1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

2025 年下半年硅 策略报告 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：新疆产能继续释放，内蒙及甘肃新增产能填补了西南减产缺口，结构性过剩矛盾突出。据百川，上半年国内工业硅总产量达 | | | 185.6万吨，环比增长21.5%，同比下滑14.9%；主产地占比为新疆53.2%、内蒙12.3%、甘肃10.4%、云南5 %、四川4.5%；上半年开炉量下 | | | 滑53台至215台，开炉率下滑8.3%至27.2%。 | | | 2、需求：光伏抢装带领晶硅需求集中前置，但降库存导致向上传导不佳，有机硅抢出口成为主增量。上半年国内工业硅消费测算量92.9 | | | 万吨，同比下滑34.9%。其中DMC产量102.4万吨，同比增长27.4%，测算工业硅用量约53.2万吨；多晶硅产量57.5万吨，同比下滑45.3%， | | | 测算工业硅用量约74.7万吨；1-5月铝合金产量740.5万吨，同比增长16.7%，预计上半年铝合金产量88 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term rubber prices rebound due to market sentiment, but with supply increasing and demand weakening, prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 yuan/ton and monitor raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. Industrial Silicon - The short - term price of industrial silicon futures rises supported by demand recovery and production cuts, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not improved. Technically, the price is still strong [3]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction in the polysilicon market is the mismatch between weak demand and复产 expectations. In July, demand is likely to remain weak. If production resumes, prices will be under pressure; if significant production cuts are implemented, prices may stabilize and rebound [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, there is a short - term boost, but the medium - term is under pressure. Wait for trading opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, it is in the off - season, facing over - supply pressure, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050 [6]. Logs - The log market is entering a supply - and - demand dual - weak pattern. The 07 contract is strong due to the first - delivery cost game, and short - term oscillation is expected [8]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 250 yuan/ton to 14,100 yuan/ton on June 27, a 1.81% increase [1]. - The full - latex basis switched to the 2509 contract rose 128.95% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread rose 20 yuan/ton to - 825 yuan/ton, a 2.37% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's production in April decreased by 43.5 thousand tons to 105.7 thousand tons, a 29.16% decline [1]. - China's natural rubber import volume in May decreased by 6.98 tons to 45.34 tons, a 13.35% decline [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded - area inventory increased by 1,410 tons to 606,975 tons, a 0.23% increase [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed S15530 industrial silicon rose 100 yuan/ton to 8,300 yuan/ton on June 27, a 1.22% increase [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread rose 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, a 133.33% increase [3]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in May increased by 0.69 tons to 30.77 tons, a 2.29% increase [3]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.29 tons to 17.29 tons, a 1.65% decline [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained at 34,500 yuan/ton on June 27 [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract rose 1,600 yuan/ton to 33,315 yuan/ton, a 5.04% increase [4]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in May increased by 0.07 tons to 9.61 tons, a 0.73% increase [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 27 tons, a 3.05% increase [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Price and Spread - The North China glass quotation remained at 1,140 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The North China soda ash quotation remained at 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The soda ash production rate decreased by 5.04% to 82.21% [6]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 67.1 tons to 6,921.6 tons, a 0.96% decline [6]. Real Estate Data - The new construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73% [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Price - The log 2509 contract decreased by 2.5 yuan/cubic meter to 791 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.32% decline [8]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.01 to 7.168 [8]. Supply and Demand - The number of ships at the port decreased by 5 to 58, a 7.94% decline [8]. Inventory - The national coniferous log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters to 3.35 million cubic meters as of June 20 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon hit bottom and rebounded. The National Development and Reform Commission's policies to promote high - quality development of new energy greatly boosted market confidence. Supply was generally weak, and demand was also facing uncertainties. Social inventory decreased to 542,000 tons due to monthly production decline, and the spot market stabilized and rebounded [2][6][9]. - Overall, the new policies on new energy development boosted market sentiment. Supply continued to contract, terminal consumption slowed down, social inventory would keep falling, and the spot market rebounded after stabilization. Technically, the futures price was expected to continue the upward trend in the short term [3][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the industrial silicon main contract price rose from 7,390 yuan/ton to 8,030 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.66%. The price of oxygen - passed 553 spot increased by 1.84%, and the price of organic silicon DMC spot increased by 0.48%. The prices of other products remained unchanged. Industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 3.04% to 542,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro: From January to May, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, with a 9.1% decline in May. However, the equipment manufacturing industry showed a supporting effect, with a 7.2% year - on - year profit growth from January to May, pulling up the overall profit of large - scale industrial enterprises by 2.4 percentage points [7]. - Supply: As of June 27th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.6%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas dropped to 215, with an overall opening rate of 30.8%. Xinjiang's opening rate remained at 70%, and the production reduction of large factories was slow. The opening rate in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly during the wet season, but the increment was limited [8]. - Demand: The polysilicon market had limited transactions, and large factories were cautious about increasing production. The silicon wafer market declined significantly, and many enterprises jointly reduced production to support prices. Some photovoltaic cell manufacturers adjusted production lines and adopted a flexible production - based - on - sales strategy. Component prices were stable, but most manufacturers reduced production in July, and overall terminal orders were weak [6][8][9]. - Inventory: As of June 27th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 542,000 tons. The exchange - registered warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly. After the new delivery standard, the 5 - series warehouse receipts were actively registered, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to the continuous decline in domestic production [8]. Industry News - On June 26th, at the press conference, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that as of the end of May, the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power generation accounted for 45.7% of the total, exceeding that of thermal power. To improve new energy consumption, three aspects were coordinated: coordinating power transmission and local consumption, coordinating grid and regulation capacity construction, and coordinating energy demand and supply [10]. Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts showing data such as industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production in main production areas, and prices of related products over different time periods [12][14].

