Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]

Market Performance - On the last trading day of July, all three major A-share indices fell by over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below 3600 points at 3573.21, down 1.18% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.73% to 11009.77, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.66% to 2328.31 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.96 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that saw gains included liquid cooling IDC, assisted reproduction, Google, biopharmaceuticals, chemical pharmaceuticals, and computers [1] - Conversely, sectors that experienced declines included aquaculture, PTA, iron ore, energy metals, steel, and minor metals [1] Notable Stocks - The AI sector showed strong fluctuations, with Yidian Tianxia (301171) hitting the 20% daily limit up [1] - The liquid cooling server sector performed well, with Sihua New Materials (301489) also reaching the 20% limit up, alongside Yingweike (002837) and Chunz中科技 (603516) [1] - The assisted reproduction sector continued to strengthen, with Gongtong Pharmaceutical (300966) and Anke Biotechnology (300009) both hitting the 20% limit up, while Hanshang Group (600774) also reached the limit [1] - The steel sector faced adjustments, with Baogang Co. (600010) dropping over 8% [1] - The coal sector declined across the board, with Antai Group (600408) falling over 7% [1] Market Outlook - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the A-share market is expected to continue a structural trend in August, supported by the intensive disclosure of mid-term performance and ongoing policy efforts, favoring industries with high earnings certainty [1] - Dongfang Securities noted that the current A-share market is in a sustained upward trend with ample trading volume, attracting new capital, and maintaining a cautiously optimistic sentiment without immediate risk of reversal [2]

Group 1: Spot Market - Newman powder price is 769, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -14, and the import profit is -21.93 [1] - PB powder price is 772, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -16, and the import profit is -2.27 [1] - Mac powder price is 759, with a daily change of -8 and a weekly change of -11, and the import profit is 1.66 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 745, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -10, and the import profit is 5.66 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder price is 703, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of -22, and the import profit is 3.71 [1] - Super special powder price is 647, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -19, and the import profit is -8.46 [1] - Carajás powder price is 874, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -14, and the import profit is -17.38 [1] - Brazilian blend price is 802, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -18, and the import profit is -10.09 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 762, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -16 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 767, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -16 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 860, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of -17 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 734, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -10 [1] - Karara concentrate price is 858, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of -19 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 742, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -16, and the import profit is 2.27 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 832, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -16 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 592, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -29 [1] - Atlas powder price is 698, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of -22 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 929, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -10 [1] Group 2: Futures Market - i2601 contract price is 766.0, with a daily change of -4.5 and a weekly change of -18.0, and the monthly spread is 23.0 [1] - i2605 contract price is 745.5, with a daily change of -3.5 and a weekly change of -17.0, and the monthly spread is 20.5 [1] - i2509 contract price is 789.0, with a daily change of -9.0 and a weekly change of -23.0, and the monthly spread is -43.5 [1] - FE01 contract price is 101.31, with a daily change of 2.09 and a weekly change of -2.26, and the monthly spread is 1.43 [1] - FE05 contract price is 99.06, with a daily change of 2.02 and a weekly change of -2.29, and the monthly spread is 2.25 [1] - FE09 contract price is 102.74, with a daily change of 1.95 and a weekly change of -2.70, and the monthly spread is -3.68 [1]

Report Title - Black Sector R & D Report: Iron Ore Monthly Report for August 2025 (dated July 31, 2025) [1][7] Core Viewpoint - The market game intensifies, and iron ore prices remain at a high level [1] Summary by Section 1. Iron Ore Market Data Review - Multiple charts show historical price trends of iron ore, including 62% Platts iron ore price, PB powder price, price spreads between different ore types, and basis and spreads of futures contracts [9][15][17] 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Import quantity charts show the historical import volumes of iron ore from different regions such as Australia, Brazil, and India, as well as the global shipping volume of iron ore [30][31][36] - A table presents the supply - side data of major iron ore producers from 2020 to 2026E, including RIO, BHP, FMG, etc., along with their year - on - year changes in 2025 and 2026 [57] - Charts display the global shipping volumes of iron ore from different sources like non - Australia and Brazil, non - top four mines, and domestic refined powder production and inventory [62][69][74] Demand Side - Charts show relevant data reflecting iron ore demand, such as real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate, domestic manufacturing inventory cycle, and iron ore consumption in the steel industry (including domestic and overseas) [85][95][100] - Inventory - related charts show the inventory status of imported iron ore at ports, in trade, and the total inventory of the entire iron - element industrial chain [110][112] 3. Iron Ore Market Outlook - No specific content in the provided text for this part, but the section is named "Iron Ore Market Outlook" [116]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Considering the limited spot inventory, it is advisable to operate on the low side during price corrections. Pay attention to 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in these regions all dropped by 60 yuan/ton. Futures prices also decreased significantly, with the rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 107 yuan, 108 yuan, and 110 yuan respectively, and the hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 103 yuan, 110 yuan, and 109 yuan respectively [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 80 yuan to 3080 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China increased by 48 yuan, and the profit of rebar in South China increased by 38 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a rise of 1.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar output increased by 2.9 to 212.0, a rise of 1.4%, with converter output increasing by 5.4 to 188.0 (a 2.9% increase) and electric - furnace output decreasing by 2.5 to 23.9 (a 9.3% decrease). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 3.6 to 317.5, a decline of 1.1% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 1336.5, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.6 to 538.6, a decline of 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.3 to 345.2, a rise of 0.7% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a decline of 13.