Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday bond market continued to recover mainly because the pressure on the bank's asset - liability gap was lower than expected. Factors included government bond digestion pressure not being too high, most due deposits being renewed, and an increase in the speed of foreign exchange settlement under the expectation of RMB appreciation [6][9]. - Since 2025, the "quantity and price decline" of large - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has often led to a downward repair of bond market interest rates. After the holiday, it is necessary to focus on whether CDs can continue the pre - holiday trend of "quantity and price decline" [6][9][11]. - The key to whether bond interest rates can continue to break through after reaching critical points depends on whether CD interest rates can "as expected" continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: Pay Attention to Whether CDs Can Continue the "Quantity and Price Decline" after the Holiday - The pre - holiday bond market recovery was due to three factors: government bond high growth not causing much digestion pressure, bank deposit loss not being serious as most due deposits were renewed, and the positive impact of increased foreign exchange settlement on the bond market [6][9]. - The "quantity and price decline" of large - bank CDs since 2025 has been correlated with the downward repair of bond market interest rates, and this time is no exception [6][9]. - After the holiday, it is necessary to observe whether there are more factors to ease the bank's liability pressure and whether the central bank will reduce other ways of base money injection [11]. - Since the end of 2024, CD interest rates have often shown "anti - seasonal" fluctuations, and it is worth noting whether they will continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: The Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds Remains at a High Level in the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Domestic Inflation and Financial Data Will Be Released - China will announce January CPI, PPI and other data, and the US will announce January unemployment rate and other data [15][16]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Around 712.1 Billion - The total issuance of interest - bearing bonds this week is expected to reach 712.1 billion. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue 210 billion, local bonds 322.1 billion, and policy - financial bonds about 180 billion [17][18]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Bond Market Interest Rates Mostly Decline 3.1 The 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Injection Started - After the month - end, the scale of open - market operation injections decreased. The 7 - day reverse repurchase scale decreased last week, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase injection started in the second half of the week, with a net withdrawal of 756 billion [22][23]. - The increase in cross - month capital interest rates was controllable. The repurchase trading volume increased, and the overnight proportion reached a high level. The overnight price and DR007 both declined [23]. - The issuance volume of CDs increased, and the price continued to decline. The net financing amount of CDs was positive, and the proportion of medium - term CDs decreased [29]. 3.2 The Bond Market Sentiment Remained Optimistic - Last week, there was little new information in the bond market. After the month - end, funds were loose, and the equity and commodity markets mostly declined. The bond market sentiment remained optimistic, and most interest rates declined [39]. - The 10Y treasury bond reached a critical point, and more catalysts may be needed for a downward breakthrough. Most yields of interest - bearing bonds with different maturities declined, with only the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly [39]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Were Hit - On the production side, the trends of operating rates were divergent. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. The year - on - year decline in the daily average crude steel output in late January widened [45]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were still negative. The land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased significantly compared with the same period of last Spring Festival. The export indices declined [45]. - On the price side, most commodity prices declined. Crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices decreased, and the price of coking coal futures also decreased. The comprehensive building materials price index and cement index decreased slightly, while the glass index increased. The price of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork mostly declined [46].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-10 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that by the end of 2025, Shaanxi Province's total loan balance is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan, with significant growth in various sectors, including manufacturing, small and micro enterprises, and green loans [2][3][4] - By the end of 2025, the loan balance for the manufacturing sector is projected to grow by 9.79%, while loans for small and micro enterprises are expected to increase by 13.68% [3] - The total social financing scale in Shaanxi is estimated to increase by 536 billion yuan in 2025, with 203 non-financial corporate debt financing instruments issued, amounting to 179.32 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - Shaanxi Province has implemented a comprehensive financial strategy, including five major articles and multiple specialized policies to promote technological innovation and support various sectors such as consumption and carbon reduction [4] - The province has seen a 30.96% year-on-year increase in loans to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises and a 21.35% increase in loans to the elderly care industry by the end of 2025 [4] - The cross-border payment scale in Shaanxi reached 57.843 billion USD in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.49%, and a net inflow of 2.969 billion USD [6]

