Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend, making it difficult to strongly drive the market. The industrial silicon futures have witnessed panic trading, and the trading volume remains high. For medium - and long - term operations, a high - short strategy is recommended [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,215 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract position is 226,069 lots, down 1,138 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 11,659 lots, up 5,965 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 64,286 lots, down 340 lots; the spread between the July - August contracts is - 25, up 10 [3] 现货 Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 1,235 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,760 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [3] 产业 Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 582,000 tons, down 17,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [3] 下游 Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,000 tons, down 200 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.29 US dollars/kilogram, down 0.01 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.31%, down 0.26 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, down 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [3] 行业 News - On May 14, at the request of US companies Ferroglobe USA, Inc. and Mississippi Silicon LLC on April 24, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced anti - dumping investigations on imported silicon metal from Angola, Australia, Laos, and Norway, and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from Australia, Laos, Norway, and Thailand [3] 观点总结 - As the wet season approaches in Yunnan and Sichuan, the electricity cost advantage emerges, but the southwest region has no intention to resume work. The spot price of the organic silicon market continues to decline, and enterprises' procurement and stocking enthusiasm is insufficient. The mainstream polysilicon enterprises maintain stable production, but the industry is operating at a reduced load. In the aluminum alloy field, the terminal consumer electronics and automotive industries have certain demand support, but the procurement scale has not increased significantly. The total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries shows a downward trend [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, in the context of expected supply increase, low demand, weakened cost support, high industry inventory, and a large number of warehouse receipts, the industry's fundamentals are weak, trapped in a dilemma of "cost collapse + lagging capacity clearance", and prices are continuously hitting new lows. In the short term, there is still no positive driving force, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and explore the bottom. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk caused by short - covering and position reduction [2]. - For polysilicon, since May, many enterprises have carried out maintenance or postponed resumption of production, and the short - term supply pressure has been slightly relieved, but the downstream demand is generally low. The current polysilicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price trend is highly uncertain. As the first delivery approaches, the long - short game in the market intensifies, and there is a lack of demand driving force in the short term. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and range operation is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded after a decline. The main contract 2507 opened at 7460 yuan/ton and closed at 7340 yuan/ton, a change of (- 190) yuan/ton or (- 2.52)% compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. As of the close, the main contract 2505 held 226,069 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 28, 2025, was 64,286 lots, a change of - 340 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9000 - 9400 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7900 - 8000 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 7900 - 8000 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region also decreased individually. The silicon price in Xinjiang remained stable today, and the price of 97 silicon also decreased, with the purchasing intention improving [1]. - On the consumption side, according to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 11400 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. A monomer enterprise in North China plans to start a full - line shutdown for maintenance on June 3, with a maintenance period of about 15 days [1]. Strategy - In the short term, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and explore the bottom. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk caused by short - covering and position reduction [2]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 28, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 mainly fluctuated. It opened at 35,360 yuan/ton and closed at 35,100 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.23% compared with the previous trading day. The main contract held 79,868 lots (80,800 lots on the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 153,272 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the quotation of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 26.00, with a month - on - month change of 3.88%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.95GW, with a month - on - month change of - 2.50%, the weekly polysilicon output was 21,500.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.40%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.30GW, with a month - on - month change of 7.10% [4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 (0.00) yuan/piece [4][6]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.25 (- 0.01) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.27 (0.01) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and range operation is recommended. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to be neutral; for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations, there are no specific strategies [7].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落，影响黄金的短期节奏，但是关税问题远没有解决，俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变， | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面，全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随，价格没有摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升，铜承压回落，关注下方整数关口支撑，空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000，78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退，随着端午长假临近，市场避险情绪回升，建议暂 | | | | 时观望，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the context of expected supply increase and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to show a weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold short positions, with the lower support temporarily seen at 13,000 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On May 27, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.70% from the previous day. The basis of whole milk (switched to the 2509 contract) was -95 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 5.00%. The quoted price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,800 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan or -4.17% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: On May 27, the 9 - 1 spread was -780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or -2.63%; the 1 - 5 spread was -70 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 44.00%; the 5 - 9 spread was 850 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or -3.95% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In April, Thailand's natural rubber production was 105.70 thousand tons, down 43.50 thousand tons or -29.16% from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 194.10 thousand tons, down 15.20 thousand tons or -7.26%; India's production was 45.40 thousand tons, down 7.60 thousand tons or -14.34%; China's production was 58.10 thousand tons, up 42.30 thousand tons. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires was 78.22%, down 0.11 percentage points; the weekly开工 rate of all - steel tires was 64.96%, down 0.13 percentage points [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of May 27, the bonded area inventory was 614,189 tons, down 4,504 tons or -0.73%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 43,544 tons, down 26,713 tons or -38.02% [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the decline of the futures market has slowed down, and it is more likely that the inventory will remain flat. In the medium and long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after the maintenance. It is recommended to track the implementation of maintenance in May - June. If the maintenance is implemented, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. For unilateral trading, continue to short on rebounds in the far - month contracts, and consider the 7 - 9 positive spread for monthly trading [2]. - **Glass**: The spot market is generally weak, and the market sentiment is still pessimistic. Although the fundamentals have improved marginally, the market expectation is poor. It is expected that the glass price will continue to be under pressure in the short term and oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at the 1,000 - point level for the 09 contract [2]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: On May 29, the spot prices in North China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in East China was 1,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.76%. The price of the glass 2505 contract was 1,114 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan or -1.15%; the price of the 2509 contract was 1,009 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or -2.13% [2]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: On May 29, the spot prices in North China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged, while the price in East China was 1,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or -3.45%. The price of the soda ash 2505 contract was 1,260 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or -0.63%; the price of the 2509 contract was 1,215 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or -1.26% [2]. - **Supply**: As of May 23, the soda ash开工 rate was 78.63%, down 2.04 percentage points from May 16; the weekly soda ash output was 663,800 tons, down 14,000 tons or -2.05%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 156,700 tons, unchanged; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 99,990 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Inventory**: As of May 23, the glass factory - warehouse inventory was 67,769,000 weight boxes, down 313,000 weight boxes or -0.46%; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 1.6768 million tons, down 35,000 tons or -2.06%; the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 368,000 tons, up 3,000 tons or 0.82% [2]. - **Real Estate Data**: In the current period, the year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was -18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points; the growth rate of construction area was -33.33%, a decrease of 7.56 percentage points; the growth rate of completed area was -11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points; the growth rate of sales area was -1.55%, an increase of 12.13 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized, while the futures price has continued to decline. The main reason from the fundamental perspective is that the demand has not improved, but the supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The price may still be under pressure [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On May 28, the price of oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon in East China was 8,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or -0.54%. The basis of SI4210 increased by 120 yuan or 14.29% [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: On May 28, the 2506 - 2507 spread was -30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or -20.00%; the 2507 - 2508 spread was -25 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 28.57% [4]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon production was 300.8 thousand tons, down 41.4 thousand tons or -12.10%; Xinjiang's production was 167.5 thousand tons, down 43.3 thousand tons or -20.55%; Yunnan's production was 13.5 thousand tons, up 1.2 thousand tons or 9.35%; Sichuan's production was 11.3 thousand tons, up 6.7 thousand tons or 145.65%. The national开工 rate was 51.23%, down 6.57 percentage points; Xinjiang's开工 rate was 60.74%, down 17.31 percentage points; Yunnan's开工 rate was 18.13%, down 1.84 percentage points; Sichuan's开工 rate was 7.30%, up 6.81 percentage points [4]. - **Inventory Change**: As of May 28, the Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 187.4 thousand tons, down 14 thousand tons or -6.95%; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory was 24.1 thousand tons, up 0.3 thousand tons or 1.26%; the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory was 22.5 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons or -0.44%; the social inventory was 582 thousand tons, down 17 thousand tons or -2.84%; the warehouse receipt inventory was 321.4 thousand tons, down 1.7 thousand tons or -0.53%; the non - warehouse receipt inventory was 260.6 thousand tons, down 15.3 thousand tons or -5.55% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of polysilicon has gradually stabilized, and the futures price has also shown signs of stabilization. In June, it is expected that the supply and demand will be weak. There is a risk of inventory accumulation if there is no further production cut. Pay attention to the production and inventory changes of polysilicon [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On May 28, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of P - type cauliflower material was 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 34,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type material spread increased by 190 yuan or 15.70%; the cauliflower material basis increased by 190 yuan or 2.83% [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: On May 28, the price of the PS2506 contract was 35,100 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan or -0.54%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 4.26% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.3 GW, up 0.88 GW or 7.09%; the polysilicon production was 21.5 thousand tons, up 0.1 thousand tons or 0.47% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: In April, the polysilicon production was 95.4 thousand tons, down 0.7 thousand tons or -0.73%; the import volume was 0.1 thousand tons, down 0.22 thousand tons or -69.49%; the export volume was 0.13 thousand tons, down 0.07 thousand tons or -37.06%; the net export volume was 0.03 thousand tons, an increase of 0.14 thousand tons or 127.44%. The silicon wafer production was 58.35 GW, up 7.59 GW or 14.95%; the import volume was 0.09 thousand tons, up 0.03 thousand tons or 46.90%; the export volume was 0.63 thousand tons, up 0.04 thousand tons or 7.13%; the net export volume was 0.55 thousand tons, up 0.01 thousand tons or 2.64%; the demand for silicon wafers was 65.95 GW, up 8.28 GW or 14.36% [5]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory was 260 thousand tons, up 10 thousand tons or 4.00%; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.95 GW, down 0.49 GW or -2.52%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt was 470, unchanged [5].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-29 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-29 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美联邦法院阻止特朗普 4 月 2 日关税政策生效 观点分享： 据央视新闻报道，当地时间 5 月 28 日，美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在 4 月 2 日 "解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税 的决策为越权。位于纽约曼哈顿的国际贸易法院表示，美国宪法赋予美国国会独家权力来规 范与其他国家的贸易，而总统声称为保护美国经济而行使的紧急权力并不凌驾于这些权力之 上。该诉讼由美国非营利、无党派诉讼机构自由正义中心代表五家受关税影响的美国小企业 提起，这是对特朗普关税政策的首次重大法律挑战。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 锡 | ★★★★ | 锡：昨日锡价大幅下跌，跌幅近 3%，主要受到消息面影响，市场一度传言佤邦复产进度， 另外近期多数商品下跌，宏观情绪偏差，而有色板块整体估值较高，锡作为远端基本面较弱 的品种亦被情绪交易。然而基本面仍然维持强现实弱预期格局，据钢联了解 ...

