1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Middle - East energy facilities attack has severely impacted the global energy supply, with a significant drop in the daily oil export volume from Middle - East countries [6]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate target range, with a more conservative stance on future interest rate cuts, reflecting its cautious attitude in the face of multiple risks [7]. - For various commodities, different supply - demand situations and price trends are presented, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [11][13][15]. - In the stock market, the A - share market is in an adjustment pattern, and investors are advised to manage positions and be cautious in trading [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - The prices of most chemical products rose on March 23, 2026, compared with March 22. For example, the price of coking coal increased by 92.50 to 1,263.50, with a growth rate of 7.899%; the price of coke increased by 72.0 to 1,812.50, with a growth rate of 4.137% [4]. 3.2 Macro - news - The attack on Iran's energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of energy facilities in the Middle - East being attacked. Iran has announced counter - measures, and the conflict has had an unprecedented impact on global energy supply [6]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate, with a more conservative interest - rate cut path, and has raised inflation and economic growth expectations [7]. - China will continue to communicate on Trump's visit to China, and has launched a second - round pilot project to extend the land contract for another 30 years [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The near - month contract has limited upward space due to high domestic inventory, while the far - month contract may have opportunities to be deployed at low prices [11]. - **Corn**: The current price is in a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [11]. - **Peanut**: The futures price is in a high - level narrow - range shock, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 8200 and the support at 8000 [11]. - **Pig**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overall trend is weak [11]. - **Egg**: The spot price is stable, showing a pattern of near - strength and far - weakness, and short - term trading is recommended [13]. - **Jujube**: The market is in a seasonal consumption off - season, and the supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to hold and pay attention to the previous low support [13]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the price is suppressed, but in the long - term, it is supported by demand and planting area expectations, and it is recommended to buy on dips around 15000 [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: There is an expectation of stronger exports, but attention should be paid to the risk of near - month contract correction [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production is at a relatively high level, and the price is supported. It is recommended to go long on dips [13][15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price has broken through the previous range, and attention should be paid to the support at 4100 and the pressure at 4200 [15]. - **Urea**: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the short - term price may face shock and pressure [15]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are in high - level shock, and attention should be paid to risks [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait for the price to stop falling and stabilize [15][16]. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to take a long - position approach on dips, and be vigilant against macro risks [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The prices are strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [16]. - **Ferroalloy**: The short - term trend is strong, but it is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the pressure at 150000 [18]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: The A - share market is in an adjustment pattern. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend. It is not advisable to blindly chase the rise or kill the fall, and it is recommended to control positions [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on March 23, 2026, and the trends of futures main (continuous) contracts in March 2026. The trends include weak - side oscillations, strong - side oscillations, and wide - range oscillations, and specific resistance and support levels are given for each contract [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **March 23, 2026 Outlook**: Stock index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are expected to oscillate weakly; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures (T2606, TL2606) are expected to oscillate weakly; gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and aluminum futures are expected to oscillate weakly; manganese silicon, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, liquefied gas, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, methanol, and ethylene glycol futures are expected to oscillate strongly [2][4]. - **March 2026 Outlook**: Stock index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are expected to oscillate weakly; gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, zinc, tin, and lithium carbonate futures are expected to oscillate weakly; aluminum futures are expected to oscillate in a wide range; alumina, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Macro Information**: The Chinese government leaders made statements on economic development, opening - up, and market order; the LPR remained unchanged; the draft of the Financial Law was soliciting public opinions; central bank leaders expounded on monetary policies; the Ministry of Finance planned to increase investment in people and promote consumption; relevant ministries promoted development in multiple fields such as industry, commerce, and rural areas [7][8][9][10][11]. - **International News**: The US - Iran conflict escalated, affecting the global oil market and financial markets; the US Senate voted against a homeland security department appropriation bill; the Federal Reserve officials had different views on interest rate cuts; Russia's central bank cut the benchmark interest rate; the Middle East conflict