景顺指，年初至今(截至2025年11月7日)，亚洲高收益债券市场表现持续领先泛欧及美国高收益债券市 场，而且有望连续第二年录得最高总回报。 而在总回报表现出色的同时，尽管高收益首次发行(一级市场)正在重启，亚洲高收益债券市场仍不断收 缩。2025年市场总规模持续缩小，截至10月底，摩根大通亚洲信贷高收益指数市值为1,180亿美元，大 约为2021年12月的一半。 估值上看，亚洲高收益债券因持续跑赢，其相对估值优势已经收窄，亚洲BB级及美国BB级债券当前的 收益率基本持平，但相对于美国B级债券，亚洲B级债券可提供约90点子的收益率升幅。 景顺投资发布2026年投资展望指，亚洲高收益债券持续跑赢，短期亚洲高收益债券(1至2年期)有更大投 资价值，相对于BBB级债券可稳定提供超过1-2%4的收益率升幅。就短期高收益债券而言，看好包括前 沿主权债券、次级银行资本、可再生能源及博彩等行业，因为其拥有清晰的再融资路径。认为部分有望 录得10%总回报的B级债券。 据此，关键是要专注于信贷结构及债权人保障，因为私募信贷投资者在潜在的信贷重组情况下，有望处 于更有利的位置。 景顺认为，应该注重亚洲高收益债券范畴是否有额外的资本 ...

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through its flagship Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index [3] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index experienced a slight decline of 0.02% in November, with a year-to-date return of 0.69% [5] - Shorter-term bonds outperformed longer-term bonds in November, with 10-year and above bonds returning -0.67% and 1-3 year bonds returning 0.12% respectively [5] Index Performance Summary - The China Aggregate Index (I08271CN) recorded a month-to-date return of -0.02% and a year-to-date return of 0.69%, with an index level of 244.63 [7] - The China Treasury and Policy Banks Index (I32561CN) had a return of -0.11% in November, with a year-to-date return of 0.49% [7] - The 1-3 Year maturity segment (I08279CN) achieved a month-to-date return of 0.12% and a year-to-date return of 1.13% [7] Economic Outlook - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to stabilize around 1.8% by year-end, potentially testing the 2% mark in 2026, supported by positive macroeconomic fundamentals and government policies [13] - U.S. liquidity pressures are identified as a primary cause for declines in dollar-denominated risk assets, with a widening of credit spreads in U.S. corporate bonds observed [13] - The Bloomberg Asia (ex-Japan) USD bond index is projected to experience a mild decline in 2026, as the benefits of U.S. Federal Reserve easing may be offset by widening credit spreads [13]

韩国财政部长具润哲周四在向总统李在明汇报政策时称，韩国将寻求在明年上半年设立韩式主权财富基 金。 韩国财政部长具润哲周四在向总统李在明汇报政策时称，韩国将寻求在明年上半年设立韩式主权财富基 金。 具润哲表示，财政部将积极管理政府债券，调整短期和长期国债的发行组合，并调整国债、公共债券和 担保债券的发行时机。 韩国财政部计划明年实现GDP增速至少1.8%，并将于1月制定增长战略。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 具润哲表示，财政部将积极管理政府债券，调整短期和长期国债的发行组合，并调整国债、公共债券和 担保债券的发行时机。 韩国财政部计划明年实现GDP增速至少1.8%，并将于1月制定增长战略。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 ...

据报道，日本20年期债券发售需求达到2020年以来最高水平。 据报道，日本20年期债券发售需求达到2020年以来最高水平。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Credit Bond Market Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the credit bond market outlook for 2026, indicating a neutral to bearish sentiment with expectations of rising interest rates. The ten-year government bond yield is projected to range between 1.7% and 2.1% [1][3][18]. Key Points and Arguments Market Environment - The credit bond market is expected to face a structural asset shortage, with demand dynamics potentially reshaped by new fee regulations. The net supply in the primary market is anticipated to remain high, particularly with significant issuance of technology innovation bonds and positive net financing for private enterprises [2][3][6]. - The overall credit risk is manageable despite some localized risk events, such as defaults and extensions in the real estate sector. The impact of these events on the broader credit bond market is considered limited [5][22]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The net supply of industrial bonds is expected to remain elevated due to improved corporate profitability and capital expenditure needs. Conversely, the net supply of urban investment bonds may slightly turn negative [1][4]. - Public fund structures are shifting, with an increase in the burden on market value-based bond funds, potentially leading to a diversion of funds to ETFs or separate accounts, which will affect demand for various bond types [6][7]. Institutional Preferences - Public funds, particularly market value-based funds, are facing increased burdens, with a total scale of 8.6 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025. This may lead to significant impacts on the demand for certain bond types, especially those with lower credit ratings [7][12]. - Insurance companies are expected to reduce their allocation to credit bonds, favoring equity investments instead. The expansion of the southbound trading channel may also reduce demand for long-term domestic bonds [14][15]. Investment Strategy - The focus for 2026 should be on the certainty of coupon payments rather than capital gains, with a preference for short to medium-term bonds (especially those with maturities of three years or less) [20][22]. - There are opportunities in medium-term, high-grade credit bonds, particularly in the wake of new fee regulations and potential interest rate cuts, which could create short-term trading opportunities [20][19]. Risk Assessment - The overall sentiment towards credit risk remains cautious, with a need to monitor potential localized risk exposures and their implications for the broader market [5][16]. - The credit spread for bonds is currently low, with limited room for compression in the medium term. Long-term bonds may face widening pressures due to shifts in market dynamics and reduced insurance capital allocation [18][19]. Other Important Insights - The carbon bond fund's entry into the open market is expected to significantly impact the credit bond market, potentially leading to increased inflows and enhanced credit performance [10]. - The current landscape for credit ETFs is around 500 billion yuan, with expectations for continued growth driven by policy support and increased participation from various institutional investors [11]. - The anticipated expansion of the wealth management market, driven by changes in bank deposit rates and fee regulations, is expected to support growth in credit investments, particularly in high-grade, short-duration assets [12][13]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for the credit bond market in 2026 is cautious, with expectations of high supply and a shift in demand dynamics. The focus should be on identifying structural opportunities and adapting strategies to the evolving market landscape [22][23].

