Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：0 ...

晚，春节前集中发货未完全启动，当前尚未全面爆仓也属正常 ; (2) 今年以来欧线货量坚挺, 季节性特征明显, (3) 02合约覆盖1月下半月和2 月上旬的运价，季节"柱运价高点多在春节前4-5周，若后续旺季货量逐步兑现，02或有更高想象空间, 04短期下方空间小，整体仍建议逢高空思路对待。 沂期欧线规信情况: 12月上宣涨失败，Week49：均值2360美金，折盘面1650点， Week50：MSK开舱下跌至2200美金定调，其余船司跟跌，OA2300-2400，PA2100-2200，目前中枢2270美金，折盘面1580点。 周 YML对week50两条船降价150至1750美金。MSC涨200至2600美金, 12月下：MSC喊涨3500，ONE涨至2800美金，MSK开舱2400。预计船司将会在12月上旬对1月舱位进行宣涨。 MSK对week51开舱报价2400美金,环比涨200,折盘面1660点。 国 国二 MSK对1月20日新增加研船MDV ELECTRA. 运力未知, 相关新闻 12/4 哈马斯蒂斯 17年第五十分年第三十年第二期第一次第一 当地时间3日晚间,巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动(哈马斯)发表声 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Copper Market**: Expected price increase to 120,000 CNY/ton due to lower global copper mine production growth compared to demand growth, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap. A weak dollar environment is favorable for copper's financial attributes [1][4][3] - **Aluminum Market**: Benefiting from domestic supply-side reforms and strong demand, with projected consumption growth of 1.5% to 2.3% for electrolytic aluminum by 2028. Raw material prices are relatively weak, but product prices remain strong, leading to substantial profits [1][4][5] - **Precious Metals Market**: Long-term outlook remains positive due to global financial order restructuring, dollar credit issues, and geopolitical factors supporting gold prices. Silver has seen rapid price increases, and attention is drawn to the gold-silver ratio recovery [1][6] - **Minor Metals**: Thorium and tantalum show investment potential, with thorium's supply-demand mismatch due to global energy shortages and nuclear power development. Tantalum prices are expected to recover due to export controls [1][7] - **New Materials**: Fields such as AI chips, inductors, capacitors, and new materials for robotics have significant growth potential, driven by expanding applications of emerging technologies [1][7] Steel Industry Insights - **Challenges and Opportunities**: The steel industry faces a contradiction between the increasing proportion of high-end products and supply surplus. Attention is needed on production restriction policies, new iron ore capacity releases, and cost changes. High-end special steel is expected to see development opportunities [1][13] - **Demand Structure Changes**: The demand for construction steel has significantly declined, with manufacturing becoming the primary growth point, accounting for over 50% of demand. Key sectors include machinery, automotive, and energy [1][21][22] - **Profit Influencing Factors**: Steel industry profits are influenced by cost factors (iron ore and coking coal prices), demand from real estate and manufacturing, and the effectiveness of production restriction policies [1][28] Market Projections - **Iron Ore Market**: Supply is expected to increase significantly in 2026, with new projects contributing substantial increments. Iron ore prices are projected to be under pressure, potentially dropping from approximately 101 USD to around 90 USD [2][26] - **Coking Coal Market**: Expected to remain stable in 2026 after significant fluctuations in 2025, with supply gradually recovering from various regions [2][27] Investment Strategies - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on high-dividend, high-return leading companies across various sectors. Continuous monitoring of real estate sales and construction starts is crucial, along with the development potential in special steel [1][30]

Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - The SCFIS index declined again this week, indicating that the price increase in late November was not fully implemented, and the price increase by shipping companies in the first half of December fell short of expectations. Maersk's aggressive pricing may suppress the price - increase space of other airlines, and there is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the market may engage in incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It is difficult to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is low. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued, and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index declined again this week, showing that the price increase in late November was not fully implemented, and the price increase by shipping companies in the first half of December was less than expected. For example, Maersk's opening quotes for large containers at the beginning of December were lower than the previous expected over $3000. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices. Due to the late Spring Festival, the market may have incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It is difficult to prove the overvaluation of the EC2602 contract in the short term, and attention should be paid to the overvaluation of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From November 24 to 28, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. On November 28, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1403.13 points, up 0.7% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, but there was a split between the service and manufacturing sectors. Transport demand was stable, and spot market booking prices rebounded after continuous declines. On November 28, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1404/TEU, up 2.7% from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was in sync with European routes, and market freight rates stopped falling and rebounded. On November 28, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2232/TEU, up 8.6% from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: The number of initial unemployment claims in the US decreased, but the number of continued unemployment claims was rising, indicating a dim labor market. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates showed differentiated trends. The freight rate on the US - West route continued to decline slightly, while that on the US - East route rebounded. On November 28, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to US - West and US - East basic ports were $1632/FEU and $2428/FEU respectively, with a - 0.8% and 1.8% change from the previous period [10]. - **Red Sea - Suez Canal**: Maersk's statement about resuming Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation was "refuted" later [10]. - **Middle - East Situation**: There were continuous military conflicts and diplomatic interactions in the Middle - East, which may have an impact on the shipping market [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS Index**: On December 1, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1483.65, down 155.72 points (- 9.5%) from November 24. The SCFIS for US - West routes (basic ports) was 948.77, down 159.08 points (- 14.4%) from November 24 [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - **Futures Contract Data**: The trading data of different contracts on December 1, 2025, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Various shipping - related data charts were presented, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, and shipping freight rate trends [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin space, and the prices are expected to be stable with a slight increase. The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there are expectations for the peak season. Despite high capacity, the spot price in January is not expected to be overly pessimistic due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the price cut in December benefiting the price increase in January. If the peak season is gradually realized, the 02 contract may have more upside potential. The 04 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1636.7 yesterday, up 0.34%, with a basis of - 153.1, a trading volume of 705, an open interest of 4286, and an open interest change of - 215. EC2602 closed at 1492.5, up 1.40% (0.54% might be a misprint), with a basis of - 8.8, a trading volume of 26585, an open interest of 38244, and an open interest change of - 1867 (- 129 might be a misprint). EC2604 closed at 1078.0, with a basis of 405.7, a trading volume of 4192, and an open interest of 18614. EC2606 closed at 1237.0, up 1.79%, with a basis of 246.7, a trading volume of 278, an open interest of 2170, and an open interest change of - 84. EC2608 closed at 1357.2, up 1.36%, with a basis of 126.5, a trading volume of 102, an open interest of 1622, and an open interest change of - 8. EC2610 closed at 1033.2, up 1.19%, with a basis of 450.5, a trading volume of 441, an open interest of 3888, and an open interest change of - 86 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2512 - 2504 was 558.7, down 0.2 from the previous day and down 82.0 week - on - week. EC2512 - 2602 was 144.2, down 15.0 from the previous day and down 7.6 week - on - week. EC2502 - 2604 was 414.5, up 14.8 from the previous day and down 8.4 week - on - week [2] Spot Market - The SCFI (European line) index on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, with a price of 1404 dollars/TEU. The CCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period. The NCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Spot Situation - The price increase in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the disk. YML cut the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 dollars. In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 dollars, and ONE increased the price to 2800 dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin space in early December [4] Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the agreement. On November 29, the Lebanese Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on a senior commander [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals futures and spot prices, and container shipping industry indices. These data provide insights into market trends and price movements of different financial instruments. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: On December 1, 2025, the IF spot - futures spread was -20.86, the IC spot - futures spread was -57.35, and the IM spot - futures spread was 73.41. There were also various inter - period spreads and cross - product ratios presented, such as the IC/IF ratio at 1.5478 [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the IRR of some bonds had certain changes. For example, the TF basis was 1.5719, the T basis was 1.4880, and the TL basis was 1.8420. There were also inter - period spreads and cross - product spreads among different bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metals Futures and Spot - **Price Changes**: On November 28, 2025, domestic futures prices of precious metals like AU2602 increased by 0.71% to 953.92 yuan/gram, AG2602 rose by 1.61% to 12727 yuan/kilogram. In the foreign market, COMEX gold increased by 1.44% to 4256.40 dollars/ounce. There were also data on spot prices, basis, and price ratios [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Index Movements**: As of November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% to 1639.37 points, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54% to 1107.85 points. There were also data on shipping rates, futures prices, and fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply and port - related indicators [5].

集运指数（欧线）观点： 悲观情绪修复，宽幅震荡 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：悲观情绪修复，宽幅震荡 12月周均运力32.1万TEU/周，空班数量4艘，加班船1艘。除达飞 FAL3 52周船期提前至51周、无其他变化。 1月（12月29日-2月1日）待定航次从6艘减少至3艘，空班数量维持1艘不变，周均运力上修至32.2万TEU/周（未计入3艘待定航次运力）。主要变化在于：①MSC 第3、5周待定航次确认为正常派船；②达飞第4周FAL3由待定暂时计为正常派船，达飞官网显示由"CMA CGM CAURO"虚拟船名执行，船期中统计为18000TEU，后续保 持动态跟踪。此外，中远AEU3 2025年51周~2026年3周船期延误较多。整体而言，1月周均运力达32.2万TEU/周，运力水平不低，略高于年中旺季 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶信宁 | 2025年11月28日 | 全历史分位数 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 价差 | 品种 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -22.80 | 1.82 | 40.50% | 20,30% | H期现价差 | -2.67 | 27.00% | -9.87 | 21.50% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | 16.40% | IC期现价差 | -55.08 | 0.56 | 41.30% | -6.21 | 24.90% | IM期现价差 | -78.45 | 65.00% | 次月-当月 | -15.60 | -2.20 | 27.4096 | 28.00% | | | 李月-当月 | -32.40 ...

Group 1 - The film and theater sector is experiencing a downturn, with Huayi Brothers hitting the daily limit down, and other companies like China Film, Huace Film, Wenguang Holdings, and Ciwen Media also declining [3][5]. - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.11%, Shenzhen Component down 0.04%, and ChiNext down 0.04% [5][6]. - The shipping index (European line) saw a significant increase of over 5.00%, currently reported at 1448.0 points [4]. Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.43% [7][8]. - Semiconductor stocks showed positive movement, with SMIC rising nearly 2%, and the non-ferrous metals sector continued to rise, with Zijin Mining also up nearly 2% [8].