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅大厂突发减产，光伏再提反内卷 根据百川盈孚，本周新疆、内蒙、宁夏分别减产 25、3、1 台，四川增开 1 台。周产量 7.49 万吨，环比-2.22%。SMM 工业 硅社会库存环比-1.7 万吨，样本工厂库存环比-0.23 万吨。新疆 大厂突发减产。部分伊犁小厂在政府补贴下有所增产。四川、 云南预期丰水期开工仍将有小幅增加。大厂生产计划将对工业 硅基本面产生较大影响。若大厂维持 48 台开炉，则工业硅单 月或去库 6 万吨。但若大厂恢复东部基地满产，则工业硅或单 月累库 3 万吨。大厂减产时间仍不明确，关注后续进展。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 现货本周成交低迷。市场传言多家企业多个基地新增复产计 划，我们暂仅考虑已复产企业的生产情况，预期 7 月排产 10.7 万吨。此水平的复产也足以带动多晶硅进入单月过剩。根据 SMM，截至 6 月 26 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27 万吨，环比+0.8 万吨。下游硅片厂对硅料压价态度明显，在硅料龙头企业联合 减产之前，预计硅料价格仍将继续下跌。但近日政策端变动较 大，周末人民日报发文再度强调"反内卷"，后续关注政策端 变化。 [★Ta工bl业 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - On June 27, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with polysilicon leading with over a 3% increase, followed by焦煤 and industrial silicon with over 4% gains [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1377.97 points, up 5.01 points or 0.36% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1910.45 points, up 6.95 points or 0.37% [1] Group 2: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon surged over 6% on June 27, driven by positive market sentiment and news of production cuts from major manufacturers in Xinjiang, impacting daily output by approximately 1500 to 1700 tons [2] - Industrial silicon also experienced a price rebound, closing above 8000 yuan per ton, but faces potential supply increases due to the resumption of production in the southwestern region [3] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke continued their upward trend, with coking coal reaching a new high in over a month, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics due to production cuts amid safety inspections [3] - Despite the rebound, the overall supply-demand balance for coking coal and coke remains tilted towards oversupply, limiting the potential for further price increases [3] Group 4: Oil and Gold Market Trends - SC crude oil contracts fell for the fourth consecutive day, with a decline of 1.37%, influenced by improved market risk appetite and a weaker dollar [4] - Gold prices also decreased, with the Shanghai gold main contract dropping by 0.87%, although expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide some support [5]

Group 1 - The carbon market is experiencing a short-term price decline due to macroeconomic factors, but market activity and transaction volume are increasing, indicating robust development. Long-term expectations suggest tightening carbon emission quotas from 2026, pushing companies towards green energy and energy-saving technologies [2] - The electricity market reform is driven by the surge in renewable energy installations, leading to increased pressure on grid peak regulation. The reform aims for full market-based pricing for renewable energy, which may create revenue uncertainties and has led to a drop in demand since June [3] - Domestic polysilicon production remains stable at 90,000 to 100,000 tons per month, with annual capacity exceeding 3 million tons. However, high inventory levels and unstable profit expectations from photovoltaic power generation have resulted in weakened demand [4] Group 2 - Industrial silicon prices have unexpectedly dropped below 7,000 yuan per ton, below the optimal cost line for leading companies. Despite losses, production remains stable due to employment and loan pressures, with monthly production at 300,000 tons [5] - The lithium carbonate market is facing increasing oversupply, with projected supply of 1.6 million tons and demand of 1.3 million tons by 2025, leading to a surplus of 200,000 tons. Prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term [6] - The aluminum alloy futures market has low participation and limited delivery sources, with a focus on cost factors such as scrap aluminum prices and industrial silicon [10][12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 8.66%, and polysilicon by 5.95%, due to the positive news of photovoltaic desert control [7]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to remain loose. The southwest region's electricity price is decreasing, and there are plans for large - scale enterprises to resume production. The northwest region also offers electricity subsidies [7]. - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is slowing down. Organic silicon production is being cut due to zero profit, polysilicon production is reduced, and the aluminum alloy industry is in a passive de - stocking phase [7]. - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. However, the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan has improved market sentiment [7]. - Next week, industrial silicon is expected to experience basis regression, and the increase in futures prices may be limited. Polysilicon's basis is expected to return to the normal range [7]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates in the range of 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon oscillates in the range of 32000 - 34500, with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 36000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices increased this week. After the news of photovoltaic desert control on Thursday, the market began to reflect the expectation of increased demand, and prices rose significantly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply will be loose, while demand from downstream industries is weakening. The overall demand for industrial silicon is expected to slow down [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is in a state of reduced load operation, and demand is weak. However, the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan has improved market sentiment. Inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly in range - bound oscillation (7600 - 8600), with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should be in short - term oscillation (32000 - 