Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries including polyolefins, crude oil, chlor-alkali, pure benzene-styrene, methanol, PX-PTA-EG, and urea on September 2, 2025. It presents price changes, supply-demand dynamics, and offers investment strategies for each sector. 1. Polyolefins Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the polyolefin market shows a "supply decrease and demand increase" characteristic, with inventory reduction and controllable market pressure. It is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices declined slightly. The basis of some varieties changed, and the spread between different contracts also showed fluctuations [2]. - **Supply**: PE's early - September device maintenance volume remains high, and the scale gradually decreases after the middle of the month. PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation due to new capacity release and the return of maintenance devices [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream industry's开工 rate increased compared to last month, but new orders have weak support [2]. 2. Crude Oil Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Overnight oil prices fluctuated strongly. The market is in a game between geopolitical risk support and long - term oversupply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and look for opportunities to expand spreads after increased volatility [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices rose. The spreads of some refined oil products and cracking spreads also changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand**: OPEC + production cuts, inventory decline, and China's strategic reserve absorption ease short - term pressure, but the expectation of war suppressing demand may lead to a 10% drop in oil prices this year and a large - scale surplus at the end of the year [4]. 3. Chlor - Alkali Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The caustic soda futures market is strong, and the PVC market is in an oversupply situation and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The export profit of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit of PVC increased. The开工 rate and profit of related industries also changed [7]. - **Supply**: The开工 rate of the caustic soda and PVC industries declined [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the demand for PVC remained weak [7]. 4. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene weakens, and the absolute price is under pressure. The short - term driving force of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand later [15]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the spreads between related products also changed [13][14]. - **Supply**: The planned maintenance of pure benzene devices in September is few, and new devices are expected to be put into production. The short - term supply of styrene remains high [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream of pure benzene has multiple loss - making varieties, and the demand for styrene is currently strong but may be affected by future device maintenance [15]. 5. Methanol Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The methanol market has a problem of continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and the basis is weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [21]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the basis and spread changed [21]. - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas methanol enterprises'开工 rate changed, and imports in September are still large [21]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the restart of MTO devices at ports [21]. 6. PX - PTA - EG Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply - demand of PX, PTA, and EG is expected to improve, and short - fiber also has a good supply - demand expectation, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [25]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: PX, PTA, and EG prices and spreads changed. PTA's processing margin decreased slightly [25]. - **Supply**: PX's maintenance devices restart, PTA's planned unplanned maintenance increases, and domestic EG's开工 rate is high [25]. - **Demand**: The polyester and terminal loads increased, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation still exists [25]. 7. Urea Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The urea futures market is weak, mainly due to weak demand. The upward pressure on the futures price is large under high - supply conditions [34]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Urea prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the spreads between different regions also changed [34]. - **Supply**: Although there are local maintenance plans, the daily output remains at about 180,000 tons [34]. - **Demand**: Agricultural off - season and industrial on - demand procurement suppress domestic demand, and dealers' fertilizer - stocking willingness is low [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职，几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the divergence between the improvement of macro - expectations and the bearish industrial factors [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may continue to lack the momentum to rebound and maintain a volatile and weak trend because of the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain a volatile and weak trend as the South American geopolitical factors are digested and the market returns to the weak supply - demand fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 4.70% to 73,300 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.28% to 532,900 tons. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [10]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.31%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.31%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9183 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.22%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.33%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.91% [11]. - As of August 29, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 116 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 62,300 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 72. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 6.891 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [13]. - As of August 26, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 109,472 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,737 contracts and a significant decrease of 73,698 contracts from the July average of 183,170 contracts, a decrease of 40.23%. As of August 26, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,146 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 25,253 contracts and a significant decrease of 17,930 contracts from the July average of 220,076 contracts, a decrease of 8.15% [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,860 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | - 960 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,235 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,385 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | - 34 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 468.9 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 483.