Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on enhancing its profitability through continuous optimization of its business structure, particularly in its core smelting operations which yield higher profit margins from by-products like rare metals [1] Group 1 - The smelting business is identified as the company's core profit-generating segment [1] - Rare metals, as by-products of complex gold concentrates, contribute to higher profit margins, increasing the company's profit elasticity [1] - The company is actively implementing measures to improve its gross profit margin [1]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 50 tons, reaching a total of 157,925 tons, reflecting a 0.03% rise [1] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 544,075 tons, showing a 0.37% decline [1] - Zinc inventory rose by 1,000 tons to 46,075 tons, marking a 2.22% increase [1] - Nickel inventory decreased by 1,674 tons to 254,172 tons, a decline of 0.65% [1] - Tin inventory fell by 50 tons to 3,065 tons, representing a 1.61% decrease [1] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warrants - Registered copper warrants totaled 148,450 tons, with a cancellation rate of 6.00% [2] - Registered aluminum warrants were at 484,800 tons, with a cancellation rate of 10.89% [2] - Registered zinc warrants reached 42,475 tons, with a cancellation rate of 7.81% [2] - Registered nickel warrants were 244,476 tons, with a cancellation rate of 3.81% [2] - Registered tin warrants stood at 2,995 tons, with a cancellation rate of 2.28% [2] Group 3: Specific Warehouse Inventory Changes - The largest copper inventory was at Changxing with 68,925 tons, an increase of 300 tons [4] - The largest aluminum inventory was at Port Klang with 355,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [6] - The largest zinc inventory was at Kaohsiung with 9,450 tons, an increase of 800 tons [10] - The largest tin inventory was at Changxing with 3,065 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [12] - The largest nickel inventory was at Singapore with 76,752 tons, unchanged [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haotong Technology, has announced its intention to apply for the qualification of designated delivery warehouses for platinum and palladium futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which is expected to enhance its risk resistance and market competitiveness while improving profitability [2]. Group 1 - The company will hold the seventh board meeting on November 19, 2025, to review the proposal for applying for designated delivery warehouse qualifications [2]. - The application aims to integrate the spot market, futures market, and delivery warehouses, thereby strengthening the company's overall market position [2]. - The management has been authorized to submit the application materials and handle related matters [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haotong Technology, has approved a proposal to apply for designated delivery warehouse qualifications for platinum and palladium futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1] Group 1 - The board of directors has reviewed and passed the proposal regarding the application for designated delivery warehouse qualifications [1] - The company will authorize its management to submit the application materials and handle other related matters [1]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventories for various metals, highlighting significant fluctuations in stock levels and registration rates across different locations [1][2][4][5][13]. Inventory Changes - **Copper**: The total inventory increased to 157,875 tons, with a rise of 17,375 tons or 12.37% from the previous day. Registered warrants rose by 12.60% to 148,150 tons, while the cancellation rate was 6.16% [1][2][4]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory decreased to 546,075 tons, down by 2,000 tons or 0.36%. Registered warrants fell by 6.02% to 490,775 tons, with a significant increase in cancellations by 113.93% to 55,300 tons, resulting in a cancellation rate of 10.13% [1][2][5]. - **Zinc**: The inventory rose to 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons or 3.56%. Registered warrants increased by 3.62% to 41,550 tons, with a cancellation rate of 7.82% [1][2][9]. - **Nickel**: The inventory decreased to 255,846 tons, down by 1,986 tons or 0.77%. Registered warrants were at 244,452 tons, with a cancellation rate of 4.45% [1][2][13]. - **Tin**: The inventory increased to 3,115 tons, up by 60 tons or 1.96%. Registered warrants were at 2,995 tons, with a cancellation rate of 3.85% [1][2][11]. Location-Specific Changes - **Copper Locations**: Significant increases in inventory were noted in locations such as Kaohsiung (+8,275 tons) and Hla (+7,525 tons), while Rotterdam saw a decrease of 100 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Locations**: The largest inventory drop was in Port Klang, which decreased by 2,000 tons, while other locations like Kaohsiung and Rotterdam maintained stable levels [5]. - **Zinc Locations**: Notable increases were observed in Singapore (+50 tons) and Kaohsiung (+1,275 tons), while Port Klang remained unchanged [9]. - **Tin Locations**: The largest increase was in Port Klang, which rose by 60 tons, while other locations showed minimal changes [11]. - **Nickel Locations**: The most significant drop occurred in Kaohsiung, which decreased by 2,238 tons, while Rotterdam saw a slight increase of 252 tons [13].

Core Viewpoint - Haotong Technology (301026.SZ) has approved the application for designated delivery warehouses for platinum and palladium futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which is expected to enhance the company's risk resistance and market competitiveness, thereby improving profitability [1] Group 1 - The seventh board of directors' tenth meeting approved the proposal to apply for designated delivery warehouses for platinum and palladium futures [1] - The company is authorized to submit application materials and handle related matters [1] - This application aims to integrate the spot market, futures market, and delivery warehouses, enhancing the company's overall operational capabilities [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday, with the TMT sector rising against the trend and the pro-cyclical sectors experiencing a collective decline. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The central bank's net investment may increase, but if the net investment is less than expected, the tightness of the capital market may continue this week. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for long - term bonds [5][7]. - The precious metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - The shipping index (European line) showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term and rise in shock in the short term [11][12]. - The copper market showed a shock operation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in the demand side and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [12][16]. - The alumina market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on whether the production reduction of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [17][19]. - The aluminum market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the changes in downstream start - up, inventory depletion rhythm, and overseas policies [21][22]. - The aluminum alloy market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion process [22][24]. - The zinc market showed a shock adjustment. It is recommended to focus on whether there is an improvement in demand and interest - rate cut expectations [24][27]. - The tin market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [27][31]. - The nickel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][33]. - The stainless - steel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of steel mills and the price of nickel iron [34][37]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [38][41]. - The polysilicon market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [42][43]. - The industrial silicon market showed a small - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][45]. - The steel market showed a weak trend. It is recommended to try short positions. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge [46][48]. - The iron ore market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. - The coking coal market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. - The coke market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - The meal market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [57][60]. - The pig market showed a sign of stabilization. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A - share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. The TMT sector rose against the trend, and the pro - cyclical sectors declined significantly [2][3]. - News: Domestically, China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan discussed economic and monetary policies with the prime minister [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market was stable, and the central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - Operation suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. If there is a deep decline, consider a bull spread of put options [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: The main contracts of treasury futures all rose, and the yield of major interest - bearing bonds changed little [5]. - Capital: The central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity was tight [5]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations in the short term [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US labor market remained resilient, and the US Treasury announced relevant data. The US stock market fell, and precious metals bottomed out and rebounded [8][9]. - Outlook: In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - Capital: The outflow trend of gold and silver ETFs may gradually weaken [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was different [12]. - Logic: The futures market showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term [12]. - Operation suggestion: Rise in shock in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. - Macro: The US government shutdown affected the market liquidity and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [13]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper decreased in October [14]. - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and the downstream demand was resilient [15]. - Inventory: The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [15]. - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals support the copper price. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [16][17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: The price of alumina decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed [17]. - Supply: The production of alumina increased in October, and it is expected to continue to be in a surplus situation in November [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of alumina increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum decreased, and the market trading was inactive [19]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and it is expected to decrease slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum products decreased, and the demand was under pressure [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was difficult to deplete [22]. - Logic: The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up, inventory depletion, and overseas policies [21][22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy decreased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased in October, and it is expected to continue to decline in November [23]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy was weak, and the inventory digestion was slow [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy decreased slightly [23]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to focus on scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory depletion [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the supply pressure of refined zinc was relieved [25]. - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was basically stable, and the demand was not strong [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is stable, and the zinc price will fluctuate. It is recommended to focus on demand improvement and interest - rate cut expectations [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin decreased slightly, and the market trading was average [27]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in September, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder decreased in October, and the inventory increased slightly [29]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand in South China is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [31]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [31]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel decreased significantly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel decreased in October, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [32]. - Logic: The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian policies [33]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel was stable, and the market trading was inactive [34]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased [34]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel decreased in November, and the supply pressure was still there [35][36]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [36]. - Logic: The policy and macro - driving forces were insufficient, and the price was expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on steel mill production reduction and nickel iron price [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [38]. Carbonate Lithium - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the market trading was light [38]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in October, and it is expected to continue to increase [39]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was optimistic, and the inventory decreased [39][40]. - Logic: The price fluctuated in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the resumption of production of large enterprises and the marginal changes in demand [41]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [42]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The