1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity overview of various sectors on March 11, 2026, including the trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on the trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio of multiple sectors, including the stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 11, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 594.021 billion yuan, a - 19.49% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1542.694 billion yuan, a - 1.06% change; the trading - position ratio was 37.62% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On March 11, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 270.572 billion yuan, a - 25.49% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 858.720 billion yuan, a - 0.41% change; the trading - position ratio was 30.70% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On March 11, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 474.404 billion yuan, a - 23.82% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 670.087 billion yuan, a + 0.36% change; the trading - position ratio was 76.40%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 574.443 billion yuan, a - 12.86% change; the position amount was 520.195 billion yuan, a + 2.86% change; the trading - position ratio was 125.48% [1] V. Energy - Chemical Plate - On March 11, 2026, the trading volume of the energy - chemical plate was 1182.145 billion yuan, a - 30.02% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 541.900 billion yuan, a + 2.69% change; the trading - position ratio was 202.89% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On March 11, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 474.275 billion yuan, a + 5.90% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 660.571 billion yuan, a + 2.05% change; the trading - position ratio was 75.85% [1] VII. Black Building Material Plate - On March 11, 2026, the trading volume of the black building material plate was 152.330 billion yuan, a - 31.97% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 320.648 billion yuan, a + 0.44% change; the trading - position ratio was 46.69% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming "Explore the Museum Fun Investment Education" event at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) from March 15 to 17, aimed at enhancing public awareness of investment risks and self-protection capabilities through interactive and engaging educational activities [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by Zhengzhou Future Financial Services Co., Ltd. in collaboration with the Futures Daily, utilizing the ZCE's physical investor education base to promote futures and derivatives knowledge among the younger generation and the public [1]. - The event will feature a series of innovative, interactive challenges designed to transform traditional one-way education into an immersive learning experience, allowing participants to engage actively and learn about rational investment concepts [3][4]. Group 2: Venue and Features - The ZCE's physical investor education base, located on the 6th and 7th floors of the Future Building in Zhengzhou, has been transformed from a former trading hall into a comprehensive educational platform that is free and open to the public [5]. - The base includes five main exhibition areas showcasing the history, mechanisms, legal frameworks, and contributions of the Chinese futures market to the real economy, utilizing various interactive formats such as VR experiences and simulated trading [5][6]. Group 3: Participation Process - Participants must complete a reservation through the ZCE's WeChat public account, verify their attendance at the navigation station, and engage in activities to earn rewards [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年3月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日十四届全国人大四次会议下午闭幕，美国1月新屋开工、营建许可、 贸易帐，美联储委员讲话。昨日早间IEA宣布创纪录的原油储备释放，特朗普再暗示 战争将很快结束，但市场情绪提振有限，美元回升，金价震荡收跌。沪金溢价扩大 至3.9元/克。油价担忧再升温，风险偏好降温，金价震荡。 白银 1、基本面：美国CPI相对温和，IEA宣布创纪录的原油储备释放，未能提振市场情 绪，银价回落；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For the stock market, in the short - term, if the current conflict ends quickly, its impact on the A - share market is limited; if it turns into a long - term war, it may shock global stock markets. In the medium - term, the A - share market is likely to remain volatile with increased volatility. Since December last year, A - share technology themes have outperformed US - listed Chinese concept stocks and the Hang Seng Technology Index, and the RMB has been appreciating, which may support the A - share market in the first half of 2026. However, concerns about AI crowding out the traditional economy may amplify market volatility [1]. - For the bond market, the reasonable and abundant capital and the weak economic recovery are the core supports for the bond market. The improvement of inflation data and cautious interest - rate cuts limit the bond market's upward momentum. The bond market maintains a low - interest - rate environment and a range - bound pattern [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, and the ChiNext Index rose and then fell. About 3300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets declined, with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.31%. The short - and medium - term impacts on the A - share market are as mentioned above [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.19%, 0.04%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 26.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase on March 11, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. The capital market is reasonably abundant, and the bond market is in a range - bound state [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.08%, IF rose 0.49%, IC fell 0.40%, and IM fell 0.01% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.12%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.64%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.08%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.16% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.04%, and TL fell 0.22% [3]. Market News - **Overall Trend**: The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, and the ChiNext Index rose and then fell. About 3300 stocks declined, with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.31% [4]. - **Industry Sectors**: Photovoltaic, energy storage, lithium - battery, and chemical sectors led the gains, while military, small - metal, semiconductor, and Hainan Free - Trade - Zone sectors led the losses [4]. - **Popular Concepts**: Photovoltaic and energy - storage sectors