Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce aims to strengthen traditional energy cooperation with Arab countries while expanding collaboration in renewable energy sectors such as photovoltaics, wind power, and green hydrogen [1] - The upcoming 7th China-Arab States Expo will be held from August 28 to 31 in Yinchuan, Ningxia, with a focus on innovation, green development, and prosperity [2] - In 2024, the trade volume between China and Arab countries is projected to reach $407.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, maintaining China's position as the largest trading partner of Arab nations [1] Group 2 - Chinese enterprises are actively investing in various production projects in Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, including metal smelting, building materials manufacturing, cotton spinning, and aquaculture [1] - There is a growing trend of mutual investment, with Arab sovereign wealth funds and companies investing in China's petrochemical, new energy, and technology sectors [1] - The economic structures of China and Arab countries are complementary, with significant potential for future cooperation in traditional sectors like energy, agriculture, and infrastructure, as well as emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, high-end equipment manufacturing, and green low-carbon technologies [1]

Summary of Industrial Silicon Price Trends Conference Industry Overview - The industrial silicon demand is primarily driven by polysilicon, with production capacity increasing from 1.08 million tons in 2021 to an expected 3 million tons by the end of 2024, and projected to reach 3.3 million tons by 2025 [1][3] - The recent rebound in industrial silicon prices is attributed to supply reductions (notably from Hoshine Silicon Industry), increased demand (growth in organic silicon and polysilicon), inventory structure changes, and market sentiment [1][4] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply and demand for industrial silicon show a marginal improvement, with supply tightening due to Hoshine's production cuts, despite some increases in Yunnan and Sichuan regions [5][6] - From June to July, significant destocking occurred, reducing total inventory from 350,000 tons to 250,000 tons, with total industry inventory around 800,000 tons [1][6] - The main demand sources for industrial silicon are polysilicon (43%), organic silicon (25.97%), and aluminum alloys (15%), with exports accounting for about 15% [1][8] Market Sentiment and Price Influences - Market sentiment significantly impacts industrial silicon prices, with expectations of anti-competitive policies leading polysilicon companies to agree on selling at no less than cost, driving prices up [1][4] - Coal costs are a critical factor influencing industrial silicon prices, showing a correlation with coking coal price trends [1][7] Industry Changes and Future Outlook - The polysilicon industry is undergoing a capacity consolidation phase, expected to complete by the end of September, which may lead to price increases and production decreases [11][12] - By the end of 2025, China's actual industrial silicon capacity is projected to be around 8 million tons, with nominal capacity at 7 million tons, indicating a potential severe oversupply [13][15] - Historical trends show that industrial silicon prices typically bottom out with capacity reductions, but currently, no such reductions are observed despite low prices [14][15] Policy and Regulatory Impact - There are ongoing discussions about eliminating small furnaces (below 12,500 kVA), which could significantly impact the industry if implemented, potentially reducing total capacity by up to 5% [18][19] - The effectiveness of market-driven measures to eliminate outdated capacity is questioned, particularly in regions where small furnaces produce specialized products [27][31] Profitability and Cost Structure - The cost structure varies significantly across regions, with cash costs in Xinjiang around 6,800 RMB/ton, while costs in Yunnan and Sichuan can reach up to 10,000 RMB/ton [24][25] - The profitability outlook for the third quarter is positive, with expectations of turning losses into profits if prices exceed 10,000 RMB/ton [29] Key Focus Areas - Key areas to monitor in the coming months include Hoshine's production resumption and the potential impact of small furnace elimination policies on supply-demand balance and pricing [20] Additional Insights - The organic silicon market is rapidly developing, with significant applications in photovoltaics and electric vehicles, and is expected to maintain stable growth [10] - The integration of polysilicon production is anticipated to stabilize prices and improve overall market conditions [11][12]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 24 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周三，早盘 A 股震荡起伏，午后冲高回落。截至收盘，上证指数涨 0.01%，报 3582.30 点。深成指跌 0.37%，创业板指跌 0.01%，沪深 300 涨 0.02%、上证 50 涨 0.32%，中证 500 跌 0.27%、中证 100 ...