might impact global trade [14][15][16][20]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Policy Adjustments**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading instructions and price limits of platinum and palladium futures contracts [21]. - **Market Quotes**: On March 20, oil prices rose due to concerns about supply shortages; international precious metal and base metal futures generally fell; the RMB against the US dollar rose; the US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies mostly fell [21][23][24]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 20, major stock index futures contracts (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) opened slightly higher, then rebounded and fell back, with increased downward pressure [24][25][26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On March 20, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts (T2606, TL2606) opened slightly lower, rebounded and fell back, with increased downward pressure [49][53]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On March 20, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts showed different trends, generally with increased downward pressure [55][62][68][72]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On March 20, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, and other base metal futures contracts had different trends, with different degrees of downward or upward pressure [76][80][89][94][100]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On March 20, manganese silicon, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and other commodity futures contracts showed different trends, and the report also gave future trend expectations [121][123][128][132].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 市场极致交易加息风险，贵金属重挫 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-3-23 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4491.670 | 5018.098 | -526.428 | -10.49% | | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 1039.22 | 1133.00 | -93.78 | -8.28% | | 基差（TD-期货，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -0.72 | -1.7 | 0.98 | -57.65% | | 内外价差（TD-伦敦，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | 2.47 | 4.02 | -1.55 | -38.56% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation and oil prices continue to impact precious metal prices. High oil prices drive up inflation concerns and raise interest - rate hike expectations, leading to significant declines in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite has cooled, and financial assets have fallen across the board. Gold and silver are under significant downward pressure, and their prices are positively correlated with risk appetite [10]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest - rate cut this year. Central banks around the world have taken different stances in response to the situation, with some maintaining rates and adjusting their policy outlooks [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - Gold and silver prices dropped significantly: Shanghai Gold Futures (2604) fell 8.97%, COMEX Gold (2604) fell 11.26%, Shanghai Silver Futures (2606) fell 18.69%, and COMEX Silver (2605) fell 16.64%. The US dollar index declined 0.99%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.02% [4][10]. - The US PPI far exceeded expectations, with the February PPI rising 0.7% month - on - month, far higher than the expected 0.3%, and 3.4% year - on - year, while the core PPI reached a one - year high of 3.9%, further compressing the Fed's room for interest - rate cuts this year [11]. - The Middle East situation remained tense. The South Pars Gas Field in Iran and some petrochemical facilities in Assaluyeh were attacked by the US and Israel. Qatar reported that the Iranian attacks damaged 17% of LNG production capacity. Oil prices fluctuated significantly [10][13]. 3.2 Weekly Review - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision and advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed raised GDP and inflation expectations for this year and the next [10][11]. - The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but warned about the impact of oil price hikes on inflation. The European Central Bank maintained rates at 2% for the sixth consecutive time, with a tougher policy stance. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, removed the "rate - cut" wording, and signaled a possible rate hike [10][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The gold - to - silver ratio declined again, with the domestic gold - to - silver ratio returning to 59.98 [15]. - The US 10 - year Treasury yield fell below 4% [21]. 3.4 Position Data - For Shanghai Gold, the net long position continued to decrease, with more long - position cuts and short - position increases. For Shanghai Silver, the net long position continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [10]. - As of March 17, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions rising. The CFTC net long position in silver decreased, with more long - position cuts and short - position increases [10][27]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and the silver ETF holdings also decreased significantly [30][32]. - Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase, while COMEX Gold inventory continued to decrease. Shanghai Silver inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and COMEX Silver inventory continued to decline [34][36]. 