墨西哥财政部宣布采取措施加强墨西哥国家石油公司的财务状况。 ...

土耳其港务局：阿塞拜疆石油在土耳其Ceyhan枢纽的装货工作暂停。 ...

墨西哥政府计划发行70亿-100亿美元债务，从而支持国家石油公司PEMEX。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil inventories increased slightly. The EU imposed the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, reducing the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear talks with major European powers next week, and whether to resume nuclear talks with the US depends on the US attitude. The supply of Kurdish oil fields was affected by attacks, with about 200,000 barrels per day of production at risk of interruption. Globally, refinery profits strengthened week - on - week, and the product side remained firm. In China, refinery operations were volatile, and after the increase in June, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, with refinery profits weakening week - on - week, leaving limited room to boost operations further. In the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply supported the crude oil monthly structure, but the peak - season factors were relatively fully realized, and the recent monthly spreads were in a volatile pattern. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Price Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.14, Brent by $0.07, and Dubai by $0.15. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread decreased by $0.05, and the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by $0.07. Other price differentials also showed various changes [2]. - For domestic and other related products, SC decreased by 19.70, the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 3.00, and the Japanese naphtha - BRT spread decreased by 2.98, etc. [2] 2. Daily News - Traders are evaluating the real impact of the EU's latest sanctions on Russian oil supply, and international oil prices have limited fluctuations. The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia last Friday, including India's Nayara Energy. The Kremlin said it is immune to Western sanctions. Trump threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russian oil buyers if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days. The market doubts the effectiveness of the sanctions [2]. - Trump is seeking to impose a 15 - 20% minimum tariff on all EU goods [3]. - The EU sanctioned an Iranian oil tycoon for assisting Russian oil trade. Iran's foreign minister said Iran is willing to talk with the US but not directly for now [3]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day. The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91%. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07%. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [3][15]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. The output of gasoline decreased while that of diesel increased, the gasoline inventory increased while the diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries declined week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆, indicating short - term trend equilibrium and poor operability) [1] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Bullish (represented by ★☆☆, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The support of strong real - world factors for oil prices has weakened, and the market rating has been adjusted from bullish to neutral. The oil market may be under pressure and fluctuate, but it is expected to gain support again in August [1] - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia has increased the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, supporting the FU's resistance to decline. The LU follows the crude oil trend, and the decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] - The asphalt production of refineries in August is expected to decline compared to July. The demand recovery is delayed, but the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly, and the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] - The overseas LPG market is weak, but the domestic chemical demand is strong. The domestic LPG supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is running weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the support of strong real - world factors for oil prices weakened, and the market rating was adjusted from bullish to neutral. This week, the contango, spot premium, and gasoline cracking have further confirmed this judgment [1] - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.2%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 1.7%. The market is still in a state of inventory accumulation due to supply - demand surplus in the third quarter, although the amplitude may slow down [1] - There is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase on Brazil, the EU, Canada, and Mexico before August 1. The related negative risks are greater than the geopolitical risks of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Oil prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. As the final deadlines for the Iran nuclear and Russia - Ukraine negotiations approach at the end of August and early September, geopolitical games may intensify again in August, and the crude oil market is expected to gain support [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, SC has weakened significantly, and the fuel oil futures are under pressure, but FU is significantly resistant to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread continues to shrink [2] - After the EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia, the supply risk of high - sulfur resources has increased, supporting the FU's trend and making it resistant to decline among oil products [2] - The LU's unilateral trend follows the crude oil, but the fluctuation range is less than that of SC. The decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] Asphalt - Longzhong reported that the refinery production plan in August decreased significantly compared to July. Affected by typhoon and rainfall in the South, the demand recovery is slower than expected, and the rigid demand in the North is also weak [2] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has remained stable since July. The latest data shows that the refinery inventory has returned to the destocking state, the social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [2] - In the asphalt industry, state - owned enterprises mainly operate plants with a production period of more than 20 years, and the private enterprise production capacity accounts for only 3.6%, which has a limited marginal reduction effect on the industry's production capacity. Considering the low - inventory pattern of asphalt, the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market is generally weak. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a further decline in CP at the end of the month [2] - The domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, and the current profit margin remains at a good level this year, with strong short - term chemical demand [2] - The external supply of refineries has slightly decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, domestic LPG is expected to stabilize. The loose spot market strengthens the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is running weakly under the weakening support of crude oil [2]

