报告导读： 随着十一长假结束，资金回流，市场对10月四中全会谋划"十五五"规划的政 策预期升温，风险偏好有望提振。转债有望获得支撑，届时可更积极把握结构性机会。 过去一周（9月15日-9月19日），A股市场主要指数涨跌互现。 上证指数全周下跌1.30%，沪深300指数下跌0.44%；而深证成指和创业板指则分别上涨1.14%和 2.34%，科创50指数也上涨了1.84%。市场成交活跃度较前一周有所提升，日均成交额约为2.52万亿元，周四单日成交额一度放大至3.17万亿元，但周五又大幅 缩量至2.35万亿元。从风格看，小盘指数略跑赢大盘指数，成长风格相对占优。行业表现方面，市场整体在美联储降息落地及科技事件催化下呈现结构型行 情，资金从传统金融向科技成长和低位周期类赛道转移。消费者服务、汽车、电子、煤炭、家电行业涨幅居前，芯片、光刻机、人形机器人板块继续受到资金 青睐，有色金属、银行、非银行业跌幅居前。 转债市场整体呈现调整态势，中证转债指数承压下行，累计下跌1.55%。 转债等权指数下跌1.29%，跌幅大于转债正股等权指数。转债高价低溢价率指数和转 债双低指数跌幅大于转债低价指数，大盘转债跌幅大于中小盘转债。转 ...

多图速览>> 本周（9月15日至19日）三大指数涨跌不一，沪指本周下跌1.30%，深成指涨1.14%，创业板指涨2.34%。 | 指数 | 周五涨跌幅 | 周五收盘点数 | 周五成交额（亿元） | 近一周涨跌幅 | स्टे | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | -0.30% | 3820 | 10163 | -1.30% | | | 深证成指 | -0.04% | 13071 | 13075 | 1.14% | 2 | | 北证50 | -0.83% | 1578 | 259 | -1.43% | 5 | | 科创50 | -1.28% | 1363 | 1013 | 1.84% | | | 创业板指 | -0.16% | 3091 | 5994 | 2.34% | 4 | | 下证50 | -0.11% | 2910 | 1633 | -1.98% | 8 | | 泊深300 | 0.08% | 4502 | 6039 | -0.44% | 1 | ►牛熊股：7股周涨超40%，最牛股周涨超60% Wind数据显示，本周（9月15日至9月19日）共 ...

Group 1 - The market is transitioning to a phase of oscillating upward movement, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points and potentially two more times within the year [1][2] - The net inflow of funds into the market is significant, with a total supply of 137.2 billion and demand of 77.4 billion, resulting in a net inflow of 59.8 billion [2][9] - The issuance of equity financing has slightly decreased, with a total of 10.384 billion raised compared to 11.737 billion in the previous period, reflecting a 12% decrease [27] Group 2 - The issuance of new shares in equity public funds has increased slightly, with a total of 42.854 billion shares issued compared to 41.914 billion previously, marking a 2.24% change [11][12] - Northbound trading activity has seen a slight decline, with the proportion of northbound trading volume in the total A-share trading volume decreasing from 14.54% to 14.39% [12][15] - Margin financing has shown a net inflow of 88.382 billion, a decrease of 54.75% from the previous period, indicating a cooling in market investment sentiment [17][19] Group 3 - The net inflow of southbound funds has significantly increased, reaching 85.913 billion, a 132.55% change from the previous period, indicating a strong market sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks [37] - The net subscription amount for stock ETFs has narrowed to 5.936 billion from 12.232 billion, showing a decrease in recent inflows [23][24] - The scale of locked-up shares being released has decreased, with a total of 122.414 billion compared to 162.112 billion previously, reflecting a downward trend in A-share unlock scale [33][35]

不过，这个计划并没有按照特朗普的预期顺利进行。美国要求盟友们一起对中国和印度加税，但这个提议没有得到支持，反而 遇到了两大"坏消息"。日本、欧盟和印度都不愿意跟美国一起行动，反而选择独立做决定。美国在这件事上越来越孤立，给特 朗普带来了很大的外交压力。 那么，特朗普为什么这么坚持要对中国和印度加税呢？他的目的就是通过经济手段逼迫两国停止支持俄罗斯，从而削弱俄罗斯 的战争资金。不过，这个计划并不如预期那样顺利进行。大多数国家没有支持美国的要求，而是根据自己的经济利益做出了独 立判断。 美国要求的100%的高额关税遭遇了广泛反对。很多国家认为，这样的制裁不仅会影响全球经济，还会对它们的贸易关系造成 严重冲击。毕竟，中国和印度分别是全球第二和第三大经济体，它们和欧盟、印度及其他西方国家有着紧密的经济关系。如果 贸然加征关税，可能不仅会影响中印两国的经济，还可能引发全球贸易冲突。 特朗普的第一个坏消息来自日本。日本财务大臣加藤胜信明确表示，仅仅因为中国和印度从俄罗斯购买石油，就对它们征收 50%的关税，是完全不能接受的。日本的经济高度依赖对外贸易，特别是和中国的贸易关系非常密切。日本的汽车、机械、电 子产业都需要大量 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has led to a temporary decline in market sentiment [1][3][4] - Historically, the A-share market shows a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with trading volume typically decreasing before the holiday and improving afterward, leading to a rebound in major indices [2][4] - The current market adjustment is viewed as a short-term phenomenon, with long-term upward momentum still expected for the indices [1][3][6] Group 2 - The probability of major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising after the National Day holiday exceeds 60%, indicating a strong likelihood of recovery [2] - A shift in market style is anticipated in the fourth quarter, with a potential rotation towards defensive sectors as investors take profits from previously outperforming sectors [8] - The long-term growth narrative for A-shares remains intact, driven by improvements in corporate profitability and supportive domestic policies [7][11] Group 3 - The current market environment is characterized by increased volatility, with a focus on sectors that align with policy expectations and emerging trends in technology and consumption [4][10][12] - The trend of Chinese manufacturing companies expanding their global presence is expected to enhance their market capitalization and profitability [9] - Investment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy, as well as in cyclical industries benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics [10][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with both the banking and liquor sectors facing structural challenges despite their traditional defensive attributes [1] - The banking sector is constrained by a continuous narrowing of net interest margins and weak credit demand, while the liquor industry is pressured by high inventory levels and slow consumption recovery [1] - There is a lack of strong catalysts for both sectors in the short term, raising concerns about insufficient valuation recovery momentum [1] Group 2: Trading Activity - The total trading volume across the three markets reached 3.17 trillion yuan, ranking as the fourth highest in history and third highest this year, indicating that capital remains in the market but is shifting away from previously hot sectors [3] - The STAR Market saw a record trading volume of 361 billion yuan, with the electronics sector