Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates a continuous increase in domestic tin ingot prices, with prices reaching 270,000 CNY/ton in late July. The price is expected to fluctuate between 250,000 CNY/ton and 280,000 CNY/ton in the coming months due to supply constraints and low inventory levels in the London Metal Exchange [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Factors - The tight supply of tin ore remains unresolved, providing a bottom support for tin prices. Although there is an expectation of some easing in global tin ore supply in the second half of the year, the new supply entering the Chinese market is expected to be limited [1][2]. - Global tin ore grades are declining, leading to limited marginal supply increases and rising cost levels [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The main demand for tin metal comes from solder materials, primarily used in the electronics industry, including consumer electronics, communication, computers, and automotive electronics. The global semiconductor sales are projected to recover significantly starting November 2023, with a forecasted sales figure of 167.7 billion USD in Q1 2025, representing an 18.8% year-on-year growth [1]. - The demand for solder materials is expected to maintain positive growth, driven by the increasing penetration and intelligence rates in the domestic automotive sector. The overall consumption of tin metal is anticipated to improve in the fourth quarter, providing upward price potential [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The development of artificial intelligence technology is expected to enhance the demand for solder materials, particularly in the AI PC market, which is projected to reach 150 million units by 2025. The higher integration and packaging density of AI PC motherboards will likely increase the tin solder demand compared to regular computers [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The progress of the US - EU tariff agreement eases trade tensions, weakening gold's safe - haven demand. The drop in US initial jobless claims to 217,000 strengthens the expectation of the Fed maintaining interest rates. The breakdown of cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East provides some support, while domestic gold prices are pressured by both the decline in international gold prices and the strengthening of the RMB [3]. - Copper: The "anti - involution" affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are potential mid - term risks as there is no significant capacity to be eliminated on the supply side, and the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station has a long cycle with low initial copper demand. Also, the increase in copper prices has not significantly driven up positions [13]. - Aluminum: Macroeconomic factors are positive, boosting sentiment. Low inventory continues to support aluminum prices, and SHFE aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For alumina, the short - term trend is mainly driven by sentiment, and it may fluctuate, with a risk of significant correction if the fundamentals change. Cast aluminum alloy is affected by high scrap aluminum prices and weak demand [33][34][35]. - Zinc: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" sentiment, SHFE zinc fluctuates at a high level. Fundamentally, the supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the traditional off - season. The Yarlung River Dam project may bring some demand growth [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore supply is expected to be loose with narrowing demand and is likely to decline. Nickel pig iron trading has improved, and stainless steel lacks upward momentum. Sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales, and attention should be paid to the support of nickel pig iron and large - scale production cuts [78]. - Tin: The rise in tin prices is due to the "anti - involution" impact on the non - ferrous sector, but its fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, with the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weakening demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the support [93]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market for lithium ore and lithium salts is actively traded, and industry profits are improving. Cost support is strengthened by rising ore prices, but price fluctuations have increased [103]. - Silicon Industry Chain: Market sentiment is hot, and both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices have fluctuated significantly. Investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Influencing Factors**: Trade agreements, US economic data, Middle East situation, and RMB exchange rate affect gold prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term slightly stronger, mid - term potential risks [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show a decline, and the trading volume and positions have certain trends [14]. - **Spot Data**: Spot copper prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have changed [17]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and copper concentrate TC remains unchanged [25]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: SHFE and LME copper warehouse receipts and inventories have different changes [30][31]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic support, low inventory support, and short - term high - level fluctuations [33]. - **Alumina**: High operating capacity, slow inventory accumulation, tight spot supply, and short - term sentiment - driven [34]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High cost, weak demand, and price following SHFE aluminum [35]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Include prices of various contracts, spreads between different contracts, and basis data [36][41]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts and inventories have changed [58]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: High - level fluctuations under "anti - involution" sentiment, with supply gradually becoming surplus and demand weak [62]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts have declined, and spreads between different contracts have changed [63]. - **Spot Data**: Spot zinc prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have certain trends [69]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventories have increased [74]. Nickel - **Industry Outlook**: Nickel ore supply is loose, nickel pig iron trading improves, stainless steel lacks upward momentum, and sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales [78]. - **Price and Position Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts have changed, and trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts have corresponding trends [79]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and downstream products, as well as profit margins of related production [84][86][88]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The rise is due to sector - wide influence, with short - term upward pressure greater than support [93]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts have declined, and spot tin prices and related products have also decreased [94][97]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE tin warehouse receipts have increased, while LME tin inventory remains unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Active spot trading, improving industry profits, and strengthening cost support [103]. - **Futures Price Data**: Prices of various lithium carbonate futures contracts have increased, and spreads between different contracts have changed [103]. - **Spot Data**: Prices of lithium ore and lithium salts have risen, and the spreads between different products have also changed [106]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange and social inventories of lithium carbonate have different changes [110]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Market Outlook**: Hot market sentiment, significant price fluctuations in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, and investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices are stable, futures prices have increased slightly, and basis and spreads have changed [113][114]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components, as well as production and inventory data of industrial silicon [120][121][127][133][140].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the potential for supply - side clearance, which has boosted copper prices. However, demand has weakened with the price rebound, and there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Domestic macro - policies and low inventories support copper prices. The main reference price range is 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term prices are expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks such as policy changes in Guinea and potential squeezes. Mid - term, it is advisable to short at high prices. For aluminum, short - term prices are under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction inflection points and demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - Supply - side restoration is expected as tin mines in Myanmar resume production. However, due to positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, short at high prices [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill production reduction rhythms [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is characterized by emotional differentiation, and trading on price volatility can be considered. The main contract price range is 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, a hedging strategy at high prices is recommended. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.04% to 79,790 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons (-0.30%) to 1.1349 million tons, and imports increased by 47,400 tons (18.74%) to 300,500 tons. The opening rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 7.22 percentage points to 74.22% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.43% to 20,850 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 14,000 tons (-0.19%) to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 120,000 tons (-3.22%) to 3.609 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9,000 tons (1.49%) to 615,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6,000 tons (-2.30%) to 255,000 tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 35,700 tons (6.50%) to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 9,300 tons (34.97%) to 36,100 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.40% to 124,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 3,550 tons (-10.04%) to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 10,325 tons (116.90%) to 19,157 tons [11]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.98% to 268,900 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 1,538 tons (-11.44%) to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 1,030 tons (-6.94%) to 13,810 tons [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 68,300 tons (-3.83%) to 1.7133 million tons, and imports decreased by 16,000 tons (-12.48%) to 109,500 tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.95% to 70,450 yuan/ton. The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 6,010 tons (8.34%) to 78,090 tons, and demand decreased by 145 tons (-0.15%) to 93,815 tons [20].

