1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports mainly present the daily data of stock index futures spreads, treasury bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures, container shipping industry, and capital flow and key positions changes, including the latest values, changes compared with the previous day, historical quantiles, etc., to help investors understand the market trends and price relationships of different financial products [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price - Spot Spreads**: IF price - spot spread is - 12.96, down 2.91; IH is - 1.79, up 1.44; IC is - 12.54, down 68.71; IM is - 79.17, down 18.94 [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different contracts' inter - period spreads show various changes, such as IF's far - month to current - month spread is - 54.20, down 7.20 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF also have specific values and changes, e.g., CSI 500/CSI 300 is 1.5594, down 0.0025 [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: TS IRR is 1.4442, down 0.0180; TF basis is 1.3160; T basis is 1.0310 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, TS's current - season to next - season spread is 0.0300, down 0.0040 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: TS - TF is - 3.0750, up 0.1170 [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2510 contract is 833.42 yuan/g, down 1.06; AG2510 contract is 9796 yuan/kg, down 50. Foreign COMEX gold is 3680.40 dollars/ounce, up 16.60 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 3639.81 dollars/ounce, up 15.64; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D is 829.72 yuan/g, down 2.19 [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.70, down 1.13; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is - 12, down 13 [3]. - **Ratios, Rates, and Other Data**: COMEX gold/silver ratio is 88.36, down 0.23; 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.04%, down 0.04% [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotes**: For Shanghai - Europe routes, MAERSK's rate is 1786 dollars/FEU, down 65 [5]. - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 1566.46, down 207.1; SCFI (European) is 1315 dollars/TEU, down 166.0 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 contract price is 1527.4, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 132.0, down 207.1 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3299.69 FTEU, unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate is 32.58%, down 1.99% [5]. Capital Flow and Key Positions Changes - No valid data is provided in the given report for this part.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant surge, with the ChiNext Index surpassing 3000 points for the first time in over three years, and the STAR 50 Index showing a remarkable increase of over 5% during the trading session [1][10][4]. A-share Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed an overall upward trend on September 11, with major indices rising to varying degrees, particularly the STAR 50 Index and the ChiNext Index [3]. - The ChiNext Index achieved a breakthrough above 3000 points, marking a new high in nearly three years [10]. - The STAR 50 Index recorded its largest intraday gain since September, exceeding 5% [4]. Key Stocks and Sectors - Key stocks within the STAR market, such as Haiguang Information, saw a significant increase, hitting a "20cm" limit up and reaching a historical high price of 220.84 yuan, with a total market capitalization exceeding 510 billion yuan [6]. - Another major stock, Cambricon Technologies, surged with an intraday increase of over 10%, while SMIC also saw a rise of over 8% [9]. - In terms of sector performance, the telecommunications sector experienced a substantial rise of over 6%, the electronics sector increased by over 5%, and the computer sector rose by over 3% [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares are experiencing an oscillating rebound with the technology sector leading the way. After a significant rally, A-shares may enter a high-level oscillating pattern. Wait for the volatility to further converge before confirming a better entry point [2][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment remains weak due to the tightening of funds. The short - term bond market may still be sensitive to negative news. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the movement of funds and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy [5][7]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations have been digested. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillating state. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band within the range of $40 - 42 [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating. Consider shorting the October contract or engaging in a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [11][12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The price is expected to oscillate. The short - term interest - rate cut boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. The long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support [13][17]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Mid - term, consider shorting at high prices. The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to oscillate widely around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand. The macro - environment provides support, while the fundamental improvement is not strong [21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum and the inflection point of inventory [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price upside is limited, while the low inventory provides support [25][28]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to oscillate widely. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust within a range. The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support, but the mid - term supply is abundant [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. The raw material cost provides support, but the demand is weak [34][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the market is affected by news [38][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The steel price is weak. The rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the support levels around 3100 and 3300 respectively. The steel supply and demand have not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage [41][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish. The supply is expected to recover, and the demand will increase. The low - level port inventory provides support [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to oscillate. The coal mines are resuming production, and the supply and demand are easing. The price may continue to decline in September [47][49]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to oscillate. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is still room for further cuts. The supply will gradually become loose [50][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The high - yield expectation of US soybeans suppresses the price, but the domestic cost provides support. The downside of domestic meal products is limited [53][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The market supply - demand contradiction is limited. The price has limited room to fall, but the overall supply - demand pressure is still large [56][57]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand of corn are weak, and the price is under pressure. The mid - term trend is weak [58][59]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures**: - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares showed an oscillating rebound on Wednesday. The TMT sector was strong, while the chemical sector corrected. The four major equity index futures contracts had mixed performances. