证券研究报告 科技铸就信心 ——本轮A股牛市阶段性复盘及展望 平安证券研究所总量&行业团队联合 2025年10月13日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要：看好权益中期向上趋势，把握科技产业主线 2 • 总量观点：行情复盘指示，本轮牛市行情仍有向上空间，科技板块为主要驱动力。①本轮牛市的宏观背景与2014-15年相似，技术创新和产业 变革、政策支持以及流动性充裕是主要驱动力，企业盈利改善仍需等待；②两轮牛市均由科技板块主导，2014-15年是"互联网+"，2025年是 "人工智能+"，TMT有望获得更多超额；③当前行情泡沫指标（估值水平/成交热度/杠杆资金/市场情绪/相对价值等）虽已至历史较高分位，但 较2014-15年最高值仍有空间。④本轮牛市涨幅领先的行业存在业绩支撑，如电子、计算机、传媒等；对比估值与业绩预期，电力设备、社会 服务、美容护理、有色金属等行业具备相对配置价值，商贸零售、汽车、通信、地产、煤炭等行业则存在一定的高估。 • 行业观点：本轮行情中，AI引领科技产业趋势向好（TMT/新能源/汽车），部分周期+内需消费具备结构性机会（有色/商贸零售/医药生物）。 - 电子：行业在全球AI创新热潮+算 ...

中国方面，9月制造业供需改善差异扩大，供给修复快于需求。9月中采制造业PMI环比上升0.4ppt至49.8%，高于市场预期（Bloomberg预测中值为 49.6%）；9月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降0.3ppt至50.0%。制造业方面，供给边际改善幅度高于需求，库存边际增加，产成品、原材料库存分别环比 上升1.4、0.5个百分点至48.2%、48.5%；反内卷相关政策影响下，原材料购进价格继续相对强于出厂价格，9月主要原材料购进价格、出厂价格分别环比 下降0.1、0.9个百分点至53.2%、48.2%；建筑业环比小幅改善，9月建筑业商务活动指数环比小幅上升0.2个百分点至49.3%，但连续第二个月处于收缩区 间。 本期主题：避险交易可能回归 中美关税可能再升级的背景下，铜、油等对经济增长属性较为敏感的品种可能面临抛售压力，而黄金则将受益于避险情绪的升温，具体来看： 有色方面，由于中美贸易关系再起波澜，多数品种均出现高位回调。但参考上一轮4月初的关税风波，铜铝均展现出了较强的韧性：铜在触及相对90%分 位现金成本的30%溢价线，铝也在利润触及3000元/吨后迅速反弹。我们认为目前铜铝的基本面在供给叙事支撑下仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for different asset classes, there are short - term investment suggestions: - **Equity Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Commodity Categories**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, cautious and short - term cautiously go long [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautiously go long [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, intensifying short - term Sino - US game. The US dollar index and RMB exchange rate weaken, global financial markets fluctuate violently, and global risk appetite significantly cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but short - term Sino - US game intensifies, and domestic risk appetite cools significantly. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced, increasing policy support [3][4]. - **Market Trading Logic**: Focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US game. Short - term macro upward drive weakens; follow - up attention on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro Situation**: Overseas, Sino - US game intensifies, dollar and RMB weaken, global risk appetite cools, and precious metals strengthen. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, risk appetite cools, and multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Equity index has short - term high - level adjustment, treasury bonds oscillate in the short - term, black metals oscillate, non - ferrous metals adjust, energy and chemicals oscillate, and precious metals are strong - side oscillating at high levels. All are with cautious operation suggestions [3]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stock market drops significantly due to the drag of energy metals, semiconductors, and batteries. Fundamentally, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, and risk appetite cools. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. After the weekend, Sino - US trade conflict escalated, and market risk - aversion increased. Fundamentally, demand is weak, inventory increases by 127000 tons, and supply is expected to remain high. The steel market may be weak in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Iron ore demand is strong, but due to the weakening steel market and Sino - US trade conflict, the negative feedback may come earlier. It is recommended to short at high prices next week [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Last Friday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is okay, but supply increases in some areas. Silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Not mentioned in the provided content. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Tariff concerns resurfaced last Friday night. US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increases. Some major copper mines have supply disruptions, but most are expected to resume production [8]. - **Aluminum**: Last Friday, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, following copper. During the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory accumulated by 200000 tons, supply is rigid, and demand weakens marginally [9][10]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight globally, but demand improvement is limited, and high prices suppress consumption. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production increases, inventory decreases slightly. Sino - US trade conflict and 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation may bring pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly. The 2511 contract faces warehouse receipt digestion pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Production increases, inventory is high, and warehouse receipt quantity increases. Supply is high, demand is weak, and prices depend on the implementation of storage - purchase news [11]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Gaza cease - fire agreement and US tariff statements lead to a significant drop in oil prices. OPEC+增产 will continue to put downward pressure on prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline drives asphalt price down. Demand in the peak season is almost over, supply pressure increases, and asphalt may oscillate weakly [13]. - **PX**: It oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. Although PTA high - level operation provides some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [13]. - **PTA**: Downstream demand is weak, supply remains high, and port inventory increases. Prices will continue to run weakly [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory rises, demand deteriorates, and supply increases. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low level [14]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector, and terminal orders have limited improvement. It may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply growth far exceeds demand recovery, inventory increases, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: After the holiday, supply and demand both increase, but new capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure [15]. - **LLDPE**: After the holiday, supply increases and demand recovers slowly. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is less than expected, and prices will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Supply is above 190000 tons per day, and demand is weak. The short - term price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on export policy [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Sino - US trade tension intensifies, and the CBOT soybean market is under pressure. Domestic short - term soybean meal replenishment may increase, but in the fourth quarter, supply is sufficient. CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal may be under short - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the import of Australian rapeseed [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decrease before the import of Australian rapeseed. Palm oil has some support, and soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is bearish, with inventory rising unexpectedly. In the short - term, there is a risk of correction, but in the medium - term, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall [17].

