研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 成文日期: 20250625 研究品种:沪锡 研究员：曹伯泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 报告周期:日度 沪锡期货日报 1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日(20250625)沪锡主力合约 2507 呈现震荡偏弱走势，早盘 开盘价为 263200 元/吨, 盘中最高触及 263800 元/吨, 最低下探至 261900 元/吨, 最终收盘报价 263800 元/吨,结算价为 262150 元/ 吨。从日内走势来看,合约价格在午后一度尝试上涨,但未能有效 突破 264000 元/吨的阻力位,随后逐步回落,整体呈现出高位震荡 的格局。成交量方面，今日沪锡主力合约 2507 成交量为 5.47 万手, 较前一交易日有所减少，显示市场交投活跃度略有下降。持仓量方 面，截止至今日收盘，持仓量为 1.31 万手。 图 1：沪锡主力合约 2507 价格走势 沪锡主力连续合约分时图,图片来源：同花顺期货通 1.2 期货行情数据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tight supply situation due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines, leading to a significant increase in tin prices, which reached a nearly one-month high with a rise of 1.95% to 267,270 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic tin concentrate processing fees have dropped to historical lows, nearing the cost line for smelting enterprises, resulting in squeezed profit margins and prompting some companies to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - The downstream electronics industry is entering a low season, and with current high tin prices, there is a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, contributing to weak consumption during the off-peak season [1] Group 2 - In May, China's tin ore imports increased month-on-month, with significant contributions from Africa, although the actual output from Myanmar remains low due to slow recovery, with only a few dozen tons exported from Wa State [1] - The import window for tin ingots opened briefly in late April to early May but began to close after mid-May, with some traders relying on previously locked-in prices for shipments [2] - The market outlook suggests that while supply constraints exist due to raw material shortages in Yunnan and reduced scrap tin recovery in Jiangxi, the demand side is showing significant reductions, leading to expectations of a slight oversupply and pressure on tin prices [2]

