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有色:估值与交易间的博弈
2025-11-24 01:46
Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is currently experiencing a phase of price consolidation for industrial and precious metals, with limited upward momentum expected in the short term. [1][2] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are projected to shift towards a shortage in the coming year, making them worthwhile investments. [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - **Short-term Price Outlook**: Industrial metals like copper and aluminum, as well as gold, are expected to remain in a consolidation phase for the next two months, lacking strong price increase momentum. [1][2] - **Mid-term Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance for copper and aluminum is anticipated to be skewed towards shortage next year, suggesting a potential price increase. [1][2] - **Gold Price Forecast**: Gold is expected to oscillate above $4,000, with a need for volatility to decrease to 15-20 for stability confirmation. [1][3][5] - **Silver Price Outlook**: Silver is likely to fluctuate around $50, pending liquidity easing and economic recovery. [5] - **Copper Demand Drivers**: Approximately 60% of global copper demand is driven by battery cells, AI, and power grid-related sectors. [1][7] - **Aluminum Market Dynamics**: The global supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow less than 2%, while demand is projected to increase by 2.3% to 2.4%, leading to a supply-demand imbalance. [2][9] Important but Overlooked Content - **Macroeconomic Influences**: Recent macroeconomic events, including unexpected unemployment rates and non-farm payroll data, have led to uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. [4] - **Impact of AI on Metal Demand**: While AI technology is expected to marginally increase copper demand, its overall impact on the market remains limited. [10] - **Lithium Market Trends**: The lithium carbonate market is projected to experience a 75% increase in demand in the energy storage sector next year, although a slight oversupply is expected in the short term. [11][12] - **Investment Strategy**: The current strategy suggests waiting for better trading opportunities, as many companies in the sector have attractive valuations despite the market's volatility. [13] Conclusion - The non-ferrous metals sector is poised for potential growth, particularly in copper and aluminum, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging technologies. Investors are advised to remain patient and strategically position themselves for future opportunities. [1][2][13]
恒指三季度季检结果出炉!信达生物染蓝 成份股增加至89只
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 10:35
Group 1 - Hang Seng Index will include Innovent Biologics (01801), increasing the number of constituent stocks from 88 to 89 [1][4] - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will include China Hongqiao (01378), Innovent Biologics, and Yum China (09987), while New Energy (02688) and New Oriental-S (09901) will be removed, maintaining a total of 50 constituent stocks [3][5] - Hang Seng Technology Index will include Leapmotor (09863), while ASMPT (00522) will be removed, keeping the number of constituent stocks at 30 [7][9] Group 2 - Hang Seng Composite Index will include FWD Group (01828), Hesai Technology-W (02525), Aux Group (02580), Geekplus Technology-W (02590), Yino Pharma (02591), and Chery Automobile (09973), increasing the number of constituent stocks from 503 to 509 [10][11][12]
恒邦股份:在冶炼过程中,稀散金属是复杂金精矿的伴生产品,毛利率较高,增加了公司的利润弹性
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-20 15:32
Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on enhancing its profitability through continuous optimization of its business structure, particularly in its core smelting operations which yield higher profit margins from by-products like rare metals [1] Group 1 - The smelting business is identified as the company's core profit-generating segment [1] - Rare metals, as by-products of complex gold concentrates, contribute to higher profit margins, increasing the company's profit elasticity [1] - The company is actively implementing measures to improve its gross profit margin [1]
11月19日LME金属库存及注销仓单数据
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 09:37
Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 50 tons, reaching a total of 157,925 tons, reflecting a 0.03% rise [1] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 544,075 tons, showing a 0.37% decline [1] - Zinc inventory rose by 1,000 tons to 46,075 tons, marking a 2.22% increase [1] - Nickel inventory decreased by 1,674 tons to 254,172 tons, a decline of 0.65% [1] - Tin inventory fell by 50 tons to 3,065 tons, representing a 1.61% decrease [1] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warrants - Registered copper warrants totaled 148,450 tons, with a cancellation rate of 6.00% [2] - Registered aluminum warrants were at 484,800 tons, with a cancellation rate of 10.89% [2] - Registered zinc warrants reached 42,475 tons, with a cancellation rate of 7.81% [2] - Registered nickel warrants were 244,476 tons, with a cancellation rate of 3.81% [2] - Registered tin warrants stood at 2,995 tons, with a cancellation rate of 2.28% [2] Group 3: Specific Warehouse Inventory Changes - The largest copper inventory was at Changxing with 68,925 tons, an increase of 300 tons [4] - The largest aluminum inventory was at Port Klang with 355,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [6] - The largest zinc inventory was at Kaohsiung with 9,450 tons, an increase of 800 tons [10] - The largest tin inventory was at Changxing with 3,065 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [12] - The largest nickel inventory was at Singapore with 76,752 tons, unchanged [14]
浩通科技:申请广州期货交易所铂、钯期货指定交割厂库的公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-19 13:35
Core Viewpoint - The company, Haotong Technology, has announced its intention to apply for the qualification of designated delivery warehouses for platinum and palladium futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which is expected to enhance its risk resistance and market competitiveness while improving profitability [2]. Group 1 - The company will hold the seventh board meeting on November 19, 2025, to review the proposal for applying for designated delivery warehouse qualifications [2]. - The application aims to integrate the spot market, futures market, and delivery warehouses, thereby strengthening the company's overall market position [2]. - The management has been authorized to submit the application materials and handle related matters [2].
浩通科技(301026.SZ)申请广州期货交易所铂、钯期货指定交割厂库
智通财经网· 2025-11-19 09:43
Core Viewpoint - The company, Haotong Technology, has approved a proposal to apply for designated delivery warehouse qualifications for platinum and palladium futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1] Group 1 - The board of directors has reviewed and passed the proposal regarding the application for designated delivery warehouse qualifications [1] - The company will authorize its management to submit the application materials and handle other related matters [1]
11月18日LME金属库存及注销仓单数据
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-19 09:33
Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventories for various metals, highlighting significant fluctuations in stock levels and registration rates across different locations [1][2][4][5][13]. Inventory Changes - **Copper**: The total inventory increased to 157,875 tons, with a rise of 17,375 tons or 12.37% from the previous day. Registered warrants rose by 12.60% to 148,150 tons, while the cancellation rate was 6.16% [1][2][4]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory decreased to 546,075 tons, down by 2,000 tons or 0.36%. Registered warrants fell by 6.02% to 490,775 tons, with a significant increase in cancellations by 113.93% to 55,300 tons, resulting in a cancellation rate of 10.13% [1][2][5]. - **Zinc**: The inventory rose to 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons or 3.56%. Registered warrants increased by 3.62% to 41,550 tons, with a cancellation rate of 7.82% [1][2][9]. - **Nickel**: The inventory decreased to 255,846 tons, down by 1,986 tons or 0.77%. Registered warrants were at 244,452 tons, with a cancellation rate of 4.45% [1][2][13]. - **Tin**: The inventory increased to 3,115 tons, up by 60 tons or 1.96%. Registered warrants were at 2,995 tons, with a cancellation rate of 3.85% [1][2][11]. Location-Specific Changes - **Copper Locations**: Significant increases in inventory were noted in locations such as Kaohsiung (+8,275 tons) and Hla (+7,525 tons), while Rotterdam saw a decrease of 100 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Locations**: The largest inventory drop was in Port Klang, which decreased by 2,000 tons, while other locations like Kaohsiung and Rotterdam maintained stable levels [5]. - **Zinc Locations**: Notable increases were observed in Singapore (+50 tons) and Kaohsiung (+1,275 tons), while Port Klang remained unchanged [9]. - **Tin Locations**: The largest increase was in Port Klang, which rose by 60 tons, while other locations showed minimal changes [11]. - **Nickel Locations**: The most significant drop occurred in Kaohsiung, which decreased by 2,238 tons, while Rotterdam saw a slight increase of 252 tons [13].
