1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to potential changes in Indonesian nickel ore policies [3]. - The stainless - steel market has a situation where cost support and weak demand are in a game. The stainless - steel main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term, and focus should be on the price trend of nickel iron, spot trading volume, and macro - sentiment changes [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 140,330 yuan/ton and closed at 140,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,070,694 (-206,996) lots, and the open interest was 109,975 (-9,510) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, wide - range fluctuation, and a slight decline at the end", with sharp intraday fluctuations. The V - shaped rebound of the US dollar index and the correction of the US stock market suppressed the prices of LME nickel and Shanghai nickel [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has a strong price - holding atmosphere. In the Philippines, mine tender prices have continuously risen. A domestic southern factory recently purchased 1.3% grade nickel ore at a CIF price of 42 US dollars. The new round of 1.3% nickel ore tender of the main mine Benguet was concluded at an FOB price of 38 US dollars, showing a significant increase. In Indonesia, the market trading was dull, and the market is waiting for the official announcement of the HPM benchmark price on the 15th. It is expected that the benchmark price in the second half of the month will increase by about 3 - 4 US dollars compared with the first half [2]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 150,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 40,272 (836) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,658 (510) tons [2]. Strategy - The overall strategy for nickel is to mainly conduct range operations. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,850 yuan/ton and closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 214,016 (-42,112) lots, and the open interest was 134,879 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, rising high, and narrow - range strong fluctuation", supported by the rising price of nickel iron at the cost end and the firm spot price. It was more resistant to decline than Shanghai nickel and finally closed slightly higher, continuing the range - bound pattern [3]. - **Spot**: After the recent increase in spot prices, the upward momentum of the futures market is insufficient, market caution has increased, and trading has remained light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,800 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 40 to 240 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 982.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term [4].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Guangzhou International Stainless Steel Exhibition and Stainless Steel Processing Equipment Exhibition will take place from May 16 to 18, showcasing the entire stainless steel industry chain and providing a platform for global industry collaboration [1][10]. Group 1: Exhibition Overview - The exhibition will cover an area of 30,000 square meters, featuring four major segments: raw materials, processing equipment, surface treatment technology, and product applications, offering a comprehensive viewing experience for attendees [3]. - Numerous well-known companies are participating, creating a strong lineup of exhibitors [3]. Group 2: Product Showcase - A wide variety of stainless steel materials will be displayed, including ferritic, martensitic, and austenitic stainless steels, as well as titanium and nickel alloys in forms such as coils, strips, plates, bars, and wires [7]. - Products such as stainless steel pipes, fittings, water pipes, flanges, valves, and pumps are widely used across multiple industries including automotive, rail transportation, pharmaceuticals, food, chemicals, light industry, electronics, hotel supplies, elevators, construction, and decoration [7]. - High-value-added products like colored stainless steel plates, mirror-finished stainless steel plates, brushed stainless steel plates, and frosted stainless steel plates will attract significant attention due to their unique appearance and excellent performance [7]. Group 3: Processing Equipment - Advanced processing equipment such as laser cutting machines, CNC punching machines, bending machines, welding equipment, and polishing equipment will be prominently featured [7]. - Various models of copper and aluminum engraving machines, stainless steel engraving machines, iron product engraving machines, fiber laser cutting machines, and UV printers will showcase innovative designs and high performance, precision, and stability [7]. Group 4: Production Technology and Equipment - The exhibition will highlight advanced production technologies and equipment for stainless steel smelting, casting, rolling, drawing, pickling, surface treatment, and leveling [8]. - Energy-saving and environmentally friendly equipment, along with green manufacturing processes, will demonstrate the industry's trend towards intelligent and sustainable development [8]. - Companies will showcase advanced waste gas treatment technologies and wastewater reuse techniques that effectively reduce pollution emissions during production [8]. Group 5: Industry Significance - The exhibition is positioned as an annual event for the stainless steel industry, providing a platform for companies to showcase and exchange ideas, while also indicating future development directions for the industry [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term nickel prices face multiple pressures such as high inventory, weak demand, and the ebb of macro - sentiment, and may continue to decline in a volatile manner. However, attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's nickel quota adjustment policy. If the policy is tightened more than expected, it may support prices. - Short - term stainless steel may maintain a weak and volatile trend, mainly affected by high inventory, weak demand, and cost - side fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy and the production and stocking rhythm of steel mills [1][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 145,000 yuan/ton and closed at 138,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.21% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 1,277,690 (+194,488) lots, and the open interest was 119,485 (-4,663) lots. The main contract showed a "high - opening, low - running + volatile downward" trend, driven by the ebb of macro - sentiment, high inventory on the supply side, weak demand, and the fading of geopolitical risk premium [1]. Nickel Ore - Mysteel reported that there were transactions in the nickel ore market recently. The CIF price of domestic 1.3% nickel ore was 42 US dollars. The overall nickel ore resources in the market were limited, and the nickel ore price was running strongly. Philippine mines were eager to sell at higher prices. The downstream nickel - iron price reached 1,000 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom) and above. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) was expected to rise by 2.8 - 4.9 US dollars/wet ton. The current mainstream premium was +25, and the premium range was mostly between +25 - 26. Factories may push down the premium due to cost pressure [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 148,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were slowly falling. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed - 100 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed 0 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 39,436 (-234) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,148 (-414) tons [2]. Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly operate within a range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,890 yuan/ton and closed at 13,790 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 256,128 (-551) lots, and the open interest was 130,200 (-4,171) lots. The contract opened higher due to the overnight rise of LME nickel but was dragged down by the rapid decline of Shanghai nickel, and the price fluctuated downward with weakening spot trading. In the afternoon, the continuous decline of Shanghai nickel triggered selling pressure, and the price fell below 13,800 yuan/ton, reaching a minimum of 13,705 yuan/ton and finally closing at 13,790 yuan/ton [3]. Spot - In the morning, the spot price rose slightly due to the increase in futures prices, but the market was afraid of high prices, and the inquiry and trading were poor. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,750 (-25) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 175 - 375 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron changed 8.50 yuan/nickel point to 980.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - The medium - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift of the bottom center. Short - term price strength is due to the risk of structural imbalance in global inventories and supply concerns from the Venezuela event. However, real - end demand is weak at high prices [2]. Zinc - In the context of geopolitical tensions, the non - ferrous metal sector moves upward in resonance. The zinc price is supported by tight ore supply but may face pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with support around 23800 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, with the core contradiction between policy expectations and weak fundamentals. The aluminum price is driven by macro and policy expectations but faces pressure from supply growth and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to be high - level and widely volatile [7]. Tin - The supply of tin may increase with the potential resumption of mines in Myanmar, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price is volatile, and it is recommended to hold previously bought call options [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to be low - level and volatile, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices are falling. The market will continue to accumulate inventory in January. The price may be supported at 48000 - 50000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market fluctuates at a high level. Cost is the main driving factor, but the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [14]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate futures are rising. The supply side has a slight increase expectation, and downstream demand has some resilience. The market sentiment is strong, but short - term liquidity and regulatory risks should be noted [16]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a wide - range shock. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market. Short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile [18]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a narrow - range shock. It is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand in the off - season. Short - term price is expected to adjust in a shock pattern [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 102510 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous value. The refined - scrap spread is 5042 yuan/ton, down 7.96% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month. Global visible inventories are at a high level, but 50% are in the US and difficult to flow to non - US regions [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24330 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The refined zinc output in December was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic zinc mine production has declined for two consecutive months, and the zinc ore TC is at a low level. The downstream start - up rate and orders are weak [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24300 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, and the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons. The inventory is accumulating [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 380200 yuan/ton, up 3.16%. The import volume of tin ore in November increased significantly month - on - month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may accelerate, and demand shows regional differences [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is at 8835 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be weak. The production may decrease by 1 - 2 million tons, and demand may decline by about 1 million tons [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is below 50000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the downstream start - up rate is expected to decline, and the market will continue to accumulate inventory [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM ADC12 is 23950 yuan/ton. The cost is the main driving factor, but the supply and demand are weak [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in December was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [14]. Lithium - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159500 yuan/ton, up 4.93%. The supply side has a slight increase, and downstream demand has some resilience [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate was 99200 tons, and the demand was 130118 tons. The inventory is changing [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 145200 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 30.08% [18]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel is stable. The price is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50% month - on - month, and the social inventory is decreasing [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The nickel and stainless - steel sectors in the non - ferrous metals industry are affected by multiple factors, with prices showing different trends. The nickel price is expected to oscillate sharply between 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 14,500 yuan/ton [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 140,000 yuan/ton and closed at 144,200 yuan/ton, up 5.65% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,083,202 (-38,224) lots, and the open interest was 124,148 (+3,553) lots. The price increase was driven by supply contraction expectations, macro - easing, and geopolitical risk premiums, along with the overall rise of non - ferrous and precious metals sectors [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with limited resources. Affected by macro factors, the price was strong. Philippine mines were eager to sell at higher prices. In Indonesia, the February 2026 domestic trade base price was expected to rise by 2.8 - 4.9 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium was +25, with a range of +25 - 26. Factories might push down the premium due to cost pressure [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 150,600 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, with strong reluctance to sell low - priced resources. The spot premiums of refined nickel were stable or rising. