1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - Short - term PX supply is stable, but downstream PTA device maintenance increases in August and terminal demand lacks improvement, so PX trends follow macro - sentiment and oil prices. Strategies include being cautiously bearish on PX09 around 7000 and expanding the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. - PTA load is around 80%, and its supply - demand in August is better than expected but still weak in the future. It is recommended to be bearish on TA above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand the PTA disk processing fee at low levels [2]. - In August, ethylene glycol supply - demand is near balance, with supply turning loose and demand weak. Strategies are to wait and see on EG99 unilaterally and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short - term short - fiber supply - demand is weak, and its price follows raw materials. The PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, but demand is average, and supply is high. The absolute price follows the cost end. PR is the same as PTA unilaterally, and the main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties. Short - term trading focuses on geopolitical risks, and the disk fluctuates along the upper margin of the range. It is recommended to use short - term band strategies, with resistance levels for WTI at [69, 70], Brent at [72, 73], and SC at [525, 535]. Options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - In the third quarter, pure benzene supply - demand improves slightly, but new device production limits inventory reduction. Its price follows market sentiment. The main - contract BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene unilaterally [10]. - Styrene supply - demand is expected to be weak, and port inventory increases. Its price is under pressure, and EBO9 should be operated with a rolling bearish strategy [10]. Methanol Industry - Inland methanol maintenance is expected to peak in early August, with high production, port inventory accumulation, and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to expand the MTO09 profit at low levels [30][31]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, PP maintenance decreases, and PE supply pressure increases. Demand is low in July, but there is potential for restocking. Strategies include being bearish on PP unilaterally (7200 - 7300) and holding LP01 [33]. Urea Industry - The urea disk rebounds slightly, but the core contradiction remains. Supply is high, and export policies restrict demand, leading to inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the start of autumn fertilizers and the resumption of previously - shut - down devices [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - The caustic soda disk is strong, and the spot price is stable. Supply increases, and inventory may rise. It is recommended to be cautious due to macro - disturbances [46]. - The PVC disk sentiment recovers slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and domestic demand is weak, but export expectations are good. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [46]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On July 29, most polyester product prices and cash flows changed slightly. For example, POY150/48 price was 6720 yuan/ton, up 0.1% from the previous day [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, Chinese PX, and PTA开工率 decreased slightly, while MEG综合开工率 and coal - made MEG开工率 increased [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 30, Brent crude oil rose 3.53% to 72.51 dollars/barrel, while WTI slightly decreased. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB increased slightly, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil decreased slightly. Some product oil spreads also changed significantly [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, most pure benzene and styrene - related prices increased slightly. For example, CFR China pure benzene rose 0.9% to 758 dollars/ton [10]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased slightly, while styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased. Some开工率 of related industries changed slightly [10]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, MA2601 and MA2509 prices increased, and the MA91 spread and太仓基差 changed [30]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased. Some upstream and downstream开工率 changed slightly [30]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices increased slightly. Some spreads and基差 changed [33]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and some PE and PP装置开工率 and下游加权开工率 changed slightly [33]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, most urea futures and spot prices decreased slightly. Some spreads and基差 also changed [35][39]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production,开工率, and some inventory data changed. The market is affected by export policies and supply - demand relationships [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, some PVC and caustic soda prices changed. For example, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 1.2% [43]. - **Supply and Demand**: Chlor - alkali开工率, industry profit, downstream开工率, and inventory data changed. The market has different trends for PVC and caustic soda [44][45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion on the positive side, while weak demand is a negative factor [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote stable growth in key industries including the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film showing slight improvement. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7400 (+30), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 15, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract has been fluctuating recently. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with the off - season of agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that the PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policy promotion are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall, the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7150 (-0), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 10, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract has been fluctuating recently. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that the PP will fluctuate today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policy promotion are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 7400 (+30), the 09 contract price is 7385 (+50), the basis is 15 (-20), the warehouse receipt is 5816 (0), and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons [9]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 7150 (0), the 09 contract price is 7160 (+30), the basis is - 10 (-30), the warehouse receipt is 12895 (+200), and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. For example, the production capacity growth rate in 2020 was 17.8%, and the consumption growth rate in 2019 was 14.3% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend with fluctuations. For example, the production capacity growth rate in 2020 was 15.5%, and the consumption growth rate in 2020 was 17.9% [16].

