Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Styrene: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Propylene: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Plastics: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - PVC: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Glass: No clear investment rating indicated [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Bottle Chip: No clear investment rating indicated [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for various chemical products shows a complex and diverse situation, with different products having different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated widely around the 5 - day moving average. Device start - stop plans exist, and production enterprise inventory pressure is relatively controllable. Downstream demand is general, with some downstream device restarts providing slight support [2] - Polyolefin futures had narrow - range fluctuations. Polyethylene supply decreased slightly, and demand improvement was limited. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase, and short - term demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene rebounded after a decline. Domestic production decreased slightly, imports are expected to shrink, and ports continued to destock. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures had narrow - range fluctuations. The cost end provides support, but there is a lack of one - sided driving force. Domestic production is expected to increase [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated narrowly, with PX rising rapidly at the end of the session and PTA following. PX supply - demand is expected to improve, and attention should be paid to oil prices and demand recovery [4] - Ethylene glycol prices fell below 4400 yuan/ton. Ports are accumulating inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to demand recovery [4] - Short - fiber supply and demand are stable, and it is recommended to consider long - term allocation. Bottle chip processing margins are low, and capacity over - supply is a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell smoothly. Ports are rapidly accumulating inventory, and the short - term market is weak [5] - Urea prices rebounded slightly, but the short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a weak operation. Supply is high, demand is insufficient, and prices are expected to be weak [6] - Caustic soda is in a strong operation. Supply has decreased slightly, and short - term prices are expected to be strong, but long - term supply pressure remains [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Unified soda ash prices weakened. The industry is accumulating inventory, and long - term supply exceeds demand [7] - Glass prices fluctuated narrowly. The industry may continue to accumulate inventory, but cost increases are expected to prevent prices from falling below previous lows [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. In the medium term, as global refineries reach their highest annual operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. The oil market may decline in the second half of the year unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1] - PX supply is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, but PX remains in a low - inventory state. The PXN has support at the bottom, but the floating price of PX has shown some weakness [1] - In the short term, the supply - demand situation of PTA has improved due to maintenance, but it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The mainstream suppliers' active sales are putting pressure on prices [2] - The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.7%). The terminal weaving industry's raw material restocking was driven by anti - involution sentiment in July, but the demand has not fundamentally improved. The polyester load remains firm in the short term [2] - The spot production profit of PF is 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton). The demand for PF has improved slightly but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is under pressure from the forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [3] - The spot processing fee of PR is 393 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 27 yuan/ton). Major polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to cut production in August, and the processing fee is expected to recover [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA, as well as Chinese and Asian PX [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, processing fees, and in - factory inventory available days [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [88][93][96]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not clearly defined, represented by "なな女" [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly defined, represented by "なな女" [1] - Styrene: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - PX: Not clearly defined, represented by "ななな" [1] - PTA: Represented by "★★★", indicating a more distinct long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Represented by "★☆☆", indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Short Fiber: Represented by "☆☆☆", indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the market [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined, represented by "な女女" [1] - Urea: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - PVC: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - Caustic Soda: Represented by "★☆☆", indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Soda Ash: Not clearly defined, represented by "な女女" [1] - Glass: Represented by "☆☆☆", indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins generally show a weak or range - bound trend. The demand for propylene is in the off - season, and the supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, with varying demand situations [2] - The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by weak oil prices. Pure benzene may have a seasonal improvement in the second half of the third quarter and face pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene's supply is sufficient but demand is weak [3] - PX and PTA prices are weak due to oil prices, and there is a possibility of valuation repair for PTA. Ethylene glycol prices are under pressure from port inventory accumulation. Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, and bottle - chip processing margins are still low [5] - Methanol shows a narrow - range fluctuation, with port inventory accumulation. Urea prices are falling, and the market focuses on export policies [6] - PVC shows an oscillating trend with weak demand and increasing supply. Caustic soda is under long - term supply pressure [7] - Soda ash and glass are in a weak state, with inventory accumulation and weak demand [8] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The downstream demand is in the off - season, the supply is relatively abundant, and the price weakness continues [2] - Polyolefins futures: Polyethylene has an expected increase in short - term output, with improving demand. Polypropylene has stable costs, but new orders are insufficient and the purchase enthusiasm is suppressed [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The oil price is weak, the domestic output increases, the import decreases, and there is a seasonal improvement expectation in the second half of the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene: The supply is sufficient, the main consumption is slightly increasing, but the downstream procurement intention is low [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: Affected by weak oil prices, the prices are weak, and there is a possibility of PTA valuation repair. The industrial chain profit is expected to transfer from PX to PTA [5] - Ethylene glycol: Affected by port inventory accumulation, the price is oscillating downward [5] - Short fiber: The price follows the raw materials, and there is a positive expectation in the peak season [5] - Bottle chip: The processing margin is still low, and over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The coastal olefin start - up is low, the port inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term and may change with the approaching peak season [6] - Urea: The market is falling, the demand is in the off - season, the export situation is complex, and the market focuses on export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The cost support is not obvious, the supply increases, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [7] - Caustic soda: The supply increases, the demand is mixed, the market is accumulating inventory, and the price is under long - term pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The industry is accumulating inventory, the supply is high, the demand from the photovoltaic industry is weak, and the price is under pressure but unlikely to break the previous low [8] - Glass: The industry is accumulating inventory, the spot price is falling, the profit and capacity are slightly increasing, and the market is back to real - world trading [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the propylene market is experiencing slight price increases due to improved demand from downstream products and reduced supply from unexpected plant shutdowns [1] - Propylene prices are currently low, but the operational enthusiasm of production facilities is rising, which is expected to boost propylene demand [1] - Polyolefin futures are maintaining a low range, with polyethylene showing increased production due to fewer maintenance shutdowns and strong demand from agricultural and packaging sectors [1] Group 2 - The pure benzene market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices supported by improved transactions in Shandong, although downstream buying interest is declining [1] - Domestic production of pure benzene is increasing while import volumes are decreasing, leading to a slight reduction in port inventories and easing market pressure [1] - Styrene futures are showing weak fluctuations, with expectations of increased production from a major plant, which may negatively impact the market [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for propylene futures experienced a slight decline of 0.28%, with a current price of 6481.0 yuan, having reached a low of 6479.0 yuan during the trading session [1][2] - Market analysts from Zhonghui Futures suggest a price range for propylene at 6350-6550 yuan, indicating a bearish outlook due to weak downstream demand and increasing inventory levels [2] - According to Ruida Futures, China's propylene production for the week was 1.1636 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 thousand tons from the previous week, reflecting a decline of 0.66% [3] Group 2 - Downstream capacity utilization rates for propylene varied, with the highest increase seen in n-butanol production, while phenol-ketone production saw the largest decline due to maintenance shutdowns [3] - The overall market sentiment for propylene remains weak, with short-term support at 6400 yuan and resistance at 6600 yuan, as the industry is currently in a consumption off-season [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with ongoing market movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with some products facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply-demand imbalances, seasonal effects, and external market influences [2][3][5][6][7][8]. - Different chemical products have unique supply and demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5][6][7][8]. Section Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures showed a volatile trend, with prices likely to decline due to relatively abundant supply and limited demand support [2]. - Polyolefin futures declined. PE supply remained stable with some demand improvement in the agricultural film sector, while PP faced a seasonal demand slump and weakening market support [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures continued to be weak, but the market pressure is expected to ease in the third quarter, with a recommendation for monthly spread trading [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuated narrowly, with supply pressure outweighing demand growth, leading to a weak price trend [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined, with PTA facing supply pressure and a need for cost-driven price recovery in the short term and potential valuation improvement in the medium term [5]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall, with increasing supply and weakening demand [5]. - Short fiber and bottle chip prices followed the raw material decline. Short fiber may benefit from seasonal demand recovery, while bottle chip faces long - term overcapacity issues [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to fall, with short - term coastal inventory accumulation and a potential improvement in the medium term due to seasonal demand [6]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by seasonal demand gaps and policy uncertainties [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices showed a weak trend, with high supply and low demand leading to inventory accumulation [7]. - Caustic soda prices were under pressure, with high - load production and limited non - aluminum demand [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened as the industry started to accumulate inventory, with supply - demand pressure remaining [8]. - Glass prices were weak, with a slowdown in sales and inventory accumulation [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL and drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventories are being slowly digested. Future focus should be on the autumn restocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices decreased by 43, 34, and 37 respectively, with declines of - 0.58%, - 0.46%, and - 0.50%. For PP, the corresponding decreases were 23, 11, and 27, with declines of - 0.32%, - 0.15%, and - 0.38% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 85106, 897, and 211583 respectively; for PP, they were 72769, 690, and 188972 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 170116, 7879, and 326961 respectively; for PP, they were 190211, 10289, and 288497. The changes in open interest were 4000, 231, - 7196 for LL and - 935, 100, - 11205 for PP [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 9, 40, and - 49 respectively; for PP, they were 4, 22, and - 26. The previous spreads were 18, 37, - 55 for LL and 16, 6, - 22 for PP [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane were 2406 yuan/ton, 6245 yuan/ton, and 538 dollars/ton respectively, with previous prices of 2421 yuan/ton, 6250 yuan/ton, and 544 dollars/ton. The prices of PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film remained unchanged at 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (July 31), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.26 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.56 - $70.41. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.53 per barrel, down $0.71 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $72.4 - $73.53 [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex supply - demand relationships and price trends, with different products facing various challenges and opportunities. For example, some products are affected by new capacity releases, while others are influenced by changes in oil prices, downstream demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device overhauls in Shandong and new capacity releases, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases and inventory accumulates, though downstream demand is gradually warming up. For polypropylene, upstream inventory is transferred to the middle - link, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Night - time oil prices rise significantly, causing the price center of pure benzene to rebound. The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene both decrease, and the port inventory slightly accumulates. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. The cost - end support strengthens, but the supply - demand remains weak, with high - level supply and increasing port inventory [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon. PX's fundamental driving force is limited, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with a weakened processing margin. The new capacity of short - fiber is limited, and its price follows raw materials. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues in the long - term [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and its price is affected by short - term oil price strength. Overseas device disturbances are weakening as domestic supply recovers [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation rates are low, and the port inventory accumulates seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to oscillate within a range [6] - Urea futures open high and close low. Local agricultural demand is ending, and the downstream demand is weak. Production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the short - term market is likely to move within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise overhauls, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve [7] - Caustic soda runs weakly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali improves, and device operation rates increase. The long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to face pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. The spot market in Shahe cools down, and production and sales weaken. The industry profit recovers slightly, and long - term demand is poor [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polyolefin: Not rated - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: Not rated - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Overall, most chemical products' prices are facing various supply - demand situations, and the market trends are complex, with many products expected to move within a certain range, and some are affected by factors such as policies, seasons, and inventory [2][3][5] Industry Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, with supply expected to increase due to device restart, and limited support from supply - demand [2] - Polyolefin futures also fluctuate narrowly. PE demand improves slowly but supply increase is obvious; PP supply is expected to rise while downstream demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Unified benzene prices show a small rebound, with weak fundamental drive and a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - late third quarter [3] - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly, with high supply, accumulating inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate. PTA keeps accumulating inventory, and its mid - term processing margin has a repair drive [5] - Ethylene glycol may face a supply shift, with stable downstream demand and low - level port inventory [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices stabilize with raw materials. Short fiber has a mid - term positive outlook, while bottle chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are firm in oscillation. Port inventory shows unexpected destocking, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [6] - Urea futures run at a low level. Domestic demand is weak, and the market is likely to move within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC oscillates weakly. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and short - term prices may follow cost fluctuations, with limited long - term increase [7] - Caustic soda shows a strong trend. Some low - inventory enterprises raise prices, and the price is expected to face pressure in the long term [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillate narrowly. There is supply pressure in the long term [8] - Glass prices continue to fall. The market may return to reality - based trading, and long - term price increase is difficult without supply contraction [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of crude oil shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, with overall volatile movement. The supply-side OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan, and the impact of the increase is gradually emerging, with signs of weakening oil prices. However, the improvement in macro sentiment brought about by the peak demand season and the trade agreement between the US, Japan, and South Korea, as well as geopolitical factors, provide support for the downside of oil prices [1] - In the PX market, the PXN was $294/ton in the previous trading session (a month-on-month change of +$13.63/ton). Recently, the Asian PX load has remained basically stable, with little change in the fundamentals. The market mainly trades on macro sentiment. PX continues to have a low inventory pattern, but the spot floating price remains stable in the absence of more positive factors. Considering the rigid demand procurement of PX by new PTA plants, there is support for the downside of PXN. Attention should be paid to macro and crude oil trends [1] - In the TA market, the spot basis of the TA main contract is -7 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 195 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +30 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures market is 384 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +2 yuan/ton). With the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving factories, the inventory pressure of filament factories has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the basic supply and demand of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4%). Last week, driven by the price increase effect, terminal weaving factories concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and the inventory of filament factories decreased significantly. The operating loads of weaving and texturing, as well as filament and staple fiber, rebounded slightly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The pressure on staple fiber factories for cotton-type products is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low-melting products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. Attention should be paid to when demand will pick up in the future [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 114 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 78 yuan/ton). The demand side of PF has weak orders and high inventory. Affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, the willingness to hold PF is low. The near-month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - For PR, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 392 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +27 yuan/ton). The maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been completed, and it is expected that the load of bottle chips will remain stable in the short term. After the repair of the spot processing fee for bottle chips, it is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation [2] - In terms of strategies, for unilateral trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. Attention should be paid to the changes in the China-US negotiation tariff policy from July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month. For PX, several PX plants are under maintenance recently, and the negotiation of the PX floating price remains stable, with the overall inventory still at a low level. In addition, a new 3.2 million-ton PTA plant has been put into operation recently, and the short-term polyester load is strong, so it is expected that PXN will have support. For TA, with the concentrated replenishment of terminal weaving factories, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the fundamentals of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment. For PF, it is affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, and the overall willingness to hold is low. The near-month contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been implemented, and it is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will return to the range for oscillation after repair. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, short the PTA processing fee at high prices. There is no recommendation for cross-period trading [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][50][59][62][64] Detailed PF Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, regenerated cotton-type staple fiber load, original-regenerated spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester-cotton yarn processing fee [70][73][80][81][86] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - regenerated 3A-grade white bottle chip spread, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next-next month - base month) [88][90][99][102]