新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 下游采购以刚需为主 铜价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-11-24，沪铜主力合约开于 85750元/吨，收于 86080元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.49%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 86,080元/吨，收于 86,040 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘基本持平。 现货情况： 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价86060~86410元/吨，对当月合约均价升水85元/吨，较前日微降5元。早 盘期铜冲高回落，进口亏损扩大至近1000元/吨，跨月价差维持Contango结构。市场采购情绪受铜价波动抑制，销 售意愿增强令现货升水承压。平水铜主流成交于升水10-60元/吨，好铜资源偏紧，金川大板升水约150元/吨。湿法 铜流通减少，非注册货源成交平淡。预计今日持货商报盘有限，下游以刚需采购为主，现货将维持小幅升水格局。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，国内方面，5月20日，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、招商银行、邮储 ...

英美资源位于秘鲁南部的Quellaveco铜矿自2022年开始运营以来，已生产了100万吨铜，这标志着南美 最新铜矿之一的一个重要里程碑。 该公司将矿场的出色表现归功于其专注于安全、可靠性和技术的策略。Quellaveco完全依靠可再生能源 供电，并且是秘鲁首个采用自主钻探和运输车队的矿场。一个远程操作中心以及先进的处理系统旨在加 强日常管理，并保持长期的高效运行。 Quellaveco铜矿很快达到了其设计产量，该矿的预期开采寿命为36年，在其运营的前10年，年产能为30 万吨。随着公司表现的持续提升，该矿在2023年和2024年均交付了超过30万吨的铜。 （文华综合） Quellaveco铜矿有望在2025年生产31万-34万吨铜。英美资源表示，这一产量水平每年可以为500多万辆 电动汽车提供足够的铜。 公司高管将这一产量里程碑视为可持续采矿的的基准，他们指出该矿场的碳排放量低，并且通过采用自 动化技术提高了安全性和生产效率。 随着全球人口增长、城市扩张以及各经济体推动减排，铜需求继续攀升。英美资源集团估计，到2040 年，全球将需要相当于60个新的Quellaveco规模的矿山来满足未来的需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, emphasizing the importance of understanding the supply-demand dynamics and historical price drivers in the platinum and palladium markets [5][6]. Group 1: Research Framework - The core framework for platinum and palladium research is based on supply-demand relationships, which are influenced by both micro-level mining costs and macroeconomic factors [6][24]. - Supply-demand balance determines the price direction of platinum and palladium, with mining supply primarily dominated by South Africa, accounting for over 70% of global supply [9][14]. - The automotive industry is the main demand driver for platinum and palladium, with platinum demand in the automotive sector projected to account for 39.85% of total platinum demand in 2024 [9][14]. Group 2: Price Influencing Factors - Mining costs provide short-term and long-term price support, with total cash costs (TCC) and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) being critical metrics for mining operations [17][24]. - The profitability of mining companies affects long-term capital expenditures, which in turn influences supply and price levels [18][19]. - Macroeconomic fluctuations and event shocks significantly impact supply-demand dynamics, thereby affecting platinum and palladium prices [22][43]. Group 3: Historical Price Trends - Historical price trends from 2000 to present are categorized into five periods, each driven by different core factors, including industrial demand and macroeconomic changes [44][45]. - The period from 2000 to 2008 saw strong industrial demand, particularly from the automotive sector, leading to significant price increases for platinum [45][48]. - The 2009 to 2015 period was characterized by macroeconomic uncertainty and supply disruptions, resulting in fluctuating prices for both platinum and palladium [49][53]. - From 2016 to 2018, structural changes in demand, particularly due to the rise of electric vehicles, negatively impacted platinum prices [54][56]. - The period from 2019 to 2022 was marked by increased volatility in palladium prices, driven by regulatory changes and supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic [59][60]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for platinum and palladium prices will be influenced by ongoing macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and interest rate expectations, as well as shifts in automotive demand due to electric vehicle adoption [62][63]. - The potential for a new round of price increases is anticipated as speculative demand rises, particularly in response to changes in the U.S. dollar and broader economic conditions [62][63].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Downward Bias [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: Sideways in the Short Term, Supply Remains Loose in the Long Term [7] Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - sentiment, with prices oscillating. The inventory pressure of finished products has been significantly relieved, but the future demand situation needs attention [1]. - The iron ore market sentiment is positive, with prices rising slightly. However, the supply - demand imbalance is intensifying, and prices may face great pressure in the future [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices moving sideways. The coking coal supply is gradually recovering, and the coke cost support is weakening [4]. - The thermal coal market has increasing wait - and - see sentiment, with prices oscillating. The supply is tightening in the short term, but the long - term supply remains loose [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3089 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3295 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume was good, with the national building materials trading volume at 13110 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure of finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved month - on - month, while the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports increased slightly. The total transaction volume of major ports was 1.121 million tons, a 22.38% increase. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 6.8% to 3.278 billion tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 24.2% to 2.817 billion tons. The inventory at 45 ports slightly increased to 15.102 billion tons [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with the total inventory rising continuously. Downstream steel mills have started to cut production, and there is a possibility of further cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coke market was stable, but the bearish sentiment was increasing. Some coal mines in the coking coal production area resumed production, but the supply recovery was slow, and some coal mines started the second - round price cut [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coking coal supply increased slightly, and the short - term market was weak. The coke cost support weakened, and the market sentiment turned negative [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for coking coal, sideways for coke. No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The prices in the main production areas oscillated. The shipments of large stations and power plants were stable, and some coal mines' prices increased slightly. The port inventory was rising, and the downstream procurement was cautious. The imported coal market was strong, with obvious price advantages [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways in the short term, with the supply remaining loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to the non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]

Core Insights - The A-share market is showing signs of a potential recovery in the earnings cycle, with a significant probability of an increase in earnings indicators for Q3 2025, suggesting a gradual bottoming out of A-share profits [2] - The Shanghai 180 Index has seen a rise of 0.96%, with notable increases in stocks such as Shengyi Technology and Zhongjin Gold, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.29% of the index, highlighting the concentration of market performance among a few key players [3] Market Performance - As of November 25, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.96%, with significant gains in stocks like Shengyi Technology (up 6.91%) and Zhongjin Gold (up 5.66%) [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund also increased by 0.68%, reflecting a positive trend in the broader market [1] Earnings Outlook - The earnings growth for the entire A-share market is projected to be 4.78% in 2025 and 10.98% in 2026, with net profit growth expected to be 10.70% and 17.94% respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [2] - Historical data suggests that when the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive, A-share revenue growth tends to show significant elasticity, with past instances in 2016 and 2020 leading to substantial revenue increases [2] Sector Analysis - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and consumer sectors are expected to exhibit more resilience in growth compared to other sectors [2] - The upstream sectors are predicted to see revenue growth primarily driven by non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals in 2025, with a potential turnaround in net profit growth by 2026 [2]

2025年11月25日 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 25 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：LME现货走强，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏弱 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续承压 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", with specific ratings for each variety as follows: steel - oscillation; iron ore - oscillation with an upward bias; scrap steel - oscillation; coke - oscillation; coking coal - oscillation with an upward bias; glass - oscillation; manganese silicon - oscillation; silicon iron - oscillation; soda ash - oscillation [8][12][15][16][19] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of steel are improving, and with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is favorable, leading to a low - level rebound in the futures market. However, as the off - season deepens, demand may weaken, and high inventory levels limit the upside potential. Iron ore prices are strong due to potential restocking demand, while scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate. Coke is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation, and coking coal's far - month contracts may oscillate with an upward bias. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to trade around cost levels. Glass and soda ash face over - supply issues, with glass prices likely to oscillate weakly without more cold repairs, and soda ash prices expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [2][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant increase in arrivals this period after a decrease in the previous two weeks. Port inventories slightly declined, and steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased. Short - term hot metal is expected to be supported, and iron ore restocking demand may be released, so iron ore prices are strong. Scrap steel supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and environmental relaxation, coke supply stabilized. Short - term steel mill demand remained strong, and total inventory continued to decline, but cost support for spot prices weakened, and the market expected price cuts. Coke futures are expected to follow coking coal in oscillation. Coking coal's fundamentals have not significantly weakened, and downstream winter restocking is expected after spot price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [3] Alloy - Manganese silicon has strong cost support, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels. Silicon iron's cost supports the price bottom, but oversupply restricts the upside, and it is also expected to trade around cost levels [4][7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply may be disrupted, but mid - and downstream inventories are relatively high, and the current supply - demand is oversupplied. Without more cold repairs by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices, otherwise, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are near cost, with obvious bottom support, but oversupply restricts price increases. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15] Steel - Spot market transactions were good, steel mill profitability decreased, but production enthusiasm remained high, and steel output slightly increased. Steel demand was resilient, and overall inventory continued to decline, but inventory levels were still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals are improving, and the futures market has the driving force for a low - level rebound, but the upside is limited due to the off - season and high inventory [10] Iron Ore - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival rhythm fluctuated greatly. Spot prices mostly rose. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased, arrivals increased this period, and the hurricane affected the arrival rhythm. Hot metal production slightly decreased, and restocking demand has not been significantly released. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [10] Scrap Steel - This week's arrivals slightly increased, and electric furnace profits significantly recovered after the decline in scrap prices and the rise in finished product prices. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills slightly decreased, and steel mills slightly replenished their inventories. The supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and it is expected to oscillate [11] Coke - Futures followed coking coal in oscillation. Spot prices declined, and supply slightly increased after the improvement of coking profits and the end of environmental restrictions. Demand was weakening as hot metal production declined slightly. Inventory at coke enterprises slightly increased but remained low. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation [12][13] Coking Coal - Futures were under pressure and oscillated. Spot prices of some varieties declined. Domestic supply remained low, and the fundamentals have not significantly weakened. There is restocking demand for downstream winter storage after price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [14] Manganese Silicon - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions were average, and manufacturers were under cost pressure. Cost support remained strong, but the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [17] Silicon Iron - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions needed improvement. Cost support was strong, but oversupply restricted the upside, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [18]

Core Conclusions - The non-farm employment in the U.S. unexpectedly increased by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [5][6] - The price of antimony has rebounded significantly, presenting potential investment opportunities in antimony-related sectors [2][4] Domestic Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,836.77, with a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12,585.08 [3] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.12% to 4,448.05, indicating a mixed performance across major indices [3] International Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,448.27, up by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw increases of 1.55% and 2.69%, closing at 6,705.12 and 22,872.01 respectively [3] Industry Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant disagreement among policymakers regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with a 10 to 2 vote to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points [4] - The Congo has extended the ban on artisanal mining trade in conflict-affected provinces, impacting global supply chains for tin, tantalum, and tungsten, which are critical for electronics and aerospace industries [7] Market Trends - The North Exchange saw an average daily trading volume of 17.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.2% week-on-week, with the North Exchange 50 index dropping by 9.04% [8] - The top five gainers included Dapeng Industrial (up 1211.1%) and Beikang Testing (up 289.6%), while the largest losers were Luqiao Information (down 23.2%) and Taipeng Intelligent (down 19.8%) [8] Investment Recommendations - The North Exchange's policy support is expected to benefit specialized and innovative enterprises, with a focus on the net subscription status of thematic funds and the liquidity recovery opportunities from the launch of the "specialized and innovative" index funds [10] - The current market adjustment may provide a window for medium to long-term investment opportunities, particularly in high-growth sectors that have been undervalued [10]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.9% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.43% [1] - Xiaomi Group rose nearly 3% [1] - Baidu Group increased by nearly 4% [1] - Zijin Mining Group saw a rise of 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects copper prices to continue rising into next year due to ongoing mine disruptions leading to tighter supply and strong long-term demand driven by electrification and clean energy investments [1][2] Group 1: Price Forecast - UBS raised its copper price forecast for March 2026 by $750/ton to $11,500/ton, with June and September targets increased by $1,000/ton to $12,000/ton and $12,500/ton respectively, and a new December 2026 target of $13,000/ton [1] - The firm adjusted its market supply deficit forecast, increasing the 2025 deficit from a previous estimate of 53,000 tons to 230,000 tons, and the 2026 deficit from 87,000 tons to 407,000 tons [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - UBS highlighted that this year's mining operational disruptions, including issues at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slow production recovery in Chile, and ongoing protests in Peru, underscore structural supply constraints that may persist until 2026 [1] - Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to resume production at the Grasberg mine by July [1] Group 3: Demand Growth - The firm projects global copper demand to grow by 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, primarily supported by electric vehicles, renewable energy, grid investments, and data center demand [2] - UBS stated that any weakness in copper prices should be temporary, recommending maintaining long positions in copper or employing volatility selling strategies [2]