Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The silicon price rebounded due to a false rumor of a major company's equity sale, and it is expected to decline again, but the subsequent downward space may be limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, with the transaction price moving down. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem, it is expected that the polysilicon price will not show an upward trend in the short term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon's不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) also remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 2.54% to 7,475 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the flood season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, with overall high hesitation, low willingness to resume production, and overall production decline [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and high inventory pressure. After the false rumor is confirmed, the silicon price is expected to decline again, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, the polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price fell 1.83% to 34,105 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some factories may have new capacity put into production, with the expected output within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuously falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, slow market demand, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, and the polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short term. The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the changes on the supply side [1]. Other Information - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project entered the main - structure construction stage, with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 tons [1]. - Hesheng Silicon Industry denied rumors of a planned equity transfer [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: The upside potential is limited, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: It is recommended to short on the futures market [1] Group 2: Core Views - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2507: The closing price is 7,475 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 539,994 lots and an open interest of 177,663 lots [1] - PS2507: The closing price is 34,105 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 123,726 lots and an open interest of 64,383 lots [1] Basis and Price - Industrial silicon: The spot premium against different benchmarks varies, and prices in different regions have declined over different time periods [1] - Polysilicon: The N-type refeed material price is 36,500 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to a month ago [1] Profit - Silicon plant profit: In Xinjiang and Yunnan, it remains in the negative range, with some changes over time [1] - Polysilicon enterprise profit: It is -4.7 yuan/kg, showing a certain degree of change [1] Inventory - Industrial silicon: Social, enterprise, and industry inventories show different trends, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory has decreased [1] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 26.9 tons, with a slight change [1] Raw Material Cost - Various raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have price changes in different regions [1] Other Related Industries - Organic silicon: DMC price and enterprise profit have changed [1] - Aluminum alloy: ADC12 price and recycled aluminum enterprise profit have changed [1] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On June 5, the Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project entered the main structure construction stage after the successful first steel structure hoisting of the 1 smelting workshop, with a total investment of nearly 1.5 billion yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend. The large number of warehouse receipts has brought great delivery pressure to the market. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy in the medium - and long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7475 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the position of the main contract is 177,592 lots, with a change of - 736 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 37,782 lots, down 4,899 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX are 60,573 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is 0, up 25 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 675 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 38,700 tons, down 200 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 58.67%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, down 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The second - phase project of silicone rubber of Hubei Zheng'an New Materials Co., Ltd. was put into production at the beginning of the year and has officially entered the production stage. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. With the approaching of the wet season, Yunnan and Sichuan are gradually entering the wet season, but the south - west region has no intention to resume work [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Natural Rubber**: Short - term macro warming drives rubber price rebound, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 14,000. Attention should be paid to the raw material volume in each production area and macro events [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to pick up, but the supply increase is larger. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. However, the rebound of coal prices provides some support, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [3]. - **Polysilicon**: In June, there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, and the cost support may decline. It is recommended to close long positions and even try shorting on high prices [5]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, in the long - term, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory after maintenance. It is advisable to consider 7 - 9 calendar spreads and short on rebounds in the far - month contracts. For glass, it still faces over - supply pressure after the short - term market sentiment boost. The price may be strong in the short - term but will be under pressure later [6]. 3. Summary by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.48% from June 5. The full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was 100 yuan/ton, up 1900% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 890 yuan/ton on June 6, down 10 yuan or 1.14% from June 5 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production was 105,700 dry tons, down 29.16% from the previous period; Indonesia's production was 194,100 dry tons, down 7.26%. The weekly start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory was 614,584 tons on June 6, up 0.06% from the previous day. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 21,873 tons, up 23.99% [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) was 1,015 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2506 - 2507 spread was 0 yuan/ton on June 6, up 100% from June 5 [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 12.10% from the previous month. The production of organic silicon DMC was 184,000 tons, up 6.48% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang inventory was 190,800 tons on June 6, up 0.37% from the previous day. The social inventory was 587,000 tons, down 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The N - type material basis (average price) was 1,760 yuan/ton, down 10.20% [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The bs2506 contract price was 34,740 yuan/ton on June 6, up 0.58% from June 5. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,260 yuan/ton, up 43.49% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the polysilicon production was 96,100 tons, up 0.73% from the previous month. The weekly silicon wafer production was 130,400 GM, down 2.69% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 269,000 tons on June 6, down 0.37% from the previous day. The silicon wafer inventory was 20,020 GM, up 7.81% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On June 6, the North China glass quotation was 1,160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The glass 2509 contract price was 997 yuan/ton, up 3.53% [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On June 6, the North China soda ash quotation was 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soda ash 2509 contract price was 1,212 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [6]. - **Supply**: In late May, the soda ash operation rate was 78.57%, down 0.08% from the previous period. The weekly soda ash production was 685,000 tons, up 1.08% [6]. - **Inventory**: In late May, the glass inventory was 67,762,000 square meters, down 0.01% from the previous period. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.6243 million tons, up 1.37% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area in real estate was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points from the previous period; the completion area growth rate was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points [6].

