研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/22 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2026/01/15 2180 2290 2240 2450 -5 10 383 2750 2800 90 -70 2026/01/16 2180 2290 2240 2450 9 10 390 2750 2800 100 -70 2026/01/19 2180 2290 2260 2440 9 0 366 2750 2820 100 -70 2026/01/20 2180 2280 2260 2430 0 0 357 2750 2820 105 -70 2026/01/21 2180 2280 2260 2430 -3 0 326 2750 2820 104 -70 变化 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -31 0 0 -1 0 【行情分析】： 玉米：元旦过后，市场交投情绪依旧偏稳，政策性轮储继续补充市场玉米供应。短期看，在产地依旧挺价惜售的氛围下，虽然有储备轮储补 充，但是供应增量依旧受限。再加上当期渠道整体库存量不高，下游又有备货的预期的支撑下，玉米价格有望维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories. For example, eggs, red dates, and live pigs are in the oscillating - bearish category; soda ash, glass, and sugar are in the oscillating category; synthetic rubber, lithium carbonate, and 30 - year government bonds are in the oscillating - bullish category [5]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures varieties are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish categories. For instance, Shanghai gold, soybean No. 2, and soybean oil are in the bearish category; rebar, coking coal, and soybean No. 1 are in the oscillating category; Shanghai copper, manganese - silicon, and rubber are in the bullish category [9]. - Various macro - economic events have impacts on the financial market. For example, the agreement on Greenland by the US President Trump leads to a rise in US stocks and a fall in spot silver; the speech of NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun on AI infrastructure construction has implications for related industries; the EU's new network security policy and China's response also affect the market [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, and profit - taking operations can be considered. The A - share market shows an oscillating upward trend, but if there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line is not formed, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ultra - long - end may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite. The short - end is supported by the capital market, and the overall idea of the central bank is still to expand credit, with bond yields remaining steep [18]. 3.2 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. In the medium term, the domestic mine operating rate is capped, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: For silicon - iron, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term as there is a small supply gap. For manganese - silicon, it is suggested to hold short positions from previous high levels and not to enter new single - sided positions [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: It is advisable to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity production. For glass, pay attention to the implementation of production line changes and the linkage between the spot and futures markets [22]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Shanghai Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see, and hold previous short positions. The lead inventory is increasing, and the consumption is poor, but there may be some support if the price continues to decline [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, with demand improving and supply being restricted [25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and oscillates, waiting for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options. Polysilicon may continue to price the rectification of anti - involution and oscillate weakly [26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is in a short - term consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended. The supply is currently loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking and the decline in开工 rates [28][29]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is in a season of high supply and demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [30][31]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the pre - holiday spot price of eggs may weaken. The futures of the 02 - 03 contracts are for the post - Spring Festival off - season, with limited upside space. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline, and the far - month contracts may weaken [32][33]. - **Apples**: The futures may run strongly. The current apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [34][35]. - **Corn**: The price has large differences in the market, and short - term trading is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy grain release, and import supplements, and is likely to oscillate within a range [36]. - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to closely monitor the performance of the consumer market during the peak season, and currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Live Pigs**: The market sentiment has peaked, and the spot price is likely to decline. It is advisable to consider shorting near - month contracts on rallies [38]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support the price, but the supply surplus is still severe. As the geopolitical premium fades, the price may weaken, and attention should be paid to Iran's actions [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The short - term trading focus is on the impact of geopolitically - influenced crude oil prices [41]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and weak demand, but the upstream losses may support a small - scale rebound. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [42]. - **Rubber**: The pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises and the upcoming suspension of production in overseas producing areas may support the price. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [43]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It may oscillate strongly due to the good fundamentals of butadiene. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options [44]. - **Methanol**: The short - term inventory is decreasing, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for far - month contracts after a pullback [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: The operating rate and inventory are high, and the price of liquid chlorine is firm, but the support from the downstream of liquid chlorine is uncertain. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [47]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the trend of crude oil and may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in the premium of raw materials [48]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market is currently strong due to sentiment and supply disruptions, but the expectation of weakening demand is increasing. It is advisable to consider positive spreads between the May and September contracts of PX and PTA on dips [49]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and the import cost provides support. In the short term, the downside space is limited, but in the long term, it is advisable to consider going short with a light position [50]. - **Pulp**: The spot market trading sentiment has weakened, and the price has corrected. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to international and macro factors [52]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [53]. - **Urea**: The spot market trading atmosphere has worsened in the short term, but the market is still relatively optimistic about the future. It remains to be seen whether the futures can maintain a strong trend before the Spring Festival [54].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the "Express Delivery into Villages" initiative in Huan County, which has improved logistics and connectivity for rural residents, facilitating easier access to goods and services [1][2][3] Group 2 - Huan County has established 289 village-level express service points, achieving full coverage of administrative villages, addressing previous logistical challenges due to difficult terrain and transportation issues [2] - The initiative not only enhances the convenience of life for villagers but also creates new opportunities for rural industrial development, allowing local agricultural products to reach broader markets through e-commerce [3] - The county has developed 11 new integrated logistics routes and built 21 convenience service stations, with projected express delivery volume reaching 7.3786 million pieces and business revenue of 23 million yuan by 2025 [3]

Group 1 - The 110th Panama-Pacific International Exposition (China Region) and the 12th World Chinese Business Forum were held in Sanya, Hainan from January 6 to 9, 2026, focusing on "Inheriting a Century of Brands, Revitalizing the National Economy" [1][6] - The event gathered representatives from UN NGOs, various countries' Chinese business communities, and diplomatic missions, highlighting the achievements of Chinese brands and discussing new economic dynamics and the role of Hainan Free Trade Port [1][2] Group 2 - Key leaders from the Chinese business community emphasized Hainan Free Trade Port's unique policy advantages and geographical conditions, positioning it as a core platform for international competition and promoting national brands globally [2][5] - The event's international influence was acknowledged by representatives from various UN organizations, who recognized the exposition's contributions to global cultural exchange and sustainable development over the past century [8][10] Group 3 - The awards ceremony recognized outstanding Chinese brands, with 18 companies selected from hundreds of applicants across various sectors, including food and beverage, textiles, and modern services, showcasing the high standards and international recognition of Chinese modern service industries [22][24] - The ceremony also featured the presentation of the "International Heritage and Contribution Award" and the "Outstanding Contribution Award for Global Cultural and Economic Exchange," underscoring the committee's international credibility and influence [13][14] Group 4 - The event served as a significant platform for Chinese brands to gain international recognition, with many institutions and enterprises forming partnerships and signing agreements during the event [26] - The successful hosting of the exposition reflects the enduring spirit of the century-old event and the strong international appeal of Hainan Free Trade Port, aiming to foster open cooperation and win-win development [26]

转自：贵州日报 凤和祥鸡蛋期货交割厂库的成功设立与交割业务的顺利落地，为区域特色农业产品对接资本市场打造了 可复制、可推广的样本。"本次交割严格遵循交易所规范，达到了期货市场对农产品标准化、可追溯化 的要求。"西南期货贵阳中山西路营业部总经理朱劲筑说。 此次交割，迈出了贵州农产品借助期货工具提升产品标准化与抗风险能力的重要一步，也实现了今年贵 州期货市场交割的"开门红"。 本报讯（记者 申川）日前，贵州凤和祥农业发展有限公司一批经严格检验的优质鸡蛋顺利通过期货交 割核验，标志着我省首单鸡蛋期货交割业务正式落地。 贵州凤和祥农业发展有限公司鸡蛋交割库位于黔东南州从江县贯洞镇。交割现场，期货买家随机抽选出 十箱鸡蛋，逐一称好重量登记，检查蛋品质量。两名交割库工人，仔细测算净重，结算交割数量及把握 品控。大连商品交易所工作人员到现场全程协助交割。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic growth is characterized by slower steel inventory accumulation compared to previous years, with power plant daily consumption fluctuating at a high level, while inflation shows a nationwide increase in pork prices and oil prices oscillating within a range [2][3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Economic Growth: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years 3.1.1 Production: High - level Fluctuation of Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption is fluctuating at a high level. On January 20, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 857,000 tons, a 3.8% increase from January 13. On January 16, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.152 million tons, a 5.3% decrease from January 8 [5][12] - The overall blast furnace operating rate has declined. On January 16, the national blast furnace operating rate was 78.8%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 9, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from January 9. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 0.8 percentage points to 90.8% on January 16 compared to January 9 [5][16] - The tire operating rate has significantly rebounded. On January 15, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.9%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from January 8, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 73.4%, a 7.6 - percentage - point increase from January 8. Meanwhile, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline [5][19] 3.1.2 Demand: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 20, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 160,000 square meters, a 48.0% decrease from the same period in December, a 39.5% decrease from the same period in January last year, and a 38.4% decrease from the same period in January 2024 [5][25] - The retail growth of the automotive market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][29] - Steel prices have declined weakly. On January 20, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively compared to January 13. The inventory accumulation of steel is slower than in previous years [5][34] - Cement prices have continued to break previous lows. On January 20, the national cement price index decreased by 0.6% compared to January 13, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions showing slightly weaker performance than the national average [5][37] - The glass price has ended its rebound. On January 20, the active glass futures contract price was 1,064 yuan/ton, a 4.9% decrease from January 13 [5][42] - The near - end decline of the container shipping freight rate index has widened. On January 16, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][46] 3.2 Inflation: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices - Pork prices have increased nationwide. On January 20, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.5 yuan/kg, a 2.4% increase from January 13. The month - on - month price has turned upward [5][50] - The agricultural product price index has increased seasonally before the Spring Festival. On January 20, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.6% compared to January 13. By variety, the price increases are in the order of eggs (5.7%) > pork (2.4%) > vegetables (2.4%) > fruits (1.3%) > mutton (0.7%) > beef (0.4%) > chicken (- 1.3%) [5][54] 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Price Oscillation within a Range - Oil prices are oscillating within a range. On January 20, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.1 and $60.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.9% and 1.3% decrease from January 13 [5][57] - Copper and aluminum prices have declined. On January 20, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.3% and 1.5% respectively compared to January 13. The domestic commodity index has turned upward month - on - month [5][61] - Industrial product prices have shown mixed month - on - month changes. Since January, the prices of glass, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial product prices have decreased month - on - month. Most of the year - on - year declines in industrial product prices have converged [64]

Group 1: Power Investment and Construction Industry - The core viewpoint is that power investment is entering an accelerated cycle during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment expected to reach a historical high of 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2][5][6] - The investment plan will focus on strengthening the power grid platform, accelerating the construction of ultra-high voltage direct current transmission channels, enhancing distribution network construction, and solidifying digital infrastructure [5][6] - The State Grid's investment in 2023 was 538.1 billion yuan, projected to increase to 609.2 billion yuan in 2024, and exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][5][6] Group 2: Recommendations for Key Companies - It is recommended to focus on leading state-owned enterprises with capabilities in power engineering contracting and deep involvement in grid and renewable energy construction, such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering [2][6] - These companies have a strong foundation in ultra-high voltage transmission projects, energy base construction, and renewable energy stations, making them core players in the State Grid's investment system [6] - The expected high intensity of grid investment combined with the continuous expansion of renewable energy installations will directly boost the order scale and project volume for these companies [6] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - The pig farming sector has seen a 4.9% decline, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction, with the number of pigs slaughtered in 2025 reaching 71.973 million, a 2.4% increase year-on-year [10][11] - The price of pigs has recently risen to 13.25 yuan/kg, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, while the price of piglets has also increased, suggesting a weakening of capacity reduction expectations [10][11] - The industry is undergoing a policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, with a focus on high-quality development and cost-leading enterprises expected to enjoy excess profits [11]