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a rise of 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - In the future, pig iron output in July will remain high, with an average expected to stay around 2.4 million tons per day. Improving steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore. Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 4.4 to 793.4, a rise of 0.6%, while the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines decreased by 2.2 to 818.4, a decline of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties generally increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.5 to - 43.5, a rise of 11.2%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.5 to 23.0, a decline of 16.4% [3] - **Supply**: The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a decline of 5.5%. The global weekly shipping volume increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a rise of 3.0%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, a rise of 8.0% [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [3] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a decline of 0.8%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a rise of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a rise of 5.0% [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Coke**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coke and short on iron ore, while avoiding exchange intervention risks. - **Coking Coal**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore, also avoiding exchange intervention risks [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1296 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased by 44 yuan and 50 yuan respectively. The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/week [4] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 4 yuan, and the 01 contract increased by 18 yuan. The sample coal mine profit increased by 27 yuan/week, a rise of 8.3% [4] - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6, a rise of 0.6%, and the weekly average daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, a rise of 0.1%. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 4.3 to 862.3, a decline of 0.5%, and clean coal output decreasing by 1.5 to 441.0, a decline of 0.3% [4] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the relatively high pig iron output, and the demand for coking coal is also supported by the slightly increased coking plant operation rate [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2, a decline of 0.8%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.4 to 80.1, a decline of 8.5%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 1.0 to 640.0, a rise of 0.2%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.5 to 132.6, a decline of 16.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4, a rise of 6.1% [4] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5, a rise of 10.2% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic macro - policies are set to continue and increase efforts, with proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to be implemented. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the market is speculating about a possible September rate cut [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares offer good investment value. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][11]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue to fluctuate. Although there are long - term drivers, the high price makes upward movement hesitant [3][19]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. However, the economic data improvement may be overestimated, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the board delegation of the US - China Business Council, emphasizing the need to establish communication channels and maintain stable Sino - US economic and trade relations [7]. - **Industry News**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new production capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacity for silicon, lithium, and magnesium [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.12%, the European STOXX 50 increased by 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.13%, the US dollar index increased by 1.06%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.98%, and gold and silver prices declined [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small - cap stocks weakening. The bank sector has performed well since 2025, and it is expected that the proportion of long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase. A - shares have high long - term investment value [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined. Overseas, the US GDP growth exceeded expectations, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits improved, and the IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices may stabilize [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose for three consecutive days. The US economic growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, but the improvement may be overestimated. US crude oil inventories increased, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.9% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated during the day. Spot prices were stable. In the short - term, they will fluctuate widely, and the market is divided. The focus is on the process of fundamental repair [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded and then declined. The summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and inventories decreased. The short - term focus is on policy implementation and fundamental digestion speed [17]. - **Rubber**: The recent rainfall in the producing areas affected rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and there were uncertainties about a September rate cut. The US economic data showed resilience, and the long - term drivers of gold still provided support, but the high price made upward movement difficult [3][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The US only imposed a 50% tariff on copper products, exempting refined copper. The processing fee for concentrates is low, and downstream demand is generally stable. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The processing fee for concentrates has been rising. Domestic demand shows mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short - term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose due to mining qualification issues. The demand in July continued to be strong, but the inventory increased. The short - term focus is on warehouse receipts, and the medium - term does not have the basis for a reversal [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production momentum of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The inventory at ports is decreasing rapidly, and the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the inventory is decreasing. Steel exports are facing challenges, but billet exports are strong. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the coke production improved. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while that in coal mines decreased. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish after adjustment [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean growth is good, and the futures price is under pressure. The domestic protein meal price is supported by concerns about soybean supply and the rise of rapeseed meal price [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed up. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the export decreased. The market is concerned about trade trends, which support the oil and fat sector [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 0.45%. The spot freight rate has begun to loosen, and the 10 - contract is at a deep discount, which provides some support. The market will gradually shift to the off - season freight rate game [30].