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and the monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. The capital is tightening, and the bond market sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the central bank's subsequent attitude [5][6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: US 8 - month PPI data was lower than expected, and the demand for the 10 - year Treasury bond auction was strong. Gold and silver prices showed a high - level oscillation. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical events affect the price. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The spot price of container shipping continued to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index showed different trends. The supply of container ships increased, and the demand was affected by the PMI of different regions. The futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [11][12]. Commodity Futures - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The spot price of copper declined slightly. The US 8 - month PPI data boosted the interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The copper price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate [13][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina declined. The supply was high, the demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and consider shorting at high prices in the mid - term [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum declined slightly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was high, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The aluminum price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate around the peak - season demand [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy was stable. The supply was affected by the season, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc declined. The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the demand was about to enter the peak season. The inventory situation was mixed. The zinc price is expected to oscillate, and the upside is limited [25][27][28]. - **Tin**: The spot price of tin declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel declined. The supply of refined nickel was high, and the demand was stable in some sectors and weak in others. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to adjust within a range [31][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The inventory was slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and pay attention to the raw material and demand [34][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate declined. The supply was affected by various factors, and the demand was stable. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and pay attention to the news [38][39][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The cost and profit situation of steel changed. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was in the off - season and was expected to improve seasonally. The inventory was increasing. The steel price is expected to be affected by the supply of coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore declined slightly. The futures price was stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the demand was expected to increase. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal declined. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was expected to increase. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and decline in September [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke had a mixed performance. The first - round price cut was implemented, and there was still room for further cuts. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to recover. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate [50][51][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The domestic spot price of soybean meal declined slightly, and the trading volume increased. The spot price of rapeseed meal was stable, and the trading volume was zero. The high - yield expectation of US soybeans and various supply - demand factors affected the price. The domestic cost provides support [53][54][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs declined slightly. The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly, and the profit of different breeding modes changed. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the price has limited room to fall [56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn had different trends in different regions. The inventory of old - season corn was tight, and the new - season corn was about to be listed. The demand was weak. The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the mid - term trend is weak [58][59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic liquidity in 2025 is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating rotation of sectors and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive and volatile but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with less volatility but relatively weaker price elasticity. The stock index has been rising since July and may experience short - term shock consolidation, but the probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend is high [2][11]. - The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend. The current demand is in the off - season, and factors such as the expectation of coke price cuts and the low near - far - month price difference put pressure on the market, but policy expectations and the impact of over - production checks provide support [3][23]. - The palm oil price may be under pressure in the short term due to the lower - than - expected exports of Malaysian palm oil in August [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News Concerns of the Day - **International News**: On September 10, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio. Both sides emphasized the importance of the strategic guidance of the heads - of - state diplomacy, proper management of differences, and exploration of practical cooperation to promote the stable development of Sino - US relations [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The average consumer price from January to August decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [6]. - **Industry News**: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed a special rectification action for network chaos in the automotive industry, aiming to strengthen the handling of network chaos such as online water armies, "black public relations", "black mouths", and "fan circles" in the automotive industry [7]. 3.2. Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 9 and 10, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. For example, the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.48% from September 9 to 10, and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.61% [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to have short - term shock consolidation but a high probability of medium - to - long - term upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures prices continued to fall. With the stabilization of the equity market and the gradual tightening of funds, the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The new regulations on fund redemptions also disturbed the market, and long - term treasury bond futures prices hit new lows and are expected to remain weak [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Eight countries decided to increase the daily crude oil production quota by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels of daily production cuts may be partially or fully restored [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The coastal methanol inventory increased significantly, and the overall device operating load increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main production areas, and the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins are running weakly. The supply has shrunk, and the market pressure has eased. The support from downstream inventory replenishment needs to be monitored [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are in shock consolidation, and soda ash futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the