Macro Dynamics - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Germany's claim that the Chinese military aimed a laser at a German aircraft, stating that the information is inconsistent with China's understanding of the facts [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in June 2025, the industrial producer price index decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that 402 new drugs have been added to the national medical insurance drug list since the 14th Five-Year Plan began [4] Financial Institutions - BNP Paribas completed the acquisition of AXA Investment Managers, integrating it into its group, managing over €1.5 trillion in assets post-acquisition [9] Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13% on July 9, with a total market turnover of approximately ¥1505.19 billion [13] - The financing balance of the two markets increased by ¥5.48 billion, reaching a total of ¥1845.97 billion [14] Company Dynamics - Hongta Securities expects a net profit of ¥651 million to ¥696 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 55% [11] - Hainan Province's former transportation investment chairman was prosecuted for bribery, indicating potential governance issues within state-owned enterprises [18] - BYD announced comprehensive coverage for users of its "Heavenly Eye" vehicles in smart parking scenarios, with over 1 million units in circulation [19] - Huaxi Biological passed the FDA's cGMP inspection with zero defects, indicating strong compliance in its production processes [21] - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit of ¥900 million to ¥960 million for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [22]

7月9日周三，A股尾盘翻绿，三大股指集体走低，沪指回到3500点下方，大金融涨幅居前，医药板块午后走强。港股延续跌势，恒指跌超1%，恒 科指跌2%，科网股、芯片股等普跌，生物科技板块逆势上涨，恒瑞医药涨超12%。债市方面，国债期货走高。商品方面，黑色系商品快速拉升， 多晶硅再度大涨。核心市场走势： A股：截止发稿，沪指跌0.12%，深成指跌0.25%，创业板指跌0.04%。 | 代码 | | 两日图 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 3493.41 | -4.06 | -0.12% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 10561.54 | -26.86 | -0.25% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 2180.13 | -0.95 | -0.04% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 3989.85 | -8.61 | -0.22% | | 000016 | FiF50 | | 2741.70 | -5.49 | -0.20% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | ...

Core Viewpoints - The debt issue of a country is related to its economic development level, with developed countries having higher average debt ratios than developing countries due to the costs associated with development [1][18] - Despite the weakening of the dollar, it remains a strong currency, and the U.S. and Japan have significant debt issues but still possess resilience and coping mechanisms [1][31][34] - China faces noticeable debt pressure but has distinct advantages, and there is no need for excessive concern regarding government credit [1][42] Debt Research Perspective - Long-term perspectives are essential in debt research, as historical analysis can provide insights into future economic directions and asset allocation [6][7] - The growth of government debt is often linked to major international events, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, which necessitated increased government borrowing to maintain stability [7][8][9] Global Debt Landscape - Countries are experiencing significant debt pressures, but they also have advantages and resilience, allowing for investment opportunities amidst crises [3][22] - The U.S. government debt is approximately $36 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1 trillion, raising concerns about liquidity and the ability to refinance [23][24] China's Debt Structure - China's debt structure is unique, with a strong central government and significant state-owned assets, leading to a relatively strong repayment capacity despite high overall leverage [37][40][42] - Local government debt is a concern, particularly due to hidden debts and the reliance on investment for economic growth, which needs to be addressed for sustainable development [44][45][48] Investment Opportunities - In a high-debt environment, investors should look for opportunities during market downturns, as government interventions often stabilize markets [58][60] - Gold is viewed as a long-term investment with upward trends expected due to ongoing global issues and uncertainties [62][61] Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a growth rate above 5%, supported by consumption and investment policies, despite potential downward pressures in the latter half of the year [63][70][72] - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to perform well, with narrowing valuation gaps between A-shares and H-shares, indicating a more mature investment environment [76][78][79]

Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Direction Index survey indicates that the central rate of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) may continue to decline in July, and the necessity to restart government bond trading in the short term is reduced [1] Group 1: Market Liquidity Outlook - The survey involved 20 market institutions, with 12 expressing an optimistic view on the overall liquidity in July, indicating no liquidity gap [1] - Six institutions assessed the liquidity as neutral, estimating a liquidity gap of less than 1 trillion yuan [1] - Two institutions predicted a potential tightening phase, with a liquidity gap ranging from 1 trillion to 2.06 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Interest Rate and Bond Market Expectations - Multiple market institutions anticipate that the central rate of interbank CDs may continue to decline in July [1] - The resumption of central bank bond purchases is expected to take time, as the market adjusts to the influx of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks [1] - A bullish trend in the bond market is anticipated, suggesting that early positioning in potential investment varieties for incremental funds may be a favorable strategy [1]