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated July 30, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (urea, industrial silicon), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [4] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601 opened at 7420 yuan/ton, closed at 7438 yuan/ton, with a high of 7446 yuan/ton, a low of 7408 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan/ton (0.20%), a position of 162,615, and a position change of 4769 [5] - Plastic 2605 opened at 7396 yuan/ton, closed at 7425 yuan/ton, with a high of 7432 yuan/ton, a low of 7396 yuan/ton, a rise of 9 yuan/ton (0.12%), a position of 7457, and a position change of 121 [5] - Plastic 2509 opened at 7341 yuan/ton, closed at 7385 yuan/ton, with a high of 7396 yuan/ton, a low of 7341 yuan/ton, a rise of 18 yuan/ton (0.24%), a position of 343,620, and a position change of -2781 [5] - PP2601 opened at 7140 yuan/ton, closed at 7166 yuan/ton, with a high of 7172 yuan/ton, a low of 7140 yuan/ton, a rise of 11 yuan/ton (0.15%), a position of 180,054, and a position change of 14,101 [5] - PP2605 opened at 7148 yuan/ton, closed at 7158 yuan/ton, with a high of 7163 yuan/ton, a low of 7138 yuan/ton, a rise of 0 yuan/ton (0.00%), a position of 9836, and a position change of 255 [5] - PP2509 opened at 7139 yuan/ton, closed at 7160 yuan/ton, with a high of 7165 yuan/ton, a low of 7130 yuan/ton, a rise of 13 yuan/ton (0.18%), a position of 308,754, and a position change of -17,048 [5] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - L2509 opened lower, fluctuated upwards during the session, and closed at 7385 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.24%), with a trading volume of 240,000 lots and a position decrease of 2781 to 343,620 lots [6] - The PP main contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.18%), with a position decrease of 17,048 lots to 308,800 lots [6] - The futures market opened lower and fluctuated higher, while the spot market trading atmosphere was average. Traders' quotes had narrow fluctuations, and most delivery prices at the end of the month were stable. Downstream buyers replenished stocks on a need - to - basis [6] - The supply - demand pattern has not improved. The supply side shows an increasing trend as the planned maintenance capacity decreases and some previous units restart. The Ningbo Daxie Phase II project is planned to be put into production [6] - On the consumption side, the demand for agricultural films is at a seasonal low. The operating rates of pipes and plastic weaving are stable. Orders in the daily chemical and food sectors have slightly improved, but the production order days have extended, and downstream buyers have limited ability to accept high prices, leading to an increase in commercial inventories [6] - After the short - term market sentiment is digested, the market will face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of specific plans for stable growth [6] Group 5: Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (3.70%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 740,000 tons [7] - PE market prices had narrow fluctuations. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7180 - 7420 yuan/ton, in East China were 7270 - 7550 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7400 - 7650 yuan/ton [7] - The price of the Shandong propylene market rose slightly, closing at 6190 - 6250 yuan/ton as of 12:00, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The rebound of international oil prices was positive for market sentiment. Enterprises' inventories were controllable, and their quotes mainly increased. Downstream buyers followed up as needed, and the actual transaction prices rose slightly [7] - The PP market was narrowly sorted. In the morning, the mainstream quotes for drawn PP in North China were 7000 - 7120 yuan/ton, in East China were 7070 - 7170 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. The short - term target price for WTI is $70.4 per barrel, suggesting short - term long positions with profit - taking on dips and left - hand side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. The demand side shows a decline in MTO profits, and the market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, facing callback pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Regarding urea, the domestic production continues to decline, and the cost - side support is gradually strengthening. The demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. The overall supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [5]. - For rubber, after a significant correction, NR and RU are slightly fluctuating. The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [7]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. Although it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector, there is a risk of a significant decline when the sentiment fades [9]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support, with different views from bulls and bears [11][13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, macro - expectations will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July [16]. - For PX, the load remains high, and the downstream PTA maintenance season is over. With low inventory and improved polyester and terminal operations, there is a short - term opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are starting, and the downstream production has recovered but remains at a low level. The port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the valuation may decline in the short term although it is currently strong due to anti - involution sentiment [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.27, or 3.39%, to $69.25; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.36, or 3.35%, to $72.76; INE main crude oil futures rose 4 yuan, or 0.76%, to 531 yuan [2]. - **Inventory Data**: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 6.87 million barrels, a 17.29% month - on - month decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 2.45 million barrels, an 11.98% month - on - month increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the demand side shows a decline in MTO profits and a continuation of the off - season for traditional demand [3]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 1744 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 16 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production continues to decline, the cost - side support is strengthening, the demand for compound fertilizers is slowly recovering, and exports are an important demand increment [5]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: NR and RU slightly fluctuated after a significant correction [7]. - **Supply Concerns**: The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5020 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 172 (- 103) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 124 (+ 4) yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall production rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease; the