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 39,670 (+814) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 284,562 (-228) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Due to the game between supply contraction expectations and the reality of the off - peak demand season, combined with short - term disturbances from macro sentiment and capital behavior, the price is expected to oscillate sharply between 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on range operations and be cautious when chasing high prices. The strategy for single - side trading is range - based, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,870 yuan/ton and closed at 13,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 256,679 (-44,151) lots, and the open interest was 128,736 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the rise of LME nickel, the night trading session opened high and moved high, and the daily trading session was suppressed by weak demand, with the price gradually falling and oscillating between 13,800 - 13,880 yuan/ton in the afternoon [3]. - **Spot**: The futures price increase drove the spot price up, but downstream buyers were reluctant to buy at high prices, resulting in poor inquiry and trading. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,900 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,775 (+50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 115 - 315 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 10.00 yuan/nickel point to 972.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - The uncertainty of Indonesian policies has a significant impact on the cost of stainless steel, which will be the main short - term price trend logic. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 14,500 yuan/ton. However, the dismal spot trading may suppress price rebounds. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, with supply - side capital expenditure constraints supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom. Short - term prices are likely to stay strong due to the structural imbalance of global inventories and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. Focus on changes in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99000 - 100000 support level [1]. - Zinc: The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, but the import window for zinc ore is opening, limiting the downside space of TC. The supply pressure of refined zinc is relieved, and demand is suppressed. Overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and pressure from the expected supply of imported ore and weak demand feedback. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 23300 - 23400 support level [4]. - Nickel: The nickel market has seen significant price fluctuations. The unclear result of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market sentiment. High nickel prices have restricted downstream transactions, and the supply and demand situation is complex. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a wide range, with the main contract running in the 132000 - 142000 range [6]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is mainly driven by nickel raw materials. The unclear nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market expectations. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand in the off - season is weak. The cost support from the ore end and nickel - iron is strengthened. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the 13400 - 14200 range [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant increase in the price center last week. The supply - side shock expectation is strengthened, and demand is expected to be optimistic. The inventory situation has changed, with upstream inventory increasing and downstream inventory decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, with a focus on the 150000 breakthrough and liquidity risks [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease by 1 - 20,000 tons, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Exports may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton range [11]. - Polysilicon: In January, the polysilicon market is in a weak - demand situation, with high inventory and price pressure. There is a need for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. Pay attention to the impact of antitrust news, the possibility of production cuts, and the redistribution of industrial chain profits. The 50000 yuan/ton level may provide support, and trading is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Tin: The short - term price of tin is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The supply side may be affected by the situation in Congo (Kinshasa), and demand shows regional differences. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and operations should be cautious [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market has been oscillating widely. The supply is rigid, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton range. A rebound depends on capacity - control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has risen strongly, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices, and inventory starting to accumulate. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at a high level, with the main contract in the 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton range [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum - alloy market has shown a strong trend, mainly driven by cost factors. However, the supply and demand are both weak, with supply affected by raw - material shortages and demand being suppressed by high prices. Inventory has been gradually decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract in the 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 100275 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.77%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased to 41.94 dollars/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24170 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%. The import profit and loss was - 1887 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased to 141900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.80%. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 196 dollars/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained at 13800 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 increased to - 85 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 140000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.08%. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 was - 580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 9650 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased to 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 55000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.90%. The main contract price dropped to 51300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased to 349750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.49%. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to 370 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 24030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.12%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum was 176.8 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 23700 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to - 105 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a 6.80% increase month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 27.11 million tons, a 3.90% decrease [1]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a 7.24% decrease month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 1.82 million tons, a 3.22% decrease [4]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month. The import volume in November increased by 30.08% [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, a 4.04% increase month - on - month. The demand decreased by 2.50% [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the expected production of industrial silicon may decrease to 38 - 39 million tons. The demand is expected to decline by about 1 million tons [11]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, a 0.79% increase month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 2041.76% [12]. - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81% month - on - month. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly [13]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a 1.08% increase month - on - month. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [15]. Inventory Data - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 14.61% week - on - week to 27.38 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 1.49% day - on - day to 13.90 million tons [1]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 11.69% week - on - week to 11.85 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.51% day - on - day to 10.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% week - on - week to 46650 tons. LME inventory increased by

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the nickel market is experiencing upward momentum due to a combination of macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical risks, and strong demand from the new energy sector [2][3] - Nickel prices have shown significant increases, with LME nickel closing at $17,700, up $635 per ton, a rise of 3.72%, while domestic SHFE nickel futures also saw a substantial increase [1] - The supply side constraints are a fundamental support for prices, with major nickel-producing countries implementing tighter annual quota policies, leading to a slowdown in supply growth [3] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in key resource areas, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has heightened concerns about the stability of the global nickel supply chain, contributing to price increases despite no direct impact on production [2][3] - Demand for nickel is being driven by the rapid growth in new energy applications, particularly high-nickel ternary batteries, which are benefiting from increased electric vehicle penetration and technological advancements [3] - The industry structure is becoming more concentrated, with leading companies enhancing their advantages through resource control and integrated layouts, while smaller capacities are being phased out, optimizing supply structure and enhancing pricing power [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The nickel price showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week, but still remained in an upward trend overall. Short - term spot supply was tight. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose slightly, and mines were bullish. Nickel iron prices increased significantly, and the cost line went up. Stainless steel inventory declined. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was strong. Short - sellers were advised to wait and see, while long - sellers could hold a small amount of positions. The main stainless steel contract was expected to run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait for the moment [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: The nickel price rose and then fell this week, still in an upward trend. Short - term spot was in short supply. Nickel ore prices rose slightly, mines were bullish, nickel iron prices increased sharply, cost line rose, stainless steel inventory decreased, refined nickel inventory was high, and the new energy vehicle sector had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Some nickel ore prices rose slightly, battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 20.40% and 5.69% respectively, low - nickel iron price remained unchanged, high - nickel iron price rose by 4.86%, electrolytic nickel prices increased, and the 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63% [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Situation**: Some nickel ore prices rose 1 cent/wet ton, and freight decreased 1 cent/wet ton. On January 8, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.1977 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.92%. In November 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 28.69% month - on - month and increased by 2.92% year - on - year. Mines were firm on prices [18]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Situation**: The nickel price rose and then fell with large fluctuations and average trading volume. Spot supply was tight. Globally, the nickel market was expected to remain oversupplied. In December 2025, China's refined nickel production increased by 2.35% month - on - month and decreased by 16.39% year - on - year. In November 2025, imports increased by 30.07% month - on - month and 40.86% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 20.06% month - on - month and increased by 0.80% year - on - year. LME and SHFE inventories increased [26][27][39]. - **Nickel Iron Market Situation**: Low - nickel iron price remained stable, and high - nickel iron price rose. In December 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. In