Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Soybean Meal: Stable US Soybeans, Fluctuating Dalian Soybean Meal" and was released on August 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - The analyst is Wu Guangjing, with an investment consulting qualification number of Z0011992 and an email of wuguangjing@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Futures and Spot Price Information Futures - DCE Soybean 2511 closed at 3927 yuan/ton during the day session, down 8 yuan (-0.20%), and 3924 yuan/ton at night, down 9 yuan (-0.23%) - DCE Soybean Meal 2601 closed at 3039 yuan/ton during the day session, down 6 yuan (-0.20%), and 3037 yuan/ton at night, down 9 yuan (-0.30%) - CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1048.25 cents/bushel, unchanged (+0.00%) - CBOT Soybean Meal 12 closed at 287.8 dollars/short ton, down 0.9 dollars (-0.31%) [2] Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot basis was M2601 + 0/+30, unchanged - In East China, the price was 2990 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with various basis levels and changes as described - In South China, the price was 2970 - 3030 yuan/ton, with different basis levels and changes [2] Group 4: Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 11.6 million tons/day, and the inventory was 98.55 million tons/week [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On August 28, CBOT soybean futures closed with mixed results, with the benchmark contract barely changing. US soybean export sales improved, but Chinese demand remained a limiting factor. As of August 21, 2025, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season decreased by 189,200 tons, while the net sales in the 2025/26 season were 1,372,600 tons, a new high for the new crop and higher than the previous week and market expectations [2][4] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the main contract futures prices on the reporting day [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton rose 0.9% to 67.28 cents per pound on Thursday, while CF601 fell 0.18% to 14,070 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 1,889 lots to 510,700 lots. In the international market, attention should be paid to macro and weather changes, and the time for India to import cotton duty - free has been extended to December. In the US, the dollar index was weakly volatile, and the center of the US cotton futures price moved up. Domestically, the position of Zhengzhou cotton increased by nearly 60,000 lots last night. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed much. As time passes, the market focus will shift to new cotton, with limited supply - demand contradictions and a slightly lower expected inventory - to - sales ratio. After the new cotton is launched, there is a pressure of high - yield and support from the downstream "scrambling for purchase" expectation. It is expected that the short - term Zhengzhou cotton futures price will mainly run in a firm and volatile manner [2]. - Sugar: As of the week ending August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 72 from 70 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 194,800 tons to 2.7221 million tons, a decrease of 6.67%. Domestic spot prices continued to decline slightly, and the position of the futures main contract decreased for three consecutive trading days. The raw sugar futures price continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is believed that the domestic futures price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend, and investors should wait patiently for trading opportunities [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged from the previous day; the main basis was 1,266, down 1 from the previous day; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,240 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan per ton; the national spot price was 15,336 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan per ton [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 spread was 38, up 6 from the previous day; the main basis was 373, up 8 from the previous day; the Nanning spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On August 28, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,720, down 139 from the previous day, with 2 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,240 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,351 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,358 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,458 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.7, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.3, down 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.9, up 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.7, down 0.2 from the previous day [4]. - Sugar: On August 28, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,539, down 367 from the previous day, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipts of the main contracts, etc., but no specific analysis of the charts is given in the text [7][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda ash glass, cotton, and other fields respectively, and have rich research experience and many honors [20][21][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends. Corn is expected to be volatile, with the 11 - month contract under supply pressure but potentially rebounding around the 2200 - 2220 line. Soybean meal is also volatile, affected by factors such as weak US soybean prices, Sino - US talks, and state reserve auctions. Oils are volatile, with prices approaching important support levels. Eggs are in a weakly volatile state, with futures continuing to decline and the spot price affected by supply - side pressure. Pigs are volatile, with the futures market continuing to correct and the spot price showing regional differences [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: This week, the corn 2511 contract increased in position and rose slightly. The spot price was weak, with Northeast corn prices moving towards new - grain prices and continuing to decline. Shandong deep - processing enterprises' corn arrivals increased, and prices were slightly adjusted downwards. The market supply was diverse, but downstream demand was weak. Technically, the 11 - month contract was under supply pressure, but it was approaching the traders' expected storage cost range, with a short - term rebound pressure around 2200 - 2220 [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose, with US weekly export sales higher than expected. In Brazil, the 25/26 soybean planting in Santa Catarina will start on September 16, with uneven precipitation and higher - than - normal temperatures. In Paraná, the soybean planting area increased by 1%, and the output is expected to increase by 4%. Domestically, the two - meal market was weak, affected by multiple factors. The strategy is short - term trading, waiting for the results of Sino - US talks [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell, but strong export demand and lower - than - expected production limited the decline. Canadian rapeseed production was estimated to increase. Domestically, oil futures prices were weak, and if they break through the important support level, the downward space will open. The strategy is short - term trading [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, egg futures continued to decline. The spot price was also weak, with most prices in the sales areas