地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/10/15 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.64%报 4159.60 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.17%报 50.35 美元/盎司。 2. 国际能源署发布看空预测，WTI 原油主力合约报 58.59 美元/桶；布伦特原油 主力合约跌 ...

金融体制改革进一步深化 "十四五"期间，金融体制改革全面深化，顶层设计更加完善，我国金融治理体系和治理能力现代化迈上 新台阶。 2023年，中央金融委员会和中央金融工作委员会设立。中央金融委员会负责金融稳定和发展的顶层设 计、统筹协调、整体推进、督促落实，研究审议金融领域重大政策、重大问题等；中央金融工作委员会 指导金融系统党的政治建设、思想建设、组织建设、作风建设、纪律建设等。 中央金融委员会、中央金融工作委员会的设立，加强了党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导，将中国特色 社会主义制度的政治优势和制度优势转化为金融治理效能。 2023年，国家金融监督管理总局在原银保监会基础上组建，统一负责除证券业之外的金融业监管。证监 会调整为国务院直属机构，强化资本市场监管职责。至此，我国金融监管体系由"一行两会"迈入"一行 一局一会"新格局。 中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，新架构通过顶层设计优化，有效减少 了监管套利和制度性交易成本，增强了市场透明度和稳定性。监管效能的提升体现在风险防控能力的强 化上，高风险机构数量和高风险资产规模大幅压降，地方中小金融机构风险处置通过"一省一策"等机制 有序推 ...

进入四季度，债市多空博弈渐烈。 全国银行间同业拆借中心数据的债券现券买卖数据，也展示了新券各期限品种交易成交价格的上行。9 月，国、股、城、农商行的9月现券成交金额为146366.88亿元：大行现券买卖到期收益率为1.7215%， 股份行为1.8093%，城商行为1.8058%，农商行为1.8437%，证券公司更是高达2.0275%。 近期债券市场收益率再次反弹，十年期国债收益率震荡上行。截至10月14日，十年期国债收益率为 1.8591%。券商中国记者注意到，多家机构研报和债券交易员的预测均为十年期国债收益率的震荡区间 是在1.5%到1.9%之间。也就是说，四季度才刚刚开始，十年期国债的收益率就已经逼近研究员预测的 今年最高值。 与去年债市单边走牛的行情相比，今年以来债市呈现宽幅震荡的特征（年初至今震荡区间已约 30bps），"波段难做"愈发成了多家行债券自营团队普遍感受。 9月现券收益率创出今年次高 券商中国记者查阅全国银行间同业拆借中心数据，从债券现券买卖的表现看，各期限品种债券收益率震 荡上行成了一个很难忽略的现象： 有业内人士告诉券商中国记者，股债跷跷板效应、监管反内卷态度、增值税政策调整等一系列因 ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Forecasts - Bank of America raised its gold price forecast for next year to $5,000 per ounce, with an average of $4,400 per ounce, and silver to $65 per ounce, with an average of $56 per ounce [1] - The extreme imbalance in the physical silver market may normalize at some point, potentially increasing volatility [1] Group 2: Currency and Interest Rate Predictions - HSBC believes the US dollar is likely to weaken further and may hit a bottom early next year, especially if the Federal Reserve resumes a loosening cycle while avoiding recession [2] - Standard Chartered analysts suggest that if the US economic momentum remains strong, the likelihood of further rate cuts in 2026 may decrease, which could push up the dollar and US bond yields [3] - Dutch International Group anticipates that the UK government may limit inflationary policies in its November budget, paving the way for further rate cuts by the Bank of England [4] Group 3: UK Economic Outlook - Dutch International Group analysts indicate that the UK economy's actual performance is not as weak as reported, but the combination of tightening fiscal policy and loosening monetary policy may pressure the British pound [5] - The UK Chancellor will need to implement tax increases or spending cuts to reduce the fiscal deficit, which may lead to a higher risk for the pound compared to the euro [5] Group 4: Australian Monetary Policy - Nomura Securities suggests that the Australian currency market has overestimated the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as recent policy meeting minutes indicate a lack of clarity on economic capacity and neutral cash rate levels [6] Group 5: AI Industry Developments - CITIC Securities reports that OpenAI's collaboration model of "procurement contracts + equity" with industry chain companies is beneficial for the entire AI ecosystem, aiding in stable computing resources and model capability [7] - The upcoming release of AI products in late 2025 is expected to accelerate commercialization, with significant events including OpenAI's Sora 2 launch and Meta's AI glasses [8] Group 6: Shipping and Trade Dynamics - Huatai Securities analyzes the impact of mutual port fees between China and the US on shipping, suggesting that it may lead to a reallocation of global shipping resources and increase freight rates [9] - The report indicates that if port fees continue, it will systematically raise global oil and bulk shipping rates, benefiting Chinese shipping companies while negatively impacting container shipping [9] Group 7: Export Growth and Economic Indicators - Huatai Securities notes that China's export growth remains strong, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in September, driven by AI industry demand and the Belt and Road Initiative [10] - Despite a potential slight decline in export growth rates in Q4 due to high base effects, the overall economic outlook remains positive [10] Group 8: Market Trends and Investment Focus - Huatai Securities highlights that post-holiday market trends are volatile, with a focus on cyclical sectors and defensive stocks as investors shift their attention [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring third-quarter earnings reports in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on companies with stable demand and improved competitive dynamics [12]

