Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and was established on October 29, 2001. The company was listed on January 16, 2008. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of copper pipes, copper rods, copper fittings, copper-aluminum composite conductors, and aluminum profiles [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Hailiang Co. achieved a revenue of 44.534 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 711 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.03% [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 2.265 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 844 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - On September 15, Hailiang Co.'s stock price decreased by 2.04%, trading at 12.48 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 27.435 billion yuan. The stock has increased by 17.99% year-to-date, with a 3.48% rise over the last five trading days, a 6.02% decline over the last 20 days, and a 28.97% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) once this year, with the most recent appearance on August 4 [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Hailiang Co. was 16,700, a decrease of 16.55% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 20.01% to 115,906 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 23.7841 million shares, an increase of 2.3802 million shares from the previous period. Southern CSI 500 ETF is a new entrant in the top ten, holding 17.804 million shares [3].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the metal sector, particularly focusing on gold, silver, copper, tungsten, rare earths, and steel industries [1][3][5][6][7][8][10][12][14]. Key Points and Arguments Gold and Silver Market - **Gold Performance**: 中金黄金 (China National Gold) reported Q2 earnings exceeding expectations, with a quarterly profit of 1.6 to 1.7 billion yuan, showing over 60-70% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth. The company's profitability in the gold mining sector has significantly improved, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3][4]. - **Silver Market Dynamics**: Silver prices have surged due to its proposed inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and tariff concerns, leading to increased demand in the U.S. market. 兴业银锡 (Xingye Silver Tin) is expected to become the largest silver and tin producer in China, with silver production projected to rise from 300 tons this year to over 900 tons by 2028 [1][4]. Copper and Tin Supply Issues - **Copper Supply Constraints**: The copper market is facing challenges due to an accident at Freeport's Indonesian mine and production cuts at Japanese smelters, leading to a projected negative growth in copper supply this year. Recommended companies include 金诚信 (Jinchengxin) and 洛阳钼业 (Luoyang Molybdenum), which are expected to benefit from increased copper production and rising prices of molybdenum and tungsten [5][6]. - **Tin Market**: The tin supply has also been disrupted, with actual increases falling short of expectations. The overall supply growth for tin is minimal, indicating potential upward price elasticity in the future [5]. Tungsten and Rare Earths - **Tungsten Market**: The tungsten market is experiencing tight supply, leading to price increases. 厦门钨业 (Xiamen Tungsten) is highlighted as a leading company with a continuous increase in tungsten concentrate supply [6]. - **Rare Earths Demand**: The demand for rare earths and magnetic materials is recovering, with expectations for continued price increases. Companies like 北方稀土 (Northern Rare Earth) and 包钢氧化钕 (Baogang Neodymium Oxide) are noted for their strong price increase potential [1][6]. Steel Industry Insights - **Steel Market Performance**: The steel sector is benefiting from anti-competitive policies and improved fundamentals, with Q1 and Q2 earnings showing positive trends. Major companies like 华菱钢铁 (Hualing Steel), 首钢股份 (Shougang), and 宝钢股份 (Baosteel) are highlighted for their low price-to-book ratios, indicating high value [2][7][8][10][11]. - **Future Price Trends**: Steel prices are expected to rebound as supply recovers and demand improves, particularly in the construction sector. The anticipated decrease in raw material costs in Q4 could further enhance profitability for steel companies [9][10]. Cobalt Market Developments - **Cobalt Price Surge**: Cobalt prices have risen significantly due to resource concentration and uncertainties in the Democratic Republic of Congo's policies. Companies like 华友钴业 (Huayou Cobalt) and 腾远钴业 (Tengyuan Cobalt) are positioned to benefit from these trends [14][19]. - **Cobalt Supply Constraints**: The production of cobalt salts has reached a five-year low, indicating a tight supply situation. The strategic importance of cobalt is underscored by the U.S. initiating a cobalt reserve plan [15][17]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metal sector is optimistic, driven by macroeconomic factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, which are expected to bolster demand for precious metals and industrial metals alike [1][3][12]. - The focus on strategic resources and their valuation is likely to have long-term implications for the global supply-demand dynamics in the metal industry [18].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from the global macro cycle, with U.S. interest rate cuts and Trump-era policies releasing liquidity, driving resource prices into an upward cycle [1][2] - The anticipated interest rate cuts in Q4 2025 and the increase in the U.S. debt ceiling are expected to have significant impacts on the sector [1][2] Key Insights on Gold Stocks - Gold stocks have shown high certainty in the current market, experiencing a 20% pullback despite gold price fluctuations [4] - Historical data indicates that prior to price increases, gold stocks typically see a rise in both EPS and PE [4] - The average gold price in 2025 is projected to be significantly higher than in 2024, suggesting strong performance for companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [4] Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained, with actual new capacity in early 2025 expected to be around 500,000 to 600,000 tons, lower than the anticipated 1 million tons [5] - Global PMI recovery is expected to gradually restore demand for electrolytic aluminum, with price expectations increasing [5] - The sector's valuation is at historical lows, with mainstream stocks valued at less than 10 times earnings, indicating significant room for recovery [6] Copper Sector Outlook - The copper sector presents investment opportunities driven by financial and industrial attributes, with expectations of price increases due to U.S. interest rate cuts and improved demand from China [7][8] - Supply disruptions from global mining events are contributing to a tightening supply situation, while demand is expected to grow due to macroeconomic factors [7][8] Tungsten Market Dynamics - The rise in tungsten prices is driven by supply contraction, export controls, and its strategic importance [3][9] - China's tungsten product exports have significantly decreased, leading to shortages in overseas markets [10] - The impact of export quotas on prices is critical, with expectations of a potential price increase if the second batch of quotas is reduced [12] Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Xiamen Tungsten, China Tungsten High-Tech, and Anyuan Coal Industry, which are seen as having investment potential in the current market environment [4][14]

