行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 25 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：集运欧线期货7月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 2,212.3 | 2,229.0 | 2,244.9 | 2,230.5 | 32.6 | 1.4 ...

宏观金融团队 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 2,276.1 | 2,238.0 | 2,239.7 | 2,212.3 | -36.4 | -1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the stock index futures market, the pro - cyclical theme continues to ferment, and the A - share market has increased in volume. In the bond market, it is in a weak and stable state, and the short - term is affected by the rebound of risk preference. The precious metals market is strong due to the weakening of the US dollar. The shipping futures market is expected to be weak. Most non - ferrous metals show different trends of rise and fall, and the black metal market is generally on the rise. The agricultural product market has different performances in different varieties [2][7][10][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On July 22, major A - share indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3581.86 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising 1.12% and 0.90% respectively, and IC2509 and IM2509 rising 1.15% and 0.66% respectively [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to cancel the registration of foreign direct investment in China for reinvestment. Overseas, EU leaders will visit China [3] - **Funding**: On July 22, the A - share trading volume increased to 1.89 trillion yuan, and the north - bound capital trading volume was 2414.97 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2148 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the major indices maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the performance reporting period, it is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in the MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board on July 22. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **News**: The A - share market rose, and most domestic commodity futures closed higher [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: The risk - on sentiment suppresses the bond market, but the current fundamentals are still in a weak and stable state, which is bullish for the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be in a box - shock stage. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: Affected by multiple factors such as US trade negotiations and the possible continuation of Fed Chairman Powell's tenure, the US dollar index continued to fall, and gold and silver prices were strong. International gold closed at $3431.38 per ounce, up 1.02%, and international silver closed at $39.285 per ounce, up 0.94% [9][10] - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and the current market lacks a clear driver. Silver has a large change in physical demand, and the price center may move up. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 22, the spot prices of major shipping companies showed different levels [12] - **Index**: As of July 21, the SCFIS European line index fell 0.89% month - on - month, and the US West line index rose 2.78% [12] - **Fundamentals**: As of July 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year. The demand side showed different PMI data in the eurozone and the US [13] - **Logic**: The futures price fell on July 22. As the peak season is coming to an end, the spot price is expected to decline, and the sentiment of the main contract will be suppressed [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [14] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 79755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [15] - **Macro**: The domestic anti - involution policy boosts copper demand and may promote the clearance of smelting capacity [16] - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper is expected to increase in July [17] - **Demand**: The demand for copper has certain resilience, and the power and new energy sectors support the demand [18] - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [18] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is good, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 78500 - 81000 yuan/ton [19] Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 22, the average spot price of alumina in various regions increased by 25 - 50 yuan/ton [19] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity increased [20] - **Inventory**: The port inventory and registered warehouse receipts of alumina decreased [20] - **Logic**: Affected by the expected capacity elimination and the risk of short - squeeze, the price rose strongly in the short - term. In the medium - term, the market is slightly oversupplied [21] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be strong above 3100 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [22] Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decline in July [22] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the start - up rate increased slightly last week [23] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory increased [23] - **Logic**: The aluminum price rebounded slightly, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [24] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [24] - **Supply**: In July, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly [25] - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the trading activity has decreased [25] - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and some areas are close to full storage [25] - **Logic**: The price of the aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price to rise slightly, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [26][27] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [27] Zinc - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22780 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [27] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in July [28] - **Demand**: The start - up rates of the three primary processing industries are differentiated, and the overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [29] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [29] - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the demand is under pressure in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [30] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [30] Tin - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of SMM 1 tin was 266300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton from the previous day [30] - **Supply**: In May, the import of tin ore and tin ingots increased [31] - **Demand and Inventory**: The start - up rate of solder decreased in June, and the LME inventory decreased [32][33] - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be repaired, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to avoid short positions for the time being [33] - **Operation Suggestion**: Avoid short positions for the time being and short on rallies after the sentiment stabilizes [33] Nickel - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous day [33] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is expected to increase slightly in July [34] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [34] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory has increased [34] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [35] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton [36] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel was 12950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [37] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore has loosened, and the price of nickel iron has improved slightly [37] - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease in July [38] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing [38] - **Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [39] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [40] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69100 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from the previous day [40] - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in July, and the supply is relatively sufficient [41] - **Demand**: The demand is relatively stable, and the seasonal performance is weakened [41] - **Inventory**: The inventory in all links is increasing [43] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment supports the price, but the fundamental logic has not changed. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [44] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to operate between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of steel billets and steel products increased [45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has increased, but the steel price has also risen, and the profit of steel mills has increased [45] - **Supply**: The molten iron output has increased, and the production of steel mills is expected to increase [45] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products has remained stable at a high level [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has remained stable at a low level [46] - **Logic**: The anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the steel price is expected to continue to rise [47] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [47] Iron Ore - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of mainstream iron ore powder increased [48] - **Futures**: The main 09 contract and the far - month 01 contract of iron ore rose [48] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties showed different levels [48] - **Demand**: The molten iron output and blast furnace operating rate increased [48] - **Supply**: The global shipment volume decreased slightly, and the arrival volume increased [48] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [49] - **Logic**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply is expected to be stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [49] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [49] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coking coal futures limit - up, and the spot price increased [50] - **Supply**: The resumption of coal mines is slow, and the supply is still in short supply [51] - **Demand**: The coking and blast furnace operations are stable, and the demand for coking coal is relatively strong [51] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly [52] - **Logic**: The supply of coking coal is expected to be tightened, and the price is expected to continue to rise [52] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [52] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coke futures limit - up, and the second - round price increase of spot coke was implemented [53] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative [53] - **Supply**: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mines and corporate losses [53] - **Demand**: The demand for coke has increased due to the increase in molten iron output [54] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants and ports has decreased, and the inventory of steel mills has increased [55] - **Logic**: The price of coke is expected to continue to rise due to the increase in demand and the decrease in inventory [55] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in hedging operations [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On July 22, the price of domestic soybean meal was stable or increased slightly, and the trading volume decreased [56] - **Fundamentals**: The excellent rate of US soybeans has decreased, and the export inspection volume has increased [56][57] - **Market Outlook**: The US soybeans are expected to be supported at the bottom, and the domestic soybean meal is recommended to be cautiously bullish [57][58] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: On July 22, the spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding has decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has decreased [60] - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuates, and the upward drive of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [60][61] Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price of corn in Northeast China and North China was stable or increased slightly [62] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in Guangzhou Port has increased [62] - **Market Outlook**: The market sentiment is stable, and the corn price is expected to rebound and fluctuate [62]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The peak of the peak season for spot freight rates is about to appear. The SCFIS this week has dropped by about 21 points to around 2400 points compared with last week. Online quotes are relatively stable. After the continuous repair of the 08 contract, the current discount space is relatively limited. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities in October, a traditional off - season, and the positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] Industry News - From July 14 to July 18, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, with most route market freight rates falling, dragging down the composite index. The Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index on July 18 was 1646.90 points, a 5.0% drop from the previous period [9] - In the first half of 2025, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with exports increasing by 7.2% year - on - year, which will support the Chinese export container shipping market in the long term [9] - The eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 36.1, and Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index reached 52.7, a new high since February 2022, indicating that the European economy continues to recover [9] - Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting from August 1, and the EU drafted a tariff list for US services in response, so Sino - European trade still faces great uncertainty [9] - On July 18, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 2079 US dollars/TEU, a 1.0% drop from the previous period; the market freight rate to Mediterranean basic ports was 2528 US dollars/TEU, a 5.2% drop from the previous period [9][10] - In June, the US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, the highest in four months. The market freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on July 18 were 2142 US dollars/FEU and 3612 US dollars/FEU respectively, down 2.4% and 13.4% from the previous period [10] - Due to the continuous blockade of the Red Sea by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, Eilat Port in Israel has stopped all operations since July 20, which may weaken Israel's shipping logistics capacity in the Red Sea and trigger potential security concerns [10] - Trump said the US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US has also reached agreements with Indonesia and notified some Southeast Asian countries of new tariff rates [10] - The leader of the Yemeni Houthi rebels said that as long as Israel continues to invade and blockade Gaza, the Houthi rebels will continue to ban ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea [10] Data Overview Container Shipping Spot Prices - On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 2400.5 points, a 0.9% drop from July 14; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1301.81 points, a 2.8% increase from July 14 [12] Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on July 22 shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, open