Group 1 - The A-share market has recently experienced a "anti-involution" theme rally, with sectors such as steel, polysilicon, and glass seeing significant growth. The "anti-involution" theme is expected to become one of the main investment lines in the near future as it spreads across various industries [1] - Securities firms have shown considerable interest in the "anti-involution" theme, with dozens of firms publishing over a hundred reports and articles related to it since July. The most covered industries include building materials, steel, photovoltaics, and coal [1] - Analysts suggest that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is likely to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, improving the net asset return rates in related industries, which would be a significant benefit for the stock market [1] Group 2 - "Expectation management" is the primary method of the current "anti-involution" policy. Traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel have largely cleared their outdated production capacity, and the concentration of industries has significantly increased [2] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy may vary by industry. Some sectors, such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, still have growth potential, making direct capacity clearance less likely, while traditional industries with higher capacity utilization and low product prices may see more significant effects on profitability [2] - A report from Huachuang Securities identified potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" measures, with coal mining, coke, and ordinary steel being the most frequently mentioned. Other industries like passenger vehicles and wind power equipment were also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [2]

（原标题：和讯投顾冯珂：连续4天收出长上影线，短期板块快速轮动还会持续） 今天尾盘指数又跳水了，已经连续4天收出长上影线了，而且大盘又缩量2000多亿。这盘面我咋看不懂了？和讯投顾冯珂分析，今天银行虽然要继 续上涨，但是尾盘集合竞价再度跳水，说明了主力在不停的拉高出货，这就是我昨天跟你说的鱼尾行情。同时证券板块大跌，很多散户一看旗手 倒下了，而且热点也比较散乱，没有持续性，所以今天也不敢动手，所以成交量就下来了。而且今天出现了一个与众不同的现象，今天市场跌停 家数达到了18家，为7月份之最。盘户数据也显示游资呢净买入才12亿，也同时创下了7月份的一个新低。而且今天虽然连板有18家，但是大部分 都是新面孔板块，包括了地产、贸易、电力、医药、海运、中特沽等等这些板块，基本上今天都是下跌的。 越是下跌板块，主力越是抱团，这也太奇怪了，不过今天我大科技报表反而吃到牛腿了。其实今天涨停家数呢72家呢并不少外资，今天也通过呢 陆股通加仓了。之所以出现这种反逻辑现象，只有一个理由就是主力在调仓换股热点也全面铺开了。对于长久被套的，尤其是大科技的很多散户 朋友们，反而回血了，所以我上周说等风来风水轮流转，今天不就轮到你了吗？ ...

这是半佛仙人的第1835篇原创 1 蔚来最近整了一个非常离谱的大活儿。 为了庆祝他们高速公路换电站达成100 0座，开着乐道L6 0来了个公路挑战， 换人换电不换车 ，连续开了1000 0公里，穿越19个省，81 个市，耗时9 8小时。 但凡你开过长途，你都能明白这个数据背后的可怕，看到就觉得腰酸腿痛。 这个强度，这个力度，这个长度，这个路线的曲折度，折合下来平均超过了1 00公里每小时，这么说吧，就是正儿八经营运的出租车都 不敢这么跑，毕竟车这个东西如果出问题是不会受到人类的语言激励的。 饼顶多画给社畜，但车如果不行真给你扔到半路。 而且这个一次性10 00 0公里，就算是车受得了，车主的老腰也受不了。 人类还是有局限的。 蔚来能完成这个挑战，已经完全证明了自身产品质量的过硬。 你别的都可以不信，但你得信物理，得信一万千米。 但凡质量不够猛，都经受不住10 000公里+十几个省高速路实地的折腾，更何况还是98小时完成的，这都不是家用绰绰有余了，就是商 用都没这么往死里用的，三体人来打地球，都没这么激进过。 除了连续1 00 00公里行驶之外，更离奇的是，不充电，而是用【换电】来完成了，再考虑到算下来平均时速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests that the technology innovation sector remains a suitable allocation in the current environment, with a focus on artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key areas of interest for the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The technology innovation sector has shown structural opportunities since the beginning of the year, with the Tech Innovation 50 Index rising approximately 18% from its early-year high, particularly in AI, robotics, and semiconductors [2]. - The AI sector has demonstrated a diffusion effect, positively impacting related fields such as innovative pharmaceuticals and defense industries [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed the A-share market, with notable performance in technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - Continuous policy support for technology innovation includes financing support and capital market reforms, with a focus on new production capabilities and financial instruments for tech companies [3]. - The establishment of the National Entrepreneurship Guidance Fund aims to invest in cutting-edge fields like AI and quantum technology, enhancing financing for startups [3]. - The restructuring of the global monetary system and trade dynamics is expected to lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, with potential benefits for the stock market [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The AI sector is transitioning from technological breakthroughs to practical applications, with significant advancements in AI models and increased demand from both consumer and business sectors [8]. - High-end manufacturing is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, with capital expenditures in sectors like batteries and consumer electronics showing signs of expansion [9]. - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector is benefiting from policy optimization and internationalization, with a notable increase in license-out transactions and recognition at global conferences [10][11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The technology narrative and geopolitical changes are expected to attract overseas capital back to the Chinese stock market, with a noticeable increase in attention towards tech companies since the beginning of the year [12]. - Valuations of tech companies have seen some recovery, but there is still differentiation across sectors, with certain sectors like computing and defense showing higher valuations compared to others [12].