Macro Insights - The financial data for August shows a stable performance, with expectations for credit demand to recover due to the release of favorable effects from long-term special bonds and accelerated fiscal spending [2] - The US CPI for August rose to +2.9% year-on-year, indicating a moderate inflation increase, which may open up space for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Industry Strategy - The market is expected to favor growth and balanced sectors, with high valuation sectors like electric equipment, communication, computing, electronics, automotive, and media being highlighted for potential investment [4] - The stock market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by reasonable valuations and new positive factors such as the potential start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [5] Credit and Bond Market - In August, new RMB loans increased by 0.59 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, indicating a month-on-month growth in both credit and social financing [9] - The issuance of credit bonds saw a significant increase, with 303 bonds issued totaling 372.67 billion yuan, a 123.89% increase from the previous period [10] Real Estate Market - In August, the transaction area of second-hand homes in first-tier cities showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while the average transaction price decreased by 0.3% [20] - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in the real estate market, recommending companies like China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [20] Company Research - Longfor Group is experiencing short-term sales weakness, with a forecasted net profit of 6.22 billion yuan for 2025, maintaining an "overweight" rating [21] - Yuexiu Property is performing better than the market average, with an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [22] - Ordos, a leader in the silicon iron industry, is expected to maintain stable profits despite a downward revision of net profit forecasts due to energy consumption policies [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with high-growth sectors being the preferred choice for investment [1][2] - Policy support is expected to strengthen with the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October, particularly in hard technology and new productivity sectors [1][2] - Recent increases in overseas AI industry capital expenditure are positively influencing market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - A total of 12 out of the 15 leading companies with the highest gains since June are linked to overseas expansion, particularly in the AI supply chain and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][3] - The market consensus has been strong since August, but the intensity of sector rotation has decreased to a new low since April of the previous year [2][3] - The focus should be on high-growth sectors such as solid-state batteries, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while also considering new consumption trends [1][2] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is characterized by a high degree of volatility, with a potential for a significant upward trend if new catalysts emerge [3][4] - The upcoming October meeting is anticipated to clarify the direction of the "14th Five-Year Plan," likely emphasizing technological innovation and new productivity [3][4] - The market is expected to see a shift towards cyclical trades as the economy transitions from service to manufacturing sectors [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][11] Core Views - The report highlights that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has led to an upward trend in copper and aluminum prices. Copper prices have increased by 1.22% in London, 1.15% in Shanghai, and 2.30% in New York. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Fed's rate cut decision and the demand during the peak season of September and October [4][6][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes significant macroeconomic information, including a substantial downward revision of the U.S. non-farm employment benchmark by 911,000 for 2025. Additionally, initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, and the U.S. CPI year-on-year rate for August met expectations at 2.9% [9][10]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the sector rising by 3.76% compared to the index's 1.52% increase. The report identifies the top-performing stocks and notes the overall positive trend in the sector [12][13]. 3. Valuation Changes - The report provides valuation metrics, indicating that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 24.96, with a change of 0.92. The PB for the sector is 2.98, reflecting a change of 0.10. The non-ferrous sector's PE is 112% of the overall A-share market [22][25]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown an increase, with London copper up 1.22% and Shanghai copper up 1.15%. The report notes a decrease in London copper inventory by 2.53% and an increase in Shanghai copper inventory by 14.91%. The report also discusses the profitability of copper smelting, which has worsened [27][39]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum prices have risen, with London aluminum increasing by 3.18% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.74%. The report highlights a decrease in alumina prices and an increase in aluminum smelting profits [39][40]. 6. Lithium - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium down 3.08% to 72,450 yuan/ton. The report suggests that the lithium market is entering a destocking phase due to seasonal demand [78][79]. 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with overseas MB cobalt rising by 1.25% to 16.15 USD/pound. The report notes the impact of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo on cobalt supply and prices [91][92].

