黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 | | 场预期，带动商品价格走强。锰矿方面，康密劳公布 2025 年 6 月对华加蓬块报报价 4.4 美元/吨度，环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌 0.4 美元/吨度；联合矿业(CML)公布 2025 年 6 月对华报价出台，Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%澳块报 4.7 | | | | 美元/吨度，环比上月下跌 0.4 美元/吨度，锰矿成本支撑有限。综合来看，短期宏观情绪叠加市场消息刺 | | | | 激带动下，预计短期锰硅期价上方仍有一定空间，但幅度不看太高，后续持续关注宏观及减产情况。 | | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5636 元/吨，环比上涨 1.55%，主力合约持仓环比增加 21649 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5550 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日上涨 50 元/吨。昨日大宗商品多数走强， | | | | 黑色板块整体偏强，硅铁期价重心随之上移。宏观情绪刺激叠加主产区减产消息，带动硅铁价格上涨。昨 | | | 硅铁 | 日中美公布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，谈判效果超出市场预期， ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The oil market is entering a phase of validating expectations of a loosening fundamental outlook, with a divergence in near-term and long-term expectations reflected in the unusual "smile" shape of the oil futures curve since April [1] - Despite OPEC+ initiating an increase in production, actual output has decreased, and the impact of tariffs on oil consumption has yet to materialize, leading to persistently low oil inventories [1] - The anticipated increase in production by OPEC+ over the next two months raises concerns about potential oversupply in the long term due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2: Price Projections - The downward price space for oil may be limited, as current price levels challenge marginal producers, and the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. continues to decline [2] - Global offshore production growth is expected to fall short of projections, which may alleviate some supply surplus pressures, with Brent crude oil prices projected to fluctuate between $65 and $70 per barrel for the year [2] Group 3: Black Metals Overview - Black metal prices are experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with signs of weakening demand in the steel sector, particularly during the May Day holiday [3] - Although steel inventory levels are low, the limited recovery in demand may restrict the ability of the industry to replenish stocks, leading to potential downward adjustments in black metal prices [3] - The iron and steel production is at a high level, but the growth rate is beginning to slow, indicating a possible significant adjustment in the black metal sector by the end of Q2 [3] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Analysis - Copper prices are highly influenced by macroeconomic expectations, but the fundamental data remains resilient, with ongoing destocking of copper and aluminum inventories [4] - The processing rates for copper and aluminum indicate stable downstream demand, although the sustainability of aluminum exports and copper end-product demand is still under observation as the market approaches a seasonal slowdown [4]

日度报告——综合晨报 中美贸易谈判预计取得进展，美联储强调稳 定通胀重要性 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-12 宏观策略（黄金） 4 月中国 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降 2.7% 综 合 在散户交投活跃度高涨、消息面驱动的背景下，通胀压力和企 业业绩压力被市场忽视。当前市场估值水平已经修复至历史中 值附近，已经难言便宜，行情持续冲高将逐渐积累风险。 晨 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 报 美联储威廉姆斯强调稳定通胀重要 中美关税谈判达成共识，有望进行进一步谈判，对短期风险偏 好构成支持，美国股指期货涨幅近 1%。 黑色金属（动力煤） 2025 年 3 月日本煤炭进口 1237.98 万吨 中美贸易谈判取得进展 金价周五走势震荡表现偏弱，中美高层贸易谈判取得进展推动 金价周一开盘走低，关税问题和地缘军事冲突短期存在改善空 间，黄金短期仍有回调空间。 宏观策略（股指期货） 五一后，港口动力煤库存爆仓，煤价再度失守，港口 5500K 报 价约 645 元，前期 650 元支撑位跌破。关注 5 月份后火电日耗增 速以及国内煤矿开工率变化，或在此轮急跌后供 农产品（玉米） 中央气象台 5 ...

