Core Viewpoint - The development of brand agriculture is essential for agricultural advancement, shifting focus from "selling products" to "selling value" to enhance farmers' income and promote rural revitalization [1][4]. Group 1: Brand Agriculture Development - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of brand agriculture, which has sparked discussions on transforming local specialties into keys for rural revitalization [1]. - The example of "Ganyu Hairy Crab" illustrates how brand effects can significantly increase purchase prices, leading to an annual sales figure exceeding 3 billion yuan [1]. - The establishment of over 1,100 seafood e-commerce businesses in Ganyu, generating annual sales of 5 billion yuan, highlights the role of brand agriculture in encouraging young people to return to their hometowns for entrepreneurship [1]. Group 2: Strategies for Enhancing Brand Agriculture - A comprehensive approach is necessary for strengthening brand agriculture, including setting higher standards, developing deep processing, and leveraging e-commerce and cold chain logistics [1]. - The case of Yixing tea demonstrates the effectiveness of local standards and quality management in enhancing brand value and promoting rural revitalization [2]. - The need for national agricultural product geographical indication certification and standardized production is emphasized to enhance regional public brand value [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - There are existing challenges such as insufficient brand influence, lack of profit-sharing mechanisms, and limited marketing channels for agricultural brands [2][3]. - Recommendations include strengthening top-level design for brand cultivation, improving brand authorization and quality traceability systems, and enhancing the connection between farmers and brand benefits [3]. - The importance of policy support for brand certification and processing facility construction is highlighted, along with the need for technological empowerment to improve product quality [3]. Group 4: Cultural Integration and Market Mechanisms - The integration of regional cultural characteristics with agricultural industries is crucial for creating higher value-added products [4]. - The development of cultural brands, as seen in Xiwang Village, showcases how traditional industries can drive rural revitalization and transform impoverished areas into thriving communities [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of production, demand, CPI, and PPI. It points out that there are seasonal fluctuations in production, low - base effects affect the real - estate market, and there are price changes in various commodities due to multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical events [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption shows a seasonal decline. On February 3, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 81.4 million tons, a 5.7% decrease from January 27. On January 30, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 222.0 million tons, a 7.5% decrease from January 22. With the approaching of the Spring Festival and rising temperatures, power plant daily consumption may further decline [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level. On January 30, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.0%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 23, while the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 89.8% on January 30, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from January 23. Due to the Spring Festival, demand is almost stagnant, but steel mills' production remains relatively high, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [16]. - The tire operating rate remains stable. On January 29, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 74.8%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from January 22. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has a seasonal decline. On January 29, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.2%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of downstream looms was 42.4%, an 8.8 - percentage - point decrease from January 22 [18]. 3.1.2 Demand: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has a passive increase due to the low - base effect. From February 1 - 3, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 18.7 million square meters, an 181.0% increase from the same period in January, a 1615.3% increase from the same period in February last year, a 32.1% decrease from the same period in February 2024, and a 42.6% decrease from the same period in February 2023. Sales areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities increased by 4474.6%, 1028.3%, and 2830.0% year - on - year respectively [23]. - The auto market is weakening. In January, retail sales decreased by 28% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 35% year - on - year. The change in the auto trade - in policy has affected consumers' purchasing willingness [27]. - Steel prices are fluctuating weakly. On February 3, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, increased by 1.1%, decreased by 0.6%, and decreased by 0.3% respectively compared with January 27. Steel inventory is accumulating more slowly than in previous years [33]. - Cement prices are hitting new lows. On February 3, the national cement price index decreased by 0.8% compared with January 27. Cement demand is weak in different regions due to weather and other factors, but the year - on - year decline in prices is narrowing [34]. - Glass prices remain stable. On February 3, the active glass futures contract price was 1073 yuan/ton, the same as on January 27. The month - on - month decline in glass prices has occurred, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing [39]. - The decline in container shipping freight rate indices has further expanded. On January 30, the CCFI index decreased by 2.7% compared with January 23, and the SCFI index decreased by 9.7%. Due to the long holiday in Asian countries during the Spring Festival and reduced expected shipments before the Spring Festival, there is an oversupply of shipping capacity in the short - term, and freight rates are under pressure [42]. 