November 2025, imports decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and increased by 1.4% year - on - year. The December inventory was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 nickel tons [46][48][54]. - **Stainless Steel Market Situation**: The 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63%. In December, stainless steel production was 3.2605 million tons. Imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. On January 9, the national inventory was 948,300 tons, a decrease of 2.91 million tons [59][65][72]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Situation**: From January to November, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% year - on - year respectively. In November, production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively. In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries was 193GWh, and the total production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries increased by 12.4% month - on - month and 64.6% year - on - year [77][80]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to rise significantly and deviated from the moving average. There was some competition among long - sellers at high positions. MACD and other indicators were in an upward trend. The price should be followed, but risks should also be noted. A small number of long positions could be held, and short - sellers should wait and see [83]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary - **Fundamental View**: The impact of the nickel ore link on the nickel price was neutral to strong, with stable prices and bullish mines; the nickel iron link was also neutral to strong, with rising prices and an upward - moving cost line; the refined nickel link was neutral, with short - term supply shortages and long - term oversupply; the stainless steel link was neutral, with falling inventory and rising costs; the new energy link was neutral, with good production data but the continued replacement of ternary batteries [86]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [88][89].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Indonesia's production cut plan: Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production by 34%, leading to expectations of supply tightening and stimulating a rebound and limit - up in futures prices [3] - Recovery in stainless steel demand: The strong performance of stainless steel mill prices, along with the recovery of terminal demand, supports the upward space for nickel prices despite high inventory costs [3] Bearish Factors - Strong US dollar: The continuous strengthening of the US dollar index reduces the pricing competitiveness of commodities and suppresses the price performance of non - ferrous metals [3] - High inventory: Global nickel inventories continue to accumulate, especially the high level of visible inventories, weakening market concerns about supply - demand tightness [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Although Indonesia's policy stimulus boosts expectations, the improvement in fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the actual implementation of policies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 139,090 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 710 yuan and a weekly decline of 0.51%. Other contracts like Shanghai nickel continuous one, two, and three have different price changes and percentage increases. LME nickel 3M is at 17,700 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 410 dollars and a 3.60% increase [4] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The main contract of stainless steel is at 13,860 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 465 yuan and a 3% increase. Other contracts also show price increases. The trading volume and open interest have significant increases [5] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel have all decreased by 7,150 yuan/ton, with percentage declines ranging from 4.67% to 4.96% [5] - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 61,046 tons, an increase of 2,126 tons; LME nickel inventory is 284,790 tons, an increase of 8,490 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 854,600 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [7] Supply - Side Information - **Primary Nickel Supply**: Information on China's refined nickel monthly production, primary nickel monthly total supply including imports shows seasonal trends [13] - **Upstream Nickel Ore**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory, and the prices of different types of nickel pig iron (such as 8 - 12% and Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron) are presented with historical data [16][18] - **Nickel Iron Production**: China and Indonesia's nickel iron monthly production shows seasonal patterns [19][20] Downstream Information - **Nickel Sulfate**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel, production profit margins, monthly production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors are all presented with historical data [22][24][25] - **Stainless Steel**: The profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production, and inventory show seasonal trends [28][30][31]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The US non-farm employment population increased by 50,000 in December 2025, below the expected 60,000 and the previous value of 64,000 [18] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, compared to the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [18] - The Federal Reserve report indicates that consumers expect prices to rise by 3.4% over the next year, up from 3.2% in November [18] Group 2: Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply sentiment, supported by the ongoing strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile [19] - January electrolytic copper production is estimated at 1.1636 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% but a year-on-year increase of 14.7% due to tight copper concentrate supply [19] - In November, net imports of refined copper decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [19] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of January 9, global visible copper inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 961,000 tons, with LME inventory decreasing by 8,450 tons to 138,975 tons [19] - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 34,900 tons week-on-week to 273,800 tons, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [19] - The copper price has risen again, but downstream enterprises are purchasing cautiously, focusing on essential needs [19] Group 4: Policy Impact on Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% [20] - The market anticipates a rush to export in the first quarter, which may temporarily boost demand for certain commodities, making it difficult for prices to sustain a downward trend [20] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a volatile upward trend before the Spring Festival, with a focus on feedback regarding the new policy [20]