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 估值低位易受扰动，基本面仍待改善 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 8 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 6 月四川进入丰水期，部分硅厂陆续复产。云南 7 月进入丰水 期，由于电价没有明确给予优惠，因此大部分硅厂仍处于观望 状态。需求端仍无明显起色。盘面快速下跌后，硅厂惜售，期 现手中的货源出货情况较好，但硅厂惜售也导致工厂库存不断 累积，不排除库存压力下部分硅厂仍将降价出货。目前盘面价 格几乎跌破全行业现金成本线，后续关注供给的进一步变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 节后现货成交较少，采购方压价情绪强烈，而一线硅料厂仍在 挺价，导致双方处于僵持状态，二三线料厂前期价格有所下 移。6 月硅料排产上调至 9.6 万吨，单月仍有望去库 1 万吨左 右。前期下游备货使得原材料库存变动较大，但备货主力仍为 前期原材料库存较高的几家硅片厂，其余硅片厂无太多原材料 囤货。下 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/06 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/29 145 564 98671 32165 -810.64 212.82 89.0 105.0 51.57 152375 74450 2025/05/30 175 665 105791 34128 -778.22 155.91 86.0 100.0 50.08 149875 74850 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 变化 -5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after the China-US call, the commodity sentiment has improved, and the profit - taking of short positions in most under - performing commodities may lead to a market rebound. Industrial silicon will be affected to some extent, and there may be abnormal fluctuations in the disk due to short - term position reduction. The fundamentals change little, with the futures price oscillating and the spot price stabilizing [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak. With the short - term improvement in commodity sentiment and more capital games, the disk may maintain a wide - range oscillation [4][6]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On June 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract 2507 opened at 7200 yuan/ton and closed at 7135 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.56%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 183,965 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 6, 2025 was 61,309 lots, a decrease of 494 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 - silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - On June 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from last week. The inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 135,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts) was 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week [1]. - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 11300 - 11600 yuan/ton. The average price this week decreased slightly by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. The opening quotation of DMC on the online mall of Shandong monomer enterprises was 11400 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with last week. The DMC quotations of other domestic monomer enterprises were 11500 - 11600 yuan/ton. The local transaction price in the domestic DMC market declined, terminal demand weakened, and some enterprises with relatively high inventory levels slightly lowered prices to attract orders [2]. Strategy - The one - side strategy is mainly range operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On June 5, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures maintained an oscillating pattern, opening at 34,810 yuan/ton and closing at 34,540 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 0.27% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 65,802 lots (67,873 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 127,429 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The quotations of polysilicon re - feedstock were 32.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 269,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, the silicon wafer inventory was 20.02GW, a month - on - month increase of 7.80%, the weekly polysilicon output was 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.85%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.04GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67% [4][5]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 yuan/piece [5]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.25 yuan/W (down 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction prices of PERC182mm were 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm were 0.69 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm were 0.69 - 0.69 yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The one - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Report on Polysilicon 1. Core View - Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures are oscillating and falling. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re - feeding material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon average prices remained unchanged on June 5th compared to June 4th. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 decreased by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained stable [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Core View - Industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand may recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. Supply is expected to grow, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various varieties decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 and 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 and 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 6.48%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 0.73% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory - warehouse inventories increased slightly, while social inventory decreased by 0.34%. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the soda ash futures rebounded at night. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. Consider a 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term short - selling on the far - month contract [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the glass futures rebounded at night. The spot market is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after June. The industry needs capacity clearance, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, and Central China glass quotes remained unchanged, while South China quotes decreased by 0.76%. Glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased slightly, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - economic recovery drives rubber prices to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Consider short - selling when the price exceeds 14000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to raw material supply in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [5]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 1.12%. The basis of whole latex increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. Domestic tire production, tire exports, natural rubber imports, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: June 06, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of Si2507 was 7,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. The trading volume was 417,845 lots, and the open interest was 183,965 lots, with a net increase of 3,637 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 8,400 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Sichuan was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang was 8,400 yuan/ton [4] - Outlook: The spot price continued to fall, and the losses have not yet led to a concentrated reduction in supply. The weekly output in the first week of June is expected to remain at around 69,000 tons. Different from polysilicon, the industrial silicon market needs to be vigilant about the resumption of production pressure during the wet season. There is no increase in demand in June. If the consensus on polysilicon production cuts is reached again, it will actually continue to be negative for industrial silicon. The organic silicon enterprises have been collectively cutting production to support prices since April, and exports are stable with little room for increase. The spot inventory continues to increase. The low point of the main contract price during the session was at a discount of over 1,000 yuan/ton and fell below the full-industry cash cost, showing signs of bottoming out in the short term. However, it is still difficult to improve the fundamentals, and short - selling funds are dominant. The rebound space is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly [4] Group 3: Market News - On June 05, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 61,309 lots, a net decrease of 494 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data, in April 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.19%. The overall export volume in April increased slightly compared with March. The overall overseas market was relatively stable, and the change in export volume was small. The average export price was 1,478 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.42%, mainly affected by the low price of the domestic industrial silicon market [5]