Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - Supply remains tight with low processing fees and uncertain future supply from Myanmar. Demand is weak, especially in traditional sectors, despite some support from AI and photovoltaic industries. Short - term macro - economic factors may cause price fluctuations. Consider buying on dips due to strong supply - side factors. If Myanmar's supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, prices may remain high and volatile [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Cost support is evident, but raw material supply is tight. Supply is restricted by raw material availability and policy uncertainty, while demand is gradually recovering. Inventory is starting to decline, but the absolute level is still high. ADC12 prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [3]. Alumina - The market is in an oversupply situation. Spot prices are expected to remain under pressure, and the futures main contract may fluctuate between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include cost - profit changes and policies in resource - rich countries [4]. Aluminum - Macro - economic factors are favorable, providing support for aluminum prices. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance, with supply shortages in some areas and a mixed demand situation. High prices are suppressing downstream procurement. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [4]. Nickel - Macro - economic uncertainties exist. The industry is facing pressure, with nickel - iron prices under stress and shrinking profits. Inventory is increasing, and stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [5]. Stainless Steel - Macro - economic risks are increasing, and raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. However, downstream demand during the peak season has not met expectations, and inventory is putting pressure on prices. The short - term market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market is strong, driven by news and strong downstream demand. Production and demand are both increasing, and the industry is in a de - stocking phase. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract price center around 74000 - 76000 yuan/ton [10]. Copper - High copper prices are suppressing demand. Macro - economic factors such as the approaching Sino - US tariff deadline and US employment data may affect prices. Copper supply shortages are a long - term concern, which will support copper prices. The main contract is expected to find support between 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.18% to 281200 yuan/ton, and LME 0 - 3 decreased by 15.05% to - 130.01 dollars/ton [2]. - **Internal - External Ratios and Import Profits/Losses**: Import losses decreased by 8.72% to - 13986.17 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.92 [2]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 5.71% to - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: August tin ore imports decreased by 0.11%, and September SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 8.55% to 5879 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.32% to 7786 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: September recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy production rate increased by 7.73% to 57.54% [3]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 2.84% to 5.48 tons [3]. Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.14% to 20950 yuan/ton, and alumina prices in some regions decreased [4]. - **Ratios and Profits/Losses**: Import losses decreased by 107.2 yuan/ton to - 2253 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.59 [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: September alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.39% to 62.70 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.73% [4]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.12% to 122150 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 increased by 2.60% to - 206 dollars/ton [5]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Costs**: The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from integrated MHP decreased by 0.62% to 116448 yuan/ton [5]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.25% to 28550 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.75% to 29575 tons [5]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.78% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 8.82% to 315 yuan/ton [7]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.48% to 938 yuan/nickel point [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 tons, and stainless steel imports increased by 60.48% to 11.72 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.56% to 50.18 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% to 8.32 tons [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 792.86% to - 1940 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 decreased by 1060 yuan/ton to - 1120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: September lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [10]. - **Inventory**: September lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 0.38% to 64539 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 32930 tons [10]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.07% to 85175 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Fundamental Data**: September electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 tons, and electrolytic copper imports decreased by 10.99% to 26.43 tons [12][14]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 6.73% to 17.75 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 15.42% to 10.97 tons [12][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, although stainless - steel prices are already at a low level, inventory accumulation has begun, material cost support has weakened, and demand falls short of expectations, so it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation state [5]. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 16, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 120,950 yuan/ton and closed at 121,270 yuan/ton, a 0.21% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 67,146 (-16,615) lots, and the open interest was 66,228 (-2,453) lots. The contract slightly opened lower, the price bottomed out and then rebounded slightly, and the overall non - ferrous metal sector had a small rebound under the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained on the sidelines, and prices were stable. Sea freight decreased due to reduced ship demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants' profits were affected, and they were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories started "winter storage" of raw materials. The nickel ore market in Indonesia continued to have a loose supply pattern, and the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars, with the current mainstream premium at +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot prices were basically stable, and the spot premium of each brand did not fluctuate. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 26,474 (-84) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,344 (+3,588) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - There are no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,615 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,870 (+12,654) lots, and the open interest was 201,245 (-4,171) lots. The contract slightly opened lower at night, was driven by Shanghai nickel and the black sector to further bottom out, and then followed the rebound of Shanghai nickel to rise slightly at the close [3]. - **Spot**: Overall spot trading was still light, and quotes continued to decline. However, after the futures market bottomed out and rebounded in the afternoon, market activity and prices rebounded slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,950 (-50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,950 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 445 to 745 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - There are no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price fluctuations, with specific increases in cold-rolled prices in Wuxi and Foshan, indicating a mixed sentiment among traders [1][3] - Nickel ore prices remain strong, particularly from the Philippines, while domestic nickel iron prices are under pressure due to increasing losses in domestic and Indonesian steel mills [3] - Overall, the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase, but demand remains weak, leading to inventory pressures [2][3] Pricing and Market Trends - As of October 16, Wuxi Hongwang's 304 cold-rolled price is 13,000 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton day-on-day, while Foshan Hongwang's price is stable at 12,900 CNY/ton [1] - The base price has increased by 45 CNY/ton to 555 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel ore from the Philippines is auctioned at FOB 43.5, with domestic nickel iron prices stabilizing around 945-950 CNY/nickel [1][3] Supply and Production - In September, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.4513 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 135,700 tons, or 4.09% [1] - October's production is projected at 3.488 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.06% [1] - The 300 series production in October is expected to be 1.8217 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 13, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 504,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 32,700 tons [2] - Stainless steel futures inventory decreased by 2,339 tons to 85,166 tons [2] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The stainless steel market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, with traders showing limited willingness to adjust prices despite lower spot prices compared to the latest agent prices [3] - Macro risks are increasing, with uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - The demand from traditional downstream sectors remains weak, and new emerging sectors are also showing a decline in growth expectations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply disruptions, low processing fees, and high prices suppressing downstream demand. The overall view is to buy on dips cautiously [2][7][8]. - The alumina market has a static surplus, and prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of enterprises [11][15][16]. - The aluminum market's mid - term upward trend remains unchanged. After the price correction, downstream stocking drives inventory reduction, and consumption shows resilience [18][19][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is less affected by the US tariff policy. The shortage of scrap aluminum and seasonal demand support prices, and the short - term view is to buy on dips [26][28][29]. - The zinc market has an oversupply situation. The domestic market is under pressure, while the overseas market is strong. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [31][34][36]. - The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with supply being weaker. There is a risk of price decline in the second half of the month, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [38][39][40]. - The nickel market is in a long - term oversupply situation. LME inventory is increasing, and prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is advisable [42][44][45]. - The stainless steel market has high inventory and low prices. The price is still under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [49][50][52]. - The tin market has tight supply at the mine end, slow demand recovery, and prices are expected to be volatile at high levels. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production [55][59][60]. - The industrial silicon market is under short - term price pressure, but there is a possibility of balance sheet repair in November. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [62][63][64]. - The polysilicon market may experience a short - term correction, but the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Buying on dips is recommended [69][70][71]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and short - term price strength. The view is to be bullish on the short - term trend [75][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,050 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced positions by 10,111 lots to 546,200 lots. Shanghai spot premiums stabilized, while Guangdong's inventory ended a 5 - day increase, and North China's procurement was weak [2]. - **Important Information**: Peru's copper production in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 242,740 tons. From January to August 2025, it was about 1.81 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year. As of October 16, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 177,500 tons compared to Monday. Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed concerns about the decline in copper processing and refining fees [3][4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroscopically, the US employment market is cooling, and Powell may support interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, supply disruptions at the copper mine end increase, and processing fees are expected to decline. Consumption is weak, but there may be an increase in demand after price corrections [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips cautiously. Hold long - term cross - market arbitrage positions, and start cross - period arbitrage after domestic inventory decline. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 9 yuan to 2,790 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [10]. - **Related Information**: On October 15, some aluminum plants made purchases. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 98.55 million tons in operation. Some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan were in a loss situation, and an enterprise in Shanxi reduced production due to ore shortages [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The static surplus of alumina is absorbed by downstream stocking, but the surplus trend remains. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and more production cuts may occur in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be weak. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,975 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Related Information**: China's September economic data showed some improvements. The US tariff policy on China was uncertain, and on October 15, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 12,000 tons [18]. - **Trading Logic**: The impact of the US tariff policy on aluminum prices is expected to be less severe than in April. After the price correction, downstream stocking drives inventory reduction, and the mid - term upward trend remains unchanged [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish on dips in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [22]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract increased by 90 yuan to 20,490 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were stable [26]. - **Related Information**: The US tariff policy was uncertain, and on October 15, the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased slightly, while the warehouse receipts decreased [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The impact of the US tariff policy on aluminum alloy prices is limited. The shortage of scrap aluminum and seasonal demand support prices [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Zinc 2512 contract decreased by 0.32% to 21,965 yuan/ton. The spot market had low trading volume, and downstream purchasing was weak [31][33]. - **Related Information**: As of October 16, the SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 162,700 tons. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted an oversupply of zinc in 2025 and 2026 [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: At the mine end, domestic production may decrease, and imported zinc concentrate is in a loss situation. At the smelting end, production is expected to increase. Consumption is expected to weaken. The domestic market is under pressure, while the overseas market is strong [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold short positions and add short positions on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Lead - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Lead 2512 contract increased by 0.26% to 17,130 yuan/ton. The spot market had average trading volume [38]. - **Related Information**: As of October 16, the SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory was 37,700 tons. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted an oversupply of lead in 2025 and 2026 [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: From September to mid - October, domestic lead production was low. After the National Day, inventory decreased. In the second half of October, supply may increase, and prices may decline [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to decline from high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 250 to 121,270 yuan/ton. Spot premiums showed an upward trend [42]. - **Related Information**: In August 2025, the global refined nickel supply was in surplus. The global nickel market is expected to be oversupplied until 2030. LME nickel inventory is increasing [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global nickel market is in a long - term oversupply situation. LME inventory increase indicates high export enthusiasm of domestic enterprises, and prices are under pressure [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [45][46][47]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Stainless Steel main contract SS2512 increased by 60 to 12,615 yuan/ton. Spot prices were weak and stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The EU's policies may increase the cost of stainless steel imports. The national stainless steel inventory decreased slightly [50][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are rising, but 300 - series cold - rolled inventory is increasing, and prices are under pressure. The current price is lower than the factory cost, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and production plans [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: On October 16, the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 281,350 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan/ton or 0.34%. The spot price decreased slightly [55]. - **Related Information**: Peru's tin production increased in August. In August 2025, the global refined tin supply was in short supply. Indonesia's tin production is expected to recover in 2026 [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US may cut interest rates. The supply at the tin mine end is tight, and the processing fee is low. Demand is recovering slowly. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be volatile at high levels. Wait and see for options [60][61]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: On October 11, an environmental impact assessment of a silicon project was announced [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors of polysilicon production cuts are negative for industrial silicon demand. In the short term, there is a slight surplus, and prices are under pressure. In November, there may be production cuts, and the balance sheet may be repaired [63]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be weak in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64][65][66]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The rumor of the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform is false [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term rise was due to false rumors, and prices may correct. But capacity integration is progressing, and production is expected to decrease in November and December, with a possible slight inventory reduction [70]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips after a short - term correction. Hold a reverse arbitrage position for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Adjust the previous double - buying strategy [71][72][73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract increased by 1,880 to 75,080 yuan/ton. Spot prices were stable [75]. - **Important Information**: The government issued a plan for electric vehicle charging facilities. Hainan Mining shipped lithium concentrate [76]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production increased, inventory decreased, demand was strong, and prices were supported. Market funds returned, and volatility may increase [76][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish on the short - term trend. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2601 contract [79].

Core Points - Chaozhou will implement the "Enterprise Quiet Day" system starting November 1, aiming for full coverage within three years, which restricts enterprise inspections from the 1st to the 20th of each month [1] - The "Enterprise Quiet Day" system is part of a broader three-year action plan (2025-2027) to standardize administrative law enforcement related to enterprises [1] - The plan includes three core systems: "Enterprise Quiet Day," "Comprehensive Inspection Once," and "Code Display for Entry," which aim to regulate administrative law enforcement from the source [1] Summary by Category Administrative Law Enforcement - The "Enterprise Quiet Day" system applies to legally registered enterprises and includes five prohibitions to prevent misuse as an excuse for inaction [1] - A list of items for the "Comprehensive Inspection Once" system will be established by the end of the month, allowing for streamlined inspections [1] - The "Code Display for Entry" system will utilize the "Yue Law Enforcement" platform for digital monitoring of law enforcement personnel [1] Industry Impact - The "Enterprise Quiet Day" system does not apply to industrial enterprises classified as "scattered, chaotic, polluting, and hazardous" [1] - Chaozhou has initiated a three-year special rectification action targeting key industries such as printing and packaging, stainless steel, and clothing [1] Recent Progress - From January to August this year, the number of enterprise inspections by administrative law enforcement agencies in Chaozhou decreased by 37.27% year-on-year [2] - The amount of administrative penalties related to enterprises dropped by 47.09%, and the number of administrative review applications fell by 72.72% [2] - The number of new private enterprises increased by 25.47% year-on-year, indicating improved satisfaction among businesses [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, with high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut and relatively stable fundamentals lead to a weak oscillation trend for the nickel futures contract [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand, stainless - steel prices are also projected to stay in a low - level oscillation [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.08% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,761 (-26,323) lots, and the open interest was 68,681 (-4,426) lots. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut led to a weak oscillation trend under stable fundamentals [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. Sea freight declined due to reduced shipping demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, while some northern Chinese factories started "winter storage". The Indonesian nickel ore market had a continuous supply - surplus pattern, and the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market selling price was 123,400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was cold, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 26,558 (+1,531) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 246,756 (+3,498) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,560 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 113,216 (-37,540) lots, and the open interest was 193,490 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a weak - oscillation trend, and price decline was due to the game between cost support and weak demand [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained cautious, and spot trading was light with stable spot premiums. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 455 - 755 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The recommended single - side strategy for stainless steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 15.17% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 8.94% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 6.5% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell Shanghai Nickel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using NI main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month NI contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [2] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell stainless steel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using SS main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month SS contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [3] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuated during the day, with no significant changes in fundamentals recently. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts this year at the macro level, and there is a certain easing sentiment in Sino-US tariffs [3] - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia announced regulations for quota application in 2026. Enterprises need to resubmit new annual RKAB applications for 2026. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3] - In the new energy sector, it will enter the peak season, and the downstream procurement demand remains high. The current quotation has been rising for several consecutive weeks. The market circulation is tight, the inventory is low, and there are still inquiries. It may continue to be strong in the future [3] - The price of nickel iron lacks upward momentum recently, and the overall center of gravity has declined significantly. Tsingshan's latest order was concluded at 945, about 10 yuan/nickel point lower than the previous level. Under the pressure of stainless steel profits and weak demand, it may run weakly. The downward space of the downstream has expanded to some extent after the loss of support from nickel iron [3] - After the holiday, the spot trading of stainless steel remains calm, and the pessimistic sentiment of "peak season without peak" is strong. In terms of exports, the WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal, and the exemption of India's BIS certification until the end of the year has promoted positive sentiment in stainless steel exports [3][5] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Interpretations Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6] - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6] - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [6] - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax rate on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [6] - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year [6] Bearish Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The Sino-US tariff issue has resurfaced [6] - The center of gravity of nickel iron has moved down, and the bottom support has weakened [6] - Stainless steel shows "peak season without peak", and the demand recovery is less than expected [6] Group 6: Market Data Nickel - Shanghai Nickel Main Contract: Latest value 121,180 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan, 0% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 120,830 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan, -0.48% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 120,990 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 121,210 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - LME Nickel 3M: Latest value 15,104 US dollars/ton, down 76 US dollars, -0.53% change [6] - Trading Volume: 83,761 lots, down 26,323 lots, -23.91% change [6] - Open Interest: 68,681 lots, down 4,426 lots, -6.05% change [6] - Warehouse Receipts: 26,558 tons, up 1,531 tons, 6.12% change [6] - Basis of Main Contract: -460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan, -38.7% change [6] Stainless Steel - Stainless Steel Main Contract: Latest value 12,560 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, 0% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 12,540 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan, -0.75% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 12,565 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, -0.71% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 12,660 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, 0.04% change [7] - Trading Volume: 113,216 lots, down 37,540 lots, -24.90% change [7] - Open Interest: 193,490 lots, up 3,239 lots, 1.70% change [7] - Warehouse Receipts: 84,007 tons, down 490 tons, -0.58% change [7] - Basis of Main Contract: 805 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan, 12.59% change [7] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel: 43,694 tons, up 2,866 tons [8] - LME Nickel Inventory: 246,756 tons, up 3,498 tons [8] - Social Inventory of Stainless Steel: 905.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [8] - Nickel Pig Iron Inventory: 29,236 tons, up 584 tons [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - The nickel market has an oversupply situation, with high inventories. The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For trading strategies, a range - based operation is recommended for single - side trading, while no specific strategies are proposed for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1][3]. - The stainless steel market is facing inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand. The stainless steel price is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and no strategies are given for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 120,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.67% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,084 (- 38,918) lots, and the open interest was 73,107 (- 1,593) lots. The oversupply pattern persists, and concerns about the escalation of China - US tariff friction have intensified. The LME inventory continues to increase, suppressing the nickel price. The trading volume and open interest both decreased, indicating reduced market trading activity and capital participation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and the price remains stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF 44, with no transactions concluded. In the Philippines, the bidding result of the 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in Zambales has not been released. The downstream nickel - iron price has declined, squeezing the profit of iron plants, leading to cautious procurement of nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories have started stockpiling raw materials for winter. The supply in the Indonesian market remains loose, and the October (second phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to increase by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, with the current mainstream premium at +26 [1]. - **Spot**: The Shanghai market sales price of Jinchuan Group is 123,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The decline in refined nickel prices has increased downstream procurement enthusiasm, and the intraday trading volume is fair. The premiums of various brands are mainly stable. The Jinchuan nickel premium remains unchanged at 2,400 yuan/ton, the imported nickel premium increases by 25 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the nickel bean premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,027 (- 245) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 243,258 (+ 1,164) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Mainly use range - based operations [3]. - **Cross - period**: None [3]. - **Cross - variety**: None [3]. - **Spot - futures**: None [3]. - **Options**: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,565 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,756 (- 59,233) lots, and the open interest was 190,251 (- 4,171) lots. It shows a similar trend to Shanghai nickel, continuing the low - level oscillation pattern and reaching a low of 12,050 yuan/ton, close to the three - month low [3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism has intensified, and spot prices have decreased, but trading remains sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (- 150) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,000 (- 100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium ranges from 455 to 755 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Neutral [5]. - **Cross - period**: None [5]. - **Cross - variety**: None [5]. - **Spot - futures**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].