34500), with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 36000 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon both decreased [8]. - The price of industrial silicon increased, the spot price rose, and the basis weakened. It is expected that the basis will return next week [13]. - The futures price of polysilicon rebounded, the basis weakened, the spot price rose, and the basis returned to normal [17]. - This week, the production and capacity utilization rate of industrial silicon increased due to the rainy season in the southwest region and the resumption plans of large enterprises. As of June 27, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 73,500 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 50.61% [23][25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon slightly decreased, the electricity price dropped, and the overall cost decreased due to government subsidies. Although enterprises are still in a loss state, the willingness to resume production during the rainy season has increased [27]. - **Inventory**: This week, the warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased, the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory slightly increased. The process of inventory reduction has been repeated, but the overall trend remains unchanged. As of June 27, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 53,234 lots, a decrease of 2386 lots; the total social inventory of metallic silicon was 571,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons [32][36]. - **Downstream Industry**: - **Organic Silicon**: The production and capacity utilization rate decreased. Enterprises chose to continue reducing production to support prices due to profit decline. As of June 27, 2025, the weekly production was 44,200 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.17%, a decrease of 1.23% [38][42]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price decreased, the inventory increased, and the passive de - stocking continued. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to remain weak. As of June 27, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [50][52]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Chip**: The silicon wafer price decreased, and the battery chip price remained flat. The overall demand for polysilicon was affected, which in turn affected the demand for industrial silicon. As of June 27, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.06 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/piece; the battery chip price was 0.25 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week [57][59]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost**: This week, the cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) for polysilicon remained flat, and the price of industrial silicon decreased. Overall, the production cost remained stable, and the polysilicon production is expected to gradually decline. In May 2025, the total production of polysilicon plants in China was 97,355 tons, a decrease of 1447 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [64][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Industrial silicon - Interval operation, upstream sell - hedge on rallies; Polysilicon - Neutral [2][8] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are relatively strong, affected by the rising sentiment of coking coal and the news of production cuts by a leading northwest enterprise. However, with increasing supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited [1][2]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded, but the fundamentals are weak with high inventory, increasing supply after southwest restart, and possible decline in consumption. The market is easily affected by capital sentiment and policy disturbances [3][6]. Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7600 yuan/ton and closed at 7720 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 321342 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 27 was 53234 lots, a decrease of 29 lots from the previous day [1]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas on June 26 was 54.2 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from the previous week. The inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 12.8 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 41.4 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton, and the price was temporarily stable, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [1]. Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures rebounded significantly, opening at 30745 yuan/ton and closing at 31715 yuan/ton, a 3.46% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 77132 lots, and the trading volume was 225035 lots [3]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, with the polysilicon inventory at 27.00 tons, a 3.05% increase, and the silicon wafer inventory at 20.11GW, a 7.30% increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 23600.00 tons, a decrease of 3.67%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.44GW, an increase of 4.10% [3]. Market Analysis - Silicon Wafer and Battery - Silicon wafer prices: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.23 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.02 yuan/piece [5]. - Battery prices: High - efficiency PERC182 battery was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Factors to Monitor - The resumption of production and new capacity commissioning in the northwest and southwest regions [4]. - Changes in the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises [4]. - Policy disturbances [4]. - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4]. - The operating rate of silicone enterprises [4]. - The impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [8]. - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [8]. - The impact of capital sentiment [8]. - The impact of policy disturbances [8].