3.5 Summary - High oil prices drive up interest - rate hike expectations, putting significant downward pressure on gold and silver, especially with the low risk appetite, the pressure on gold and silver continues to increase [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro and micro factors resonate, causing a surge in market panic. Funds flee in a stampede, leading to a breakdown in Shanghai copper prices and testing key support levels [6]. - In the short - term, copper has broken through important psychological support, with the price center shifting downwards and more downside potential. It is recommended to wait for market sentiment to stabilize, avoid blind bottom - fishing or panic selling. Industrial buyers should purchase as needed, increase inventory replenishment during price corrections, and sellers should wait for price rebounds to hedge against upper pressure levels. In the long - term, due to tight copper ore supply, the explosion of green copper demand, national strategic resource security premiums, and intensified Sino - US competition, the long - term trend of copper should not be overly pessimistic [6]. - The focus range for Shanghai copper is [88000, 98000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [11500, 12500] US dollars/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - Core view: Macro and micro factors resonate, market panic soars, funds flee, and Shanghai copper breaks down to test support [6]. - Strategy outlook: Deterioration of the Middle East situation, inflation concerns reversing global monetary easing expectations, central banks like the Fed turning hawkish, a stronger US dollar suppressing copper prices, high inventory and lackluster peak season lead to a breakdown in copper prices. Wait for a stabilization opportunity. In the short - term, copper breaks through support, price center shifts down. In the long - term, don't be overly pessimistic about copper's trend [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Middle East situation: The situation has escalated, inflation concerns have reversed monetary easing expectations, and the Fed has turned hawkish. On March 19, the federal funds rate remained at 3.50% - 3.75%. The 2026 full - year interest rate cut expectation has dropped from 2 - 3 times at the beginning of the year to only 1 time. The Fed has also raised the 2026 core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. The US 2 - month PPI exceeded expectations, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The Middle East conflict has led to an out - of - control surge in energy prices, and global central banks have turned hawkish [8][17]. - China's situation: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, LPR has remained unchanged, and February's macro data showed a weak recovery. Industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year, also lower than expected. Fixed - asset investment increased by 3.9% year - on - year, with real estate investment decreasing by 8.5%. In February, new RMB loans were 1.45 trillion yuan, less than expected. The central bank's LPR remained unchanged, and the market's expectation of an interest rate cut was dashed [18][20]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Bullish factors: Increased disturbances in copper ore, low copper concentrate processing fees, calls to include copper concentrates in the storage system, anti - involution in the copper smelting industry at home and abroad, resilient demand in power and new energy vehicles, and rising national security and scarcity premiums for copper [27]. - Bearish factors: The Fed turning hawkish, the ECB and the Bank of England following suit, China's LPR remaining unchanged, market liquidity under pressure, the Middle East situation changing sharply, high market risk - aversion, rising crude oil prices, a stronger US dollar, concerns about the global economic outlook, high copper prices suppressing demand, excessive inventory accumulation at home and abroad, and a short - term decline in speculative enthusiasm [27]. - Copper price performance: As of March 20, LME copper was at 11835 US dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.7%, COMEX copper was at 530.2 cents/pound (equivalent to 11685 US dollars/ton), and Shanghai copper was at 94740 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 5.55% [28]. - Supply: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In February 2026, China imported 2310000 physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 11.97% and a year - on - year increase of 5.84%. Copper concentrate processing fees are at a low level, and electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69 tons. It is expected to increase to 1.1952 million tons in March [50][52]. - Demand: The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season has started slowly. Traditional sectors such as real estate and home appliances are dragging down demand, while emerging sectors such as power grid investment, new energy, and AI data centers are providing support [55]. - Inventory: As of March 19, domestic copper social inventory was 523100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26600 tons. SHFE copper inventory was 411100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22300 tons, LME copper inventory was 342300 tons, a weekly increase of 30500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory was 588700 tons, a weekly decrease of 2841 tons [56]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Macro: The Middle East situation has further deteriorated, inflation concerns have reversed global monetary easing expectations, central banks have turned hawkish, the US dollar has strengthened to suppress copper prices, Trump's visit to China has been postponed, and China's LPR has remained unchanged, resulting in market liquidity pressure [88]. - Fundamentals: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, processing fees are at a new low, electrolytic copper production decreased in February and is expected to increase in March, imports have decreased, and global copper inventory is high. After the sharp decline in copper prices this week, downstream procurement has been active, but terminal demand is lackluster [88]. - Strategy: In the short - term, wait for market sentiment to stabilize, avoid blind actions. In the long - term, be less pessimistic about copper's trend. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [88000, 98000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [11500, 12500] US dollars/ton [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton prices fluctuated and declined. After the previous positive factors were exhausted, the market adjusted temporarily, with support around 15,000. The 1 - 2 month textile exports were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. Zheng cotton pulled back during the session and found support around 15,000. In the short term, with a bullish and oscillating mindset, rely on the support level [4]. - Bullish factors include the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026 with an expected reduction of over 10%, downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, the reduction of export tariffs to the US, the easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional peak seasons [5]. - Bearish factors include a general decline in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices fluctuated and declined. After the previous positive factors were exhausted, the market adjusted temporarily, with support around 15,000. ICAC predicts that global consumption in 26/27 will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area will be regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. The USDA March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. Customs data shows that from January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. From January to February, China's cotton imports were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's March 25/26 season data shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - No information about daily tips is provided in the given content. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information about today's focus is provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. There are specific production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data for various countries [10][11]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4% decrease; consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; the ending inventory is expected to be 16.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the global cotton trade volume is expected to be 9.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the yield per unit area is expected to be 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is expected to be 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [12]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No information about position data is provided in the given content.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on copper at high prices; strengthening observation on aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing on nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold and silver to trade in a range; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with oscillations; shorting soda ash at high prices; buying rubber on dips without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with oscillations; apples and jujubes are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Adopting a bearish approach on rebounds for May and July live hog contracts, treating September contracts with a range - bound view; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; being cautious about chasing long on the May soybean meal contract; suggesting rolling long on oils and gradually reducing early long positions [1] Core Views - Geopolitical events such as the situation in the Middle East and policies of central banks and governments have significant impacts on the futures market, affecting market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and price trends [5][6] - Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics, inventory situations, and cost factors, which together influence their price trends and investment strategies [8][9][13] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Bearish in the short term due to geopolitical events and reduced market risk appetite, but bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range, with short - term trends depending on bond allocation forces and medium - term trends on inflation and economic recovery expectations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Short - term trading is recommended. The inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth, and the market is trading the substitution effect of coal for oil and gas, with short - term prices being bullish [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading is recommended. The futures price is undervalued, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [9] - **Glass**: Selling out - of - the - money call options is suggested. The market is expected to be bearish with oscillations and may have a small rebound [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Holding short positions moderately at high prices is recommended. The price is under pressure from macro factors but is supported by domestic inventory reduction and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to the duration and intensity of the war, global recession expectations, and inventory reduction progress [13][14] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening observation is recommended. The price may continue to decline in the short term, and long positions can be considered after the market stabilizes, paying attention to the development of the Middle East situation [15] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing is recommended. The price is expected to be bullish with oscillations, with strong support from the ore end but weak demand and inventory accumulation [17] - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. The price is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand improvement [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to trade in a range, and waiting and seeing is recommended [19][20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to trade in a range, with supply and demand both increasing and attention paid to export bans and supply disturbances [22] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish with oscillations, with short - term trading within the ascending channel. Attention should be paid to policies, export situations, and raw material prices [23][25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish with oscillations. Strong rebounds are expected in the short term, and chasing highs should be cautious. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply - side maintenance, and downstream replenishment [26] - **Styrene**: Bullish with oscillations. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended. Attention should be paid to raw material prices, inventory, and downstream demand [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish with oscillations. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, inventory, the Iranian situation, and oil price fluctuations [29] - **Rubber**: Bullish with oscillations. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended. Attention should be paid to inventory, downstream demand, and market sentiment [30] - **Urea**: Bullish with oscillations and range trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to compound fertilizer production, device maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish with oscillations and range trading is recommended. The price may be pushed up in the short term due to supply shocks, and traditional downstream demand is weak [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting at high prices is recommended. The supply is expected to be high, and the price may continue to be under pressure in the short term [35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish with oscillations. The global cotton supply is increasing, and domestic consumption is strong. The price is expected to be bullish with oscillations [37] - **Apples**: Expected to trade in a range, with the market showing a two - tiered trading pattern [38] - **Jujubes**: Expected to trade in a range, with raw material acquisition based on quality and high enthusiasm for sellers to ship goods [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Hogs**: May and July contracts should be treated with a bearish approach on rebounds, and September contracts should be treated with a range - bound view. The short - term price is expected to bottom out, and the long - term price may rise with supply reduction [42] - **Eggs**: Expected to trade in a range. Short - term range - bound oscillations are expected, and attention should be paid to the timing of selling short on the near - term contracts [43] - **Corn**: Expected to trade in a short - term range. Attention should be paid to the circulation of high - quality grain in the Northeast, replenishment in North China, and wheat substitution [44] - **Soybean Meal**: Being cautious about chasing long on the May contract. Attention should be paid to soybean arrival rhythm, auctions, and oil prices [44][45] - **Oils**: Expected to be bullish with oscillations in the short term. Rolling long positions are recommended, and early long positions should be gradually reduced [46][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, influenced by geopolitical factors, fuel oil fluctuated at a high level in sync with crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 4,887 yuan/ton, up 3.32% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 5,760 yuan/ton, up 3.19% for the week. The market structures of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remain strong. Next week, international crude oil prices may fluctuate upward under the influence of geopolitics, and fuel oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and rise with the market. For operation, trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 4,700 - 5,000 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 5,600 - 6,100 range in the short term [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly View - Geopolitical factors caused fuel oil to fluctuate at a high level in sync with crude oil last week. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 4,887 yuan/ton, up 3.32% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 5,760 yuan/ton, up 3.19% for the week. In terms of fundamentals, the low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by reduced supply from the Middle East, unfeasible European - to - Singapore arbitrage due to high freight, and reduced production by Asian refiners due to lack of crude oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by supply shortages in Singapore due to transportation disruptions in the Middle East and potential strong demand from Chinese refiners. Next week, international crude oil prices may rise under geopolitical influence, and fuel oil prices are expected to follow suit. Short - term operation ranges are 4,700 - 5,000 for high - sulfur and 5,600 - 6,100 for low - sulfur [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The previous value of the FU main contract was 4,527 yuan/ton, and the current value is 4,803 yuan/ton, up 276 yuan or 6.10%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 5,245 yuan/ton, and the current value is 5,718 yuan/ton, up 473 yuan or 9.03% [6] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 1,053.00 to 979.00, a decrease of 74.00 or 7.03%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 1,050.00 to 990.00, a decrease of 60.00 or 5.71%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 781.66 to 736.63, a decrease of 45.03 or 5.76%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 1,045.50 to 928.29, a decrease of 117.21 or 11.21%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 708.42 to 663.53, a decrease of 44.89 or 6.34%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 1,422.14 to 1,605.32, an increase of 183.18 or 12.88% [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: There are graphs showing the consumption of Singapore fuel oil, Chinese fuel oil, and Shandong fuel oil coking margin from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical data is not provided in the text [8][9][10] 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: From January 7, 2026, to March 18, 2026, the inventory changed from 2,270.9 to 2,486.9 barrels, with fluctuations in the increase or decrease of inventory each week [11] - There are also charts about the seasonal chart of Singapore fuel oil inventory and the inventory trend of Zhoushan Port fuel oil, but specific numerical data is not provided in the text [12][14] 3.5 Spread Data - There is a graph about the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical data is not provided in the text [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Urea's开工负荷率 has slightly decreased, and off - season reserves are being released into the market, resulting in an abundant supply. Agricultural fertilizer preparation and use, along with the increased operation rate of compound fertilizer plants, have boosted the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low compared to the same period last year, and inventory reduction is smooth. In the short term, the price will fluctuate within a certain range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Changes - Urea's futures price has declined, while the spot price has remained stable. On March 20, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton or 2.54% from last week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.54% from last week [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea has strengthened. On March 20, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 3 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 57) - (- 3) yuan/ton [3][7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of urea has