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CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌,小麦期货跌1.32%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-27 22:38
Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures saw a decline across all major contracts on August 27, with soybean, corn, and wheat futures all closing lower [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures fell by 0.12%, closing at 1048.25 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures decreased by 0.85%, ending at 406.00 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures dropped by 1.32%, closing at 524.75 cents per bushel [1]
ICE农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨,咖啡期货涨3.13%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-27 22:38
Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw most contracts rise, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.18% to 16.44 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures experienced a significant increase of 2.94%, closing at $7,837.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures rose by 3.13%, ending at 383.95 cents per pound [1] Group 2 - Cotton futures slightly decreased by 0.09%, closing at 66.65 cents per pound [1]
银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250827
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 15:10
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: August 27, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14075, down 25; trading volume was 192,722 hands, an increase of 39913; open interest was 508,803, an increase of 739 [3] - CF05 contract closed at 14030, down 25; trading volume was 7,362 hands, an increase of 247; open interest was 55,039, an increase of 188 [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13760, down 20; trading volume was 20,444 hands, a decrease of 2381; open interest was 44,086, a decrease of 12520 [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20095, down 65; trading volume was 81 hands, an increase of 32; open interest was 377, a decrease of 3 [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20395, unchanged; trading volume was 1 hand, unchanged; open interest was 6, unchanged [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20205, up 125; trading volume was 33 hands, unchanged; open interest was 517, a decrease of 9 [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15342 yuan/ton, up 107; CY IndexC32S was 20760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Cot A was 78.90 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21880 yuan/ton, down 11 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 76.57 cents/pound, down 0.68; Indian S - 6 was 54000 rupees/candy, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11030 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was 270, down 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 315, up 5 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 300, down 65; 5 - 9 spread was 190, down 125; 9 - 1 spread was 110, up 190 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6020, down 40; CY05 - CF05 was 6365, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6445, up 145 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1445, up 8; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 794, up 8; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1120, up 11 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In the US cotton main production area (92.9% output share), the average temperature was 83.51°F, 1.82°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.82 inches, 0.06 inches higher. In Texas, the average temperature was 84.78°F, 4.22°F lower, and the average rainfall was 0.51 inches, 0.46 inches higher. The growth progress is lagging, but the good - quality rate is high [6] - As of the week ending August 23, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 60.3%, a 11.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, 15.8% slower than the same period last year, mainly due to the lag in Mato Grosso [6] - As of August 23, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 10.787 million hectares, 352,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, a 3.2% year - on - year decline. The planting area growth is slowing [7] - The total volume of the 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application basis [7] Trading Logic - Macroscopically, after the recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended by 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still tight, and whether additional sliding - scale tariffs will be issued is the key supply - side factor. Demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August. Overall, the short - term market is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short term with limited upward space [11] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] Cotton Yarn Industry News - This week, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened again. The cotton yarn market had fair transactions, and spinning mills reduced inventory by selling at market prices, but there was resistance to price increases. The yarn price is expected to be stable in the short term [13] - The cotton grey fabric market price was slightly weak, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak. Weaving mills mainly digested inventory, and there were no conditions for price increases [13] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.0918, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601C14000 was 10.8%, CF601P13600 was 10%, and CF601P13400 was 10.3% [15] - Option Strategy Suggestion: Today, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7638, and the volume PCR was 0.6056. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [16][17] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and cotton inter - period spreads [20][23][28][29]
银河期货农产品每日早盘观察-20250827
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 15:09
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - International soybean market supply - demand situation has improved, with supply - side pressure easing, but there are still price adjustment factors at home and abroad. For sugar, international sugar is expected to fluctuate, and domestic sugar will follow the international trend. In the oil market, palm oil may continue to increase production and accumulate inventory, while domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and rapeseed oil is marginally destocked. Corn has a supply shortage in China, and prices may fall. Pig prices have supply pressure but limited downward space. Peanut prices are stable with some downward pressure, and egg prices are under supply - side pressure. Apple prices are expected to be high at the beginning of the new season, and cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][6][12][19][25][35][39][46][56][63] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.14% to 1065 cents/bushel, CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.4% to 296.1 dollars/short ton [2] - **Relevant Information**: EU 2025/26 soybean and rapeseed imports decreased compared to last year; Brazil's soybean exports reached a high in the week of August 25; Argentina plans to reduce soybean planting area; domestic soybean inventory increased slightly, and meal inventory increased [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: International soybean supply - demand is more balanced, but there are price adjustment factors at home and abroad [4][6] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Long bean and rapeseed meal in the far - month contract at low prices; expand the MRM05 spread at low prices; buy call options [10] Sugar - **External Market Change**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, up 0.18%; London white sugar price rose 0.43% [8] - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar exports in the first four weeks of August increased slightly; domestic processing sugar quotes were stable; ICE raw sugar futures + options positions changed, with an increase in net short positions [9][11] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but actual sugar production is lower than expected, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, domestic sugar prices are affected by international prices [12] - **Position Suggestion**: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to follow the international market and fluctuate slightly; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [13][14][15] Oil - **External Market**: CBOT US soybean oil price changed by 0.19%, BMD Malaysian palm oil price fell 0.43% [18] - **Relevant Information**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August; the US may exempt Indonesia's palm oil from tariffs; India's vegetable oil industry calls for tax refund policy adjustment; Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, but Indonesian prices support the market. Domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and rapeseed oil is destocked [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; expand the P15 spread on dips; wait and see for options [19][21] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: CBOT corn futures fell 0.7% [22] - **Important Information**: Russia raised its wheat production forecast; domestic corn prices fell, and the import corn auction had a 15%成交 rate; different types of enterprises' corn consumption changed [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: US corn may rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [25][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for external 12 - month corn and domestic 01 - month corn; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29][30] Pig - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices in various regions decreased; piglet and sow prices fell; the average wholesale price of pork decreased [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Pig supply increased slightly, and prices are under pressure but with limited downward space [35] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Long in the far - month contract at low prices; conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; wait and see for options [36] Peanut - **Important Information**: Peanut prices fell, new - season peanuts were on the market, oil mill开机率 was low, peanut meal sales were slow, and inventory decreased [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut prices are under pressure, and the 01 - month contract may bottom - oscillate [39] - **Trading Strategy**: Short 11 - month and 01 - month peanuts at high prices, long 05 - month peanuts lightly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [40][41][42] Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices rose in most regions; the number of laying hens increased; egg sales decreased; inventory increased; egg - raising profits improved [43][44][45] - **Trading Logic**: Supply - side pressure is high, and prices are under pressure [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies; short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts before and after the Spring Festival; sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Apple - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; imports increased and exports decreased; early - maturing apples were on the market, and prices were polarized; storage profits decreased [52][53][54] - **Trading Logic**: Spot inventory is low, new - season apple prices may be high at the beginning [56] - **Trading Strategy**: Long at low prices, roll operations; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [61] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton fell 1.05% [59] - **Important Information**: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listings decreased; US cotton growth progress was slow but with a high good - quality rate; China announced the quota for cotton import tariff - rate quota [60][62] - **Trading Logic**: Tariff impact is weakened, supply is tight, and demand is expected to improve [63] - **Trading Strategy**: Both US and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger, wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]
蛋白粕现货报价持稳,负基差拖累盘面
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 07:21
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [5] - **Protein Meal**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [13] - **Cotton**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and bearish when new cotton is listed [13] - **Sugar**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and fluctuate within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: Bullish, recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each product, considering both domestic and international factors [5][7][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to technical pressure, US soybeans fell on Monday, and domestic oils continued to fluctuate. Macro factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices, as well as industry factors like high soybean good - rate, uncertain export demand, and different supply - demand situations of different oils, affect the market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, US soybean good - rate is high, Brazilian exports are peaking, and CFTC net short positions are decreasing. Domestically, spot is stronger than the futures. It is expected that the outer market will rise more than the inner market, and the basis may bottom out. Suggestions include selling hedges for oil mills and buying basis contracts for downstream enterprises [7] - **Corn/Starch**: The price trend is weak. Supply is gradually tightening, but the market expects a low probability of a supply gap. Demand is weak due to low profits in related industries. New - season corn production is normal, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and may attract long - positions in the long term [7][8] - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant in the short, medium, and long term, but there are policies to guide capacity reduction. Demand may increase with the cooling weather, and there was a 10,000 - ton reserve purchase. It is expected to fluctuate, with the spot and near - term contracts remaining weak and the far - term contracts supported by capacity - reduction expectations [9] - **Natural Rubber**: The price may be affected by weather speculation. It is in the seasonal rising period, and there are various positive factors. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13] - **Cotton**: Supply is tight, and the impact of import quotas is limited. Demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by ginners is rising. It is expected to fluctuate strongly until October and may decline when new cotton is listed [13][14] - **Sugar**: International production in Brazil is increasing, and exports are at a peak. Domestic imports are rising. Supply is increasing, but the short - term downside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: The market has both positive and negative factors. The recovery of hardwood pulp trading and cost support are positive, while over - supply of paper and delivery pressure are negative. It is expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, with rising valuation and reduced supply pressure. However, there is delivery pressure. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips within the range of 790 - 840 [20] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Data monitoring is carried out for various products such as oils and fats, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [22][53][73] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include categories such as strongly bullish, bullish with fluctuations, neutral with fluctuations, bearish with fluctuations, and strongly bearish, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method provided [170] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 26, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all declined. The agricultural products index also declined by 0.49% on that day, with different historical and recent period fluctuations [172][174]
