1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as the Iran - US conflict, macro - economic recovery, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. Different industries have different outlooks, including expected price trends, supply - demand situations, and investment strategies [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in treasury bond futures. The 30 - year contract rose 0.07% to 110.710 yuan, while 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts fell by 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.02% respectively. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to face pressure, suggesting a cautious approach [5]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day had mixed performance in stock index futures. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures contracts fell by 3.56%, 3.43%, 4.88%, and 5.55% respectively. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak. The market is affected by the Iran situation, with expected increased volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [7][8]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver futures fell in the previous trading day, with gold down 9.55% and silver down 12.56%. The long - term logic for precious metals remains strong, but due to Iran situation uncertainty, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [10][11]. 3.4 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly in the previous trading day. In the short - term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on supply - demand. In the medium - term, prices are determined by industry supply - demand. Rebar demand is declining, but supply pressure is reduced. Prices may rebound but with limited space. Investors can look for low - position long opportunities [13][14]. 3.5 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures rose slightly in the previous trading day. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment in the short - term. The increase in national hot metal production is positive for prices, but the high inventory limits the upside. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound. Investors can look for low - position long opportunities [16]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures rose significantly in the previous trading day. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on supply - demand. Coking coal supply is increasing, while demand is improving. Coke supply is stable, and demand is expanding. Technically, they may continue to be strong. Investors can look for low - position long opportunities [18][19]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose in the previous trading day. The cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating slightly, and production is at a low level. Supply is relatively loose, and inventory is increasing. After a short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [21]. 3.8 Crude Oil - INE crude oil rose significantly in the previous trading day due to concerns about the US - Iran conflict. The increase in net long positions in futures and options shows that US funds are bullish on the future. However, the US - Iran situation is uncertain. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the main crude oil contract [22][23]. 3.9 Polyolefins - The PP and LLDPE markets rose in the previous trading day. Geopolitical issues increase cost pressure, and the industry is reducing production. Supply is decreasing, while downstream demand is increasing. It is necessary to operate cautiously and stay on the sidelines [25][26]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber futures hit the daily limit in the previous trading day. The main contradiction is cost - driven. The price may remain strong in the short - term. Supply is under pressure, demand is affected by the Middle East conflict, and cost support is weakening. It is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [28]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - Natural rubber futures rose in the previous trading day. The core contradiction is the game between the cost of synthetic rubber and the expectation of substitution demand, and the approaching of the domestic production season, slow demand recovery, and inventory pressure. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [30]. 3.12 PVC - PVC futures rose significantly in the previous trading day. The core contradiction is the game between energy and raw material supply concerns, spring demand, and high inventory. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, but the upside is limited by high inventory [32]. 3.13 Urea - Urea futures rose in the previous trading day. The main contradiction is between high supply and policy - capped prices. The price is expected to be in a weak - side oscillation, but the downside is limited by cost and demand [34]. 3.14 PX - PX futures rose significantly and then fell at night in the previous trading day. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are narrowing, and the processing fee has room for repair. Due to raw material concerns, PX plants are reducing production. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [36]. 3.15 PTA - PTA futures rose and then fell at night in the previous trading day. The processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton. Supply is decreasing due to raw material issues, and demand recovery is less than expected. The price is expected to be in a short - term multi - empty game, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [38]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol futures rose and then fell at night in the previous trading day. Supply is slightly decreasing, and inventory is increasing. The price is affected by the geopolitical situation and is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to negotiation progress and the situation in the Strait [39][40]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - Short - fiber futures rose and then fell at night in the previous trading day. Supply is slightly decreasing, and demand is weakening. The price is mainly driven by cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [41]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - Bottle - chip futures rose and then fell at night in the previous trading day. The processing fee is around 1200 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is affected by raw material price fluctuations, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [42]. 3.19 Soda Ash - Soda ash futures rose in the previous trading day. Supply is at a high level, and inventory is decreasing. Downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a stable - side oscillation in the short - term [45][46]. 3.20 Glass - Glass futures rose in the previous trading day. Production lines are shrinking, and inventory reduction is slowing down. Demand from deep - processing plants is weak. The price is affected by external sentiment and cost, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [47][48]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures rose in the previous trading day. Supply is slightly decreasing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is supported by cost and demand. The 50% and 32% caustic soda prices show different trends. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and export orders [49][51]. 3.22 Pulp - Pulp futures rose in the previous trading day. Port inventory is decreasing, and production is increasing. The price is supported by inventory reduction. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. Needle - leaf pulp has greater volatility, while broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable [52]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose in the previous trading day. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. Supply is tight, and demand from the energy - storage sector is strong. The price has support, but short - term volatility may increase [53][54]. 3.24 Copper - Copper futures rose in the previous trading day. The macro - environment suppresses copper prices, but the supply - side shortage is still strong, and demand has a certain foundation. The price is expected to be in a weak - side oscillation with a bottom [55]. 3.25 Aluminum - Aluminum futures rose slightly, while alumina futures fell in the previous trading day. Alumina has a cost - driven rebound, but the supply - demand surplus persists. Aluminum prices are under pressure due to weak reality, but there is support at the bottom. They are expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [57][58]. 3.26 Zinc - Zinc futures rose in the previous trading day. Zinc ore supply is increasing, and demand in the real - estate sector is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure [60]. 