中信证券：传统制造业的机会 每轮意外的市场波动，往往是新的变化和线索转变为主线的契机，短期走势的判断不是核心矛盾。全球 化逆转的时期，即便是低附加值的工业品也可以成为国家撬动地缘话语权和保障本国利益的利器，同时 也代表着对全球化时代传统分配机制的一种修正和平衡。全球范围内，非科技行业的资本开支增长长期 持续低迷，国内的传统工业板块资本开支在"反内卷"的大趋势下也开始明显放缓，不少传统行业投入产 出比已经企稳甚至回升，龙头公司在景气低点也能够持续创造利润，同时这些传统制造业在利润率底部 的估值水平也并不高。这些都为中国制造业将份额优势逐步转化为定价权提供了条件，中企也应该借势 逐步告别内卷式竞争。 近期的出口管制和出口许可制，既是弥补漏洞和完善制度维护国家利益，也有助于对外挺价、对内"反 内卷"加速出清落后产能，具备合规能力和全球化运营经验的头部企业，反而可能获得更稳定的海外份 额与更好的盈利水平。考虑到短期利润兑现、中期景气回升和长期叙事逻辑的平衡，当前仍然主要关注 偏上游的资源板块和传统制造业。 国泰海通：增持中国市场的良机 外部冲击造成的资产下跌，是增持中国市场的良机。与4月冲击不同，当下贸易风险的边界相 ...

国泰海通：增持中国市场的良机 中信证券：传统制造业的机会 外部冲击造成的资产下跌，是增持中国市场的良机。与4月冲击不同，当下贸易风险的边界相对清晰，国内金 融稳定条件也更明朗，因此外部冲击是扰动，不会终结趋势。投资更应看到中国"转型牛"内在确定性的趋势： 中国转型加快、无风险收益下沉与资本市场改革。当下中国社会和投资人关于"找资产"的需求持续井喷，尤其 是发展逻辑坚实的优质资产，因此，外部局势的冲突和扰动所造成的资产下跌反而是买点。地缘冲击和调整难 免，但时间不会久，幅度可控，是增持中国的时机。地缘和经济形势复杂，在数据和政策上易证伪的板块仍不 是好的选择。由此我们认为风格不会切换，聚焦产业发展、 "反内卷" 和稳定价值，新兴科技是主线，周期金 融是黑马。 每轮意外的市场波动，往往是新的变化和线索转变为主线的契机，短期走势的判断不是核心矛盾。全球化逆转 的时期，即便是低附加值的工业品也可以成为国家撬动地缘话语权和保障本国利益的利器，同时也代表着对全 球化时代传统分配机制的一种修正和平衡。全球范围内，非科技行业的资本开支增长长期持续低迷，国内的传 统工业板块资本开支在"反内卷"的大趋势下也开始明显放缓，不少传统 ...

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 为什么特朗普政府的关税态度会出现如此快速的软化？美国为什么很难长期坚持对其他经济体的高关税政策？归根到底，是因为美国很难长时间逆着经济规律 做事情。 所以虽然关税政策短期有很大的不确定性，但是中长期来看，沿着经济规律演绎又是相对确定的。 本次关税再起波澜，我们认为政策的纠偏其实只是时间问题，对市场的影响预计会相对可控。 从宏观视角看，本次关税冲击和4月那次相比，我们认为也需要 考虑其他几方面因素：首先，市场是有"经验"和"记忆"的。其次，中国的应对经验更丰富。此外，当前的宏观信心和预期会更强一些。 所以总结来说，我们认为，外部因素的短期波动对国内的边际影响其实没有那么大，而真正需要关注的是国内经济、政策等因素的变化。只要我们继续坚持做 正确的事，就没什么好怕的。 风险提示： 全球地缘风险；美国政策的不确定风险；监管政策变化风险。 【宏观】胜人者有力，自胜者强 近期美国特朗普政府又开始酝酿对一些国家挑起关税摩擦，也引起市场诸多的关注。 我们认为对于外部环境变化不需要太悲观。就像我们在去年年度展望报 告当中提到的，"胜人者有力，自胜者强"，战胜别人看起来是有 ...