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Paper Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various soft commodities are different, with some facing adjustment pressure and others showing recovery trends. Overall, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most commodities [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today. After previous increases, it may continue to adjust due to general downstream demand and uncertain reduction in Xinjiang planting area. As of end - December, national cotton commercial inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons month - on - month and 9.96 million tons year - on - year. In December, domestic cotton imports were 18 million tons, up 4.41 million tons year - on - year and 6.13 million tons month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian market focuses on next season's production. Expected lower rainfall in Q1 and reduced sugar - making ratio may lead to less sugar production in 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall. Production and sales progress is slow. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [3] Apple - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. During Spring Festival stocking, procurement of farmers' apples was less. As of January 16, national cold - storage apple inventory was 655.57 million tons, down 6.93% year - on - year. Last week's de - stocking volume was 17.8 million tons, down 50.36% year - on - year. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR futures prices rose slightly, butadiene rubber BR futures price rose sharply. Global natural rubber supply is in a reduction period. Chinese tire start - up rate rebounded last week. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 58.49 million tons. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures fell slightly today. Due to weak downstream demand, short - term fundamentals are average. As of January 15, Chinese paper pulp port inventory was 201.4 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last period. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [7] Logs - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. External quotation decreased, and short - term arrival volume will reduce. As of January 16, national port log inventory was 257 million cubic meters, down 4.46% month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [8]

Core Insights - The extreme weather conditions, including significant snowfall and temperature drops, have raised concerns about the supply and prices of essential goods such as grains, oils, meat, and eggs. However, the market is expected to remain stable due to sufficient material reserves and effective supply mechanisms [1][2]. Group 1: Market Supply and Stability - The national grain, oil, meat, and egg market is well-supplied, and prices are expected to remain stable due to strong production capabilities and ample inventory [1]. - China's grain production has consistently exceeded 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons) for two consecutive years, with projections to reach 1.42975 trillion jin (approximately 714.875 million tons) by 2025 [1]. - The production of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry is projected to exceed 100 million tons, with an expected increase of 4.09 million tons in 2025 compared to 2024, marking a historical high in pork production [1]. Group 2: Local Response and Preparedness - Local agencies and residents have proactively implemented measures to address the impacts of severe weather, ensuring the smooth transportation of essential goods [2]. - The rapid dissemination of market information allows for effective coordination among transportation and agricultural sectors, ensuring that fresh agricultural products can be transported efficiently [2]. - Residents have increased their stockpiling of essential goods, such as grains and meats, to maintain stability in daily life during adverse weather conditions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global" initiative, launched on January 15, 2026, aims to boost consumer spending and stabilize the economy while promoting Guangdong products both domestically and internationally [1][12]. Group 1: Promotion of Guangdong Goods - The initiative has successfully organized promotional events in cities like Foshan and Dongguan, leading to significant sales increases due to substantial discounts and strong online support from e-commerce platforms [1][12]. - Guangdong's products, known as "Guangdong Goods," encompass a wide range of categories, from traditional brands to innovative new products, showcasing the province's manufacturing and agricultural strengths [4][9]. Group 2: Historical and Economic Context - Guangdong has a long-standing role as a trade hub in China, historically serving as the first point of contact for foreign trade and commerce [5][8]. - The province boasts a comprehensive industrial system, being a major player in manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism, which supports the diverse offerings of "Guangdong Goods" [9][10]. Group 3: Innovation and Quality - Guangdong's focus on innovation has led to high-quality products with significant technological advancements, making it a leader in various sectors such as smart appliances and industrial robotics [10][12]. - Current statistics indicate that Guangdong produces 70% of the world's consumer drones and 40% of the nation's industrial robots, highlighting its manufacturing prowess [10]. Group 4: Strategic Goals - The initiative aligns with national strategies to enhance domestic demand and promote high-quality development, aiming to leverage Guangdong's market advantages to stabilize the national economy [13][14]. - "Guangdong Goods Going Global" also seeks to upgrade industries and enhance product quality, encouraging companies to innovate and improve brand value [14][15]. Group 5: Cultural Significance - The initiative emphasizes the cultural aspects of "Guangdong Goods," aiming to enhance their market appeal by integrating local cultural elements into product design and branding [15][22]. - By promoting the stories and cultural heritage behind the products, the initiative aims to increase the recognition and value of "Guangdong Goods" in both domestic and international markets [15][22]. Group 6: Market Expansion Strategies - The initiative plans to utilize both online and offline channels to penetrate various consumer segments, leveraging the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area's influence [19][23]. - It aims to establish efficient trade channels through cross-border e-commerce and other new trade formats to connect with global consumers [19][22].