3.27 Lead - Lead futures rose slightly in the previous trading day. Primary lead production is increasing, while secondary lead production is delayed. Demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [62]. 3.28 Tin - Tin futures rose significantly in the previous trading day. The market risk preference has recovered. Supply is slightly easing, and demand is supported by the photovoltaic industry. The price has support, but short - term volatility may increase [65]. 3.29 Nickel - Nickel futures rose slightly in the previous trading day. The market risk preference has recovered. Nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, but stainless - steel demand is weak. The price is under pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies [66]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Soybean meal futures fell, while soybean oil futures rose in the previous trading day. Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and US soybean demand is expected to increase. Domestic soybean supply may be tight in the short - term and relatively loose in the medium - term. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [67][68]. 3.31 Palm Oil - Palm oil exports are increasing, and domestic imports are also increasing. The inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69][70]. 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are increasing, and inventories are at different levels. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [70]. 3.33 Cotton - Cotton futures rose slightly in the previous trading day. Global cotton production is expected to decrease, and China's supply may be tight in the long - term. However, the recent quota issuance is a short - term negative factor. The price is expected to be strong in the long - term after a decline [71][72]. 3.34 Sugar - Sugar futures rebounded slightly in the previous trading day. Overseas, the increase in ethanol prices is beneficial to sugar prices. Domestically, supply is sufficient. The long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise [73][74]. 3.35 Apple - Apple futures fell significantly in the previous trading day. As the Tomb - Sweeping Festival approaches, demand is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to be stable and strong. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory reduction and weather conditions [75]. 3.36 Live Pigs - Live - pig futures fell in the previous trading day. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly adjusted in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly [76][77]. 3.37 Eggs - Egg futures rose in the previous trading day. Egg supply is at a high level, but there is short - term improvement. It is recommended to gradually take profits on short positions in the far - month contracts [78]. 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn and corn - starch futures rose in the previous trading day. North - port corn inventory is low, and demand is slightly improving. The corn market is basically balanced in supply and demand. Corn - starch demand is slightly improving, but supply is abundant. It is possible to pay attention to the far - month put options [79][80]. 3.39 Logs - Log futures rose slightly in the previous trading day. New Zealand log shipments are increasing, and domestic inventory is decreasing. Downstream demand is improving, but there is a differentiation in terminal consumption. The price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. It is necessary to pay attention to external quotes and downstream consumption [81][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as using stock index as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium to long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL on rallies [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 23, A - share four major stock indexes continued to correct. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.63% to 3813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to 13345.51 points, the ChiNext Index fell 3.49% to 3235.22 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 4.31% to 1261.44 points. Market turnover was 24,481 billion yuan, an increase of 1,453 billion yuan from the previous day. Coal (+0.2%) and petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.06%) performed well, while social services (-6.41%), beauty care (-6.02%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-5.56%) performed poorly. From the perspective of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 305/14/5,170 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - investor, and retail investors' net inflows of funds throughout the day were - 402, - 393, 192, and 603 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 284, - 111, +219, +177 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 111.11, 103.15, 32.8, and 0.73 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 10.41%, - 9.63%, - 5.16%, and - 0.18% respectively. Their three - year historical quantiles were 42%, 24%, 24%, and 49% respectively [2] - **Transaction Strategy**: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 23, treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.05%, T fell 0.09%, and TL rose 0.07% [2] - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2606 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250024.IB, with a yield change of +0.8bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.041, and an IRR of 1.25%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250014.IB, with a yield change of +0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.045, and an IRR of 1.24%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250025.IB, with a yield change of +1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.039, and an IRR of 1.26%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.35, and an IRR of 0.21% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 8 billion yuan and withdrew 137.3 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 129.3 billion yuan [2] - **Transaction Strategy**: The short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium to long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL on rallies [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of various sectors has declined [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President signaled short - term easing, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. International energy prices dropped sharply, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields declined. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better - than - expected from January to February, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The market trading logic is mainly focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index may be volatile and weak, but it may pick up after the US President's easing signal. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment [3][4]. - For different asset classes: short - term stock index is volatile and weak, with intensified fluctuations, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; government bonds are short - term volatile, and cautious observation is needed; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term volatile and rebounding, and short - term cautious observation is required; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and weak, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products are short - term highly volatile, and cautious long - positions are advised; precious metals are short - term highly volatile and generally weak, and cautious observation is needed [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's statement about postponing the attack on Iran's energy infrastructure (though Iran denied it) led to a short - term easing of the situation, a sharp drop in international energy prices, and a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Domestically, the economy and inflation from January to February were better than expected. The goals and policy intensity in the 2026 government work report are lower than in 2025. The stock index may be volatile and weak in the short term but may improve after the US President's easing signal. Attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as precious metals, hotels and tourism, and components, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The economy and inflation from January to February were better than expected. The market trading logic is focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. The stock index is short - term volatile and weak, but may pick up after the US President's easing signal. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market had a significant gap - up on Monday night. The Shanghai gold main contract closed at 980 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; the Shanghai silver main contract closed at 17,246 yuan/kilogram, up 3.47%. Spot gold and silver fluctuated greatly. Short - term precious metals are highly volatile and have rebounded. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. The price rebound was driven by strong coking coal, but the industry fundamentals are still weak. Steel inventory has peaked and declined, and the growth of apparent consumption of five major varieties has slowed. After the important meeting, the output of five major varieties of steel and hot metal increased last week. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost drops [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly on Monday, boosted by the strong crude oil price. In terms of fundamentals, the daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces increased, and the profitability of steel mills remained around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. The shipment and arrival volume of iron ore will increase this week, and the problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch is gradually being alleviated. It is expected that the room for further price increase of iron ore is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the energy price weakens [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The rebound was affected by the rising crude oil price and the energy substitution logic and will continue in the short term. The manganese ore spot price is still firm. The capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The northern production is relatively stable, and the profit margin is acceptable. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices can be considered from a volatile and upward perspective [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The spot TC has dropped below - 60 US dollars/ton, a new low. By - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, and the copper mine is generally considered to be tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The inventory at home and abroad has continued to accumulate, reaching a record high. The copper price has dropped sharply, and downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventory. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [9]. - **Aluminum**: The market trading logic on Monday continued from last week, trading on the logic that high oil prices lead to an increase in inflation expectations and a delay in interest rate cuts. The precious metals continued to fall sharply, and the non - ferrous metal sector was searching for a bottom. The domestic primary aluminum output increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum imports remain high, and the waste aluminum imports have decreased slightly. The domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists [9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fees in the southern and northern regions of China have changed. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and by - product revenues make up for losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters reduced production in 2025 but will resume production in 2026. The demand is not optimistic, and the zinc ingot inventory has decreased after seasonal accumulation. The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly [11]. - **Lead**: The production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The supply pressure still exists. The demand peak season has passed and is gradually entering the off - season. The LME lead inventory has remained at a high level since 2025, and the domestic primary lead social inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same period in recent years [12]. - **Nickel**: The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly, and although there is room for improvement later, the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. In the first quarter, the mining enterprises will maintain normal production. Due to the Middle East conflict and previous tailings accidents, the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad [12]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar in the first two months increased significantly, and the import from other sources also increased rapidly. The opening rate is still at a high level in the same period in recent years. The tin ingot import has decreased. The demand is uneven, with the semiconductor industry growing rapidly but other industries performing poorly. The downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a decline in social tin ingot inventory, while the LME inventory has increased. The tin price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, but caution is needed when going long [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has reached a new high, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously being depleted. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a stronger US dollar, suppressing commodity prices, but high oil prices are beneficial to the long - term demand for new energy. The price rebounded at the end of yesterday, but the rumored shutdown of a lithium mine in Zimbabwe needs to be verified, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. It is expected to oscillate at the support level in the short term [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the number of open furnaces has increased slightly. The social inventory is at a high level and stable, and the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. Affected by coking coal, it is expected to be strongly volatile [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly inventory has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt has decreased. In the long - term, the policy - oriented market clearance is negative. The price is currently in the full - cost range of the industry. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of the photovoltaic industry after April. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US postponed the attack on Iran's power facilities, and Trump said that his team had started discussions on ending the conflict. Although Iran denied it, the oil price dropped by more than 14%. The potential negotiation situation is still unclear, but the short - term upside space of the oil price will be limited. However, the US military's attacks on Iran's power - related facilities and the deployment of the Marine Corps still attract market attention. The oil price will continue to be strongly volatile in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price dropped sharply, and asphalt followed. The terminal demand showed some negative feedback, but the total inventory remained low, and the inventory accumulation pressure was limited, giving some upward expectations to asphalt. Recently, refineries have预防性 reduced their production, and the supply will continue to be at a low level. The short - term absolute price will continue to fluctuate greatly following the crude oil. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the Iran situation [16]. - **PX**: The oil price dropped sharply, and PX followed the energy and chemical sector. The price difference between PX and naphtha was suppressed. The downstream start - up recovery is slow, and the willingness to purchase raw materials after the previous emotional stockpiling has decreased. PX is affected by negative feedback. If the oil price strengthens later, there is still some upward space under the cost - driven logic [16]. - **PTA**: The energy and chemical sector followed the crude oil to drop sharply. PTA has seen obvious capital inflows recently, and the decline is about 4%. The downstream manufacturers' willingness to stockpile has decreased significantly, leading to negative feedback and suppressing the PTA price. The basis has decreased significantly, and the production - sales ratio has also decreased. The processing fee has continued to decrease. If the oil price remains strongly volatile, the PTA price will temporarily remain in a range [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the polyester sector followed the crude oil price to drop sharply, ethylene glycol gave back a lot of its gains. However, the overall overseas supply shortage is difficult to change. The export expectation of ethylene glycol has increased significantly, and the port inventory has started to be depleted. The basis of ethylene glycol has strengthened slightly, and there is still upward momentum after breaking through the previous high [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The polyester sector has declined significantly. The production - sales ratio remains at a low level, and the terminal start - up is significantly lower than in previous years, suppressing the upside space of short - fiber. The price