strengthened, with many stocks hitting the daily limit. The lithium - battery sector rose, and chemical stocks rebounded. Power and grid stocks were active, while the semiconductor sector adjusted [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [12][14][15][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB, including spot and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index and the euro - US dollar exchange rate [20][21][24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market has both supply and demand increasing. Downstream continuous restocking supports prices. Under the pressure of risk aversion, the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - The new energy vehicle market in January 2026 was operating steadily, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 945,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and 1.6% respectively. In January, new energy vehicle exports maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 vehicles exported, a year - on - year doubling [3]. - Affected by the escalation of the US - Iran situation, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds has increased. Coupled with the large increase in lithium carbonate prices in the early stage, there is a need for funds to take profits in the short term, which has led to a decline in lithium carbonate prices [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 159,000 yuan with an increase of 500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 155,750 yuan with an increase of 500 yuan [1]. - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2603 is 155,000 yuan with a decline of 5.5%; lithium carbonate 2604 is 156,000 yuan with a decline of 4.12%; lithium carbonate 2605 is 155,040 yuan with a decline of 5.14%; lithium carbonate 2606 is 154,640 yuan with a decline of 5.64%; lithium carbonate 2607 is 154,880 yuan with a decline of 5.03% [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 2,215 yuan with an increase of 2 yuan [1]. - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,440 yuan with a decrease of 40 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 5,140 yuan with a decrease of 60 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 13,175 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 14,350 yuan [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 55,720 yuan with an increase of 125 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 212,250 yuan with an increase of 750 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 184,500 yuan with an increase of 1,250 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 186,000 yuan with an increase of 1,250 yuan [2]. Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,250 yuan with no change; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,960 yuan with an increase of 8,460 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 960 yuan with an increase of 1,840 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1,360 yuan with an increase of 2,000 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 99,373 tons with a decrease of 720 - 906 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 17,476 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 43,757 tons with an increase of 3,736 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,140 tons with a decrease of 3,550 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 36,739 tons with a decrease of 280 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 157,782 yuan, and the profit is - 855 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 153,505 yuan, and the profit is 21 yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts are disrupting the global supply chain, with the Red Sea crisis and new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz causing shipping disruptions. The impact on global trade is substantial, and the situation in the region continues to escalate [1]. - Domestic automobile production and sales have declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, indicating that domestic demand recovery still faces pressure. The US core CPI remains stable, leaving room for monetary policy adjustment [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts and insufficient economic growth momentum are the main challenges for the current global economy. The stability of the supply chain and changes in terminal demand need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose 7%. The IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves. There are differences in stances between the US and Iran regarding the end of military operations. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week, with commercial crude oil inventories down 1.7 million barrels as of March 6, 2026 [2][13]. - **European Line**: EC rose 7.15%. Maersk's new cabin in the 13th week quotes a 20 - foot container to Rotterdam at $2200, while MSC slightly increased the price by $100 to $2740 in the second half of March. The average price of 20 - foot containers in the 12th week is around $2600, corresponding to an index of 1730 points. As the short - term geopolitical impact eases, the European line is expected to return to seasonal pricing [3][34]. - **Stock Index**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined. The previous trading day saw a rise in the stock index, with the coal sector leading the gain and the comprehensive sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.53 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 9.773 billion yuan on March 10. As annual and first - quarter reports are gradually disclosed, industry leaders with strong performance certainty will attract funds, and the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". In the long run, the stock index will return to domestic fundamentals and policies, and is expected to resume an upward trend after geopolitical risks ease [3][10]. 3.2 Daily News 3.2.1 International News - The UN Security Council passed Resolution 2817 on March 12, condemning Iran's attacks on multiple Gulf countries and demanding an immediate halt. Russia and China abstained. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have severely damaged multiple US military bases in the Gulf. US President Trump said the military operation against Iran is "about to end", and Israel's Foreign Minister said Israel does not seek an "endless war" with Iran [6]. 3.2.2 Domestic News - The People's Bank of China held a science and technology work meeting on March 11, 2026, summarizing 2025 work and deploying 2026 tasks. It emphasized promoting the application of artificial intelligence in the financial field in a safe and orderly manner [7]. 