futures prices are weak and approaching the spot prices. Attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are strong. The weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Fed, as well as other factors, support the rise of gold. Gold and silver are expected to be strong when the interest rate cut is approaching [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting output is growing, while the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus [21][22]. - **Black Products** - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend, with both pressure and support factors [3][23]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The US soybean has strong support at the bottom, and the domestic raw material supply is expected to be loose [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices may be under pressure in the short term due to lower - than - expected exports from Malaysia in August [3][25]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while the domestic sugar price is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is also dragged down by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [26]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is waiting for new cotton acquisition and traditional peak - season demand guidance, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short term [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is in shock and decline. The spot freight rate of European routes is in the off - season and is expected to continue to decline. The market may be more in a shock state [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical percentile rankings of various futures spreads, prices, and related indicators for different types of futures including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures on September 11, 2025 [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: IF, IH, IC, and IM futures - spot spreads are -12.96, -1.79, -12.54, and -79.17 respectively, with changes of -2.91, 1.44, -68.71, and -18.94 from the previous day [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: For IF, the spreads between different delivery months show various values and changes, such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts being -9.60 with a change of 35.60% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., are presented with their latest values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: IRR values and basis values for TS, TF, T, and TL are provided, along with their changes from the previous trading day and percentile rankings since listing [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Inter - delivery spreads for different contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are given, including values, changes, and percentile rankings [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their latest values, changes, and percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Domestic Futures**: AU2510 and AG2510 contracts have closing prices of 833.42 yuan/gram and 9796 yuan/kilogram respectively, with price drops of -1.06 and -50 from the previous day [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX gold and silver主力 contracts have closing prices of 3680.40 and 41.65 dollars/ounce respectively, with price increases of 16.60 and 0.30 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold and silver, and Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold and silver spot prices are presented with their price changes [3]. - **Basis**: The basis values of gold and silver, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings, are provided [3]. - **Ratios, Yields, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios, US Treasury yields, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are presented with their latest values and changes [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory and position data of domestic and foreign precious metal futures are given, including their changes and percentage changes [3]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes of different shipping companies show price changes, such as Maersk's price dropping from 1851 to 1786 dollars/FEU [5]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes and Shanghai export container freight indexes for different routes are presented with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are presented with their changes and percentage changes [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View - The SCFIS dropped below 1800 points in the current week, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline. Online quotes for the first half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price falling below $2000 per 40 - foot container. The price of the European route shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, and the decline exceeds market expectations, putting significant pressure on the October contract. However, the current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, with sufficient expectations for price cuts. The oversold rebound on Tuesday might be boosted by the expectation of increased empty sailings during the National Day. But since the scale of empty sailings this year has not significantly exceeded that of last year and the overall shipping capacity has actually increased, the boosting effect may not be strong enough. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has fallen below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks. Online quotes in early September have been further reduced. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a smooth decline in the off - season, which puts pressure on the 10 - contract. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and the oversold rebound on Tuesday may be due to the expectation of increased National Day empty sailings. However, the boosting effect may be limited. The 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, and there may be low - buying opportunities in December [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 25th to August 29th, the overall China export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing divergent trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. The European route's market sentiment was weak, with the freight rate falling. The Mediterranean route followed the European route, with the freight rate dropping. The North American route's freight rate rebounded. There were also geopolitical events in the Middle East and the US's statement on the Palestinian issue [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route decreased from 1990.2 on August 25th to 1773.6 on September 1st, a decrease of 10.9%. The index for the US - West route decreased from 1041.38 to 1013.9, a decrease of 2.6% [12]. 3.2 Futures Market for Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Provided trading data for EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 4th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the market is in the process of bottom - building with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3]. - After the bullish sentiment is exhausted, combined with the continuous decline of spot freight rates and the repeated Middle - East situation, the market stops rising and starts to fall. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. - On September 3, the main contract 2510 closed at 1323.0, with a decline of 3.04%, a trading volume of 25,500 lots, and an open interest of 51,900 lots, a decrease of 2211 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected 50.7 [2]. - The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The US - China tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - The Israeli - Palestinian conflict situation: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Israeli army is preparing to attack Gaza City, and the Israeli army is conducting large - scale reserve recruitment [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts from 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].