中金公司 风格偏向小盘成长 20250702 摘要 宏观预期差维度显示，PPI 不及预期和 CPI 超预期对股票市场构成负面 影响，债券市场影响中性，而工业增加值、汇率及 PMI 超预期利好商品 市场，表明不同资产类别受宏观数据影响差异显著。 左侧择时指标显示，股市多个指标触发看多信号，预示震荡上行；债券 市场过热风险显现；商品市场情绪、库存和开工率健康，走势乐观，为 资产配置提供参考。 股市阻力支撑模型显示市场底部存在支撑，预示未来可能上行，为投资 者提供信心。 行业轮动策略在当前较快轮动速度下，推荐综合、轻工制造、房地产、 建材、消费者服务和纺织服装等行业，这些行业可能在短期内表现突出。 风格层面，小盘成长风格在 7 月份预计更占优，成长风格优势明显，大 小盘优势略有下降，这与宏观环境（期限利差扩大、PPI 下降）和市场 状态（风格动量偏向成长）有关。 主动量化策略中，小盘类型策略表现最佳，显著优于中证 2000 和国证 2000 等小盘指数，景气成长型策略也表现良好，为投资者提供了超额 收益。 7 月份，景气成长型和小盘掘金类策略仍存在机会，尽管景气成长型策 略估值性价比有所降低，但资金拥挤度和风格组合 ...

Group 1: Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry - The added value of China's electronic information manufacturing industry increased by 11.1% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 4.8 percentage points and high-tech manufacturing growth by 1.6 percentage points [1] - The industry achieved an operating revenue of 6.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, and a total profit of 216.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [3] Group 2: Air Cargo Logistics - In the first half of 2025, China opened 117 new international air cargo routes, with a weekly increase of over 233 round-trip flights [6] - The route structure primarily focuses on Asia and Europe, with 54 routes to Asia, 45 to Europe, and 12 to North America [8] Group 3: Light Industry - The added value of China's light industry increased by 7.0% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with operating revenue reaching 9.27 trillion yuan [9] - Retail sales of 11 categories of light industrial goods exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [9] - Exports of light industrial goods reached 373.21 billion USD, accounting for one-quarter of the national total exports, indicating resilient foreign trade [11] Group 4: New Quality Productivity - In 2024, the new quality productivity sectors, including digital economy, high-tech industry, and robotics, received a corporate income tax reduction of 1.97 trillion yuan, with total operating revenue growing by 7.1% and total profit by 5.2% [13] Group 5: Film Industry - The box office for Chinese films in the first half of 2025 reached 29.231 billion yuan, a 22.91% increase compared to the same period in 2024, driven by successful releases like "Nezha" [21]

周二（7 月 1 日）大盘 V 型反转，小幅上涨。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3457.75 点，上涨 0.39%；深成指 收于 10476.29 点，上涨 0.11%；科创 50 下跌 0.86%； 创业板指下跌 0.24%，万得全 A 成交额共 14965 亿元， 较前一日略有下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 18 个行业上涨，其 中医药、有色金属及银行涨幅居前，而综合金融、计 算机及商贸零售则跌幅较大。概念方面，中船系、创 新药及抗生素等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美股全线收涨 国内市场综述 V 型反转 小幅上涨 周二（7月1日），道指涨 0.91%，标普500指数跌0.11%， 纳指跌 0.82%。万得美国科技七巨头指数跌 1.18%。中 概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨 0.2%，万得 中概科技龙头指数涨 0.27%。 新闻精要 1. 习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议 2. 两部门印发《支持创新药高质量发展的若干措施》 3. 7 月 1 日起将实施一批国家标准 4. SEMI 预计 2030 年全球半导体产业面临百万人才缺 口 5. 美国参议院通过"大而美"税收与支出法案 6. 全 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The US Treasury market has a history of over 200 years, with significant events shaping its development, including the Civil War and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The US bond market accounts for over 40% of the global market [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion, nearly doubling since 2017. The issuance of debt follows principles aimed at minimizing expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance [2][3] - The trading of US Treasuries occurs mainly in Tokyo, London, and New York, with an average daily trading volume increasing by 1.8 times over the past decade. The investor structure is diverse, with overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds accounting for about 60% of the market [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums. Recent data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below last year's level, with a trend of first declining and then rising [3] Industry Research - The easing of US-China tariff issues is expected to support domestic exports, with a focus on companies with global layouts that will have competitive advantages [7][8] - H&M Group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in the retail sector [7] - Xiaomi launched its first AI glasses, which are lighter and more suitable for Asian users compared to competitors. The Chinese smart glasses market is projected to reach 2.9 million units by 2025, with Xiaomi expected to capture 10% of the market share [8] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.68 percentage points and 1.97 percentage points, respectively, during the week of June 23 to June 27 [7][8]