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 14.6 yuan/barrel | +2.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20] - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33] - Crude oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The policy of China's proposed industrial rectification to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry provides short - term support to market sentiment, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is expected that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are restart plans for some methanol plants, and high port inventories will also have a certain impact. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week, with MA2601 expected to operate between 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral. The policy is favorable in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced, but there are restart plans for some plants, and port inventories are at a high level. The port market has high volatility. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of August 28, 2025, port inventories have increased significantly, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week [5]. 2. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some plants are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories were at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; CTO plants in the northwest region are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down plants are restarting, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 671 yuan/ton, unchanged; CFR China Main Port is 259 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; the import cost is 2281 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The prices in different domestic regions have different changes, with Jiangsu at 2232 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; Shandong at 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei at 2265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia at 2055 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; Fujian at 2265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Futures market**: The futures closing price is 2373 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the number of registered warrants is 10,266, down 100; the number of effective forecasts is 1383, an increase of 1383 [8]. - **Spread structure**: The basis is - 141 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the import spread is - 92 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the spread between Jiangsu and Shandong is - 78 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the spread between Jiangsu and Hebei is - 33 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia is 177 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton; the spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 64 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating rate**: The weighted average operating rate across the country is 74.90%, down 3.81 percentage points; the operating rate in East China is 80.65%, unchanged; the operating rate in Shandong is 68.71%, down 2.39 percentage points; the operating rate in Southwest China is 44.06%, down 1.22 percentage points; the operating rate in Northwest China is 81.54%, down 3.55 percentage points [8]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory at East China ports is 57.26 million tons, an increase of 0.93 million tons; the inventory at South China ports is 36.16 million tons, an increase of 3.38 million tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in various maintenance states, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and shutdown due to reasons such as equipment failure and limited gas supply [59]. - **Overseas plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United States, etc., have different operating conditions, including normal operation, restarting, and undergoing maintenance [60]. - **Olefin plants**: Olefin plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and Northeast also have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and planned production increases [61].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices oscillated weakly due to concerns about global crude oil supply surplus and seasonal demand decline. OPEC+ relaxing production cuts and non - OPEC+ countries increasing production led to higher supply expectations. While refinery profits are good currently, the approaching end of the US summer driving season reduces gasoline demand expectations. Geopolitical factors offer some support but the overall market sentiment is bearish, with a high probability of short - term weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the option side after volatility increases [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing as检修 devices restart, and downstream PTA has many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing fees. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" demand expectation exists, terminal load declined this week, and the demand support is limited. PX11 should focus on the support around 6800, and the strategy of widening the PX - SC spread should exit at high levels [43]. - PTA: In August - September, supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations due to more unplanned shutdowns. However, terminal load declined this week, and demand support is limited. TA should focus on the support around 4750 and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [43]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply is increasing as devices resume production, and port inventory is at a low level. With the approaching of the demand peak season, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Sellers of the short - put option EG2601 - P - 4350 can hold [43]. - Short - fiber: Supply load remains high, demand is uncertain, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 with limited upward and downward drivers [43]. - Bottle chips: In August, it is the peak consumption season, and inventory is slowly decreasing. The processing fee has support at the bottom, but it is suppressed by the short - term strengthening of the cost side. The PR single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [43]. Methanol - Port inventory is increasing significantly, the basis is weak, and imports in September remain high. The supply side has high domestic and rising overseas non - Iranian production. The demand side is weak due to the off - season, but there is an expectation of MTO device restart in September. Future attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [72][74]. Urea - The rebound of the urea futures is driven by short - term supply contraction due to more device shutdowns for maintenance. Although daily production is still higher than last year, the expected production reduction supports the market. Downstream restocking also strengthens the supply - contraction expectation. However, the market is still in a state of inventory accumulation, and the rebound strength may be limited. Future attention should be paid to device restart progress, port collection, and industrial demand in North China before the parade [85]. Polyolefins - PP: Devices scheduled for restart next week will increase production. The price center is moving down, and