3.2 Inflation: Intensified Fluctuations in Industrial Product Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Turn Downward - Pork prices turn downward. On February 3, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, a 0.5% decrease from January 27. Although it is the pre - festival stocking peak, the short - term support from consumption is limited, and the supply pressure is still large [49]. - The agricultural product price index is fluctuating. On February 3, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with January 27. Different agricultural products have different price trends. Since February, the agricultural product wholesale price index has increased year - on - year and month - on - month [53]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise and Then Fall - Oil prices rise and then fall. On February 3, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.9 and 63.2 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 0.5% and 1.3% increase from January 27. Geopolitical factors have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, and short - term volatility will continue [57]. - Copper prices rise while aluminum prices fall. On February 3, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 2.5% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with January 27. The domestic commodity index has a month - on - month decline [64]. - Industrial product prices have different month - on - month trends. Since February, the prices of wire rod, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial products have decreased, with rebar and cement having relatively large declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices is narrowing [68].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一震荡调整,本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强,国产大豆计划拍卖60608吨，全 部成交，底价4050元/吨,成交均价4298元/吨,溢价210-310元/吨。近期地缘与宏观风险事件比较集中，且方 向尚不明确,需要关注宏观对整体商品的引导。近期豆一也受到宏观因素的影响,波动性增 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that India has agreed to reduce tariffs on U.S. exports, specifically cutting industrial tariffs from 13.5% to zero, while maintaining some protective measures on agricultural products [1][5][9] - The reduction in tariffs is driven by India's economic pressures, including a significant drop in foreign investment from $7.8 billion to $1.2 billion and a struggling domestic market, which has led to a need to maintain exports to the U.S., its largest export market [5][7] - The U.S. has employed a "carrot and stick" approach, suggesting that tariff reductions could lead to fewer trade issues, particularly regarding India's purchases of Russian oil, which the U.S. has previously threatened with penalties [7][10] Group 2 - India's decision to lower tariffs is strategic, allowing it to satisfy U.S. demands while preserving its political base by keeping agricultural protections intact, crucial for the upcoming elections [9][10] - The tariff reduction aligns with India's "Make in India" initiative, potentially lowering costs for domestic manufacturers and attracting foreign investment [9] - India's silence on the agreement may indicate a cautious approach, allowing it to gauge public reaction and retain negotiation leverage with the U.S. [10]

Core Insights - The announcement from the Qingyun County Market Supervision Administration details the results of food safety inspections conducted in 2026, revealing that out of 140 batches of food tested, 131 were compliant while 9 were found to be non-compliant [3]. Summary by Category Inspection Results - A total of 140 batches of food were inspected, covering 17 categories including convenience foods, fruits, vegetables, and meat products [3]. - 131 batches passed the inspection, while 9 batches failed due to violations of national food safety standards, specifically concerning pesticide residues such as thiamethoxam and bifenthrin [3]. Non-compliant Products - The main issues identified in the non-compliant products included: - Thiamethoxam levels exceeding the standard of 0.05 mg/kg, with detected levels of 0.13 mg/kg in chili and 0.068 mg/kg in eggplant [3]. - Bifenthrin levels also exceeded the standard, with 0.11 mg/kg found in oranges and 0.25 mg/kg in another batch of oranges [3]. - Other non-compliant products included ginger and potatoes, with pesticide residues above the permissible limits [3]. Actions Taken - The Qingyun County Market Supervision Administration has initiated legal actions against the producers and sellers of the non-compliant products listed in the announcement [3].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The external environment has stabilized, and the oil and fat market is oscillating. The market has returned to the supply - demand pattern. Currently in the production - reduction season, the production - reduction data of Malaysian origin from various information agencies is in line with expectations. Coupled with positive factors from the Indonesian origin, palm oil has strong long - term price support. However, after the recent rapid price increase, there is pressure for price correction [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9094.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.89% from the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8086.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan or - 0.07%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9215.00 yuan/ton, a change of +79.00 yuan or +0.86% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9030.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.89%, and the spot basis was P05 - 64.00, with no change. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8380.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton or - 0.24%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 294.00, a change of - 14.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan or +0.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 755.00, a change of - 19.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31 were estimated at 944,885 tons, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31 were 1,375,718 tons, an increase of 14.89% from the previous month [2] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued an opinion on promoting rural revitalization. It includes strengthening market monitoring and information release of agricultural products, coordinating market - based purchases and policy - based storage, and promoting reasonable prices of important agricultural products. It also involves setting minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat and improving the target price policy for cotton [2] - Indian palm oil imports last month jumped to 766,000 tons, the highest since October 2025, compared with 507,204 tons in December [2] - According to SPPOMA, from January 1 - 31, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 13.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [2] - The CEO of the US Soybean Export Association said that global demand growth is beneficial to the outlook of US soybean exports this year. While China remains the largest market, its demand for US soybeans has declined, and demand from countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, and South American countries is growing [2] Group 4: Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a "Neutral" stance [3]

