread differentiation**: As the key point approaches, the pricing center of the term spread of urban investment bonds has shifted upward, and the widening range of the term spread of low - rated bonds is relatively higher. For example, the 3Y - 1Y term spread center of AAA - rated urban investment bonds has increased by 10bp from - 6.6bp in 2024, while that of AA(2) - rated bonds has increased by 17bp. The difference between the spreads of 1 - 2Y and 3 - 5Y low - rated urban investment bonds in Jiangsu has reached a new high since the end of 2025 [17][21]. 3.2. Overview of Credit Bond Yields - Last week (January 12 - 18, 2026), credit bond yields mainly declined. Financial bonds outperformed general credit bonds, long - term varieties outperformed short - term ones, and credit bonds mostly outperformed interest - rate bonds of the same term. Among them, bank secondary perpetual bonds in financial bonds performed the best [23]. 3.3. Primary Market - **Issuance volume**: The issuance scale of credit bonds increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, and the net financing scale decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year. From January 12 to 18, the credit bond issuance scale was 351.271 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 41.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 216 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 61.793 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 90.3 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 157.8 billion yuan [31]. - **Issuance term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased week - on - week. Last week, the average issuance term was 2.7 years, a decrease of 0.17 years compared with the previous week. The issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.57 years, 0.2 years, and 0.46 years respectively [40]. - **Issuance cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds decreased. Last week, the average issuance interest rate was 2.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1bp. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.6bp, 1.1bp, and 1.8bp respectively [42]. - **Cancellation of issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances increased week - on - week. From January 12 to 18, 15 bonds were cancelled, an increase of 7 compared with the previous week, and the total scale of cancelled issuances was 8.308 billion yuan, an increase of 1.662 billion yuan [46]. 3.4. Secondary Market - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of various credit bond varieties increased compared with the previous week. The trading volumes of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 40 billion yuan. In terms of remaining term and implicit rating, there were different trends in the trading proportion of each variety [51][52]. - **Trading liquidity**: The turnover rates of credit bonds increased last week. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased from 1.58%, 1.99%, and 3.21% to 1.80%, 2.10%, and 3.51% respectively. The turnover rates of different terms of each variety showed different trends [55]. - **Spread tracking**: The spreads of urban investment bonds mostly narrowed last week, with the average narrowing amplitude ranked as 1Y>10Y>7Y>3Y. Except for Shanghai and Gansu, the spreads of each province narrowed. The spreads of AAA - rated industrial bonds mostly widened, while those of AA - rated industrial bonds mostly narrowed. The spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and insurance subordinated bonds all narrowed [60][65][66]. 3.5. Weekly Hot Bonds Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scores, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [70]. 3.6. Review of Credit Rating Adjustments According to domestic rating agencies, there were no bonds with upgraded or downgraded debt ratings last week [75].

在您继续阅读这篇文章之前，麻烦您先点击一下关注，这样不仅能方便您参与讨论和分享，还能带给您不一样的参与感。感谢您的支持！编辑：[太阳]中国 近年来大刀阔斧地减持美债，其持仓量已经下降至6826亿美元，创下自2008年以来的历史新低。这背后的意义远非偶然，它与中国黄金储备的暴涨相呼应， 构成了清晰的去美元化路线图。当全球最大债主开始清仓，美元霸权的根基也在悄然震荡。 美国财政部数据显示，2023年11月，中国减持了61亿美元美债，现持有美债总额已降至6826亿美元。这一数字意味着自2008年金融危机以来，中国的美债持 仓已经达到了18年来的最低水平。简单来说，过去十几年间，中国持有美债的规模几乎已经减半，而且这一趋势还在持续。如此大的变化，显然并非偶然， 而是一个长时间累积的过程。 回顾一下中国美债的持有历史，2000年代初期，中国曾是美国最大的债主，最多时持有超过1.3万亿美元美债。那个时期，美国不断加大发债规模，中国也 大规模购买美债，全球美元体系一度显得如铁打般稳固。然而，时至今日，十多年过去，中国对美债的持仓几乎已经腰斩，并且持续减持。这不仅仅是短期 的情绪反应，而是一个长期的趋势变化。 同时，另一组数 ...