来源：《财经》杂志 凯文·沃什曾任职摩根士丹利并购部，2006年-2011年担任美联储理事。2026年1月30日，他获特朗普提名美联储主席后，全球金融市场连锁反应凸 显 文｜顾欣宇 唐郡 编辑｜张威 北京时间2026年1月30日，美国总统特朗普正式宣布提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为美联储主席。这一事件犹如一场风暴，逆转了年初以来的市场 趋势。 当日，美元指数由跌转涨，上涨超0.7%；本就陷入"过山车"行情的贵金属加速下行，现货黄金一度日内跌超7%，银价一度日内跌超16%；美股三 大指数收盘集体下跌，道指跌0.36%、纳指跌0.94%、标普500指数跌0.43%；MSCI亚太指数一度下跌1.2%。 中信银行（国际）首席经济学家丁孟认为，由于过去凯文·沃什的货币政策立场偏向鹰派，使得市场担心若其提名通过担任联储主席，可能不会像 之前估计的那样引导央行多次降息，因此其提名的消息带动美元上涨。 另一方面，他曾经表达美联储资产负债表过大的观点，使得市场担心在利率决议转鹰的同时将伴随美联储进一步的缩表行动，故拉高了美债整体 收益率。上述两方面影响通过机会成本作用传递到股市和大宗商品市场，对于上述市场也产生了短期负面影响。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The central bank's "structural" interest rate cut and the CSRC's work conference set a positive tone for the bond market. The central bank's move is conducive to maintaining a stable liquidity environment and alleviating credit risks, while the CSRC's policy aims to improve the quality, adjust the structure, and expand the scale of the credit - bond market, promoting its development in line with national strategies [3][12][16] - The bond market presents more structural opportunities. It is recommended to focus on medium - to high - grade, medium - to short - term bond varieties, and closely follow subsequent policies, credit risk changes, and the behavior of wealth - management funds [3] Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15, 2026, and increased the quota of relevant tools. This operation is a "precision - drip" measure, which is expected to improve liquidity marginally, lower capital costs, and support the real economy, especially small and medium - sized enterprises and private enterprises. It has a positive impact on the short - end of the interest - rate bond and helps maintain the stability of medium - to high - grade credit spreads [10][11][12] - The CSRC held a system - wide work conference on January 15, 2026, proposing to "improve the quality, adjust the structure, and expand the scale" of the bond market. It will optimize the supply structure of the credit - bond market, strengthen risk prevention, and promote the development of the commercial real estate REITs pilot, which is expected to enhance the bond market's service to the real economy and national strategies [14][15][16] Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5% at constant prices, achieving the annual target. The economic growth momentum showed a "high - in - the - front, low - in - the - back" trend. Consumption maintained growth with the retail sales of consumer goods reaching 50.12 trillion yuan, a 3.7% increase. The investment side was under pressure with a 3.8% year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment, while the production side remained resilient with the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size growing by 5.9% year - on - year [4][18] Money Market - Last week, the central bank net injected 111.28 billion yuan through open - market operations. However, due to approaching tax - payment periods, a strong start to credit, and the maturity of high - interest time deposits, most capital prices rose. Except for a 3bp decline in DR007, the pledged - repo rates for other tenors increased by 2bp - 11bp. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor remained stable, and the spread between them was basically the same as the previous week [5][21] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, credit - bond issuance cooled slightly. The issuance scale was 259.401 billion yuan, and the average daily issuance was 51.88 billion yuan. By bond type, the issuance scales of different bonds varied. By industry, the infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance scale decreased by 47.663 billion yuan to 83.845 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 38.154 billion yuan; the industrial bond issuance scale increased by 25.302 billion yuan to 152.917 billion yuan, and most industries had net inflows. The issuance costs of most credit bonds decreased by 2bp - 36bp, except for the 3 - year AA+ bonds, whose issuance cost rose by 14bp [6][24][25] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market cash - bond trading volume was 9.054899 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 6.5887 billion yuan to 181.098 billion yuan, indicating active trading. Affected by the correction of the equity market, large - scale net injections in the open market, and expectations of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, the bond - market sentiment improved. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 4bp to 1.84%. Most credit spreads widened, and most rating spreads narrowed [7][34][38] Appendix - There were multiple credit - risk events in the bond market in 2025, including principal and interest extensions and defaults of bonds issued by real - estate companies, financial institutions, etc. [47] - There were several regulatory and market innovation dynamics in 2025, such as tax - exemption policies for overseas institutional investors in the domestic bond market, the release of business guidelines by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the launch of the ICBC - CCDC Panda Bond Index series, and the optimization of the M&A note mechanism by the NAFMII [48][50] - The monthly net financing amounts of major credit - bond types in 2024 - 2025 were provided, showing significant fluctuations [50]