downstream production rate is 41.9%, and the factory inventory is 35.7 (- 1) tons, while the social inventory is 68.3 (+ 2.6) tons [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period. The supply side shows an increase in production, and the demand side shows an increase in the overall operating rate of three S products [11][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7385 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan weakening [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production rate is 80.31%, a 0.05% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.64 tons to 50.29 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 5.98 tons. The downstream average production rate is 38.42%, a 0.09% month - on - month decrease [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7165 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 5 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan weakening [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production rate is 78.44%, a 1.11% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 1.48 tons to 58.06 tons, the trader inventory increased by 1.43 tons to 16.66 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.41 tons to 6.72 tons. The downstream average production rate is 48.45%, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [16]. PX - **Market Performance**: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6942 yuan, the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 857 dollars, the basis was 122 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+ 18) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The Chinese load is 79.9%, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease; the Asian load is 72.9%, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease. There are changes in domestic and overseas device operations, and the PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged [18]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, the East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4830 yuan, the basis was - 5 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 6 (+ 4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 18 was 218.9 tons, a 1.7 - ton increase [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4510 yuan, the basis was 62 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 25 (+ 3) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side production rate is 68.4%, a 2.2% month - on - month increase. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The port inventory is 52.1 tons, a 1.2 - ton decrease [21].

Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated July 29, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, due to cost support, macro - policy push, but weak demand, the market is expected to oscillate today [4][6] - For PP, with cost support and macro - policy push, yet weak demand, it is also expected to show an oscillating trend today [7][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a stable - growth plan. The downstream demand is weak, and the current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7370 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, considered neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), a bearish factor [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy push; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [6] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI and Caixin PMI showed certain trends. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high temperature and heavy rain. The current PP delivery spot price is 7150 (-50), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 20, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), a bearish factor [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, it is expected to oscillate today [7] - **Factors**: Bullish factors are cost support and macro - policy push; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [8] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7370 (+0), the 09 - contract price is 7335 (-121), the basis is 35, and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4) [4][9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7150 (-50), the 09 - contract price is 7130 (-91), the basis is 20, and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5) [7][9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. showed different trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. changed over time. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 [16]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Futures markets for plastics and PP showed declines, with market sentiment weakening. The supply - demand pattern remained unimproved, with supply increasing and demand not keeping up. After short - term market sentiment digestion, the market is expected to face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the introduction of specific plans for stable growth [6] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The plastics and PP futures contracts all closed lower. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7400 yuan/ton, down 1.12%; PP2601 closed at 7136 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The trading volume of plastic 2509 was 389,000 lots, and its open interest decreased by 20,147 to 346,401 lots. The open interest of PP decreased by 29,838 to 325,800 lots [5][6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is on the rise as planned maintenance capacity decreases, some previous units are restarted, and new projects like Ningbo Daxie Phase II are planned for production. Demand is weak, with agricultural film demand at a seasonal low, stable开工 in pipes and plastic weaving, slightly improved orders in daily chemicals and food, but longer production order days and low downstream acceptance of high - priced products, leading to inventory accumulation [6] 4.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On July 28, 2025, the inventory of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.96%) from the previous working day, compared with 710,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - **Market Prices**: PE market prices fluctuated slightly. LLDPE prices in North China were 7230 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China 7300 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China 7400 - 7650 yuan/ton. Shandong propylene market prices dropped 45 yuan/ton to 6170 - 6220 yuan/ton. PP market prices fell 20 - 50 yuan/ton, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7] 4.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [10][12][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report Core Views - The pure benzene market has limited self - driving factors due to high port inventory and poor price transmission to downstream sectors, and its short - term trend fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. The styrene market also has a weak supply - demand outlook and increasing port inventory, with limited rebound space under the influence of market sentiment [24]. - The PX market is supported by domestic macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but considering cost and inventory factors, short - term short - selling strategies can be considered. The PTA market may see short - term improvement but has a weak medium - term outlook. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be near balance in August [28][29]. - The methanol market has a strong inventory build - up expectation in August, and with low MTO profits and weak downstream demand, but the short - term influence of the macro - environment is significant, and MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [32]. - The caustic soda market may see stable prices in the short - term, and the PVC market has a supply - exceeding - demand situation, but both are strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [42]. - The polyolefin market is currently strengthened by policies and cost factors, but the real supply - demand situation is weak. In August, there is an increased inventory build - up pressure, and the PP can be considered for short - selling [46]. - The crude oil market is in a range - bound state due to the balance between supply - expansion expectations and macro - sentiment. Short - term trading can follow a band - trading strategy [49]. - The urea market is in a supply - exceeding - demand situation, with the futures market under pressure. It will remain in a range - bound state until there is a substantial improvement in demand [54]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; WTI crude (September) was at $65.16/barrel, down $0.87 (-1.3%); CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China pure benzene increased $14 (1.9%) to $765/ton [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, styrene East - China spot was at 7580 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; EB futures 2508 was at 7403 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan (1.0%); EB cash - flow (non - integrated) increased 34 yuan (19.0%) to 215 yuan/ton [22]. - **Downstream Cash - flows**: On July 25, phenol cash - flow was - 709 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan (8.4%) from July 24; aniline cash - flow decreased 104 yuan (-517.1%) to 84 yuan/ton [23]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 21, pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.10 million tons, up 0.70 million tons (4.3%) from July 14; the domestic pure benzene utilization rate was 76.6%, down 1.5% (-1.9%) from July 17 [24]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China PX increased $18 (2.1%) to $874/ton [28]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, PTA East - China spot price was 4895 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; TA futures 2509 was at 4936 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan (1.8%); PTA spot processing fee decreased 19 yuan (-9.5%) to 183 yuan/ton [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MEG East - China spot price was 4582 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan (1.1%) from July 24; EG futures 2509 was at 4545 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (1.3%); MEG import profit increased 7 yuan (-9.6%) to - 60 yuan/ton [28]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MA2601 closed at 2587 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (2.01%) from July 22; the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 438 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (2.94%) [32]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, methanol enterprise inventory was 33.983%, down 1.3% (-3.55%) from the previous value; the upstream domestic enterprise utilization rate was 70.37%, down 2.3% (-3.16%) from the previous value [32]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 24; East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 5160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan (1.4%) [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of July 18, the caustic soda industry utilization rate was 86.3%, up 1.1% (1.3%) from July 11; the PVC total utilization rate was 75.0%, down 0.1% (-0.1%) [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, liquid caustic soda's East - China factory inventory was 21.3, up 2.6 (13.8%) from July 10; PVC's total social inventory was 41.1 million tons, up 1.8 million tons (4.7%) [42]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, L2601 closed at 7504 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan (0.91%) from July 24; the price of East - China LDPE was 9475 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.26%) [46]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, PE enterprise inventory was 49.3, up 5.47 (12.48%) from the previous value; the PE device utilization rate was 77.8%, down 1.67% (-2.10%) from the previous value [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, Brent was at $68.25/barrel, up $0.02 (0.16%) from July 25; WTI was at $65.25/barrel, up $0.09 (0.14%); the Brent - WTI spread was $3.30, up $0.02 (0.61%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, NYM RBOB was 209.73 cents/gallon, up 0.03 cents (0.01%) from July 25; ICE Gasoil was $705.00/ton, down $10.25 (-1.43%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: On July 28, the US gasoline cracking spread was $22.84/barrel, down $1.01 (-4.23%) from July 25; the European diesel cracking spread was $29.73/barrel, down $3.17 (-9.64%) [49]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1807, up 11 (0.61%) from July 24; the spread between the 01 contract and the 05 contract was - 15, down 7 (-87.50%) [53]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, the domestic urea daily output was 19.27, up 0.24 (1.26%) from July 24; the domestic urea plant - level inventory was 85.88, down 3.67 (-4.10%) from the previous week's value [53][55].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the chemical industry, particularly in specific sectors such as bottle-grade PET and sucralose, highlighting potential for profit recovery under the "anti-involution" policy [2][3][5]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing significant price declines, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% as of June, marking the lowest since August 2023 [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for "anti-involution" measures to enhance profitability across various chemical sub-industries, driven by increased R&D investment and a focus on high-quality development [1][21]. - The supply-side adjustments in multiple chemical sub-industries are expected to optimize the industry structure, with specific sectors like polyester filament and MDI showing promising demand trends [2][3]. Summary by Sections PPI and Industry Trends - The PPI for chemical raw materials and products has seen significant declines, necessitating "anti-involution" strategies to stabilize the industry [1][9]. - The ongoing construction projects in the chemical sector are projected to reach a total investment of 388.