Economic Indicators - Export high-frequency indicators have started to weaken, with the SCFI showing a month-on-month decline of 6.8% and a drop in growth rate by 14.9 percentage points[4] - Real estate sales continue to decline, with May's sales area down 4.6% year-on-year and residential sales area down 5.5% year-on-year, reaching a new low since the Spring Festival[4] Policy Implications - The weakening of both export and real estate data suggests a potential for increased domestic policy support, although the intensity is expected to be less than the incremental policies introduced after September 26 last year[4] - The State Council has indicated a need to optimize existing policies to stabilize expectations and activate demand, signaling possible policy adjustments[4] Economic Growth Outlook - Despite the challenges, the economic performance in the first half of the year is better than the same period last year, with GDP growth likely to exceed 5%[4] - The current economic environment suggests that a GDP growth rate slightly below 5% in the second half could still meet the annual growth target[4] Investment Trends - Investment growth continues to decline, with real estate investment hitting a historical low, indicating that consumer spending alone may not offset negative external factors[4] - The average weekly transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities has remained below 2 million square meters since April, down 23.1% compared to the average levels in Q4 last year and Q1 this year[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The building materials industry is facing significant downward pressure due to a continued contraction in downstream demand, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to a substantial year-on-year decline in revenue and profit for 2024. However, there are signs of improvement in Q1 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability [1][19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Building Materials Industry Overview - In 2024, the building materials industry achieved revenue of 587.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.51 billion yuan, down 47.94% year-on-year. The decline in net profit was more pronounced than the revenue drop, primarily due to an increase in expense ratios and credit impairment losses [1][19] - The overall gross margin for the building materials sector in 2024 was 19.93%, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased to 14.10%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [1][28] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment experienced a revenue of 127.64 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.89 billion yuan, a decline of 45.08%. The drop in net profit was greater than the revenue decline due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios [2][45] - In 2025 Q1, the consumer building materials sector showed signs of recovery, with a notable improvement in operating cash flow and gross margins for certain sub-segments, such as boards and coatings [2][12] 3. Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass sector reported revenue of 55.60 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.06% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.30 billion yuan, down 46.99%. However, the decline in profit was less severe than in previous years, indicating a gradual recovery [3][13] - In 2025 Q1, the fiberglass sector saw a revenue increase of 25.24% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 165.66%, attributed to price adjustments and improved demand [9][12] 4. Cement Sector - The cement sector faced a revenue drop of 21.81% in 2024, totaling 308.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.83 billion yuan, down 40.49%. However, by 2025 Q1, the sector's revenue decline narrowed to 6.93%, and net profit increased by 119.22% [10][14] - The gross margin for the cement sector improved in 2025 Q1, reaching 15.75%, an increase of 4.49 percentage points year-on-year [10][54] 5. Glass Sector - The glass sector's revenue in 2024 was 51.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.59%, with a net profit of 0.29 billion yuan, down 93.22%. The sector continued to struggle with high inventory levels and declining prices [11][12] - In 2025 Q1, the glass sector's revenue was 10.52 billion yuan, down 19.51% year-on-year, but net profit improved to 0.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.16% [11][12] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, which are expected to see improvements in demand and profitability. Key companies to watch include Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Oriental Yuhong [12][14] - For the fiberglass sector, the report highlights the potential for significant earnings growth in 2025, particularly for companies with overseas production lines [13][14] - In the cement sector, the report notes that prices are still at historical lows, but improvements in supply-side policies could alleviate industry supply-demand imbalances [14]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性上升，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向将主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【530-570】 | | LPG | | 成本端油价走强，基本面边际改善，液化气短线偏强。原油受伊以冲突带 | | | | 动走强，成本端利好；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE 开工率上升； | | | 偏强 | 库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：短线偏强，波动加剧，双买 | | | | 期权。PG【4300-4400】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 成本支撑好转，期现齐涨，华北基差为-18（环比-17），关注后续库存去 化力度。本周装置重启计划偏多，预计产量继续增加；社会库存转为累库， | | | | 农膜需求淡季，下游补库动力不足，后市中游存在继续累库风险。策略： | | | | 短期地缘冲突尚不明朗，空单减持。基差维持负值，上游企业可择机卖保。 