Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - UBS has raised its gold price target by $100 to $3,600 per ounce by the end of March 2026, and by $200 to $3,700 per ounce by the end of June 2026, maintaining the same forecast for September 2026 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Russell Investments suggests that the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting may temper expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a possibility of a 25 basis point cut in September rather than 50 basis points [1] - CICC indicates that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious in its rate cut decisions, with internal divisions and external pressures suggesting that significant cuts are unlikely due to concerns over "stagflation" [4] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Currency - Deutsche Bank warns that U.S. tariffs may increase inflation and weaken the dollar, as companies might pass on tariff costs to consumers, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending [2] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce reports that U.S. tariffs on European and UK goods have caused government bond yield curves to steepen, as investors demand higher compensation for holding long-term bonds [1] Group 4: Economic Growth Risks - Fitch Ratings states that higher U.S. tariffs could threaten India's projected economic growth of 6.5% for the fiscal year, particularly affecting sectors like IT services and construction if tariffs remain elevated [3] - CICC notes that the overall valuation of A-shares is reasonable and not overvalued, with the Shanghai Composite Index's dynamic P/E ratio at around 12.2 times, indicating a moderate valuation compared to global markets [6] Group 5: Financial Market Trends - CITIC Securities reports a significant increase in bank wealth management products, with a growth of approximately 2 trillion yuan to 32.67 trillion yuan by the end of July 2025, driven by high-interest deposits maturing [8] - CITIC Securities also highlights that the price of rare earths is expected to stabilize and potentially increase, supported by strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and consumer electronics [9]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term range oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [6] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the near future, and then pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [5] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center of gravity [4] Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price was operating at a high level. Macro data kept the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged, and traders were waiting for the result of the "Putin - Trump meeting". The US dollar jumped on Thursday and gave back most of the gains on Friday [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China was 110.32 million tons per year, and the total operating production capacity was 91.79 million tons per year. The weekly operating rate of alumina increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% [4] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%, showing a mild recovery trend. In sub - fields, the operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil increased, while that of recycled aluminum decreased slightly [4] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [4]

在中加两国的经贸关系一直波动不断的背景下，北京于8月15日正式向世界贸易组织（WTO）提起诉讼，指控加拿大对钢铁进口的限制措 施违反了国际贸易规则。这一举动不仅凸显了两国在钢铁领域日益加剧的摩擦，还表明了更广泛的贸易壁垒问题。毫无疑问，这标志 着"争端再度升级"，尤其是在几天前，中国已经对加拿大的油菜籽实施了临时反倾销措施。 这一系列争端的升级迅速对两国经济产生了影响，最明显的就是钢铁行业的直接对抗。加拿大政府在今年7月宣布扩大进口钢铁关税配 额，并对来自非美国国家、含有中国熔炼或浇铸钢铁成分的产品征收25%的附加税。中方强烈反应，认为这一举措是一种典型的保护主 义，目的是将美国对加拿大钢铝征收50%关税的压力转移到中国。据加拿大工业部的数据，预计2024年，加拿大的钢铁进口总额将超过 160亿美元，其中约10%来自中国，而其中的91%将出口到美国。这表明，加拿大的措施虽然旨在保护本国钢铁产业，但却有可能破坏中加 双边贸易总额高达1200亿加元的贸易格局。更为复杂的是，这一政策还扩展到了下游产品领域，例如电动汽车的零部件，这无疑加剧了两 国在新兴产业上的竞争。 但其实，争端的根本原因远不止钢铁领域。回顾去年的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic household RMB loans dropped to 2.65%, and the growth rate of household medium - and long - term loans also fell to 3.43%. From January to July, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to 1.60%, about 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June. The long - term Treasury bond yield continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of more real - estate support policies [2][10]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3% (the highest level since February this year) and a month - on - month increase of 0.9% (the largest increase since June 2022). The follow - up pressure transmission needs attention. The Fed's scenario of more than 2 interest rate cuts this year still requires the decline of inflation data as support [2][12]. - The year - on - year decline of the production material price index continued to narrow. From August 11th to 15th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.17% month - on - month and 25.69% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 7.22% month - on - month and decreased by 26.99% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline of the production material price index narrowed to 5.29% [2]. - From August 1st to 14th, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 181,000 square meters, while in August 2024, it was about 232,000 square meters per day [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - In July, the growth of domestic household loans and fixed - asset investment slowed down. The long - term Treasury bond yield should have faced downward pressure but continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of real - estate support policies. The new - issued mortgage rate in the second quarter decreased again, and the adjusted new - issued mortgage rate after tax and capital cost continued to decline, but the trend slowed down [2][10][11]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations. If the upstream price - increase pressure can be transmitted to consumer prices, it may form re - inflation pressure; otherwise, it may affect corporate inventory investment [2][12]. - Various high - frequency data showed different trends. For example, food prices, consumer goods prices, energy prices, and real - estate transaction data all had their own changes in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons [15][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple high - frequency data were compared with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the comparison between the year - on - year change of LME copper spot settlement price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value and PPI, and the comparison between the year - on - year change of crude steel daily output and the year - on - year change of industrial added value [17][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Some important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe were presented, including the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied interest - rate hike/cut prospects of the US Federal Funds Futures and the ECB's overnight index swaps [92][94][103]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data were analyzed, with indicators such as the monthly average of crude steel daily output and the production material price index showing their respective seasonal changes [105]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were presented [160].