accounting for nearly 60% of this volume, highlighting a significant concentration of trading activity [5] - The top three stocks in the STAR Market, including Cambrian, SMIC, and Haiguang Information, collectively accounted for 67.7 billion yuan, representing nearly 20% of the total trading volume [5] Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The STAR 50 index has seen a continuous rise for seven days, with a current price-to-earnings ratio nearing 180 times, suggesting that investors would need to wait 179 years to recoup their investment based on current profits, indicating a significant overvaluation [7] - The excessive concentration of funds in certain stocks has led to volatility, as the market corrects after previous rapid increases, suggesting a need to deflate the bubble [8] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite recent declines, the underlying support for the current market rally remains intact, with expectations of moving out of deflation still present [12] - The macroeconomic environment is not expected to improve rapidly, and it may take several months for the effects of monetary policy to translate into the real economy [13] - The current market adjustment is viewed as a necessary step to solidify the foundation for future growth, with supportive policies and external factors, such as the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, providing a favorable backdrop for the A-share market [15] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on segments of the technology supply chain that have real orders and can deliver, as well as cyclical sub-industries that are beginning to see price recovery [17] - High dividend sectors, such as banking and liquor, are currently less favorable for defensive strategies, with a recommendation to avoid these areas in favor of growth-oriented investments [19] - The current market fluctuations should not deter long-term investment strategies, as the overall trend remains positive, and maintaining a focus on profitable sectors is crucial for future returns [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will review the initial public offering (IPO) of Moore Threads on September 26, aiming to raise 8 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Moore Threads plans to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and seeks to raise 8 billion yuan through its IPO [1] - The company has direct and indirect stakes in various sectors, including electronics, computers, and communications [1] - Directly invested companies include Heertai (002402) and Yingqu Technology (002925), while indirectly invested companies include Honglida, Chuling Information (300250), and Changfei Fiber (601869) [1] Group 2: Market Performance - As of September 19, the average annual increase for the directly or indirectly invested companies is nearly 35%, with Changfei Fiber and Heertai exceeding 100% [1] - Financing data shows that as of September 18, these companies have seen an overall increase of nearly 30% in financing from investors this year [1] - Six companies, including Changfei Fiber, Heertai, and Ruifeng New Materials (300910), have received over 30% increase in financing from investors [1] Group 3: Investment Backers - In addition to A-share companies, notable investors in Moore Threads include Tencent, Lenovo, Sequoia Capital, and Houshu Capital [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the trend of strong stocks and weak bonds continued, with increased differentiation in the stock market. The trading volume of the stock market increased overall, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 leading the gains, while micro - cap stocks continued to decline with reduced volume. The technology sector remained the main theme, and the leading sectors were either previously strong or previously stagnant, possibly due to the phased game of existing funds. New marginal pricing forces have joined the market, and the preference of existing funds has changed [5]. - Leveraged funds continue to contribute incremental strength, with their industry distribution becoming more "even" and popular stocks experiencing "de - crowding". Quant funds are no longer the marginal pricing force driving the rise of micro - cap stocks. Domestic funds are shifting from popular to unpopular sectors, while foreign funds are showing an obvious inflow trend. Bank wealth management is accelerating the market through "fixed - income +" products. The investment preferences of insurance and foreign funds are changing [5][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Asset Price Performance 3.1.1. Major Asset Classes - Global stock markets in most countries rose to varying degrees this week, with the US NASDAQ leading the gains. Commodity prices were differentiated, with precious metals rising and non - ferrous metals and crude oil falling. The US dollar index remained basically unchanged, while the exchange rates of the RMB, Hong Kong dollar, and New Taiwan dollar continued to strengthen. Bonds were relatively weak, with the yields of Chinese, US, and Japanese government bonds rising to varying degrees. Chinese assets performed strongly, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.6% this week, and the RMB and Hong Kong dollar exchange rates strengthening since the end of July and early August respectively [14]. 