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Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the macro situation, and funds are trading in advance on the expectation of supply - side clearance, which boosts copper prices. However, the demand side has weakened significantly, showing a stage of weak supply and demand. The domestic macro - policy support and low inventory support the copper price. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the price is expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks of squeeze - out due to policy changes in Guinea and warehouse receipt reduction. In the medium term, it is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, the price is under pressure at a high level, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The regenerative aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [8]. Nickel - Macro - sentiment boosts the market, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel is loosening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, the price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. However, the market sentiment is good recently. It is recommended to avoid short positions for now and short at high prices after the sentiment stabilizes [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a consumption off - season, and the terminal demand is weak. The macro - expectation is strong, and the supply may decrease in the future. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cuts [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures market is supported by macro - sentiment and news. The price is expected to run strongly in a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 13.04% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,940 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have different degrees of increase [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,780 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,550 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The production cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 121,953 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month [11]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [11]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 266,300 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The 5 - month tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month, and the import volume was 2,076 tons, up 84.04% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is 12,900 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The 43 - company 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The 300 - series stainless - steel import volume was 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month, and the export volume was 0.39 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 68,169 yuan/ton, up 1.62% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in June was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate demand in June was 93,872 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month, and the total inventory was 99,858 tons, up 2.27% month - on - month [17].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Pay attention to domestic anti-involution policies and overseas equivalent tariff policy expectations, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - For alumina, short-term prices are expected to remain strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but beware of policy changes in Guinea and the risk of a short squeeze due to the reduction of warehouse receipts. Mid-term, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For aluminum, short-term prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and changes in imports. [6] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Long-term supply is expected to be loose, but terminal consumption still has some resilience in the short term. [9] Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations. [12] Tin - With the gradual resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, there is an expectation of supply-side repair. However, due to the current positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, consider shorting on rallies. [14] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy trends and the asset conditions of steel mills. [18] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong within a range, with the main contract reference range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton. However, the mid-term upward risk is higher than the downward risk, and pay attention to upstream actions. [21] Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.14% to 79,555 yuan/ton. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened by 53.15% to 1,479 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 1.1349 million tons, while imports increased by 18.74% to 300,500 tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.92% to 20,890 yuan/ton. The import loss of aluminum was 1,427 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 3.609 million tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy prices in different regions increased by 0.50% - 0.99%. [5] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 615,000 tons, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 255,000 tons. [6] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.24% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The import loss of zinc was 1,706 yuan/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 36,100 tons. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.11% to 122,850 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was -206 dollars/ton. [12] Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. [12] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.64% to 267,200 yuan/ton. The import loss of tin was 16,228.79 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. [14] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.78% - 1.18%. 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price increased by 0.17% to 902 yuan/nickel point. [18] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 mills) decreased by 3.83% to 1.7133 million tons. [18] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.03% to 68,000 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened by 3.13% to 1,650 yuan/ton. [21] Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78,090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93,878 tons. [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Insights - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum is weak, but medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to tighten [14]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 1.32%, ranking in the middle among all Shenwan first-level industries [24]. - The top three performing sub-sectors were lithium (+6.19%), silver (+5.44%), and tungsten (+5.23%) [24]. 2. Precious Metals Market Data - London gold price was $3355.10 per ounce, with a slight increase of $3.00 per ounce (0.09%) [34]. - London silver price reached $38.27 per ounce, up by $0.77 per ounce (2.05%) [34]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased to 30.34 million ounces, down by 130,000 ounces [34]. 3. Industrial Metals Data - LME copper closed at $9720 per ton, up by $80 per ton (0.83%) [40]. - SHFE copper closed at 78,410 yuan per ton, down by 160 yuan per ton (-0.20%) [40]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 143,300 tons, down by 0.04 tons from the previous week [40]. 4. Key Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [16]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [16]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand." The spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, the price of the main aluminum contract is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The price of the main alumina contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton in the coming week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions established at previous high levels [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. However, there is still a downward risk in the medium term [16]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.82% to 78,660 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose by 70 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, an increase of 18.74% month-on-month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.63% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum rose by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% month-on-month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% month-on-month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 35 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.615 million tons, an increase of 1.49% month-on-month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 0.255 million tons, a decrease of 2.30% month-on-month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.95% to 22,320 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, an increase of 6.50% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, an increase of 34.97% month-on-month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.87% to 121,500 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% month-on-month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% month-on-month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.37% to 265,500 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% month-on-month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% month-on-month [11]. Stainless Steel - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 12,800 yuan/ton. The basis between futures and spot increased by 28.95% to 245 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts remained unchanged at -40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.1095 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month-on-month [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.62% to 66,650 yuan/ton. The basis (based on SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate) decreased by 3.86% to -3,230 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 180 yuan/ton to -80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% month-on-month; the demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% month-on-month [16].