Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - The Middle East situation has become tense due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a sharp increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals, energy, and other commodities [1]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by demand changes and inventory levels [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday night, international gold prices denominated in London gold rose 1.8% to $5277 per ounce, and international silver prices denominated in London silver rose 6.28% to $93.82 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict in the Middle East has increased risk - aversion sentiment. The US PPI has increased more than expected, the US Treasury bond prices have risen, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has fallen below 4.0%. There are changes in the inventory of gold and silver in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the domestic market will open higher today. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated and trended slightly stronger yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to an increase in gold and oil prices and a stronger US dollar. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the visible global inventory has increased rapidly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Temporarily wait and see [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.02% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 23,745 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum price will maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overseas capacity changes, and the inventory reduction rhythm after domestic downstream resumption of work [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.70% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2744 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants have both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating capacity continues to decline. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the spot circulation of alumina is tight, and the price is stable with a slight increase. In the future, the upward driving force of the alumina price still requires substantial production cuts on the supply side or the implementation of anti - involution policies [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8395 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.72% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased by 2 last week. Both weekly warehouse receipts and social inventories increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and the output of the silicone industry have increased [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8600. If the duration of large - factory production cuts is limited, short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 176,040 yuan per ton, an increase of 2380 yuan, with a closing price increase of 1.37% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate has decreased. The production and demand in March are expected to increase compared with January. The inventory is expected to be reduced in Q1 [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The impact of the US - Iran conflict on lithium is expected to be small. The short - term price increase is mainly restricted by demand concerns, while the low inventory and increased inventory reduction support the price to oscillate at a high level [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 46495 yuan per ton, an increase of 180 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.39% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is flat, and the industry inventory has increased by 3.5% this week. The downstream prices are stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March have recovered [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Affected by factors such as the reduction of spot quotes by leading manufacturers, the expected resumption of production in March, and the unresolved position limit, the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a weak oscillation between 45000 - 53000 yuan [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices rose significantly on Friday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is worried about the supply disruptions in Myanmar and Congo. The downstream demand is good, and the global visible inventory has increased slightly after the Spring Festival [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3074 yuan per ton, an increase of 14 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading has not yet picked up, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand for building materials is expected to be weak, and the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and the inventory level is still high [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 745.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The molten iron output has increased slightly month - on - month and is basically the same year - on - year. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The port inventory has increased year - on - year, and there is a structural contradiction [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1078 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent price increase plan. The inventory in each link is differentiated, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Close long positions. Aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 coking coal contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1050 - 1110 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expected bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is strong. The global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to the US soybean export and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term but lacks upward driving force in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to strengthen, and corn spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress has exceeded 60%, but the progress is slow. The downstream inventory is low, and the downstream is in a loss state. The spot price is still dominated by the producing area [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The deep - processing industry replenishes inventory, and the futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [6]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected production in Malaysia in February decreased month - on - month, and the export also decreased month - on - month. It is expected to enter the seasonal production increase period later [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fats and oils are in a weak cycle. Trade the expected seasonal production increase, but there may be a short - term rebound driven by a sharp increase in crude oil. Use the reverse spread structure. Pay attention to the subsequent production and biodiesel policy [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and egg spot prices were stable [6]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and spot prices mostly fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the seasonal pattern, the supply pressure after the Spring Festival is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to run weakly [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the low - price spot quotation of LLDPE in North China rose by 50 - 80 yuan per ton, and the market trading volume increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no new device put into production in the first half of the year, and some existing devices will undergo spring maintenance. If Iran's supply is interrupted, the import volume to China will decrease. The current downstream demand is weak but is improving month - on - month [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Pay attention to the development of the US - Iran incident [7][8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4803, an increase of 0.