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 12.26% year-on-year increase [15]. Sub-Industry Analysis - **Polyester Filament**: The supply growth is expected to slow down due to "anti-involution" policies, which may improve profitability [2][34]. - **PC Industry**: The domestic PC industry is witnessing a shift towards import substitution, with limited new capacity expected in 2025 [3][45]. - **MDI**: The MDI sector is benefiting from strong domestic and international demand, with prices expected to remain favorable [4][55]. - **Bottle-grade PET**: This sector is crucial for beverage packaging, with a significant portion of production dedicated to food and drink applications [5][71]. - **Silicone**: The industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-demand balances improve [6][24]. - **Titanium Dioxide**: The industry is experiencing a slowdown in new capacity due to policy guidance and profit pressures [6][7]. - **Sucralose**: The demand is growing strongly, with new applications emerging [8][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with substantial progress in "anti-involution," such as the bottle-grade PET industry, recommending Wan Kai New Materials as a key investment target [3][90]. - For the sucralose sector, Jin He Industrial is highlighted as a leading company to watch [3][90].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Olefins: ★★☆ (suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish or bearish bias, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by macro - policies, and different sectors show different trends and influencing factors. Some sectors are driven by policies, while others are restricted by supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures rose on the day, with macro - positives still boosting the market. The restart of propylene plants and downstream start - up rhythms are in a game, with increased propylene supply weakening the fundamentals and suppressing price rebounds. The market may remain weak in the short term [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to rise. For polyethylene, although macro - policies are positive, demand is weak and domestic supply is abundant. For polypropylene, after the sale of low - price resources, the price center has risen, but short - term demand is affected by the off - season, and the short - term increase may be limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene has strengthened significantly due to the rebound of oil prices and domestic commodity sentiment and policies. The weekly output has declined, and the expectation of hydrogenated benzene is strong. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the mid - to - late third quarter, but it will face pressure again in the fourth quarter. Band operation of monthly spreads is recommended [3] - Styrene futures rose, hitting the half - year line. The macro - aspect continues to boost the market. Downstream buyers operate according to the market, mainly digesting existing raw materials, and spot procurement is on - demand, with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose significantly, driven by oil prices, market sentiment, and policies. PX has limited fundamental drivers. The inventory pressure of filaments has eased, and the drag on upstream raw materials is expected to weaken. PTA processing margins are low and have room for repair, waiting for the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol continued to rise with increased positions, boosted by the positive sentiment in the coal market and domestic policies. Downstream demand is stable on a weekly basis, domestic supply has increased slightly, and ports have slightly accumulated inventory. Overseas device operation is unstable, which may disrupt the market [4] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices rebounded with raw materials. Short - term demand for short fiber is still in the off - season, but new capacity is limited, and the recovery of future demand is expected to boost the industry. For bottle chips, the load continues to decline, and price repair is limited under low - start conditions [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures continued to rise, mainly affected by relevant policies. The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and ports are expected to see unexpected destocking this week. Domestic main - producing area enterprises are starting autumn maintenance, but some enterprises may resume work early or postpone maintenance due to good profits. Downstream procurement is for rigid demand, and enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. The peak season of agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the current operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is still low. Domestic downstream demand is weak. Export goods are being shipped to ports, and production enterprises are continuously destocking, but the destocking rate has slowed down. The market supply remains sufficient, and with policy support, the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices were pushed up by cost due to the fermentation of anti - involution policies, and the futures price was strong. The demand of downstream product enterprises is in the off - season, and social inventory has been accumulating since July. Domestic demand is weak, and export deliveries have decreased. Supply is expected to increase next week. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with cost; in the long term, if the elimination of backward production capacity does not meet expectations, the price may not rise continuously [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Upstream salt has issued an anti - involution document, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect the raw salt industry and drive up the price of caustic soda raw materials. Downstream buyers resist high prices, supply has increased, and inventory has increased month - on - month. Alumina demand provides some support, but non - aluminum downstream demand is average. The short - term market is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the elimination of backward production capacity [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to be strong due to the temporary shutdown of Haitian's device and positive sentiment. Inventory continued to decline, and the spot price increased. The supply is under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry is suffering large losses and is reducing production due to anti - involution policies. In the short term, the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to whether actual policies will be introduced for the small amount of backward production capacity [7] - Glass prices continued to rise, with a 50 - yuan increase in Shahe today. Middle - stream buyers are stocking up, and the industry is in a destocking mode. Industry profits have slightly recovered, and production capacity has fluctuated slightly. Processing orders are weak. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash at low levels can be considered [7]