Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests that oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and medium - term bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia aims to plug the refining loophole by restricting the export of refined Russian oil products from third - countries to Europe. The implementation of this sanction is difficult, and it has a 6 - month exemption period, so the short - term impact on the market is limited [2] 3. Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14 cents to $67.20 per barrel, a decrease of 0.21%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 7 cents to $69.21 per barrel, a decrease of 0.10%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.20% at 509 yuan per barrel [1] - Iran is waiting for the US to show "genuine determination" on restarting nuclear negotiations with the US, emphasizing that only diplomatic means can solve the problem [1] - The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia. The new measures include lowering the G7's price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, cutting about 20 Russian banks from the SWIFT system, imposing sanctions on the Nord Stream gas pipeline, and restricting Russian oil refined in third - countries [1] - The EU Council has voted to extend the requirement for EU member states to maintain sufficient natural gas reserves before winter for another two years to reduce the risk of natural gas price fluctuations caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1] - The UK has joined the EU in lowering the so - called "price cap" on Russian crude oil exports from $60 to $47.6 per barrel [1] - Iran has agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with representatives of the UK, France, and Germany in the Iran nuclear deal in Istanbul on Friday [1] 4. Investment Logic - The EU's 18th - round sanctions on Russia aim to plug the refining loophole by restricting the export of refined Russian oil products from third - countries (mainly India and Turkey, with a combined diesel export of about 200,000 barrels per day) to Europe. However, the implementation of the sanctions is difficult as products can be blended in third - countries or have their origin certificates changed, and it's hard for the EU to trace Russian oil. The 6 - month exemption period also limits the short - term market impact [2] 5. Strategy - Oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and medium - term bearish allocation [3]

作者-盐 当制裁遭遇沉默，谁在和谁玩心理战？ 7月15日那一天，华盛顿掀起的风暴席卷全球。 白宫宣布对俄罗斯商品全面加征100%关税，这还只是开胃菜。更狠的是所谓的"次级制裁"条款。 前言 那个撼动全球能源版图的72小时，新德里陷入了诡异的安静。美国挥舞着500%关税的屠龙刀，北约秘书长更是直接点名喊话。 可印度偏偏选择了最让人摸不着头脑的反应——沉默。不怒怼，不妥协，不解释，就这么静悄悄地消失在聚光灯下。 这背后到底在下一盘什么棋？莫迪的"三国底牌"究竟是什么鬼？ 任何与俄有"显著贸易往来"的国家都被划入射程，关税上限直接设定为500%，谈判时限仅仅50天。这套机制瞄准的就是中印巴西三国。 北约秘书长马尔克·吕特随即补刀，语气里带着不容置疑的威胁。 他直接点名中国、印度、巴西，称若继续进口俄油，将遭遇"极为严厉"的反制。 这种联动威慑在美欧关系史上实属罕见，白宫与北约一唱一和，形成了前所未有的施压态势。 看似只是关税，其实早已演变为对全球能源政治格局的重新洗牌。美国的算盘打得很清楚：制裁俄罗斯，不如施压它的客户。 面对铺天盖地的威胁，印度却出奇地沉默了。 从莫迪到外交部，无一表态，72小时内未作出任何官方回 ...