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory and is still oscillating at the bottom. The supply is large, and the demand from downstream factories has not recovered. The social inventory has reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is balanced and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is $932 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA is 5155 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan per ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high historical level, and the supply of PTA has increased to a high level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the comprehensive inventory pressure is not large [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the fundamentals. The mid - term long - allocation view of PX remains unchanged. Pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has a seasonal inventory increase, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is improving. The processing fee has reached a high level, and it is appropriate to take profits [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1050, a decrease of 0.1% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass is restricted by high inventory, and the price is hovering at the bottom. The supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has accumulated again. The downstream demand is weak, and the glass production is in a loss state [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is very low. It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the spot price of PP in East China rose by 50 yuan per ton, and the overall market trading was okay [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the new device put - into - production in the first half of the year has decreased, and some devices have stopped unexpectedly. The domestic supply is gradually increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream is still on holiday, and the start - up rate is low [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, the new devices put into production in the first half of the year have decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved but the contradiction is still large. It is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG is 3621 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 80 yuan per ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: If Iran's MEG supply is in short supply, it will have a greater impact on the MEG price. From March, MEG devices will have more maintenance, and the polyester demand will pick up, and MEG will start to reduce inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The inventory increase has been fully expected, and inventory reduction may start in March. The current valuation is at a low level, and with geopolitical disturbances, it is recommended to continue to hold long positions [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the outer - market price rose about 7% on Monday morning, and SC is expected to open at the daily limit [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Iran's crude oil production is 3.3 million barrels per day, and the export volume is 1.8 million barrels per day. The conflict may lead to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, which will have a significant impact on oil prices. OPEC has sufficient idle capacity to deal with Iran's supply interruption. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday to formulate a production plan for April [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The current core of crude oil trading is the Middle East geopolitical risk. It is not recommended to directly participate in futures trading. Enterprises worried about rising oil prices can buy out - of - the - money call options at low prices, and enterprises worried about oil prices falling after rising can buy out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract rose slightly by 80 yuan per ton on Saturday, and the spot market quotation in East China was 7700 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene and styrene will improve in the second and third months, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months and will improve in the second quarter [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the pure benzene inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand has marginally improved. It will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is stable. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months, but it will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise due to the impact of the Iran geopolitical event. The upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9][10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1189, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The bottom price of soda ash is in a stalemate, and the upstream orders are okay. The supply is large, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is stable, and there is still an expectation of production reduction in float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is increasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to short at high prices [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the main contract SA2605 increased by 3.83% compared to the previous week, reaching 1194 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, up 3.60% from the previous week [2]. - In terms of supply, some soda ash enterprises resumed from maintenance. It is expected that the output will increase to 800,000 tons next week, with a capacity utilization rate of 86%, and the overall supply is abundant. On the demand side, the downstream demand recovered after the festival, but the procurement enthusiasm was poor, maintaining just - in - time low - price replenishment. The consumption was moderately weak. The daily melting volume of float glass was 148,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 88,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1600 tons [2]. - As of February 27, the inventory of soda ash in factories across the country was 1.8944 million tons, a 19.29% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period of history. Overall, the conflict between the US and Iran may boost the sentiment of the overall commodities. The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected that soda ash will be driven to rise in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1150 yuan/ton to 1194 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.83%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1110 yuan/ton to 1150 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.60%. The main basis increased from - 40 yuan/ton to - 44 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.00% [7]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe market was 1150 yuan/ton, a 3.60% increase from the previous week [13]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 162.25 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash was at a historical low [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 85.04%. The weekly output of soda ash was 790,900 tons, including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were plans for new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 61.12% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 148,600 tons, and the operating rate was 70.61% [28]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories across the country was 1.8944 million tons, a 19.29% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: There was less cold - repair of downstream float glass, and the output remained stable [4]. - **Negative factors**: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the terminal demand declined, the inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry had not been effectively improved. The second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy increased its operating load, and there was no expectation of new maintenance, so the output was expected to remain at a high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash reduced production, and the demand for soda ash weakened [5][6].