Group 1 - The capital market is experiencing increased volatility, leading to a common concern among investors about where to allocate their funds [1][17] - The topic of "fixed income +" is gaining popularity on social media, with many investors recognizing its defensive strategy during market fluctuations [2][10] - Financial institutions are actively promoting "fixed income +" products, with significant growth in demand observed in early 2025 [3][12] Group 2 - "Fixed income +" is characterized as a combination of stable income from fixed assets and performance bonuses from equities and other assets, appealing to investors seeking both stability and growth [8][10] - The "fixed income +" strategy aligns with the trend of wealth management focusing on stability while still aiming for additional returns [11][13] - The market for "fixed income +" products has seen a substantial increase, with a reported growth of 16% year-on-year, reaching a total of 10.8 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [12][18] Group 3 - The average annualized return for "fixed income +" products is approximately 4%, outperforming pure bond funds while maintaining lower volatility [20] - Financial institutions are expected to diversify their strategies to include more equity exposure through "fixed income +" and multi-asset approaches, potentially bringing in an additional 150 to 250 billion yuan in annual funds [21][22] - The rise of "fixed income +" reflects a shift in investor behavior towards more proactive and diversified asset allocation strategies [33]

c , 洞见趋势 解读财富 2026/0202 2026/0208 哥报 ann 1975 L 1 2 图片来源:IC 拍 外 ·如何再造一个新广药? 董事长李小军透露了两个关键动作 戶信 未来五年将关闭80%现有门店并重新布局,所有新 开门店面积不得低于400平方米,重点打造以IP产品 七八五十八九十二日女『书人。十六 八仅小时 示四尔 胆级| J点。 名创优品创始人、董事会主席兼CEO叶国富 双 您 ·多名"金融副市长"赴省联社任职, 这一人事布局有何深意? 网 | ·农发行一副行长被查!在该行工作20余年 DEF ·林朝晖正式履新广发银行行长! 去年该行个人AUM突破万亿元 ·北京农商行新班子官宣: 白晓东升任董事长,田晖任行长 · 徐明杰正式履新招商银行首席风险官! 去年未该行不良率下降 · 恒健控股董事长唐军免职退休 ·郭川担任第一创业新任董事长 【头条】 马斯克团队考察光伏产业链？上市公司密集回应 对此，多家光伏产业链公司在回应中强调，目前并未与马斯克团队达成实质性合作，并提示"太空光伏"仍处早期阶段，投资者 应理性看待相关概念；且光伏调整期下公司业绩处于大幅下滑或亏损态势，提醒投资者审慎投资。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - This week (2026.2.2 - 2026.2.6), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 dropped from 1.81% last Friday to 1.802% this Friday, a decrease of 0.8bp. The bond market oscillated within a very narrow range, with 1.8% becoming the invisible lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield. It is recommended to add duration cautiously to avoid the disturbances brought by the recovery of production demand after the Spring Festival and the goals of the Two Sessions in March [1][9][14]. - The significant fluctuations of overseas assets in the early stage have been repaired this week. The market's divergence is significantly increasing, and the previous structured market is undergoing "destructuring". It is expected that at least in the first half of 2026, the technology growth will maintain its momentum. The subsequent interest rate path is still dominated by fundamental data [15]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US fluctuates in the short - term, and the number of continued claims declines. The unemployment rate steadily rises, and the labor participation rate fluctuates weakly, indicating the structural pressure in the employment market. The year - on - year increases of the US CPI and core CPI continue to narrow, and the inflation pressure is further alleviated. The Fed has pressed the "pause button" on interest rate cuts, and the global monetary policy shows significant "diversification" characteristics [16][18][19]. Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Views - **Analysis of the Bond Market's Narrow - Range Oscillation**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 decreased. The bond market oscillated in a narrow range. The central bank's net purchase of Treasury bonds in the open - market in January 2026 was 100 billion yuan, the highest since the resumption of Treasury bond trading last October, but more restrained compared with 2024. The reasons are that it can supplement the liquidity gap at the beginning of the year and reduce the bank's liability cost, and the central bank tends to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity [1][9][14]. - **Analysis of the Future Trend of US Treasury Yields**: Overseas asset fluctuations have been repaired. The technology growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the first half of 2026. The Fed's policy signal has turned dovish this week, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. The subsequent interest rate path depends on fundamental data [15]. - **Analysis of US Economic Data**: The US labor market has a "low - hiring, low - firing" pattern, and the employment market has structural pressure. The inflation pressure in the US is further alleviated, and the manufacturing shipment volume and inventory total expand synchronously. The Fed has paused interest rate cuts, and the global monetary policy shows "diversification" [16][18][19]. 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From 2026/2/2 to 2026/2/6, the total net investment in the open - market was - 756 billion yuan, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [29]. - **Interest Rate Comparison**: The money - market interest rates, including R, DR, and SHIBOR, showed different degrees of decline this week compared with last week [34]. 