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The youngest female billionaire in the world, Lucy Guo, emerged at the age of 30 after Meta's investment of approximately $15 billion in Scale AI, raising the company's valuation to $29 billion [1] - Scale AI, founded in 2016 by two young Chinese entrepreneurs, provides data labeling services for artificial intelligence, capitalizing on the growing demand for AI technologies [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs is raising its largest-ever S fund, targeting over $14.2 billion, coinciding with significant fundraising activities from other major firms like Blackstone and Apollo [2] - Blackstone recently executed a $5 billion S transaction, indicating a competitive environment for S fund investments [2] Group 3 - NIO's associated company, Hezhong New Energy, has entered bankruptcy reorganization, with the case being updated on the national bankruptcy reorganization information website [3] - The bankruptcy case was initiated by Shanghai Yuxing Advertising Co., indicating potential challenges for NIO in the electric vehicle market [3] Group 4 - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group has entered into a collaboration with AstraZeneca worth over $5 billion, which includes an upfront payment of $110 million and potential milestone payments totaling up to $1.62 billion [3] - The deal also includes potential sales milestone payments of up to $3.6 billion, showcasing CSPC's strategic growth in the pharmaceutical sector [3] Group 5 - Pop Mart's newly opened store in Hangzhou was forced to close shortly after opening due to internal issues, while its first jewelry brand store, "popop," opened in Beijing [3] - This move reflects Pop Mart's diversification strategy into the jewelry market, aiming to expand its business portfolio [3] Group 6 - The film "Nezha 2" has grossed over 15.8 billion yuan globally, with the production company potentially receiving around 5.2 billion yuan based on current revenue-sharing rules [3] - The chairman of the production company suggested a need to adjust the profit-sharing model in the Chinese film industry to ensure sustainable investment in filmmaking [3] Group 7 - Dvision Medical completed nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing, with the funds aimed at accelerating the registration and commercialization of surgical robots [6] - The investment was led by Panlin Capital, indicating strong interest in innovative medical technologies [6] Group 8 - Meichuang Medical secured a significant equity financing round, with participation from various investors, focusing on developing peripheral vascular and tumor intervention products [7] - The company aims to leverage the founder's extensive industry experience to enhance its market position [7] Group 9 - Xinyuan New Materials completed a Series C financing round, with exclusive investment from Xiaomi's equity investment fund, focusing on the development of silicon carbide packaging materials [8] - This funding marks a significant step for the company in the third-generation semiconductor materials sector [8]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 纯碱：供应、 库存 05 纯碱：价格、 利润 06 01 玻璃：供应 端情况介绍 02 玻璃：价格 与利润 03 玻璃：库存 及下游开工 光伏玻璃： 价格与利润、 04 CONTENTS 产能与库存 玻璃观点：中期震荡市 第一，短期现货偏弱，全国各个地区玻璃价格普遍下跌。就中期而言需要注意6月地产偿债高峰因素、湖北仓 单定价对盘面压制因素，暂不宜对玻璃过度高看，但低位下跌空间也有限，长期看需要注意09合约作为一个 旺季合约，盘面定价却亏损幅度较大，玻璃未来波动率或较大； 第二、趋势上多头交易的核心支撑主要在政策端未来可能因地产收储、政府财政支持，政策资金保障加强后 保交楼落地预期增强、现货价格较低，处于历史价格25%分位以下、厂家长期亏损、09合约旺季预期； 第三、空头交易房 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the US May CPI and core CPI were both below expectations, suggesting that overall inflationary pressure remains moderate. Following the data release, the market slightly adjusted its expectations for Fed rate cuts, anticipating two cuts within the year, with the first expected in September. It is noted that tariffs have not yet fully manifested their impact on inflation, and risks of inflationary pressure still exist in the US [3]. Group 2: Fixed Income Strategy - The report emphasizes a "barbell strategy" in fixed income investments, focusing on both technology and domestic demand defensive themes. The previous period's barbell strategy yielded a return of 15.98% for selected convertible bonds, with all holdings generating positive returns. The report suggests maintaining high-rated large base bonds while increasing holdings in mid-to-low priced convertible bonds and quality targets in popular themes [4]. Group 3: Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is currently in a bottoming process, with cement companies experiencing a 16.99% decline in revenue and a 19.99% drop in net profit in 2024. The industry is relying on staggered production halts to stabilize prices, which often leads to increased average losses before prices recover. The glass industry also faced significant declines, with revenues down 11.1% and net profits down 88.6% in 2024. However, there are signs of potential recovery in 2025, particularly in the glass fiber sector, which has shown improved profitability in recent quarters [5][6][7]. Group 4: Electronics Sector - The report on Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) highlights its diversified layout in storage, MCU, and sensor fields, with storage revenue expected to exceed 70% in 2024. The company is positioned as the second-largest player in the global NOR Flash market and is anticipated to see significant growth in its DRAM business. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.36 billion, 11.46 billion, and 13.55 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.46 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.38 billion yuan [8].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 13 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货6月12日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变 | | | | | | | | （%） | （万手） | 化 | | SA509 | 1198 | 1199 | 1171 | 1175 | -28 | -2.32 | 160.23 | 105598 | | SA601 | 1185 | 1185 | 1161 | 1165 | -22 | -1. ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1% [2][5] - The chemical chain shows resilience, with soda ash operating rates increasing by 2.7 percentage points, while PTA and polyester filament operating rates are stable compared to the previous week [2][15] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has significantly decreased, down 4.4 percentage points to 6.7% year-on-year [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry is experiencing weak performance, with a slight year-on-year decline in grinding operating rates by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% [2][25] - Cement shipment rates have increased by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while asphalt operating rates have slightly risen by 0.8 percentage points to 4.3% [2][25] Group 3: Downstream Demand - New housing transactions have sharply declined, with average daily transaction area falling by 28.2% year-on-year [2][47] - Rail freight volume related to domestic demand has decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput and container throughput have also seen significant declines of 4% and 10.9% respectively [2][58] - The CCFI composite index has rebounded significantly, increasing by 3.3% month-on-month, with the West America route seeing a notable price increase of 9.6% [2][77] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and egg prices decreasing by 0.3% and 0.9% respectively, while vegetable and fruit prices have increased by 1.1% each [3][89] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.4% and metal prices down by 0.1% [3][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The overall impact of Sino - US trade frictions on the black sector has weakened. As the off - season approaches, the demand for building materials remains weak, but the inventory has no pressure due to the decline in production. The industrial materials demand shows signs of weakening from June to July, allowing for a decline in hot metal production, and the negative feedback path is difficult to disprove. Currently, the weakening demand and the accumulation of iron ore at ports suppress the upside, and prices are oscillating near support levels waiting for new drivers [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Overseas mines are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with expected seasonal increases in shipments until early July. The profitability rate of steel enterprises and hot metal production have slightly decreased but are expected to remain high in the short term. There is an expectation of a small - scale and phased accumulation of ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and significant price drops are unlikely, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety has increased, leading to a slight decline in coking coal production. However, the overall market supply is still abundant. On the demand side, the coke production level is loosening at a high level, and coke production tends to decline due to increasing inventory pressure on coke enterprises and shrinking coking profits. In terms of inventory, coke enterprises are not enthusiastic about replenishing raw materials during the price cut period, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. Overall, the supply contraction is limited, the downstream rigid demand is expected to decline in the off - season, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, coking coal prices may continue to be weak [3] Alloy - In the alloy sector, the cost of production has been slightly repaired during the wet season in Yunnan and due to electricity price discounts in Guangxi, leading to a slight increase in supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan. The supply of non - standard warehouse goods is tight, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. On the demand side, as the off - season for the black market arrives, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong intention to bargain. The steel procurement by Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon - manganese in June was 11,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to May. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon - manganese is becoming more balanced, and there is an expectation of a decline in manganese ore prices. However, due to cost inversion, manufacturers are less willing to sell. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate. The supply of ferrosilicon has slightly increased, and as the downstream steel consumption enters the off - season, the downstream has a strong intention to reduce inventory. The market sentiment remains cautious, and costs may still be a drag. The future focus is on steel procurement and production [3] Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the demand is declining in the off - season, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. The supply pressure remains as there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory has significantly increased, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. There are rumors affecting the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. The coal price is also expected to decline, and the sentiment fluctuates. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei spot has led to a decline in the futures market. In the short term, a weak - oscillation view is maintained. For soda ash, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and after the maintenance period ends, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [5] Specific Products - **Steel**: The static fundamentals are good, but the demand expectation is weak. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the macro - fluctuations have converged. This week, the demand for the five major steel products has weakened, especially for rebar. The hot metal production has peaked, and steel production has significantly declined. Although both supply and demand have weakened this week, the inventory is still decreasing. The main factors suppressing the futures price are the decline in raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [6] - **Iron Ore**: The port trading volume has increased, and the spot market prices have declined slightly. Overseas mines are increasing shipments seasonally, and it is expected to remain high until early July. The profitability rate of steel enterprises and hot metal production have slightly decreased but are expected to remain high in the short term. There is an expectation of a small - scale and phased accumulation of ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and significant price drops are unlikely, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [2][6] - **Scrap Steel**: As the off - season for building materials deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined. The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the futures price of finished products is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the resources are relatively tight, supporting the price. The demand has also decreased as the profit of electric furnaces at off - peak hours is negative, and the hot metal production of blast furnaces has slightly declined. The inventory in steel mills is still decreasing, but the absolute level is at a high level in the same period. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [6] - **Coke**: After three rounds of price cuts, there is an expectation of further price cuts due to the off - season demand for steel and pessimistic market sentiment. On the supply side, the production of some coke enterprises has slightly declined, but the overall production remains stable, and the de - stocking pressure is still high. On the demand side, the hot metal production is declining, and there is an expectation of further decline. The supply reduction is limited, and the demand support is weakening, so the coke price still has room to decline [6][7] - **Coking Coal**: The market trading atmosphere is poor, and there are still online auction failures. Recently, the number of shut - down coal mines has increased, leading to a slight decline in production, but the overall supply is still abundant. The coke production is loosening at a high level, and the inventory pressure on coke enterprises is increasing, leading to a decline in demand for coking coal. The upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years. In the short term, the coking coal price may continue to be weak due to the high - inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [3][8] - **Glass**: The demand is declining in the off - season, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. The supply pressure remains as there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory has increased slightly, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures market is oscillating. In the short term, a weak - oscillation view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the price - cut range of Hubei manufacturers [5][8] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the maintenance period ends, the supply pressure remains. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The sentiment affects the futures market, but the long - term oversupply situation cannot be changed. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [5][9] - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost of production has been slightly repaired in Yunnan and Guangxi. The supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan has slightly increased. The supply of non - standard warehouse goods is tight, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The black market is in the off - season, and the downstream is cautious and has a strong intention to bargain. The steel procurement by Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon manganese in June has increased. The supply - demand of silicon manganese is becoming more balanced, and there is an expectation of a decline in manganese ore prices. However, due to cost inversion, manufacturers are less willing to sell. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [3][11] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost of production in various regions has little fluctuation, and the overall supply level is still low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The steel procurement has increased, but the downstream construction progress is average due to the college entrance examination and rainy season. The terminal steel consumption is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream has a strong intention to reduce inventory. The procurement sentiment in the magnesium market has recovered, and the price has stabilized and increased. The supply of silicon iron has slightly increased, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and the cost may still be a drag. It is expected that the futures market will oscillate in the short term [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of futures and derivatives in enhancing risk management for real enterprises, particularly in the context of the construction materials industry [1][4] - The training organized by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) provided comprehensive learning opportunities for the business team of Kaisheng Resources, covering fundamental principles, hedging strategies, and practical applications of risk management [1][2] - Kaisheng Resources, a subsidiary of China National Building Material Group, has expanded its procurement categories from soda ash to include quartz sand, natural gas, tin ingots, and precious metals, indicating a strategic shift towards utilizing futures for risk management [1][3] Group 2 - The training session was well-received by participants, who found the content practical and beneficial for understanding futures and derivatives, thus enhancing their risk management capabilities [3][5] - Hebei Zhengda Glass Co., as a case study, demonstrated the effectiveness of futures in risk management, utilizing strategies such as spot-futures combinations and cross-period arbitrage to optimize profits and expand their customer base [2][3] - The ZCE aims to provide customized solutions for state-owned enterprises, focusing on improving service quality and addressing challenges in participating in the futures market [4][5]