·7月4日，因港元触及7.85弱方兑换保证，香港金管局单日购入296.34亿港元，创2017年来最大规模干预 纪录。两周内累计买入达590.72亿港元，银行体系总结余降至1145.41亿港元。 ·特朗普：美联储主席鲍威尔应立即辞职 ·澳洲联储意外维持关键利率在3.85%不变 【市场资讯】 ·中国人民银行和香港金管局宣布数项债券通优化扩容的措施，包括扩大南向通参与机构范围，加入券 商、保险公司、理财及资产管理公司；优化离岸人民币债券回购业务，允许回购期间债券再质押使用 等。 【资讯导读】 ·欧盟批准保加利亚自2026年1月1日起使用欧元，成为欧元区第21个成员国。欧元与保加利亚列弗的固 定汇率为1.95583列弗兑1欧元。 ·中国人民银行和香港金管局宣布数项债券通优化扩容的措施 ·欧盟批准保加利亚自2026年1月1日起使用欧元 ·美国总统特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应立即辞职。此外，特朗普还表示，经济顾问委员会的 一项新研究发现，关税对通胀毫无影响。 ·法国总统马克龙于7月8日开始对英国为期三天的访问，这是自2008年以来首次，也是英国脱欧后首个 欧盟国家领导人访英。 ·澳洲联储意外维持关键利率在3.85% ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering additional sanctions against Russia and has approved more defensive weapon shipments to Ukraine [2] - Japan reported a record high of 16,943 people hospitalized for heatstroke in June, the highest since records began in 2010 [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission of China announced a new investment of 10 billion yuan to support employment initiatives, aiming to create jobs for 310,000 people [6] Group 2 - France's President Macron is on a state visit to the UK, marking the first visit by a French president since 2008 and the first by an EU leader since Brexit [4] - The Chinese logistics sector saw a significant increase in e-commerce logistics index, reaching a new high of 111.8 points in June [12] - The Chinese government aims to increase the availability of childcare services, targeting 4.5 childcare spots for every 1,000 people by 2025 [8] Group 3 - The China Securities Association is conducting a comprehensive survey of the securities industry to prepare for the upcoming "China Securities Industry Development Report (2025)" [10] - GAC Fiat Chrysler has declared bankruptcy due to an inability to repay debts and lack of assets to cover liabilities [24] - The stock market saw significant movements, with Intel shares rising over 7% while major banks experienced declines [28]

三是优化"互换通"运行机制，进一步满足投资者的利率风险管理需求。在今年已丰富产品期限和类型的 基础上，中国人民银行将建立报价商动态管理机制，扩充互换通报价商队伍，并调整互换通每日交易净 限额。 值得注意的是，香港金融管理局7月8日在其官网公布了有关离岸人民币债券回购业务优化的具体安排， 以进一步便利债券通北向通投资者参与离岸人民币债券回购业务，相关优化措施将于2025年8月25日正 式启动。具体优化措施包括支持抵押品债券在回购期间再使用、支持外币结算（包括港元、美元和欧 元）。 香港金融管理局表示，上述两项优化措施旨在对标国际市场惯例、提升市场操作便利，以进一步拓展离 岸回购市场的深度和广度，完善离岸人民币流动性市场化安排机制，并提升在岸人民币债券在离岸市场 作为抵押品的使用。 （文章来源：证券时报） 7月8日，在债券通周年论坛2025上，中国人民银行金融市场司副司长江会芬表示，近年来内地与香港金 融市场互联互通机制运行高效平稳，进一步巩固了香港国际金融中心和全球离岸人民币业务枢纽地位。 中国人民银行与香港各方面共同努力，先后推动债券通"北向通""南向通""互换通"落地，持续提升内地 与香港金融市场的联通水平 ...

