Core Viewpoint - Zinc futures on the Shanghai market showed a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 25,130.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.20% [1] Market Data Summary - As of January 14, LME zinc inventory stood at 106,725 tons, a decrease of 175 tons, with registered warrants at 97,875 tons and canceled warrants at 8,850 tons, representing 8.29% of the total [2] - On January 14, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total long position of 147,100 contracts and a short position of 141,800 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.04. The net position increased by 477 contracts compared to the previous day, totaling 5,341 contracts [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a zinc warehouse receipt of 33,262 tons on January 14, down 351 tons from the previous trading day. Over the past week, the total decline in warehouse receipts was 7,657 tons, a decrease of 18.71%, and over the past month, the decline was 17,441 tons, a decrease of 34.40% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that macro sentiment impact is weakening, with upstream raw material supply tightening and zinc smelting supply reducing. As the holiday approaches, downstream zinc operating rates are gradually declining, leading to rigid consumption sentiment in the high-priced zinc market. The rebalancing of domestic and international inventories may reopen the import window, potentially supplementing domestic supply. The basic supply-demand reality is weak, suggesting a short-term high-level oscillation, with a reference price range for the main Shanghai zinc contract between 23,000 and 24,500 CNY/ton [4] - Nanhua Futures indicated that the TC in January continues to decline, with the core issue being the tight domestic raw material supply. However, due to rising by-product prices, zinc smelting can maintain production at lower processing fees, keeping January output at a high level. From a long-term perspective, supply is expected to be loose, with the import window likely to open as LME continues to deliver. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream terminal consumption. Domestic inventory reduction supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory has surpassed 100,000 tons. Looking ahead, while the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc have potential for bullish sentiment, there is significant hedging pressure above, maintaining a view of strong oscillation [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The AI applications and commercial aerospace sectors experienced significant declines, with stocks like Tianlong Group, Zhidema, and Guangyun Technology hitting the "20CM" limit down [1] - The non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors saw gains, with multiple stocks reaching historical highs [2] - Major ETFs such as the Huashang 300 ETF and the Shanghai 50 ETF showed significant trading volume, with the Huashang 300 ETF reaching a transaction amount of 12.52 billion yuan in the morning [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector, including precious, energy, and industrial metals, performed well, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Huanxi Nonferrous achieving record stock prices [2] - The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 36.71% from the beginning of the month, reaching 160,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 3: Lithium and Battery Materials - Tianli Lithium Energy announced a planned production line maintenance from January 14 to February 28, 2026, which is expected to reduce lithium iron phosphate output by 1,500 to 2,000 tons, but will not significantly impact operations [4] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is strong due to the rapid growth of the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, leading to a potential supply shortage [4] Group 4: Silver Market - The silver market showed strong performance, with spot silver prices reaching a historical high of over 93 USD per ounce on January 14, although there was a significant drop of over 7% in the morning [4] - Analysts from Industrial Securities and Ping An Securities expect a long-term upward trend in silver prices due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI and re-industrialization [5] Group 5: High Dividend Assets - High dividend assets, including sectors like electricity, oil and gas extraction, and transportation, showed active performance, with leading stocks such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation rising [7] - Changjiang Electric Power reported a profit of 41.32 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.34% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - IH, IF, IC, IM stock indices, rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn are rated as bullish; crude oil, methanol, apple, and container shipping to Europe are rated as bearish [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The US inflation pressure has eased, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened. The global synchronous interest - rate cut cycle provides a favorable environment for the rise of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of gold continues, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise. The stock market is expected to continue the upward trend in shock due to factors such as technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflow. The short - term trend of oils and fats is mainly volatile. The prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][4][5][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News - **International News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the overall economic activity in eight of the 12 Fed districts increased slightly to moderately. Most banks reported a small and moderate increase in consumer spending during the holiday shopping season [8] - **Domestic News**: The policy of tax refund for residents' housing replacement has been extended until the end of 2027. Taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a housing within one year can get a tax refund [9] - **Industry News**: The minimum margin ratio for investors' margin trading has been raised from 80% to 100% [10] 3.2 Outer - market Daily Earnings - The S&P 500 fell 0.53% to 6,926.60 points; the European STOXX 50 rose 0.06% to 5,116.59 points; the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.68% to 15,295.00 points. The dollar index fell 0.11% to 99.08 points. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.11% to $65.39 per barrel. London gold rose 0.88% to $4,626.10 per ounce, and London silver rose 7.00% to $93.00 per ounce [12] 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Indices**: The US stock indices fell, and the previous trading day's stock indices rose and then fell. The computer sector led the rise, and the banking sector led the fall. The stock market is expected to continue the upward trend in shock [13] - **Treasury Bonds**: The prices of Treasury bond futures have stabilized. The central bank's open - market operation has a net reverse - repurchase injection, and the market risk preference has declined. The expectation of loose policies at the beginning of the year is strong [14][15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rose 1.8% at night. There are geopolitical factors affecting the oil market, and some OPEC countries have compensation plans for overproduction [16] - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.14% at night. The supply - demand pattern is stable, and the supply of Iranian sources is the main trading logic [17] - **Natural Rubber**: The price trend is expected to be slightly stronger in shock. The domestic production area has stopped cutting, and the demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production [18] - **Polyolefins**: The futures of polyolefins continue the rebound trend, supported by supply improvement expectations and rising international oil prices [19] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures are in low - level consolidation, and the soda ash futures closed slightly up. The market focuses on the recovery of the real - estate industry chain and the supply - side contraction [21] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals fluctuated at a high level at night. The long - term upward trend of gold continues, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise [22] - **Copper**: The copper price fell 0.44% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the short - term price is more affected by market sentiment [23] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose 1.31% at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [24] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell 0.32% at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the long - term low inventory and supply constraints provide support [25] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract fluctuated. The market is concerned, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [26][27] 3.3.4 Black Series - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated at night. The short - term trend is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to supply, iron - water production, and downstream restocking [28] - **Steel**: The steel price rose slightly at night. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the macro effect accounts for a large proportion [29] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price fluctuated. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in shock, and steel mills will maintain on - demand procurement [30] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The soybean meal rose and the rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the US soybean production is expected to increase, which will put pressure on prices [31][32] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report had a neutral impact, and the Indonesian biodiesel policy has affected market sentiment. The short - term trend is mainly volatile [33] - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar main contract fluctuated. The international and domestic supply pressures are different, and the short - term price is expected to run within a range [34] - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract fluctuated. The downstream demand has support, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [35] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract rose 0.21%. The pre - holiday freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel, but the 04 contract may enter a shock pattern due to the game between freight - rate cuts and export rush expectations [36]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting January 1 will significantly impact China's high-carbon industries, particularly steel and aluminum exports to the EU, which account for approximately 3.5% of China's total exports to the EU [2][3]. Group 1: Short-term Impact - The initial pressure from CBAM is manageable, with a starting carbon cost of only 2.5%, allowing Chinese companies to maintain competitive pricing in the short term [4]. - The default emission values set by the EU for Chinese products are generally higher than the global average, creating an unfair barrier for Chinese exporters [4]. - The steel industry, in particular, may face increased export tariffs and competitive pressure, especially for companies that do not conduct their own carbon assessments [3][4]. Group 2: Compliance and Adaptation - Chinese exporters need to shift from relying on default values for carbon reporting to establishing their own carbon monitoring and reporting systems [5][6]. - Over 90% of Chinese companies used global average default values during the trial phase, which will lead to increased carbon costs once country-specific values are published [5]. - Companies are encouraged to engage with third-party certification bodies to enhance the credibility of their carbon data and compliance [6]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy - The transition to low-carbon operations should be a key focus for companies aiming to expand in international markets, with an emphasis on developing green products and processes [8]. - The CBAM will expand to include around 180 downstream products by 2028, necessitating a comprehensive approach to carbon footprint management across the entire supply chain [8]. - Companies should evaluate potential partners based on their carbon data transparency and low-carbon transition plans to ensure compliance and competitiveness in the future [8]. Group 4: External Environment and Policy - The Chinese government advocates for fair trade practices and is prepared to take necessary measures against any unfair trade restrictions imposed by the EU [9]. - There is a call for improvements in the domestic carbon market, including the introduction of auction mechanisms and negotiations with the EU for recognition of China's carbon pricing [9].