10月14日，央行在官网发布公告称，2025年10月15日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 6个月（182天）。 | | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | | 服务互动 | | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中心 | 网上调查 | 意见征集 | 金融知识 | | 首页 | 2025年10月14日 星期二 式逆回购业务公告 | | 我的位置:首页 | > 货币政策 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's tax revenue and invoice sales are showing steady recovery, reflecting a positive economic trend driven by various policies and improved market confidence [1][2][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue from the manufacturing sector increased by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing showing rapid growth [2] - Domestic value-added tax (VAT) rose by 3.2%, while corporate income tax grew by 4.1%, indicating improved profitability in certain industries [2] - Capital market-related tax revenue surged by 56.8%, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 110.5%, highlighting active stock market trading [3] - Real estate-related tax revenue decline has narrowed, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with nearly 800 billion RMB in new tax reductions implemented this year [3] - The overall tax data illustrates the effectiveness of incremental policies aimed at boosting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and activating the capital market [3]

三类美元资产内部分散风险机制失灵，传统"无风险资产"美债的定价锚功能显著弱化……这些变化反映的不仅仅 是美国经济"基本面"的变化和市场的周期性波动，更是美元资产的内源性、结构性问题，以及由"美元资产不再安 全"引发的金融市场剧烈波动 一是美国股市债市汇市频现"三杀"局面。 在现行国际货币体系中，美元占全球外汇储备近60%，全球贸易56%的份额以美元结算，全球离岸融资中60%为美 元融资。美国国债作为"安全资产"，长期以来是全球投资者的避险首选。近来美国金融市场频现历史罕见的股债 汇"三杀"局面，预示着美元"安全资产"不再安全。 "对等关税"政策宣布后，美股三大指数均一度创下五年来最大单日跌幅。美债也面临市场恐慌性抛售，美国10年 期国债收益率一周上涨48.5个基点至4.494%，创下自2001年11月以来的最大单周涨幅。与此同时，美元汇率下跌 明显，2025年以来美元指数从109跌至约98，下跌近10%。4月10日美元指数更是下跌2%，创下2022年以来单日最 大跌幅。 自2025年1月20日重返白宫以来，特朗普围绕关税战和政府改革两大主题，辅以外交、移民、能源等措施，以密集 节奏和激进方式施政，意图以关税政 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is "flat" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a complex global economic and financial situation, with various factors influencing different markets. The U.S. economic data shows a "schizophrenic" state, and the global economic order is facing challenges. Meanwhile, China's economic indicators are positive, and the AI competition between China and the U.S. has changed the situation [1][2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Important Information - After U.S. President Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China on the 12th, U.S. stock index futures rose [1] - The spread between the near - month New York silver futures contract and the London silver spot reached $2.73 per ounce, a multi - year high. The one - month implied lease rate of London silver spot has risen to 40.3%, and the free - floating volume in the London silver market has dropped by 75% compared to the 2019 high [1] - The core driving force of the gold price is the market's expectation of the "order reconstruction" of the global political and economic situation, and its upward trend may not end [1] - Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that the rapid growth of U.S. government debt and intensifying internal and external conflicts are creating a situation "very similar" to that before World War II [1] - U.S. consumer spending and AI capital expenditure are strong, with third - quarter consumer spending growing nearly 3%, but the employment market has slowed down and the unemployment rate has risen, which poses challenges to asset pricing [1] - The era when the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is above 4% is coming to an end [1] - The U.S. stock bull market that started in October 2022 has reached its third anniversary, with the S&P 500 index rising 83% and its market value increasing by $28 trillion. The current valuation is at a record - high price - to - earnings ratio of 25 times [1] - The Houthi rebels said they would stop attacking Israeli and Israel - related ships in the Red Sea if Israel complies with the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip [1] - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for Alibaba's capital expenditure in the next three years to 460 billion yuan, believing that AI capital expenditure transformation is reshaping Alibaba's growth expectations [1][2] Global Economic Logic - China's September exports were $328.5 billion, with an 8.3% year - on - year increase, and imports had a 7.4% year - on - year increase, reaching a six - month high for exports and a 17 - month high for imports [2] - China's control of rare earths is a firm response to the U.S. restrictions on mature - process semiconductor equipment and materials. Interrupting the U.S. AI chip production may lead to a catastrophic decline in U.S. stocks [2] - According to the HSBC emerging markets survey, China is the preferred stock investment market. International capital is actively increasing its positions in China's technology sector [2] - Huawei's Ascend chips are leading NVIDIA in computing power. Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [2] - Due to the U.S.'s continuous wrong policies, the global economy is entering the top - region [2]