the weighted profit is compressed. PP achieves inventory reduction with both supply and demand increasing. - PE: High - level maintenance will continue until September. It shows a stable - to - downward trend. Supply decreases while demand increases, with upstream inventory reduction and mid - stream inventory accumulation. Before mid - September, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the LP01 spread should be held [88]. Chlor - Alkali - Caustic Soda: The futures price is slightly falling, and the previous high - level resistance is obvious. Although the spot market was strong before, with good demand from Shandong's downstream alumina plants and inventory reduction, the supply is expected to increase as some plants resume production. The demand is growing, but the short - term futures pressure may be transmitted to the spot market, and short - selling can be considered [91]. - PVC: The futures price is weakening, and the spot price is also decreasing. Supply is expected to increase as new production capacity is put into use and maintenance decreases. Demand from downstream products is weak, and export pressure increases due to the Indonesian anti - dumping tax. Previous short positions can be held [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but as previous maintenance devices resume and there will be a concentrated arrival of pure benzene at the terminal in the second half of the month, the fundamental advantage is weakening. It oscillates weakly, and BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [94]. - Styrene: Downstream 3S load declined slightly this week. The industry is in a loss, supply is high, and port inventory is high, so the short - term drive is weak. However, there are more maintenance plans in September - October, and export expectations increase, so the supply - demand situation may improve. EB10 short positions should be closed at low levels, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [94]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 29, Brent crude was at $68.62/barrel (up $0.57 or 0.84% from August 28), WTI was at $64.19/barrel (down $0.41 or - 0.63%), and SC was at 500.10 yuan/barrel (up 6.60 yuan or 1.34%). Different price spreads also showed various changes [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB increased by 2.34%, NYM ULSD decreased by 0.71%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.04%. Different product oil spreads also changed on August 29 compared to August 28 [1]. - **Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads in different regions and for different products showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased, CFR China MX decreased, etc. [43]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. showed different changes, and cash flows also varied [43]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX, PX futures prices, and various PX spreads all changed [43]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA spot and futures prices decreased, and processing fees also changed [43]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG prices, basis, and cash flows showed different trends, and port inventory was at a low level [43]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 increased slightly, MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread and various regional spreads changed [72]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [73]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Domestic upstream开工率 decreased slightly, overseas upstream开工率 increased slightly, and downstream开工率 showed different trends [74]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Different futures contracts showed different price changes, and contract spreads also changed [80][81]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [84]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production, inventory, and开工率 all changed, with production slightly decreasing and inventory increasing [85]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, and various spreads and basis changed [88]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and trade - related inventories showed different trends [88]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE and PP装置开工率 and downstream加权开工率 changed slightly [88]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of different types of caustic soda and PVC in the spot and futures markets showed small changes [91]. - **Supply and Demand**:开工率 of caustic soda and PVC industries, downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC products, and inventory all changed [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene prices changed, and pure benzene - related prices and spreads also varied [94]. - **Styrene - Related Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices, spreads, and cash flows changed [94]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed [94]. - **产业链开工率**:开工率 of different parts of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It's a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.46, or 0.72%, to $64.32; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.47, or 0.69%, to $68.27; INE main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan, or 0.13%, to 473 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 1.67 million barrels to 13.49 million barrels, a 11.01% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.33 million barrels, a 3.77% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.69 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.33% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.35 million barrels to 47.54 million barrels, a 0.72% decline [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 28, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 18 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 141 [4] - **Supply**: Domestic production has further recovered, with enterprise profits remaining at a medium - high level. There is still room for production to increase, and supply is gradually rising. Imports have increased, and port inventory has accumulated to a high level [4] - **Demand**: Port MTO profits have continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [4] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 28, the 01 contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 1753 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 [6] - **Supply**: More plants are under maintenance, domestic production has declined, and daily output has fallen below 18.5 tons. Short - term supply pressure has eased, and enterprise profits are at a medium - low level [6] - **Demand**: Compound fertilizer production has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventory has risen rapidly. Current demand is mainly concentrated in exports [6] - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventory has increased and remains at a high level year - on - year [6] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long on dips as the downside space is limited [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Bullish Factors**: Southeast Asian weather and rubber forest conditions may limit supply; rubber usually rises in the second half of the year; China's demand is expected to improve [10] - **Bearish Factors**: Macroeconomic expectations are uncertain; demand is in the seasonal off - season; the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, down 1.76 percentage points from last week but up 3.95 percentage points from the same period last year. All - steel tire exports are good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, up 0.19 percentage points from last week but down 4.