乳目技 周敏波 Z0015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 102510 | 103235 | -725.00 | -0.70% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 0.00 | | 元/肥 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 102155 | 103165 | -1010.00 | -0.98% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 20 | 5 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 102395 | 103110 | -715.00 | -0.69% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -55 | -65 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 50ae | 5537 | -440.71 | -7.96% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 64.31 | 41.94 | +22.37 | - | 美元/肥 | | 进口盈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yuguang Gold Lead has seen a stock price increase of 1.28% to 13.46 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 16.20 billion CNY and a trading volume of 162.77 billion CNY, marking a cumulative increase of 6.57% over three consecutive days [1] - Yuguang Gold Lead's main business includes non-ferrous metal smelting and sales, chemical raw materials sales, precious metal smelting, and sales of gold and silver products [1] - The revenue composition of Yuguang Gold Lead is as follows: silver products 25.90%, copper products 25.75%, lead products 21.74%, gold products 21.38%, antimony products 1.66%, zinc products 1.65%, others 1.27%, and sulfuric acid 0.66% [1] Group 2 - The top circulating shareholder of Yuguang Gold Lead is a fund under Qianhai Kaiyuan, which has recently entered the top ten circulating shareholders with 3.883 million shares, accounting for 0.36% of circulating shares, and has earned approximately 660,100 CNY in floating profit today [2] - During the three-day increase, the floating profit for this fund has reached 3.2229 million CNY [2] - The Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold and Silver Jewelry Mixed A Fund (001302) has a total scale of 683 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 9.78%, ranking 965 out of 8,836 in its category [2]

Group 1 - Aluminum prices are nearing the highest levels since early 2022, with LME aluminum prices approaching $3200 per ton, just $0.5 shy of the peak [1] - Tin prices have increased for the third consecutive day, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 20%, making it the best-performing metal on the London Metal Exchange [1] - The strong performance of base metals in 2026 is attributed to expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and supply constraints failing to meet demand, particularly driven by the growth of artificial intelligence [1] Group 2 - The tin market is expected to remain tight in the coming months, characterized by limited supply and strong demand, especially in the semiconductor and emerging technology sectors [2] - Indonesia's export policies and actions against illegal mining are creating regulatory uncertainty and potential supply disruption risks for refined tin [2] - The aluminum market is also anticipated to experience tight supply and strong price performance due to rigid production limits in China and rising energy costs in Europe [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting January 1 will significantly impact China's high-carbon industries, particularly steel and aluminum exports to the EU, which account for approximately 3.5% of China's total exports to the EU [2][3]. Group 1: Short-term Impact - The short-term pressure from CBAM is manageable, with the initial carbon cost set at a base rate of 2.5%, allowing companies some time to adapt [3]. - Companies that have not undertaken energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations will face the most significant challenges, especially those relying on default values for carbon emissions reporting [2][3]. - The default emission values set by the EU are particularly high for Chinese products, creating a barrier for exports [2][3]. Group 2: Carbon Management and Compliance - Exporting companies must shift from relying on default values to establishing their own carbon data monitoring and reporting systems to avoid increased carbon costs [5]. - Over 90% of Chinese companies used global average default values during the trial phase, which will lead to higher costs once country-specific default values are published [5]. - Companies are encouraged to engage with third-party certification bodies to enhance the credibility and compliance of their carbon data [5]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy - In the long term, companies need to focus on low-carbon transformation as a key strategic direction for sustainable development [8]. - The expansion of CBAM to include 180 downstream products by 2028 will increase the complexity of carbon footprint calculations, necessitating a comprehensive approach to carbon management across the supply chain [8]. - Companies should evaluate potential partners based on their carbon data transparency and low-carbon transition plans to ensure compliance and competitiveness [8]. Group 4: External Environment and Policy Recommendations - There is a call for the improvement of the domestic carbon market and the introduction of quota auction mechanisms to create a more competitive environment for companies [9]. - Diplomatic efforts are suggested to negotiate with the EU for recognition of China's carbon pricing, which could alleviate some of the carbon cost burdens on Chinese exporters [9]. - The Chinese government aims to maintain fair trade practices and protect the interests of its enterprises while addressing global climate change challenges [9].