Group 1: Copper - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and fundamentals, with a forecast range of 80,500-82,000 CNY/ton and 10,000-10,250 USD/ton [1] - The market sentiment is optimistic, but there is concern over high prices leading to weak transaction volumes [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Domestic aluminum prices have shown a slight increase, averaging 20,740 CNY, with a rise of 0.32% [1] - The market is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with stable supply and a slight recovery in demand [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high range, with an average around 20,800 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Lead - Lead prices continue to fluctuate within a range, with no significant changes in spot prices [2] - The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision [2] - If the expected 25 basis point rate cut occurs, it may boost sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector [2] Group 4: Zinc - The zinc market faces ongoing supply pressure, with weak demand during the peak season affecting prices [2] - There is a positive outlook for zinc prices in the short term, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and domestic policy responses [2] - The expected price range for zinc is between 22,000-22,800 CNY/ton [2] Group 5: Tin - Refined tin prices have experienced a decline, with a cumulative drop of 1,000 CNY/ton [2] - The market is influenced by weak labor market data and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Tin prices are anticipated to show a strong fluctuation, with a focus on a range of 265,000-280,000 CNY/ton [2] Group 6: Nickel - The average price of nickel is reported at 122,230 CNY/ton, down by 1,140 CNY or 0.92% [3] - Concerns over the resumption of Indonesian mines and weak macroeconomic data are pressuring prices [3] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels, with a forecast range of 118,000-123,000 CNY/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, the gold price is bullish due to the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. The weak employment data in the US in August strengthens the easing expectation. In the long - term, the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the de - dollarization trend, and geopolitical risks boost the currency attribute and safe - haven demand of gold. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures have exceeded 100 billion yuan, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3]. - **Copper**: In the short term, with a tight supply, the copper price faces obvious pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with the price expected to stand firm at 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors such as the weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price. Fundamentally, the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and the recovery of downstream demand in the peak season support the price. However, the late de - stocking node restricts the upward range of the aluminum price in the short term, and the SHFE aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore has a price advantage, and the overseas zinc ore supply is abundant. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. - **Nickel**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is also strong, and the stainless - steel market is in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index, rate - cut expectations, and the difficulty of stainless - steel exports [84]. - **Tin**: In the short term, the factors affecting the tin price are not obvious, and the technical level can be used for judgment. The price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there is an optimistic short - term expectation for the resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, the peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" still provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. - **Silicon**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty in price trends. Investors are advised to be cautious [120]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the initial jobless claims soared to 263,000, which strengthened the easing expectation. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures exceeded 100 billion yuan, with an increase of more than 17 billion yuan in a month [3]. Copper - **Price Forecast**: In the short term, the copper price has pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton and may be supported by the 20 - day moving average, with the expectation of reaching 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Southern Reserve, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,755 yuan/ton, 80,990 yuan/ton, 80,930 yuan/ton, and 81,080 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 1.06%, 1.01%, and 1.01% [22]. Aluminum - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price [37]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The aluminum - water ratio has increased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is recovering, mainly in the industrial profile sector led by photovoltaics. The possible termination of the tax - refund policy for some recycled aluminum enterprises may reduce the supply of recycled aluminum and support the consumption of primary aluminum [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side is in an oversupply state, with abundant overseas zinc ore supply and high zinc ore imports. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is volatile [84]. Tin - **Price Judgment**: In the short term, the technical level can be used to judge the tin price, and the price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Logic**: The peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. Silicon - **Industry Outlook**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure, and the polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty [120].

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced adjustments in September, reflecting a digestion of previous gains, while overall market sentiment remains positive [1] - Domestic "anti-involution" policies are gaining traction, leading to a recovery in resident risk appetite and a shift in capital allocation from deposit markets to capital markets [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is increasing, suggesting a continuation of global liquidity easing [1] Group 2 - Investment opportunities to focus on include technology stocks with high earnings visibility and acceptable valuations in the overseas computing power sector, such as optical modules, PCBs, and liquid cooling [1] - Resource stocks, including gold, copper, and aluminum, present investment opportunities due to the anticipated weakening of the dollar following the Fed's rate cut expectations [1] - Dividend stocks and innovative pharmaceuticals that have been stagnant since August are also seen as having potential opportunities after recent adjustments [1]