Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 86, indicating an "overheated" market condition [6][10][22] - Historical trends show that when sentiment is below or close to 30, the market tends to find support, while above 90, it faces resistance [10] Hot Themes Tracking - **Storage Theme**: Major manufacturers are phasing out DDR4, with a reported 53% price increase in May, the highest since 2017. Related stocks include Jiangbolong (301308) and Zhaoyi Innovation (603586) [7] - **Energy Metals Theme**: The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended a temporary ban on cobalt exports due to high inventory levels. Related stocks include Huayou Cobalt (603799) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) [7] - **Stablecoin Theme**: The People's Bank of China discussed the transformation of monetary policy and the rise of digital currencies at the Lujiazui Forum. Related stocks include Sifang Jingchuang (300468) and Jingbeifang (002987) [7] Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Chengfei Integration (69,333.71 million), Dongxin Peace (54,023.33 million), and Rongfa Nuclear Power (51,283.10 million) [11] - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Hengbao Co. (-77,375.44 million), Dongfang Fortune (-56,211.82 million), and BYD (-53,577.85 million) [13] - The top ten industries with the highest net inflow include Defense Industry (172,656 million) and Media (121,159 million) [17] - The top ten industries with the highest net outflow include Social Services (-21,650 million) and Environmental Protection (-27,401 million) [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend despite a recent 2.8% decline in domestic spot gold prices. The geopolitical instability and the weakening global position of the US dollar are anticipated to provide lasting support for gold prices [4]. - Industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with copper prices experiencing a 1.3% increase, while aluminum prices fell by 0.5%. The decline in copper exchange inventories has raised concerns about potential short squeezes, which may lead to increased price volatility [4]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have seen an upward trend, while tungsten prices remained stable. The recovery in manufacturing is expected to drive demand for tungsten in cutting and wear-resistant tools [4]. - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have risen. The demand for energy metals is being closely monitored for future growth [4]. - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals, with companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zijin Mining being highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for gold due to geopolitical tensions and the weakening dollar [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - SHFE copper price is at 79,920 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.3%. LME copper price is at 10,051 USD/ton, with a 3.5% weekly increase [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides have increased, while tungsten prices have remained stable [28]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have increased. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand for energy metals [34]. 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, and the non-ferrous metal sector increased by 5.11% during the reporting period [35]. 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights ongoing competition in the copper market, with significant pressure on buyers due to declining inventories [42].

2025 年 06 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：66 分（较热） 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 66 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源自采矿的 钴 出 口 。 相 关 标 的 ： 华 友 钴 业 （ 603799 ） 、 天 齐 锂 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 有色金属 需求淡季不淡，看好工业金属价格上行 黄金：地缘与关税担忧降温引发金价回调，长期牛市格局不改。近期由于地缘与关税的缓和， 黄金价格震荡整理，市场近期转向美联储降息交易。过去一周，由于美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼 的表态，市场对美联储降息预期一度上升。但紧随其后，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、纽约联储 主席威廉姆斯、旧金山联储主席戴利纷纷为降息预期降温。关税对通胀的实际影响仍有待观 察，7 月议息会议前，美国就业和通胀数据将提供重要依据。此外，市场也在关注美联储" 影 子主席人选"，特朗普偏好的更" 鸽派"的" 影子主席"会导致更激进的降息前景。影响黄金 走势的中短期因素多空交织，短期黄金或继续震荡整理。但中长期央行购金、美国高财政赤 字、美元走弱等趋势未变，黄金长期牛市格局不改。建议关注：紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰 黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：库存结构性短缺，警惕逼仓风险。①宏观方面：地缘与关税边际缓和、 美联储部分官员释放降息信号，宏观对铜的压制近期有所缓解；②库存端：本周全球铜库存 50.3 万吨，环比-1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained upward trend in gold prices driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures and geopolitical issues, while silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth [1][2] - The report predicts that the precious metals market will continue to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, with gold's price center expected to rise due to multiple converging factors [2][3] - Silver's supply-demand dynamics are projected to maintain a deficit throughout the year, creating a favorable environment for price increases, especially as the gold-silver ratio is expected to converge downward during the easing cycle [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is anticipated to experience price increases due to a combination of limited supply and low inventory levels, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are expected to see demand elasticity release [2][3] - The report highlights that the global economy is likely to remain in a loose monetary environment, which will support industrial metal prices and enhance demand driven by domestic policy [2][3] - The energy metals sector is currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although the overall supply-demand balance is still skewed towards excess [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and expected volume growth in the coming years, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and Zhongjin Resources [4]

