1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. PTA and PX 5 - 9 calendar spread is recommended for long position in the 5 - month contract and short position in the 9 - month contract [6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load and capital trends [6] - In the medium - long term, as the period of concentrated PTA capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - With the strong rise of PTA, filament factories' losses have intensified. Three mainstream filament manufacturers will implement an additional 10% production cut for POY this Wednesday, and continue the previous 15% production cut for FDY, with supervision and inspection arrangements [2] Market Analysis Cost Side - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil has rebounded. Venezuela has become the short - term market focus. However, in Q1 next year, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices. Recently, due to overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year, liquidity may disrupt the phased market [3] PX - The PXN was $352/ton two trading days ago (a month - on - month increase of $17/ton). PX units are operating smoothly. With good expectations for the first half of next year, PXN has risen significantly. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, PX operating rates can be effectively maintained even if some refineries' reforming units have operating fluctuations. Recently, the PX calendar spread has strengthened significantly supported by the delivery logic. There will be many PX maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is good. Meanwhile, with the strong polyester operating rate, PXN has support. In terms of blending for gasoline, the gasoline crack spread has not improved significantly, but the US has started to stockpile aromatics. Attention should be paid to capital trends and changes in downstream polyester load [3] TA - The spot basis of the TA主力 contract is -17 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 146 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the processing fee of the主力 contract on the futures market is 305 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). Recently, downstream raw material inventories have dropped to a low level, and the replenishment demand of polyester factories at low prices has increased significantly, driving the spot market basis to gradually strengthen. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and India's cancellation of BIS regulations has boosted PTA export demand. Supported by polyester load, the balance sheet will show inventory reduction in December, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than previously expected. In the long run, as the period of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4] Demand - The polyester operating rate is 91.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%). Recently, the weaving load has declined rapidly. Since the end of November, domestic orders have weakened rapidly, and grey fabric inventories have started to accumulate rapidly. Although samples for spring - summer orders next year or foreign trade orders have been made one after another, large - scale orders have not been placed yet. It is expected that the operating rate will decline more rapidly from late December. Attention should be paid to the placement of subsequent foreign trade orders. In terms of polyester, the polyester load remains strong, the profit pressure of filament is increasing, but the inventory pressure is acceptable. After the inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased, the load has rebounded. In the short term, the risk of a significant decline in the polyester load is not large, and it is expected to remain around 91%. The decline in the polyester load is expected to occur around January [4] PF - The spot production profit is 142 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan/ton). There are no significant changes in the fundamentals of direct - spun polyester staple fiber, and the inventory is at a low level. As raw material prices rise rapidly, the processing margin is under pressure. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn are average, the load has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly [5] PR - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is 423 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 9 yuan/ton). Polyester bottle - chip factories have raised prices following the increase in raw material prices, and the overall processing range has been compressed to below 500 yuan. In terms of fundamentals, the bottle - chip load remains unchanged, but as the inventory of bottle - chip factories has declined, the load has rebounded. In addition, a new 300,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant of Shandong Fuhai has started production. In the future, there is a possibility of an increase in bottle - chip supply. In the short term, the processing range of polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, and the market price will fluctuate with raw materials [5] Strategy Unilateral Strategy - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load [6] Cross - Variety Strategy - None [7] Calendar Spread Strategy - Go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 9 - month contract for PTA and PX [7]

【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯期价触及5500元/吨后回落,华东现货价格小幅调整,山东地炼出货良好。周度开工小幅下降，港口库 存继续回升。后市有统苯装置检修及下游提负预期,供需压力或有所缓解,但甲苯歧化效益好转,供应有增长 预期，供需面驱动有限。明年上半年去库预期下，中线考虑逢低介入月差正套。 两烯期货主力合约日内宽幅震荡，整体偏弱运行。基本面上，部分一体化企业丙烯外放情况仍存，加之局部前 朗复工企业丙烯商品量计划外放,市场整体供应相对充裕。生产企业库存压力可控,稳市意愿或相对明显。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅波动,熊市格局延续。聚乙烯方面,供应端高负荷运行,库存去化缓慢。 下游开工不足，采购以刚需为主,新增订单寥寥,需求端持续乏力。市场多持观望态度,成交谨慎,供需矛盾 短期难有改善。聚丙烯方面,近期聚丙烯栓修装置部分重启,现货货源供应仍较为充裕,且随着天气降温,下 游部分行业进入淡季,预期需求转弱,市场情绪仍偏谨慎。 | 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月23日 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not Rated - Methanol: Not Rated - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a weak trading opportunity) - Plastic: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish/bearish trend with the market moving in that direction) - PVC: Not Rated - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - PX: Not Rated - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - Ethylene Glycol: Not Rated - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - Glass: Not Rated - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - Bottle Chip: Not Rated - Propylene: Not Rated [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various products. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as raw material prices, production plans, and seasonal demand changes. [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed down. Supply is relatively abundant, and producers aim to stabilize the market. - Plastic and polypropylene futures fell sharply. For polyethylene, supply is high, inventory removal is slow, and demand is weak. For polypropylene, supply is still ample, and demand is expected to weaken. [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices were weak in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. Supply - demand pressure may ease, but supply growth is expected. Consider long - spread arbitrage on dips in the medium term. - Styrene futures closed up, maintaining a low - range consolidation. Supply may increase more than demand, and pure benzene may have a weak impact. [3] Polyester - PX prices rose due to supply reduction expectations. PTA's upward drive comes from PX, but polyester may reduce production in the medium term. - Some ethylene glycol plants plan to shut down, but long - term pressure remains, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - range. [5] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices follow raw materials, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. - Bottle chip demand is weakening, and the profit is still not ideal due to over - capacity. [6] Coal Chemicals - Methanol may oscillate weakly in the short term and has upward potential in the long term. - Urea supply exceeds demand, and the market may decline with weakening sentiment. [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fell. Supply pressure eases, but demand is low, and it may run at a low level. - Caustic soda oscillated. Supply pressure is high, and the industry will continue to compress profits. [8] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is large, and demand may decline. Consider a long - glass short - soda ash strategy. - Glass prices weakened. Inventory pressure is high, and the industry needs to reduce capacity. [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic futures market for paraxylene (PX) is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract showing significant price fluctuations [1][2] - As of the latest trading session, the main contract for paraxylene opened at 6856.0 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 7044.0 yuan and a low of 6852.0 yuan, resulting in a price increase of 2.82% [1] - Various institutions have provided insights on the future market trends for paraxylene, highlighting that the price is expected to follow fluctuations in international crude oil prices [2] Group 2 - According to Ruida Futures, the recent increase in international crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical events, is affecting the polyester market [2] - The current PX production stands at 748,200 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week, with a domestic PX capacity utilization rate of 89.21% [2] - The PTA production is reported at 1,411,100 tons, also stable week-on-week, with a PTA capacity utilization rate of 73.81% [2] Group 3 - Guotou Anxin Futures anticipates that new PX production capacity will be planned for the second half of next year, while maintenance in the first half is expected to lead to a supply decline, suggesting a bullish medium-term outlook for PX [2] - Southwest Futures notes that the PX-Naphtha price spread has seen some recovery, with short-process profits improving slightly, although PX operating rates have decreased marginally [2] - The short-term outlook for PX is expected to be volatile, with caution advised regarding potential price movements and macroeconomic policy changes [2]

| /// > 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月17日 | | 丙烯 | なな☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯苯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | РХ | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | 女女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 | 玻璃 | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 ...

本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 1 7 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：12月17日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨0.30%，基差走强至-72元/吨。 金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价4604元/吨，较前一交易日上涨10元/吨。成本端布伦特原油跌破60美元；供给端PTA产能利用率 73.81%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.86天，环比减少0.06天。 主力动向：空头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：PTA之前检修的产能将逐步开始重启，去库格局不可持续；下游聚酯开工维持高位超预期，预计终端需求或将转弱，关注 聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况。预计PTA市场依旧跟随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约：12月17日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605上涨0.67%，基差走弱至-107元/吨。 基本面：今日乙二醇华东地区 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On December 15, 2025, the chemical sector sentiment improved, and soda ash rebounded from a low level, with slightly increased trading volume. There are still concerns about oversupply in the market due to the recovery of previously reduced - capacity plants and the gradual release of natural soda ash production capacity in Alxa. The downstream market mainly purchases at low prices, and enterprises are cautious about prices. The current soda ash market is trading on the expectation of oversupply, but with prices at a low level and the main contract having completed the shift, it is expected that the short - term soda ash futures market may show a bottom - oscillating pattern [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On December 15, 2025, the soda ash futures fluctuated and rose. For the soda ash 2605 (SA605) contract, the opening price was 1,123 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,167 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,123 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1,156 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 1.4% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 936,500 lots, an increase of 276,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 915,800 lots, an increase of 25,400 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The report provides the daily quotes of soda ash futures contracts on December 15, 2025, including the opening, high, low, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of contracts such as soda ash 2601, 2605, and 2609 [4]. 