Group 1 - The Trump administration has announced an expansion of the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which will include hundreds of derivative products, effective August 18 [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 407 product codes to the tariff list due to their steel and aluminum content, with specific tariffs applicable to non-steel and aluminum components [1] - The tariffs on steel and aluminum are the highest since the 1930s, leading to increased production costs for manufacturers and potentially higher prices for consumers [2] Group 2 - U.S. Aluminum Company reported a $20 million increase in production costs in Q1 due to tariff policies, and a $115 million increase in Q2 as a result of tariffs on Canadian products [2] - Approximately 70% of aluminum produced by the U.S. Aluminum Company in Canada is sold to the U.S., where customers are now paying higher prices than in other global markets [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9%, significantly higher than June's zero growth, indicating rising cost pressures for U.S. businesses [4] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to impose semiconductor tariffs, potentially reaching up to 300%, within two weeks [3] - The PPI increase was primarily driven by the service sector, with a notable 1.1% rise in service producer prices, the largest since March 2022 [4] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also saw a 0.9% month-over-month increase, with a year-over-year rise of 3.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4]

Group 1 - China has filed a lawsuit against Canada at the World Trade Organization (WTO) due to allegations of dumping canola oil, imposing a deposit of up to 75.8% on imports from Canada starting August 14 [1] - Canadian Agriculture Minister expressed disappointment over China's decision but acknowledged efforts to engage in dialogue with China to resolve trade disputes [3] - Canada has not taken substantial corrective measures in the four days following China's announcement, prompting further action from China [3] Group 2 - Canada imposed discriminatory tariffs on Chinese steel products as a means to address trade tensions with the United States, which has placed significant tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum [3][5] - The Canadian government previously announced a 100% tariff on electric vehicles from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from China to appease the U.S. [5] - The new Canadian Prime Minister, Carney, has taken a firm stance against U.S. pressure, but recent tariffs on products containing "Chinese steel components" indicate ongoing trade discrimination [5] Group 3 - China is no longer willing to tolerate Canada's previous approach of externalizing internal issues by targeting China, warning that further actions harming Chinese interests will lead to consequences [7] - The expectation is for Canada to recognize the situation and work towards a positive development in bilateral relations with China [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced an expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, increasing the tariff rate to 50% on hundreds of derivative products [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 407 product codes to the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur additional tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [2]. - The expanded tariff list will officially take effect on August 18 [2]. - The tariff on imported steel and aluminum was previously raised from 25% to 50% as announced on June 3 [2].

Group 1 - China has filed a lawsuit against Canada in the WTO regarding import restrictions on steel and other products, urging Canada to correct its actions and maintain a rules-based multilateral trade system [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized Canada's unilateral and protectionist measures, which include imposing tariffs on products containing "Chinese steel components," claiming these actions violate WTO rules and disrupt international trade [1][3] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized that the main issue affecting Canada's steel industry is the unilateral tariffs imposed by the United States, and accused Canada of shifting the blame to other trade partners, including China [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated anti-dumping investigations into imported canola seeds and halogenated butyl rubber from Canada, citing evidence of dumping and substantial harm to domestic industries [5][6] - Preliminary rulings indicate that the dumping margin for Canadian companies in the canola seed case is 75.8%, while the margin for halogenated butyl rubber ranges from 26.2% to 40.5% [5][6] - Temporary anti-dumping measures will be implemented, requiring importers to provide corresponding guarantees to customs based on the determined rates starting from August 14, 2025 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China has filed a lawsuit against Canada in the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding import restrictions on steel and other products, claiming that Canada's actions are unilateral and protectionist, violating WTO rules [1][2]. - China strongly opposes Canada's discriminatory tariffs on products containing "Chinese steel components," which disrupts the stability of global steel supply chains [1]. - The Chinese government urges Canada to correct its actions to maintain a rules-based multilateral trading system and to improve China-Canada economic and trade relations [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the lagging nature of news in the A-share market, where market movements often precede actual news announcements, demonstrating a "running ahead" characteristic [1][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of observing real trading behaviors to understand market dynamics, as information asymmetry often leads ordinary investors to lag behind institutional players [6][10] - It discusses the phenomenon where institutional funds remain active in trading without pushing stock prices up, indicating potential future movements and the need for investors to pay attention to such signals [12][15] Group 2 - The article presents a common pattern across different industries, where institutional funds tend to enter positions ahead of significant price movements, suggesting a strategic approach to investment [13][15] - It stresses the importance of quantitative data in understanding market trends, arguing that in an era of information overload, focusing on reliable trading data can provide a competitive edge [16][17]