棕榈油:基本面暂无新驱动,等待回调,豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,震荡整理,豆粕:美豆偏强、连粕偏弱,谨防超跌反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:52
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamentals have no new drivers, waiting for a pullback [2][4] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, with a sideways consolidation [2][4] - Soybean meal: CBOT soybeans are strong while DCE soybean meal is weak. Beware of a rebound after an over - decline [2][12] - Soybean: Affected by the atmosphere of the soybean market, it is weak in the short term [2][12] - Corn: It is moving sideways [2][15] - Sugar: Maintain the thinking of range consolidation [2][19] - Cotton: Pay attention to the situation of new crops and the influence of external market sentiment [2][23] - Eggs: The sentiment for the distant end is weak [2][29] - Hogs: The spot performance is below expectations. Short at high prices [2][31] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][36] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton (-0.67%), and night - session was 9,488 yuan/ton (+0.68%); soybean oil's daily - session was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00%), and night - session was 8,402 yuan/ton (-1.57%) [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,470 yuan/ton (-150); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,850 yuan/ton (+130) [4] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 314 yuan/ton [4] Macro and Industry News - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% MoM, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% MoM, and production decreased by 1.21% MoM [5] - Malaysia is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax [7] - The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from a 19% tariff [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3974 yuan/ton (-0.60%), and night - session was 3961 yuan/ton (-0.68%); DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session was 3081 yuan/ton (-0.93%), and night - session was 3047 yuan/ton (-1.61%) [12] - Spot: Shandong's soybean meal (43%) was 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 30 to flat compared to the previous day [12] - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.95 million tons/day, and the inventory was 98.55 million tons/week [12] Macro and Industry News - On August 26, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher as Chinese trade representatives were to visit the US, but the expected bumper harvest of US soybeans limited the upside [14] Trend Intensity - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; soybean trend intensity: 0 [14] Corn Fundamental Tracking - Futures: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,210 yuan/ton (-0.09%), and night - session was 2,210 yuan/ton (0.00%); C2511's daily - session was 2,158 yuan/ton (-0.28%), and night - session was 2,157 yuan/ton (-0.05%) [16] - Spot: Jinzhou's closing price was 2,250 yuan/ton (0); Guangdong Shekou was 2,360 yuan/ton (0) [16] Macro and Industry News - Northern corn collection prices were stable, while Guangdong Shekou's prices increased by 10 yuan/ton; Northeast corn prices were weak, and North China's prices declined [17] Trend Intensity - Corn trend intensity: 0 [18] Sugar Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The main contract price was 5632 yuan/ton (-56) [19] - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5980 yuan/ton (0) [19] Macro and Industry News - Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased; China's July sugar imports were 740,000 tons (+320,000 tons) [19] Trend Intensity - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [22] Cotton Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton (-0.14%), and night - session was 14085 yuan/ton (-0.11%); ICE cotton 12 was 66.67 cents/lb (-1.05%) [23] - Spot: Northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,342 yuan/ton (-20); Southern Xinjiang's was 15,033 yuan/ton (-20) [23] Macro and Industry News - Cotton spot trading was average, and the basis was stable; the cotton yarn market was okay, but the fabric market improved slightly [24] Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity: 0 [27] Eggs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Egg 2509's closing price was 2,916 yuan/500 kg (-1.32%); Egg 2601 was 3,376 yuan/500 kg (-0.53%) [29] - Spot: Liaoning's spot price was 3.20 yuan/jin; Hebei's was 2.69 yuan/jin [29] Trend Intensity - Egg trend intensity: 0 [29] Hogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Hog 2509's closing price was 13,665 yuan/ton (-130); Hog 2511 was 13,860 yuan/ton (-50); Hog 2601 was 14,200 yuan/ton (-40) [32] - Spot: Henan's spot price was 13,730 yuan/ton (-50); Sichuan's was 13,600 yuan/ton (+50); Guangdong's was 14,940 yuan/ton (-200) [32] Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and retail farmers were forced to hold back pigs. Demand growth was limited. Short the November contract at high prices; the September contract still had a premium over the warehouse - receipt cost [34] Trend Intensity - Hog trend intensity: -1 [33] Peanuts Fundamental Tracking - Futures: PK510's closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton (+1.20%); PK511 was 7,834 yuan/ton (+0.72%) [36] - Spot: Liaoning's 308 common peanuts were 8,000 yuan/ton (0); Henan's Baisha common peanuts were 8,500 yuan/ton (0) [36] Spot Market Focus - In Henan, the supply was limited due to rain, and inquiries increased; new peanuts in Jilin were growing well and were expected to be listed in mid - to late September [37] Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [38]
ICE农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌,可可期货跌4.92%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-26 22:37
Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts decline on August 26, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.12% to 16.42 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.97% to 66.67 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 4.92% to $7,629.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures dropped by 1.88% to 370.65 cents per pound [1]
【环球财经】芝加哥农产品期价26日涨跌不一
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 22:37
