期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铁矿石年报 供需关系重构，矿价中枢有望下移 20251215 作者：曾可 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 交易咨询号：Z0022773 审核：姜世东，从业资格号：F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 供应：2026年全球铁矿供应将进入大幅增长期，主流矿、非主流矿及国内矿都有新矿山项目即将面临产能投。从四 大矿的产量指引来看，2026年力拓较2025年变动不大，BHP也仅有少量提质 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its high - level volatile operation. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2605 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall view of "wide - range oscillation". The core logic is that the current situation of the iron ore market is weak and the price is under pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a weak bias, with an overall view of wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the current pattern is weak and the ore price is under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is operating weakly. Terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, and the profitability of steel mills has not improved, so weak demand continues to put pressure on ore prices. Domestic port arrivals are falling, while overseas miners' shipments are rising, and both are still at relatively high levels within the year. Overseas ore supply is active, and although domestic ore supply is shrinking, there is still supply pressure. Currently, iron ore demand is continuously weakening while supply remains high, and the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, so the ore price is still prone to pressure. The relatively good news is that the structural contradiction in the spot market has not been resolved, and it is expected that the ore price will continue its high - level volatile operation, and the performance of steel products should be monitored [3].

铁矿周报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/10 铁水跌破去年水平 ⚫ 需求端：钢厂检修规模扩大，铁水产量延续回落态 势，目前铁水已经低于去年水平。上周247家钢厂高 炉开工率78.63%，环比上周减少1.53个百分点，同比 去年减少1.92个百分点，日均铁水产量 229.2万吨， 环比上周减少3.10万吨，同比去年减少3.27万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿到港量减少，发运增加，均处 于历史同期高位水平，港口库存处于高位，供应压力 不减。上周全球铁矿石发运总3368.6万吨，环比增加 45.4万吨。库 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand expectation for iron ore has weakened marginally, leading to a price correction. The iron ore's high valuation is hard to sustain. With recent macro - events settled, the ore price has corrected from its high. However, the excessive decline in coal and coke has triggered the seesaw effect between ore and coke. Coupled with positive policies on the downstream demand side, the depth of the ore price correction is relatively limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply 3.1.1 Overseas Shipment - Global iron ore shipment remains at a relatively high level. The non - mainstream supply mainly has incremental growth from India and Canada. Rumors about the negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP are ongoing, and some ore brands may be affected [5] - In the latest week, global shipment is 3368.6 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 45.4 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 706.1 thousand tons. The cumulative shipment from the beginning of the year to the 49th week in 2025 is 153173.9 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 3962 thousand tons [4] 3.1.2 Mainstream Mines - Australia and Brazil's shipment performance is neutral, and freight rates have declined. Rio Tinto has a relatively large incremental increase in shipment to China in the recent week, with a week - on - week increase of 170.5 thousand tons [17][19] 3.1.3 Non - mainstream Mines - India and Canada contribute the main incremental growth in non - mainstream supply [21] 3.1.4 Domestic Mines - The production and operation rate in Southwest China remains relatively low [29] 3.2 Demand 3.2.1 Downstream Demand - Iron - making water production, the production of major steel products, and port ore - handling volume all show signs of weakening. The 247 - enterprise iron - making water production is 2292 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31 thousand tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1 thousand tons [31][4] 3.2.2 Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel - Due to the relatively weak performance of iron ore, coal and coke prices, the cost support for iron - making water has declined, and the scrap - iron price difference has rebounded from a low level [32] 3.3 Inventory - The overall port inventory is rising, but the slope is relatively gentle [36][38] 3.4 Downstream Profits - The decline in coking coal and coke prices helps to repair downstream profits [40] 3.5 Spot Category Price Difference - The inventory contradiction of port iron concentrate has further intensified recently, and the price difference between Tangshan iron concentrate and PB powder has decreased significantly [42] 3.6 Futures Monthly Spread - The 5 - 9 monthly spread has stabilized, and the year - on - year level is lower than that of last year [44] 3.7 Basis Performance - Recently, the spot and futures price trends have been relatively consistent, and the basis performance has also stabilized [48] 3.8 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 05 contract has fluctuated weakly, closing at 754.5 yuan/ton. The position is 465,500 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 56,800 lots. The average daily trading volume is 278,900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 156,200 lots [7] 3.9 Spot Price Performance - The spot price has also declined. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) in Qingdao Port has dropped from 870 yuan/ton last week to 865 yuan/ton this week [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall inventory of iron ore continues to rise, and there are no signs of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradictions, yet the spot still has some support. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and with the implementation of export license management for some steel products starting from January 1st next year, it is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract. [11][13][14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipping volume was 33.686 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 454,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.553 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.105 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 19.674 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47 million tons, with 15.882 million tons shipped to China, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.879 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.574 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.148 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. [13] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. [13] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 161.1147 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2036 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons. [13] - **Summary**: Overseas iron ore shipping volume increased slightly. Australia's shipping volume rebounded, mainly due to the rebound of Rio Tinto and FMG's shipping volume, while Brazil's shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high this year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.3 million tons. Some blast furnace overhauls were affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rest were mainly annual inspections with relatively long shutdown times. The steel mill profitability rate declined slightly. Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory was at a low level in the same period. It is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. [13][14] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 111 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 83 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 138 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 0.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feeding ratio was 14.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 73.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,135 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Zhangjiagang was 2,060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [25] - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 13.33 yuan/wet ton. [28] - **Freight**: No specific analysis of freight changes is provided in the text, only relevant charts are presented. [30] 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 154.3142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3061 million tons. The pellet inventory was 296,470 tons, a week - on - week increase of 59,300 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.31422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 483,100 tons. The lump ore inventory was 2.05733 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,400 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 66.6743 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3676 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 58.0704 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 274,900 tons. [35][38][41] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.8342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,530 tons. [45] 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipping**: The shipping volume from Australia to China at 19 ports was 15.063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.752 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.542 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipping volume to China was 6.284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.705 million tons. BHP's shipping volume to China was 3.896 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.822 million tons. Vale's shipping volume was 4.781 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.681 million tons. FMG's shipping volume to China was 3.621 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons. [50][53][56] - **Arrival and Import**: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. In October, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2656 million tons. [59] - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 58.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 45,380 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons. [65] 3.5 Demand Side - **Pig Iron Output and Capacity Utilization**: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points. [70] - **Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1919 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 74,000 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons. [73] 3.6 Basis As of December 12th, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 61.03 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.43%. [78]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - The steel market's trading volume has weakened, and steel prices are fluctuating downward. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates are not improving enough. The arrival of the off - season for building materials demand should be monitored [1]. - Iron ore prices have slightly declined due to a drop in hot metal production. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and the release of inventory in the future may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations [3]. - A new round of price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun, and their prices are fluctuating downward. The bearish sentiment for coke is strong, and the price of coking coal is still under pressure [4][5]. - The price of thermal coal at ports and in production areas has been continuously falling. In the long - term, the supply remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3069 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3238 yuan/ton. The production, inventory, and demand of the five major steel products have all decreased. The spot trading of steel was weak, and prices in mainstream areas followed the decline of the futures market [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with both consumption and production declining, and inventory pressure easing. The fundamentals of plates are not improving enough, and high inventory is suppressing prices, requiring appropriate production cuts. The impact of off - season demand on the fundamentals should be monitored [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated weakly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports were weak. The trading volume at major ports was 99.1 million tons, a 38.60% increase from the previous period. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 229.20 million tons, a decrease of 3.10 million tons from the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments increased slightly this period, and the average daily hot metal production continued to decline. The supply - demand contradiction is still accumulating, and inventory is rising. If external factors are removed, inventory release may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. Some steel mills initiated a new round of price cuts for coke, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The price of coking coal in the main production areas continued to decline, and the price of imported Mongolian coal also decreased [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The bearish sentiment for coke is strong, the support for raw material demand is weak, and the demand for coke is weakening due to the decline in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the price of raw coal and changes in hot metal production. The sentiment for coking coal is still weak, downstream demand is limited, and coal prices are still under pressure [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is an oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of coal in the main production areas continued to decline, and there was a wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The supply in the production areas was slightly tightened due to the maintenance of some coal mines. The price at ports continued to fall, demand was weak, and trading was cold. The price of imported coal also fell rapidly and maintained a cost - performance advantage [6]. - **Demand and Logic**: Pessimistic sentiment has spread in the market recently, and coal prices are fluctuating. In the long - term, the supply remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [6]. - **Strategy**: There is no strategy provided for thermal coal [7].

