| 纯苯-苯乙烯日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月27日 | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | 品种 10月24日 | 10月23日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 65.94 布伦特原油(12月) | 65.99 | -0.05 | -0.1% | 美元/桶 | | WTI原油(12月) 61.50 | 61.79 | -0.29 | -0.5% | | | CFR日本石脑油 581 | 573 | 8 | 1.4% | | | 765 CFR东北亚乙烯 | 780 | -15 | -1.9% | | | CFR中国纯本 691 | 692 | -1 | -0.1% | 美元/吨 | | 纯苯-石脑油 110 | 119 | -9 | -7.5% | | | 184 巴图中旗口 | 207 | -23 | -11.1% | | | 纯苯(中石化华东挂牌价) 5450 | 5450 | 0 | 0.0% | | | 纯本华东 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" main goals were released, boosting market sentiment. The goals include significant achievements in high-quality development, increased self-reliance in technology, breakthroughs in deepening reforms, enhanced social civilization, improved quality of life, major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthened national security. By 2035, the aim is for China's economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength to significantly rise, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries. This suggests an average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, positively impacting current market sentiment and economic expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%. The October S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, better than the previous 52. The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential halt in balance sheet contraction in the coming months, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy and a relatively smooth path for easing [2] Group 3: Commodity Sector Analysis - The commodity market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black metal sector is under pressure from downstream demand expectations, while the non-ferrous sector is supported by long-term supply constraints and recent global easing expectations. The energy sector is viewed with a medium-term supply surplus outlook, as OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, caustic soda, and urea is noteworthy. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, while precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after significant fluctuations, awaiting new signals for movement [3]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/27 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/20 | 57.52 | 61.01 | 63.15 | - | 0.13 | -3.49 | -0.02 | 183.02 | 15.86 | 219.21 | 31.06 | | 2025/10/21 | 57.24 | 61.32 | 63.34 | -0.29 | 0.29 | -4.08 | -0.05 | 182.53 | 15.34 | 220.58 | 31.32 | | 2025/10/22 | 58.50 | 62.59 | 63.86 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The US September CPI data led to market expectations of Fed rate - cuts. The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but gold buying power remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [2]. - **Rebar**: The medium - long - term over - capacity in the steel industry may be alleviated, but short - term impact is limited. Rebar demand is improving but at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels. However, the profit contraction of steel mills and the end of the peak season limit demand. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and demand from downstream and intermediate sectors is strong. The coal price is strong, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: With increased demand due to lower temperatures and reduced slaughter pressure, the pig price may strengthen after adjustment. The futures price is expected to rebound at the bottom in the short - term [7]. - **Palm Oil**: As the traditional production - reduction season approaches in November, the futures price may recover. However, due to expected ample supply, the spot price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Soybeans**: Imported soybean spot market is firm, and domestic demand is strong. Bean 2 is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong [8]. - **Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Liquidity is loose, which supports the bond market. But with the stock market breaking through the previous range, the bond market operation is more difficult. It is expected to oscillate with a slightly bearish bias in the medium - term [9]. - **Silver**: US economic data in October is positive, which is bullish for silver. With a high probability of rate - cuts in October, the downside is limited. It is long - term bullish and short - term oscillating [9]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC production is expected to increase, while demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 4695 for the 01 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory is accumulating slightly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with resistance at 2300. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market is in a game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand bearish factors. A short - term low - level bullish approach is recommended [11]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected. Core CPI and service inflation slowed. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [1]. - The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but buying power remains strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1271 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.05 tons, down 3.93% week - on - week [2]. - Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 170.21 tons, up 0.09% week - on - week. The float glass market has stable start - up, rising inventory, and average trading [2]. Rebar - The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71%, up 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability is 47.62%, down 7.79 percentage points week - on - week. Daily average pig - iron output is 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 14423.59 tons, up 145.32 tons week - on - week. The daily average port clearance volume is 312.65 tons, down 3.07 tons [5]. - The number of ships at ports is 107, down 17. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels, but profit contraction affects demand [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 73.47%, down 0.77%. Daily coke production is 64.61 tons, down 0.68 tons [6]. - Coke inventory is 58.64 tons, up 1.35 tons. Coking coal inventory is 1029.70 tons, up 32.33 tons. Supply is tightening, and demand is strong [6]. Pigs - As of October 24, the average slaughter weight of pigs is 123.21 kg, down 0.22 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate is 35.3%, down 0.34% [7]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 279.65 yuan/head, up 67.28 yuan/head. The self - breeding profit is - 149.54 yuan/head, up 53.28 yuan/head [7]. Palm Oil - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 is 1283814 tons, down 0.4%. The futures price may recover in November, but spot price is under pressure [7]. Soybeans - In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is 236.74 tons, with a start - up rate of 65.13%. The 44th - week start - up rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. Liquidity is loose, but the bond market operation is difficult due to the stock market [9]. Silver - The US October manufacturing, service, and composite PMI are all better than expected. Economic data is positive for silver, and the downside is limited due to expected rate - cuts [9]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.57%, down 0.12% week - on - week [10]. - Social inventory is 103.52 tons, down 0.13% week - on - week. Domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate is 87.4%, down 2.13% [11]. - Port inventory is 151.22 tons, up 2.08 tons week - on - week. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [11]. Crude Oil - After the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Reliance Industries stops buying Russian oil. The market is in a game between short - term geopolitical and long - term supply - demand factors [11].

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $63.4 and $59.3 per barrel, respectively, with increases of $1.4 and $1.0 compared to the previous week [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production stands at 13.63 million barrels per day, showing a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day week-on-week [2] - Active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 2 to a total of 420, while active fracturing fleets rose by 3 to 175 [2] Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 410 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels. Changes from the previous week include decreases of 1.4 million barrels and 0.96 million barrels in total and commercial inventories, respectively, while strategic inventory increased by 0.82 million barrels and Cushing inventory decreased by 0.77 million barrels [1][2] Refinery Activity - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 15.73 million barrels per day, up by 600,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.6%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [2] Oil Trade Dynamics - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 5.92 million, 4.20 million, and 1.72 million barrels per day, respectively, with imports increasing by 390,000 barrels per day and exports decreasing by 260,000 barrels per day [2] Refined Product Overview - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $78, $95, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.1, +$2.0, and -$5.1 [3] - Refined product inventories for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 220 million, 120 million, and 40 million barrels, respectively, with decreases of 2.15 million, 1.48 million, and 1.49 million barrels week-on-week [4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 959, 463, and 164 thousand barrels per day, with increases of 24, 4, and decreases of 7 thousand barrels per day, respectively [5] Refined Product Demand and Trade - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 845, 385, and 172 thousand barrels per day, with no change in gasoline, a decrease of 39 thousand barrels per day in diesel, and an increase of 3 thousand barrels per day in jet fuel [6] - Gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 80, 1.21 million, and 1.14 million barrels per day, with changes of -30, +190, and +230 thousand barrels per day, respectively [6] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended for investment include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, and others [6]