Group 1 - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for nine consecutive months, bringing the total to $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008, indicating a strategic shift towards gold and emerging market investments to mitigate dollar credit risks and geopolitical threats [1][3] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38.6 trillion, with interest payments consuming 20% of fiscal revenue, leading to a downgrade in its credit rating by international agencies, which reflects the growing perception of U.S. Treasuries as less secure assets [3] - China's gold reserves have increased to 2,279.57 tons, marking 14 consecutive months of purchases, which signifies a strategic transition from credit currency to physical assets, as gold now constitutes a larger share of foreign exchange reserves than U.S. Treasuries [3][4] Group 2 - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings is linked to the internationalization of the renminbi, with the cross-border payment system (CIPS) covering 189 countries and 48% of Saudi oil trade being settled in renminbi, indicating a shift towards a trade settlement ecosystem outside of the dollar [4] - Global central bank dollar reserves have fallen below 60%, the lowest since 1995, suggesting a transition to a dual-currency system, as countries like Saudi Arabia balance their U.S. Treasury holdings with increased renminbi transactions [5] - The financial strategy of reducing exposure to U.S. Treasuries is aimed at creating a buffer for domestic enterprises in overseas financing and energy imports, preparing for potential economic turbulence [5]

美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 1月19日，日本国债收益率飙升，此前有关可能削减食品税的报道在预计将于下月举行的提前选举前重 新引发了财政担忧。日本30年期国债收益率一度上升逾10个基点至3.59%，达到推出以来的最高水平， 而10年期和20年期国债收益率均升至1999年以来的最高水平。 在上述变化前，共同社报道称执政联盟正考虑一项税收方案，其中将包括暂停征收消费税，并计划最早 于明年1月实施。由日本最大的反对党和前执政联盟伙伴合并而成的新党派"中道改革联合"（Centrist Reform Alliance）也在考虑在保持财政纪律、不发行额外赤字债券的前提下，寻求降低消费税。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market, particularly the performance of the 30-year government bonds and their relative attractiveness compared to other debt instruments such as local government bonds and credit loans [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Weak Performance of 30-Year Bonds**: The 30-year government bonds are underperforming due to a widening yield spread compared to 10-year bonds (from 40 basis points to over 45 basis points) and low historical spreads with local government bonds, indicating a lack of attractiveness in the current market environment [2][5]. 2. **Negative Premium Factors**: The bonds exhibit a "negative premium" due to their high liquidity and elasticity, which are typically favorable traits but have become detrimental in a rising interest rate environment. This makes them more susceptible to short-selling [2][5]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: There is a shift in funding structure, with capital flowing out of the banking system into wealth management and insurance sectors, leading to increased selling pressure on high liquidity assets like the 30-year bonds [2][5]. 4. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: - Focus on local government bonds or credit loans with slightly lower ratings but longer durations, as these are expected to perform more stably in the current market [1][6]. - Utilize short-term credit loans for hedging purposes to mitigate risks [6]. - Consider older issues of long-term government bonds that still offer some yield advantage [6]. 5. **Future Yield Spread Expectations**: The yield spreads between the 30-year bonds and other instruments (local bonds, 10-year bonds, and credit loans) are expected to continue widening, with limited short-term recovery windows [7]. 6. **Market Behavior Around Holidays**: Investors are likely to shift towards low-volatility assets around the Spring Festival, increasing demand for credit loans and local bonds, which can provide stable returns [8]. 7. **Credit Bond Market Trends**: The credit bond market is showing strong buying interest despite short-term funding constraints, with significant increases in trading volumes and a focus on medium to long-term assets [9][11]. 8. **Institutional Behavior**: There is a divergence in institutional behavior, with short-term assets being dominated by funds and wealth management, while medium to long-term assets are being accumulated by funds and insurance companies [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Yield Movements**: The yield on one-year AAA medium-term notes fluctuated between 1.69% and 1.71%, indicating a lack of downward momentum despite strong institutional demand [11]. - **Market Risks**: The bond market faces risks from potential valuation corrections due to cooling equity markets and the risk of forced redemptions leading to valuation compression [16]. - **Investment Focus for 2026**: Recommendations include focusing on sectors supported by national industrial policies and those with growth potential, particularly in technology and resource sectors [17][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the bond market, investment strategies, and future expectations.