投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "three-phase overlap" characterized by a mid-bull market consolidation period, a critical phase for verifying economic conditions, and a performance policy gap, leading to increased market volatility and year-end profit-taking by investors [1] Market Environment - Recent overseas disturbances have impacted the market, with fluctuating expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December affecting global liquidity [1] - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations, but its stock experienced significant volatility due to investor concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, which has also affected sentiment in the A-share market [1] Long-term and Short-term Strategies - Long-term factors supporting a slow bull market remain unchanged; however, short-term strategies should focus on opportunistic positioning [1] - Investors are advised to wait for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December before making significant moves [1] - If market adjustments are sufficient, there may be opportunities to increase positions, with attention to the support levels of the 60-day and half-year moving averages and market volume conditions [1] Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include banking, oil and petrochemicals, steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, lithium batteries, and new materials [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market conditions, offering a multi - faceted view of the current economic and financial landscape [1][2][14][31]. Summary by Directory Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew at a 4.8% year - on - year rate, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% last year [1]. - In October 2025, the month - on - month increase in social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant drop from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412 billion yuan in the same period last year. New RMB loans from financial institutions were 220 billion yuan, down from 1290 billion yuan in the previous month and 500 billion yuan last year [1]. - CPI in October 2025 increased by 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month but down from 0.3% last year; PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous month and - 2.9% last year [1]. - In October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was - 1.7%, down from - 0.5% in the previous period and 3.4% last year; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.28%, down from 4.5% in the previous period but up from 3.5% last year [1]. - In October 2025, exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, a significant drop from 8.3% in the previous month and 12.64% last year; imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year, a decline from 7.4% in the previous month but an improvement from - 2.38% last year [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - China has notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports due to Japan's failure to provide promised technical materials and the Japanese Prime Minister's wrong remarks on the Taiwan issue [2]. - Since 2024, sulfur prices have been rising, reaching a peak in November 2025. On November 14, 2025, the CIF price of 99.5% sulfur in East China was 3860 yuan/ton, up 43% month - on - month and 166% year - on - year [2]. - On November 19, 2025, 42 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis. Among them, Shanghai nickel, Zhengzhou cotton, and cast aluminum alloy had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, Shanghai tin, and apples had the smallest [3]. - Russia will launch grain trading on the exchange on December 20, 2025. The Fed's decision - makers were divided on the interest rate cut in October 2025, with some advocating maintaining the rate and others suggesting a cut in December if the economy performs as expected [3]. Metals - In October 2025, the value - added of the non - ferrous metal industry above designated size increased by 4.0% year - on - year. From January to October, it increased by 7.4% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the first three quarters but 1.3 percentage points higher than the overall industrial value - added [5]. - On November 18, 2025, copper, zinc, and tin inventories on the London Metal Exchange reached multi - month highs, with significant increases; nickel, aluminum, and lead inventories decreased [6]. - The Chilean Copper Commission raised its copper price expectations for 2025 to $4.45 per pound and for 2026 to $4.55 per pound, the highest in its history [6]. - As of the week ending September 30, 2025, COMEX gold and silver speculators reduced their net long positions [7]. - The platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 22 tons in 2025, with total supply down 2% year - on - year to 222 tons and total demand at 243 tons, a decrease of 13 tons [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - US President Trump proposed to simplify the approval process for new energy and mining projects [8]. - In October 2025, Germany's crude steel production decreased by 3% year - on - year to 3.126 million metric tons [9]. - In October 2025, Brazil's steel sales decreased by 6.5% year - on - year to 1.814 million tons [9]. Energy and Chemicals - China's first high - pressure natural gas long - distance pipeline residual pressure power generation project in Haimen Station was put into operation [10]. - US energy data shows changes in various oil inventories and demand in the week, including an increase in distillate and gasoline inventories, and changes in import and export volumes [10]. - As of the week ending September 30, 2025, natural gas speculators in four major markets increased their net long positions [11]. - In September 2025, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 53,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 6.46 million barrels per day, and its crude oil inventory increased by 6.729 million barrels [11]. - Russia's 2025 oil production forecast remains at 510 million tons, and it will adhere to the OPEC+ agreement [11]. Agricultural Products - China's National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration conducted research on grain purchase, sales, and storage management, emphasizing the importance of ensuring national food security [13]. - In 2025, Ukraine's wheat harvest was 23 million tons, up from 22.6 million tons in 2024 [13]. - Brazil's soybean exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 4.26 million tons [13]. - Chile launched the 2025 - 2026 cherry sea - freight export season, shipping cherries to China [13]. Financial News Open Market - On November 19, 2025, the central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 115 billion yuan [14]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank will conduct a total of 200 billion yuan of central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits on November 24, 2025 [14]. Key News - The market expects the November 2025 LPR to remain unchanged [16]. - The Fed's decision - makers were divided on