Group 1 - Guangxi has established the "Nandan Key Metal Loan" financial product to address financing challenges faced by key metal enterprises in technology research, production operations, and project expansion, promoting high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of the industry [2] - The first "Financial Benefit Enterprise - Nandan Key Metal Loan" was issued to Southern Nonferrous Metals Co., with a credit increase of 400 million yuan and a loan of 150 million yuan, saving the company 1.5 million yuan in financing costs [2] - The financial services in Guangxi are perceived positively by many business leaders, attributing this to supportive policies and a moderately loose monetary policy that has effectively supported stable growth in the real economy [2][3] Group 2 - In 2025, Guangxi is guiding funds to key projects and sectors such as technology innovation and small and micro enterprises, focusing on five areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [3] - The "Guangxi Financial Benefit Enterprise Three-Year Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims to enhance financial support for the real economy by optimizing financial tools and strengthening the coordination between fiscal and financial policies [3] Group 3 - The Guangxi branch of the China Development Bank has issued over 360 billion yuan in infrastructure loans during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supporting major projects and local economic development [4] - Guangxi Beibu Gulf Bank plans to invest at least 35 billion yuan in various credit assets over the next five years to accelerate the development of the Nandan key metal high-quality development comprehensive experimental zone [4] Group 4 - Guangxi Liuzhou Steel Group successfully issued the first technology innovation bond in the interbank bond market, providing a new model for traditional manufacturing transformation and financing [5] - The Agricultural Bank of Nanning helped a national-level "little giant" enterprise, Nanning Chuxin Integrated Circuit Design Co., by providing an 8 million yuan loan through innovative financial products [6] Group 5 - By the end of 2025, Guangxi's financial institutions had issued 165.04 billion yuan in financial benefit loans, benefiting 63,400 business entities and reducing financing costs by 1.76 billion yuan [7] - The financial benefit policies in Guangxi have been recognized as an excellent case for promoting financing channels and have been included in national publicity efforts [7] Group 6 - The "Guangxi Financial Benefit Enterprise Three-Year Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims to coordinate 7.5 billion yuan in various fiscal funds, driving over 600 billion yuan in interest-subsidized loans, over 100 billion yuan in guarantee subsidies, and over 300 billion yuan in bond issuance by 2027 [10]

Major Events - Defu Technology announced the termination of the acquisition of 100% equity in Luxembourg Copper Foil due to additional restrictions imposed by the Luxembourg Ministry of Economy, with a contract deposit of €17.4047 million to be fully refunded within 10 working days after termination [1] - China Nonferrous Mining expects a total copper production of approximately 484,000 tons in 2026, including 134,000 tons of cathode copper and 350,000 tons of crude/anode copper, with a decrease in crude/anode copper production due to planned maintenance [3] - Huadong Medicine's subsidiary, Zhejiang Daor Biotechnology, has its DR10624 injection included in the breakthrough therapy designation list for severe hypertriglyceridemia, with clinical research approvals from China CDE and the US FDA [4] Performance - Xiantan Co. reported chicken product sales revenue of CNY 530 million in December 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.41% and a sales volume of 55,100 tons [5] - Jinzizi Liquor expects to report a net loss for the fiscal year 2025, although the loss is anticipated to narrow compared to the previous year [6] - Dechang Co. forecasts a net profit of CNY 160 million to CNY 200 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 51% to 61% [7] Stock Suspension and Resumption - Jiamei Packaging's stock will resume trading on January 12, 2026, after a price increase of 230.48% from December 17, 2025, to January 6, 2026, leading to a temporary suspension for investigation [8] - Yanjing Co. continues to suspend trading due to uncertainties related to asset acquisition plans, with an expected disclosure of the transaction plan by January 19, 2026 [9]