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广发期货《黑色》日报-20250616
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 05:52
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - After the steel price rebounded last week, there are signs of weakness again. Finished steel production has decreased significantly, apparent demand continues to decline, and inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - position operation, and the previously suggested short positions in hot - rolled coils and rebar should be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has continued to increase, reaching a high level this year. The arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron has slightly declined, and the inventory has increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be treated with a short - position mindset. The price range may move down to 670 - 720 [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is weakly stable. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors is decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at 1380 - 1430 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is still weak. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at 800 - 850 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the production has slightly declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The cost may decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. For ferromanganese, the supply pressure still exists, and the price is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions have declined or remained stable, while futures prices have mostly increased. The basis and spreads have also changed [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products has changed, and the profit of most steel products has decreased, except for the rebar profit in North China, which has increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remains unchanged, the production of five major steel products has decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has generally decreased. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume and arrival volume of iron ore have increased, while the demand for molten iron has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke are stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coking profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coke has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors has decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal are mostly stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coal mine profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coking coal is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have increased, and the spot prices of some varieties are stable. The basis and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions has changed slightly, and the profit situation is not optimistic [7]. Supply and Demand - The production of ferrosilicon has decreased, and the demand is weak. The production of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the demand has also declined [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has increased [7].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250612
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:53
Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Recent steel prices rebounded, basis weakened, and spot entered a weak off - season. Demand is expected to remain weak due to the off - season and tariff suppression. Iron ore shipments are surging this month, and the iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of black metals. It is recommended to focus on opportunities to lay out short positions on rebounds, referring to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average of the October contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices remained stable or had small increases. For example, the spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 11 yuan to 3098 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of steel billets increased by 20 yuan to 2920 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 18 yuan to 147 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 7.0 tons to 218.5 tons, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.2 tons to 328.8 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 tons to 1363.8 tons. The rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 tons to 570.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 tons to 340.6 tons [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.5, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 tons to 882.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 tons to 229.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.0 tons to 320.9 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the upside of iron ore due to the decline of pig iron output from a high level, increased supply, and administrative reduction. In the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. Considering the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the price range of iron ore may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most iron ore types decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 5.5 to 765.6 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 58.0 to 58.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 72.8 tons to 2609.3 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 tons to 10313.8 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons, and the weekly average daily ore - dispatching volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.7 tons to 314.0 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 tons to 7258.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 682.2 tons to 8601.9 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 20.3 tons to 13846.94 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 tons to 8690.2 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak and stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The spot may have one more round of price cuts but is approaching the phased bottom. The supply is affected by environmental protection, and the demand is showing a trend of reaching the peak and then declining. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coke on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 9 to 1154, and the 09 contract of coke increased by 7 to 1356. The 09 basis decreased by 7 to - 39 [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 987.0 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 tons to 127.0 tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 tons to 645.8 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 214.2 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The decline of the spot price of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen improved transactions. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 970, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 10 to 828. The 09 contract of coking coal decreased by 2 to 784, and the 01 contract increased by 2 to 793 [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 tons to 873.0 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 tons to 445.0 tons. The import of Mongolian coal has a slow - down in price decline, and the import profit of seaborne coal is still negative [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons. The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased slightly by 0.1 to 271.5 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons to 818.9 tons, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 tons to 770.9 tons, and the port inventory increased by 9.9 tons to 313.0 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand is affected by both steel and non - steel sectors. The cost is short - term stable, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure remains, and the manganese ore supply and price have certain fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5184, and the spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to 5100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.1 to 5603.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit increased by 4.1 to - 173.8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 1.2 tons to 9.7 tons, and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises increased by 2.3 to 32.8% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 tons to 68 tons [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 56 to 5486, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5430 yuan/ton [6]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased by 9.5 tons to 61.7 tons, and the arrivals at domestic ports increased by 29.5 tons to 67.8 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese output increased by 0.2 tons to 17.2 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.3 to 35.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 tons to 12.6 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 407.0 tons [6].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250611
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:27
| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月11日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3110 | 3110 | O | 140 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | 230 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3220 | 3220 | 0 | 250 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2973 | 2980 | -7 | 137 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2974 | 2981 | -7 | 136 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2970 | 2979 | -d | 140 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | 105 | アロ/『屯 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3120 | 3120 | 0 | 35 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250610
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:24