Summary of Soda Ash Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The soda ash production methods include ammonia-soda process, dual-soda process, and natural soda process. The natural soda process has the lowest cost at approximately 600 RMB/ton, while the ammonia-soda process costs around 1,300 RMB/ton, and the dual-soda process costs about 1,000-1,100 RMB/ton after considering by-product ammonium chloride [1][4]. Key Points Production Capacity and Structure - The domestic soda ash production capacity structure is changing, with the share of natural soda increasing significantly from 6% in 2023 to over 10% by 2025. The share of ammonia-soda is decreasing, while the dual-soda process is increasing [1][4]. - The industry is highly concentrated, with leading companies holding about 74% of the capacity, primarily located in North China, Central China, and Northwest regions. Major producers include Boyuan Group (660,000 tons, expected to reach 780,000 tons by 2026) and Henan Jinshan (640,000 tons, projected to exceed 800,000 tons after expansion) [1][6]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The price difference between light and heavy soda ash typically ranges from 50-100 RMB/ton, with light soda being produced first and then converted to heavy soda at an additional cost of 50-80 RMB/ton [2]. - The domestic soda ash export volume is expected to reach 2.4-2.5 million tons in 2026, up from 2.2 million tons in 2025, with export prices around 160 USD/ton, closely aligned with overseas prices [2][14]. Supply and Demand Factors - The main upstream raw materials for soda ash production include salt, synthetic ammonia, and limestone, while the main downstream demand comes from photovoltaic glass, float glass, and daily-use glass, accounting for about 60% of total demand [3]. - The soda ash industry is currently facing a slight loss in the dual-soda process and significant losses in the ammonia-soda process, with expected prices in 2026 ranging from 1,000 to 1,350 RMB/ton [2][15]. Future Capacity and Production Trends - New capacity additions are expected to slow down in 2026, with the main production increases coming from previously installed facilities reaching full capacity, such as projects from Boyuan Group and Hubei [5][6]. - The anticipated new capacity includes a 1 million ton project in Tongliao, with the first phase of 500,000 tons expected to be operational in the second half of 2027 [5][6]. Global Market Context - Globally, soda ash capacity is approximately 81.5 million tons, with significant production in the US and Turkey. However, overseas companies are also facing losses, leading to the shutdown of a 1.4 million ton natural soda facility in early 2026 [8][9]. - China accounts for about 50% of global soda ash supply, with production expected to increase from 29 million tons in 2021 to approximately 37.86 million tons by 2025 [9][10]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - Historical price trends show that soda ash prices have fluctuated significantly, with a strong market in 2021 reaching nearly 4,000 RMB/ton. The expected price range for 2026 is between 1,000 and 1,350 RMB/ton, with a volatility space of about 300-350 RMB [19][28]. - The industry is expected to remain in a state of oversupply, with limited upward price movement unless significant supply-side changes occur [23][24]. Environmental and Regulatory Factors - The "anti-involution" policy has minimal impact on the soda ash industry, as overall emissions meet national standards. The ammonia-soda process faces more regulatory scrutiny due to higher emissions [22]. Conclusion - The soda ash industry is undergoing significant changes in production methods and capacity structure, with a shift towards more cost-effective natural soda processes. The market is currently characterized by oversupply and price pressures, with future growth dependent on demand recovery and potential export opportunities.

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/27 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, with the warming of the macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling soda ash. In the medium - to - long term, the price of soda ash may rise first and then fall, and the monthly strategy suggests a bullish view. For glass, due to the weak fundamentals, it is advisable to short on rallies or sell call options monthly. However, if the macro - sentiment is good, the price may remain stable. It is also recommended to go long on soda ash and short on glass for spread trading [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Preface - In February, the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors experienced a rapid decline and slow recovery, releasing market risks and repairing the mis - priced valuations. The soda ash, glass, and black sectors were mainly in a downward trend before the Spring Festival and had a strong bullish sentiment after the festival. The market anticipates a general rise in commodity prices in spring, mainly due to the macro - sentiment repair brought by the Two Sessions and inflation logic. The uncertainty of US tariffs still exists, but the tariff peak may have passed. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions in the Two Sessions, as environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution this year. The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market, but it has little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector [2]. Part Two: Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Review - In February, the futures price of the main soda ash contract declined. The SA05 contract fluctuated between 1146 - 1235 yuan/ton, with increased volatility and a lower trading range. The SA2605 - 09 spread was stable, ending at - 62 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of - 2 yuan/ton. The basis of SA05 was - 19 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of + 24 yuan/ton. The FG05 - SA05 spread first rose and then fell, ending at - 132 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of + 19 yuan/ton. Spot prices of soda ash manufacturers were stable to slightly weak [7]. 