Group 1: Metal Sector Insights - The domestic anti-involution trend is intensifying, coupled with recent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, leading to a favorable overall performance in the metal sector [1] - The price of polysilicon has successfully continued to recover, boosting market confidence, which has now spilled over into lithium carbonate and alumina [1] - Lithium, cobalt, and rare earths have found price bottoms from a cost perspective, with recent independent factors triggering price increases: lithium due to stricter mining rights reviews, cobalt due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and rare earths driven by strategic enhancements and shortage expectations [1] - In the basic metals uptrend, aluminum's focus is on dividends, while copper's focus is on growth potential; additionally, attention is recommended for the processing sector [1] - The trading logic for steel may shift from primarily benefiting from raw material discounts to a combination of supply contraction and raw material price declines improving industry conditions [1] Group 2: 3D Printing and PLA Industry - The consumer-grade desktop 3D printing equipment is rapidly emerging, presenting transformative opportunities for related materials, including PEI for printing devices and commonly used extrusion materials like PLA/PETG [2] - Materials suitable for specific needs, such as TPU/ABS/PA/PPS/carbon fiber composites, as well as resins and photoinitiators for light-curing processes, are expected to see continued development [2] - Attention is recommended for companies within the PLA-related industry chain, while PETG, TPU, nylon, and PPS categories are also anticipated to grow [2] Group 3: Power Generation and Energy Storage - The rapid development of renewable energy necessitates the construction of controllable power sources, primarily coal, hydro, nuclear, and energy storage [3] - Current conditions indicate that safety redundancy capacity is continually decreasing, making the advancement of controllable power source construction urgent [3] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual demand for coal power installed capacity is estimated at 60-80 GW, which significantly differs from the current market expectation of 30-40 GW [3] - The construction of controllable effective capacity is expected to bring performance elasticity to related equipment companies [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights that most commodities have risen, emphasizing the importance of policy determination [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below the 200-day moving average, currently at 4.35%, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced the listing of propylene futures contracts with a benchmark price of 6350 CNY per ton [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices have primarily risen, with the construction materials sector leading gains while the banking sector lagged [2] - The market's trading volume reached 1.73 trillion CNY, with a decrease in financing balance by 1.99 billion CNY to 1.889167 trillion CNY [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3 - The average daily pig iron output has increased by 26,300 tons week-on-week, marking the largest weekly increase in recent weeks [3] - Coking coal inventory at steel and coking plants has risen to 17.2 million tons, marking a four-week consecutive increase [3] - The market anticipates further policy support, with potential supply constraints due to enhanced safety and environmental regulations ahead of the September 3 military parade [3] Group 4 - Gold and silver have strengthened due to rising market risk aversion ahead of new tariff deadlines, alongside a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [4] - Recent economic data suggests that the impact of tariff policies may be less severe than previously feared, but caution is advised regarding potential future tariff threats [4] - The long-term support for gold remains strong due to continued purchases by the People's Bank of China [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative" due to increased uncertainty and expected prolonged high interest rates [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% [6] - The National Energy Administration reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in June, with a cumulative increase of 3.7% for the first half of the year [7]

Core Insights - Zhejiang's economic transformation is marked by a shift from an external trade province to an open strong province, with significant growth in foreign trade and investment [1][3][8] - The province has successfully integrated into global supply chains through both inbound and outbound investments, enhancing its industrial structure and competitiveness [4][5][6][7] Economic Development - Since the opening of Ningbo Port in 1979, Zhejiang has seen continuous economic growth, with exports reaching 20 trillion yuan in the first half of 2023 [1][8] - The province's actual foreign investment utilization ranked fourth nationally in 2016, and it is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan in import and export scale by 2024 [1][3] Industrial Restructuring - The entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 prompted Zhejiang to address structural challenges in its economy, leading to a focus on attracting foreign investment for technology and management [3][4] - Companies like Jack Sewing Machine and China Jushi have successfully expanded their market presence through strategic acquisitions and technological advancements [4][6] Global Integration - Zhejiang's enterprises are increasingly "going global," with significant investments in overseas markets, such as Huayou Cobalt's ventures in the Democratic Republic of Congo [7][8] - The province has established a robust framework for international trade, exemplified by the success of the Yiwu International Trade City and the "Yi Xin Ou" China-Europe freight train service [16][17] Innovation and Branding - Zhejiang's focus on innovation has led to the emergence of high-quality brands, with a notable increase in exports of self-owned brand products [12][11] - The province has seen a rise in the number of enterprises recognized as national manufacturing champions, with 233 such companies projected by 2024 [10][11] Infrastructure Development - The integration of Ningbo and Zhoushan ports has significantly enhanced Zhejiang's logistics capabilities, making it a key hub for international trade [14][15] - The establishment of the Zhejiang Free Trade Zone has facilitated smoother trade processes and attracted foreign investment [20][21] Talent Attraction - Zhejiang has implemented policies to attract talent, resulting in a significant influx of skilled professionals and fostering a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem [29][30] - The province's commitment to creating a favorable business environment has been recognized as a critical factor in its economic success [23][25]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.32% at 44,342.19 points, the S&P 500 down 0.01% at 6,296.79 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.05% at 20,895.66 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Netflix down over 5% and Amazon up over 1% [1] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with JD.com up over 3%, Alibaba, Bilibili, and NetEase up over 2%, and Li Auto up over 1% [1] European Market Performance - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.33% at 24,289.51 points, France's CAC40 up 0.01% at 7,822.67 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.22% at 8,992.12 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.30% at $3,355.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.32% at $38.43 per ounce [1] - International oil prices slightly declined, with the main US oil contract down 0.30% at $66.03 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.42% at $69.23 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index fell 0.18% to 98.46, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose by 37 basis points to 7.1810 [1] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 3.32 basis points at 3.8628%, the 3-year yield down 3.92 basis points at 3.8329%, the 5-year yield down 4.92 basis points at 3.9395%, the 10-year yield down 3.98 basis points at 4.4095%, and the 30-year yield down 2.49 basis points at 4.9823% [1] - European bond yields collectively rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.9 basis points at 4.672%, France's 10-year yield up 1.9 basis points at 3.396%, Germany's 10-year yield up 2.1 basis points at 2.693%, Italy's 10-year yield up 1.6 basis points at 3.548%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2 basis points at 3.308% [1]

LME有色金属库存日报 1. 铜库存122175吨，增加25吨。 2. 铝库存430700吨，增加3500吨。 3. 镍库存207576吨，增加294吨。 4. 锌库存119100吨，减少2375吨。 5. 铅库存268400吨，减少2550吨。 6. 锡库存1935吨，减少100吨。 金十期货7月18日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属库存及变化如下： ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices experienced fluctuations and closed with slight declines: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.22%, and ChiNext down 0.22%. The STAR Market 50 Index rose by 0.14%. Over 3,100 stocks in the two markets rose, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.44 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector stood out, with notable gains from companies such as Guangshentang (300436.SZ) up 16.55%, Iwubio (300357.SZ) up 15.9%, and others like Qianhong Pharmaceutical (002550.SZ) and Frontier Biotech (688221.SH) also experiencing significant increases. The National Healthcare Security Administration recently initiated the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, focusing on mature "old drugs" while excluding innovative drugs from the procurement process [2]. Group 3: Robotics and Automation - The robotics and reducer sectors saw a collective surge, with Weichuang New Materials (688585.SH) recording six consecutive 20%涨停. The founder of ZhiYuan Robotics plans to acquire 29.99% of Weichuang New Materials at 7.78 yuan per share, potentially gaining control of 66.99% of the company. This move is perceived as a "backdoor listing" in the wind power sector [3]. Group 4: Textile Sector - The textile sector also showed strength, with companies like Jujie Microfiber (300819.SZ) and Lianfa Shares (002394.SZ) hitting涨停. CITIC Securities forecasts steady growth in shoe and clothing consumption by Q2 2025, with major domestic sports brands expected to achieve single-digit growth. The textile manufacturing sector is anticipated to benefit from recent tariff developments, alleviating concerns over tariff uncertainties [4]. Group 5: Declining Sectors - Sectors such as banking, insurance, precious metals, and industrial metals faced declines, with companies like China Ping An (601318.SH) and Xiamen Bank (601187.SH) experiencing downturns. The steel and coal sectors also weakened, with Liugang Co. (601003.SH) dropping over 9% and Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (600121.SH) down over 2% [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polysilicon [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Logs [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Corn, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Views - In the short term, liquidity and market sentiment are acceptable, but there are few substantial positive factors at home and abroad. With the recent significant reduction in the discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Market uncertainties remain. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term, and silver prices should be wary of the risk of a fall after a rise [1]. - The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a re - flow of copper from non - US regions, posing a risk of compensatory decline in Shanghai and London copper prices [1]. - High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, while low inventories support aluminum prices, resulting in a weak oscillating trend [1]. - Domestic anti - involution policies boost the expectation of supply - side reform, leading to a stable recovery in alumina prices [1]. - Tariff disturbances are intensifying, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals continues to pressure zinc prices. Attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - With macro uncertainties remaining, nickel prices are oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - For stainless steel futures, it is advisable to focus on short - term trading, sell on rallies for hedging, and seize the opportunity of positive basis trading. Pay attention to raw material changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - The macro pricing of tin prices has increased, but the short - term fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Attention should be paid to the subsequent meeting of the Manxiang mining area [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply shows a pattern of decreasing in the north and increasing in the south. The demand for polysilicon has increased marginally, but there are expectations of production cuts later. The market sentiment is high [1]. - For polysilicon, there are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and the market sentiment is high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has not cut production, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the strong performance of furnace materials provides valuation support, but the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are showing marginal weakness [1]. - For iron ore, short - term production has increased, demand is acceptable, supply and demand are relatively loose, and cost support is insufficient, so prices are under pressure [1]. - For ferrosilicon, the market sentiment has improved. In the short term, supply is stable, demand is resilient, and inventory is being depleted, providing price support. However, in the medium term, supply - demand surplus makes it difficult for prices to rise [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is expected to increase, direct and terminal demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is advisable to focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. - For palm oil and rapeseed oil, relevant reports are neutral to bearish, and short - term oscillations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil, and rapeseed oil is bearish due to the expected entry of Australian rapeseed [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate, so domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - For sugar, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - For corn, there are many short - term policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction volume and transaction price of imported corn and whether the aged rice auction will be implemented. The low wheat - corn price difference suppresses the upward space of corn prices [1]. - For soybean meal, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure continues to pressure the spot basis, which is expected to oscillate at a low level. The downside space of the US market is limited, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be firm. It is advisable to buy on dips [1]. - For pulp, after the macro - level positive factors, the price has risen, but the spot price has not followed up significantly, so it is not recommended to chase up [1]. - For live pigs, with the continuous recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing. The futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient inventory and a large discount to the spot price. The short - term spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the futures price remains stable [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led the market to return to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term strong consumption in the peak season in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and the inventory has increased slightly [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and some butadiene units are under maintenance with limited ship - cargo supply, providing certain support [1]. - For PTA, the supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the spot market is becoming more abundant. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the coal price has risen slightly, the future arrival volume is large, but the overseas supply has shrunk, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1]. - For short - fiber, the number of registered warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factory maintenance has increased. Under the high basis, the cost is closely correlated [1]. - For styrene, the pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load has recovered, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - For fertilizer, domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the export expectation is improving in the second half of the year [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is good, there are many maintenance activities, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For PVC, the price of coking coal has risen, the market sentiment is good, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For chlor - alkali, the maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the liquid - chlorine price has rebounded, the comprehensive profit has been repaired, and the number of current warehouse receipts is small. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - For LPG, the crude - oil support is insufficient, the combustion and chemical demand are in the seasonal off - season, the spot price is oscillating downward, and the PG price is oscillating narrowly [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, there is a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation. It is expected that the freight rate will peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks' shipping capacity deployment is relatively sufficient [1]