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：空头减仓离场，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：澳矿港口报价上移，锰硅偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 5 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of industrial development as the foundation of economic growth, with a focus on reform and innovation to promote quality transformation in the industry by 2025 [1] - The city aims for a growth of over 7% in industrial added value and over 8% in industrial technological transformation investment for the year [1] - The "1285" work system will be implemented to strengthen the "reform to promote, seek quality through innovation" brand [1] Group 2 - The strategy includes enhancing industrial organization capabilities through a "chain leader system" and focusing on structural adjustment, ecological optimization, and integration of four chains [2] - Key industries targeted include non-ferrous metals, black metals, green chemicals, and agricultural product processing, with an emphasis on technological upgrades and digital transformation [2] - The plan aims to attract new enterprises in emerging industries such as information technology, health, and new energy [2] Group 3 - The initiative includes the establishment of a "1+N+X" digital economy ecosystem to promote smart industrial platform applications and AI integration in manufacturing [3] - The goal is to support the digital transformation of 1,000 small and medium-sized enterprises by showcasing 20 exemplary cases [3] - The focus will be on expanding digital industries, particularly in electronic materials and intelligent terminals [3] Group 4 - The green transformation strategy aims to deepen the construction of a green manufacturing system and cultivate 15 provincial-level green manufacturing units [4] - A combination of energy efficiency diagnostics and energy-saving inspections will be implemented to accelerate the green transition in traditional industries [4] - The plan includes a "per unit output benefit" evaluation reform to promote differentiated policies for industrial transformation [4] Group 5 - The city will implement a series of actions under the "Chat City Enterprise Home" initiative to enhance enterprise support and service efficiency [5] - The focus will be on immediate response to enterprise needs and efficient government services through an intelligent support platform [5] - Activities will include enterprise recruitment, policy promotion, and legal services to ensure compliance and operational efficiency [6] Group 6 - The industrial and information technology bureau will pursue high-end, intelligent, green, and cluster development directions while emphasizing reform and innovation [6] - The commitment is to promote the construction of a strong manufacturing city and contribute to the modernization of the region [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on May 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][13][21][38][45] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis values were - 149.4, - 151.4, - 153.4, - 161.4, - 166.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio Data**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented from April 29 to May 8, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on May 8 was - 35.28 yuan/ton [6] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP changed. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 8 was - 160 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of different chemical products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was - 1030 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of chemical products like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, and PP - PVC are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on May 8 was 2169 yuan/ton [9] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of black metal products such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal changed. For example, the basis of rebar on May 8 was 138.0 yuan/ton [14] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of black metal products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of coke was 88.0 yuan/ton [14] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of black metal products such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on May 8 was 4.40 [14] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of domestic non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead changed. For example, the basis of copper on May 8 was 1220 yuan/ton [22] (2) London Market - **LME Premium/Discount, Shanghai - London Ratio, etc.**: On May 7, 2025, the LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are provided. For example, the LME premium of copper was 21.65 [28] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and corn changed. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on May 8 was - 214 [38] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of agricultural products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 18 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal are provided. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio on May 8 was 1.76 [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 changed. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 8 was 36.90 [46] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of stock index futures (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, next quarter - current month, etc.) are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 30.2 [46]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market's interpretation of policy benefits is limited, and funds still focus on weak expectations. The black sector only showed a brief rebound, without substantially changing the market pattern. Although the spot market is okay, the expectations remain weak. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement phase, resulting in a situation of "good reality but poor expectations." [5] - The cost of coking coal continues to decline, and the coal and coke futures hit new lows. The second round of price increase for coke is temporarily put on hold, with a price cut expected in the middle and late May. The market sentiment is weak, and the coking coal auction has many failed bids. The coal and coke market is recommended to be shorted on rallies. [6][7] - The market's interpretation of the press conference on Wednesday is limited. The steel mill's molten iron output has significantly rebounded, and the short - term iron ore valuation is relatively low. However, due to the expectation of production restrictions, it is not recommended to hold long iron ore positions unilaterally, but positive spreads can be used to express views. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3126 yuan/ton (+5, +0.16%), HC2601 at 3239 yuan/ton (+8, +0.25%), I2601 at 681 yuan/ton (+1, +0.15%), J2601 at 1550 yuan/ton (-9, -0.58%), and JM2601 at 951 yuan/ton (-13, -1.35%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3098 yuan/ton (+6, +0.088%), HC2510 at 3217 yuan/ton (+11, +0.34%), I2509 at 708 yuan/ton (+2.5, +0.35%), J2509 at 1507 yuan/ton (-10, -0.66%), and JM2509 at 908 yuan/ton (-7, -0.77%). [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads (RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, I2509 - 2601, J2509 - 2601, JM2509 - 2601) on May 7 were - 28, - 22, 27, - 43, - 43 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 4, 6, 2, 5.5, 5 yuan/ton. The spreads/price ratios/profits on May 7 were: the coil - to - rebar spread was 119 yuan/ton (0 change), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.38 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.66 (+0.01), the rebar disk profit was - 118.55 yuan/ton (+12.73), and the coking disk profit was 299.36 yuan/ton (+9.66). [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3230, 3220, 3460 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 40, 30, 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3290, 3290, 3340 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 60, 50, 30 yuan/ton. Other spot prices and their changes are also provided in the report. [2] - **Basis**: On May 7, the basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM were 73, 132, 69, 151.66, 102 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 39, 19, 0, - 5, - 6.5 yuan/ton. [2]

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观因素影响，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观因素影响，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：电煤疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 8 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨 ...

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various commodities on different dates, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, which can help investors analyze the price relationships and trends of these commodities [2][8][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Power Coal - Basis data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, shows that the basis values are negative and gradually decreasing, with values of - 146.4, - 147.4, - 149.4, - 151.4, - 153.4 respectively. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads are all 0 [2]. 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the crude oil/bitumen ratio, basis and ratio data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are presented. For example, the INE crude oil basis on May 6 is - 40.14 [6]. (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From April 25 to May 6, 2025, basis data for natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP are provided. For instance, the natural rubber basis on May 6 is - 115 [8]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different chemicals are given, such as the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads for natural rubber, methanol, etc. The 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber is - 930 [8]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are presented for different dates [8]. 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. For example, the rebar basis on May 6 is 113.0 [13]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The 5 - 1 spread of rebar is - 78.0 [13]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented for different dates [13]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are given. The copper basis on May 6 is 770 [22]. (2) London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME copper spread on April 30 is 20.23 [29]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are provided. The soybean basis on May 6 is - 269 [37]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for various agricultural products are given. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean is 23 [37]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are presented for different dates [37]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. The CSI 300 basis on May 6 is 42.34 [45]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different stock index futures are provided. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 30.6 [45].