2. Risk Release in Non - ferrous Metals and Approaching Two Sessions - In February, the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined to release risks, with silver leading the decline with a monthly drop of 22%. The non - ferrous and precious metal sectors rebounded after hitting the bottom. By the end of the month, the non - ferrous sector had a decline of 7.8%, and the precious metal sector had a decline of 18.4%. The market risk was quickly released, and the mis - priced valuations were repaired. The Two Sessions in March will focus on new - quality productivity, stable growth, expanding domestic demand, industrial upgrading, security development, and people's livelihood security. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions, and environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution. The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market, but it has little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector. From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for 249 photovoltaic and chemical products will be cancelled. In the United States, the mid - term elections will be held in November 2026, and Trump's overall support rate has dropped to about 38% [10][11]. 3. Soda Ash Production at a Historical High and Gradually Accumulating Inventory Pressure - In February, the new production capacity of soda ash was gradually increased, with a monthly output of about 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Some soda ash enterprises had maintenance or shutdowns, while some increased production. Overall, there were few maintenance activities, and the release of new production capacity led to an increase in comprehensive supply. In March, Zhongyan Kunshan has a maintenance plan, and other enterprises have no clear maintenance plans yet. The concentrated increase in new production capacity will gradually put pressure on the soda ash supply. Before discussing the elimination of high - cost production capacity, more attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the operating rate of soda ash enterprises, which is the core observation indicator for the marginal change in the supply - demand relationship [15]. 4. Resilient Demand for Light and Heavy Soda Ash and Lower - than - Expected Inventory Accumulation - During the Spring Festival, the inventory of soda ash increased by 306,400 tons, a rise of 19.29%. By the end of the month, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8944 million tons. The inventory accumulation rate during the Spring Festival was lower than market expectations, indicating resilient demand. In March, with the warming of the macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling. However, in the medium - to - long term, the price may rise first and then fall, and the monthly strategy suggests a bullish view. In February, the average weekly apparent demand for soda ash was about 669,000 tons, equivalent to an average daily apparent demand of about 96,000 tons, a 7.7% decrease compared to the previous month. Among them, the average weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 362,000 tons, a decrease of about 41,000 tons compared to the previous month. The apparent demand for light soda ash was 307,000 tons, a decrease of about 19,000 tons compared to the previous month [20]. 5. Pressure on Cost Transmission in Photovoltaic Glass and Increasing Downward Pressure on Post - Festival Demand - As of the end of February, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,560 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the beginning of the month. It is expected that the global production of downstream components in March will be about 36GW, and the domestic production will be about 28GW. The cancellation of the 9% VAT export tax rebate for core photovoltaic products such as silicon wafers and components from April 1, 2026, led to increased procurement of photovoltaic glass by downstream component enterprises in advance. However, after the industry dividend fades in late March, it is still uncertain whether domestic demand in April can support the high - production of upstream enterprises. On the supply side, most kilns are operating normally, but enterprises are in a state of continuous loss. On the demand side, although supported by export orders, the production of components in February was weak, and the supply - demand gap in the industry remained high. After the Spring Festival, the inventory pressure increased rapidly [25][26][27]. 6. Resilient and Unexpected Demand for Light Soda Ash - As the price of soda ash decreases, its advantage as a basic chemical product becomes prominent. The decentralized downstream demand brings resilience. In 2025, the apparent demand for light soda ash increased unexpectedly, with the annual apparent demand reaching 16.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, far exceeding the previous growth rate range of - 2.6% to 4.5%. The quantifiable part is mainly due to the rapid growth of lithium carbonate production. In 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 944,000 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate required about 1.89 million tons of light soda ash. In February, the monthly apparent demand for light soda ash was about 1.284 million tons [30]. 