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel mills' production remains high with a slight decline, but apparent demand continues to fall, and hot-rolled coil inventory starts to accumulate. Real demand decline is being realized, and the overall demand expectation is still weak due to the off - season and tariff impacts. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Global iron ore shipments are increasing, reaching a high level this year, and the arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron is relatively stable, and the inventory is still in a destocking pattern. In the short - term, the price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view in the medium - to - long term [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures show a volatile trend with a divergence between futures and spot. The third round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of one more round of cuts. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at an appropriate time [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures are expected to rebound from the bottom, but the spot fundamentals are still bearish. The supply is relatively high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at a high price [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon production is increasing, and the supply pressure is rising during the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved slightly. The ferromanganese supply pressure also exists, and the demand is weak. The cost side should focus on coal price changes [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show small fluctuations. For example, the price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remains unchanged, while the cost of some steel products has changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions has increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The production of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, and the rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a significant decline of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, a 2.9% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 to 1363.8, and the rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 to 570.5, a 1.8% decrease. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 to 340.6, a 2.4% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 10.2, a 1.8% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a 3.5% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract for most iron ore powders decreased significantly [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased, while the prices of some iron ore indexes increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, a 17.9% increase, and the global shipment volume increased by 242.3 to 3431.0, a 7.6% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a 0.3% decrease, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, while the price of quasi - first - grade coke in Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 to 987.0, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, a 14.0% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a 1.4% decrease [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton. The 09 contract price of coking coal increased slightly [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price decreased by 3.2 to 193 US dollars/ton [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 to 873.0, a 1.4% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 to 445.0, a 1.9% decrease [5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased slightly, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 to 818.9, a 3.2% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 to 770.9, a 2.0% decrease [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price increased by 70 to 5174, a 1.4% increase, and the ferromanganese主力合约 price increased by 14 to 5552, a 0.3% increase [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 11.2 to 5619.8, a 0.2% decrease, and the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased slightly [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 1.2 to 9.7, a 14.6% increase, and the ferromanganese production remained relatively stable [6]. Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon - chromium products increased by 0.2 to 17.2, a 1.2% increase, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferromanganese increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 6.8, a 9.8% decrease, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises for ferromanganese increased slightly [6].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:观点与策略-20250610
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:32
2025年06月10日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金:非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:技术突破 | 3 | | 铜:伦铜现货走强,支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝:横盘震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝:继续下行 | 7 | | 锌:社库累库,价格承压下行 | 9 | | 铅:短期供需双弱,中期偏多 | 10 | | 锡:止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍:现实支撑与弱势预期博弈,镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢:负反馈传导减产增加,钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂:矿价企稳,偏弱震荡延续 | 15 | | 工业硅:上行空间有限,以逢高空配为主 | 17 | | 多晶硅:盘面以空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石:震荡反复 | 19 | | 螺纹钢:需求预期走弱,低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板:需求预期走弱,低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤:需求仍待释放,宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木:震荡反 ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250609
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:58
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Current steel prices are affected by the rebound of coking coal. Steel mills are reducing production, hot-rolled coil inventory is increasing, and apparent demand is declining. Overall demand is expected to remain weak due to off - season demand and tariff - affected exports. Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with attention to short - selling opportunities around 3000 for the October contract of rebar and 3150 for the October contract of hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, demand remained relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. In the future, terminal demand for finished products may weaken, but iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient. Iron ore supply pressure will increase. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate in the range of 700 - 745 [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week, with a divergence between futures and spot prices. The spot market of coking coal was weak, and the market was still in a state of oversupply. Coke futures also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 6. The supply - demand pattern of coke was still loose in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 2509 contracts of both coking coal and coke and short after the rebound [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand remained relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction began to emerge as supply increased. For ferromanganese, supply increased slightly this week, and supply pressure reappeared under weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see for both, with attention to the price changes of coal [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed small increases. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3100 to 3120 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar rose from 2952 to 2975 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2880 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions increased, and profits of rebar also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, a decrease of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a decrease of 3.1%; hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, an increase of 2.9%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.4, an increase of 4.9%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a decrease of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 to 229.0, a decrease of 7.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased from 122.4 to 63.6, a decrease of 48.0%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly [3]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, an increase of 17.9%. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8, an increase of 9.8%. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3, a decrease of 3.6% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Price and Spread - For coking coal, the price of the 09 contract rose by 22 to 779, an increase of 2.8%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 20 to 793, an increase of 2.5%. For coke, the price of the 09 contract rose by 15 to 1357, an increase of 0.6%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 10 to 1368, an increase of 0.7% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of coke decreased slightly, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0% [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke in all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, an increase of 14.04%, and the inventory of coke in 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 92 to 5104, a decrease of 1.8%, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 56 to 5538, an increase of 1.0% [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5631.0. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to - 329.0, a decrease of 17.9% [7]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased by 1.2 to 9.7, an increase of 14.6%. The weekly output of ferromanganese increased slightly. The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained relatively stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 68.7, a decrease of 9.8%, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 to 18.7, an increase of 0.34% [7].