3.1.2. A - share Market - The ChiNext (2.3%) led the gains among broad - based indices, followed by the STAR 50 (1.8%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (1.1%). The micro - cap stocks led the decline. The trading volume of micro - cap stocks decreased, and their trading volume has dropped by 31% from the August high. Medium - cap stocks continued to outperform large - cap and small - cap stocks, as indicated by the decline in the CSI 300/CSI 1000 ratio and the continuous increase in the CSI 500/CSI 1000 ratio [16][20][25]. - The top five sectors in terms of gains were automobiles (3.6%), electronics (3.4%), power equipment (3.3%), household appliances (2.3%), and machinery (2.2%). Except for electronics and power equipment, the leading sectors were previously stagnant [28]. Capital Behavior Tracking 3.2.1. Index Trends and Capital Preferences - Recently, the ChiNext, STAR 50, and CSI 300 have continued to reach new highs, while previously it was micro - cap stocks and dividend (bank) stocks. The change in index trends indicates that the investment preferences and dominant capital have changed [35]. 3.2.2. Leveraged Funds - The proportion of margin trading volume in A - share trading volume continued to rise this week, reaching a new high since 2023. Leveraged funds are flowing into industries that were previously net - sold or had low net - buying volumes in margin trading, and where the proportion of margin trading balances to market capitalization is low, such as transportation, food and beverage, banks, household appliances, and petroleum and petrochemicals. Popular stocks have shown "de - crowding", with the proportion of leveraged funds in popular stocks dropping from a high of 5.75% at the end of August to 1.86%. The net margin buying of the ChiNext and STAR 50 has significantly decreased, while that of the CSI 1000 and SSE 50 has increased significantly [37][41][44]. 3.2.3. Quant Funds - Since late August, the excess return of quant index - enhanced funds has significantly decreased, turning from positive to negative, which is almost simultaneous with the peak and decline of micro - cap stocks. The basis of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures has widened, indicating an increase in the hedging and risk - aversion needs of quant funds [50][51][56]. 3.2.4. Main Funds - The main funds of the CSI 300 have had continuous net outflows for five days. In the past week, main funds have almost withdrawn from all industries, with significant outflows from sectors such as computers, electronics, power equipment, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals, and inflows into sectors such as real estate, textile and apparel, and steel on the last two trading days [59][64]. 3.2.5. North - bound Funds - The total trading volume of north - bound funds increased significantly on Thursday and Friday this week, accounting for a new high of 13.9% of A - share trading volume on Friday. After the increase in north - bound trading volume on Thursday, the SSE 50 Connect rebounded, and the average increase of heavy - position stocks of north - bound funds on Friday was higher than the weekly median [66][70]. 3.2.6. Wealth Management Fund Transfer - From January to August this year, the new non - bank deposits reached approximately 6.4 trillion yuan, with about 3 trillion yuan added in July and August. The proportion of non - bank deposits in M2 has increased, in contrast to the decline in the proportion of storage - type institutions [75]. 3.2.7. Hong Kong Stock Market - Since August, the net buying and trading volume of south - bound funds flowing into the Hong Kong stock market have increased. In the past two weeks, the total trading volume of south - bound funds and their proportion in the Hong Kong stock market turnover have rebounded. The net buying volume of south - bound funds has decreased slightly compared to last week but remains at a relatively high level. South - bound funds mainly flow into sectors such as commerce and retail, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology. In the past week, the communication sector has changed from net outflows to net inflows [84][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index is "Volatility" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the A-share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with obvious divergence in market confidence. The A-share market pricing is confusing and shows obvious characteristics of building a top at a high level. It is recommended to take appropriate profit-taking [2][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One-week Views and Overview of Key Macroeconomic Events - **Next Week's Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the change in risk appetite after the Sino-US talks. It is recommended to take appropriate profit-taking due to the confusing pricing clues and obvious high-level topping characteristics in the current A-share market [2][10] - **This Week's Key Events**: - On September 15, an important article by the national leader will be published in Qiushi Magazine, aiming to rectify chaos in enterprise competition and government procurement [11] - On September 15, the economic data for August showed a weakening trend, with declines in consumption, industrial added value, investment, etc [12] - On September 16, 9 departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption [13] - On September 16, the Premier of the State Council investigated new quality productivity-related fields [14] - On September 17, the Ministry of Commerce will select 50 new consumption pilot cities [15] - On September 18, it was reported that China's R & D investment intensity in 2024 exceeded the EU average [16] - On September 19, the President of China had a phone call with the President of the United States [17] - On September 19, the State Council