the interest rate cut in October 2025, and most agreed to stop the QT action [16]. - China has suspended the import of Japanese aquatic products [16]. - The Netherlands suspended the administrative order against Nexperia, but the key issue remains unresolved [17]. - Chinese Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized the digital and intelligent transformation of the manufacturing industry [17]. - The second - hand housing market in key cities is expected to see a marginal improvement in November 2025 but still faces pressure compared to last year [17]. - China successfully issued 4 billion euros of sovereign bonds in Luxembourg [18]. - Hong Kong will optimize the "Swap Connect" and explore the south - bound "Swap Connect" [18]. - Hong Kong and Shenzhen jointly released an action plan to build a global fintech center [18]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the rules for index funds [19]. - Many local governments have issued special bonds to invest in government investment funds this year [19]. - Trump criticized the Fed and Powell [19]. - Japan is experiencing a severe sell - off in government bonds [20]. - South Korea's external financial assets reached a record high in Q3 2025 [20]. - There are major bond - related events such as mergers, debt defaults, and changes in control [21]. - Moody's issued and adjusted credit ratings for some companies [21]. Bond Market - The Chinese bond market weakened, with most interest - rate bond yields rising and treasury bond futures falling. The money market tightened slightly [22]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, most Vanke bonds declined, while some other bonds rose or fell [23]. - The convertible bond index rose, and some convertible bonds had significant gains or losses [23]. - On November 19, 2025, most money market interest rates declined [24]. - The winning bid yields of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were announced [25]. - European and US bond yields mostly rose [25][26]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose slightly on November 19, 2025, while the central parity rate was adjusted down [27]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [27]. Research Report - CITIC Securities believes that the long - term annualized return of convertible bond - related indices has outperformed the underlying stock indices, and future returns may focus more on the underlying stock performance and the downward - revision clause [28]. - CITIC Securities also believes that the credit market has shown differentiation from the benchmark interest rate since Q3 2025, and there is still room for the credit bond term spread to decline [28]. Stock Market - A - shares fluctuated with reduced trading volume on November 19, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index was flat, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.25%. Bank stocks and some sectors such as military and aquatic products rose, while some sectors such as culture and media and real estate declined [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.38% on November 19, 2025. Some sectors such as non - ferrous metals and military rose, while tech and new - energy vehicle stocks declined. Southbound funds had a net inflow of HK$6.591 billion [31]. - The CSRC optimized the ETF registration and listing review process [31]. - Many foreign institutions are bullish on the long - term investment value of the Chinese stock market, and they have increased their research and investment in A - shares [32]. Today's Reminder - On November 20, 2025, 220 bonds will be listed, 178 bonds will be issued, 130 bonds will be paid for, and 175 bonds will pay principal and interest [30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and weak operation, and the market is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the downstream being differentiated in the off - season and the price under pressure for adjustment. The market presents a structurally differentiated trend [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center of gravity moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] Aluminum Alumina - The alumina market has a continuous supply - surplus pattern, the decline of spot prices has slowed but not stopped, and the industry profit is shrinking. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions are facing losses, resulting in a 17,000 - ton week - on - week decrease in production. The total inventory has reached 4.793 million tons, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [3] Aluminum Water and Downstream - The SMM weekly aluminum water ratio last week was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are in the transition from peak to off - season, and the aluminum price increase has put pressure on downstream processing fees, leading to production cuts in some processing enterprises [3] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% last week. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term, with grid orders supporting the slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [3] - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [3] Price Outlook - Macro factors have a mixed impact, and the market still expects a tightening of overseas supply. However, with the arrival of the off - season in China, the downstream is weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. The price is expected to have a short - term correction space [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and analysis of various commodities on November 18, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend and influencing factors [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have declined. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have fallen. The trend strength is neutral [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It has shown a slight decline. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have different trends. The trend strength is neutral [2][12]. - **Lead**: The significant increase in overseas inventories has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have decreased. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][16]. - **Tin**: It has fallen from a high level. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have declined. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: There is pressure above. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Alumina**: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has broken through the support level and is under pressure to fluctuate. The prices of domestic and international nickel futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but there is limited downside. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market sentiment is positive, and it is relatively strong in the short term. The prices of domestic carbonate lithium futures have increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is strong support at the bottom. The price of domestic industrial silicon futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the market information from the meeting. The price of domestic polysilicon futures has decreased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][36]. - **Iron Ore**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic iron ore futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][39]. - **Rebar**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic rebar futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic hot - rolled coil futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The main production areas continue to reduce production, and it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic silicon ferrosilicon futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic manganese silicide futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][49]. - **Coke**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coke futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coking coal futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. Others - **Log**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic log futures has remained stable. The trend strength is neutral [2][55]. - **Rubber**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic rubber futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is support during the shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Asphalt**: The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and it is in a narrow - range shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LLDPE**: The agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PP**: Do not chase short positions in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Pulp**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic pulp futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak operation. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Urea**: There is support during the short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LPG**: The downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Propylene**: The demand expectation has improved, and it is in a short - term strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Fuel Oil**: It maintains a weak shock and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has increased, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has continued to widen. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the opening guidance. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Bottle Chip**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is in a low - level shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Pure Benzene**: The overseas blending oil market has started, and it is mainly in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors have been fully digested, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean price is stable, and soybean oil is in a strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is strong, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean**: It may follow the rebound of the soybean market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Corn**: It is fluctuating. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the trading volume of new sugar. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Egg**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse - spread pattern. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's hawkish remarks have dampened hopes of a December rate cut, leading to tightened global market liquidity and significant market declines on Friday. The future rate - cut path still has room for debate, and market volatility remains high [2][15]. - In October, most domestic economic indicators showed a slowdown in growth, which has affected various markets such as A - shares and the bond market [3][25]. - Different commodity markets have their own supply - demand and price trends. For example, in the copper market, short - term macro factors may limit copper prices, while fundamentals may turn into a supporting factor [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials continue to make hawkish remarks, and the market is pricing in a pause in rate cuts in December. The future rate - cut path still has room for debate with the release of economic data next week. The US stock market maintains a high - level oscillation [15]. - Investment advice: Due to high market volatility, it is recommended to observe more and act less, waiting for the market to choose a direction [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US adjusts agricultural product tariffs and reduces tariffs on Swiss products. Gold prices fell significantly on Friday, remaining in a short - term consolidation range. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed officials' hawkish statements have led to tightened global market liquidity, significant market declines on Friday, and the US dollar index is oscillating. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Three factors are disturbing the A - share market: increased domestic economic pressure, tense Sino - Japanese relations, and overseas companies' demand for supply - chain localization. The probability of a high - level adjustment in the market is increasing. - Investment advice: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indexes [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Economic data in October was generally weaker than expected. The bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation as it has already anticipated weak data, and there is a lack of new positive drivers. - Investment advice: It is recommended to approach the market with an oscillation mindset [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal was stable on November 14. The overall coal price is oscillating around 850 yuan. Supply is tight, and demand is at a seasonal high, so the price has strong support but is unlikely to break through 900 yuan. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to be strongly supported but difficult to break through 900 yuan [34]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber plans to produce 67% high - grade iron ore by 2029. The iron ore market has weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain flat in the second half of November and decline slightly in December, maintaining an oscillating market [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to test B50 biodiesel in December. The US is urged to finalize biofuel policies. Palm oil prices may be weak due to policy uncertainties, while soybean oil prices are expected to remain firm. - Investment advice: For palm oil, do not prematurely trade potential positive expectations. For soybean oil, wait for the result of US biofuel policies [40]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In October, Brazilian sugar production data was higher than expected, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing. The domestic sugar market is expected to have a strong start to the new season, but the upside is limited. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, and the 1 - 5 contract long - spread can be held [45]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA November report is bearish for cotton, but the market has already priced it in. The domestic cotton market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA lowered the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season. US soybean crushing demand is strong, but the improvement in exports is uncertain. The domestic soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is in an oscillating state. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to China's actual purchases of US soybeans and South American production expectations [54]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early November, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased. Steel prices are oscillating without a clear trend. The market needs more steel mill production cuts. - Investment advice: Approach steel prices with an oscillating mindset [60]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. The starch market has positive profits, and the inventory has slightly decreased. - Investment advice: The 01 futures price difference is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [62]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The selling progress of corn in Northeast and North China is relatively fast, but the actual supply - demand situation is still tight. The price is expected to be affected by selling pressure in the future. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and there may be opportunities to short at high prices after the situation becomes clear [64]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Xinjiang is weakly stable. The futures price has declined, and the inventory has increased. - Investment advice: It is recommended to observe carefully until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to price negotiations and purchase progress in the production area [67]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Polish copper producer KGHM's Q3 net profit increased by 80%. Short - term macro factors may limit copper prices, while fundamentals may turn into a supporting factor. - Investment advice: It is recommended to buy on dips for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [71]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The first TOPCon + perovskite tandem solar cell was launched. The polysilicon spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to oscillate between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. - Investment advice: Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [74]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Organic silicon monomer manufacturers are jointly raising prices and considering production cuts. Industrial silicon prices are expected to have a clear lower limit, and it is recommended to buy on dips [77]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The supply side is in the early stage of repair, and the demand side is weak. There is a risk of low inventory in the long - term. - Investment advice: The industrial side can look for opportunities to short on rallies, and wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading [79]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peruvian zinc concentrate production decreased in September. The LME zinc market has a risk of a short - squeeze, and the domestic zinc market is expected to enter a high - level oscillating adjustment stage. - Investment advice: Hold short positions in the short - term, look for long - spread opportunities in the medium - term, and pay attention to cross - border arbitrage opportunities [83]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium price has risen recently, but short - term upward movement is limited. In the medium - term, demand may weaken. - Investment advice: Conduct range - trading in the short - term and look for opportunities to short on rallies in the medium - term [86]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia may restrict nickel smelting investment. The nickel market has weak fundamentals, and the price may continue to be weak in the short - term. - Investment advice: In the short - term, the price may continue to decline or rebound based on production cuts. In the medium - term, pay attention to Indonesia's policies [89]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is oscillating. The increase in heating demand in winter will support the carbon price. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term [92]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has increased, and the Russian Black Sea port was attacked, affecting oil exports. Geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices in the short - term. - Investment advice: Geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices in the short - term [95]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - International methanol production and capacity utilization have increased. The methanol price fell due to the decline in coking coal futures. The theoretical downward space is at least 100 yuan/ton. - Investment advice: The price is expected to reach 2000 yuan/ton [99]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories have increased export quotes. The market is in a seasonal off - season, and there is a risk of supply - demand deterioration in the future. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short the far - month processing margin and follow the movement of polyester raw material prices [102]. 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - ONE has cooperated with Chinese ports to promote green shipping. The EC2602 contract's delivery date has been adjusted, and its valuation may be revised. - Investment advice: The 12 - 02 contract spread is expected to return to par or a slight premium [105].

特朗普在高调宣扬美国实力逼中国让步之际，人民币国际化正悄然迈出关键一步，而西芒杜铁矿的投产正在静悄悄改变着中美实力对比的底层逻辑。 "我们和中国关系很好，但那是因为他们知道我强硬。 "特朗普在最近接受美媒采访时，再次展现了他标志性的自信。 他骄傲地认为，中国之所以愿意在贸 易谈判中达成协议，完全是因为美国实力太强，中国不敢招惹美国。 就在特朗普吹嘘美国实力的同一天，国际航空运输协会宣布正式将人民币纳入其清算所结算货币体系。 这一决定看似与经济无关，却深刻影响着中美实力 对比的底层逻辑。 特朗普的自信言论很快遭到了事实的打脸。 就在他夸耀"中国怕美国"的同时，美国政府却悄悄撤销了多项对华限制措施。 特朗普在福克斯新闻的采访中详细阐述了他的逻辑：美国的强大实力体现在两个方面，一是关税手段，二是军事实力。 他声称，正是这两大支柱让中国不 得不妥协。 但现实情况却大相径庭。 截至11月9日，美国政府已经停摆40多天，公共服务陷入瘫痪，甚至驻外军人的工资都需要盟友垫付。 这种国内困境迫使特朗普急 需一个"外交突破口"来转移视线。 与特朗普的"口头强国"形成鲜明对比的是，中国正在扎实推进人民币国际化进程。 11月5日，国 ...