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories is slow to consume [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [11] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,800 (+ 100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,825 (+ 15) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,825 (+ 20) dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,350 (+ 50) yuan; North China butadiene rubber was 11,700 (0) yuan [12] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short term, expect the rubber price to fluctuate, and use a neutral - to - bullish approach, going long on dips and exiting quickly. Partially close the position of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4,946 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 246 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 151 (- 4) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2,350 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 840 (0) dollars/ton. The cost remained stable, and the spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decline. The downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decline. Factory inventory was 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventory was 853,000 tons (+ 41,000) [13] - **Strategy**: In the current situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [15] - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of styrene has been rising. Port inventory has been increasing significantly [15] - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5,965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 7,164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 44 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 152.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.62 yuan/ton [16] - **Strategy**: In the long term, the BZN spread may be adjusted. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [16] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains. The spot price of polyethylene is stable, and the downward valuation space is limited. Overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the seasonal peak season may be approaching, with demand for agricultural film raw materials starting to build up inventory [18] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton; the spot price was 7,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 38 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.24%, a 0.25% increase. Production enterprise inventory was 427,000 tons, a decrease of 74,900 tons; trader inventory was 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [18] - **Strategy**: In the long term, the downward trend dominated by cost factors may shift, and the polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [19] - **Analysis**: The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical has been put into operation, and propylene supply has gradually recovered. The downstream operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. In August, there are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation. Although the seasonal peak season may be approaching, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the spot price was 7,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis was 24 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.11%, a 0.2% increase. Production enterprise inventory was 538,500 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons; trader inventory was 168,200 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons; port inventory was 60,300 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons [19] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6,886 yuan, and PX CFR fell 5 dollars to 849 dollars. The basis was 68 yuan (+ 9), and the 11 - 1 spread was 58 yuan (- 22) [21] - **Supply and Demand**: China's PX operating rate was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; Asia's operating rate was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants have restarted. The PTA operating rate was 70.4%, a 2.5% decrease [21] - **Inventory**: In mid - and early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 294,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons year - on - year. At the end of June, inventory was 4.138 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons month - on - month [21] - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN was 264 dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 98 dollars (- 13) [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the rise of crude oil during the peak season [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 32 yuan to 4,792 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 60 yuan/ton to 4,775 yuan. The basis was - 24 yuan (- 6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 56 yuan (- 16) [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 70.4%, a 2.5% decrease. Some plants have undergone maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, and some new plants have been put into operation. The downstream operating rate was 89.9%, a 0.1% decrease [23] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons [23] - **Valuation and Cost**: The spot processing fee of PTA fell 30 yuan to 213 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 11 yuan to 313 yuan [23] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the rise of PX during the peak season [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4,465 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,527 yuan. The basis was 66 yuan (+ 5), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 41 yuan (+ 5) [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 75.1%, a 2.7% increase. Some plants at home and abroad have restarted or adjusted their loads. The downstream operating rate was 89.9%, a 0.1% decrease [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons. The import forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on August 27 was 10,000 tons [24] - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha - based production profit was - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 581 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1,104 yuan. The cost of ethylene increased to 842 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 520 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: In the medium term, port inventory may enter an accumulation cycle, and there is downward pressure on valuation [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that short - term macro upward drivers are marginally strengthening, with focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies, loose expectations, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Different asset classes are expected to have different short - term trends, mainly presenting震荡 (oscillation) or震荡偏强 (oscillation with a slightly upward trend) patterns [2][3]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The second - quarter GDP had a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1%. After the New York Fed President Williams hinted at a possible rate cut, market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month increased, the US dollar index was weak, and global risk appetite increased. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and was below expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days and increased US easing expectations, short - term external risks decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. - Asset Performance: Stocks are expected to be short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with short - term cautious long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be high - level oscillatory in the short term, with cautious observation; commodities: black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious observation; precious metals are high - level and slightly stronger oscillatory in the short term, with cautious long positions [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market fell significantly due to the drag of sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor. - The short - term macro upward driver is marginally strengthening, with focus on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose on Thursday. The Fed's independence concerns and the weakening US dollar supported the upward movement of precious metals. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and the second - quarter GDP was stronger than expected. The market is focused on the PCE data to be released on Friday. Gold has strong short - term support, but be wary of the Fed's changing attitude [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - Steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly on Thursday, and trading volume increased slightly. The expectation of steel production cuts in the next two years has increased. - The fundamentals remain weak, with an increase in the inventory of five major steel products and a decline in the apparent consumption of some products. Supply is mixed, with an increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in hot - rolled coil production. There is a possibility of further production restrictions in the north in early September, and the steel market may continue to rebound [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. Steel mills' profits are high, but due to production restrictions in the north in the next week, steel mills' procurement is cautious. - Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Port inventories decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices were flat, and silicon manganese prices rebounded slightly on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay as the production of five major steel products continues to increase. - The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia is stable, with some minor production fluctuations. There are new production capacity plans in the future, and the daily output may be affected by 500 - 800 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6][7]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply increased due to the return of previous maintenance, and there is supply pressure with new capacity coming online. - Demand remained stable week - on - week, but overall demand support is weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Glass - The glass main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply remained stable, and demand is difficult to improve significantly. - Profits decreased as glass prices fell. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Due to concerns about US tariffs and the expected tightening of the Japanese central bank's monetary policy, and the weakening of domestic demand, the strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Thursday, and inventories continued to increase. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - The supply - side开工率 (operating rate) increased, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The demand side is weak, but the price decline has stimulated downstream replenishment. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations (restoration of production expectations), and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate main contract fell on Thursday. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to be widely oscillatory, with short - term short positions and long - term long positions [11]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract fell on Thursday. With the oscillation of black metals and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon main contract fell on Thursday. The production in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The possibility of more Russian oil supply entering the market in the short term has decreased, and oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. However, the market has limited risk premium digestion, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [14]. Asphalt - Due to limited oil price changes, the asphalt main price remained almost unchanged. The spot market has slightly improved, but inventory removal is limited. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [14]. PX - After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, PX supply is tight, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. PTA - The PTA price declined, but there is some support from domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments and the temporary shutdown of the Huizhou device. It is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with attention to the downstream recovery space [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected to be narrowly oscillatory in the short term, with support from downstream start - up recovery, but supply pressure is still large [16]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber prices fell slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and it is recommended to short on highs in the medium term [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland devices and concentrated arrivals have pressured prices, but there is some support from the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO devices. Methanol is expected to be oscillatory [16]. PP - The supply - side pressure is increasing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory situation of the 01 contract [16]. LLDPE - The supply - side pressure remains, and demand is showing a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory situation of the 01 contract [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean price was supported by the continuous improvement of US new - season soybean exports. The export sales of the current market year decreased, while the next - year exports increased significantly. Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal has eased, but the near - month/spot risk has not subsided. Rapeseed meal has an upward fluctuation basis due to low inventory and few long - term purchases [19]. Oils - Rapeseed oil port inventories are decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to strengthen. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market is expected to be oscillatory [20]. Corn - The national corn price is running weakly, but the futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and the possibility of breaking through last year's range is small [20]. Hogs - Group farms continued to reduce weight in August, and the pig price did not rebound as expected at the end of August. The theoretical slaughter volume will increase in September, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Some local areas have started purchasing and storage [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved up to 15,945 yuan/ton, and it slightly rose 0.28% to 15,945 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount narrowed to 985 yuan/ton. With the divergence between long and short in the rubber market, the improvement of macro - expectations competes with the negative industrial factors. It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and consolidating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,381 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,356 yuan/ton, and it slightly fell 0.42% to 2,373 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 148 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 483.6 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 478.4 yuan/barrel, and it slightly fell 0.97% to 481.7 yuan/barrel at the close. As the South American geopolitical factors are digested, crude oil returns to the market dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. During the period, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises basically returned to normal operation, driving the week - on - week recovery of capacity utilization, and enterprises basically maintained normal sales [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. The growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight increase of 4.82% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 8.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. As of August 22, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant increase of 144,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,300 tons compared with 395,800 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.891 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, United States, reached 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 120,209 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the average of 183,170 contracts in July. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 176,893 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the average of 220,076 contracts in July. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly month - on - month, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly month - on - month [13] 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change Compared with the Previous Day | Rise/Fall Compared with the Previous Day | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | 15,945 yuan/ton | - 1,045 yuan/ton | + 185 yuan/ton | - 185 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,265 yuan/ton | 2,373 yuan/ton | - 108 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.6 yuan/barrel | 481.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.1 yuan/barrel | + 2.0 yuan/barrel | - 2.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: There are charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda spot is expected to continue rising steadily, but the futures may face short - term resistance. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to have short - term low - buying opportunities, and the PX - SC spread can be expanded. PTA should be observed in the short term, with low - buying opportunities and TA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Short - fiber and bottle - chip strategies are similar to PTA [6]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene trends are expected to be weakly volatile, and BZ2603 should follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Styrene has a weak short - term drive, and EB10 can be short - sold on rebounds [11]. Urea Industry - The urea market is weakly volatile, with high supply and weak demand. The fundamentals are difficult to reverse [14][15]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has significant port inventory accumulation, weak basis, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [18]. Polyolefin Industry - The overall supply pressure of polyolefins is not large before mid - September, and the LP01 spread can be held [44]. Crude Oil Industry - The short - term oil price rebounds, but the geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties remain. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [46]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda increased by 1.2%, while the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 1.1%. Some futures prices and spreads also changed [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda and PVC industry operating rates decreased, and the profit of external calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 8.0% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, but the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 8.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda and PVC upstream factory inventories decreased, while the PVC total social inventory increased by 3.1% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of some upstream and downstream products of the polyester industry chain changed, such as the price of Brent crude oil increasing by 1.2% [6]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 8.6% [6]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the Asian PX operating rate increasing by 2.2% [6]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: The prices of upstream and downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, such as the CFR China pure benzene price decreasing by 0.9% [11]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.2%, while the styrene inventory increased by 10.8% [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain changed, such as the domestic hydrogenated benzene operating rate decreasing by 8.0% [11]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures prices and spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [14]. - **Supply**: The domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.81%, and the factory inventory increased by 6.05% [14]. - **Demand**: The demand is affected by the agricultural season and industrial factors, and the compound fertilizer inventory is high [14]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: The methanol futures and spot prices decreased, and the inventory increased significantly [16][17]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed slightly [18]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins decreased, and the spreads between some contracts changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the PE social inventory increased slightly [44]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE and PP operating rates changed, and the downstream weighted operating rates increased slightly [44]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between some contracts also changed [46]. - **Inventory**: The EIA US crude oil and refined product inventories decreased [46]. - **Operating Rates**: The US refinery operating rate decreased to 94.6% [50].