上周五晚上发完《 大跌后的6条建议 》，大家也都清楚， 没过多久，川宝同志就在社媒上发了一通火 ，引起了全球市场的大幅下跌，最惨的是数字货 币，据统计，24小时内，加密货币合约爆仓接近200亿美刀，爆仓人数超160万，影响是不小的。 因此，在开盘前，和大家聊几句，供大家参考。 下图 ，是财通团队做的统计，比较了一下，今年4月初对等关税之后的那波下跌，以及周五晚上川宝发推之后的资产价格下跌情况。 第一，市场有双向波动，本就是合理，且近乎必然的。 | | | | | 【财通固收 · 隋修平】两轮贸易摩擦下的市场对比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 两轮贸易摩擦对比 | | 纳指 | 标普500指数 | 伦敦富时100指数 | 纳指中国全龙指数 | 纳指中国科技指数 | 富时中国A50指数 | 富时中国3倍做多ETF | | 4月贸易摩擦 | 1 D | -5.97 | -4. 84 | -1.55 | -1.90 | -2. 80 | -0. 16 | -2.87 | | 2D | | -11.44 | -10 ...

国泰海通证券报告认为，与4月冲击不同，当下贸易风险的边界相对清晰，国内金融稳定条件也更明 朗，因此外部冲击是扰动，不会终结趋势。投资更应看到中国"转型牛"内在确定性的趋势：中国转型加 快、无风险收益下沉与资本市场改革。当下中国社会和投资人关于"找资产"的需求持续井喷，尤其是发 展逻辑坚实的优质资产，因此，外部局势的冲突和扰动所造成的资产下跌反而是买点。地缘冲击和调整 难免，但时间不会久，幅度可控，是增持中国的时机。国泰海通认为风格不会切换，聚焦产业发展、反 内卷和稳定价值。1）中国AI创新与国产化进展提速，新一轮资本开支扩张周期出现；国产半导体设 备"deepseek时刻"或临近，推荐：港股互联网/电子半导体/国防军工/传媒/机器人等。2）金融板块在经 历调整后，股息回报和稳定价值提高，推荐：券商/银行/保险。3）反内卷的背后是经济治理思路的转 变，有助打破或修正此前充分定价的通缩预期，看好格局改善的周期品：有色（稀土）/化工/钢铁/新能 源等。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，每轮意外的市场波动，往往是新的变化和线索转变为主线的 契机，短期走势的判断不是核心矛盾。近期的出口管制和出口许可制，既是弥补漏洞和完善制度维护国 家利益，也有助于对外挺价、对内反内卷加速出清落后产能，具备合规能力和全球化运营经验的头部企 业，反而可能获得更稳定的海外份额与更好的盈利水平。考虑到短期利润兑现、中期景气回升和长期叙 事逻辑的平衡，当前仍然主要关注偏上游的资源板块和传统制造业。 以下为研报摘要： 每轮意外的市场波动，往往是新的变化和线索转变为主线的契机，短期走势的判断不是核心矛盾。全球 化逆转的时期，即便是低附加值的工业品也可以成为国家撬动地缘话语权和保障本国利益的利器，同时 也代表着对全球化时代传统分配机制的一种修正和平衡，传统工业品只要供应管控得当，也应该享有溢 价。当一国对全球供应有足够影响力时，理应将份额优势转化为全球定价权和利润，以避免本国优质资 源被贱卖、优质工业产能被浪费，同时补贴居民部门，提高工资水平和社会保障水平，完善内部循环。 全球范围内，非科技行业的资本开支增长长期持续低迷，国内的传统工业板块资本开支在反内卷的大趋 势下也开始明显放缓，不 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points but faced a pullback, leading to increased market volatility. The outlook remains optimistic for a systematic "slow bull" market, with potential adjustments viewed as opportunities for increased allocation [1][4][58] - The report suggests a strategic focus on large financials, real estate, and infrastructure sectors, while tactical operations should monitor the performance of the ChiNext Index and key moving averages [1][5][59] Market Overview - The major indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a slight increase of 0.37% over the week, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market saw declines of 3.86% and 2.85% respectively [12][56] - The report highlights a significant rise in cyclical sectors, with non-ferrous metals up by 4.35%, and coal and electricity sectors also performing well. Conversely, technology sectors showed weakness, with declines in media, electronics, and communications [15][57] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.59 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity. The margin trading balance also continued to rise, reaching 2.44 trillion yuan [24][29] - The report notes that the stock ETF saw a net inflow of 10.4 billion yuan, with the securities ETF leading in inflows, while the medical ETF experienced the largest outflow [31][39] Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates that if the ChiNext Index does not recover its upward trend in the short term, it may undergo a weekly level consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index, having formed a five-wave structure, is expected to continue its upward trajectory unless external shocks disrupt this trend [4][58] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of key sectors, particularly large financials and cyclical stocks, as the market may shift focus away from technology [58][59]