Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - Methanol closed at 3296.00 with a weekly increase of 5.24%;焦煤 closed at 1219.00 with a 4.10% increase; PTA closed at 6876.00 with a 3.40% increase; copper closed at 95930.00 with a 1.26% increase; palm oil closed at 9768.00 with a 0.51% increase; rebar closed at 3124.00 with a 0.03% increase. Aluminum closed at 23935.00 with a -0.35% decrease; iron ore closed at 812.00 with a -0.43% decrease; corn closed at 2369.00 with a -0.75% decrease; silver closed at 17489.00 with a -0.77% decrease; glass closed at 1041.00 with a -1.23% decrease; ethylene glycol closed at 5279.00 with a -1.38% decrease; live pigs closed at 9965.00 with a -2.50% decrease; soybean meal closed at 2937.00 with a -3.04% decrease; gold closed at 998.66 with a -4.16% decrease; crude oil closed at 740.80 with a -4.24% decrease; PVC closed at 5615.00 with a -4.43% decrease; polysilicon closed at 35680.00 with a -5.52% decrease [2] A-shares - CSI 500 closed at 7737.61 with a -0.29% decrease; SSE 300 closed at 4502.57 with a -1.41% decrease; SSE 50 closed at 2837.31 with a -1.61% decrease [2] Overseas Stocks - FTSE 100 closed at 9967.35 with a -1.29% decrease; France CAC40 closed at 7701.95 with a 0.47% increase; Nikkei 225 closed at 53373.07 with a 0.49% increase; Hang Seng Index closed at 24951.88; S&P 500 closed at 6368.85 with a -2.12% decrease; Nasdaq Index closed at 20948.36 with a -3.23% decrease [2] Bonds - China's 5-year treasury bond yield was 1.56 with a 0.67bp increase; 10-year treasury bond yield was 1.82 with a 0.39bp increase; 2-year treasury bond yield was 1.31 with a -0.28bp decrease [2] Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index closed at 100.17 with a 0.67% increase; US Dollar mid-price was 6.91 with a 0.35% increase; Euro to US Dollar was 1.15 with a -0.50% decrease [2] Commodity Views Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: 1-2 month industrial enterprise profits increased by 15.2% year-on-year, high-tech manufacturing profits grew by 58.7%, policies are releasing signals for stable growth, and stock index valuations are at a low historical level. Bearish logic: Uncertainty in the Middle East, rising Fed rate hike expectations, decreased trading volume, and potential weak terminal demand [3] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Safe-haven sentiment supports bonds, loose liquidity, and policy support. Bearish logic: Strong economic resilience, rising inflation expectations, and reduced short-term rate cut expectations [3] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Military confrontation between Iran and the US, disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, slow inventory reconstruction, and supply-demand imbalance. Bearish logic: Release of strategic reserves, increased Russian oil supply, OPEC+ production increase plan, and potential for a ceasefire [4] Agricultural Products Sector Soybean Meal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: High US soybean export inspections, rising fertilizer prices, slow Brazilian soybean arrivals, and increased feed demand. Bearish logic: Increasing soybean arrivals in April, faster Brazilian soybean harvest, expected increase in new-season soybean planting area, and long-term supply surplus [4] Non-ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Attacks on aluminum plants in Bahrain and UAE, strong LME spot premium, rising domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates, and a strong technical rebound. Bearish logic: Global inflation, potential recession trading, high domestic aluminum inventories, and low aluminum rod processing fees [5] Chemical Sector Methanol - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 1 expects a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Decreased Iranian methanol plant operating rates, improved downstream enterprise profits, increased downstream olefin demand, and accelerated inventory reduction. Bearish logic: Uncertainty in the conflict and potential price corrections [5] Precious Metals Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Geopolitical risks, high oil prices, and potential capital inflows. Bearish logic: Reduced market liquidity, unclear Fed rate cut path, strong US Dollar, and gold sales by some countries [6] Black Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Rising energy prices, increased blast furnace operating rates, increased downstream inventory replenishment, and a favorable supply-demand pattern. Bearish logic: High domestic coking coal production, high Mongolian coal imports, and intense futures market competition [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the weakening of spot procurement sentiment, the decline of soybean inventory in domestic oil mills, the upcoming seasonal maintenance of oil mills, and the weakening of downstream inventory replenishment sentiment. In the short - term, the domestic market is affected by the possible recovery of Brazilian shipments, and the medium - term supply is expected to be large. The rapeseed meal futures are influenced by the decline of rapeseed purchase profit and the expected return of supply in the far - month, as well as the approaching of the aquaculture stocking season in South China and the increasing cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and in oil mills remains at a seasonal high, the oil mill crushing volume is rising, and the downstream feed mills are starting to replenish inventory. The warehouse receipts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are decreasing. In the long - term, the cost of imported soybeans remains high, the import profit is falling, and the procurement is slowing down. The supply gap of rapeseed meal is expected to be alleviated. The downstream pig production capacity reduction is slow, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: Spot sentiment has declined, and procurement has weakened. The overall soybean inventory in oil mills has decreased, the domestic oil mill crushing volume has increased, but there are seasonal maintenance plans. The downstream inventory replenishment has led to a weakening of trading sentiment. The US - China negotiation in April has been postponed, and the external market is concerned about the biodiesel policy meeting and the end - of - month planting area. The domestic market is affected by the possible recovery of Brazilian shipments, and the medium - term supply is large. The rapeseed futures are also under pressure [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase profit of rapeseed has declined, and the far - month supply is expected to return. The aquaculture stocking season in South China is approaching, and the cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal has increased due to the widening price difference with soybean meal [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - price Strategy**: For un - priced basis, consider pricing when the Brazilian premium starts to decline. For priced basis, be vigilant about the subsequent sales rhythm. In the medium - term decline cycle, continue to consider fixed - price procurement [19]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: After funds left the high - level, near - month funds began to shift to far - month contracts. The bottom of the far - month soybean meal is around 2,900 - 3,000, and the near - month is around 2,800 - 2,900. Hold or partially take profit on the soybean meal inter - month reverse spread [20]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: Hold the soybean meal inter - month reverse spread [21]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Take profit on the widening spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2605 contracts [21]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is 2,800 - 3,300, with a current volatility of 15.9% and a historical percentile of 46.1% over three years. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2,250 - 2,750, with a current volatility of 22.4% and a historical percentile of 66.7% over three years [22]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [22]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts have declined to varying degrees. The price of CBOT yellow soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [23]. - **Price Differences**: The price differences between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot - futures price differences, have changed. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal remained unchanged, while the futures price difference decreased [23]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs and pressing profits of soybeans and rapeseed from different regions have changed [24][26]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is 75%, still lagging behind last year. The US EPA has determined the renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027, increasing the blending volume of biomass - based diesel. Indonesia will promote the B50 biodiesel plan. The market expects an increase in the US soybean planting area in 2026 [26][27][28]. - **Negative Information**: Rising fertilizer and fuel prices may impact the Brazilian soybean production in 2026/27. The sales pace of new - season soybeans by Argentine farmers has slowed down. China has adjusted the quarantine standard for imported soybeans from Brazil. The market is concerned about the US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report [29][30]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The downstream physical inventory remains high, the trading sentiment has weakened, and the downstream has started to price previous contracts, with slower提货 [31]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monday: USDA export inspection report. - Wednesday: USDA planting intention report, USDA quarterly inventory report. - Thursday: USDA oilseed crushing report, USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product positions [34][36]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures weakened due to the expected recovery of Brazilian shipments and the departure of funds, following the external market and macro - sentiment. The rapeseed meal futures followed the soybean meal. The key profitable seats in soybean meal and rapeseed meal have reduced long positions, and the bullish sentiment in the soybean meal options has declined. The futures month - spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintains a B - structure, and the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has declined [35][41][47]. - **External Market**: The external market is affected by the Middle East situation, the postponement of the US - China negotiation, and is waiting for the planting area report. The management funds in the CBOT have returned to a bullish position [58][64]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in the US soybean production area has increased, while the profits in the South American production areas of Brazil and Argentina have decreased due to the decline in product prices. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed has slightly increased [70]. 3.4.2 Import - Export and Pressing Profit Tracking - For imported soybeans, if the Brazilian shipments recover, the estimated arrivals in April are 8.5 million tons and 10.5 million tons in May. The pressing profit of imported rapeseed from Canada has declined, but the supply is expected to improve [75]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **US**: The USDA March supply - demand report shows that the soybean planting area, harvest area, yield, production, export, and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season are the same as in February, with an increase in imports and crushing volume. The market expects an increase in the US soybean planting area in 2026 [96][97]. - **South America**: The USDA March supply - demand report shows that the expected soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season has decreased, while the production and export in Brazil remain unchanged [98]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Deduction - The arrival pressure of imported soybeans in the second quarter will suppress the price of the main M05 contract. After the tariff reduction between China and Canada, the supply pressure of rapeseed is also expected to return [99]. 3.5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean supply in the first quarter is still abundant, and the pressing volume is expected to remain high. After the previous high - level inventory replenishment of domestic soybean meal, the subsequent consumption is difficult to increase significantly [102]. 3.5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean inventory will decline in the first quarter and start to increase after the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in the second quarter, and the soybean meal inventory will follow [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European route) declined across the board. The main contract EC2606 closed down 6.74%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 7%. The latest SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index was 1752.54, up 59.28 points from last week, a 3.5% increase. The Middle East situation has become tense again, increasing uncertainty risks. Oil prices remain above $110 per barrel, leading to high container transportation costs. The European route has maintained a detour pattern and is not affected by the potential blockade of the Mandeb Strait, causing the futures price increase to reverse. The 15 - week average quoted price is about $2400 for large containers, equivalent to about 1800 points. Shipping companies may try to hold up prices in April, but the increase is expected to be small due to the supply - demand pattern. The eurozone's January unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and inflation accelerated unexpectedly. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but concerns about imported inflation have led to an increase in expectations of a tightening ECB policy. The market fully anticipates that the ECB will restart interest rate hikes in July. Overall, the geopolitical situation is undetermined, the detour expectation is gradually being realized, the fundamentals of the shipping industry have not changed, and the upward space in April is limited. Shipping companies' adjustment of freight rates has also decreased compared to before. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, and the continuation of the US - Iran conflict [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price was 1672.900, down 84.2; EC sub - main contract closing price was 2394.1, down 173.1. The spread between EC2604 - EC2606 was - 721.20, up 91.40; the spread between EC2604 - EC2608 was - 762.90, up 56.40. The EC contract basis was 79.64, up 46.80. The main contract position of EC was 5505, down 1524 [2] Spot Price - SCFIS (European route) (weekly) was 1752.54, up 59.28; SCFIS (US West route) (weekly) was 1826.77, unchanged; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1263.40, up 119.82. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1139.04, up 18.43; CCFI (European route) (weekly) was 1485.47, up 21.72. The Panama - type freight index (daily) was 2031.00, down 14.00; the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily) was 1756.00, down 14.00. The average charter price of Panama - type ships was unchanged; the average charter price of Cape - type ships was 22291.00, down 2304.00 [2] Industry News - US President Trump said that Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point cease - fire plan". The US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations in Iran. Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly all desalination plants if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term. The White House Press Secretary said Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran by April 6 and intends to call on Arab countries to bear the costs of the US military operations against Iran. Iran stated that if its power facilities are attacked, it will cause a power outage in the entire region. Iran's President said that ending the war should be based on safeguarding national dignity, interests, and security. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Iran has not had any direct negotiations with the US so far and that the so - called "15 - point cease - fire plan" is "excessive and unreasonable". Iran will not participate in the war - related meeting led by Pakistan. Iran's First Vice - President warned Trump not to send troops to Kharg Island, saying that whether the US can withdraw troops will not be under its control. The Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament said that it is a "major mistake" for the US and Israel to threaten Iran, and Iran will make any aggressor pay a price under the command of the Supreme Leader [2] Key Points of Attention - On April 1, there are a series of economic data releases, including France's March manufacturing PMI final value at 15:50, Germany's March manufacturing PMI final value at 15:55, the eurozone's March manufacturing PMI final value at 16:00, the UK's March manufacturing PMI final value at 16:30, the eurozone's February unemployment rate at 17:00, the US's March ADP employment number (in ten thousand people) at 20:15, the US's February retail sales monthly rate at 20:30, and the US's March ISM manufacturing PMI at 22:00 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2609 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,200 - 16,800 in the short - term, and the nr2606 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory of Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse showing de - stocking and the general trade warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory. The rubber price fluctuates, and downstream tire factories make cautious replenishments for mixed rubber [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. Some enterprises' pursuit of quarterly tasks supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but short - term maintenance arrangements of individual enterprises may slightly drag it down [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 71,598 lots, a decrease of 9,869 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 38,489 lots, a decrease of 4,554 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,303 lots, a decrease of 516 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,770 lots, an increase of 522 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,410 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 43,545 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,932 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 87 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 78.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.99 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.05 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 79.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, a decrease of 103,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly starting rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the weekly starting rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 19.3%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.89%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 27.9%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.9%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 1.18 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2] 3.7 Weather Conditions - In the first week of the future (March 29 - April 4, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. There is no red area north of the equator, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, with a weak impact on tapping. South of the equator, the red area is mainly concentrated in western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, with an enhanced impact on tapping [2] 3.8 Regional Production Situation - In the Yunnan Banna area in China, the weather is sunny, the glue prices are quoted differently, and there are signs of raw material grabbing. The Hainan area has started the new - year tapping season. In some southern and western areas, tapping has started sporadically, but the continuous high - temperature weather has restricted the tapping operation and glue output. Attention should be paid to the weather and rubber tree growth conditions at the beginning of tapping [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Cotton maintains a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual planting areas