黄金小时图 原油方面： 黄金方面： 上周五（10月24日），美国9月未季调的消费者物价指数（CPI）报告发布，其中年率录得3%，低于预期的3.1%；月率录得0.3%，同样低 于预期的0.4%。表明通胀涨幅低于预期，为美联储进一步降息铺平道路。市场投资者对未来降息两次的押注进一步上升，本周降息25个基 点的概率为96.7%，12月累计降息50个基点的概率为94.8%，甚至明年1月降息的押注也在升温。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，本周将迎来美联储议息会议，需警惕波动放大，随着通胀的回落，美联储后续继续降息的 概率上升。 技术面：黄金上周周线收阴线，大幅回落后维持震荡，下方若跌破4000美元则有望进一步深回调。日内下方关注4025美元的关键支撑，若 跌破则有跌破4000美元的风险。 日经225方面： 日经225上周维持震荡上行，多头结构完好，进一步上涨的概率大。小时图来看，上涨走势出现一定的乏力迹象，看多的同时需警惕深回 调，日内关注49350的多空分界线。 【重要声明：上述内容及观点由第三方合作平台智昇提供，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自担。】 本文出自百利好，转载请注明。 原 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for economic growth, focusing on stabilizing growth policies and the development of advanced manufacturing and new productivity [6][22][24] - The macroeconomic indicators show a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with a third-quarter growth of 4.8% [5][21] - The report highlights the need for effective implementation of fiscal policies to boost consumption and investment, particularly in the context of the real estate market [6][22] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.24% and the CSI 300 futures up by 3.18% [2][13] - The report notes a rise in coal futures by 5.66%, while iron ore futures remained stable [2][13] - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market [2][48] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation sequence is stocks > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a bullish outlook on equities [6][48] - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, particularly in light of the anticipated implementation of "incremental" policies [4][14] - Bonds and currency are recommended for underweight positions due to expected short-term impacts from stock-bond dynamics [4][14] Sector Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, with confidence boosted by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [43][45] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive sector, particularly in smart and electric vehicles, supported by government initiatives [45][46] - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting the revitalization of existing properties [37][48] Economic Data Tracking - The report tracks high-frequency data, noting an increase in steel production rates and a decrease in social inventory for construction materials [27][32] - It also highlights fluctuations in consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector, with a slight increase in wholesale sales [37][40] - The report provides insights into the performance of various commodities, including significant movements in oil and gold prices [17][48]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased in early trading on Monday due to a trade-deal framework outlined by U.S. and Chinese economic officials, which alleviated concerns about potential tariffs and export restrictions impacting global economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The trade-deal framework between the U.S. and China is seen as a positive development for the oil market, as both countries are the largest consumers of oil globally [1] - Easing of fears regarding tariffs and export curbs is expected to support global economic growth, which is crucial for oil demand [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The rise in oil prices reflects market optimism following the announcement of the trade-deal framework [1] - The initial trading response indicates a potential stabilization in oil markets amid ongoing trade negotiations between the two economic giants [1]

首席 点 评 ：中美双方达成基本共识 当地时间 10 月 25 日至 26 日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易 代表格里尔在马来西亚吉隆坡举行中美经贸磋商。双方以今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识为引领，围绕美对华海 事物流和造船业 301 措施、延长对等关税暂停期、芬太尼关税和执法合作、农产品贸易、出口管制等双方共同关心的 重要经贸问题，进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识。双方同意进一步 确定具体细节，并履行各自国内批准程序。美国 9 月 CPI 同比增长 3% ，为 2025 年 1 月以来新高，预估为 3.1% ，前 值为 2.9% ；美国 9 月 CPI 环比增长 0.3% ，预估为 0.4% ，前值为 0.4% 。美国 9 月核心 CPI 同比增长 3% ，预估为 3.1% ，前值为 3.1% ；美国 9 月核心 CPI 环比增长 0.2% ，预估为 0.3% ，前值为 0.3% 。 重点品 种 ：铜、黄金、股指 铜： 夜盘铜价小幅收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The upcoming week will focus on the APEC leaders' informal meeting and the "Super Central Bank Week," where major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada will announce interest rate decisions [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on October 30, with internal divisions among members regarding labor market risks and inflation concerns [2] - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are also anticipated to maintain current interest rates, with the Bank of Japan cautious about early tightening and the European Central Bank ruling out further rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index for September, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with August's data showing a persistent year-on-year increase of 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The U.S. will also release third-quarter GDP data, while China will announce the official manufacturing PMI for October, with expectations of a potential rise above the previous month's 49.8% [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Reliance Industries, India's largest private oil refiner, has decided to stop purchasing Russian oil following U.S. sanctions, which previously accounted for about one-third of India's total oil imports [5][6] - The international oil market saw a rebound after hitting a five-month low, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 5% and Brent crude oil futures increasing over 7% last week [10] - The recent sanctions against Russian oil companies have heightened concerns about supply disruptions, contributing to the oil price rebound [11] - U.S. crude oil inventories have shown a decline, with commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all decreasing, indicating a tightening supply situation [12]