特朗普周一表示将对韩国、日本等国征收25%的关税，并对其他亚洲和非洲国家征收30%~40%不等的 关税，但生效日期被推迟至8月1日，这为谈判留出了更长的时间窗口。 然而，此次关税风暴的冲击不及4月，美国三大指数跌幅不到1%。7月8日开盘后，亚太股市表现更令人 意外，日、韩股市并没有明显受到关税的影响，日经225指数、韩国Kospi指数分别涨0.25%、1.81%， 上证综指和恒生指数分别涨0.7%和1.09%。 随着关税进入第二季，市场的心态显然出现转向。接受第一财经记者采访的投资经理和策略师表示，市 场对关税的担忧有所下降，高盛认为，近期看起来欧美贸易谈判达成协议的可能性变大，尤其是德国和 意大利首脑的态度，可能会实现一个框架协议，然后留有时间进行后续的谈判。同时，机构对股市的配 置热度普遍升温，投行更是逆势上调美股目标价，投资者亦更敢于加码包括中国在内的亚太股市；但不 变的在于，各界对美债可持续性的担忧持续，因而弱美元的共识依旧存在，机构开始严肃对冲美元的敞 口，全球央行增配黄金的趋势仍将继续。 关税第二季下风险资产淡定 就目前而言，仅英国、越南和美国达成协议，其他谈判结果仍不明确。美国财长贝森特在上周日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economic governance paradigm is undergoing profound evolution, characterized by the shift from a single power structure to a more collaborative and shared governance model, emphasizing multilateral participation and institutional restructuring [6][10]. Group 1: Global Economic Governance Changes - The current global economic governance is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism, and the acceleration of digital and green transformations, leading to a weakening of global growth momentum [6][12]. - The restructuring of financial order is a significant manifestation of adjustments in global governance, highlighting the need for a diversified sovereign currency coexistence and orderly competition [7][12]. - The role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) is evolving from crisis response to regular operation, enhancing their integration into trade, financing, and reserve systems [7][21]. Group 2: China's Role in Global Governance - China is transitioning from a rule-taker to a rule-maker in global economic governance, promoting high-level opening-up and aligning with international high-standard trade rules [8][12]. - The country is developing a comprehensive policy framework around digital payments, green finance, and data regulation, aiming to create replicable international governance solutions [8][12]. - China's commitment to multilateralism and shared development is evident in its efforts to enhance institutional compatibility and participation depth within the global governance system [7][8]. Group 3: Future Governance Paradigms - The future of global economic governance remains undefined, with key variables including the restructuring of multilateral mechanisms, the rule-based advancement of technological governance, and the diversification of the international monetary system [8][10]. - Balancing national sovereignty with global cooperation, efficiency with fairness, and risk prevention with innovation will be crucial for the effectiveness and sustainability of future governance frameworks [8][12].

日本首相石破茂周二表示将继续与美谈判，寻求达成互利贸易协议。此前特朗普宣布自8月1日起对日本 商品加征25%关税。特朗普周一虽向贸易伙伴发出大幅增税通知，但暗示若各国提出可接受方案或将推 迟实施。 据报道，韩国贸易部长吕翰九在华盛顿与美国商务部长卢特尼克会晤时，还要求美方降低韩国企业在汽 车、钢铁等领域的关税。 财务大臣加藤胜信周二在记者会上表示，目前暂无计划与美国财政部长贝森特就汇率问题进行磋商。 日本未能在特朗普"对等关税"临时暂停令7月9日到期前达成协议，其谈判重点本是取消汽车25%关税 ——这是其出口依赖型经济的支柱产业。随着7月20日参议院选举临近，石破茂强调日本不会为尽早达 成协议作出"轻易让步"。近期民调显示执政联盟可能失去参议院多数席位，分析师称这将使贸易谈判复 杂化。 美国关税加剧日本经济困境，该国一季度经济已现萎缩。5月实际工资创近两年最大降幅，政府周一更 作出近五年来最悲观经济评估。SMBC日兴证券预计25%关税将导致2026年3月截止的财年经济增长减 少0.26个百分点。 日本综合研究所分析师藤本和树指出："虽避免最坏情况，但25%关税仍将使出口企业利润骤降25%"， 并警告"若企业利 ...