Core Insights - The Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans showed mixed price movements on August 26, with corn prices declining while wheat and soybean prices increased [1] Price Movements - The most active December corn contract closed at $4.10 per bushel, down 2.75 cents or 0.67% from the previous trading day [1] - The December wheat contract closed at $5.32 per bushel, up 2 cents or 0.38% from the previous trading day [1] - The November soybean contract closed at $10.50 per bushel, up 1.75 cents or 0.17% from the previous trading day [1] Market Dynamics - The increase in U.S. wheat prices is attributed to a decline in the global spot wheat market, with expectations that a seasonal bottom in the world wheat market may not occur until mid-September [1] - Due to large supply volumes in the U.S. and globally, corn and soybean futures prices are experiencing declines, with an expected increase in global corn export supply by 71 to 74 million tons this year [1] - The market is currently seeking demand as corn-exporting countries have ample supply [1] Weather Impact - Weather forecasts indicate heavy rain will sweep across the U.S. plains and delta regions over the next five days, moving northward to the western Midwest [1] - After September 3, the probability of rainfall in the eastern Midwest is expected to increase, signaling the arrival of autumn in the central U.S. [1]
CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨,玉米期货跌0.73%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-26 22:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on August 26, with most contracts showing an upward trend [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures increased by 0.12%, closing at 1049.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures decreased by 0.73%, closing at 409.25 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures rose by 0.38%, closing at 531.75 cents per bushel [1]
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250826
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 14:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some regional pressures. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to be in a state of inventory accumulation, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, while the domestic vegetable oil has a relatively stable fundamental situation. The US corn may have a rebound space, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline. The pig price is expected to decline slightly, and the peanut market is expected to be stable with new - season supply increasing. The egg market has obvious supply - side pressure, and the apple market is expected to have a wide - range shock. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][6][10][18][24][30][34][44][52][61]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1062.75 cents/bu, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.41% to 293.4 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 24, US soybean crop good - excellent rate was 69%. As of August 21, the US soybean export inspection volume was 382,806 tons. The expected current - year soybean import volume increased by 120 tons to 1.5 million tons. As of August 22, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. Soybean inventory increased by 0.31% to 6.8253 million tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 3.8% to 1.0533 million tons [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but Brazilian and Argentine soybeans have price or export pressure. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, buy soybean and rapeseed meal at low prices for far - month contracts; for arbitrage, expand the MRM05 spread; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, with the main contract down 0.05 (- 0.3%) to 16.39 cents/lb. London white sugar price rose in the previous trading day, with the main contract up 3.4 (0.7%) to 486.3 dollars/ton [8]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the waiting sugar volume was 2.9169 million tons. Southern China's sugar quotes were stable with average transactions [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Domestically, the domestic sugar price is affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend [10]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [11][12][13]. Oilseeds - **Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil main price fell 0.94% to 54.84 cents/lb, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price fell 0.24% to 4482 ringgit/ton [15]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9%. In July, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume increased by 13.13%. As of August 22, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 5.70%, and the soybean oil inventory increased by 3.79% [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, but the Indonesian price provides support. The domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and the vegetable oil inventory is decreasing [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, expand the P15 spread after a correction; for options, wait and see [19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.5% to 412.5 cents/bu [21]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 23, Brazil's second - crop corn harvest rate was 94.8%. The US corn export inspection volume increased. The domestic corn price was weak [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn may rebound, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy the December corn on dips and go long on the 01 corn at the bottom; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [25][27]. Pig - **Relevant Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with some regions falling. Piglet and sow prices changed, and the pork wholesale price was stable [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market supply pressure increased, and the price is expected to decline slightly [30]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, buy far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [31]. Peanut - **Relevant Information**: The peanut price was weakly falling, the oil mill's demand was low, and the peanut oil price was strong. The peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is stable, but the new - season supply is expected to increase [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short 11 and 01 peanuts on rallies, wait and see currently, and go long on 05 peanuts lightly; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [35][37][38]. Egg - **Relevant Information**: The egg price was stable, the in - production laying hen inventory increased, the egg sales volume decreased, and the inventory increased [40][42][43]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and the price is expected to decline. Consider shorting on rallies [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies provided in the given text. Apple - **Relevant Information**: The apple cold - storage inventory decreased, the import and export volumes changed, the early - maturing apple price was polarized, and the storage profit decreased [47][51][52]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton fell, with the main contract down 0.62 (0.91%) to 67.38 cents/lb [57]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 24, the US cotton good - excellent rate was 54%. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade was 200,000 tons. As of mid - August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was at a low level [58]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact is weakened, the supply is tight, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to be slightly stronger [59][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [62].