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to continue its "steepening" trend, with short-term yields declining due to interest rate cuts, while long-term yields remain volatile due to economic outlook and fiscal sustainability concerns [4] - By January 9, 2026, the iBoxx China USD bond index yield reached 4.82%, highlighting the existing premium between offshore and onshore markets, and suggesting that high coupon opportunities are worth attention [4] Group 2 - The supply side shows a slight decrease in the maturity scale of China USD bonds in 2026 compared to 2025, with a "borrow new to repay old" logic potentially leading to a contraction in supply [5] - Regulatory tightening on local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and the gradual implementation of domestic debt replacement with foreign debt are expected to limit the growth of supply in this sector [5] Group 3 - On the demand side, there is a strong ongoing demand for high-yield assets due to insufficient supply, and the expansion of the "southbound trading" is expected to attract incremental funds, leading to a steady increase in demand for China USD bonds in 2026 [6] - However, the appreciation expectation of the Renminbi may increase the foreign exchange risk for investors, potentially raising their hedging costs [6] Group 4 - In the context of ongoing "debt reduction" policies, the default risk for local government financing vehicles is relatively low, and their USD bonds are less affected by international factors, making them a stable investment option [8] - For industrial bonds, those from state-owned enterprises and the TMT sector are considered valuable for allocation, while local state-owned enterprises and policy-driven industries may see moderate downshifting [8] - Financial USD bonds from joint-stock banks and bank-affiliated financial companies are recommended for their good liquidity and potential yield exploration [8] - The credit risk in the real estate USD bond sector remains high, necessitating caution following market sentiment shifts after events like Vanke's extension [8]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the need for a stable and improving capital market while addressing complex challenges from both internal and external risks, aiming for high-quality development and effective risk management in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Stability and Regulation - The CSRC aims to consolidate the market's stable upward trend by enhancing market monitoring and timely counter-cyclical adjustments, reinforcing trading and information disclosure regulations, and preventing market manipulation [2] - Continued reforms in public funds are planned to broaden long-term funding sources and promote products suitable for long-term investment, fostering a market ecosystem that encourages "long money" investments [2] Group 2: Reform and Development - The focus will be on improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of the multi-tiered equity market, implementing reforms in the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), and enhancing the convenience and flexibility of refinancing [3] - The bond market will undergo quality improvements, structural adjustments, and total volume expansions, while the pilot of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) will be smoothly advanced [3] Group 3: Regulatory Enforcement - The CSRC will intensify market discipline and crack down on financial fraud, price manipulation, and insider trading, while improving the connection between administrative and criminal mechanisms [4] - There will be a focus on enhancing the regulatory framework for private equity funds and leveraging technology to improve regulatory capabilities [4] Group 4: Corporate Governance and Value Growth - The CSRC plans to enhance the operational standards of listed companies and implement new regulations on corporate governance, focusing on the behavior of controlling shareholders and improving systems for dividends, buybacks, and employee stock ownership [3] - Efforts will be made to invigorate the mergers and acquisitions market and ensure comprehensive supervision throughout the restructuring process [3] Group 5: Internationalization and Market Openness - The CSRC aims to deepen the two-way opening of the capital market, optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme and expanding the range of futures products available for foreign investment [3] - Enhancements in the regulatory framework for overseas listings will be pursued to improve transparency and standardization [3] Group 6: Futures Market Development - The futures market is transitioning from scale expansion to functional deepening and quality enhancement, aligning with China's economic strength and improving its capacity to serve the real economy [5] - The focus will be on developing products and risk management tools suitable for long-term investments, which are crucial for attracting stable long-term capital [6]