in April, especially the release of the U.S. cotton planting area tonight, as there is an expected tightening of supply in the new quarter [1] - The bottom - building trend of sugar is becoming clearer, and it may continue to fluctuate upward after experiencing the stage of maximum inventory pressure in the short - term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - StoneX keeps the estimate of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton production at 3.74 million tons, but caution is needed due to weather and growth conditions, especially in Mato Grosso where cotton is in the early growth stage and April rainfall will affect yield [1] - Trump's visit to China is scheduled for May 14 - 15, which is expected to stabilize Sino - U.S. trade and may lead to tariff cuts and U.S. cotton purchases [1] Sugar - From March 27 to 30, 10 sugar mills in Guangxi completed the sugar - pressing process. As of March 30, 38 sugar mills in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi have completed the process, with a total daily sugar - cane pressing capacity of 352,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 234,500 tons [2] - The estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,388 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,586 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,262 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 64 yuan/ton [2] - With the strengthening of the outer - market raw sugar and the weakening of the inner - market, the price difference between the inside and outside is narrowing, and the downward space of sugar is expected to shrink [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects short - term Shanghai nickel to fluctuate and adjust, with attention focused on the 135,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton range [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 134,780 yuan/ton, down 2,340 yuan; the 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 300 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,325 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 164,700 lots, down 11,544 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 52,417 lots, down 2,462 lots; LME nickel inventory is 281,526 tons, down 48 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,479 tons, up 818 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 17,610 tons, down 48 tons [3] - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 57,858 tons, up 685 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 137,050 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 2,170 yuan/ton, up 1,590 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 201.58 US dollars/ton, down 10.38 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 1223,900 tons, down 160,300 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 7,418,400 tons, down 508,200 tons [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 96.59 US dollars/ton, down 28.97 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,308.15 tons, down 5,231.79 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 831,700 tons, down 78,200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1,319,400 tons, down 538,700 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 626,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [3] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will launch optimized measures for tax - free shopping for outbound tourists and measures to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive aftermarket and leisure consumption such as cruise yachts and RV camping [3] - Due to the low base in January 2025, the import of automobiles from January to February 2026 was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% [3] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special consumption - boosting action to promote continuous consumption growth [3] - Fed Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance, but the Middle East conflict has suppressed risk sentiment. In the fundamentals, the cost of nickel ore in the Philippines has increased, the approval progress of Indonesian nickel ore production is slow, and Indonesia will postpone the plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports [3] Viewpoint Summary - On the smelting side, nickel - iron plants have cut production due to ore shortages, and the cost support will continue to be transmitted; the production profit of electrolytic nickel continues to shrink, and the production in China and India is also restricted [3] - On the demand side, steel mills' resumption of production has accelerated after the festival, but they still face production - cut pressure due to profit compression; the output of new - energy ternary precursors remains high but the growth rate has slowed, and the share - squeezing effect of lithium iron phosphate continues [3] - Domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the spot premium remains stable; overseas LME inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has been adjusted downwards [3] - Technically, the price has corrected while the position has increased, indicating greater divergence between bulls and bears [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is under downward pressure due to the smooth progress of the Brazilian soybean harvest, a slight increase in production, the continuation of the South American high - yield expectation, and the under - expected US soybean export data, along with the expansion of the oil - meal ratio. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For spot trading, it is advisable to actively set prices when the price is low. Attention should be paid to the release of the new quarterly US soybean estimated planting area tonight [1][2] - The palm oil market is expected to continue to be strong. The Indonesian president announced the promotion of B50 implementation to deal with the energy crisis caused by the Middle - East situation, which led to a significant increase in palm oil and Malaysian palm oil prices. However, the implementation of B50 in Indonesia still takes time, and the crude oil price is the main factor affecting the implementation schedule [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean and Bean Meal - As of March 26, 2026, the harvest progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean was 75%, up from 68% a week ago but still behind the 82% of the same period last year. The harvest is mainly concentrated in Rio Grande do Sul and the Matopiba region. The rainfall last week hindered the harvester operation to some extent, but it was beneficial to some soybeans in the filling stage in Rio Grande do Sul. AgRural predicted the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output to be 178.4 million tons, higher than the 178 million tons predicted in February, a 4.02% increase from the 171.5 million tons in 