农产品日报 | 2025-07-15 现货购销冷清，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2992元/吨，较前日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.54%；菜粕2509合约2659元/吨，较前 日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.99%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-82， 较前日变动-16；江苏地区豆粕现货2810元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-182，较前日变动-16；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-192，较前日变动-16。福建地区菜粕现货价格2660 元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM09+1，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部发布7月供需报告，将2025/26年度美国大豆产量下调500万蒲至43亿蒲，维持大豆单产 52.5蒲/英亩不变；大豆压榨量上调5000万蒲至25.4亿蒲；大豆出口量下调7000万蒲至17.5亿蒲；大豆期末库存上调 1500万蒲至3.1亿蒲。2025/26年度全球大豆产量为4.2768亿吨，较上月调高86万吨，比上一年度增加 ...

7月11日，2025 年"绿养郁南"名 优土特产评选活 动专家评审会在 郁南县电子商务 园举办。来自农 业科研、食品加 工、品牌营销等 领域专家齐聚郁 南，对全县各镇 申报的名优土特 产展开评审，旨 在挖掘具有地方 特色的名优产 做好土特产文 章！"绿养郁 南"名优土特产 评选驱动品牌升 级_南方+_南方 plus 品，推动"绿养 郁南"区域公用 品牌应用与推 广，以品牌引领 农业产业升级。 2025年"绿养郁南"名优土特产评选活动专家评审会现场 郁南县地处粤 西，生态资源禀 赋优越，是广东 省重要的农产品 产区。近年来， 郁南县深入实施 品牌强农战 略，"绿养郁 南"区域公用品 牌影响力持续提 升。以国家地理 标志产品"郁南 无核黄皮"为龙 头，优质稻米、 砂糖桔、肉桂、 竹笋、南药等特 色农产品蓬勃发 展，形成了一批 具有地方特色和 市场口碑的优质 产品。本次评选 活动正是为了系 统梳理、挖掘和 培育这些名优土 特产，为产业发 展注入新动能。 自活动启动以 来，吸引了全县 15个镇的农业企 业、合作社、家 庭农场等超百家 经营主体踊跃申 报。评选对象涵 盖郁南县辖区内 农产品、食品和 农副产品等品 类。据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Women's Entrepreneurship Microloan" program in Guangdong has significantly supported women's entrepreneurship and employment over the past 15 years, benefiting 158,000 women directly and indirectly creating job opportunities for 1.58 million women [6][19]. Group 1: Program Overview - The program was established in 2011, providing subsidized microloans to women with local residency in Guangdong, aged under 60, and possessing certain labor skills and entrepreneurial capabilities [8][9]. - The maximum loan amount for individual women is 100,000 RMB, while exemplary women-led cooperatives can receive up to 300,000 RMB [13][15]. - The total funding allocated by the provincial government for this program has reached 1.7994 billion RMB, with 159 billion RMB in microloans disbursed over 15 years [17][19]. Group 2: Success Stories - Entrepreneur Yang Mei successfully expanded her seafood business with a 300,000 RMB microloan, enhancing production capabilities and establishing a sales network covering over 1,000 stores nationwide, achieving an annual output value of 10 million RMB [34][30]. - Song Daoyu, known as the "Ginger Queen," improved her cooperative's production efficiency and sales from 2.5 million RMB to over 5 million RMB annually after receiving a 300,000 RMB loan for equipment upgrades [50][51]. - Yan Xiaocan leveraged a 300,000 RMB microloan to enhance her e-commerce operations, resulting in a significant increase in sales and the training of over 300 individuals in e-commerce, benefiting more than 100 local farmers [72][70]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The program has created a multiplier effect in the local economy, enabling women entrepreneurs to contribute to agricultural modernization and rural revitalization [98]. - The financial support has led to increased production capacities and job creation, with significant growth in sales and profitability for various businesses involved in agriculture and related sectors [93][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Trump's tariff pressure is escalating, leading to games among countries in negotiation, counter - measures, and buffering. Domestically, China's June economic data is better than expected, with exports and imports improving and the trade surplus expanding. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold is in shock, while silver has started a catch - up rally, and it is expected that the catch - up rally of silver will continue [4][5]. - Copper: The LME's visible inventory has increased, and Lun copper is under pressure at high levels. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has increased significantly, and Shanghai aluminum has reduced positions and adjusted. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. - Alumina: There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and alumina will maintain a shock [10]. - Zinc: With the macro and micro factors in a tug - of - war, zinc prices will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Lead: Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. - Tin: The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. - Industrial silicon: Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mine - end disturbances is limited, and lithium prices will oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event [17][18]. - Nickel: The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. - Crude oil: There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. - Steel products: The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices of steel products will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. - Iron ore: The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. - Palm oil: India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's tariff pressure is escalating. The EU warns of counter - tariffs on $720 billion of US products, Trump threatens Russia with 100% secondary tariffs, Brazil requests tariff reduction and postponement, and the US starts a 232 investigation on drone and polysilicon imports. The dollar index rose above 98, and the stock and commodity markets had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - Domestically: China's June exports and imports were better than expected, the trade surplus expanded, and the financial data marginally improved. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce on Monday. The current gold price is in shock [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce on Monday. Silver has started a catch - up rally, reaching a new high in nearly 14 years. It is expected that the catch - up rally will continue [4][5]. 3.3 Base Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract was weakly oscillating, and Lun copper oscillated around $9700. The LME inventory rose to 109,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415 yuan per ton, down 1.45%. The social inventory of aluminum increased significantly, and the market's long - position confidence declined. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3145 yuan per ton, down 0.6%. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected to maintain a shock [10]. Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and rose after a low opening at night. The overall zinc price will oscillate at a low level due to the tug - of - war between macro and micro factors [11]. Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract fluctuated greatly during the day and first declined then rose at night. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. 3.4 Industrial Products Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the futures price of lithium carbonate was running strongly, and the spot price rose slightly. The impact of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event is uncertain, and lithium prices will oscillate [17][18]. 3.5 Energy Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated weakly. There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. 3.6 Steel Products Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated. The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated. The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. 3.7 Agricultural Products Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract also rose. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王涛辉 Z0019938 2025年7月15日 | | | | | | | 田洞 | | | | | | | 7月11日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | 8230 我们 江苏一级 8240 -10 -0.12% | | | | | | | Y2509 7994 7986 8 0.10% 期价 | | | | | | | 是差 Y2509 236 254 -18 -7.09% | | | | | | | 现货基差报价 江苏6月 09+200 09 +210 -10 - | | | | | | | -1.76% | | | | | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | 7月11日 | | | | | | | -0.34% | 广东24度 8770 8800 -30 现价 | | | | | | P2509 | | 期价 8748 8682 ୧୧ 0.76% | | | | | -81.36% | | | | | | | 广东6月 | | | | 现货墓差报价 09+150 ...