·潘森宏观：欧元区微弱增长难撼高降息门槛，欧央行行动受限 ·野村证券：日本众院选举结果将成日元波动关键驱动力 ·德商银行：贸易多元化削弱美元需求，"去美元化"冲击储备地位 ·Karobaar Capital：日本政局动荡推高政治溢价，持续压制日元 【机构分析】 ·潘森宏观分析师表示，尽管欧元区经济前景低迷，但欧洲央行在未来几个月内不太可能因此启动降 息。预计欧元区第三季度GDP将实现约0.1%的微弱增长，虽增速疲软，但略好于欧洲央行预期的"零增 长"。当前经济乏力主要受制造业下滑拖累，欧洲央行或视其为暂时现象。当前欧元区GDP数据尚不足 以显著提升欧洲央行在12月或明年初降息的概率，相关门槛仍然很高。 ·野村证券指出，日本众院选举联盟结果将直接驱动日元波动。若自民党单独执政，恐触发"高市交 易"逆转。股市承压、超长期国债遭抛售、日元进一步走弱。 ·德商银行策略师指出，美元跌幅迄今有限，贸易伙伴加速多元化直接削弱美元结算需求，"去美元 化"合力或动摇其全球主要储备货币地位。 ·Karobaar Capital分析指出，日本政局动荡抵消了避险需求，日本公明党退出联合政府，高市早苗首相 前景不明，政治溢价持续压低日 ...

si TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融评论 商务部:针对美方单边主义行为, 240 | 中方将坚决采取必要措施维护自身权益 倪虹:让老房子通过 改造变成"好房子" Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 .. Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 | 目录 CONTENTS 2025年第41期 总额240期 2025年10月13日 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎ 商务部：针对美方单边主义行为,中方将坚决采取必要措施维护 自身权益 ◎ 央行连续第11个月增持黄金 重大会议 MEETINGS ◎ 倪虹:正在研究让老房子通过改造变成"好房子" 重大政策 POLICIES ◎ 工信部等七部门近日联合印发《深入推动服务型制造创新发展 实施方案（2025—2028年）》 EVENTS ◎ 财政部 税务总局发布《企业兼并重组主要税收优惠政策指引》 重要数字 DATA ◎ 我国外汇储备规模较8月末上升165亿美元 热点 聚焦 商务部：针对美方单边主义行为，中方将坚决采取必要措施维护自身权益 01 美国宣布计划对中国征收100%关税，商务部回应称，中方明确指出，美方加征100%关税及扩大 ...