6月9日，沪锌期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约报21905.00元/吨，小幅下跌1.82%。 申银万国期货：周末夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国内汽车产销 正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供 应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 广州期货：美国经济数据疲软，特朗普呼吁美联储降息，但美联储官员发言依旧表示降息态度趋于谨 慎，地缘政治冲突不断，市场交投避险情绪仍存。海内外锌精矿TC价格趋于上涨，锌矿报价走低，周 内新增两家企业复产，贸易市场到货量增加，国内社会库存小幅累增，海内外交易所库存保持低位去 库，下游消费进入淡季，镀锌开工小幅走弱，持货商为出货调低升水，实际成交清淡。锌市库存低位， 供需两弱，短期价格上下有限，保持区间震荡运行，参考震荡区间22000-23500元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 机构观点 6月6日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：锌注册仓单75100吨，注销仓单61875吨，减少175吨；锌库存 136975吨，减少175吨。 国内外锌矿进口量上升，锌矿加工费持续 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 如何观察"以旧换新"的速度？ ❖ 以旧换新：4 月中旬以来在提速 1、数据与方法：基于商务部不定期公布的 5 大类消费品（汽车、家电、电动 车、家装厨卫、数码）以旧换新进度数据，可计算某个时间段内的日均换新数 量，我们以此观察消费品换新的速度。 2、近期消费品换新速度如何？ 5 月，消费品换新或在提速，结构上：汽车下、 家电升、电动车平。 3、物价：海外大宗品价格明显反弹，黄金、原油、铜均上涨。RJ/CRB 商品 价格指数上涨 3.6%；COMEX 黄金收于 3308.2 美金/盎司，上涨 0.6%；LME 三个月铜价上涨 1.6%；美油、布油分别上涨 6.2%、4%。 （二）景气向下 1）汽车，有所放缓，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 3.8 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 3.9 万台；2024 年 9-12 月（2024.8.23~2024.12.31）日均 4.7 万台。 2）家电，有所提速，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 82.9 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 63 万台；受数据限制，观察 2024 年 10- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6]. Core Insights - In late May, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises reached a four-month low, indicating a potential downturn in production [2][45]. - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in May 2025 was 49.09, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.20%, suggesting slight improvement in liquidity conditions [12][22]. - The report highlights a correlation between M1 and M2 growth rates and the Shanghai Composite Index, with the M1-M2 growth rate difference showing a positive trend [12][22]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI SME financing environment index for May 2025 is 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [12]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.5 percentage points in April 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [12][22]. - London gold prices increased by 0.64% compared to the previous week [12]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output for key enterprises in late May was 2.091 million tons, marking a 4.91% decrease from April [2][45]. - The national capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points [45]. - The cement price index decreased by 1.44% this week, while the average price of rebar increased by 0.32% [2][64]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [2]. - The prices of major commodities showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel down 0.81% and copper up 0.87% [2]. Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 was 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [4]. - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1154.98 points, up 3.34% from the previous week [4]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.88%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +3.24% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels following the recent revisions to the steel industry standards [5].

Economic Indicators - As of June 8, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.19%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.17 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] Financing and Social Financing - In May 2025, new loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 800 billion RMB, slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.25 to 0.15 trillion RMB[13] - Government bond financing in May reached 1.49 trillion RMB, an increase of 0.17 trillion RMB compared to the same period last year[13] - The total social financing scale is expected to increase by 2.2 to 2.5 trillion RMB in May, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for April 2025 due to a low base effect from last year[13] Industrial Production and Investment - The operating rate for major industries has shown a seasonal decline, but remains better than the same period last year, reflecting reduced tariff impacts[7] - Infrastructure investment continues to recover, with the operating rate for asphalt plants at 31.30%, up 3.60 percentage points from last year[26] - The sales area of commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 22.5% year-on-year in the first week of June[7] Export and Trade - The Shanghai container freight index increased by 167.64 points to 2240.35 points, indicating improved shipping demand[32] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 177.50 points to 1520.00 points, reflecting a recovery in maritime trade[32] - South Korea's export growth rate fell to -1.30%, a decline of 5.00 percentage points from April[32] Risks and Policy Outlook - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[48] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market is still under observation[48]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - Keep an eye on the impact of the new US tariff policy on upstream prices and the advancement of pension - service - related programs [1] - Observe the trends of prices,开工率, sales volume, and credit spreads across different industries [2][3][4][5] 3) Summary by Directory A. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The US has raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50, and China will build 10 national data element comprehensive experimental zones [1] - **Service Industry**: The ISO has released an international standard on the inclusive digital economy for an aging society led by China [1] B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The price of soda ash in the chemical industry has dropped significantly, and the price of glass in the black industry has continued to decline [2] - **Mid - stream**: The PX operating rate in the chemical industry and the asphalt operating rate in the infrastructure industry have both increased [3] - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in the real - estate industry have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights in the service industry has cyclically decreased [4] - **Market Pricing**: The credit spreads across all industries are fluctuating [5] C. Data Graphs - There are 24 graphs showing various indicators such as coal consumption, inventory, operating rates of different industries, traffic congestion indices, movie box - office, and flight execution [6] D. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - Credit spreads of different industries have different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing compared to previous periods [45] E. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Prices of various products in key industries have different changes, including increases and decreases in prices of agricultural products, metals, energy, and chemical products [46]

Playing the long game Key features of the outlook We forecast GDP growth of 4.6% and 4.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, assuming no change in the US tariff levels (up an additional 30% compared to the start of 2025) and modest stimulus. Over the coming months, export frontloading and the announced policy measures should remain supportive, but some weakening is bound to happen further ahead, when the exemption period on the reciprocal tariffs comes to an end, warranting more policy support. Given the tari ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the progress of green infrastructure pilot projects, such as the first - batch pilot work of new power system construction organized by the National Energy Administration [1] - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the promotion of pension service - related programs, like the release of an international standard on the digital economy from an aging perspective led by China [1] - The credit spreads of the entire industry fluctuate slightly [3] Summary by Directory 1. Mid - level Event Overview Production Industry - The National Energy Administration is carrying out the first - batch pilot work on new power system construction, focusing on national hub nodes and non - hub nodes with good energy resources. It aims to increase the proportion of green electricity in data centers through the "green power aggregated supply" model [1] Service Industry - The International Organization for Standardization has released an international standard on the digital economy from an aging perspective led by China, which provides specific suggestions for elderly people's high - frequency digital economic scenarios [1] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Coal inventories are at a three - year high recently [2] Mid - stream - The PX开工率 is continuously rising, and the urea开工率 is stable and at a three - year high; the asphalt开工率 is rising; the开工 rate of pig product processing is increasing [2] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have a seasonal rebound but are still at a near - three - year low; the number of domestic flights has decreased [2] 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the entire industry fluctuate slightly [3] 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 69.83 | 80.55 | 75.09 | 78.86 | 63.16 | 1.10 | | Mining | 36.41 | 46.76 | 44.37 | 49.14 | 42.27 | 11.50 | | Chemical Industry | 67.53 | 68.59 | 62.96 | 64.22 | 57.43 | 0.00 | | Steel | 43.64 | 57.03 | 52.34 | 57.01 | 49.92 | 11.40 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 47.06 | 56.23 | 53.30 | 60.33 | 53.49 | 14.60 | | Electronics | 55.98 | 78.46 | 65.50 | 79.10 | 67.58 | 24.80 | | Automobile | 64.33 | 76.43 | 45.92 | 52.66 | 44.05 | 0.00 | | Household Appliances | 44.70 | 53.93 | 44.90 | 53.92 | 47.29 | 12.30 | | Food and Beverage | 42.71 | 43.83 | 43.40 | 46.81 | 39.58 | 4.10 | | Textile and Apparel | 50.19 | 57.43 | 50.48 | 56.71 | 50.28 | 4.90 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 56.31 | 198.86 | 167.29 | 166.01 | 156.61 | 8.30 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 57.67 | 65.83 | 67.40 | 74.32 | 66.68 | 17.60 | | Public Utilities | 26.96 | 32.22 | 30.73 | 34.60 | 29.06 | 13.70 | | Transportation | 33.79 | 36.99 | 34.76 | 39.07 | 33.24 | 7.30 | | Real Estate | 403.85 | 187.61 | 146.74 | 126.56 | 113.61 | 6.50 | | Commercial Trade | 48.40 | 52.24 | 48.09 | 52.23 | 45.37 | 5.30 | | Leisure Services | 75.14 | 106.06 | 107.84 | 128.21 | 120.84 | 98.00 | | Banking | 24.57 | 26.56 | 19.97 | 19.61 | 17.94 | 4.10 | | Non - banking Finance | 30.74 | 34.45 | 32.24 | 36.24 | 30.34 | 7.10 | | Comprehensive | 68.97 | 51.39 | 46.45 | 52.02 | 46.01 | 2.50 | | Building Materials | 34.78 | 46.19 | 43.78 | 48.38 | 40.81 | 9.60 | | Building Decoration | 46.17 | 56.39 | 52.42 | 58.00 | 52.43 | 12.20 | | Electrical Equipment | 54.28 | 84.01 | 78.85 | 84.52 | 78.64 | 39.40 | | Mechanical Equipment | 37.35 | 43.94 | 41.86 | 49.79 | 44.51 | 25.20 | | Computer | 69.00 | 74.00 | 62.09 | 64.12 | 53.12 | 0.00 | | Media | 228.94 | 44.27 | 43.19 | 47.55 | 40.77 | 0.10 | | Communication | 243.53 | 36.87 | 28.67 | 29.93 | 23.64 | 0.00 | [45] 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Update Time | Price | Year - on - Year | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | 5/15 | 2304.3 | 0.81% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | 5/15 | 0.8 | 4.65% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | 5/15 | 8588.0 | 0.59% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | 5/15 | 14512.3 | 2.56% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | 5/15 | 20.9 | - 0.10% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | 5/15 | 78938.3 | | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | 5/15 | 22880.0 | 0.61% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | 5/15 | 20366.7 | 3.75% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | 5/15 | 126525.0 | 1.42% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | 5/15 | 16906.3 | 1.12% | | | Steel | Spot price of rebar | Daily | 5/15 | 3189.9 | 0.86% | | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | 5/15 | 793.3 | 2.20% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | 5/12 | 3377.5 | 0.30% | | | Building Materials | Spot price of glass | Daily | 5/15 | 14.8 | - 2.50% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | 5/15 | 14838.3 | 2.63% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | 5/15 | 840.4 | 1.06% | | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | 5/15 | 63.2 | 8.75% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | 5/15 | | 8.13% | | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | 5/12 | 4278.0 | - 0.37% | | | | Coal price | Daily | 5/15 | 777.0 | - 1.40% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of PTA | Daily | 5/15 | 4991.7 | 6.47% | | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | 5/15 | 7508.3 | 0.58% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | 5/15 | 1946.7 | 1.83% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | 5/15 | 1462.5 | 0.00% | | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | Daily | 5/15 | 143.5 | - 0.93% | | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | 5/15 | 116.5 | 0.52% | | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | 5/15 | 99.8 | - 0.53% | | [46]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

Summary of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the construction industry in China, focusing on infrastructure and housing construction sectors [2][3][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Infrastructure Growth**: China State Construction's infrastructure engineering growth accelerated, benefiting from energy and water environmental projects, with year-on-year growth exceeding 40% [2][3]. 2. **Low-Carbon Transition**: The growth reflects the national low-carbon transition policy and the increasing demand from major owners like the six major power generation groups [3]. 3. **Project Management**: The company applies refined management practices from housing construction to emerging infrastructure sectors, ensuring a steady flow of orders [2][3]. 4. **Cash Flow Improvement**: The company integrates accounts receivable into government ledgers to secure government funding support and employs strategies like low-interest swaps to help local governments free up resources for construction orders [2][6]. 5. **Housing Construction Orders Decline**: Housing construction orders decreased by 4.8% in the first four months of the year, influenced by weak real estate market demand and insufficient production willingness from private enterprises [7]. 6. **Project Selection Strategy**: The company employs a "two optimizations and two focuses" strategy to select projects, aiming to maintain stability in the housing construction market [7]. 7. **Industrial Plant Demand**: Demand for industrial plants, previously a major contributor to housing construction orders, has declined, impacting the overall construction industry [9]. 8. **Urban Renewal Initiatives**: The company is actively developing urban renewal and village renovation projects, with new contracts in this area amounting to approximately 100 billion annually [10]. 9. **Debt Management**: The company reported a significant impairment loss of 20 billion last year due to an increase in accounts receivable and aging debts, with an expected impairment provision of about 5 billion this year [4][15]. 10. **High Dividend Yield**: The company has increased its dividend payout ratio, currently yielding around 4.8%, which is attractive for public funds and may lead to increased allocation in the construction sector [16][17]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Data Center Demand**: The data center business, part of the industrial plant sector, shows growth potential, particularly highlighted by major projects like the East Data West Computing initiative [13]. - **Steel Structure Business**: The steel structure segment maintains stability through advanced technology and robotics, ensuring quality without aggressive capacity expansion [14]. - **Market Positioning**: The company is focusing on enhancing its market competitiveness through design, investment, and operational management improvements in urban renewal projects [10]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic responses to market challenges and opportunities within the construction industry.

半年度宏观展望：柳暗花明，股债双牛 20250602 摘要 中国 2025 年全年 GDP 预计增长 5%，受益于美国关税阶段性下调和积 极的财政政策，但下半年可能面临增速放缓，三、四季度 GDP 增速或分 别降至 4.8%和 4.7%。 下半年财政和货币政策预计将侧重于稳就业，针对低附加值企业订单流 失导致的就业问题，政策将更偏向供给端，需求侧刺激可能相对缺位， 物价表现预计偏弱。 中美经贸关系仍具不确定性，关税豁免期结束后，关税上浮概率较大， 但两国元首可能在 G20 峰会上会面，或提振市场对达成经贸协定的预期。 下半年看好股票和债券，股票方面，红利类资产因中美关系不确定性具 备防御优势，科技类资产受益于机构资产配置偏好调整；债券方面，预 计 10 年期国债利率可能继续下探至 1.5%。 制造业投资是固定资产投资中最强劲的指标，受益于重大工程投资、设 备更新和高技术相关投资，以及新质生产力的推动，全年增速预计为 9.0%。 Q&A 2025 年下半年宏观经济环境的总体判断是什么？ 2025 年下半年，宏观经济依然面临一定的下行压力。全年需求被前置是主要 原因之一，因此预计三四季度 GDP 可能会下降。从外 ...