3.2 Spot Market On December 15, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market prices in various regions remained unchanged compared to December 12, with no price fluctuations [5]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Chain - Related**: On December 15, 2025, the spot price of 5.00mm large - plate glass in the North China region was 1,040 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals - Related**: As of December 15, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 1.533 million tons, up 38,700 tons or 2.59% from last Thursday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 717,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 815,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,400 tons. Currently, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is still at a relatively high level in history [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook It is expected that the short - term soda ash futures market may show a bottom - oscillating pattern [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (suggesting a complex short - term trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are complex, with different products showing different trends. Some products face supply pressure, while others are affected by demand changes and cost factors. Overall, the market is volatile, and different products require different investment strategies based on their specific supply - demand situations [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. Polypropylene's profit inversion led to more plant shutdowns, increasing the expected external supply of propylene from some integrated enterprises. Downstream demand decreased, and the market transaction center moved down slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had a weak consolidation. For polyethylene, the supply was expected to increase, and downstream demand was weak. For polypropylene, production was expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand was also weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene futures fluctuated. The import pressure decreased slightly, and the port inventory was stable. The supply - demand pressure might be relieved, and it was expected to fluctuate at a low level. A mid - line long - spread arbitrage could be considered on dips [3] - Styrene futures had a narrow - range fluctuation. The cost side had no obvious positive drive, and although supply and demand were expected to increase, the inventory build - up expectation made it difficult to boost prices [3] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA declined slightly due to the falling oil price. Their weekly loads were stable, while polyester's load decreased slightly. PX was expected to be strong in the mid - line, and PTA's processing margin was expected to recover [4] - The price of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level due to supply contraction expectations. However, it was still under pressure in the new year due to expected inventory build - up and new plant commissions [4] - Short - fiber's load and inventory decreased simultaneously, and its long - term supply - demand pattern was relatively good. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and its cost was the main driving factor [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's 05 contract fluctuated strongly. The port was de - stocking, but it was expected to build inventory significantly if the unloading speed recovered. The short - term supply - demand pattern was difficult to improve significantly [5] - Urea futures had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply was at a high level, and the industry's supply - demand was loose, with prices maintaining a range - bound oscillation [5] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC prices rose. Supply remained high, and although exports improved, domestic demand was weak. It was expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [6] - Caustic soda prices had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply pressure was large, and it was expected to follow macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to energy - consumption regulations [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose. The supply pressure was large, and it was expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [7] - Glass was operating weakly. The industry was de - stocking, but it was difficult to maintain this trend. The long - term cold - repairing might continue due to profit compression [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are complex, with different products showing different trends. Overall, some products face weak demand and supply pressure, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, inventory levels, and macro - policies [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures rose and then fell, closing below the moving - average system. The expected increase in supply over demand will suppress market sentiment and push prices down. For plastics, imports are expected to increase, and demand support is weak. For polypropylene, production is expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene oscillated and rebounded, with a slight decrease in import pressure and stable port inventory. There is an expectation of de - stocking in the first half of next year. The main contract of styrene futures fluctuated narrowly, with no obvious positive drive from the cost side, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PX and PTA oscillated and declined last week due to falling oil prices. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol prices rebounded but are still under pressure. Short - fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakens, and bottle - chip demand fades [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated within a range. The port is de - stocking, but there is an expectation of significant inventory accumulation. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly. Urea prices oscillated weakly, with a high - level daily output and a loose supply - demand pattern [5] Chlor - alkali - PVC rose due to positive macro - policies, but demand is still weak. Caustic soda also rose, with high inventory and supply pressure, and demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose due to positive policies, with high production and supply pressure. Glass rose, but the de - stocking trend may not be maintained, and demand is insufficient [7]

2025.12.15-12.19 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场呈现稳中偏弱走势，区域价格表现分化。重碱价 格普遍小幅回落，轻碱则整体持稳。当前供应端趋增，下游需求持 续疲软，玻璃等行业采购意愿不强。煤炭价格下行削弱了成本支撑， 市场缺乏上行驱动。综合供需宽松格局，预计短期市场将延续窄幅 整理。纯碱期货同步走弱，受化工板块氛围偏空、成本支撑减弱及 自身疲弱基本面共同压制。供应增长预期强化，叠加下游玻璃市场 回调，导致期价屡创新低，整体维持低位震荡态势。 2 上周纯碱现货市场整体平稳，供需双弱下价格延续窄幅整理。 期货走势偏弱，供应回升与需求疲软共同压制盘面，高库存 压力下维持低位震荡。 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 本周策略建议 上周纯碱市场稳中偏弱，重碱价格回落，轻碱持稳。供应增 加而需求疲软，成本支撑减弱，短期预计窄幅整理。期货同 步走低，受板块氛围、成本下降及供需疲弱压制，维持低位 ...