2026年开年以来，债市持续疲软。 多位市场人士在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，近期股市连阳走势对债市形成了较大压力。与此同时， 债市还承受着超长债供给增加等多重压力，因此年初以来易跌难涨。 "目前，市场担忧的核心问题还是超长债的供需。投资者对于市场机构无法承接超长债发行的担忧，不 但使得30年期国债收益率明显上升，市场的整体情绪也受到了较大拖累。"李一爽表示，月初公布的1月 关键期限国债发行规模较大，部分区域地方债超长期占比仍然较高，这也给市场情绪带来了一定的扰 动。 尹睿哲也表示，一方面，市场在去年末已持续面临供需层面的潜在挑战，由此带来的担忧在开年阶段有 所显化，国债和地方债发行节奏偏快、单只规模偏大，无疑也对市场情绪形成扰动；另一方面，央行在 二级市场买卖债操作的规模保持相对克制，也使得债市参与者对宽货币的预期趋于谨慎。 同时，商品价格在开年时段大幅走强，与权益市场形成共振，这又对债市构成额外压力。另外，去年末 部分基金或存在冲量行为，后于年初退出而加剧了市场的短期抛压，使得债市在本就偏弱的环境中承受 了更为集中的调整压力。 机构普遍认为，一季度债市仍然存在较多不确定性。年初行情或延续此前较为占优的交易 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative analysis[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The bond market rebounded slightly last week due to the central bank's 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation, a 25BP reduction in the structural monetary policy tool rate, good December import - export growth, weak December financial data, consecutive negative growth in household loans for three months, and the A - share market correction [1][4][11][39] - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The economic stabilization since Q4 2024 was mainly due to central government leverage. With no additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 2025 and the decline in government bond financing growth, the domestic economy in Q4 remains under pressure. Also, in 2026, the Party Central Committee emphasizes high - quality development more, and the importance of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in economic aggregates has decreased. Additionally, the absolute interest rate level is low, there is heavy selling pressure in treasury bond futures, and investor sentiment is generally weak [2][3][12][13] - The 30 - 10 spread of treasury bonds reached a new high this week and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term. The spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Long - term Bond Review - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation and reduced the structural monetary policy tool rate by 25BP. December import - export growth was good, but December financial data was weak, with household loans in negative growth for the third consecutive month. Along with the A - share correction, the bond market rebounded slightly. The trading activity of long - term bonds decreased slightly last week but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of long - term bonds widened [1][4][11] Long - term Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of January 16, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering economic and policy factors, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12] - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of January 16, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 15BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13] Long - term Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding long - term bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of long - term bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 24.4329 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 12 - 16, 2026), the issuance of long - term bonds dropped sharply to 83.7 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 32 billion yuan, local government bonds were 51.7 billion yuan, and other varieties had zero issuance. By term, the 30 - year variety had the largest issuance [19] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced long - term bond issuance plan for this week is 102.2 billion yuan, including 10.12 billion yuan of long - term local government bonds and 1 billion yuan of long - term medium - term notes [25] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, long - term bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 879.5 billion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week, with a decrease in turnover and proportion in most varieties, except for an increase in long - term local government bonds and long - term government agency bonds [27][28] Yield - Due to various factors, the bond market rebounded slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to different extents. Representative individual bonds also had corresponding yield changes [39][40] Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, a 4BP change from the previous week, at the 35th percentile since 2010 [46] - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds, and 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 15BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 1BP and 2BP from the previous week, at the 14th and 20th percentiles since 2010 [47] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 111.16 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The total trading volume was 542,700 lots (- 18,010 lots), and the open interest was 140,000 lots (- 8,274 lots). Both trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous week [52]