stable and a few slightly fluctuating. According to the seasonal pattern, egg prices should rebound in late August, but due to supply - side pressure, they continued to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, hog futures continued to correct. The spot price showed regional differences, with a slight increase in the north and a decline in the south. The fundamentals and market sentiment changed little, and the price is expected to be volatile. The main contract has corrected to the lower edge of the shock range, and attention should be paid to whether future demand and market sentiment can boost the market [2]. Market Information - In July 2025, the national industrial feed output was 28.31 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The ex - factory prices of different types of feed showed different trends, and the proportion of corn and soybean meal in feed production was given [3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the addition of new group delivery sub - warehouses and non - group delivery warehouses for live pigs [3]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's delegation visited Canada and the US. China is willing to work with the US to maintain the healthy and stable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [3]. - As of the week of August 20, Argentine farmers sold a certain amount of soybeans in different years, with the total cumulative sales reaching 71.4794 million tons [4]. - The result of the China Grain Reserves Corporation's rapeseed oil bidding procurement on August 28 was a 100% transaction rate [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [6][7][11][15]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [14][17][19][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The short - term may have fluctuations, but the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. The Y2601 contract may have short - term fluctuations, and different strategies are recommended for different types of investors [3]. - The market expects a significant reduction in China's procurement of Canadian rapeseed. The short - term of rapeseed oil may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and import policy dynamics [3]. - The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased in the short - term, and exports are good. The domestic consumption is weak, but the long - term view is still bullish, with short - term adjustment needs [4]. - The prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 have weakened due to increased imports and uncertain Sino - US trade relations. Short - term short - selling operations are recommended [4]. - Rapeseed meal may adjust downward in the short - term, but the downward space is limited due to the expected reduction in subsequent rapeseed procurement [5]. - Corn and corn starch futures prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to reduce short positions at low prices [5]. - The price of soybean No. 1 is under pressure due to the approaching new soybean listing and the continuous state reserve auction. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - The new - season peanuts have an expected increase in production, which exerts pressure on prices. However, the short - term downward space is limited, and it is recommended to reduce short positions [7]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure in the short - term, but there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - term. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [7][8]. - The egg futures price has fallen to a low level. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling, and aggressive investors can consider buying the 11 - contract at low prices [8]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 4145 - 4150 yuan/ton; soybean No. 2 11 - contract is expected to adjust in shock, with a support level of 3600 - 3630 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton; peanut 11 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8100 - 8162 yuan/ton [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 - contract is expected to be bullish in shock, with a support level of 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 01 - contract is expected to adjust in shock, with a support level of 9600 - 9610 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 9998 - 10343 yuan/ton; palm oil 01 - contract is expected to adjust in shock, with a support level of 9074 - 9338 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 9900 - 9990 yuan/ton [11]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 01 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 2980 - 3000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton; rapeseed meal 01 - contract is expected to be bearish in shock, with a support level of 2400 - 2431 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 2632 - 2698 yuan/ton [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a support level of 2100 - 2120 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton; corn starch 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a support level of 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 2580 - 2590 yuan/ton [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Live pig 11 - contract is expected to rebound in shock, with a support level of 13500 - 13750 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton; egg 10 - contract is expected to find the bottom in shock, with a support level of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see, except for the soybean meal 3 - 5 spread, which is recommended for positive arbitrage, and the live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 spreads, which are recommended for positive arbitrage at low prices [12][13]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Different strategies such as short - selling, long - buying, and waiting - and - seeing are recommended for different oil - related and protein - related inter - variety spreads [13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and开机率 (start - up rate) data of different oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans at ports, the inventory and开机率 of soybean meal at oil mills, etc. [18][19] 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory,开机率, and other data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3. Livestock Farming - It provides daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, consumption, inventory, and profit - related data [21][22][23][24] Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices, production, consumption, and other aspects of live pigs and eggs [27][29][30][34] - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of production, exports, inventory, import profit, and price spreads of Malaysian palm oil and domestic palm oil [37][38][41] - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and oil mill开机率 in the United States and China [44][45][46] - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of peanut arrival, shipment, pressing profit, and inventory [51][53] - **Feed** - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and consumption in deep - processing enterprises [55][56][57] - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch futures and spot prices,开机率, and inventory [60][61] - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and pressing profit [62][64][70] - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of soybean growth progress, inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [74][77] Part IV: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - It includes charts of historical volatility of various varieties and the trading volume and open interest of corn options [79][80][82] Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - It includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [86][88][90]