Group 1 - Tianjin Rongcheng United Steel Group has transformed from a high-energy consumption and high-emission enterprise to a model for green transformation in Tianjin, utilizing a water purification system for fish farming [1] - The company has improved its "green" level by collecting, purifying, and reusing resources such as wastewater and waste gas in its production process [1] - Tianjin Rural Commercial Bank issued a transformation financial loan of 80 million yuan to the steel group to promote the rational use of residual heat and energy resources [1] Group 2 - As of September this year, the balance of green loans in Tianjin reached 847.8 billion yuan, a 19% increase from the beginning of the year, with an average annual increase of over 100 billion yuan since 2021 [1] - Tianjin has been innovative in green finance, launching transformation financial standards for the chemical industry and becoming one of the first pilot cities for transformation financial standards in the steel industry [1] - The city has also developed standardized processes for green leasing services and established a standardized information platform for green leasing [1] Group 3 - Tianjin's first "biodiversity + sustainable development linked loan" was issued recently, with 10 million yuan allocated for a crab-rice symbiosis project near Qilihai Wetland [2] - The project represents a typical example of biodiversity agriculture in Tianjin, supported by a tailored loan scheme from Weihai Bank [2] - The practice of green finance in Tianjin is attracting a number of green industry projects, enhancing the scale of green industries such as new energy, energy conservation, and ecological agriculture [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show effects, and the CPI and PPI both showed positive changes. The year - to - date foreign trade maintained a stable growth trend, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased. The bond market was generally weak and volatile, and the stock market had certain resilience [2][11]. - The end - of - year bond market has a certain probability of winning, but the odds are limited. The stock market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, and the convertible bond valuation will remain high and stable [28][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%. The CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [1]. - From January to October 2025, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, exports decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.4% year - on - year [11]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [2]. - A potential agreement to end the US government shutdown is "being gradually reached", and a polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform is being planned with a fund scale of about 70 billion yuan [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - As of November 7, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.17% from the previous trading day. The CSRC approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [4][5]. - On November 7, the domestic gold inventory reached a new high since January 2008, and the silver inventory reached a new low in nearly 10 years. Indian gold ETFs are experiencing record capital inflows [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - Linfen implemented differential peak - shifting production control for long - process steel enterprises, and German steel manufacturers are in a survival crisis [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Iraq set the official price of Basra medium - quality crude oil for North and South America in December at a discount of $1.35 per barrel to the ASCI [7]. - The cumulative shale oil production of Changqing Oilfield exceeded 20 million tons. Greece signed a long - term LNG supply contract with the US, and Japan plans to purchase LNG as emergency reserves starting from January 2026 [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of November 7, more than 70% of the wheat in Shanxi Province had been sown, and it is expected to complete the sowing task [9]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will expire. On November 7, the central bank conducted 141.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 21.34 billion yuan on that day [10]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - From January to October 2025, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, exports decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.4% year - on - year [11]. - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.343343 trillion, and the gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces, with continuous increases [12]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs suspended the implementation of multiple export control measures, and restored the soybean import qualifications of three US enterprises and the import of US logs [13]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was generally weak and volatile, with most interest - rate bond yields rising. Treasury bond futures declined, and the yields of bank "perpetual and secondary" bonds generally increased [21]. - In the exchange bond market, most Vanke bonds rose sharply, and the Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index increased by 0.66%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.08% [21][22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1225 on November 9, down 6 points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.16% in late New York trading [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the export growth rate in October was lower than expected, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year. The import growth rate was also lower than expected, which may be related to the decline in manufacturing prosperity [27]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market's calendar effect has become more prominent since 2019. The end - of - year bond market has a certain probability of winning, but the odds are limited. The stock market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term [28][29]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - Last week, the institutional research enthusiasm remained high, with 418 listed companies disclosing institutional research records. A - share market showed a weak and volatile trend last week, and institutions suggest paying attention to certain sectors [32]. - Brokerage firms' November strategies indicate that short - term factors have led to style fluctuations in the market, but corporate profits are in the recovery stage, and the medium - term outlook is still positive [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, with the storage and new - energy sectors leading the gains. The domestic economic data in October is expected to face a decline in pressure, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [9]. - For the black industry, the medium - term (winter) view remains to be bearish on rallies. The coal - coke prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the prices of iron alloys are recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term [14][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, the demand for lithium carbonate continues to support the price, and the zinc price can be considered to be shorted on rallies. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to trade within a range [20][21][24]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton and sugar are under supply pressure, eggs may be strong in the short - term but the increase is limited, and the prices of other products such as corn, jujubes, and live pigs are affected by various factors and need attention [27][30][33]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, and the prices of various chemical products such as plastics, rubber, and methanol are affected by factors such as supply and demand and cost, with different trends and trading suggestions [39][42][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China has announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including tariff adjustments and the relaxation of export controls on some US entities [6]. - The US Supreme Court is debating the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff measures, and the results may be announced in December. The US federal government's "shutdown" has broken the historical record, which may reduce the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter [6][8]. - The ADP employment and service industry PMI in the US in October were better than expected, which added uncertainty to the Fed's decision on whether to cut interest rates in December [8]. - Guizhou Moutai has launched a second - round share repurchase and announced a mid - year profit distribution plan. The scope of institutions participating in the stock repurchase and increase loan business is expected to expand [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened low and closed high, with the storage and new - energy sectors leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3969.25 points, and the daily trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan. The domestic economic data in October is expected to face a decline in pressure, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [9]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and loose, and the price is stable. The treasury bond futures opened high and closed low, showing a seesaw effect with the A - share market. The symbolic meaning of the central bank's bond - buying is more positive than the actual scale, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [11]. 3.4 Black Industry 3.4.1 Iron Ore and Steel - The spot prices of steel and iron ore fluctuated. The prices were affected by factors such as environmental protection restrictions and steel mill maintenance. In the medium - term, the winter market may show a pattern of first rising and then falling, and the steel price is expected to have limited rebound space. The medium - term view is to be bearish on rallies [12][13][14]. 3.4.2 Coal - Coke - The short - term iron - making volume has a downward space, and the coal - coke prices continue to fluctuate at a high level. In the short - term, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the weakening demand for steel during the off - season will restrict the price [15]. 3.4.3 Ferroalloys - Affected by the price increase of动力煤 and lump coal, the cost of ferrosilicon is expected to increase, but the black sector is weak, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.5.1 Zinc - The zinc price fluctuated. The import of refined zinc in China decreased in September. The downstream demand is cautious, and the price can be considered to be shorted on rallies [20]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - The demand for lithium carbonate continues to increase, and the supply increase is less than the demand increase. Although the expected resumption of production of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine affects the market sentiment, the strong demand in the short - term still supports the price [21]. 3.5.3 Industrial Silicon - The contradiction of industrial silicon is not prominent. It is affected by the macro - environment and coal prices. It is expected to trade within a range, and small - position long positions can be tried at the lower end of the range [24]. 3.5.4 Polysilicon - The spot trading of polysilicon is in a stalemate. The market is affected by policies and fundamentals, and it is expected to trade within a range [25]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Cotton - The supply of cotton is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. 3.6.2 Sugar - The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is affected by factors such as import cost and domestic production cost. It is recommended to operate with a short - selling strategy or wait and see [30]. 3.6.3 Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong due to the expectation of "capacity reduction". The spot price may be strong in November, but the increase is limited. It is recommended to operate according to the range - trading idea [33]. 3.6.4 Apples - The acquisition of apples is in the middle - late stage, and the price is stable. The market is expected to be strong with fluctuations [35]. 3.6.5 Corn - The spot price of corn has rebounded to some extent, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. 3.6.6 Jujubes - The spot price of jujubes in the sales area is weak, which affects the new - jujube ordering price. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 3.6.7 Live Pigs - The supply pressure of live pigs continues, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [38]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Industry 3.7.1 Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased, and the oil price is under pressure. The OPEC+ measure to delay the increase in production in the first quarter has limited impact, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [39]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price fluctuates with the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term trading focus is on the impact of sanctions on the supply [41]. 3.7.3 Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a bearish - on - rallies trading idea [42]. 3.7.4 Rubber - The raw material price in the Yunnan region of China has slightly decreased, and the price in Thailand is firm. The fundamental situation is still slightly weak, and it is recommended to hold short - call option strategies [43]. 3.7.5 Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly due to the decline in raw material prices. It is recommended to be cautious about going long [44]. 3.7.6 Methanol - The methanol market fluctuates greatly due to factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods and potential plant maintenance. The supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to be bearish on rallies in the near - term and wait for a rebound in the far - term [46]. 3.7.7 Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a range - trading idea [48]. 3.7.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range due to factors such as the change in oil price focus, production increase, and geopolitical risks [48]. 3.7.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain lacks a clear driving direction and is expected to follow the cost - end movement. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity of ethylene glycol [50]. 3.7.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is affected by different factors. The price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term [52]. 3.7.11 Pulp - The pulp spot price is stable, and the market has rigid demand. The price is expected to be supported but has limited upside space. It is recommended to establish long positions at low prices after observing the port inventory and spot trading [53]. 3.7.12 Logs - The spot trading of logs is weak, and the supply pressure exists. The price is expected to be under pressure [54]. 3.7.13 Urea - The spot price of urea has increased, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading idea [55].