2024/25 [1] - As of the week ending March 26, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 586,427 tons, lower than the market expectation of 600,000 - 1,250,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 1,114,711 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 270,424 tons, accounting for 46.11% of the total. As of the week ending March 27, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 817,870 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 29,783,385 tons, compared with 40,774,757 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Vegetable Oil - According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 20, 2026 increased by 0.92%. Among them, the production in the Malay Peninsula decreased by 3.61%, in Sabah increased by 5.59%, in Sarawak increased by 9.87%, and in East Malaysia increased by 6.67% [2] - Affected by the rising international crude oil price due to the Middle - East conflict, the Indonesian government is re - evaluating its biofuel strategy. The Indonesian president announced that the mixing ratio of palm oil and diesel will be increased from 40% to 50% this year. The US biofuel report was neutral, with strong support at the bottom. The promotion of B50 in Indonesia led to a sharp rise in palm oil prices, but its implementation still takes time, and the crude oil price is the main influencing factor [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell. The import window for domestic refined copper spot opened, but the import profit margin significantly narrowed. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance led the market to bet on a possible interest - rate cut this year. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Iran conflict, remained a focus. Domestic downstream restocking was significant, driving the rapid reduction of social inventories. Short - term, it is recommended to operate within a range and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on copper prices in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The domestic alumina plant inventory was at a three - month high, and the inventory was turning to a cumulative trend. The high premium on the futures market accelerated the registration of warehouse receipts, pressuring alumina. Attacks on two large aluminum plants in the Middle East were expected to drive up overseas aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation situation showed signs of significant improvement, and a de - stocking inflection point was expected in April. In the short term, the influence of Middle - East geopolitics was dominant, and the pattern of weak Shanghai and strong London was difficult to quickly converge [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Under the dual influence of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight rates, nickel ore prices continued to strengthen, and the weekly nickel - iron quotes and transaction prices both increased. However, the primary nickel market showed great pressure. Due to the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quotas, there were short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment, as well as the expected additional quotas in July and the pressure from primary nickel inventory [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroscopically, Powell's dovish remarks led to market expectations of an interest - rate cut. Geopolitically, the US - Iran conflict situation was complex. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased by 2350 tons to 362,600 tons, Comex copper inventory decreased by 723 tons to 533,540 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 6105 tons to 230,971 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 303 tons to 13,055 tons. Domestic downstream restocking was significant, indicating strong domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures closed at 2900 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,745 yuan/ton, up 0.9%. Aluminum alloy closed at 23,585 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. The SMM alumina price rebounded to 2788 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot discount was 90 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina plant inventory was high, and the inventory was accumulating. Attacks on Middle - East aluminum plants were expected to boost overseas aluminum prices, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation situation was improving [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.64% to 17,325 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.23% to 136,220 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained at 281,574 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 104 tons to 57,173 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton. Due to tight supply and rising costs, there were short - term long - trading opportunities, but attention should be paid to inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 95,175 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan/ton to 85,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 574 yuan/ton to 3728 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 6105 tons, and the total social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 43,000 tons to 486,000 tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained at 16,400 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 75 tons to 283,000 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 404 tons to 52,867 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 8531 tons to 57,579 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased by 690 yuan/ton and 710 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2200 tons to 418,675 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4255 tons to 412,452 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 24,000 tons to 1.373 million tons, while the alumina social inventory decreased by 38,000 tons to 320,000 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1300 yuan/ton to 140,250 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged at 281,574 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 104 tons to 57,173 tons, and the total social nickel inventory increased by 1359 tons to 89,808 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.7% to 23,420 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 115,275 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 400 tons to 214,000 tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 2.5% to 364,570 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 55 tons to 8665 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 1642 tons to 8400 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [14][20][21]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [22][24][26]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [28][30][32]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [34][36][39]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [40][42][44]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily and Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [47]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He is the 18th Best Green Finance New Materials Futures Analyst from Futures Daily and Securities Times and an outstanding new analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 [47]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She is the 18th Best Green Finance New Materials Futures Analyst from Futures Daily and Securities Times [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation has further intensified, and crude oil has strengthened. The overall energy and chemical sector has strong support. Although the energy and chemical sector has had a significant price increase previously and has digested some of the positive news, in the later stage, it should still be treated as relatively strong after a correction. Today, the aromatics market pulled back from its high intraday. Attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average on the daily K - line level. The current situation between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil should be closely tracked, and the short - term risk is relatively high [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The 600,000 - ton Gulei plant was shut down for maintenance, and the load of individual plants was adjusted. The styrene output decreased by 3.12% to 360,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.32% to 71.79% [1] - Demand side: The operating rates of styrene downstream industries changed differently. The EPS operating rate decreased by 0.98% to 57.78%, the PS operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.7%, the ABS operating rate decreased by 2.1% to 67.4%, the UPR operating rate increased by 3% to 38%, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 75.65% [1] - Inventory: The styrene factory inventory decreased by 7.70% to 191,900 tons, the East China port inventory decreased by 10.88% to 156,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 3.77% to 51,000 tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Iranian military attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker full of oil in the anchorage area of Dubai Port, causing damage to the hull and a fire, marking an escalation of shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4, with an expected value of 50.1 and a previous value of 49. In March, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. After running below 50% for two consecutive months, it returned to the expansion range, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity [2] - US media reported that Trump was willing to end the Iran war with the Strait of Hormuz closed [2] - Iran insisted that it had not negotiated with the US since the war broke out. The Iranian parliament approved the collection of tolls for the strait, which must be paid in the Iranian local currency [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The Middle East situation has further intensified, and crude oil has strengthened. The overall energy and chemical sector has strong support. After a previous significant price increase and partial digestion of positive news, it should still be treated as relatively strong after a correction. The aromatics market pulled back from its high intraday. Attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average on the daily K - line level. The current situation between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil should be closely tracked, and the short - term risk is relatively high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the daily market data of stock index futures, including the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis information of IM, IF, IC, and IH contracts, as well as the trading volume and position data of major member seats [4][22][42][58]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IM (CSI 1000 Index Futures) - **Daily Market**: The main contract (IM2606) fell 1.69% to close at 7379.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 233,473 lots, a decrease of 3,452 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 393,494 lots, an increase of 6,672 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 240.45 points, an increase of 18.08 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -14.16% [4][5]. - **Major Member Seats**: The trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of major member seats such as CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Haitong Futures are presented, along with their changes from the previous day [17][19][21]. IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) - **Daily Market**: The main contract (IF2606) fell 0.77% to close at 4375.8 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 97,664 lots, an increase of 2,925 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 257,846 lots, an increase of 4,198 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 74.25 points, an increase of 3.7 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -7.37% [22][23]. - **Major Member Seats**: The trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of major member seats such as CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures are presented, along with their changes from the previous day [37][39][40]. IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) - **Daily Market**: The main contract (IC2606) fell 1.73% to close at 7425 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 166,503 lots, an increase of 6,990 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 294,843 lots, an increase of 13,419 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 192.33 points, an increase of 0.79 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.26% [42][43]. - **Major Member Seats**: The trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of major member seats such as CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Haitong Futures are presented, along with their changes from the previous day [53][54][56]. IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) - **Daily Market**: The main contract (IH2606) fell 0.33% to close at 2804 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 47,813 lots, an increase of 1,832 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 101,567 lots, an increase of 55 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 22.12 points, a decrease of 1.31 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -3.43% [58][59]. - **Major Member Seats**: The trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of major member seats such as CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures are presented, along with their changes from the previous day [72][74][76].