negative feedback continues to be transmitted, and the inventory has increased again after the previous de - stocking. The manufacturers' willingness to stockpile has decreased. It will continue to be strongly volatile following PTA and other varieties in the short term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract closed at 1164.50, up 3.25 or 0.28% (settlement price 1163.50). The stability of Sino - US soybean trade relations has been disturbed by the news of Trump's postponed visit to China. During the South American soybean harvest season, the export and sales data of high - priced US soybeans have deteriorated, dragging down the CBOT soybean price. The US biodiesel policy will be finalized soon, and the trading sentiment of US soybean oil driven by crude oil is cautious, with increased uncertainty and more fund - holding for observation [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans at oil mills has decreased seasonally, and there is no news of reserve auctions. The current operation level remains medium, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories are being depleted rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis to be stable and strong. Although the cost support has weakened with the adjustment of US soybeans, the risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and with the increase in rapeseed imports, the supply concern has subsided. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has widened slightly, but it is still low, and the substitution consumption space of rapeseed meal is limited. It will mainly fluctuate with soybean meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is being depleted rapidly, supporting the basis to be stable, and there is a possibility of further pricing the risk of short - term shortage of imported soybeans. The rapeseed oil supply pressure may gradually appear with the increase in Canadian rapeseed arrivals, and it basically fluctuates in line with soybean and palm oil [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The international crude oil is oscillating at a high level, but during the important observation window of the Middle East situation, the trading sentiment of crude oil is cautious, and the support of vegetable oils from crude oil risks has weakened. Internationally, the export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, the production has decreased, and the inventory may continue to decline. Domestically, the palm oil inventory has decreased [21][22]. - **Corn**: The national corn price has fluctuated. The futures price is running strongly, driving up the purchase price at the northern port. The sales progress of corn in the main producing areas has slowed down, and the storage cost of traders is high, so there is still a sentiment of supporting the price. The port and deep - processing inventories are low, supporting the price to be stable. The downstream feed enterprises are using more imported grains and policy - auctioned grains, and their acceptance of high - priced corn has decreased. The news of brown rice auctions in early April has not been confirmed, which may have a negative impact on the corn price [22]. - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the painful period of accelerated adjustment. The demand has improved marginally but is still in the off - season. The losses of farmers have increased, and the expectation of production capacity reduction has increased. The pig weight is increasing, and the second - fattening and frozen - product storage have increased. Retail farmers are reluctant to sell, but the group - farm sales have increased significantly. It is expected that the short - term spot and futures prices may continue to fall, and there are still risks in the futures market [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is having an unprecedented impact on global energy supply, with a significant drop in Middle - East oil exports [6]. - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range, shows a cautious stance, and raises inflation and economic growth expectations [7]. - The prices of various commodities in the market are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic policies, showing different trends [4][11][15]. - The A - share market is under pressure due to external factors, and investors are advised to control positions and be cautious [21][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, most chemical futures prices declined. For example, crude oil dropped by 11.071% to 742.20, and fuel oil dropped by 9.368% to 4,586.00. Only natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and paper pulp showed price increases [4]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, most agricultural product futures prices declined. For example, yellow soybean No. 1 dropped by 0.943% to 4,725.00, and yellow soybean No. 2 dropped by 1.416% to 3,759.00. Only No. 1 cotton and cotton yarn showed price increases [4]. 3.3 Macro - economic News - Middle - East energy facilities have been attacked, and the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is escalating, causing a sharp decline in Middle - East oil exports [6]. - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a dovish member advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed raises inflation and economic growth expectations [7]. - China will continue to communicate on President Trump's visit to China, and China is carrying out the second - round pilot project of extending the land contract for another 30 years [8]. 3.4 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be strong, while domestic sugar prices are under short - term supply pressure but may be supported by international costs in the long - term, maintaining a volatile pattern [11]. - **Corn**: The price has broken through the previous range, and there are both supply and demand factors. Attention should be paid to the risk of high - level correction [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is in a high - level volatile pattern, with support from the supply side and pressure from the demand side [11]. - **Pig**: The supply is sufficient, the market is pessimistic, and the price is still seeking a bottom [11]. - **Egg**: The spot price is stable, showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and short - term trading is recommended [13]. - **Jujube**: The market has entered the off - season, and the price is under pressure and may continue to fall [13]. - **Cotton**: The supply impact is small, the demand is improving, and long - positions can be considered on pullbacks [13]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price is rising due to export support, but attention should be paid to the risk of near - month contract correction [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port price is rising, and coke has started the first round of price increase. The price may fluctuate in the short - term, and low - buying is recommended [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price has broken through the previous range, and short - term long - positions can be considered on pullbacks [15]. - **Urea**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short - term, and the price may continue to consolidate at a high level [15]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are in a high - level volatile pattern, affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and geopolitical situation [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices are under pressure due to geopolitical risks and the Fed's hawkish signals, and investors should wait for the price to stabilize [17]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals change little, and a low - buying strategy can be considered, while being vigilant against macro - risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot market is improving, and the price is supported at a low level. Low - buying is recommended, paying attention to the short - term geopolitical impact [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices are rising, mainly due to energy premiums. A callback - buying strategy can be considered, but high - level chasing risks exist [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has broken through the previous range. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 150,000 yuan and the support at 145,000 yuan, and the risk of high - level correction [18]. 3.4.