据农业农村部监测，截至2月4日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.38元/公斤，较前一日 下降1.0%；鸡蛋平均价格为8.65元/公斤，较前一日上升0.8%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, but the details of the trade agreement remain unclear, leading to uncertainty for businesses and investors [1][4][5] - Indian officials have stated that sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy are protected under the new trade agreement, but specific details have not been disclosed [8][9] - The ambiguity surrounding the agreement includes claims about India purchasing $500 billion worth of U.S. products and stopping the purchase of Russian oil, which have not been confirmed by Indian authorities [1][9] Group 2 - The trade agreement is seen as a potential pathway for increased cooperation between the U.S. and India, but the lack of detailed terms has left many companies, especially Indian exporters, in a precarious position [5][9] - The U.S. dairy products may face challenges entering the Indian market due to cultural sensitivities regarding animal feed, which could impact millions of Indian dairy farmers [6][9] - India has been gradually reducing its oil imports from Russia, with projections indicating a decrease from 1.2 million barrels per day in January to 800,000 barrels per day by March [10]

Group 1 - The "2026 Fuchun Mountain Residence New Year Goods Fair" was held at Fuyang Sports Center, showcasing over a thousand agricultural products from more than 70 enterprises across 24 towns, with local athletes promoting the region's specialties [1] - Fuyang District has developed a public brand strategy centered around "Fuchun Mountain Residence," leading to a shift from scattered operations to brand-oriented development, resulting in an annual output value of over 4 billion yuan for local specialties [1] - The upgraded Fuchun Mountain Residence Agricultural Product Brand Pavilion achieved online and offline sales exceeding 18 million yuan in 2025, contributing to overall sales surpassing 1 billion yuan for participating enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Fuyang District Agricultural and Rural Bureau plans to enhance the "one pavilion, multiple points, and online" sales system, extending the "1+N" brand network to towns for unified promotion and distribution [2] - Future initiatives include integrating sports event traffic resources and enhancing digital marketing to develop unique agricultural product IPs, aiming to have six 1 billion yuan-level industrial chains and over three 100 million yuan-level specialty product clusters by 2027 [2] - The goal is to make local specialties a key driver for rural revitalization and a means for farmers to increase their income [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets have recovered, but the market sentiment is still in the process of recovery. [2] - The central bank's bond - buying and reverse - repurchase operations have supported the short - end of the bond market, while the long - end is affected by the rebound of the equity market. [2] - Precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded, but the confidence of gold bulls needs to be restored, and silver prices will fluctuate widely. [2] - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and the prices of iron ore and coking coal are under pressure. [2] - The prices of most chemical products are in a volatile state, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different products. [2] - Agricultural product prices are also in a state of volatility, with different trends for different varieties. [2] 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - After the concentrated release of risks, the equity market has rebounded, but the positions have not increased. It is in a stage of restorative rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call option positions. [2] Bonds - The rebound of the equity market has slightly suppressed the sentiment of long - term bonds. The central bank's operations have supported the short - end. It is expected that the T2603 contract will fluctuate between 108 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should be range - bound operations, and curve strategies should focus on flattening. It is recommended to arrange position transfers before the Spring Festival. [2] Precious Metals - Gold has stopped falling and is in the stage of bottom establishment, and can be allocated at low prices; silver prices will fluctuate widely between 75 - 95 dollars. Platinum and palladium will follow the rebound of gold and enter a consolidation stage, and short - term waiting for the direction to clear is recommended. [2] Shipping - The EC of container shipping has risen on the disk, and cautious waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] Steel and Related Products - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are under pressure after the completion of steel mill replenishment. The prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile decline. [2] Chemical Products - Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have support at low levels, while short - fiber and bottle - chip are affected by supply - demand expectations. Some products like LLDPE and PP are in a state of supply - demand imbalance and price volatility. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a state of loose supply, while cotton prices are relatively stable and long positions can be held. [2]