Group 1 - Xi Jinping emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy during the sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee [2] - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, requiring coordinated efforts to implement the Party Central Committee's deployment [2] - The development of the marine economy must follow a path with Chinese characteristics, contributing to China's modernization [2] Group 2 - The latest data shows that the added value of China's above-scale light industry increased by 7.0% year-on-year in the first five months of this year, continuing a positive recovery trend [11] - The total operating income of the light industry reached 9.27 trillion yuan during the same period, indicating steady production growth [11] Group 3 - The new revised Mineral Resources Law officially came into effect, emphasizing special protection for mineral resources critical to national economic security and strategic emerging industries [19] - The law also highlights the importance of balancing resource development and environmental protection, and stresses the market-oriented allocation of resources [19]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250701 预期高股息组合跟踪-20250630 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 红利择时框架 2025 年 7 月观点：不再看多红利。 ◼ 2025 年 7 月组合最新持仓明细： | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 申万一级行业 | 建仓日期 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601668.SH | 中国建筑 | 建筑装饰 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 2 | 603833.SH | 欧派家居 | 轻工制造 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 3 | 601838.SH | 成都银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 4 | 000651.SZ | 格力电器 | 家用电器 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 5 | 601328.SH | 交通银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 6 | 000157.SZ | 中联重科 | ...

截至2025年一季报，共有8家机构持仓美新科技，其中其他7家、券商1家，合计持股数3529.99万股，持 股市值6.52亿元。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)13美新科技38.8437.692.3522.06亿行业平均 40.9039.093.9573.29亿行业中值31.9833.232.7840.41亿1嘉益股份12.3913.144.6896.31亿2哈尔斯 13.2313.682.2839.21亿3浙江永强13.7717.181.7879.39亿4乐歌股份15.8914.561.3348.92亿5慕思股份 16.2115.722.59120.64亿6西大门18.8018.751.7622.93亿7众鑫股份19.4319.973.1264.69亿8晨光股份 20.0119.132.90266.99亿9公牛集团20.2120.435.17872.64亿10致欧科技21.3522.012.1973.44亿11源飞宠物 24.5922.912.7837.64亿12共创草坪24.7126.394.63134.91亿 6月30日，美新科技今日收盘18.56元，上涨1.48%，滚动市盈率PE ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.59%, with 33 stocks reaching historical closing highs [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 4,056 stocks increased in price, accounting for 75.04%, while 1,127 stocks decreased, making up 20.85% [1] - A total of 94 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 7 stocks hit the limit down [1] Historical Highs - Excluding newly listed stocks from the past year, 33 stocks closed at historical highs, with 14 from the main board, 14 from the ChiNext board, and 3 from the Sci-Tech Innovation board [1] - The sectors with the most stocks reaching historical highs included electronics, power equipment, and national defense, with 8, 4, and 4 stocks respectively [1] Stock Price Performance - Stocks that reached historical highs saw an average price increase of 7.34%, with notable limit-up stocks including Hopson Holdings, Aohong Electronics, and Great Wall Military Industry [1] - The average closing price of the stocks that hit historical highs was 47.32 yuan, with 3 stocks priced over 100 yuan and 7 stocks priced between 50 and 100 yuan [1] - The highest closing price was recorded by Shenghong Technology at 134.38 yuan, which increased by 1.42% [1] Capital Flow - The total net inflow of main funds into stocks reaching historical highs was 1.078 billion yuan, with 20 stocks experiencing net inflows [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Sifang Precision, Haoshanghao, and Great Wall Military Industry, with net inflows of 381 million yuan, 348 million yuan, and 247 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, 11 stocks experienced net outflows, with Dongshan Precision, Jinlongyu, and Yema Battery seeing the largest outflows of 170 million yuan, 166 million yuan, and 7.129 million yuan respectively [2] Market Capitalization - The average total market capitalization of stocks reaching historical highs was 34.915 billion yuan, with an average circulating market capitalization of 31.703 billion yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest total market capitalization included Pudong Development Bank, New Yisheng, and Shenghong Technology, with market caps of 407.408 billion yuan, 126.046 billion yuan, and 115.928 billion yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the lowest total market capitalization included Southeast Electronics and Yuanhang Precision, with market caps of 2.474 billion yuan and 3.061 billion yuan respectively [2] Innovation High Frequency - The ability to reach new highs is an indicator of stock strength, with Shenghong Technology achieving 10 new highs in the past month, followed by Pudong Development Bank, Taotao Automotive, and Jiangxin Home with 9, 9, and 8 new highs respectively [2]