Group 1: Tianhua New Energy - Tianhua New Energy has made significant progress in solid-state battery materials, developing high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide, high-nickel ternary, lithium-rich manganese-based, and spinel nickel-manganese materials [1] - The newly developed lithium-rich manganese-based materials have completed sample testing and have been sent to multiple solid-state battery customers for evaluation, showing high specific capacity and good stability [1] - The advancements in solid-state battery materials are expected to provide new growth opportunities for Tianhua New Energy, aligning with the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle market [1] Group 2: Jiangsu New Energy - Jiangsu New Energy announced abnormal stock trading fluctuations, with a cumulative closing price increase of over 20% in two consecutive trading days [2] - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.65% year-on-year, primarily due to unfavorable wind conditions in Jiangsu, leading to reduced wind power generation [2] - The company's future performance is influenced by various factors, including local wind speed, solar intensity, and industry policy changes, which may lead to performance volatility [2] Group 3: Silicon Industry - The silicon industry is experiencing downward pressure on industrial silicon prices due to increased supply expectations and weak demand, resulting in a slight price decline [3] - Northern manufacturers are resuming production, and with the upcoming flood season, overall production is expected to increase, despite limited preparations from southern manufacturers [3] - Although there is stable supply from organic silicon monomer plants and some expected increases in production, the overall market activity remains low, reflecting a delicate balance in supply and demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The silicon industry is experiencing a decline in spot prices due to increased supply expectations, weak demand, and continuously falling futures prices [1] Supply Side - Northern major manufacturers are resuming production, and with the upcoming flood season, overall production is expected to increase significantly [1] - Only a small number of southern manufacturers are preparing to start production, indicating a limited supply increase from that region [1] Demand Side - The supply from organic silicon monomer plants is currently stable, with an expectation of increased demand for industrial silicon due to fewer maintenance plans in June [1] - The operating rates of polysilicon plants are showing minor fluctuations, with no significant overall changes [1] - Aluminum alloy plants are purchasing industrial silicon based on demand, leading to an increase in total demand from the three major downstream sectors [1] Price Trends - Organic silicon monomer plants are primarily executing previous orders, resulting in low market activity and weak downstream demand, leading to a slight price decline [1] - Polysilicon prices have also experienced a slight decrease [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to weakened cost support, expected increase in supply, lackluster consumption, high industry inventory, and a large number of warehouse receipts, the short - term market has no bullish drivers, and the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. For polysilicon, as the first delivery approaches, the long - short game intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. The short - term supply pressure eases slightly, but downstream demand is sluggish, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to decline. The main contract 2507 opened at 7625 yuan/ton and closed at 7440 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton (-3.63%) from the previous settlement. The 2505 main - contract positions were 227,207 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 64,626 lots, a decrease of 287 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon dropped, and the basis strengthened recently. The organic silicon DMC quoted price remained stable, and the industry's operating rate is expected to decline further [1]. Supply and Demand - With the decline in raw material prices such as silicon coal and southwest electricity prices during the wet season, cost support has weakened. The supply side has significant over - capacity, with复产 expectations in the southwest and production restart plans for leading northwest enterprises. The consumer side is average, and the fundamentals are weak [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises should sell and hedge at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 fluctuated. It opened at 34,500 yuan/ton and closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from the previous day. The main - contract positions reached 80,800 lots, and the trading volume was 191,734 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [4][5][6]. Strategy - As the first delivery approaches, the long - short game in the market intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. In the short term, due to lack of demand drivers, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to operate within a range, and be short - term cautiously bullish on single - side trading [7].