2025年07月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆优良率高于预期，或调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅波动 | 8 | | 棉花：缺乏明显驱动，期价震荡 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季反弹预期兑现，淘汰情绪下降 | 11 | | 生猪：维持震荡 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 15 日 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,748 | 0.76% | 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of the sweet potato industry in Hainan Province is significantly enhanced by technological advancements, leading to increased production, improved quality, and economic benefits for local farmers [2][4]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - The introduction of high-quality sweet potato varieties, such as "Chuan Shu" and "Gao Xi 14," has resulted in yields reaching up to 12,000 pounds per acre [2]. - Scientific methods for planting, fertilization, and pest control are being implemented, including soil testing for precise fertilization and a comprehensive pest management system [3][4]. - The use of high-temperature healing technology has extended the shelf life of sweet potatoes from one month to over six months, reducing loss rates from 15% to 10% [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The sweet potato industry in Hainan has achieved an annual production value of 4 billion yuan, benefiting approximately 50,000 farming households [4]. - The average annual growth rate of sweet potato production is around 10%, with a significant increase in the quality of the produce, gaining consumer recognition [3][4]. - The successful export of 152 tons of sweet potatoes to Canada demonstrates the industry's ability to penetrate international markets, contributing to local economic growth [3][4]. Group 3: Quality Assurance and Traceability - The establishment of a quality safety traceability platform using IoT and big data allows consumers to track the entire lifecycle of sweet potato products [4]. - The integration of technology throughout the planting, processing, and distribution stages reflects a modernized approach to the sweet potato industry in Hainan [4].

墨西哥经济部：将支持番茄生产商开拓新的国际市场。 ...

Core Insights - The "Highland Apple Juice" from Jiuzhizhen Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. has been recognized as one of the "2025 Hangzhou Specialty Souvenirs" [1][2] - The evaluation aimed to enhance consumer confidence in Hangzhou and promote the theme of "satisfactory consumption" [1][2] - The selection process involved nearly 200 companies and 101 candidate products, with only 59 making it to the final list [1][2] Group 1 - The Highland Apple Juice stood out due to its unique selling points of being sourced from 3000 meters above sea level and having no additives [2] - Other notable products included advanced technology items like Hikvision's sonar fish finder and NetEase's AI answering pen, emphasizing a blend of innovation and social responsibility in the selection criteria [2] - The product is available for purchase in physical stores and online platforms, enhancing its visibility and accessibility to consumers [2] Group 2 - The initiative traces back to 2022 when the company identified high-quality apples in Garze, Sichuan, during a support program from Hangzhou [3] - The company has implemented a "pre-order" model to secure 5 million pounds of apples, ensuring a stable supply chain and increased farmer income [3] - Future plans include developing more products from Garze, such as matsutake mushrooms, to further strengthen the economic ties between Hangzhou and Garze [3]

墨西哥综合指数收跌0.41%，墨西哥比索兑美元维持0.55%的跌幅，报18.7388比索。 特朗普政府针对进口墨西哥番茄下达新的反倾销关税（调查）命令。 对大部分进口自墨西哥的番茄实施17%的关税。 在美上市iShares安硕MSCI墨西哥ETF在美股盘后跌0.44%。 美国商务部宣布，退出2019年与墨西哥达成的协议。 该协议与新鲜番茄的贸易有关。 ...