Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 20, with a fixed rate and a total of 324 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 324 billion yuan, while 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market funding conditions remained stable, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate rising over 5 basis points to around 1.37%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system maintained at 1.30%, with supply exceeding 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions' overnight borrowing rates for pledged credit bonds were around 1.49%, slightly higher than the previous day. Traders noted that the upcoming tax period caused a slight increase in funding prices, but overall liquidity remained loose [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.62%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields. The 30-year main contract for government bonds rose by 0.52%, the 10-year by 0.13%, the 5-year by 0.09%, and the 2-year by 0.05% [11]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, stated that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on increasing total volume, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum. The fiscal deficit and total debt will maintain necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending intensity will "only increase" and key areas will be "stronger" [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Deputy Director, Wang Changlin, indicated that the current economic operation faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The focus will be on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [12]. Group 6: Tax Policies - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced the continuation of tax and fee preferential policies for community family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [13]. Group 7: LPR Rates - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, maintaining stability for eight consecutive months since a decrease in May 2025 [13].

● 本报记者 吴杨 "2025年，我持有的投资产品收益平平。2026年，我打算认真配置'固收+'理财产品。"一位广东投资者 在社交平台上的感慨道出不少人的理财心声。 在存款利率持续下行、传统固收产品收益率承压的背景下，以固收类资产为底仓，辅以权益投资等策略 增厚收益的"固收+"理财产品，正迅速成为投资者资产配置中的重要选项。 "固收+"产品受青睐 顺势而起 "固收+"赛道的快速崛起并非偶然，而是多重因素共同作用的结果。 随着存款利率进入下行通道，传统债券收益率维持在较低水平，居民庞大的储蓄资金面临再配置的迫切 需求。华源证券固收首席分析师廖志明表示，资管新规打破刚兑后，"固收+"或成为承接万亿元级存量 资金的主力工具之一。邮储银行（601658）研究员娄飞鹏认为，理财公司发力此类产品，正是为了应对 低利率环境下纯固收产品吸引力下降的挑战。 同时，一笔规模可观的资金正在酝酿转移。中邮证券固收首席分析师梁伟超提供了一个重要的观察： 2023年一季度，大量资金流向三年期定期存款。按期限推算，这部分存款将在2026年一季度集中到期。 然而，定期存款的吸引力已大不如前。在低利率成为常态且权益市场可能存在结构性机会的预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of "high-interest fixed deposit maturities" is expected in 2026, with approximately 50 trillion yuan of funds set to be released, reshaping the asset allocation landscape for residents [1][6][7]. Group 1: Background and Causes - The upcoming maturity wave is a result of two overlapping funding cycles: high-interest fixed deposits from 2020-2021 and passive savings due to market pressures in 2022-2023 [1][5]. - In 2020-2021, banks initiated a high-interest deposit campaign, with five-year fixed deposit rates reaching as high as 5%, leading to a significant accumulation of funds maturing in 2026 [4][6]. - The passive savings trend emerged in 2022-2023 due to market volatility, prompting many investors to redeem their investments and seek safety in fixed deposits [5][7]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Current fixed deposit rates have significantly decreased, with major banks offering rates around 1.2% for three-year deposits, down from previous highs [8][9]. - Despite the decline in interest rates, many conservative investors are likely to continue renewing their fixed deposits due to a low tolerance for risk and a preference for capital preservation [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Alternatives - The market is witnessing a competition among various financial products, including fixed deposits, wealth management products, insurance, and funds, to attract the migrating capital [1][11]. - "Stable" wealth management products have gained popularity as they offer better returns than current fixed deposit rates, with some achieving annual yields above 3% [11][12]. - Insurance products are also becoming a favored option, with long-term stable returns appealing to investors seeking safety and growth [14][16]. Group 4: Fund Management and Future Outlook - Fund management companies are expected to enhance their asset management capabilities to effectively attract and manage the incoming funds from maturing deposits [20]. - The shift in investor sentiment towards diversified financial products indicates a potential for sustained growth in the insurance and fund sectors, particularly for products that offer a balance of safety and returns [17][18].