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw an overall increase in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on August 28, with corn December contract closing at $4.10 per bushel, up 4 cents (0.99%) from the previous trading day [1] - Wheat December contract closed at $5.29 per bushel, up 4.75 cents (0.91%), while soybean November contract closed at $10.48 per bushel, up 0.5 cents (0.05%) [1] - The soybean November contract has broken through the previous day's low, indicating potential further downward price momentum, while corn December contract has tested the support level of $4.03 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wheat export sales of 21.3 million bushels, corn export sales of 82.3 million bushels, and soybean export sales of 50.4 million bushels for the week ending August 21 [2] - Cumulative export sales for the current crop year show an increase in wheat by 8.2 million bushels to 445 million bushels, corn by 57.2 million bushels to 2.774 billion bushels, and soybeans by 18.5 million bushels to 1.860 billion bushels [2] Group 3 - Statistics Canada estimates that Canadian wheat production will reach 35.5 million tons and canola production will be 19.9 million tons by 2025 [3]

Core Insights - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on August 28, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.18% to 16.50 cents per pound, while cotton futures rose by 0.90% to 67.28 cents per pound. Conversely, cocoa futures decreased by 1.04% to $7,765 per ton, and coffee futures fell by 2.49% to 375.70 cents per pound [1] Group 1 - Raw sugar futures increased by 0.18% to 16.50 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.90% to 67.28 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures decreased by 1.04% to $7,765 per ton [1] Group 2 - Coffee futures fell by 2.49% to 375.70 cents per pound [1]

每经AI快讯，当地时间8月28日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大 豆期货涨0.07%报1048.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨1.17%报410.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨1.05%报 529.75美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in the international soybean market has improved significantly. The pressure on the supply side has gradually eased, and the carry - over stock provides obvious support at the current price. The domestic soybean market has a high arrival volume and large crushing volume, with obvious inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international sugar price trend. In the oil market, the price of palm oil is supported by the firm price in Indonesia, and the domestic vegetable oil market has different fundamentals. The corn market has different trends at home and abroad, and the pig market supply pressure is expected to improve. The peanut market has a weak downstream consumption, and the egg market has obvious supply - side pressure. The apple market is expected to have a slightly stronger short - term trend, and the cotton - yarn market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][12][19][26][33][39][49][57][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.09% to 1064.5 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.78% to 291.8 dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: Brazil's soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were adjusted; Argentina's soybean planting area from March to May 2026 is expected to decline; domestic soybean inventory increased slightly, and soybean meal inventory increased [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market supply - demand situation has improved, and the domestic market has inventory accumulation pressure [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Long soy and rapeseed meal on dips for far - month contracts; expand the MRM05 spread on dips; buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, and London white sugar price rose [8]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports increased slightly in the first four weeks of August; domestic processed sugar quotes were stable with general transactions; ICE raw sugar futures + options positions changed [9][10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is affected by the international market [12]. - **Position Recommendations**: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the international market with a small - range oscillating trend; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [13][14][15]. Oilseeds - **External Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices changed [17]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in August; the US may exempt Indonesia's palm oil from tariffs; India's vegetable oil industry hopes to cancel tax credit restrictions; Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, and domestic vegetable oil has different fundamentals [19]. - **Trading Strategies**: Consider buying on dips for short - term oil price corrections; expand the P15 spread on dips; wait and see for options [20][22]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures fell [24]. - **Important Information**: South Africa's corn harvest will increase; domestic port corn inventory and shipment volume decreased; corn starch inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: US corn has room for rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on CBOT December corn on dips; go long on 01 corn on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29][30]. Pig - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices rebounded in some regions; piglet and sow prices fell; the national average pork price decreased [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure is expected to improve, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Buy far - month contracts on dips; conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; wait and see for options [36]. Peanut - **Important Information**: The national average peanut price fell; peanut production and oil mill demand are limited; peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [37][38]. - **Logic Analysis**: New - season peanuts are expected to have sufficient supply, and the market is in a short - term bottom - oscillating phase [39][41]. - **Trading Strategies**: 11 and 01 peanut contracts are in a bottom - oscillating phase, and try short - term long on 05 peanut contracts; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [42][43][44]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in main production and sales areas changed; the number of laying hens increased; egg sales volume decreased; inventory increased; egg farming profit improved [46][47][48]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and short - selling can be considered on rallies [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies; short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival; sell out - of - the - money call options [50][51][52]. Apple - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; import and export volume changed; early - maturing apple varieties were on the market, and prices were polarized; apple prices