Report 1: Steel Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a trend of mills reducing production and destocking, with iron - water production decreasing and raw material inventory accumulating, which drags down steel prices. The market's concern about export bottlenecks also affects steel prices. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to move within a range. Consider closing the short position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread in the January contract and re - participating in shorting the rebar to iron ore ratio in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 48, 46, and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 30, 0, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 44, 44, and 37 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab price remained unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 9 yuan/ton. - Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes. For example, East China rebar profit increased by 31 yuan/ton, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average iron - water production decreased by 30,000 tons to 2.293 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 227,000 tons to 8.062 million tons, a decline of 2.7%. - Rebar output decreased by 105,000 tons to 1.788 million tons, a decline of 5.6%. - Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.087 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 335,000 tons to 13.321 million tons, a decline of 2.5%. - Rebar inventory decreased by 243,000 tons to 4.795 million tons, a decline of 4.8%. - Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 3.971 million tons, a decline of 0.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 22,000 tons to 92,000 tons, a decline of 19.3%. - The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 245,000 tons to 8.397 million tons, a decline of 2.8%. - The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 139,000 tons to 2.031 million tons, a decline of 6.4%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.12 million tons, a decline of 0.9% [1]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish. With mills continuing to reduce production, iron - water production declining, and the market weakening, the iron ore valuation is likely to decline. It is recommended to short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The basis of 01 contract for different iron ore powders showed different changes. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 2.188 million tons to 24.805 million tons, a decline of 8.1%. - The global weekly shipping volume increased by 454,000 tons to 33.686 million tons, a rise of 1.4%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 5.006 million tons to 111.309 million tons, a decline of 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 85,000 tons to 3.185 million tons, a decline of 2.6%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49,700 tons to 65.549 million tons, a decline of 0.8%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 1.493 million tons to 71.997 million tons, a decline of 2.0% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 482,000 tons to 153.4898 million tons, a rise of 0.3%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills increased by 42,300 tons to 89.847 million tons, a rise of 0.5%. - The inventory available days of 64 mills increased by 1 day to 20 days, a rise of 5.3% [3]. Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke market is weakening, with supply and demand turning unfavorable. The coke futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 1450 - 1600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is also facing downward pressure. The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 950 - 1100 yuan/ton. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased by 36 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%, and the 05 contract decreased by 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.6%. - The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 29 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.0%, and the 05 contract decreased by 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.3%. - The profit of sample coal mines decreased by 16 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The daily average output of 247 mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons. - Coking coal production: The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased. The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [4]. Demand - Coke demand: The iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decline of 1.3%. - Coking coal demand: The coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showed a slight decline [4]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 20.8 tons to 903.8 tons, a rise of 2.4%. The inventories of all - sample coking plants, 247 mills, and ports showed different changes. - Coking coal inventory: The inventories of Fenwei coal mines, all - sample coking plants, and ports increased, while the inventory of 247 mills decreased [4]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 2.5 tons to - 1.9 tons, a change of 31.3% [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The demand for iron ore is in a weak pattern and continues to put pressure on prices. Overseas ore supply is positive, and the overall supply remains high. Due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and the support of black - variety arbitrage, iron ore prices are running at a high level. However, with weakening demand and high supply, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is limited. The iron ore price will maintain a high - level shock, and caution should be exercised regarding the shift of the trading logic to the real - world situation [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,431.42, with a week - on - week increase of 130.61 and a monthly increase of 221.30 compared to the end of last month. It's 112.04 higher than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,831.20, with a week - on - week decrease of 153.53 and a monthly decrease of 111.28 compared to the end of last month. It's 341.84 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,480.50, with a week - on - week decrease of 218.80 and a monthly decrease of 336.60 compared to the end of last month. It's 301.50 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The global iron ore shipping volume is 3,368.56, with a week - on - week increase of 45.41 and a monthly increase of 90.14 compared to the end of last month. It's 357.66 higher than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 229.20, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.10 and a monthly decrease of 5.48 compared to the end of last month. It's 6.60 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports is 319.19, with a week - on - week increase of 0.74 and a monthly decrease of 12.39 compared to the end of last month. It's 7.79 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 283.27, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.80 and a monthly decrease of 6.16 compared to the end of last month. It's 9.34 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 99.15, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.39 and a monthly decrease of 4.57 compared to the end of last month. It's 10.83 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is facing a significant psychological test as prices approach the critical $100 per ton mark, with recent trading showing a downward trend in Singapore iron ore futures prices [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of early December, iron ore inventories at Chinese ports reached a record high of 159 million tons, an increase of approximately 15 million tons from the beginning of the year, primarily due to sustained high overseas shipments [5] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills dropped to 2.323 million tons, a decrease of 133,400 tons from the year's peak, indicating a contraction in demand [5][7] - Despite a clear oversupply in the market, iron ore prices saw a temporary increase, with the Platts 62% index rebounding from $102.05 per ton in early November to $107.80 per ton [3] Financial and Trading Behavior - Steel mills' profitability has deteriorated significantly, with profit margins dropping from 68.4% in August to 36.36%, leading to over 60% of companies reporting losses [7] - The financial attributes of iron ore have notably increased in the second half of 2025, with a surge in open interest for Singapore iron ore futures contracts, indicating speculative trading behavior [7] - Trade speculation has distorted price signals, with the premium for mainstream spot varieties like PB powder rising from zero to $1.2 per ton since late October [7][9] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment is being supported by expectations surrounding the central economic work conference in mid-December, with some investors betting on policies aimed at boosting domestic demand in 2026 [9] - The supply side also faces uncertainties, such as the Guinea Simandou project's initial shipments, which are not expected to have a substantial impact until early 2026 [11] - The overall market remains characterized by a significant divergence, with mainstream medium-grade ores maintaining relatively stable prices while low-grade ores face substantial inventory buildup [11] Regional Demand Variations - Regional demand shows notable differences, with East China experiencing a slight increase in pig iron production due to improved rebar profits, while Central China saw a decrease due to maintenance activities [13] - The export market has been a bright spot, with cumulative steel billet exports reaching 11.9 million tons from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 157%, although this trend is beginning to slow [13] Price Projections - Despite short-term price fluctuations, the cost range is expected to provide a bottom support, with high-cost mines' cash costs exceeding $90 per ton [15] - The Platts 62% index is projected to fluctuate within a narrow range of $99 to $105 per ton in 2025, with forecasts suggesting a further decline to $95 to $100 per ton in 2026 [15]