商品研究晨报-20250609
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:30
2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金:非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:技术突破 | 3 | | 铜:美元回升,限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝:区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝:继续下行 | 7 | | 锌:上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅:低位运行 | 10 | | 锡:止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍:现实支撑与弱势预期博弈,镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢:负反馈传导减产增加,钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂:短期进口减量,长期供需过剩,震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅:情绪见顶,盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅:现货具备下跌驱动,盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石:预期反复,宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢:低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板:低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭:三轮提降落地,宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤:事故扰动,宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤:需求仍待释放,宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 27 | | ...
黑色建材日报:悲观情绪退坡,黑色底部反弹-20250605
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:55
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The pessimistic sentiment in the black commodities market is receding, leading to a bottom - up rebound. The glass and soda ash markets show a divergence between futures and spot prices due to cautious downstream procurement. The double - silicon market has a stabilized sentiment with alloy prices oscillating [1][3]. - Glass has a severe supply - demand contradiction with high inventory and lack of substantial production cuts. Soda ash faces continuous supply - demand surplus pressure and strong de - stocking pressure [1]. - For silicon manganese, low production due to profit issues and high inventory suppress prices, while manganese ore cost provides support. Silicon iron production is at a low level, but demand has some resilience, and short - term prices are affected by costs [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures rebounded significantly yesterday, but spot trading was weak with mainly rigid demand procurement and low speculative sentiment. Soda ash: Futures rose sharply following black commodities, while downstream procurement was cautious with mainly rigid demand replenishment [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction is severe, high inventory suppresses prices, and there is no substantial production cut. Long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity, and later changes in production lines and raw material prices should be monitored. Soda ash: With new production projects coming online, the supply - demand surplus persists, and there is strong de - stocking pressure. Prices will be under pressure until the surplus situation eases, and attention should be paid to intermittent production line maintenance and new production [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating. Soda ash: Oscillating. No cross - period or cross - variety strategies are recommended [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: Futures oscillated and rebounded with black commodities yesterday. The spot market was stable, and factories were reluctant to sell at low prices. The price in the northern and southern markets was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton. Silicon Iron: Futures oscillated. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: Production is at a low level due to industry profits, iron - water production has slightly declined but remains high, and demand has some resilience. High factory inventory and registered warehouse receipts suppress prices, while low - level manganese ore port inventory has slightly increased, and falling manganese ore prices support alloy costs. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side. Silicon Iron: Production has dropped to the lowest level in recent years due to enterprise losses, high iron - water maintains demand resilience, factory inventory de - stocking is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and short - term prices are affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating. Silicon Iron: Oscillating [4].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250603
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:49
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - Although the apparent demand has recovered, molten iron production has been decreasing, and the output of finished steel products will follow suit. With the expectation of weakening demand, the apparent demand is likely to decline rather than increase in the future. Steel prices have been falling, reflecting the negative feedback logic under the expectation of declining demand. The continuous decline in molten iron production will suppress iron ore prices. - The direct export of steel will help digest production, and the short - term inventory pressure is not significant, which supports the steel production at a relatively high level. However, the cost support is weak, and the decline in carbon elements has dragged down steel prices. Considering the worse demand in the second half of the year, the overall trend is bearish. The iron ore is still in the destocking phase, and its price is relatively resilient, so the negative feedback trading may fluctuate. Once iron ore starts to accumulate inventory, the downward space for steel prices will expand [1]. Iron Ore - Last week, the global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline in shipments from Brazil and non - Australia and Brazil regions. The arrival volume remained at a relatively low level. On the demand side, molten iron production continued to decline, and the profitability of steel mills also decreased slightly due to the marginal weakening of downstream demand in the off - season. - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline as the ore handling volume remained at a high level in the same period of history and the arrival volume was low in recent weeks. The steel mill inventory decreased significantly, mainly in large - scale steel mills. - Looking ahead, the terminal demand for finished products faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, but there is still some resilience. It is expected that the decline in molten iron production will be limited. Overseas mines will increase shipments to meet the fiscal year target, and the arrival peak has not yet come, so the supply pressure of iron ore will increase. In the short term, there is obvious resistance above the iron ore price, but the risk of inventory accumulation is limited due to the