去年特朗普威胁要颠覆全球贸易和金融时，丹麦养老基金率先减少了美元敞口，并将资金汇回国 内。"抛售美国"交易兴起，投资者纷纷抛售以美元计价的资产。 Peel Hunt首席经济学家Kallum Pickering指出，鉴于特朗普近期对美联储的抨击，如果美欧冲突升级加 剧市场对美国政策公信力严重受损的担忧，恐将对美元构成压力。"这种压力可能因欧洲人尤其希望撤 回资本并避开美国资产而加剧，这也可能对美国科技股高估值构成下行风险。" 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 受格陵兰岛紧张局势影响，1月20日，现货黄金、纽约期金双双突破4700美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 消息面上，据新华社20日报道，美国总统特朗普称将对法国葡萄酒和香槟征收200%的关税。 特朗普17日还在社交媒体上宣布，将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和 芬兰的输美商品加征10%关税，并宣称加征关税的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相关方就美 国"全面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 在黄金大涨背后，去美元化趋势正在加速。 德意志银行外汇研究主管George Saravelos指出，美国存在一个欧盟可以利用的关键弱点 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively declined, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 2% at one point. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.79% [1][14] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 69.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][14] Gold Market - Gold-related ETFs saw gains, with the Gold Stock ETF rising by 2.45% and the Gold Fund ETF by 0.72%. The spot price of gold in London surpassed $4,700 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions [6][19] - The ongoing liquidity easing and de-dollarization trends are expected to provide stable support for gold prices. A recent report indicated that global central bank gold reserves have surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996 [7][20] Real Estate and Building Materials - The building materials sector performed well, with the Building Materials ETF increasing by 3.88%. The second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with significant week-on-week increases in transaction prices in key cities [8][22] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, such as lowering loan rates and adjusting down payment ratios, are expected to support the building materials sector. The total transaction volume for new and second-hand homes is projected to remain strong at 1.2 to 1.3 billion square meters [8][22] Communication Sector - The communication sector experienced a pullback, with the Communication ETF declining by 3.14%. This was attributed to recent fund outflows and disappointing earnings forecasts from some companies [10][23] - Looking ahead, demand for optical modules is expected to surge, driven by major tech companies. The supply side is anticipated to face shortages, particularly in laser components, which could enhance profitability in the sector [12][24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The market is perceived as the true intelligence, and it is essential to follow its direction rather than attempt to predict outcomes independently [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market shows signs of warming, with long-term bonds being particularly attractive. The concentration of borrowing for 30-year bonds reached 30%, and the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds is at 50 basis points, a level not seen since the introduction of 30-year bond futures [6]. - The interbank funding market is balanced and slightly loose, with a significant drop in long bond yields. The central bank conducted a 3.24 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3.586 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 346 million yuan [3]. - The stock market is experiencing fluctuations, with no unexpected information from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.8325% and fluctuated, reaching a low of 1.815% before recovering to 1.825% [5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Trading Data - The weighted average rates for various interbank funding instruments are as follows: RO1 at 1.42%, R007 at 1.54%, R014 at 1.63%, and R1M at 1.63%. The trading volume for RO1 was approximately 78.17 billion yuan, while R007 had a volume of about 7.44 billion yuan [4]. - The financing balance in the stock market has decreased, indicating a cooling effect on the market. The dynamics between large-cap and small-cap stocks are shifting, with large-cap stocks struggling to outperform small-cap stocks [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends in A-shares, highlighting significant sell-offs in growth sectors and the implications of financing regulations on market behavior [5][6][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares experienced a notable index-level pullback, primarily affecting growth sectors [5]. - Financing positions recorded their first net sell-off in 26 years, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6]. - The recent financing regulations, which increased margin requirements from 80% to 100%, may have contributed to this sell-off [6]. Group 2: ETF Activity - Broad-based ETFs saw substantial net sell-offs, with over 58 billion sold in a single day, and a total of over 240 billion in three days [8]. - The trading volume of major ETFs has decreased compared to previous days, suggesting a cooling off in market enthusiasm [8][10]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The satellite and commercial aerospace sectors have experienced significant declines, with the satellite industry index dropping over 20% from its peak [11]. - The article attributes this decline to speculative