interests and position changes. For example, the EC2508 contract closed at 2249.7 points, down 2.20% [6] Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping European line futures contract trends, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - European basic port freight rates [13][17][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Each report presents data and analysis on different futures markets, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and a trading calendar, without a unified core view. 3. Summary by Report Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IF, IH, IC, and IM Futures**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is 37.60% with a change of - 9.16 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Provides cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 1000/CSI 300, etc., along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: Shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, and TL Treasury bond futures [2]. - **Inter - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents inter - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) for different Treasury bond futures, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Reports domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver on July 22 and 21. For example, the AU2510 contract rose 0.40% to 784.84 yuan/gram on July 22 [3]. - **Basis, Ratios, Yields, and Inventories**: Provides basis values, ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver), yields of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and inventory data for precious metals, along with their changes [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes and Indexes**: Gives spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping prices and various container shipping indexes (e.g., SCFIS, SCFI), along with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Presents futures prices and basis values for container shipping futures contracts, along with their changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on shipping capacity supply, port performance, export volume, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [5]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas and Domestic Data/Information**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events to be released on July 23, including time, data source, and relevant details [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7.15 - 7.20 this week [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue to strengthen as various sentiment indicators are positive [2]. - Treasury bond trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy to be fully implemented after important meetings. There may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market after the policy is implemented and emotions are released [2][3][4]. - The shipping index (European line) futures prices may continue to oscillate and decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may face risks in the medium term. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. Zinc is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by macro - emotions, and the trend needs to pay attention to the fermentation of macro - emotions. Tin prices are expected to follow the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, and there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads. Lead is expected to oscillate [6][7][8][9][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][21][22]. - The steel and hot - rolled coil market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant. Iron ore is driven by expectations, and its price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of 9 - 1 reverse spreads. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. - Crude oil is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline. PX - PTA and MEG - bottle chips are driven by the "anti - involution" policy and are expected to run strongly in the short term. Methanol is recommended to be observed. PP and PE are affected by the cost side and macro - policies, with resistance to price increases and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern respectively. PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" emotion and is recommended to avoid risks. Fuel oil is in a weak adjustment, low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure and should be observed, asphalt is adjusted weakly following the cost side, and urea is expected to oscillate strongly [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. - Soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and glass is expected to remain strong. Logs have a relatively independent market, and pulp may break through and can be cautiously chased long if it breaks through effectively. Caustic soda is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [54][55][57][59][60]. - For agricultural products, live pigs are recommended to be shorted at high prices and appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged. Oilseeds are recommended to be long - allocated in the far - month contracts. Corn and starch are expected to oscillate narrowly. Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. Sugar is under short - term pressure. Apples are expected to oscillate in the short term [62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1756 at 16:30, up 12 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1695 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1460, up 62 basis points [1]. - The current market has no obvious expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and the foreign exchange market transactions are rational and orderly. The external environment shows that the rapid depreciation stage of the US dollar index is likely to have ended, but the overall weak trend is expected to continue. Domestically, the central bank is likely to continue to adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + discretionary decision - making" [1]. Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index continued to strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1930.58 billion yuan. The futures index increased in volume. Affected by the anti - involution policy and the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the water conservancy, steel, and building materials sectors led the rise [2]. - With positive sentiment indicators and relatively calm news, the stock index is expected to continue to strengthen [2]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures opened strongly, oscillated narrowly, then dived and closed down. The short - end was relatively strong, and the liquidity improved, with the capital interest rate returning to the key level of 1.3% [2]. - With the strong performance of risk assets and the decline of treasury bond futures prices, trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy. After the policy is implemented and emotions are released, there may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market [2][3][4]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts oscillated downward. Affected by commodity emotions, they rebounded slightly and then continued to decline [4]. - On July 31, the total quote of Maersk's 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased by $10 compared with the previous value, and the 40GP increased by $20. On August 7, the opening quotes of 20GP and 40GP decreased compared with the previous week [4]. - The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline slightly, and attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper Index maintained a high - level oscillation on Tuesday. The anti - involution policy has an impact on the non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are hidden risks in the medium term [6][7]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.75% on the previous trading day, and the price of alumina increased by 6.07%. The price of casting aluminum alloy increased by 0.90%. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level [8][9][10][11]. - **Zinc**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc increased by 0.01% on the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to change from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [11][13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel increased by 1.52% during the day, and the main contract of stainless steel increased by 0.47%. The current market is mainly affected by macro - emotions, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [15]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai Tin Index showed a V - shaped trend on Tuesday. Tin prices are affected by the anti - involution policy, but the fundamentals remain stable. It is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time [16][17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain strengthened, and the cost support was enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose by the daily limit. Affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads [19][20]. - **Lead**: The main contract of Shanghai Lead decreased by 0.02% on the previous trading day. The supply of lead is in a tight - balance state, and it is difficult to synchronize with the anti - involution policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The coking coal market led to a rise in the steel market. The market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by news and expectations, the price of iron ore followed the rise of coking coal. The fundamentals have not changed much, and the price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting [26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets rose by the daily limit. The production of domestic coking coal mines is gradually recovering, and the import is expected to increase. The coking industry is under cost pressure, and the demand for coke is supported in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28][29][30]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The profits of silicon iron and silicon manganese have improved, and the production enterprises have a certain driving force to resume production. However, the growth space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The market is expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The prices of New York and London crude oil futures decreased, and the SC crude oil main contract also closed down at night. The market is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline [33][34]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - PTA industry chain has limited fundamental driving forces. The macro "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [35][36][37]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply of ethylene glycol has frequent accidents, and the demand is weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" emotion, the overall trend is strong. The bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39][40]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 09 contract closed at 2450 on Tuesday. The port inventory continued to accumulate. It is recommended to observe due to strong macro - emotions [41][42]. - **PP**: The PP 2509 contract increased. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the trading volume has increased, the price increase faces resistance [43][44]. - **PE**: The PE 2509 contract increased. The supply has a high level of maintenance, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [45][46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price increased sharply, driven by the "anti - involution" emotion and the expectation of eliminating outdated chemical devices. Although the fundamentals are poor, the anti - involution value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks [47][48][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is in a weak adjustment. The supply is still tight, and the demand has increased in some areas. The Singapore and Malaysian floating - storage inventories are at a high level [50]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The supply has decreased overseas, and the demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to observe in the short term [51]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market is adjusted weakly following the cost side. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory structure is being adjusted, and the market is expected to improve in the peak season [51][52]. - **Urea**: The urea 09 contract closed at 1810 on Tuesday. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. However, the agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will be under pressure in the second half of the year [53]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and the glass market is expected to remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy [54][55]. Others - **Logs**: The main contract of logs closed at 838, with a decrease of 4 and a reduction of 2264 lots. The market is relatively independent, and the spot price is stable. The current price is slightly overvalued [57][58]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp closed at 5368, with an increase of 40. Affected by the macro - atmosphere, the price has risen. If it can break through effectively, it can be cautiously chased long [59]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda 2509 contract closed at 2658, with an increase of 3.46%. The inventory has increased slightly, and the market is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [60]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The LH2509 contract closed at 14380, with a daily increase of 0.1%. The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. The supply is still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices and arrange appropriate reverse spreads [62][63]. Oilseeds - The external market of US soybeans oscillated after a rebound, and the domestic near - month contracts were strong, and the far - month contracts also followed the rise. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively abundant, and the demand for domestic soybean meal has neutral support. The supply of rapeseed meal has a short - term rhythm problem, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery of the rapeseed sector [64]. - It is recommended to long - allocate far - month contracts [65][66]. Corn and Starch - The CBOT corn futures closed down, and the Dalian corn starch oscillated. The prices of corn and starch in different regions were stable. The market is expected to oscillate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the auction成交 rate [66]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures rose slightly, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures rose nearly 0.5% overnight. The new cotton in Xinjiang is growing well, and the domestic cotton inventory is low, which supports the cotton price. However, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season [67]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the import quota policy and inventory changes [67][68]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures closed down, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term sugar price is under pressure [69][70]. Apples - The apple futures price increased slightly. The spot price of apples in different regions is stable. Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales volume is limited. The inventory is at a low level in the past five years. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [71].