浩通科技:申请广州期货交易所铂、钯期货指定交割厂库
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-19 09:32
Core Viewpoint - Haotong Technology (301026.SZ) has approved the application for designated delivery warehouses for platinum and palladium futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which is expected to enhance the company's risk resistance and market competitiveness, thereby improving profitability [1] Group 1 - The seventh board of directors' tenth meeting approved the proposal to apply for designated delivery warehouses for platinum and palladium futures [1] - The company is authorized to submit application materials and handle related matters [1] - This application aims to integrate the spot market, futures market, and delivery warehouses, enhancing the company's overall operational capabilities [1]
广发早知道:汇总版-20251119
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 02:29
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday, with the TMT sector rising against the trend and the pro-cyclical sectors experiencing a collective decline. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The central bank's net investment may increase, but if the net investment is less than expected, the tightness of the capital market may continue this week. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for long - term bonds [5][7]. - The precious metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - The shipping index (European line) showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term and rise in shock in the short term [11][12]. - The copper market showed a shock operation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in the demand side and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [12][16]. - The alumina market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on whether the production reduction of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [17][19]. - The aluminum market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the changes in downstream start - up, inventory depletion rhythm, and overseas policies [21][22]. - The aluminum alloy market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion process [22][24]. - The zinc market showed a shock adjustment. It is recommended to focus on whether there is an improvement in demand and interest - rate cut expectations [24][27]. - The tin market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [27][31]. - The nickel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][33]. - The stainless - steel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of steel mills and the price of nickel iron [34][37]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [38][41]. - The polysilicon market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [42][43]. - The industrial silicon market showed a small - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][45]. - The steel market showed a weak trend. It is recommended to try short positions. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge [46][48]. - The iron ore market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. - The coking coal market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. - The coke market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - The meal market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [57][60]. - The pig market showed a sign of stabilization. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A - share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. The TMT sector rose against the trend, and the pro - cyclical sectors declined significantly [2][3]. - News: Domestically, China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan discussed economic and monetary policies with the prime minister [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market was stable, and the central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - Operation suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. If there is a deep decline, consider a bull spread of put options [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: The main contracts of treasury futures all rose, and the yield of major interest - bearing bonds changed little [5]. - Capital: The central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity was tight [5]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations in the short term [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US labor market remained resilient, and the US Treasury announced relevant data. The US stock market fell, and precious metals bottomed out and rebounded [8][9]. - Outlook: In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - Capital: The outflow trend of gold and silver ETFs may gradually weaken [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was different [12]. - Logic: The futures market showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term [12]. - Operation suggestion: Rise in shock in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. - Macro: The US government shutdown affected the market liquidity and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [13]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper decreased in October [14]. - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and the downstream demand was resilient [15]. - Inventory: The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [15]. - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals support the copper price. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [16][17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: The price of alumina decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed [17]. - Supply: The production of alumina increased in October, and it is expected to continue to be in a surplus situation in November [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of alumina increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum decreased, and the market trading was inactive [19]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and it is expected to decrease slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum products decreased, and the demand was under pressure [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was difficult to deplete [22]. - Logic: The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up, inventory depletion, and overseas policies [21][22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy decreased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased in October, and it is expected to continue to decline in November [23]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy was weak, and the inventory digestion was slow [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy decreased slightly [23]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to focus on scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory depletion [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the supply pressure of refined zinc was relieved [25]. - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was basically stable, and the demand was not strong [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is stable, and the zinc price will fluctuate. It is recommended to focus on demand improvement and interest - rate cut expectations [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin decreased slightly, and the market trading was average [27]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in September, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder decreased in October, and the inventory increased slightly [29]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand in South China is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [31]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [31]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel decreased significantly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel decreased in October, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [32]. - Logic: The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian policies [33]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel was stable, and the market trading was inactive [34]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased [34]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel decreased in November, and the supply pressure was still there [35][36]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [36]. - Logic: The policy and macro - driving forces were insufficient, and the price was expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on steel mill production reduction and nickel iron price [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [38]. Carbonate Lithium - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the market trading was light [38]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in October, and it is expected to continue to increase [39]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was optimistic, and the inventory decreased [39][40]. - Logic: The price fluctuated in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the resumption of production of large enterprises and the marginal changes in demand [41]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [42]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The price of polysilicon was stable [42]. - Supply: The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November and increase slightly in December [42]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [43]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [43]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: The price of industrial silicon was stable [44]. - Supply: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November [44]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline, and the inventory decreased [44][45]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [45]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to operate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, and the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit of cold - rolled coils was the highest [46]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased, and the production of five major steel products decreased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand was weak, and the export was at a high level. The apparent demand decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils needed to be further reduced [48]. - View: The price of steel was stable, and the price of coking coal decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly [49]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures increased, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [49]. - Basis: The optimal delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [49]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal increased, and the demand for iron ore was high [49]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival at ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased [50]. - View: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The price of coking coal futures decreased significantly, and the spot price also showed a downward trend [51]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal increased [51][53]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased, and the steel mill's replenishment demand was weak [52][53]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [52]. - View: The price of coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Coke - Futures and spot: The price of coke futures decreased, and the spot price was expected to be stable in the short term [55][56]. - Profit: The average profit of coking plants was negative [55]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [55]. - Demand: The demand for coke was affected by the increase in hot - metal output and the decrease in steel mill profit [56]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [56]. - View: The price of coke is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal was up and down, and there was no transaction [57][58]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was at the lower end of the expected range. China purchased US soybeans [58][59]. - Outlook: The US soybean demand improved, but the export demand was still weak. The domestic soybean meal supply was loose. It is expected to fluctuate widely [59][60]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price of pigs oscillated, and there were signs of stabilization [61].
首席点评:小非农有所改善,美股持续回落
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US stock market continues to decline despite an improvement in the "small non - farm" data. The international economic and trade order is impacted by high tariffs and other barriers. [1] - The stock index market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. The technology sector is a long - term focus. The domestic glass and纯碱 markets are in a process of inventory digestion, and the crude oil market has a downward trend. [2][3] 3. Summary by Category A. Main News - **International News**: Trump claims to have selected the next Fed Chair candidate, and the short - listed candidates include current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. [6] - **Domestic News**: In October, the unemployment rates of the non - student urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 are 17.3%, 7.2%, and 3.8% respectively. [1][7] - **Industry News**: After Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Tianjin, Nanjing and Suzhou in Jiangsu Province will carry out real - estate trust property registration pilot projects. [8] B. Performance of Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: US indices decline. The domestic stock index market had a correction, with the media and computer sectors leading the rise, and coal and power equipment sectors leading the fall. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The technology sector is a long - term direction, and the market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. [2][11] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remain weak, with last week's inventory at 5962 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 54 million heavy cases. Soda ash futures slightly decline, with last week's inventory at 154.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. [2][17] - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rises 0.74%. An attack on a port in Russia causes it to suspend oil exports, equivalent to 2% of global supply. US refined oil demand is lower than last year, and the number of online drilling rigs shows a long - term downward trend. [3][13] C. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The long - term trend is positive, with a focus on the technology sector. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and external funds may flow in. [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rise slightly. The central bank's open - market operations and the economic situation at home and abroad affect the bond market. The market liquidity is expected to be reasonably abundant. [12] - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse, affected by supply and demand factors. [3][13] - **Methanol**: It rises slightly at night. The inventory is accumulating, and the short - term trend is weak. [14] - **Rubber**: It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, affected by supply and demand and weather conditions. [15] - **Polyolefins**: Futures decline. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by the overall market. It may continue to fluctuate at a low level. [16] - **Metals** - **Copper**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the long - term price may be supported by the supply - demand gap. [19] - **Zinc**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and the price may fluctuate within a range. [20] - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend may correct, depending on factors such as supply, steel de - stocking speed, and iron - water production. [21] - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: It adjusts weakly at night. The US soybean production and inventory data are mixed, and the domestic market is in a loose pattern. [22] - **Oils and Fats**: They run strongly at night. The palm oil market has different supply - demand situations, and the soybean oil is supported. The rapeseed oil may fluctuate. [23] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to decline, while the domestic market may fluctuate within a range. [24][25] - **Cotton**: The price is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. [26] - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price fluctuates and declines. The price support in November is uncertain, and the 02 contract has limited upward space. [27]