trading and the influence of e-commerce and content platforms promoting high-risk investments [14]. Group 4: Investment Platforms - WeBank, a leading internet bank, offers advantages for personal investors, including T+0.5 redemption for funds, enhancing capital efficiency [19][20]. - New users of WeBank can benefit from discounted fund purchases by completing a financial literacy course [21]. - WeBank's stringent volatility control for financial products is seen as beneficial for clients [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and also increased the growth forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. AI - driven IT investment growth is becoming an important driver for the global economy [2][16]. - The Chinese economy's 2025 "report card" shows that GDP grew by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with the service industry's share in GDP rising to 57.7%, and final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, while fixed - asset investment declined by 3.8% [2][13]. - In the stock market, on Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation with major indices showing different trends. A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, and AI is a strong driver for corporate performance growth [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous period and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 49.8% in the previous period, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous period [1]. - Social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous period, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous period and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's 2025 economic data shows overall growth in multiple sectors, with a decline in fixed - asset investment, especially in real - estate development investment [2]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss Trump's tariff threat and consider counter - measures, and is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures contracts starting from January 21 [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - COMEX gold futures' February contract reached a record high of $4698 per ounce on January 19, approaching the $4700 mark, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of a decline in the US dollar's credit. Gold ETFs and futures are more suitable for short - term investment [4]. - Japan will use 39 billion yen in reserve funds to ensure rare - earth supply [5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved an increase in tin futures delivery warehouses and their approved storage capacities in Guangdong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early January, key steel enterprises' daily crude - steel output was 1.997 million tons, a 10.51% increase from the previous period but a 3.29% decrease year - on - year. Pig - iron and steel production also showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [7]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, which will enhance the global iron - ore supply [7]. - Shanxi produced over 13 billion tons of coal in 2025, and 65 billion tons during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, an increase of 19 billion tons compared to the 13th Five - Year Plan [7]. - Coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, enriching the risk - management tools for the coal - coke - steel industry chain [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 price forecast for TTF natural gas to 36 euros [9]. - Venezuela has officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. - After Maduro's downfall, many trade and oil companies are competing for the deal to export Venezuelan crude oil to the US [9][10]. - China National Coal Group will promote the clean and efficient use of coal, transforming it from a fuel to "raw material + material" [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The average price of live pigs rebounded this week. On January 16, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.07 yuan per kilogram, up 0.6% from January 9, and the average price this week was 18 yuan per kilogram, up 0.3% from last week [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 19, the central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan after 86.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases matured [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - China's 2025 economic data, including population changes, shows a decrease in the population by 339,000 [13][14]. - In December 2025, housing prices in major Chinese cities showed different trends, with some cities' price declines narrowing and Shanghai's new - home prices rising [14]. - The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance will hold press conferences to introduce relevant economic policies [14]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized high - quality development, calling for more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [15]. - The central bank will announce the January LPR on January 20 [15]. - The Supreme People's Procuratorate has made arrangements to use legal power to serve high - quality development, including cracking down on economic crimes and safeguarding the capital market [17]. - The CSRC's 2026 system