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity Price Changes**: Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have all declined. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, vegetable price indices, RJ/CRB commodity price indices, and South China industrial product price indices have shown different trends [52]. - **Stock and Bond Market Performance**: The VIX panic index led the increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai Stock Index led the decline. The short - end and long - end of the US Treasury yield curve have both risen [62][68][71]. 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: This week, 90 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 579.673 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 300 million yuan, and a net financing amount of 579.373 billion yuan, mainly invested in the comprehensive field [81]. - **Regional Issuance**: 15 provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and the top five in terms of total issuance amount were Jiangxi, Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. 11 provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, and the top five in terms of total issuance amount were Jiangsu, Henan, Jiangxi, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Chongqing [85][89]. - **Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 3.6 billion yuan, all from Anhui Province. Since November 15, 2024, the total early redemption scale of national urban investment bonds has been 121.007 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest redemption scale [91][95]. 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local government bonds this week was 55.89 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 437.52 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.78%. The top three provinces with active local government bond trading were Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. The top three trading - active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [99]. - **Yield Changes**: The maturity yields of local government bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [102]. 3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and cities such as Zhejiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hunan, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing from February 9 to February 11, 2026, are presented [106]. 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Overall Issuance**: This week, 440 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 358.206 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 102.182 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 256.024 billion yuan, an increase of 100.335 billion yuan compared with last week [107]. - **By Bond Type**: Urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of 57.856 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 198.167 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of 35.325 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing amount of 88.497 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing amount of - 2.186 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing amount of 124.115 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing amount of 10.273 billion yuan [108][114]. 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds increased by 6.61bp, medium - term notes decreased by 14.33bp, and corporate bonds increased by 3.54bp [124]. 4.3 Secondary Market Trading Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 561.09 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for each bond type [125]. 4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of national development bonds declined across the board this week. The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the yields of enterprise bonds generally declined, and the yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [124][126][127][128]. 4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes increased across the board, the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally increased [130][132][134]. 4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [137][141][145]. 4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, optional consumption, and daily consumption [149][151]. 4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks this week [152].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The central bank's over - renewal of repurchase and large - scale 14 - day reverse repurchase reflect its intention to maintain liquidity stability before the Spring Festival. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the capital market around the Spring Festival is expected to remain loose. The net financing of certificates of deposit this week may be due to banks' need to maintain stable liabilities before the festival, and it's hard to infer a significant increase in banks' liability pressure. The government bond net payment scale may rise next week, but considering the central bank's measures, the capital market is still expected to be relatively loose [5][38][60]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Capital Market Review - The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of 756 billion yuan through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases this week. On Wednesday, it conducted an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase, with an over - renewal of 10 billion yuan. After the month - end, the OMO shifted to net withdrawal, but the capital demand at the beginning of the month was limited. Despite the increasing pressure of government