最近这段时间，关于石油的话题，成为了新的焦点。为了向俄罗斯总统普京施压，美国总统特朗普改变打法，威胁如果在50天内无法达成俄乌和平协议，将 对俄罗斯征收100%关税，并对部分国家实施所谓"二级制裁"。 由于美俄贸易几乎中断，特朗普主要想打好"二级制裁"这张牌，意图惩罚俄罗斯石油买家，对这些国家的进口商品征收高达100%的关税。而美方也直接进 行了点名，称中国、印度和巴西是俄罗斯石油的主要买家，要求三国停止购买。 美国威胁惩罚购买俄罗斯石油的国家 除了不许购买俄罗斯石油，美方对中国发出了新的威胁，不能再购买伊朗石油。美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时透露，特朗普政府与中国的谈判进展顺 利，但是并不急于与中国达成贸易协议，因为他们更关心的是贸易协定的质量，而不是达成时间。 紧接着，贝森特说出了真实意图，特朗普政府希望将中俄关系和中伊关系加入到谈判中，试图通过谈判阻止中国购买俄罗斯和伊朗石油。贝森特称，中国是 受制裁的伊朗石油和俄罗斯石油的大买家，所以可以开始讨论这个问题。 贝森特放话不许中国购买伊朗石油 美方施压不许购买俄罗斯石油一事，几乎不可能成功，且不说中国，就连非常依赖美国市场的印度，都已经对美国的做法表达了不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump's announcement of potential 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian energy has raised significant international concern, particularly from India, which relies heavily on Russian oil imports [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The proposed 100% tariffs on Russian goods are unlikely to have a substantial direct impact on the Russian economy, as the total U.S.-Russia trade is only about $3.5 billion, with over 85% of U.S. imports from Russia consisting of fertilizers and inorganic chemicals [1]. - The real threat lies in the secondary sanctions targeting countries that buy Russian energy, which could impose tariffs as high as 100% or more [1][3]. Group 2: India's Response - India, as the third-largest oil consumer globally, imports 85% of its oil, with approximately 35% sourced from Russia. The Indian government emphasizes the importance of securing its energy needs and is wary of double standards in trade [3]. - Indian officials have indicated that they can diversify their oil imports, increasing the number of sourcing countries from 27 to 40, thus mitigating the impact of potential U.S. sanctions [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. tariff threats may inadvertently strengthen cooperation between China and India, as both countries face similar trade pressures from the U.S. [5]. - India's strategic autonomy is challenged by U.S. actions, leading to discussions about reviving trilateral cooperation with Russia and China [3][5]. Group 4: Criticism of U.S. Policy - Critics in the U.S. argue that secondary tariffs will not deter countries from purchasing Russian energy and may damage the U.S.'s reputation as a reliable trade partner [5][7]. - Research indicates that imposing such tariffs could result in significant economic losses for the U.S., potentially up to $30 trillion, and increase the likelihood of a recession [5][7]. Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The unilateral approach of the U.S. is seen as damaging to multilateral trade systems and could accelerate the shift towards a multipolar international order [7]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes highlight the complexities of global interdependence, suggesting that dialogue and cooperation are essential for resolving conflicts [7].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Jia Shi Hong Li Selected Mixed Initiation A (022495) reported a profit of 8.4585 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 7.49% and a fund size of 56.7366 million yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [4] Fund Performance - The fund's profit per weighted average share for the reporting period was 0.0883 yuan [4] - As of July 21, the unit net value was 1.112 yuan [4] Investment Strategy - The fund management maintains the view of a "dividend+" era, emphasizing that dividends remain a long-term effective fundamental factor, although performance among different dividend assets may vary [4] - Focus areas include traditional long-duration assets such as banks, public utilities, telecom operators, oil, and home appliances, while also incorporating some dividend growth assets like Hong Kong internet stocks and export chains [4] Market Outlook - The fund expects stable economic performance in the second half of the year, with a more balanced market style anticipated due to the strong performance of consumption and growth sectors in the first half [4] - The fund will closely monitor the fundamental changes in various dividend assets to identify higher-quality opportunities in specific sectors and will also optimize the portfolio performance through a contrarian approach [4] Top Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund include Jiangsu Bank, China Merchants Bank, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Chengdu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, New Energy Group, Guotou Power, and Chuan Investment Energy [5]