Group 1 - South Korea's exports fell by 2.2% year-on-year in July, totaling $36.1 billion, reflecting uncertainty in the global trade environment [1] - Exports to China, South Korea's largest trading partner, decreased by 5.9% to $6.88 billion, while exports to the U.S. also declined by 2.1% to $6.42 billion, indicating a trend of reduced cross-border trade due to fluctuating trade policies [1][3] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance, with exports rising by 16.5% to $7.89 billion, becoming a key pillar supporting foreign trade [3] - The automotive sector also experienced growth, with exports increasing by 3.9% to $3.63 billion, highlighting the irreplaceable role of South Korea's high-end manufacturing in the global supply chain [3] Group 3 - Exports of petroleum products faced a significant decline of 17.5%, totaling $2.52 billion, indicating ongoing weakness in energy demand [3] - The structural adjustments in manufacturing and technology sectors are reshaping corporate decision-making, with some manufacturers altering production plans to mitigate risks and tech companies shifting towards high-value-added products [6] Group 4 - Despite the positive data from semiconductors and automobiles, the continuous demand shrinkage in key markets raises concerns about the overall export engine's stability in a complex global trade environment [6] - The reliance of the South Korean economy on foreign trade is highlighted by the ongoing weakness in traditional energy exports, making the stability of export performance a critical observation point for the second half of the year [6]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with banking and insurance stocks continuing to decline, while the liquor and food & beverage sectors experienced gains [1][6]. Banking Sector - Major banks like China Everbright Bank reported a market capitalization of 249.93 billion with a trading volume of 446 million, showing a decline of 0.09 (-1.59%) [3]. - China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of 436.27 billion, 347.77 billion, and 1,028.70 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 991 million, 2.11 billion, and 462 million, reflecting declines of 0.51 (-1.39%), 0.70 (-1.22%), and 0.07 (-0.83%) [3]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector continued to face downward pressure, with significant declines in major companies [3]. Liquor Industry - The liquor sector saw positive movement, with Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye reporting market capitalizations of 1,820.06 billion, 225.24 billion, and 482.06 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 2.14 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.15 billion, with increases of 4.34 (+2.41%), 1.63 (+1.33%), and 5.86 (+0.41%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry showed varied performance, with Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information having market capitalizations of 229.98 billion, 248.67 billion, and 316.92 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 1.33 billion, 2.71 billion, and 1.24 billion, with changes of -1.34 (-0.42%), +12.40 (+2.13%), and -0.32 (-0.23%) [3]. Oil Industry - The oil sector, including companies like Sinopec and PetroChina, reported market capitalizations of 725.05 billion and 1,643.53 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 758 million and 563 million, showing slight increases [3]. Coal Industry - The coal sector, represented by companies like Shenhua Group and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, had market capitalizations of 750.04 billion and 189.83 billion respectively, with minimal changes in stock prices [3]. Automotive Sector - The automotive sector, led by BYD, reported a market capitalization of 1,849.01 billion with a trading volume of 3.54 billion, showing a slight increase of 2.39 (+0.72%) [3]. Other Sectors - Various other sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and logistics showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing gains while others faced declines [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have slightly declined due to the interplay of supply-demand dynamics and policy interventions, with concerns about demand persisting amid U.S. tariff policies and the EU's sanctions on Russian energy exports [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side shows weakened momentum, with market concerns about oil demand continuing to grow, influenced by U.S. tariff policies that may suppress global economic activity and oil consumption [2][3] - On the supply side, resilience is observed as Russia has developed "immunity" to Western sanctions, allowing oil to continue flowing through various channels, which has not triggered excessive market panic [1][2][3] Policy Interventions - The EU's latest sanctions, including targeting India's Nayara Energy, have not effectively diminished Russian energy exports, as the sanctions face execution challenges and lack support from key emerging economies [2][3] - The U.S. tariff policies are seen as undermining the collaborative value of transatlantic alliances, potentially leading to a "de-Americanization" process among allies [3] Market Reactions - The market's response to sanctions and tariffs has been muted, reflecting skepticism about their effectiveness and execution, with oil prices remaining in the range of $64 to $70 per barrel [1][2][4] - The current oil price dynamics are influenced more by the costs associated with regulatory frameworks and geopolitical tensions rather than traditional supply-demand factors [4] Strategic Implications - The disconnect between sanction policies and market perceptions indicates a weakening of the EU's normative authority, as it struggles to address energy replacement costs and lacks technical solutions for severing trade ties with Russia [3] - If the U.S. and EU fail to repair the value recognition gap, the marginal impact of their policy tools on oil prices is likely to continue diminishing [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the product varieties in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil. In July, the operating rates of domestic refineries increased, but the overall demand for oil prices has limited driving force, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts rose. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure. The expected arrival volume from the European market in July will increase by 30 - 400,000 tons. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - Eastern shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to continue holding the spread short position [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract rose. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main polyester contracts rose. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta were average. Some synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plants restarted. The inventory in the main ports in East China decreased. The macro - environment has strengthened the expectation of industry structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The EG device overseas has poor recovery, and the inventory accumulation expectation is weakened. The TA supply has little change, and it follows the cost to oscillate strongly in the short term [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts rose. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. The continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas has disrupted tapping operations. The downstream tire inventory is high and stable, and the demand has improved slightly. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the external macro - environment and extreme weather such as typhoons [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol price showed a certain pattern. The load of Iranian devices has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has also increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The 9 - 1 spread and basis have returned to the normal range, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the polyolefin price was in a certain state. Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space of polyolefin is also limited [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the PVC market price increased. The enterprise start - up has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened again, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to excessive market news [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed down $0.14 to $67.20 per barrel, a decline of 0.21%. Brent September contract closed down $0.07 to $69.21 per barrel, a decline of 0.10%. SC2509 closed at 509.1 yuan per barrel, down 6.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.20% [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2509 rose 1.53% to 2924 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 rose 0.19% to 3602 yuan per ton [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2509 rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4780 yuan per ton, up 0.76%. EG2509 closed at 4410 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The basis increased by 14 yuan per ton to 65 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4469 yuan per ton [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contract RU2509 rose 85 yuan per ton to 14895 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 75 yuan per ton to 12750 yuan per ton [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2398 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 268 - 272 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 328 - 333 US dollars per ton [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7050 - 7150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of the East China PVC market increased. The price of calcium carbide - based type 5 material was 5000 - 5080 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 4950 - 53000 yuan per ton [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical varieties on July 21 and July 18, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [9]. 3.3 Market News - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's latest sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, leading to lingering concerns about crude oil demand in the market. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including including the Indian Nayara Energy Company, which processes Russian crude oil, in the sanctions scope and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [39][41][44]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc [56][59]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: It presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [62][63][65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [68][69][70] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [73]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results on July 21, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching new highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight decline [3] - The Nasdaq rose by 78.51 points (0.38%) to close at 20,974.17, and the S&P 500 increased by 8.81 points (0.14%) to finish at 6,305.60 [3] - Among the S&P 500 sectors, communication services and consumer discretionary led the gains with increases of 1.90% and 0.60%, respectively, while energy and healthcare sectors saw declines of 0.96% and 0.61% [3] Group 2 - Major tech stocks had mixed performances, with ARM rising over 3%, Alphabet and Qualcomm up over 2%, and Netflix nearly 2% higher, while ASML fell over 2% and Dell Technologies and Micron Technology dropped over 1% [3] - Amazon's stock increased by 1.40%, with analysts expecting Q2 earnings per share of $1.32 and revenue of $162 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 4% and 9% [4] - Amazon plans to invest $104 billion in capital expenditures this year, the highest among S&P 500 companies, including investments in data centers and logistics [4] Group 3 - Tesla is set to release its earnings report this week, which is anticipated to influence trends in the electric vehicle industry and investor sentiment [4] - Neuralink, a company owned by Elon Musk, successfully completed two surgeries in one day, aiming to improve the lives of millions [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight decline of 0.28%, with mixed performances among Chinese stocks, including a significant rise in Huya by 16% [5] Group 4 - Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "deteriorating," citing increased uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and expectations of prolonged high interest rates [6] - The recent tax and spending legislation highlights long-term challenges for the U.S. fiscal outlook, potentially keeping the government deficit above 7% of GDP [7] - Fitch predicts that by 2025, the default rates for U.S. high-yield bonds and leveraged loans will rise to 4.0%-4.5% and 5.5%-6.0%, respectively [7]

新华财经纽约7月21日电（记者刘亚南）随着地缘政治紧张缓和及市场继续担忧关税政策负面影响，国 际油价在隔夜市场窄幅盘整，21日盘中弱势震荡，收盘时国际油价均小幅下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌14美分，收于每桶67.20美元，跌幅为 0.21%；9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌7美分，收于每桶69.21美元，跌幅为0.10%。 伊朗外交部21日发表声明说，伊朗与英国、法国、德国的副外长级核谈判将于25日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔 举行。 关于欧盟最新一轮针对俄罗斯的制裁，美国"重新投资"资本公司创始合伙人约翰·基尔达夫（John Kilduff）表示，现在市场认为俄罗斯供应仍将通过某种方式进入市场，这方面没有太多担忧。 俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫在18日表示，俄罗斯对西方制裁已经具有一定免疫力。 荷兰商业银行分析师认为，欧盟最新制裁措施中很可能产生影响的部分是欧盟禁止进口第三国利用俄罗 斯原油加工的成品油，尽管这方面的监控和政策实施可能困难。 同时，市场担忧美国可能在8月1日最后关税谈判期限后对欧盟等主要经济体开始征收关税，并因此影响 石油需求。 约翰·基尔达夫表示，美国关税对石 ...

伊拉克石油部：伊拉克正在审议土耳其提出的续签能源协议的建议，并计划将合作范围扩大到石油、天 然气和电力领域。 ...