work meeting has outlined a clear path for capital - market reform [18]. - In 2025, the number and scale of registered insurance asset - management products decreased [18]. - There is a heated discussion about the "2026 time - deposit maturity wave", with different views on the scale, but most banks are not worried [19]. - There are several bond - related events, such as bond rating changes and early redemptions [20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The bond market showed an overall weak and oscillating trend, with most Treasury - bond futures closing down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rising slightly. Some bonds like Vanke and AVIC Industry Finance bonds rose [21]. - The money - market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [22][23]. - The yields of some financial bonds were determined in the bidding process, and European bond yields mostly increased [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9636 on January 20, up 54 basis points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was 7.0051, up 27 basis points [25]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.32% in New York's late trading, and most non - US currencies rose [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income states that the issuance of new special bonds this year is faster than in previous years but has not significantly accelerated. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 2026 is 2.1179 trillion yuan, similar to the same period in 2025 [27]. - CICC Fixed - Income suggests that in the current fluctuating interest - rate bond yield environment, credit - bond yields may follow the fluctuations, especially for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. It also recommends paying attention to short - term trading opportunities and non - financial credit bonds with a remaining term of about 5 years. The future spread of science - and - technology innovation bonds depends on the change in the scale of science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs [27]. - CITIC Securities believes that Trump's tariff threat is a means to test the EU's attitude, and the change of Greenland's territory is difficult to achieve. If the US takes real actions, gold may benefit, the US dollar's credit may be damaged, and European assets may be under pressure [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - On Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%, and the total market turnover was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day. Power - infrastructure, AVIC - related, and Hainan Free - Trade - Port concepts led the gains, while semiconductors and consumer electronics led the losses [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points, with pharmaceutical stocks leading the decline and aviation stocks rising. South - bound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$2.3 billion [32]. - A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, with 156 out of 451 companies reporting positive pre - announcements, and 42 companies expecting a net - profit increase of over 100% year - on - year [32].

近日，央行发布了2025年金融统计数据报告，全年人民币存款增加26.41万亿元，同比多增 8.42万亿元。 其中，住户存款增加14.64万亿元，与上年相比基本持平（2024年为14.26万亿元）。从近十 年趋势看，住户存款增量普遍呈现上升趋势，虽然低于2022年的峰值，但仍维持较高规模。 与之相对，住户贷款去年仅增加4417亿元，与2021年峰值时期的年新增近8万亿元相比，增 量仅为其百分之五。 值得一提的是，2025非银行业金融机构存款增加6.41万亿元，同比多增3.82万亿元，增量更 是创下自2015年以来的新高。有专家表示，12月非银存款同比大幅多增，与当月以来权益市 场成交金额的火热相匹配。 居民"多存少贷"，存款增量环比提升2.58万亿 从央行发布的2025年金融统计数据报告看，12月末，本外币存款余额336.14万亿元，同比增 长9%；月末人民币存款余额328.64万亿元，同比增长8.7%。 增量方面，全年人民币存款增加26.41万亿元，同比多增8.42万亿元。不过，与之相比，全年 人民币贷款增加16.27万亿元，增量不及存款。 注：新浪金融研究院 同花顺ifind数据显示，我国居民部门存款总额在 ...

Group 1 - As of the end of Q3 2025, global official gold reserves reached approximately $3.69 trillion, accounting for 28.9% of total official reserves, marking a new high since 2000 [4][10][33] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92% in Q3 2025, the lowest level since 1995, continuing a trend of being below 60% for over ten consecutive quarters [10][33] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been increasing its gold reserves consistently, with a total increase of 1,151 million ounces (approximately 358 tons) since November 2022 [2][12][16] Group 2 - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves has been ongoing for 15 years, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024 [24][26] - In 2025, central banks added 634 tons of gold, maintaining a high level compared to the average of 473 tons from 2010 to 2021 [8][24] - Emerging market central banks, particularly Turkey and China, have been significant contributors to gold purchases, with China being the largest buyer in 2023 [7][27] Group 3 - The World Gold Council's report indicates that the demand for gold from central banks is expected to remain strong, with over 90% of surveyed central banks anticipating an increase in gold reserves by 2026 [43] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the desire for diversified reserve assets are driving central banks to favor gold over traditional assets like US Treasury bonds [9][36] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is influencing central banks to increase their gold holdings as a hedge against the risks associated with US dollar assets [36][43]