消费策略&组合配置：新消费创造成长主线，结构性牛市曙 光已现 20260629 摘要 中国经济增长引擎缺失，但出口复苏有望改善国内经济活动。企业偿债 现金流增速下降，资产负债表修复过半，出口正向冲击或带动高周转消 费修复，个人所得税反弹预示居民收入缓慢修复。 7 月投资策略应规避流动性驱动资产，关注基本面改善的服务消费和高 周转商品消费。新消费核心驱动力在于创造新场景和业态，关注高周转、 低杠杆的服务性消费及耐用消费品出口。 内需方面，消费板块投资偏向"红利加"品种，关注情绪价值消费（潮 玩、宠物）、功能价值消费（AI+）、消费出海和渠道变革（海澜之家 等）。 商贸零售面临供给过剩和需求不足挑战，关注新需求带来的边际机会， 包括传统渠道变革和即时零售崛起。新需求集中于服务性消费，跨境出 海企业需关注供应链、品牌溢价和渠道溢价能力。 2025 年 618 电商大促符合预期，抖音增速超预期，呈现全域协同趋势， 国补品类是增长动力，即时零售表现突出。线下零售渠道调整加速，永 辉超市调改店规模化，胖东来模式门店数量预计快速增长。 Q&A 当前宏观经济背景下，消费板块面临哪些挑战与机遇，尤其是在流动性与基本 面层面？ ...

新消费主线崛起：（1）坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，关注情绪消费、功能价值、渠道变革、品牌出海四大长 线主题。（2）深挖老树新芽，关注具备新消费思维的传统赛道优质公司。（3）传统消费捕捉超跌反弹机遇，尤其是 竞争格局持续改善的红利+标的。 25H2 节奏：Q3 阶段性盘整把握结构性机会，Q4 龙头企业有望再创新高。（1）Q3 新消费龙头筹码结构有变化，处于 经济筑底与政策调整期，消费板块短期调整，把握景气兑现度较高的新消费龙头，积极寻找有增长潜力的二线标的。 （2）Q4 外部不确定性降低结合政策发力，新消费龙头有望估值切换，龙头+预期能持续兑现的新锐公司有望持续表现。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 轻工制造：①新型烟草（稳健向上）：整体来看，海外雾化电子烟合规市场扩容趋势明确，HNB 行业成长态 势清晰，英美烟草份额有望提升，继续重点布局切入其产业链的思摩尔国际。②家居（底部企稳）：内销方 面，终端销售情况整体仍相对偏弱；外销方面，7 月降息概率为 18.6%。建议重点关注底部反转型或具备自身α 企业。③造纸（底部企稳）：纸浆库存累计趋势不减，纸价继续保持企稳态势。④潮玩（高景气维持）：行业仍 处扩容趋势， ...