Core Insights - The market is experiencing significant price drops, with CMA's price cuts triggering a more than 5% decline in European shipping rates during trading hours [1] - There are concerns about the upcoming peak season not meeting expectations, raising questions about potential unforeseen challenges, referred to as "black swans" [1] Group 1 - CMA's price reductions have led to a notable impact on the market dynamics, particularly affecting European shipping lines [1] - The expectation for a robust peak season is being questioned, indicating a potential mismatch between supply and demand [1] - The term "black swan" suggests that unexpected events may be looming, which could further complicate market conditions [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season is approaching, and the SCFIS has dropped by about 21 points to around 2400 points compared to last week. Online quotes are relatively stable. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities in October, a traditional off - season, and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between the 08 and 10 contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the shipping season is about to appear. The SCFIS has dropped to around 2400 points. Most shipping companies have slightly lowered their quotes for late July, and the quotes for August from some airlines remain at the late - July level. Historically, the peak usually appears in the third week of July, and freight rates in late August will return to the early - July level. The 08 contract's discount space is limited. Focus on shorting opportunities in October and positive spread arbitrage between 08 - 10 contracts [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 14 to 18, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with most route freight rates falling, dragging down the composite index. In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade increased steadily, which will support the export container shipping market in the long term [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index rose, and the German index reached a new high since February 2022. However, Trump's tariff announcement and the EU's counter - measures bring uncertainty. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation is in sync with European routes, and the spot market booking price has slightly declined. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports decreased by 5.2% [9]. - **North American Routes**: In June, the US CPI increased, and import prices showed upward pressure. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports decreased by 2.4% and 13.4% respectively [10]. - **Israeli Ports**: Due to the blockade by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, the Eilat Port in Israel has stopped operations, which may weaken Israel's shipping logistics capacity in the Red Sea and cause security concerns [10]. - **Trade Policies**: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may reach a trade agreement with India soon. The US has also set different tariff rates for other countries [10]. - **Red Sea Situation**: The Yemeni Houthi rebels have prohibited ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, and two cargo ships have been sunk in the Red Sea [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On July 21, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 0.9% compared to July 14, while the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 2.8% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts on July 21, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and trading volumes [6].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2400 points. The quotes of major airlines remained stable, possibly supported by good cargo demand. For the 08 contract, there is still some room for repair as it is at a discount to the spot index. For October, which is a traditional off - season, pay attention to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities at low prices [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's quotes in the second half of July were slightly higher than in the first half, and the quotes of other airlines converged to $3300 - 3500. For August, only a few airlines have reported fares, and attention should be paid to whether other airlines will follow the price increase. The 08 contract has room for repair, and for October, focus on short - selling and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [8] 2. Industry News - From July 7 to July 11, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with freight rates fluctuating due to different supply - demand fundamentals. The European economic recovery was relatively stable, but the outcome of the EU - US tariff negotiation was uncertain. The freight rates in the European route were stable, while those in the Mediterranean route declined slightly, and those in the North American route rebounded after adjustment. The US - EU trade negotiation was ongoing, with automobile and agricultural product tariffs as key issues, and the negotiation result was subject to Trump's decision. Trump also planned to impose unified tariffs on most trading partners, and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen restricted ships related to Israel from passing through relevant sea areas [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) increased from 2258.04 on July 7 to 2421.94 on July 14, a rise of 7.3%. SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) decreased from 1557.77 on July 7 to 1266.59 on July 14, a decline of 18.7% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts on July 16 were presented, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., with details of opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]