3.2.3 Industry News - In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, down 31.7% and 23.1% month - on - month, and 20.5% and 15.2% year - on - year. Automobile exports were 672,000 vehicles, down 1.4% month - on - month but up 52.4% year - on - year [8]. 3.3 External Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.08%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.98%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 2.44%, London gold decreased by 0.14%, London silver decreased by 2.96%, LME aluminum increased by 1.65%, LME copper decreased by 0.43%, LME zinc decreased by 0.75%, LME tin increased by 0.92%, ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 0.70%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.03%, CBOT soybeans increased by 1.29%, CBOT soybean meal increased by 1.41%, CBOT soybean oil increased by 4.15%, CBOT wheat remained unchanged, and CBOT corn increased by 1.95% [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". Stocks without performance support may be weak, while policy - beneficiary and performance - improving sectors may have sustainable opportunities. In the long run, the stock index will return to domestic fundamentals and policies and is expected to resume an upward trend after geopolitical risks ease [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond rising to 1.8175%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1.4 billion yuan. The US February 2026 non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since December 2025. Global risk - aversion sentiment increased due to the Middle East situation, pushing up inflation expectations and US bond yields. The domestic CPI and PPI increased more than expected. The government's bond issuance scale is large, and the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. Short - term treasury bond futures are supported, while long - term ones are under pressure [11][12]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Similar to the key varieties section, SC night trading rose 7%, and there are uncertainties in the end of the US - Iran military operation. The G7 has not reached an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves, and US crude oil inventories decreased [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading rose 4.34%. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also decreased. Coastal methanol inventories increased, and the expected import volume from March 6 to 22 is 260,000 - 270,000 tons [14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded on Wednesday. It is in the low - production season, with domestic and Thai production areas in a state of suspension. The supply elasticity is weak, and raw rubber prices are relatively firm. Demand is expected to recover after the holiday, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices rebounded on Wednesday. The spot prices of PE and PP mostly rebounded. The Middle East situation is changeable, and the macro environment has a great impact on the chemical industry [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mostly rebounded. Glass production enterprise inventories increased after the long holiday, and soda ash production enterprise inventories also increased. There is pressure to digest inventories in both industries, and they should respond rationally to the macro impact [17][18]. 3.4.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals fluctuated and adjusted. The US February CPI was in line with expectations, and inflation expectations cooled after Trump's statement. In the long run, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, and de - dollarization [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.16% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The smelting output is still growing. Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be noted [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.04% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the smelting output continued to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is high. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be noted [21]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum rose 0.68% at night. The US - Iran conflict poses risks to overseas primary aluminum supply. The Strait of Hormuz blockade may cause a regional supply crisis. In the short term, the market is driven by geopolitics, and in the long run, low inventories, supply constraints, and stable demand support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term popularity of lithium carbonate has decreased. The conflict between Iran and Israel has little impact on it. The price will return to the supply - demand fundamentals in the long run and is expected to rise [23][24]. 3.4.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The coking coal supply increased, and the iron - making output decreased due to environmental protection restrictions. The coking coal fundamentals weakened. As the resumption of work progresses, the iron - making output is expected to increase, supporting the price. Geopolitical factors may also push up the value of energy - related commodities [25]. - **Steel**: The Iran - Israel conflict has limited direct impact on domestic steel futures. The core driver of steel prices is domestic demand and the resumption of production of steel mills. The conflict indirectly supports the cost of raw materials, which may drive steel prices to stop falling in the short term, but the long - term trend will return to domestic supply - demand fundamentals [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The conflict mainly affects iron ore through short - term sentiment and cost support. It may reduce the supply and increase the import cost. The price may stop falling in the short term, and the high port inventory should be rationally viewed [27]. 3.4.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slower than the same period. The USDA report is neutral - bullish. The increase in shipping costs supports the price, but the abundant domestic soybean and meal inventories will limit the upward space in the medium term [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils fluctuated weakly at night. The Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and imports in February changed, and the inventory decreased less than expected. The weak export and falling crude oil prices dragged down the performance of edible oils, and the short - term price volatility is expected to be large [29][30]. - **Hogs**: The national hog market continued to adjust weakly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The breeding profit improved marginally [31]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated in a range. The Iran situation may affect the ethanol - to - sugar price and the sugar - making ratio. The Brazilian production forecast may be adjusted, and the domestic sugar price is boosted by the external market [32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose and then fell, with the price center moving up. The Middle East situation has an impact, but the long - term supply - demand situation is tight, and the price may rise [33]. 