bond payments in the second half of the week, the over - renewal of the 3 - month repurchase and the subsequent 14 - day OMO operations made the capital market looser, and DR001 fell below 1.3% on Friday [3][17]. - After the month - end, the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to rise, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 0.95 trillion yuan to 8.75 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase rose rapidly at the beginning of the month and then fluctuated, remaining above 13 trillion yuan on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks continued to rise, while that of small and medium - sized banks decreased slightly. The net lending of non - bank institutions showed different trends, and the capital gap index generally declined [4][24]. - The progress of cross - Spring Festival financing in the inter - bank and exchange markets was at the lowest level in recent years, and the gap compared with previous years in the inter - bank market continued to widen. The overall cross - Spring Festival progress in the whole market was 13.1%, 8.1 percentage points lower than the average of the same period from 2020 - 2025 [29]. 1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 46.04 billion yuan. Next week, the issuance of 7 - year treasury bonds is about 20 billion yuan, and 8 regions will issue local bonds worth 32.21 billion yuan. Due to the low maturity scale of government bonds next week, the net payment scale of government bonds may rise to 71.41 billion yuan [39][41]. - The central bank's use of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations shows its clear attitude of protecting liquidity. The 6 - month repurchase due next week is expected to be over - renewed, so the capital market is expected to remain relatively loose [60]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 1.11 BP to 1.6169% compared with January 30th. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1 BP to 1.585% compared with last week [61]. - This week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased, resulting in a net financing of 37.27 billion yuan, an increase of 46.29 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 9.46 billion yuan, 8.82 billion yuan, 13.69 billion yuan, and 2.59 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 9 - month certificates of deposit was the largest, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 17 percentage points to 13% compared with last week. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 97.82 billion yuan, an increase of 84.43 billion yuan compared with this week [67]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks all increased compared with last week, and were around the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [68]. - The willingness of money market funds to increase the holding of certificates of deposit in the primary market recovered, and the willingness of fund companies to reduce the holding in the secondary market weakened. The relative strength index of certificates of deposit rebounded counter - seasonally in the second half of the week, rising by 3.9 percentage points to 19.6% compared with last week. Except for the 9 - month supply - demand index, the supply - demand indexes of other terms increased [75]. 3. Bill Market - This week, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, with a large decline on Monday. As of February 6th, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased by 44 BP and 16 BP respectively compared with January 30th, to 1.01% and 0.95% [82]. 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward, and the credit and perpetual bond spreads generally widened passively. Large - scale banks generally tended to reduce their bond holdings, with an increased willingness to reduce local bonds and a decreased willingness to increase inter - bank certificates of deposit, 5 - year policy - financial bonds, 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds. Trading - type institutions generally tended to increase their bond holdings, with different trends among different institutions. Allocation - type institutions generally tended to increase their bond holdings, with different trends among different institutions [85].

Group 1: Market Overview - Credit bond yields generally declined this week, with credit spreads widening passively[1] - The overall equity market was weak, while the central bank supported the liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a stronger bond market[1] - The 5-year credit spreads for Puxin bonds widened significantly after a previous compression, while 1-2 year AA real estate bonds performed well with a substantial narrowing of spreads[1] Group 2: Divergence in Bond Performance - The overall demand structure for bank perpetual bonds may be weaker compared to Puxin bonds due to regulatory impacts and changing investment preferences[2] - After a compression of excess spreads, the coupon value of perpetual bonds has decreased, influenced by weak market trading sentiment[2] - Concerns over redemption pressures in secondary bond funds have increased due to volatility in the equity market, leading to heightened selling pressure on perpetual bonds[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Current market conditions lack a clear trading theme, with short-term pricing factors expected to be neutral[3] - Focus on high convexity products is recommended, particularly in the 3-year and under category, where fund and wealth management demand is high[3] - For 4-5 year products, Puxin bonds near 4 years are highlighted for their high convexity, with yields around 2.5%[3]