7. Exit of US Soda Ash Plants and Expected Increase in China's Export Share - As the price of soda ash falls, the export window opens. In 2025, the average monthly export of soda ash was over 180,000 tons, and it is expected that the high - level export of soda ash will continue in 2026. The top five trading partners are Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, South Korea, and Malaysia, accounting for 37% of the total export volume. China's main export regions are Jiangsu, Shandong, and Hebei, and the export volume from Qinghai and Inner Mongolia has increased significantly. The exit of a US soda ash manufacturer will increase China's export share in the overseas market, especially in Southeast Asia [35]. 8. Weak Raw Material Prices and Slight Decline in Cost Range - In February, the price of sea salt was stable, the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, the price of thermal coal fluctuated upwards, and the cost increased. The price of by - product ammonium chloride increased significantly. As of February 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 90.15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit (double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 1.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 95.38%. The price of thermal coal strengthened, the supply and demand of domestic thermal coal were both weak, and the market trading was light. The price of ammonium chloride increased, and the supply enterprises advanced production conservatively. The coke market price remained stable [40]. Part Three: Glass Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Review - In February, the main glass contract FG2605 weakened. The FG05 contract fluctuated between 1037 - 1120 yuan/ton, with a lower price range. The spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of glass narrowed, ending at - 97 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of + 11 yuan/ton. The basis between the main glass contract and the spot price in Shahe was - 40 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of + 10 yuan/ton. The spot prices of glass manufacturers in Hubei and Shahe remained basically unchanged [45]. 2. Slight Decrease in Float Glass Supply and Attention to Carbon Emission Statements in the Two Sessions - As of the end of the month, the daily melting capacity of float glass was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons compared to the beginning of the month. There were 296 glass production lines in China (with a daily melting capacity of 199,500 tons) after excluding zombie production lines, of which 209 were in production and 87 were shut down for cold repair. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions in the Two Sessions. Environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution. It is expected that the glass supply in 2026 will decrease by 8.2% year - on - year to 52.93 million tons, equivalent to a daily melting capacity of 145,000 tons [47]. 3. Glass Demand May Be Weaker than Expected - In February, the average weekly apparent demand for glass was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. After the Spring Festival, the domestic float glass market was quiet. Most downstream processing plants were shut down and planned to resume work after the Lantern Festival, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of inventory structure, the glass inventory increased by 45% to 76 million heavy boxes in February, with significant inventory accumulation in North China and Central China. It is expected that the glass demand in 2026 will be 51.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%. The continued decline of the real estate market has a significant negative impact on glass demand, while the demand for home - decoration glass remains stable, and the demand for automotive glass shows resilience [52]. 4. Further Relaxation of Purchase Restrictions in Shanghai and Urban Renewal as the Future Focus - The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market. The further relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shanghai will have a siphon effect on second - and third - tier cities, increasing the differentiation and having little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector. The recovery of the real estate market will be slow and complex, and the completion data in 2026 is expected to hover at a low level. The future recovery will depend more on the long - term improvement of the real estate market, such as the continuous recovery of the sales market and the improvement of the self - financing ability of real estate enterprises [56]. 5. Decrease in Soda Ash Price and Increase in Glass Cost - As of February 26, 2026, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 142.26 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24.29 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 30.79 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 43.93 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of steel are both weak, inventory is still accumulating, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand is average. The inventory pressure of iron ore remains, the resumption of coal mines after the Spring Festival will accelerate, the downstream replenishment willingness of coking coal is limited, and the supply - demand pressure of glass and soda ash remains. The prices of related varieties are under pressure. Affected by the news of South African manganese ore, the alloy futures market is strong, but it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure when the price rises to a high level [1] - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is still cautious. The futures market still has downward adjustment pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply side still has expectations of weather disturbances. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, but the pressure has been released after the rapid decline of the futures market. With the upcoming Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, there are still macro expectations. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are both weak in the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and actual demand in the future [8] Carbon Element - Coke: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to continue to grow. As logistics and transportation gradually recover, the inventory accumulation of coking enterprises will be alleviated. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [11] - Coking coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of manganese ore prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental contradiction is not large, but there is no obvious upward driving force in the futures market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and electricity costs, as well as the changes in the production start - up level of manufacturers [17] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair, the high inventory will always suppress the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13] Other Information - The report also provides daily monitoring data of spot and futures indicators of black building materials varieties, including spot prices, basis, and futures market profits of various varieties [20] - The report shows the commodity index and plate index of CITIC Futures on February 26, 2026, including the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index, as well as their changes [102][104]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic chemical market is experiencing significant differentiation due to geopolitical disturbances and fundamental differences, marking a critical window for the chemical sector [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The chemical sector is witnessing a clear divide, with the polyester industry chain showing signs of a favorable economic cycle, while methanol and PVC face substantial supply-demand pressures [1] - The PTA industry is at the end of a 7-year capacity cycle, with no new PTA production plans in 2026, leading to a supply gap and increased demand from downstream polyester sectors [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - As of February 13, the domestic PTA capacity utilization rate was only 74.22%, the lowest in nearly four years, which supports price stability; PTA prices have rebounded, with processing fees exceeding 400 yuan/ton, significantly improving industry profitability [2] - In contrast, PVC, methanol, soda ash, and glass are under pressure from high inventory and weak demand, making them the weaker segments of the post-holiday chemical market [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on strong sectors like the polyester chain, particularly PTA, which has medium to long-term support, while remaining cautious on weak sectors like PVC and methanol [3] - It is essential to monitor key data such as downstream operating rates and order volumes in the next 2-3 weeks to gauge market dynamics during the demand verification period [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The chemical industry is at a pivotal point for supply optimization and demand structural transformation, with the "anti-involution" trend driving the elimination of outdated capacities and new growth opportunities emerging in semiconductor materials, new energy materials, and robotics materials [3]

Group 1 - The shipping European index has significantly declined, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market, with the main contract dropping by 5.19% to 1236 points [20][35] - The rebar steel inventory has increased to 8.006 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 845,600 tons, while rebar production decreased by 52,800 tons, a decline of 3.10% [11][27] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers have reported a total inventory of 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 30,640 tons, representing a rise of 19.29% [11][28] Group 2 - The manganese silicon main contract has seen a notable increase, closing at 5,918 yuan per ton, with a rise of 2.85%, supported by strong cost support from factories [33][34] - The coking coal main contract has experienced a decline of 2.46%, closing at 1,090 yuan per ton, due to increased supply and pressure on demand from steel mills [21][36] - The palm oil prices have remained strong throughout January, indicating a potential short-term structural bottom despite facing challenges from the delayed implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate [11][28]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 摘要 三、 下游需求驱动预期有限 纯碱近期价格跌至低位，节后随着下游需求逐步恢复，上游库存压力预计有所缓解，纯碱仍 处于低估值弱驱动，短期观望或轻仓尝试反套。在供大于求格局未有明显改善下，中期趋势 仍以反弹试空思路对待。 一、 绝对库存偏高，压制价格表现 截至2.26，碱厂库存189.44万吨，春节期间上游库存整体延续增加态势，绝对库存量维持高位，节后随 着物流运输改善，累库速度放缓。 从中下游来看，预计多数延续刚需低价补货，截至2月下旬，玻璃厂内原料库存加上在途库存30天左 右，春节假期归来后下游询价为主，在维持原料安全库存下，下游或难有集中且持续的补货行为。截至 2月下旬，交割库库存在30万吨左右，交割库库存变化会结合盘面波动。 总体来看，在纯碱供应相对高位且下游刚需下，上游绝对库存压力难以缓解，成为压制价格表现的因素 之一。 二、 供应相对高位，关注后续检修动态 从产能产量上看，远兴2期、云图控股于2025年12月投产，今年一季度产能预计逐步放量；一季度是行 业开工旺季，在新产能放量及存量开工高位下，预计供应端仍较为充裕。近期虽有装置降负 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haihua plans to invest 4.837 billion yuan in a project aimed at upgrading its traditional chemical industry towards green, low-carbon, and sustainable development [1] Group 1: Investment and Project Details - The company will implement a "comprehensive utilization of resources and energy" project focused on enhancing the efficiency and environmental performance of its soda ash production [1] - The project includes the construction of a 400,000 tons/year ammonia synthesis unit and a 1 million tons/year soda ash unit [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The expected annual operating revenue from the project is 2.157 billion yuan, with an anticipated annual net profit of 271 million yuan [1] - The project is projected to reduce limestone consumption by 1.8 million tons annually [1]