证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy metals sector, specifically lithium, cobalt, and nickel, highlighting the current market dynamics and future projections for these metals [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments Lithium Market - Current lithium industry profitability is low, with less than 30% of production capacity profitable, and most capacities are operating at a loss [2][3]. - The price of lithium carbonate has reached around 60,000 CNY/ton, nearing the industry’s 90th percentile cash cost line, indicating strong cost support [2][11]. - A significant supply adjustment is expected, with forecasts for global lithium supply in 2025 and 2026 being revised down by approximately 200,000 tons each year due to operational pressures in Australia and Africa [3][10]. - The anticipated supply surplus for 2025 is about 120,000 tons, but a reversal in supply dynamics is expected by 2027 [10]. Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban, leading to a domestic shortage of cobalt raw materials, which is expected to drive prices significantly higher [2][13]. - The DRC accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt production, and its firm pricing stance may lead to a substantial increase in cobalt prices in the long term [2][14][21]. - The cobalt market is projected to shift from a surplus of 60,000 tons to a shortage of about 40,000 tons if the DRC maintains its export ban [21][36]. Nickel Market - Nickel prices are currently supported around 15,000 USD/ton due to strong cost support, despite weak demand from stainless steel and battery sectors [22][23]. - The Indonesian nickel market remains tight, with significant regulatory impacts on supply and pricing [24][25]. - Future nickel production is expected to grow by about 10% in 2025, but the market faces substantial supply pressures [25][27]. Additional Important Insights - South American lithium projects are facing underestimated cost structures, which may hinder future supply growth [4][5]. - Australian lithium mines are under significant operational pressure, with potential for further production halts if prices remain low [6][12]. - The domestic mica mining sector in China is experiencing severe cost pressures, leading to potential market exits for high-cost producers [9]. - The overall cash cost for lithium production in 2025 is projected to be around 60,000 CNY/ton, indicating substantial financial strain across the industry [11]. Investment Considerations - Investment strategies in the lithium sector should focus on companies with strong cost advantages and diversified business models to withstand short-term market pressures [29]. - Companies like Zande Mining and Zhongkuang Resources are highlighted for their growth potential in lithium and copper, with significant profit contributions expected from their operations [30][31]. Conclusion - The energy metals sector is currently navigating through a challenging landscape characterized by cost pressures, regulatory impacts, and shifting supply-demand dynamics. The outlook for cobalt appears particularly strong, while lithium and nickel markets are expected to undergo significant adjustments in the coming years [35][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent rise in gold prices is supported by increased risk aversion due to global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data from the US. Additionally, the temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo has tightened supply, making precious metals and rare earths key investment opportunities [5][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review (2025.6.09-2025.6.20) - The Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 0.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index and ranking 5th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. Energy metals (1.54%) and metal new materials (0.90%) saw the highest gains, while precious metals and small metals changed by 0.54% and -2.00%, respectively [2][14]. Precious Metals - As of June 20, COMEX gold closed at $3,384.40 per ounce, up 1.60% over the past two weeks and 26.70% year-to-date. COMEX silver closed at $35.95 per ounce, down 0.50% over the same period but up 19.89% year-to-date. The report suggests that geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties will continue to support gold prices, while silver may have further upside potential due to its undervaluation [3][22][25]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,945 per ton, up 1.53% over the past two weeks and 14.50% year-to-date. LME aluminum closed at $2,529 per ton, up 4.01% over the same period but down 0.28% year-to-date. The report indicates that copper's supply-demand dynamics remain supportive, while aluminum faces challenges from seasonal demand fluctuations [29][32]. Small Metals - As of June 20, black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 172,000 CNY per ton, down 0.58% over the past two weeks but up 20.28% year-to-date. LME tin closed at $32,690 per ton, up 1.35% over the same period and 15.82% year-to-date. The report notes that the antimony market is experiencing weak demand, while tungsten prices may trend higher due to stable consumption [35][36]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was reported at 182.17, down 0.70% over the past two weeks but up 11.23% year-to-date. The report highlights a mixed performance in rare earth prices, with light rare earths showing slight declines while others remain stable due to steady demand from traditional sectors [46][47]. Energy Metals - As of June 20, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 234,500 CNY per ton, down 0.02% over the past two weeks but up 36.73% year-to-date. The report emphasizes the impact of the extended cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo on supply dynamics [53][56].

A股收评：三大股指午后走强集体收涨 两市超4200只个股收红 金十数据6月23日讯，A股三大股指早盘低开高走，午后强势冲高，沪指一度涨近0.8%，截至收盘，沪 指涨0.65%，深证成指涨0.43%，创业板指涨0.39%；沪深两市全天成交额超1.1万亿，沪深两市超4200只 个股飘红。盘面上，大市多数板块飘红，能源金属板块全天强势，跨境支付板块午后拉升冲高，四方精 创20CM涨停，月内累涨超90%。航运、军工板块表现亮眼。白酒板块延续低迷态势全天水下震荡，迎 驾贡酒、山西汾酒等跌幅居前。 ...