weakened. On March 20, the 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 53) - (- 39) yuan/ton [3][8][9]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The urea operating load rate is 92.21%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 77.92%, a decrease of 5.58 percentage points from last week. The daily average urea output is 21.71 tons. Some plants in Hainan, Xinjiang, Sichuan and other regions have been under maintenance or short - term shutdown, resulting in a slight decrease in the operating load. Off - season reserves are being released into the market, and the market supply is abundant [3][11]. - **Cost**: The anthracite market is tepid, and coal prices are mainly stable. As of March 19, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi is 880 - 930 yuan/ton; the tax - included price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi is 780 - 840 yuan/ton, both of which are at the same level as the closing price of the same period last week [15]. - **Profit**: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea is 5.85%, and the gross profit margin of gas - based urea is - 2.65%. The mainstream price of the urea market is running at a high level, and the production profit of urea has recovered [15]. - **Demand**: - **Agricultural demand**: As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually being released. The average pre - collection of major urea production enterprises is 6.4 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises is 100.9% [16][17]. - **Industrial demand**: - The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 49.97%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory is 73.38 tons, a decrease of 1.51 percentage points from last week. The demand in the compound fertilizer market is fair, dealers are accelerating the distribution of goods, mainly to digest inventory, and fertilizer enterprises' operation has increased to a relatively high level to meet the shipping demand [21]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 62.91%, an increase of 5.91 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output is 3.395 tons. Some plants in Shanxi Fengxi Linyi, Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui D area and Shaanxi Longhua have had short - term shutdowns for maintenance, while some plants in Shanxi Fengxi, Zhongyuan Dahua, Henan Jinkong Tianqing, Hubei Huaqiang and Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui have resumed production after maintenance, and the plants of Shaanxi Longhua and Henan Junhua are in the recovery stage [24]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores have decreased, and the demand support in the panel market has weakened [25]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 65.1 tons, a decrease of 7 tons from last week and a decrease of 44.4 tons compared to the same period last year. Urea port inventory is 23.9 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. There are 8499 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 16.998 tons, an increase of 2371 receipts or 5.462 tons compared to the same period last year [3][28]. Key Points of Attention - The operation of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical situation, suppressing precious metal prices. However, in the long - term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited, and long - term long positions can be considered for allocation [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking - On March 20, 2026, London gold spot was at $4673.91/ounce, London silver spot was at $71.68/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4675.70/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $71.70/ounce. Compared with March 19, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 1.9% and silver down about 0.8% - 4.0%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also declined, with AU2604 down 2.1% and AG2604 down 1.7% [3] - The price differences between domestic and foreign markets also changed significantly. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 104.3% from March 19 to March 20 [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, a decrease of 0.48% from March 19. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, an increase of 0.41% [3] - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the number of long positions increased by 0.24%, and the number of short positions increased by 7.22%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the number of long positions decreased by 2.00%, and the number of short positions increased by 5.91% [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 20, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106845.00 kg, unchanged from March 19. The SHFE silver inventory was 362495.00 kg, a decrease of 0.65% [3] - The COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.59% [3] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89, a decrease of 0.11% from March 19. The US dollar index was 99.51, an increase of 0.33% [3] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4%, an increase of 3.29%. The VIX index increased by 11.31%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 3.70% [3] 5. Market Review - On March 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 3.83% to 1039.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 6.25% to 17625 yuan/kg [3] 6. Impact Analysis - Affected by the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, oil prices remained high. The market traded the logic that "rising oil prices weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts", leading to a panic of interest rate hike expectations, a liquidity shock in the capital market, and a continuous sharp decline in precious metal prices [4] - The market generally expects the European and British central banks to raise interest rates 2 - 3 times this year. Traders on Friday evening expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October to be close to 50% and in December to be close to 100%. As a result, US Treasury yields rose significantly, and precious metal prices were further pressured [4] 7. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, as the Middle - East geopolitical situation shows no sign of easing, the trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue, and precious metal prices are expected to be under pressure [4] - In the long term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited [4]