executive meeting studied policies on implementing domestic product standards in government procurement [18] 2. One-week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From September 15 - 19, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.99%, with emerging markets (+1.55%) > developed markets (+0.97%) > frontier markets (-0.01%). The Dutch stock market led the world with a 6.23% increase, while the Australian stock market performed the worst with a 2.17% decline [20] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: During the same period, Chinese equity assets were differentiated, with Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks > A-shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2518.1 billion yuan, a 191.4 billion yuan increase from last week. The ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, performing the best, while the Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.98%, performing poorly [23] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the information technology industry leading (+2.47%) and the real estate industry performing poorly (-1.32%). In the Chinese market, the real estate industry led the rise (+1.94%), while the financial industry lagged (-3.90%) [27] - **Weekly Overview of China's A-share CITIC Primary Industries**: This week, 16 out of the A-share CITIC primary industries rose (26 last week), and 14 fell (4 last week). The coal industry led the rise (+3.59%), while the banking industry lagged the most (-4.09%) [30] - **Weekly Overview of China's A-share Style**: The large-cap growth style was dominant this week [34] - **Overview of Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [37][41] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad-based Index Valuation**: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various broad-based indexes this week, their eight-year percentile, and changes from the beginning of the year are presented [42] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various primary industries this week, their eight-year percentile, and changes from the beginning of the year are presented [43] - **Broad-based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300 rose rapidly this week, while that of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 declined slightly [44][49] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast for Broad-based Indexes**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.40%, and in 2026 was lowered to 8.53%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 rate was lowered to 32.14%, and the 2026 rate was raised to 18.08%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 rate was raised to 38.54%, and the 2026 rate was lowered to 20.77% [50] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the 10-year bond yield declined, the 1-year yield rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.7, and the offshore RMB was 7.11 [56] - **Trading Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 12 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan [59] - **Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: There are 29 ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 600 million shares, the CSI 500 by 200 million shares, the CSI 1000 by 300 million shares, and the CSI A500 by 500 million shares [62][66] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macroeconomic High-frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The tire production rate rebounded slightly [69] - **Consumption Side**: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, but the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $67 per barrel [77][87] - **Inflation Observation**: The prices of production materials weakened, while agricultural product prices rebounded [89]

Group 1: Market Insights from 2014-2015 Bull Market - The market style during the bull market from 2014 to 2015 showed a pattern of "rapid rise - retreat and bottoming," with the market crowding degree reaching a low of around 20% in early July 2025 and peaking at 30% in early September 2025 [1][10] - In the first phase of the 2014-2015 bull market, financial and stable styles led the gains, but during the consolidation phase, they significantly underperformed, while growth styles gradually took the lead [1][15] - The first phase saw non-bank financials, banks, construction decoration, steel, and real estate sectors leading the gains, but all fell to the lower ranks during the adjustment phase [2][18] Group 2: Current Economic Data - In August 2025, key economic indicators showed a marginal decline, with industrial value added growing by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.75% [3][27] - Social consumption in August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, also lower than the expected 3.82%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3][36] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% in August, down from 1.6% in July, reflecting a continued decline in investment activity [3][43] Group 3: Industry Performance - In the current consolidation phase, industries such as communication, electronics, and power equipment have maintained strong performance, while the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline [2][23] - The coal sector has improved significantly, rising from 28th to 9th place in terms of performance during the adjustment phase, indicating a recovery in previously lagging industries [2][23] - The top-performing industries during the current phase include communication, electronics, and power equipment, with communication showing a gain of over 40% [2][23]