in Shandong were stable, and storage profit decreased [54][55][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term market trend is expected to be slightly stronger [57]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on dips for new - season apples and operate with low - buying and high - selling; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [60][61][62]. Cotton - Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton prices fell [64]. - **Important Information**: US cotton growing conditions improved; India's cotton planting area growth slowed; Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was slower than last year [65][66]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger [67]. - **Trading Strategies**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has changed from loose to tight according to USDA, but the realization of the production cut in some countries is uncertain. In China, the low commercial inventory supports cotton prices in the short - term, yet the new cotton's concentrated listing may bring pressure [2]. - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar production forecast is revised down, and the high import volume in China suppresses sugar prices in the short - term. The sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may have a tail - end rise in the fourth quarter [4][6]. - Regarding pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the terminal demand improvement is limited. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,342 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. In July, Bangladesh imported about 139,000 tons of cotton, a 13.0% increase from June and a 1.2% increase from the same period last year [1]. Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's adjustment of cotton production needs verification, but the US cotton balance sheet may improve, supporting international cotton prices. Domestically, the low commercial inventory supports cotton prices, but the new cotton's concentrated listing may bring pressure [2]. Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the peak - season demand. If the demand improves, cotton prices may be strong before the new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure [2]. Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,620 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast was revised down by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons [2][3]. Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil is offset by low cane quality, restricting the decline. For Zhengzhou sugar, the high import volume suppresses prices [4]. Strategy - Be neutral. The sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter [6]. Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,010 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-1.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,735 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,065 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: The pulp import volume increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: The consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also lackluster [8]. Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium term [5] - Protein meal: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas, with domestic spot stronger than the futures [1][6][7] - Corn and starch: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; there is still a downward expectation during the new crop's concentrated listing period; in the long term, the market supports the idea of low - level absorption in the far - month [7][8] - Pigs: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] - Natural rubber: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] - Synthetic rubber: The futures may fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - Cotton: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] - Sugar: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] - Pulp: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] - Logs: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows different trends. Some products are affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policies, resulting in fluctuations in prices. The report provides investment suggestions based on the analysis of various factors of different products [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as US monetary policy, crude oil, and soybean weather, domestic and foreign oil and fat markets fluctuate. The export and production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory and import of domestic oils also have an impact on the market [5] - **Outlook**: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust; in the medium term, there is a high probability of continuing to strengthen [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans has rebounded, and Brazilian soybean exports have passed the peak. Domestically, the state reserve will auction soybeans, and the spot is stronger than the futures. The supply gap risk before December has weakened, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [1][7] - **Outlook**: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas. It is recommended that oil mills sell hedging on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price on dips [1][7] 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable with a slight decline. The supply side inventory is digested, and the demand side acceptance of high - priced grain is low. The new crop's production situation is normal, and the supply is expected to increase [7][8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; in the long term, the market supports the far - month low - level absorption idea [7][8] 3.1.4 Pigs - **Logic**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. The demand may increase with the cooling weather, and the "anti - involution" policy is being promoted [9] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price follows the financial market down. The supply and demand side is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [11] - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The futures follow the natural rubber down. The raw material butadiene is short - term tight, providing cost support [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term futures may fluctuate strongly [12] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by upstream ginning mills is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. Domestically, the import volume is increasing [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The futures continue to decline, mainly due to the delivery pressure of bleached softwood kraft pulp. The supply and demand change is not significant, and the short - term weakness continues [16] - **Outlook**: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The 09 contract has delivery pressure, dragging down far - month contracts. The short - term fundamentals have improved marginally, but there are still delivery product pressures [17] - **Outlook**: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report monitors data of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [20][38][51] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "strong", "fluctuating strongly", "fluctuating", "fluctuating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation defined as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [167] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 1.84% [169][171]