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.30% to 112.790, the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% to 108.030, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 105.825, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.04% to 102.456 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 1.10 basis points to 1.9050%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.8360%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield decreased by 1.25 basis points to 2.2410% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 1,898 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation on December 10, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [2] - On the same day, 793 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 1,105 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market liquidity is more abundant, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping by 1 basis point to below 1.29%, and overnight quotes for anonymous (X-REPO) falling to 1.25% [2] Economic Fundamentals - China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 0.2% in the previous month; the PPI fell by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 2% [3] - The increase in CPI is primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% year-on-year [3] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is influenced by domestic supply-demand structure optimization and international commodity price transmission, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3] Operational Recommendations - The December Politburo meeting emphasized "quality and efficiency" and "counter-cyclical and cross-cycle policies," indicating that there may not be significant increases in counter-cyclical policies, and total policies like rate cuts may be cautious [4] - The current 10-year government bond faces resistance around the 1.85% level, while the T2603 contract may find support near 107.6 [4] - The market sentiment has stabilized, and the pressure on the bond market may have passed; if year-end institutional rebalancing concludes and incremental policies do not meet expectations, a rebound in the bond market may occur [4]

Group 1 - The German 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points, reaching 2.851%, with intraday trading between 2.895% and 2.851% [1] - The 2-year German bond yield rose by 2.4 basis points, reported at 2.177%, and experienced high-level fluctuations after reaching a daily high [1] - The 30-year German bond yield decreased by 0.6 basis points, reported at 3.453% [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds decreased by 2.237 basis points, reported at +67.104 basis points, continuing to decline throughout the day [1]

Group 1 - The yield on French 10-year government bonds increased by 1.8 basis points, reaching 3.573%, with a daily high of 3.614% [1] - The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds rose by 1.1 basis points to 3.557%, having peaked at 3.606% [1] - The yield on Spanish 10-year government bonds went up by 0.9 basis points, settling at 3.320% [1] - The yield on Greek 10-year government bonds increased by 1.4 basis points, reaching 3.470% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance will issue a total of 750 billion yuan in special government bonds on December 12, 2025, to repay maturing debt, following a "borrow new to repay old" strategy, which does not involve social investors and does not increase the fiscal deficit [3][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The issuance consists of two phases: a 10-year bond of 400 billion yuan and a 15-year bond of 350 billion yuan, totaling 750 billion yuan [4][6]. - This issuance is a continuation of the practice established in previous years, aimed at rolling over the debt that is due [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context - Since the 21st century, China has maintained a continuous current account surplus and rising foreign exchange reserves, leading to issues such as excess liquidity and asset price bubbles [3]. - In 2007, the Ministry of Finance issued 1.55 trillion yuan in special government bonds to manage foreign exchange reserves and establish the China Investment Corporation [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance Indicators - For the first ten months of the year, the central government's general public budget revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, while expenditures increased by 6.3% to 34,727 billion yuan [6].

Group 1 - The article highlights that low interest rates do not guarantee low volatility in the bond market, as evidenced by overseas experiences where significant adjustments occur even in low-rate environments [1][6][11] - In the context of low interest rates, the bond market often experiences rapid and substantial adjustments characterized by three main features: large adjustment amplitudes (average adjustments of 81bp for the US, 53bp for Germany, 59bp for France, and 74bp for Japan), quick adjustment speeds (typically occurring within 1-2 months), and adjustments that are often accompanied by rising term premiums [1][17][24] - The concept of "convexity" in bonds amplifies market volatility in low interest rate environments, leading to a non-linear increase in duration and significant sensitivity to price changes, resulting in greater capital losses during interest rate rebounds compared to high-rate environments [1][24][28] Group 2 - The article discusses that the micro-foundations of bond market vulnerability in low interest rate environments stem from homogenized strategies and crowded trading behaviors among institutions, which can lead to increased fragility [2][34][46] - A reversal in macroeconomic expectations often serves as a direct trigger for breaking market consensus and inducing high volatility in the bond market, with historical instances showing that significant market adjustments can occur even without tightening monetary policy [2][46][57] - The anticipated economic recovery in 2026 is expected to shift from a confidence-building phase to a "non-typical" recovery, with monetary policy becoming more cautious regarding interest rate cuts, which may lead to increased volatility in the bond market due to the rebalancing of funds [3][79][88]