3.4.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: Similar to the key varieties section, EC rose 7.15%. Maersk quotes a lower price, and MSC slightly increased the price. As the short - term geopolitical impact eases, the European line is expected to return to seasonal pricing [3][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical disturbances are still fermenting, and the international oil price will continue to be highly volatile. The US inflation data is in line with expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. The A - share market is likely to maintain a volatile and sector - differentiated pattern in the short term, and the bond market is expected to be weakly volatile. Different commodity prices will show different trends affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and inflation expectations [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas, the Middle East conflict continues. Iran warns that oil prices may rise to $200 per barrel, and the IEA plans to release a record 4 billion barrels of reserves. The US 2 - month CPI data is in line with expectations, with the core CPI at a five - year low. The US stock market is weakly volatile, the US dollar index rises, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounds. Domestically, the A - share market closes higher with reduced trading volume, and the bond market continues to weaken [2][3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally close down. The latest US CPI data shows that inflation continues to cool, which cools the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and strengthens the US dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. Although the release of oil reserves weakens the inflation logic, the Middle East geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain, and it is difficult to form a trend - based market for now [4][5] Copper - LME copper fluctuates around $13,000. The US inflation is in line with expectations, and the cost - transfer signs of tariffs are emerging. The Iranian - US conflict has uncertain directions, and the large - scale fluctuations in oil prices may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut space this year. Fundamentally, the supply growth rate of copper concentrates is low, and the domestic social inventory starts to be destocked. It is expected that copper prices will remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7] Aluminum - The price increase of aluminum slows down. Trump indicates that the military action against Iran is "about to end", but the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. It is expected that the upward trend of aluminum prices will slow down. If the strait is restricted for more than 4 weeks, there may be a shortage of raw material alumina in the Middle East, leading to passive production cuts [8][9] Alumina - The domestic supply - demand of alumina is relatively stable recently. The supply - side operating rate remains flat, and the consumption - side electrolytic aluminum enterprises resume most long - term order purchases. Overseas alumina prices fall, but freight prices rise. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [10] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum runs strongly. The Middle East geopolitical situation disturbs the market, and the price of primary aluminum remains strong. Although the supply of scrap aluminum has improved significantly, the price of scrap aluminum also rises with the increase of primary aluminum. The cost support of cast aluminum is strong, and it is expected to run strongly, but the sustainability depends on the realization of the consumption peak season [11] Zinc - The zinc price shows a volatile pattern. The US core inflation slows down, and the market expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September. The release of oil reserves fails to effectively relieve inflation concerns, and the US dollar strengthens, suppressing metals. The downstream consumption improvement is not obvious, and the inventory remains high, but the overseas zinc ore supply tightens, and the processing fees are under pressure. The zinc price has support at the bottom, and the short - term contradiction is not prominent, maintaining a volatile pattern [12] Lead - The lead price stabilizes. After the lead price falls, the downstream battery enterprises' purchase at low prices improves, but the high inventory and the inflow pressure of crude lead restrain the lead price. The short - term futures price is difficult to change the low - level volatile pattern [13] Tin - The tin price fluctuates narrowly. Investors are vigilant about the further escalation of the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index rises after a fall, and risk assets are under pressure. The downstream demand is average, and the inventory reduction in China needs to be observed. The supply - side concerns are alleviated, and the fundamental support weakens. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [14] Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates strongly. The US inflation is in line with expectations, but the Iranian - US conflict is uncertain, and the large - scale fluctuations in oil prices may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut space. The shipping obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz affects Indonesia's sulfur imports, increasing the production cost of nickel. The downstream steel mills enter the peak season, but the actual production may be lower than expected. It is expected that the nickel price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [15][16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures fluctuate and rebound. The spot market trading shows signs of recovery. The downstream construction sites resume work, and the steel demand enters the release channel. The supply side also recovers, but the steel mills' production - increasing motivation is insufficient due to limited profit margins, and the inventory starts to decline. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate and rebound [17] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures fluctuate strongly. After the Two Sessions, steel mills resume production, and the iron - water output rises, supporting the ore price. The overseas shipment decreases this week, but the arrival increases, and the domestic mines also resume production. The port inventory remains at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate and rebound [18] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply recovers rapidly, the production increases steadily, and the inventory accumulates. After the first - round price cut of coke, the profit margin of coke enterprises narrows, and the production - increasing motivation is not strong. With the end of the Two Sessions, steel mills are expected to resume production, and the demand for coke increases. It is expected that coking coal and coke will run in a volatile manner [19] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal futures fluctuate strongly. Although the IEA plans to release strategic reserves, the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz dominates, and the oil price rises, boosting the US soybean market. The estimated soybean arrival in March is low, and the supply is tight. The import cost rises, and the domestic soybean meal valuation increases. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [20][21] Palm Oil - The palm oil futures fluctuate strongly. The US core inflation slows down as expected, but the post - war impact is not reflected, and the inflation may heat up later. The IEA plans to release reserves, but the oil price still runs strongly due to the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz. If the oil price remains high, Indonesia may restart the B50 policy this year. The palm oil production in Malaysia increases in early March, but the export demand increases more. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the US - Iran conflict, have significant impacts on the markets, causing price fluctuations in energy, metals, and agricultural products. The supply - demand relationship, cost factors, and inventory levels also play crucial roles in determining the price trends of different commodities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Macro changes and raw material contradictions support prices, but high inventory remains a constraint. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 136,000 - 145,000 [2][37] - **PX**: Short - term prices are dominated by oil prices with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see and go long at low prices after the market stabilizes [3][101] - **Silicon Iron**: The market sentiment is volatile, with both supply and demand increasing. The price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,700 - 6,200 [4][68] - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA March supply - demand report has limited impact. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with a strengthening basis [5][74] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a mixed trend on Wednesday. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell differently. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread of far - month put options with a low position, with a neutral - oscillatory view [6][7][9] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to oscillate for a long time in the range of 5,000 - 5,250 dollars. Silver prices may still have downward pressure, and platinum and palladium prices have certain support [10][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot copper supply is tight, and the spot premium is strengthening. In the short term, the price oscillates around 100,000 yuan/ton, and in the long term, the price center is expected to rise [15][18] Alumina - The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the spot price is rising. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to go short at high prices [19][20] Aluminum - Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price oscillates at a high level. In the short term, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [22][24] Aluminum Alloy - The social inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The price oscillates strongly in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [24][26] Zinc - The price oscillates narrowly. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [27][30] Tin - The price is greatly affected by short - term market sentiment. In the long term, it is still optimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [31][35] Nickel - The situation is similar to that in the daily selection, with high inventory constraining the upward movement, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [36][38] Stainless Steel - The price oscillates due to geopolitical disturbances. The cost provides support, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 [38][40] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price falls. The fundamentals are resilient but lack strong driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 150,000 - 165,000 [41][44] Polysilicon - The spot market is weak, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The long - term photovoltaic demand may be favorable, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][47] Industrial Silicon - The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in March, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cost and market situation [48][50] Ferrous Metals Steel - The steel price center rises, and it is expected to oscillate in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in steel exports and the price pressure levels [50][53] Iron Ore - The price may oscillate strongly in the range of 750 - 820 due to geopolitical impacts and supply - demand changes [55][56] Coking Coal - The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price rebounds. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the 2605 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke [57][61] Coke - The futures price rebounds. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the 2605 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke [62][66] Silicon Iron - Similar to the daily selection, the price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,700 - 6,200 [67][68] Manganese Silicon - The price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,800 - 6,400 due to cost - pushing and supply - demand changes [69][71] Agricultural Products Meal - The USDA March report has limited impact, and the market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with a strengthening basis [72][74] Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure is high, and the price is expected to continue to bottom out, with the possibility of further decline in the near - month [75][76] Corn - The price oscillates at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting. It is necessary to pay attention to the specific supply and policy release [77][79] Sugar - The international and domestic sugar markets have different trends. The domestic market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [80] Cotton - The cotton price shows a strong trend. The domestic and international markets have different situations, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and planting policies [82] Eggs - The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [86][87] Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the Middle East situation and supply rumors, and rapeseed oil oscillates in a range [88][91] Red Dates - The spot market improves, and the futures price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to operate in a short - term band with strict risk control [92][93] Apples - The spot trading is weak, and the futures price oscillates and falls. It is necessary to pay attention to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes [94][96] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The short - term price decline space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [97][98] PX - Short - term prices are dominated by oil prices with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see and go long at low prices after the market stabilizes [100][101] PTA - The supply - demand drive is limited, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to oil prices [102][103] Short - fiber - The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream cost transmission [104][105] Bottle Chips - The supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and pay attention to the processing fee pressure [106][107] Ethylene Glycol - The supply - demand is expected to improve in March, and the price may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [108][109] Pure Benzene - The short - term price follows the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see and shrink the spread between pure benzene and styrene at high prices [110] Styrene - The short - term price follows the oil price. It is recommended to operate similarly to pure benzene and pay attention to the downstream recovery and the Strait of Hormuz passage [111][112] LLDPE - The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to supply contraction and demand recovery expectations. It is necessary to track the cost and demand [114] PP - The supply - demand balance improves, and the price is strong. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting from the 5 - 9 positive spread [115] Methanol - The price oscillates widely due to geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting from long positions [115] Caustic Soda - The price rises due to geopolitical disturbances. The supply - demand is weak, and it is necessary to be vigilant against price drops after the situation eases [116][117] PVC - The price fluctuates emotionally due to cost concerns. It may be passively pushed up in the short term [118][119] Urea - The cost drives the price, and the fundamentals change little. The price is strong in the short term but may decline later. It is recommended to follow the crude oil series with a long - at - low strategy [120][121] Soda Ash - The supply and inventory are high, and the demand is average. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [122][125] Glass - The cost provides support, and the demand improves. It is necessary to pay attention to de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [122][126] Natural Rubber - The price oscillates widely due to the impact of oil prices. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500, and it is recommended to wait and see [126][129] Synthetic Rubber - The price of BR rebounds due to expected raw material shortages. It is recommended to lightly go long on the spread between RU2605 and BR2605 at low prices [129][132] Container Shipping to Europe - The price is pushed up by the fuel surcharge. It is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 1,700 - 2,100. It is recommended to pay attention to the 6 - 10 positive spread entry opportunity [133][134]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][6][7] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; Rebar is for range trading; Glass is recommended to short on rallies [1][10][11][13] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading in the range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; Aluminum is advised to strengthen observation; Nickel is recommended to hold moderately on dips; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are expected to move in a range; Lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1][15][18][20] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish in a range; Rubber is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs; Urea and methanol are for range trading; Soda ash is recommended to short on rallies [1][27][30][31] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and apples are expected to be bullish in a range; Red dates are expected to move in a range [1][40][42][43] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, take a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 with a range - bound view; Eggs are expected to move in a range; Corn is bullish in a range, be cautious about chasing highs at high levels; For soybean meal 05, be cautiously bullish; Oils are expected to be bullish in a range, with a strategy of rolling long on soybean and palm oils [1][45][46][48] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex, affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, inflation, and Fed's interest - rate policies. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [6][16][23] - For most futures varieties, the current market is in a state of dynamic balance, with both upward and downward pressures. Investment decisions need to comprehensively consider multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost [10][16][27] Summaries by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The US inflation is cooling, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is weakening, and the index futures may be under pressure in the short - term, but are long - term bullish [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts and interest - rate cuts is over. The market will focus on institutional behavior at the end of the quarter and overseas situation changes. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [7] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but the trading atmosphere is weak. Downstream demand is slow to recover, and short - term trading is recommended [10] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is oscillating strongly. The valuation is low, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish in a range, depending on the demand recovery progress [11] - **Glass**: Supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand is less than expected. The price is expected to have limited upward space, and shorting on rallies is recommended [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level range and weakening. Macro factors suppress the price, but supply and consumption expectations support it. Short - term range trading or waiting and seeing is recommended, paying attention to war factors and inventory changes [15][16] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level range. The supply and demand situation is complex, affected by the Middle - East situation. Strengthening observation is recommended, and pay attention to the inflection point of inventory [17][18] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the price is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to hold moderately on dips [19][20] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [21] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and interest - rate cut expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see and trade cautiously [23][24] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the export ban in Zimbabwe and the disturbance in Yichun's mining end [25][26] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. In the short - term, it is bullish in a range, and attention should be paid to policies and risk events [27] - **Caustic Soda**: The demand from Guangxi's alumina production provides support, and the export is increasing. The price is expected to be bullish in a range, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply - side maintenance, and downstream replenishment [30] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and export, the price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs, and pay attention to raw material prices and inventory [31] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the cost is supported. The supply and demand are improving marginally, and the price is expected to be bullish [33] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs, and pay attention to inventory and demand [34] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [36] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iran conflict, the supply may be in short - supply. The demand from the olefin industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [37] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [39] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing. After the festival, the consumption expectation is rising, and the price is expected to be bullish in a range [40] - **Apples**: The trading is stable, the price of farmers' goods is stable, and the sales in the sales area are okay. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [42] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the price is expected to move in a range [43] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price is bottom - oscillating. For contracts 05 and 07, take a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it with a range - bound view [44][45] - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is in the transition from the off - season to the normal state. The price is expected to move in a range, and shorting on rallies for near - month contracts can be considered [46] - **Corn**: The spot price is bullish in the short - term, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Be cautious about chasing highs at high levels [48] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as the US - China talks and South American production, the 05 contract should be cautiously bullish [49] - **Oils**: Affected by the international crude oil price, the price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to roll long on soybean and palm oils [50][51][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see; in the medium and long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 11, the A - share market showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25% to 4133.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78% to 14465.41 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.31% to 3349.53 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.37% to 1401.08 points. Market turnover was 25,283 billion yuan, an increase of 111.5 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+2.53%), power equipment (+2.43%), and basic chemicals (+2.08%) performed well; comprehensive (-1.98%), national defense and military industry (-1.37%), and media (-1.17%) performed averagely [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IF > IM > IH > IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,055, 146, and 3,284 respectively. Net capital inflows of institutions, main players, large investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 4.9 billion yuan, - 14.4 billion yuan, 0.8 billion yuan, and 18.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 16.2 billion yuan, - 3.2 billion yuan, + 14.1 billion yuan, and + 5.2 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 118.53, 86.53, 36.5, and 1.94 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.12%, - 9.53%, - 7.18%, and - 0.6% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 25%, 24%, 15%, and 43% respectively [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 11, treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.04%, and TL fell 0.19% [3] - For the current active 2606 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of + 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.029, and an IRR of 1.36%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250014.IB, with a yield change of + 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.018, and an IRR of 1.4%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 250025.IB, with a yield change of + 0.6 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.002, and an IRR of 1.47%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 220008.IB, with a yield change of + 1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.06, and an IRR of 1.29% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 26.5 billion yuan and withdrew 40.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the prosperity of various sectors declined slightly [9]