昨日河北某厂项目被调查，叠加阿联酋全球铝业（EGA）采矿许可证被取消，两大利多 消息的接连发布带动氧化铝全线上涨。本轮反弹是消息面与基本面的共同作用。我们对 两方面分别详细分析，首先是某大厂消息面扰动了市场情绪，二是近端基本面的供需改 善，库存去化。最后，就该厂新增产能是否清退，分别进行情景假设，最终得出观点： 我们认为，近端受检修及消息影响，盘面出现了反弹，在事件未明朗之前偏观望对待， 长期来看供需过剩格局未改。 昨日，河北某氧化铝厂的新闻扰动了品种市场，氧化铝主力合约在两个交易日内最高反 弹5.8%。该如何看待反弹？氧化铝格局就此转变了吗？ 图1：氧化铝2509合约走势图 以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者有色组 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 数据来源：紫金天风期货研究所 01 大厂消息面搅动了市场情绪 昨日，一则关于下游大厂的新闻报道影响了盘面，目前消息尚无定论，仍在等待结果。该厂 年内计划投产氧化铝共计480万吨，分成3条产线，第一条产线已出料。第二条产线原先预 计在近期投成， ...

文字早评 2025/05/06 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.23%，创指+0.83%，科创 50+0.85%，北证 50+2.96%，上证 50-0.47%，沪深 300-0.12%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.79%，中证 2000+1.29%，万得微盘+1.41%。两市合计成交 11693 亿，较上 一日+1472 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、商务部：美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来，对此，中方正在评估。节日期间离岸人民币大涨。 2、据新华社，"五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 6.3%。 3、美国 4 月非农就业人口增长 17.7 万人，大幅好于预期。 资金面：融资额-13.51 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+21.90bp 至 1.7600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.54bp 至 3.0966%，十年期国债利率+0.03bp 至 1.6279%，信用利差-1.57bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率+8.00bp 至 4.33%，中美利差-7.97bp 至-270bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.21，中证 500: ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with alumina futures experiencing a decline of approximately 3.03% [1] - As of April 30, the spot price of alumina in China was 2879 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.03% [1] - In Shandong, the spot transaction price for alumina was reported at 2875 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous transaction [1] Group 2 - The supply of alumina is under pressure due to a combination of maintenance and production recovery, with a slight increase in operational capacity, but it is still insufficient to meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum [2] - The market is expected to maintain a low valuation for alumina due to ongoing oversupply concerns and macroeconomic instability [2] - Companies are advised to monitor the operational rates of domestic alumina producers and fluctuations in imported ore prices [2]

文字早评 2025/04/21 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.11%，创指+0.27%，科创 50-0.81%，北证 50+1.97%，上证 50-0.08%，沪深 300+0.01%， 中证 500+0.07%，中证 1000-0.13%，中证 2000-0.20%，万得微盘-0.02%。两市合计成交 9147 亿，较上 一日-848 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、国常会：研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平 稳健康发展。 2、白宫将设工作组紧急处理对中国加征关税危机，特朗普称 1 个月内会与中国达成协议。 3、特朗普又喊话降息，白宫顾问承认在研究解雇鲍威尔。 资金面：融资额-87.08 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+2.60bp 至 1.6600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.10bp 至 3.0824%，十年期国债利率-0.27bp 至 1.6490%，信用利差+0.17bp 至 143bp；美国 10 年期利率+5.00bp 至 4.34%，中美利差-5.27bp 至-269bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.26，中证 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices continue to decline, and the industry is facing cost - profit pressure. However, with the reduction in operating capacity and potential demand recovery, the price may gradually enter a bottom - grinding stage [13][15] - The supply of bauxite is affected by policies and market factors, with domestic prices in a downward trend but limited downside space, and overseas supply facing uncertainties [2][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices are in a downward channel. Shanxi 58/5 bauxite is priced at 730 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. The short - term price is in a downward range but with limited downside space [2][12] - For imports, large bauxite enterprises are signing long - term contracts, with prices ranging from 88 - 95 dollars/dry ton. There is a stalemate between supply and demand, and the market rumor of Guinea's GIC mine shutdown is unconfirmed. Newly arrived ore is 665.4 million tons, including 549 million tons from Guinea and 71.5 million tons from Australia [2][12] Alumina - Last week, alumina spot prices continued to decline. The ALD northern comprehensive price is 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index is 2845.4 yuan/ton, down 139.6 yuan/ton. Imported alumina port prices are 2960 - 3040 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan/ton [3][13] - Many alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou are in a loss situation. The domestic alumina full - cost is 3100 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit is - 79 yuan/ton [13] - Supply - side: Alumina maintenance, production reduction, and active production cuts are concentrated, with the operating capacity decreasing significantly. The national alumina installed capacity is 10922 million tons, the operating capacity is 8615 million tons, down 490 million tons from last week, and the operating rate is 78.9% [13] Demand - Domestically, some electrolytic aluminum enterprises have resumed or increased production, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 5.5 million tons week - on - week to 4390.38 million tons. Overseas demand remains unchanged, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 2935.8 million tons, flat week - on - week [14] Inventory - As of April 10, the national alumina inventory is 344.3 million tons, up 5.3 million tons from last week. Alumina enterprise inventory is increasing, electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintain low - inventory, and port inventory is currently stable [14] Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 296049 tons, down 10532 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On April 11, 0.3 million tons of alumina were traded in the Henan market at an ex - factory price of 2910 yuan/ton [16] - In the short term, more inland enterprises are under maintenance. It is expected that in the next 50 days, the alumina operating capacity will be maintained between 8800 - 9000 million tons, and the balance coefficient will return to around 2, gradually supporting the price [16] - Some large industrial chain group - supported alumina enterprises are under maintenance, with an estimated impact on production capacity of 150 million tons and an estimated output reduction of 7 million tons [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain Raw Materials and Cost Side - The data includes domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, and prices of domestic caustic soda and steam coal [17][20][27] Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - It shows domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The weekly supply - demand balance data of alumina shows that the supply - demand gap has changed significantly recently [36][43][44] Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The data covers electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts and positions [46][49][54]

金价延续跌势，海外市场恐慌情绪有所缓解，但贸易战短期并 没有明显的缓和迹象，其他国家预期陆续和美国进行谈判，但 中国推出反制措施后，特朗普再度施压。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特：预计在 4 月 9 日关税上调之前不会达成任何协议 综 特朗普最新表态没有考虑暂停加征关税，短期市场波动加剧， 市场风险偏好短期回升，流动性冲击暂时结束。 日度报告——综合晨报 新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-08 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储理事库格勒：新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" 巴西大豆收获完成 87% 中美贸易战升级为当前市场主要矛盾，CBOT 大豆下跌，昨日巴 西 CNF 升贴水上涨但涨幅有限，昨日我国进口巴西豆成本甚至 较清明小长假前略降、豆粕期价涨幅有限。 有色金属（氧化铝） 西澳地区为主的海外氧化铝成交价格继续回落 氧化铝企业因担心长单客户损失、对成本下降的预期以及储备 现金流和产业链优势等因素，继续维持生产。 能源化工（原油） 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 商务部召开美资企业圆桌会 报 受关税冲击影响，A 股市场暴跌，主要指数跌幅高达 8%以上。 短期内 ...