resilience of terminal demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron production [3]. Coke - Last week, the coke futures continued to break through the support level. On the spot side, the second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on May 28, and there are expectations of two or more rounds of price cuts in the future considering the weak situation of coking coal. - On the supply side, due to the decline in downstream molten iron production and the slowdown in coke sales, the coke production decreased slightly, and the coking profit improved due to the concession of coking coal prices. On the demand side, the molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day in May and decreased slightly last week, and the blast furnace operation rate showed signs of peaking. - In terms of inventory, the coke inventory in coking plants decreased slightly, the port inventory continued to decline, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The downstream replenishment demand has weakened due to the general caution in the market. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract after a rebound and use the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke (equal value) [4]. Coking Coal - Last week, the coking coal futures continued to break through the support level. On the spot side, coking coal prices continued to decline. The futures market was more pessimistic than the spot market, showing a deep discount structure, with high hedging pressure and weak willingness of long - position holders to support the price. - The market auction was cold, and the transaction prices of various coal types decreased slightly. The supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, the production of domestic coal mines decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The price of Mongolian coal broke through the support level, and the import profit of seaborne coal remained negative, with prices stable or slightly decreasing. - On the demand side, the coking plant operation rate decreased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace molten iron production showed signs of peaking. Downstream users mainly replenished inventory on a need - to - basis. As the peak season of steel production is approaching the end, the demand may decline. The coal mine inventory is high, with pressure to reduce prices for sales, and the port inventory has increased again, while the downstream inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract after a rebound and use the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal (equal value) [4]. Ferrosilicon - On the supply side, due to the protection of a large factory in Inner Mongolia, the ferrosilicon production continued to shrink. With the continuous decline in spot prices, the losses of manufacturers increased, and the supply pressure remained. The cost may also decline, and the valuation continued to decrease. - On the demand side, the molten iron production showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand faced marginal weakening in the off - season. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. In terms of exports, the export profit of ferrosilicon increased slightly as the domestic price decreased faster than the overseas price, and the export volume remained stable. - In June - July, the electricity price is expected to be adjusted downward during the power spot settlement pilot period, and the overall cost may bottom out. Looking ahead, the supply of ferrosilicon is expected to be weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Silicomanganese - The global manganese ore shipments decreased slightly last week, and the floating inventory was concentrated in South Africa and Ghana mines. The future arrival volume of manganese ore will remain normal. In June - July, the electricity price is expected to be adjusted downward during the power spot settlement pilot period, and the overall cost may bottom out. - On the supply side, the production in Inner Mongolia increased significantly recently, and the profitability of manufacturers decreased slightly. On the demand side, the molten iron production showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand faced marginal weakening in the off - season. The demand for non - steel products, such as metal iron, was also weak. - The contradiction in the silicomanganese market is limited, but there is still a risk of cost decline. Coupled with the negative feedback expectation of demand in the off - season in the black - series market, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products showed different trends. For example, the price of some steel products remained unchanged, while others increased or decreased. The price of rebar 05 contract increased by 147 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 41 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of different steel products also varied. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 104 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was 26 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 243.6 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 60,000 tons, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 329,000 tons [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for steel products showed some recovery. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 92,000 tons, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 16,000 tons [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The price of PB powder decreased by 4.4 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 55.9 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 120,000 tons, and the global shipment volume decreased by 159,100 tons [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1,700 tons, and the national pig iron monthly output decreased by 271,100 tons [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 7,800 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 171,200 tons [3]. Coke Price and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coke 09 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons [4]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1,700 tons [4]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 8,100 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 5,700 tons [4]. Coking Coal Price and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1,600 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 1,400 tons [4]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 20,300 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 19,400 tons, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 12,000 tons [4]. Ferrosilicon Price - The price of ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Gansu decreased by 50 yuan/ton [5]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Guangxi decreased by 27 yuan/ton, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.4 tons, and the production enterprise operation rate remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged, and the steel - making demand decreased slightly [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decreased by 1.6 days [5]. Silicomanganese Price - The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Ningxia decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Guizhou decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The silicomanganese production increased by 0.5 tons, and the operation rate increased by 2.9% [5]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand increased by 0.1 tons, and the steel - making demand increased slightly [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.5 tons, and the average available days of silicomanganese decreased by 0.2 days [5].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250603
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:51
Overall Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Global trade tensions are escalating, leading to increased short - term volatility in global markets. The market has a mixed attitude towards the trade situation, with optimism about trade dialogues but also concerns about tariff hikes. In China, the May PMI data shows economic expansion, yet US trade restrictions pose a short - term dampening effect on domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. For example, stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a cautious approach to long - positions; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: US "steel tariffs" and EU's potential counter - measures, along with intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict, have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market remains optimistic about US trade dialogues, and the US dollar index is generally weak. - Domestic: China's May PMI data indicates economic expansion, but US restrictions in semiconductor and other fields, as well as tariff hikes, pose short - term pressure on domestic risk appetite. Asset suggestions include short - term cautious long - positions for stocks, high - level observation for bonds, and different trading stances for various commodity sectors [2]. Stocks - Affected by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic stocks have declined slightly. The May PMI data is positive, but US trade restrictions and tariff hikes suppress domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on US trade policies and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals showed a volatile pattern, with COMEX gold down 1.33% to $3313.1 per ounce and silver down 1.68%. Fed's cautious stance, Trump's tariff policies, and geopolitical risks have affected the market. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be strong, and in the long - term, the upward logic remains solid. Attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the holiday, the spot market was stable, but the futures price declined. During the holiday, trade conflicts increased risk aversion. In the short - term, the steel market is expected to be weak as supply remains high while demand is affected by trade tensions [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holiday, prices were weak. Although iron - water production has declined, the market is divided on its future path. Supply may increase in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Before the holiday, prices were flat. Demand is fair, but silicon manganese is in an industry - wide loss, and silicon iron has weak downstream procurement. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase is in line with expectations, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran, along with Canadian wildfires, have pushed up oil prices [8]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices are expected to follow. Demand is currently average, and inventory depletion has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The price is high, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a slight decline later due to potential demand reduction [9]. - **PTA**: Downstream production has decreased, and supply is expected to increase, leading to a weakening structure in the future [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has contracted, but downstream production cuts limit inventory depletion. The price will slightly increase [9]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a weak and volatile pattern, with concerns about downstream production and order release [9]. - **Methanol**: Import and port inventory are increasing, and prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The price is likely to move downward [10]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand situation is expected to worsen, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market expects a 50% tariff on copper, driving up prices. The copper ore supply is tight, but demand may decline in the short - term, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. - **Aluminum**: The 50% tariff on aluminum has led to a slight increase in prices. Supply is high, and demand is expected to decline, but there is still an export rush effect. It is recommended to observe [12]. - **Tin**: High tariffs, potential supply increases from Myanmar, and seasonal demand decline pose pressure on prices, but it has stabilized after a significant drop [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is supported by a weak US dollar but faces challenges such as good planting conditions in the US, high Brazilian inventory, and slow sales due to trade tensions. It may maintain a weak range - bound trend [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills' inventory is expected to recover, and the lack of upward momentum in US soybeans affects soybean meal. Rapeseed meal has supply uncertainties. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may shrink [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: During the holiday, oils and fats were under pressure. The energy market is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, and domestic oils may continue to decline after the holiday, with the soybean - palm oil spread likely to remain inverted [14]. - **Hogs**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term correction in near - month contracts [15]. - **Corn**: New wheat listing may replace some corn demand, but in the long - run, corn is likely to rise, and it will maintain a range - bound trend [15].