欧盟能源价格飙到别国好几倍，匈牙利彻底坐不住了！外长西雅尔多直接摊牌：欧盟硬要和俄罗斯能源"离婚"，结果自家老百姓遭殃，电价油价涨得离谱。 怎么办？匈牙利转头就拉上塞尔维亚和俄罗斯，商量建条新石油管道，最快2027年就能用上。 俄罗斯乐见其成。乌克兰方向输油管早停了，土耳其溪管道又不够用，新管道等于帮俄油撬开欧盟铁板一块的制裁墙。但欧盟牙都快咬碎了：明明提议匈牙 利走克罗地亚运非俄油，省钱又"合规"，偏被一口回绝。匈牙利直接搬出"能源主权"硬刚：政策是咱家内政，欧盟少管！ 这管道可不是临时起意。早在5月，匈塞两国就密谋好了——匈牙利境内砸3.25亿欧元修180公里，塞尔维亚段花1.57亿欧元，连起来直通俄罗斯原油。年输 油500万吨，专供塞尔维亚潘切沃炼油厂"续命"，顺便给匈牙利能源安全加道锁。为啥这么急？欧盟第18轮制裁刚落地，连俄罗斯油轮都禁了，可匈牙利总 理欧尔班算过账：三年硬跟风制裁，国库白白亏了200亿欧元！ 塞尔维亚更是一肚子苦水。想加入欧盟？可以！但别买俄罗斯油！可它唯一的炼油厂全靠俄油运转，原本走克罗地亚的路线又被掐断。克罗地亚趁机涨了5 倍过路费，气得匈牙利大骂"不靠谱"。如今匈塞抱团取暖， ...

据新华社报道，日前，美国总统特朗普放话：俄乌50天内不签和平协议，美国将祭出500%次级关税。 特朗普（资料图） 这一幕在白宫椭圆办公室上演时，北约秘书长吕特就站在旁边。镜头扫过，吕特点头附和：任何继续跟俄罗 斯做生意的国家，都可能被"二级制裁"砸中。话音落地，印度外交部发言人贾伊斯瓦尔隔海回怼：别搞双 标，保障印度能源安全才是头等大事。 特朗普的牌面看似凶狠，其实漏洞早已摆上台面。白宫官员私下向CNN解释，总统口中的"500%"只是国会草 案上限，能否落地取决于他与共和党议员的拉锯，而特朗普本人更担心能源价格反噬美国通胀。换句话说， 雷声大、雨点未必真砸得下来。但吕特接棒放狠话，却给了新德里一个绝佳的反击切口：欧洲自己还在买俄 罗斯LNG，凭什么让印度断油？芬兰智库CREA的账本写得明白，2022年以来欧盟一直是俄气最大买家，土耳 其更拿下俄油头把交椅。数字摆在那里，双标就成了靶子。 印度这次没再委婉。贾伊斯瓦尔在记者会直接把"重启中俄印三边机制"抛上台面。这不是一句外交辞令，而 是三张底牌：一是能源账本，印度38%的原油进口来自俄罗斯，中断意味着国内油价立刻失控；二是谈判筹 码，莫迪政府刚在农业议题上对美 ...