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - For the steel sector, after the Politburo meeting, the relevant positive factors have been fully anticipated by the market, leading to a decline in futures prices. In the short - term, the steel market is in a consumption off - season, with demand expected to weaken further and inventory likely to rise. For the iron ore sector, the current high iron - water production has limited room for further increase, and the high supply and relatively high port trade - mine inventory create downward pressure on futures prices [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: After the Politburo meeting, the futures prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil rose and then fell. In terms of supply and demand, last week, the production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory increased for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties increased, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer high - temperature season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise. The market's focus will shift to the peak - season consumption from August to September [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices decreased with a reduction in positions, driven by the departure of long - position holders [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short selling can be considered during the rebound of futures prices, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss. Avoid chasing short positions rashly [2]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3483 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. The 247 - steel - mill blast - furnace operating rate was 83.46%, and the average daily iron - water output was 242.23 million tons, down 0.09% from the previous week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is fair, but the iron - water production is under great pressure to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the future arrival volume is expected to remain high. Although the port inventory is slowly decreasing, the high port trade - mine inventory exists. After the conclusion of the Sino - US trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting, the positive factors have been released, and there is significant downward pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices have stabilized in the short - term, the oscillation range has narrowed, and the direction is to be determined, expected to follow the trend of threaded steel [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short selling can be considered during the rebound of futures prices, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss. Conservative investors can stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 789 yuan/dry ton, down 1.13% from the previous day. The Australian iron - ore shipment was 1638.7 million tons, up 16.64% from the previous week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment was 731.6 million tons, down 12.19% from the previous week [4][5]. 3. Industry News - The China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The China Metal Materials Circulation Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style competition" in the steel circulation industry. The Xingtai market plans to raise the coke price. Gansu Energy Chemical's Wangjiashan Coal Mine No. 1 Well will resume production. The Ulanqab Industrial Alliance and the Ulanqab Ferroalloy Industry Association called on the industry to balance interests and resist involution. Affected by Typhoon "Zhujiecao", shipping and some wood processing in the Yangtze River's Jiangsu section have been suspended [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Consider buying on dips due to low spot inventory. Focus on 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading suggests cautious long positions, and arbitrage recommends going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore. The iron - making water output in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, speculative trading advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage suggests going long on coke and short on iron ore. For coking coal, speculative trading also advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage recommends going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China fell from 3500 yuan/ton to 3440 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 48 yuan/ton to 333 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory decreased by 1.2 to 1336.5, a 0.1% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a 13.6% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 2.2 to 818.4 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5 tons, a 5.5% decrease, while the global shipping volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9 tons, a 3.0% increase [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2 tons, a 0.7% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coke increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [4]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1117 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.3 to 862.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease [4]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4 tons, a 6.1% increase [4]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5 tons, a 10.2% increase [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weakening trend, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The current price trend is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. After the Politburo's expectations are realized, the speculation sentiment may fade, and the Sino - US negotiation setbacks put pressure on the upper limit of ore prices. However, the high production of steel mills provides continuous support. Therefore, the ore price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the results of the third round of Sino - US negotiations [7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On July 30, the main iron ore futures 2509 contract opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The prices, trading volumes, and positions of other black - series futures contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, and SS2509 also had corresponding changes [7][5]. - The spot market: On July 30, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: The Politburo meeting on July 30 mentioned deepening reforms, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order. The Sino - US third - round negotiation encountered setbacks, raising market risk - aversion sentiment [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The Australian iron ore shipments rebounded last week, and Brazilian shipments were basically the same as the previous week. The overall shipments recovered after the seasonal decline. The current weekly shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are at a medium level of about 27 million tons. The arrivals last week dropped to a relatively low level of 22.405 million tons. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals may oscillate at this level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased again, and steel enterprises maintain high production, which is expected to slow down the production - cut process and support the ore price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, emphasizing the need to do a good job in the second - half economic work, including stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and boosting consumption [13]. - On July 30, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Due to factors such as the sharp rise in coal prices, high demand for coke from steel mills, and the lag in coke price increases, the participating enterprises decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The prices of tamping wet - quenched coke, tamping dry - quenched coke, and top - charged coke were increased by 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and 75 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - The Politburo meeting on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, mainly to discuss the work report and the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting also analyzed the economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work, including deepening reforms, expanding opening - up, and preventing and resolving risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, and other data [20][23][27].