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 容咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月26日 星期四 | | | | | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前年 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 78580 | 78415 | +165.00 | 0.21% | 元/肥 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 30 | 40 | -10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78565 | 78395 | +170.00 | 0.22% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 10 | 30 | -20.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78575 | 78335 | +180.00 | 0.23% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -35 | -40 | +5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1173 | 1100 | +73.62 | 6.70% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and the possible delay of interest rate cuts have suppressed gold prices in the short - term, but long - term supporting factors remain [3]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton. Considering the possible weakening of demand, the upside pressure is large and the downside support is relatively weak [13]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory is the short - term core factor supporting prices, with short - term high - level fluctuations and a long - term bearish outlook. Alumina is in low - level operation, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [30][31][32]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and market sentiment should be focused on, along with inventory data [59]. - **Nickel**: The overall nickel industry is affected by the situation in the Middle - East and the US macro - level. Nickel ore may remain tight, the contradiction in the nickel - iron link is difficult to resolve, and the supply - demand situation of stainless steel may improve if the production cut continues. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term. The continuous decline in inventory and the under - recovery of upstream tin mines provide support, while weak downstream demand creates pressure [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The supply of the silicon industry chain is strong, while the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The cease - fire in the Middle - East has weakened the safe - haven demand, and the possible delay of interest rate cuts has tightened the US dollar liquidity, suppressing gold prices [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in the report [4]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton, with greater upside pressure and weaker downside support [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [14]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and spot premiums are given [19]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are presented [23]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME copper inventories are provided [27][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and low inventory supports short - term prices. The inventory increase on June 23 may or may not be the inflection point [30]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea may remain shut down in the short - term, and alumina is in low - level operation due to the game between production resumption and maintenance [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but the demand growth may slow down. The futures contract is in a BACK structure, and the price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [32]. - **Price and Spread Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina futures, as well as various price spreads, are provided [35][38]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina spot prices, as well as various basis and price spreads, are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are provided [51]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and inventory data should be focused on [59]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are provided [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices and spot premiums are given [65]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME zinc inventories are provided [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The overall industry is affected by the Middle - East situation and US macro - factors. Nickel ore may be tight, the nickel - iron link has contradictions, and the stainless - steel supply - demand situation may improve with production cuts. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided [73][75]. - **Inventory and Related Data**: Data on nickel spot prices, warehouse receipts, nickel ore prices, and inventory are presented [79][81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices may remain stable in the short - term, with support from inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weak downstream demand [88]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [89]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME tin inventories are provided [97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are provided [104][108]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and various lithium carbonate inventories are presented [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures prices are provided [115][116]. - **Related Product Prices**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other silicon - related products are presented [124][126]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: Data on industrial silicon production, inventory, and industry average costs are provided [131][137][140].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations around the 260,000 yuan per ton mark, with a slight decline of 0.07% in the main contract, closing at 263,000 yuan per ton. The market is currently in a vacuum period with strong supply realities but weak expectations, limiting the upward potential of tin prices [1] - The operating rates of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low, with a combined operating rate of only 46.84% as of last week. The processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan have dropped to historical lows, severely squeezing profit margins and forcing some enterprises to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - In Jiangxi, there is a shortage of recycled tin raw materials, with the recovery of waste tin post-Spring Festival falling below 70% of the annual average, and electronic waste supply decreasing by 30% month-on-month. This situation is exacerbated by policy uncertainties regarding recycled resources [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 13,448.80 physical tons (equivalent to 6,752.11 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 98.56% and a month-on-month increase of 44.70%. However, the import volume remains at historical lows, indicating a slight alleviation of domestic raw material supply shortages [2] - The main increases in imports are concentrated in Africa and South America, particularly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Bolivia. Conversely, imports from Myanmar saw a significant decline, with May figures showing a 37.13% month-on-month decrease and a 32.01% year-on-year decrease [2] - The market outlook suggests a weakening supply and demand scenario, with smelting plants facing reduced operating rates due to insufficient tin concentrate supply. Additionally, the end of the solar market's installation phase may lead to a sharp decline in orders for tin bar manufacturers, making it difficult for tin prices to exhibit a clear trend [2]

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年6月25日 星期三 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 78415 | 78325 | +90.00 | 0.11% | 元/肥 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 40 | 90 | -50.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78395 | 78295 | +100.00 | 0.13% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 30 | 60 | -30.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78335 | 78240 | +95.00 | 0.12% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -40 | 5 | -45.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1100 | 1020 | +80.00 | 7. ...

有色金属日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2507 合约收于 78640 元/吨，涨幅 0.4%，沪铜指数增仓 10391 手至 53.56 万手。 2.现货：季度末清库与资金需求，现货升水下跌，上海部分低价货源已经降低至贴水出 货。上海报升水 40 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 50 元/吨。广东库存结束下降，报升水 30 元 /吨，下跌 30 元/吨。天津市场表现供需双弱，报贴水 170 元/吨，下跌 20 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 第一量子矿业公司（First Quantum Minerals）表 ...

期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月24日 星期二 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 78325 | 78400 | -75.00 | -0.10% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 90 | 120 | -30.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78295 | 78455 | -160.00 | -0.20% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 90 | -30.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78240 | 78300 | -60.00 | -0.08% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 5 | 20 | -15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1020 | 920 | +100.00 | 10.87% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 274.99 | 133.36 | +141.63 | - | 美 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2507 合约收于 78290 元/吨，涨幅 0.14%，沪铜指数减仓 5943 手至 52.52 万手。 2.现货：持货商积极出货换现，现货升水承压走低。上海报升水 90 元/吨，较上一交易日下 跌 30 元/吨。广东库存 5 连降，但市场看淡后市，持货商主动降价出货，报升水 60 元/ 吨，下跌 30 元/吨。华北临近年中月末，下游采购欲望不强，报贴水 150 元/吨，下跌 40 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国 5 月废铜进口量 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/23 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...