电力设备新能源 2H25 展望 20250613 摘要 锂电产业链排产超预期，国内重卡商用车上半年同比增长约 190%，乘 用车终端需求韧性增强，欧洲市场恢复超预期增长超 20%，新能源车出 口强劲，对锂电总需求形成支撑。 储能行业 2025 年下半年发展积极，国内独立储能需求快速增长，海外 市场美国发货恢复，非美地区需求高涨，头部电池厂储能排产饱和，美 国大而美法案落地支撑储能需求。 美国大而美法案延续储能补贴至 2033 年，限制外国敏感实体材料援助 比例，取消技术授权上限，有望推动主链估值修复，加速锂电板块北塔 修复。 电池环节公司二季度业绩环比向上，头部厂商经营性业绩良好，已获美 国储能和动力订单及技术授权，东南亚产能逐步释放，美国市场逻辑增 强。 零部件环节中报业绩预期强劲，中熔电气二季度利润超预期，受行业景 气度及高盈利产品放量影响，激励熔断器有望应用于新能源车领域，并 拓展海外市场。 Q&A 2025 年下半年锂电板块的市场预期和实际情况如何？ 当前锂电板块的市场预期与实际情况存在显著反差。尽管受国家补贴退坡及 136 号文取消新能源强制配储影响，市场对三季度国内需求预期较弱，认为七 八月份锂电 ...

Price Trends - June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after four months of negative figures[7] - June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to expand compared to the previous month[7] - Core CPI rose to 0.7% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 14 months, supported by the "trade-in" policy[14] Consumer Behavior - The "trade-in" subsidy policy has been a significant factor in supporting durable goods prices, leading to a slight recovery in core CPI[7] - Food prices saw a marginal improvement, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 0.7% month-on-month, better than seasonal trends[12] - Service-related prices remained weak, indicating limited progress in the recovery of household balance sheets[7] Economic Risks - The ongoing uncertainty in the real estate market poses risks to economic stability[3] - External pressures, including tariff issues and uncertain foreign demand, continue to affect the economy[30] - The potential overspending of future consumption demand due to the "trade-in" policy could lead to economic challenges[30]