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 23, the A - share market declined, and different stock index futures and options showed different trends. Trend investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can adjust their strategies according to the market trend [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is under pressure due to external factors. It is recommended to control positions and be cautious, and different investment styles can choose different sectors [21][22][23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The escalation of the US-Iran war has become the core disturbance factor in the global market, triggering expectations of a significant increase in crude oil prices and further fueling global inflation concerns. In this context, central banks around the world have adopted a cautious approach to monetary policy easing, with major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all choosing to maintain current interest rates. The latest statement from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee sent a hawkish signal, indicating that further interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The central banks' cautious stance has further strengthened the market trend of a simultaneous increase in real interest rates and the US dollar. Coupled with a continuous decline in the market's expectation of near-term interest rate cuts, the US dollar index has strengthened, and US bond yields have risen, putting continuous pressure on the valuation of precious metals. If the US dollar remains strong and the expectation of interest rate cuts continues to be postponed, the downward pressure will persist. The report suggests a cautious bearish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 920 - 1050 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 14,500 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 1.30% to 980.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.88% to 17,246.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.37% to 4,423.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.49% to 69.70 US dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.34%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.11 [2]. Policy Information - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that inflation has become the primary risk, and an interest rate hike cannot be ruled out, but there is still room for interest rate cuts within the year. Fed Governor Milan said that if there is a second-round effect of inflation and wage increases, there is a theoretical need for an interest rate hike, but there is currently no need to consider it, and he still expects four interest rate cuts in 2026 [2]. Geopolitical Information - US President Trump posted on social media that the US and Iran had conducted good and productive talks on comprehensively resolving hostilities in the Middle East in the past two days, and the talks would continue this week. He has instructed the Department of Defense to postpone a five-day military strike on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, provided that the talks are successful. The Iranian Foreign Ministry, senior leadership, and Iranian media all denied having negotiations with the US, stating that Trump's aim was to lower energy prices and gain time for his military plan [3]. Gold and Silver Data Summary - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was not available, the trading volume was not available, the open interest decreased by 0.62% to 41.14 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.07% to 996 tons [6]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price decreased by 0.82% to 4,562.55 US dollars/ounce, the closing price of the active contract in yuan/gram decreased by 9.55% to 940.00 yuan/gram, the trading volume increased by 25.38% to 85.46 million lots, the open interest decreased by 2.27% to 29.31 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.09% to 106.75 tons, the settled funds decreased by 11.60% to 44.082 billion yuan, and the closing price of the short-to-long position decreased by 11.49% to 920.99 yuan/gram [6]. - **SHFE Gold**: The trading volume of AuT+D increased by 24.04% to 104.37 tons, and the open interest increased by 6.20% to 241.49 tons [6]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was not available, the open interest decreased by 0.61% to 11.48 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.18% to 10,329 tons [6]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price increased by 3.83% to 72.37 US dollars/ounce, the closing price of the active contract in yuan/kilogram decreased by 12.56% to 15,411.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume increased by 10.80% to 202.63 million lots, the open interest decreased by 0.58% to 45.60 million lots, the inventory increased by 0.57% to 364.55 tons, the settled funds decreased by 13.07% to 18.973 billion yuan, and the closing price of the short-to-long position decreased by 14.12% to 15,269.00 yuan/kilogram [6]. - **SHFE Silver**: The trading volume of AgT+D decreased by 7.90% to 478.84 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.08% to 2,916.42 tons [6]. ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The iShare US gold ETF's holding decreased by 0.31% to 475.87 tons, the SGBS Swiss gold ETF's holding decreased by 0.08% to 35.05 tons, while the GBS UK, PHAU UK, and GOLD UK gold ETFs' holdings remained unchanged [67]. - **Silver ETFs**: The closing price of silver ETFs increased by 1.54% to 62.47 US dollars, the holding increased by 1.74% to 15,513.67 tons, the settled funds of the SLV US silver ETF decreased by 5.50% to 3.352 billion US dollars, the trading volume increased by 27.25% to 7,182.99 million shares, and the holdings of the ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada silver ETFs remained unchanged [67].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran conflict. Uncertainty in the negotiation between the US and Iran has led to large fluctuations in the prices of various commodities, including oil, precious metals, and industrial raw materials [22][69][118]. - Different sectors show different trends. For example, the financial derivatives market is expected to have technical rebounds in the stock index futures but with unclear directions due to the unstable Middle - East situation; the bond market is likely to be in a narrow - range fluctuation [22][25]. In the agricultural products market, factors such as supply, demand, and external market conditions lead to different price trends for each variety [28][29][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The stock index tumbled on Monday, with all major indices and futures contracts experiencing significant declines, and the trading volume and open interest increased. The main reason for the decline is the impact of the escalating Middle - East situation on market sentiment [21]. - **Investment Logic**: After continuous sharp drops, a technical rebound may occur, but the Middle - East situation remains unclear, and the risk preference is decreasing. The market direction after the shock is still uncertain [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a grid operation in the shock consolidation; conduct the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF; and wait and see for options [23]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures closed down on Monday, with the yields of most active bonds in the inter - bank market rising, and the market capital tightened. The long - end spread narrowed slightly [24]. - **Investment Logic**: The bond market is short of substantial positive drivers for upward movement. However, factors such as the narrow - range fluctuation of capital prices, the general profit - making effect in the equity market, and relatively weak domestic demand support the bond market to some extent [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; consider lightly shorting the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) for arbitrage [26]. 3.2 Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean index rose, while the CBOT soybean meal index fell. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased [28][29]. - **Investment Logic**: Market disturbances have increased, and the market is in a wide - range shock. The fundamentals of US soybeans are under pressure, and rapeseed meal generally follows the trend of soybean meal [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [29]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The international sugar price declined slightly, and the domestic sugar price fluctuated. The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have completed the crushing process has increased, and the spot price in the main production areas has remained stable [30][32][33]. - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the expected increase in sugar production in India and Thailand may be lower than expected, which supports the international sugar price. Domestically, the supply pressure is relatively high, but considering the price difference between the domestic and international markets, the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international trend slightly [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou sugar is recommended to buy low and sell high; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [35]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybean oil price changed slightly, and the Malaysian market was closed for a holiday. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased, and the soybean arrival concern has alleviated [37]. - **Investment Logic**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the oil price dropped sharply and then rebounded, and the oil market followed the trend. The inventory of domestic oils is at a moderately high level [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the oil may fluctuate at a high level in the short term; consider the reverse arbitrage opportunity for p59; wait and see for options [38]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The CBOT corn futures price declined. The domestic wheat price rose slightly, and the export of corn starch increased. The corn inventory in the northern ports increased [39][40][41]. - **Investment Logic**: The US corn price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The demand for deep - processing of corn has increased, and the port price is stable. The 05 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider a long - position idea for the 05 corn contract on the callback; for the 05 corn - starch spread, consider narrowing the spread when it is high; wait and see for options [41]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The live pig price has declined overall, and the prices of piglets and sows have also decreased [42]. - **Investment Logic**: The relatively strong feed price has affected the breeding profit, and there is still pressure on live pig sales due to the large inventory [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the wide - straddle strategy for options [43]. Peanuts - **Market Performance**: The average price of peanut kernels has decreased slightly, the price of peanut oil has been stable, and the price of peanut meal has been stable. The inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in sample enterprises has increased [45][46]. - **Investment Logic**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 05 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The current price is at a high level, and the market is in a state of contango [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - term long positions when the 05 peanut contract is in a narrow - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [47]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The main egg price has remained stable, the inventory of laying hens has increased, and the sales volume of eggs has increased [48][49]. - **Investment Logic**: The previous good profit has reduced the enthusiasm for culling hens, and the future supply may be under pressure. Consider short - selling the June contract [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the June contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The inventory of apples in cold storage has decreased rapidly, and the price in the origin has remained stable [51]. - **Investment Logic**: Although the fundamentals of apples are strong, the upward momentum of the May contract is limited. The market may focus on the production of new - season apples in the future, and there is a risk of frost damage [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, exit and wait and see for the May contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: The outer - market cotton price has declined. The drought in the US cotton - producing areas is still at a relatively high level, and the price of Pakistani yarn has increased [54][55]. - **Investment Logic**: The increase in the import quota is expected to have a positive impact on the US cotton price and narrow the price difference between the domestic and international markets. The domestic cotton price is expected to follow the upward trend of the US cotton price, but the decline space is limited [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider building long positions at low prices for Zhengzhou cotton; wait and see for arbitrage and options [56]. 3.3 Black Metals Steel Products - **Market Performance**: The downstream construction restart progress is slightly slower than last year, and the inventory of Shanghai construction steel is expected to start to decline in early April [58]. - **Investment Logic**: The black - metal sector declined at night due to the fall in the international oil price. The supply of steel products has increased, the demand has improved, but the overall inventory is still high. The steel price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the steel price is expected to remain volatile without a clear trend; for arbitrage, consider shorting the coil - coal ratio; wait and see for options [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The imported Mongolian coking coal market is strong, and the first - round price increase of coke has started [60]. - **Investment Logic**: The coking coal price followed the oil price decline at night. The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, and the fluctuation is large. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The global iron - ore shipment volume has increased, and the port trading volume has increased [63]. - **Investment Logic**: The iron - ore price has risen to a high level, and the market game has intensified. Although the supply is still at a high level, there are multiple supply disturbances. It is recommended that spot enterprises hedge at high prices [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hedge at high prices for spot; for arbitrage, enter the reverse arbitrage for the 5/9 spread; wait and see for options [64]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have risen, and the supply and demand of steel products have improved [65][66]. - **Investment Logic**: Driven by energy costs, the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: The gold and silver markets fluctuated widely, with gold prices falling and silver prices rising [68]. - **Investment Logic**: Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the Fed's attitude towards interest rates, the gold and silver prices are under pressure. In the short term, they are expected to face "headwinds" [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider short - term short - selling; wait and see for arbitrage and options [70][71]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market Performance**: The platinum and palladium markets fluctuated weakly and then rebounded [72]. - **Investment Logic**: The market is affected by the energy price, and the uncertainty is high. The platinum market is in a tight - balance state, and the palladium market is in a surplus state [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; wait for the opportunity to go long on the platinum - palladium spread at a low level; wait and see for options [73]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The copper futures price has risen, and the LME inventory has increased [75]. - **Investment Logic**: The US - Iran negotiation situation is uncertain. The copper supply is tight, and the copper price is expected to be affected by the negotiation situation [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level; wait and see for arbitrage and options [76]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina futures price has declined, and the spot price has risen slightly [77]. - **Investment Logic**: Guinea's bauxite export policy is uncertain. The new domestic alumina production capacity needs time to be released stably, and the alumina price is expected to fluctuate weakly [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum futures price has risen, and the spot price has declined [80]. - **Investment Logic**: The Middle - East situation is uncertain, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The local aluminum production capacity has reduced production preventively [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: No significant market performance information is provided in the report. - **Investment Logic**: The Middle - East situation is uncertain, and the financial attribute has a significant impact on the price. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum price; wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The zinc futures price has risen, and the spot price has been stable. The domestic inventory has decreased [87]. - **Investment Logic**: The zinc price is affected by macro and capital emotions. Although the domestic inventory is high, the consumption shows signs of recovery, and the overseas supply may be reduced [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level; wait and see for arbitrage and options [88]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The lead futures price has risen, and the spot price has been stable. The domestic inventory has decreased [89][90]. - **Investment Logic**: The lead price has been under pressure due to macro and fundamental factors, but there is support at the bottom due to the upcoming peak season [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level; wait and see for arbitrage and options [90]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The nickel futures price has risen, and the LME inventory has decreased [91]. - **Investment Logic**: The nickel price is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. The supply and demand in March have narrowed, and the inventory has decreased. It is necessary to wait for the trading logic to switch [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [91]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: No significant market performance information is provided in the report. - **Investment Logic**: The stainless - steel price is expected to follow the nickel price, and the short - term macro impact is large [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading and arbitrage [93]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate within a range [95]. - **Investment Logic**: The demand for industrial silicon from the silicone industry is expected to decrease, and the polysilicon production may increase in April. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider buying at the lower end of the range; no specific strategy for arbitrage and options [97]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon price is expected to be weak in the short term [98]. - **Investment Logic**: The polysilicon production has increased in March, and the demand in April is expected to weaken. It is necessary to pay attention to policy guidance [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to be weak; no specific strategy for arbitrage and options [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: No significant market performance information is provided in the report. - **Investment Logic**: The domestic supply and demand in March have loosened, and the price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Tin - **Market Performance**: The tin futures price has risen, and the LME inventory has decreased [103]. - **Investment Logic**: The tin price is affected by the macro - sentiment and the supply and demand situation. It is necessary to pay attention to the negative impact of the helium blockade on tin consumption [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price is expected to fluctuate widely; wait and see for arbitrage and options [105]. 3.5 Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The spot freight rate index has risen, and the market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation rumor [107]. - **Investment Logic**: The US - Iran negotiation rumor has disrupted the market expectation, and the oil price has fallen significantly. The shipping market is in the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation situation and fuel cost changes [108][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading and arbitrage [110]. Dry Bulk Freight - **Market Performance**: The spot freight rate index has shown different trends, with different ship - type sectors showing obvious differentiation [110]. - **Investment Logic**: The Middle - East situation has disrupted global shipments, and the high fuel price has put pressure on shipowners. Different ship - type markets are affected by different factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to the long - term impact of the conflict on the dry - bulk shipping chain [111][112]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report.

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of Guoxin Guozheng Futures on March 24, 2026, covering multiple futures varieties [1] Index Futures - On March 23, the three major A - share indexes weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.63% to 3813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to 13345.51 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.49% to 3235.22 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 23, closing at 4418.00, a decrease of 149.02 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 23, the weighted index of coke oscillated stronger, closing at 1867.8, a rise of 117.3 compared to the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 23, closing at 1323.6 yuan, a rise of 122.3 compared to the previous day [3] - Coke: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing willingness of traders slightly improves [4] - Coking coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1461 vehicles. The resumption of work in coal mines is good, the weekly production level continues to rise slightly, the spot auction transactions within the week are good, and the transaction price has increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the inventory at the production end has decreased slightly [4] - Policy: According to the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline, by 2030, China's comprehensive energy production capacity will reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal. Coal will play a long - term role in ensuring energy security and economic stability [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. Affected by the rise of US sugar on Friday and the increase in spot quotes in the morning, the futures price oscillated higher, and then oscillated lower due to the sharp decline in the stock market. At night, it oscillated lower due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [5] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premixed powder were 830,000 tons and 592,000 tons respectively, an increase of 75,000 tons and 266,000 tons year - on - year. The total import volume was 1.422 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons or 31% year - on - year [7] Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, the Shanghai Rubber oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. At night, it oscillated and rose slightly due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [7] - In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased 1.2% year - on - year to 14.03 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the import of truck and bus tires decreased 4.1% year - on - year and 3.4% month - on - month to 4.72 million [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on March 23, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1164.5 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.34%. As of the week of March 19, the US soybean export inspection was 1,101,730 tons, in line with market expectations. The export inspection volume to China was 664,967 tons, accounting for 60.36% of the total inspection volume. As of last Thursday, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 68%, behind 80% of the same period last year [7] - In the domestic market on March 23, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 3007 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.73%. With the relaxation of the inspection of weeds and pests on imported Brazilian soybeans in China, it is expected that many soybeans stranded at ports will complete customs clearance one after another. After the soybean inventory of oil mills is replenished, the soybean meal production will remain high, and the tight supply situation of soybean meal will be alleviated [7] Live Pigs - On March 21, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The slaughter plan of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month, the slaughter rhythm accelerated significantly, the market supply was sufficient, and the sales were active. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was loose. On the demand side, it is in the seasonal off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Although frozen product segmentation warehousing and some secondary fattening have formed a certain bottom - support, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of strong supply and weak demand as a whole [7] Palm Oil - On March 23, benefiting from the rise of crude oil prices over the weekend, the palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated stronger. The main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9960, the lowest price was 9650, and the closing price was 9942, a rise of 2.31% compared to the previous trading day [8] - As of March 20, 2026 (the 12th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 808,200 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons or 4.