price of polysilicon was stable [42]. - Supply: The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November and increase slightly in December [42]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [43]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [43]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: The price of industrial silicon was stable [44]. - Supply: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November [44]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline, and the inventory decreased [44][45]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [45]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to operate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, and the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit of cold - rolled coils was the highest [46]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased, and the production of five major steel products decreased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand was weak, and the export was at a high level. The apparent demand decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils needed to be further reduced [48]. - View: The price of steel was stable, and the price of coking coal decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly [49]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures increased, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [49]. - Basis: The optimal delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [49]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal increased, and the demand for iron ore was high [49]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival at ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased [50]. - View: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The price of coking coal futures decreased significantly, and the spot price also showed a downward trend [51]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal increased [51][53]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased, and the steel mill's replenishment demand was weak [52][53]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [52]. - View: The price of coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Coke - Futures and spot: The price of coke futures decreased, and the spot price was expected to be stable in the short term [55][56]. - Profit: The average profit of coking plants was negative [55]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [55]. - Demand: The demand for coke was affected by the increase in hot - metal output and the decrease in steel mill profit [56]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [56]. - View: The price of coke is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal was up and down, and there was no transaction [57][58]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was at the lower end of the expected range. China purchased US soybeans [58][59]. - Outlook: The US soybean demand improved, but the export demand was still weak. The domestic soybean meal supply was loose. It is expected to fluctuate widely [59][60]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price of pigs oscillated, and there were signs of stabilization [61].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US stock market continues to decline despite an improvement in the "small non - farm" data. The international economic and trade order is impacted by high tariffs and other barriers. [1] - The stock index market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. The technology sector is a long - term focus. The domestic glass and纯碱 markets are in a process of inventory digestion, and the crude oil market has a downward trend. [2][3] 3. Summary by Category A. Main News - **International News**: Trump claims to have selected the next Fed Chair candidate, and the short - listed candidates include current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. [6] - **Domestic News**: In October, the unemployment rates of the non - student urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 are 17.3%, 7.2%, and 3.8% respectively. [1][7] - **Industry News**: After Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Tianjin, Nanjing and Suzhou in Jiangsu Province will carry out real - estate trust property registration pilot projects. [8] B. Performance of Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: US indices decline. The domestic stock index market had a correction, with the media and computer sectors leading the rise, and coal and power equipment sectors leading the fall. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The technology sector is a long - term direction, and the market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. [2][11] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remain weak, with last week's inventory at 5962 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 54 million heavy cases. Soda ash futures slightly decline, with last week's inventory at 154.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. [2][17] - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rises 0.74%. An attack on a port in Russia causes it to suspend oil exports, equivalent to 2% of global supply. US refined oil demand is lower than last year, and the number of online drilling rigs shows a long - term downward trend. [3][13] C. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The long - term trend is positive, with a focus on the technology sector. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and external funds may flow in. [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rise slightly. The central bank's open - market operations and the economic situation at home and abroad affect the bond market. The market liquidity is expected to be reasonably abundant. [12] - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse, affected by supply and demand factors. [3][13] - **Methanol**: It rises slightly at night. The inventory is accumulating, and the short - term trend is weak. [14] - **Rubber**: It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, affected by supply and demand and weather conditions. [15] - **Polyolefins**: Futures decline. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by the overall market. It may continue to fluctuate at a low level. [16] - **Metals** - **Copper**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the long - term price may be supported by the supply - demand gap. [19] - **Zinc**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and the price may fluctuate within a range. [20] - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend may correct, depending on factors such as supply, steel de - stocking speed, and iron - water production. [21] - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: It adjusts weakly at night. The US soybean production and inventory data are mixed, and the domestic market is in a loose pattern. [22] - **Oils and Fats**: They run strongly at night. The palm oil market has different supply - demand situations, and the soybean oil is supported. The rapeseed oil may fluctuate. [23] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to decline, while the domestic market may fluctuate within a range. [24][25] - **Cotton**: The price is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. [26] - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price fluctuates and declines. The price support in November is uncertain, and the 02 contract has limited upward space. [27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume remains low, and short - term market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index up further [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1] - The recent cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has led to a callback in copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metal prices, but the callback range of copper is expected to be limited. For different non - ferrous metals, there are different fundamental factors affecting their prices [1] - For various commodities such as steel, energy, and agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand relationship, cost, and macro - sentiment, and most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with different risk and opportunity characteristics [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond Markets - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and short - term divergence will be digested during shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving factor [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward trend [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price has a limited callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation in December [1] - Aluminum price has a callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation and limited industrial - side drive [1] - Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - Zinc has support below due to low LME inventory and signs of improvement in the domestic fundamentals [1] - Nickel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to macro - weakness and high inventory, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel continues [1] - Stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in shock, and short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Tin is still bullish in the long - term despite short - term pressure from the Fed rate - cut expectation [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals may be under pressure in the short term due to the hawkish statements of Fed officials, and attention should be paid to the upcoming US economic data [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and it is affected by polysilicon [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - Lithium carbonate: It may fluctuate due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and high hedging pressure [1] Steel and Iron Ore - For steel products, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] - Iron ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is expected to run weakly due to the increase in production in the first half of November [1] - Soybean oil has support from domestic consumption demand and export window, but the CBOT soybean's retracement of policy premium has a short - term negative impact [1] - Rapeseed oil: The inability of Canada to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and plans to increase biodiesel production capacity make it difficult for Canadian rapeseed to be exported to China in the short term, and the basis is stable and slightly strong [1] - Cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to relevant policies and planting conditions [1] - Sugar: Global sugar supply turns from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be under pressure and follow the trend of raw sugar [1] - Corn: Short - term spot prices are firm, but the selling pressure is postponed, and the upward drive of the futures price is weak [1] - Soybean meal: The short - term upward expectation lacks impetus, and the market may start to trade the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel oil: Affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to decline due to factors such as the possible falsification of the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand [1] - Rubber: Different types of rubber have different price trends affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and market atmosphere [1] - PTA and related products: Their prices are affected by factors such as gasoline profit, device maintenance, and raw - material cost [1] - Ethylene glycol: Its price is affected by the decline of crude oil price, the increase of coal price, and the strong expectation of domestic device commissioning [1] - Other chemicals: Their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and device maintenance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The technology - growth sector remains the market's main line, and the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction [9]. - For various metals and commodities, the strategies vary according to supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, for copper, the supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for prices; for aluminum, supply disruptions and improved export expectations may push prices higher [13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The chairman of the CSRC visited French and Brazilian financial regulatory authorities; in October, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates; the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.5%; SMIC's Q3 net profit increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly. The technology - growth sector is still the main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes; in October, financial data such as M2, M1, and M0 had different performances; the US failed to release the October CPI report; the central bank conducted 1900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices were reported; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported; Fed officials' overall stance was hawkish, but the monetary policy was expected to be further relaxed; after the retirement of the Atlanta Fed chairman, the Fed may show a "dovish tendency" [8][9]. - **Strategy**: In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market strengthened, and the US October CPI data was not released as scheduled. Copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and other inventory data changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference is under pressure, but the supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating range for Shanghai copper futures is provided [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply concerns caused by overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts, low domestic inventory, and expected easing of global trade tensions and Fed monetary policy may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum futures are provided [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc 3S also rose. Domestic and LME zinc inventory data and other market indicators were reported [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, zinc smelting profit was under pressure, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation slowed down. Shanghai zinc is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead 3S rose. Domestic and LME lead inventory data and other market indicators were reported [17]. - **Strategy**: The profit of primary and secondary lead smelting is good, but raw material shortages limit lead ingot output. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded, and LME lead has been continuously destocking. Shanghai lead is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot market premiums were stable, and nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices accelerated their decline [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough or risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel futures are provided [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures prices rose. The supply of tin was affected by the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand in emerging fields provided support [19][20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin futures are provided [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also rose. Domestic production increased slightly, and inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks on Thursday had a strong impact on the futures market sentiment. The supply growth rate slowed down this week, and the inventory days continued to hit a new low. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the change in the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is provided [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the unilateral trading volume decreased. The basis, overseas prices, and futures inventory data were reported [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is provided [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory decreased, and the supply was still under pressure [26]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and oscillating trend, mainly affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and the weighted contract position decreased. The inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand is relatively average. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had different changes, and the spot prices were stable. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [30]. - **Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed up slightly yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. In the short term, prices are expected to continue the weak and oscillating trend, but demand may improve in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. The Ximangduo iron ore project was officially put into operation, but the output increase is expected to be limited this year [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased, and the demand increased marginally. The high inventory still suppresses prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The soda - ash futures price rose, and the inventory decreased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy**: The glass market has limited positive factors, and prices are expected to decline. The soda - ash industry has high supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon futures price rose slightly. The prices are in an oscillating range [38]. - **Strategy**: In November, the pricing of the black sector has returned to fundamentals. The iron - water output has continued to decline, and steel demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on rebounds. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is relatively low [39][40][41]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell, and the polysilicon futures price rose. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of relevant news and risk control [43][46]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The start - up rate of tire factories was neutral, and inventory data were reported [48][49]. - **Strategy**: Currently, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and quick entry and exit. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [51]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price fell, and the prices of related refined - oil futures also fell. Singapore's oil - product inventory data were reported [52]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price was stable, and the basis and spread data were reported [54]. - **Strategy**: High port inventory continues to suppress prices. The supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price had different changes, and the basis and spread data were reported [55]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to positive news. The domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. The price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [56]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene had different changes, and the supply - demand and inventory data were reported [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is being destocked. The price of styrene may stop falling periodically [58]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [59]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [60]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA rising driven by PXN in the medium term [64]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [65][66]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly in November. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [67]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [68]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The supply is limited, and the demand may improve seasonally [69]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand has rebounded seasonally. The price is expected to be supported after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [71][72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall, and the demand was weak, but farmers' resistance to low - price sales was increasing [74]. - **Strategy**: In the future, the supply of live pigs is expected to be excessive, and the main strategy is to short on rallies. Currently, an inverse spread strategy is recommended, followed by shorting after rallies [75]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline, and the supply was sufficient while the demand was average [76]. - **Strategy**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [77]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean inventory was at a high level. The soybean meal sales and pick - up were good [78]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybean meal is expected to oscillate. In the short term, soybean meal prices may follow the import cost, and in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [80]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The import of Indian palm oil and other oils decreased. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend [81]. - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to oscillate. If there are signals of production decline, a long - position strategy can be adopted [82]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease [83][85]. - **Strategy**: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [86]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate, and the spot price fell. The downstream demand was weak, and the开机率 of spinning mills decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate due to weak demand and high supply [88].