2025 年 07 月 13 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20250705-20250711） - 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 冯彧 A0230123080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 (8621)23297818× fengyu@swsresearch.com 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 行 业 比 较 相关研究 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 7 月 11 日） ✓ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证 A 股整体 PE 为 19.7 倍，处于历史 78%分位； ✓ 上证 50 指数 PE 为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with many companies reporting substantial increases in their H1 2025 performance and a surge in IPO applications across various stock markets [2][3][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Several semiconductor companies have reported impressive H1 2025 earnings forecasts, including: - Rockchip expects revenue of approximately 204.5 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 64%, and a net profit of 52 million to 54 million yuan, representing a growth of 185% to 195% [3]. - Chipone anticipates H1 revenue of around 63 million yuan, up about 38%, with a net profit of approximately 9 million yuan, reflecting a 104% increase [3]. - Allwinner Technology forecasts a net profit of 156 million to 171 million yuan, a growth of 31.02% to 43.62% [4]. - Dinglong Co. expects revenue of about 1.727 billion yuan, a 14% increase, with a net profit of 290 million to 320 million yuan, marking a growth of 33.12% to 46.9% [4]. - Jingfang Technology anticipates a net profit of 150 million to 175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.28% to 58.99% [4]. - Haoshanghao expects a net profit of 28 million to 35 million yuan, a growth of 42.49% to 78.11% [4]. - Hanjin Technology forecasts a net profit of 13 million to 18 million yuan, a decline of 45.42% to 60.58% [4]. - Demingli expects revenue of 3.8 billion to 4.2 billion yuan, a growth of 74.63% to 93.01%, but anticipates a net loss of 80 million to 120 million yuan [5]. Group 2: IPO Activity - The capital market is witnessing a surge in IPO applications from semiconductor companies, with 21 firms submitting applications to A-shares in H1 2025, aiming to raise a total of 46.5 billion yuan [6][9]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board is the most favored listing platform, accounting for over 50% of the applications, reflecting its alignment with the semiconductor industry's focus on "hard technology" [6]. - Notable companies among the applicants include: - Moer Thread, seeking to raise 8 billion yuan, focusing on GPU and related products [8]. - Shanghai Super Silicon, aiming for 4.965 billion yuan, specializing in semiconductor wafers [8]. - Zhaoxin Integrated Circuit, targeting 4.169 billion yuan, focusing on high-end general-purpose processors [8]. - The ChiNext Board attracted four companies, planning to raise approximately 5.84 billion yuan, while the Beijing Stock Exchange received five applications from smaller semiconductor firms [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the renewable energy sector, particularly highlighting Sunshine Power and Daikin Heavy Industries as top recommendations [5][6][11]. Core Insights - The renewable energy sector, particularly photovoltaics, is identified as a benchmark industry in the current "anti-involution" movement, with significant price interventions showing initial effectiveness [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring terminal price transmission capabilities and the formation of consistent expectations regarding price increases across the supply chain [5][6]. - The electric grid sector is experiencing accelerated construction, with significant contract wins reported, indicating robust growth potential [2][11]. - The solid-state battery trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Shanghai Xiba and Ganfeng Lithium making notable advancements in battery technology [7][9][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The report highlights the photovoltaic industry as a key focus area within the new energy sector, with price interventions beginning to show results [5]. - It recommends Sunshine Power as a leading beneficiary of improved market conditions and optimistic Q2 performance outlooks [5][6]. Wind Power - Daikin Heavy Industries is noted for exceeding Q2 performance expectations, with a strong long-term profit outlook [6]. - The report discusses favorable policy developments in Hainan province for offshore wind projects, indicating potential order opportunities [6]. Electric Grid - The report notes that Siyuan Electric's Q2 revenue reached 5.3 billion yuan, a 50% year-on-year increase, with net profit up 62% [2][11]. - The State Grid's recent contract wins totaling 21.19 billion yuan reflect a 38% year-on-year increase, marking a new high for single-batch contract amounts [2][11]. Lithium Battery - The report emphasizes the solid-state battery trend and the importance of lithium metal anodes as a long-term direction for battery technology [7]. - Companies like Shanghai Xiba are actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance their capabilities in lithium-related materials [12]. New Energy Vehicles - The report indicates a shift in the automotive market towards quality competition, with companies focusing on product quality rather than price competition [3]. - The launch of new models, such as the NIO L90, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and brand perception [18]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The report notes a resurgence in interest in hydrogen energy, with government support and low valuations making it a potential investment hotspot [3]. Industry Events - Key industry events include the release of the "Notice on Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Weight" by the National Development and Reform Commission, which sets ambitious targets for renewable energy consumption [4][5]. - The report also highlights significant IPO plans from companies like Tianqi Materials and Xingyuan Materials, indicating a trend towards capital market engagement [10][18].

【 导读 】 中证转债指数创十年新高，相关产品业绩表现亮眼 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 近日，中证转债指数刷新近十年新高。受益于此，可转债基金表现亮眼，十多只主题基金年 内净值增长率超10%，业绩最高达到13.42%。 业内人士表示，今年板块结构分化显著、中小盘持续活跃的市场环境有利于主动管理的基金 获取超额收益。能够较好地挖掘产业周期机会，充分利用可转债特性把握中小盘主题行情的 产品，有望获得超额回报。 转债指数创十年新高 相关产品业绩表现亮眼 Wind数据显示，7月11日，中证转债指数盘中一度涨至452.27点，创2015年6月19日以来新 高，年内涨幅达8.75%。 转债市场上涨带动可转债基金表现亮眼，十多只可转债主题基金年内净值增长率超10%。其 中，中欧可转债债券A今年以来业绩达13.42%，暂列第一；博时转债增强A、南方昌元可转 债A、华宝可转债A、宝盈融源可转债A等基金年内净值增长率均超12%。 "去年9月以来，权益市场环境较过去三年出现积极变化，驱动可转债市场呈现出较强的赚钱 效应，低利率环境下可转债的关注度明显上升。结构上，二季度以来银行板块持续走强，带 动大盘权重转债上涨。同时，年初以来，中小 ...