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 419,900 tons or 108.14% compared to 388,300 tons of the same period last year [8] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 94,510, reached a high of 94,740, a low of 91,500, and closed at 92,100, with a settlement price of 92,870. The trading volume was 215,827 lots, and the open interest was 204,413 lots. Macro - suppression: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar suppress commodities. The fundamentals are weak: High smelting operation rate, increased imports, and rising bonded - area inventory; the demand in the "Golden March" is lower than expected, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper is 93,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan per ton; the premium to CU2605 is 120 - 160 yuan per ton [8] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15,316 yuan per ton at night on March 23. The cotton inventory decreased by 16 lots compared to the previous trading day. Entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream textile enterprises purchase as they use [8] Iron Ore - On March 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 819 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the demand for molten iron from steel mills' resumption of production increased, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - On March 23, the main contract of asphalt 2606 oscillated and rose, with a rise of 4.27% and a closing price of 4661 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, the inventory increased slightly, the downstream demand has not started, the refinery's shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825 on March 23, with a low of 819, a high of 832, and a closing price of 822, with an increase of 702 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8][9] Steel - On March 23, rb2605 closed at 3154 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3330 yuan per ton. The military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on March 23 entered the 24th day, and the transportation interruption in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and high oil prices will last longer. On the one hand, the energy substitution effect is strengthened, the shipping cost rises, and the prices of black - series raw fuels are pushed up. On the other hand, the global inflation expectation heats up, the liquidity tightens, the risk - aversion sentiment spreads, and the global economic growth is impacted. In the short term, driven by high costs, steel prices may oscillate stronger [9] Alumina - On March 23, ao2605 closed at 3093 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the new production capacity is being put into operation at an accelerated pace. The 1.2 million - ton project of Guangxi Long'an Hetai will be put into trial production in April, and another new production capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of March. Coupled with the high arrival volume of imported alumina from March to April (about 250,000 tons per month on average), the subsequent supply pressure is becoming increasingly prominent, which will effectively suppress the upward space of prices. On the demand side, the consumption improvement space is limited, and the spot trading atmosphere is average. Although the slight recovery of downstream consumption and the firmness of the spot provide a bottom support for alumina, the commissioning of new projects in many places and the increase in raw material arrivals have established the expectation of loose supply [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 23, al2605 closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. On the macro - level, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The US threatens to expand attacks on Iran's power generation facilities, and Iran responds firmly. The inflation risk caused by geopolitics intensifies, further leading to a collapse in demand and a shrinkage in investment. The market sentiment of trading recession remains. The precious metals and non - ferrous metal markets continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of Guinea's bauxite export policy. On the supply side of the fundamentals, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point. On the demand side, the receiving situation continues to improve. The absolute price has dropped to an ideal range, and downstream and terminal buyers increase their purchases at low prices, which continues to strengthen the support for the spot [10]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货23440，基差-115，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨35619吨至452044吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，中东带动有色集体下行，关注中东 事件 近期利多利空分析 利多： 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The LLDPE and PP主力 contracts have strong disk performance, the Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Trump postponed the ultimatum to attack Iranian power plants, causing a sharp decline in external crude oil prices at night. In terms of supply and demand, the spring plowing has started, and the demand for mulch film is good, but high - priced raw materials have led to a wait - and - see attitude among enterprises for inventory replenishment. The packaging film is mainly based on rigid demand due to price increases, and the start - up rate and orders of the pipe industry are both low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8850 (+550), and the fundamentals are overall bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 673, and the premium/discount ratio is - 7.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.3 million tons (- 0.2), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract has a strong disk performance. The Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that LLDPE will show a volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil [6] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Trump postponed the ultimatum to attack Iranian power plants, causing a sharp decline in external crude oil prices at night. In terms of supply and demand, multiple PDH units were shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises have low production profit and low willingness to start production. The start - up rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 9350 (+600), and the fundamentals are overall bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 443, and the premium/discount ratio is - 4.5%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.6 million tons (- 6.1), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract has a strong disk performance. The Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil [8] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors and international policy games [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data | Product | Spot Delivery Price (Change) | Main Contract Price (Change) | Basis (Change) | Warehouse Receipt (Change) | Comprehensive Factory Inventory (Change) | Social Inventory (Change) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | LLDPE | 8850 (+550) | 05 contract: 9523 (+705) | - 673 (- 155) | 6371 (- 30) | 62.3 (0.0) | 61.9 (0.0) | | PP | 9350 (+600) | 05 contract: 9793 (+774) | - 443 (- 174) | 15927 (- 124) | 59.6 (0.0) | 30.7 (0.0) | [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an increasing trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E will increase by 20.5% compared with 2024 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E will increase by 11.0% compared with 2024 [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is relatively neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively neutral, and the import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production reduction season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,850, with a basis of 110, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,756, with a basis of 186, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil applies, with slightly bearish sentiment but reduced supply pressure in the production reduction season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,420, with a basis of 470, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is relatively high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply - Related - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Mentioned but no specific data analysis. [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [7][8] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [11][12] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [17][18] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [19][20] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2019. [23][24] Demand - Related - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [15][16]