Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Pacific Securities is that there are three main lines in the market, with various sectors showing signs of recovery, particularly in areas like photovoltaic, pig farming, and glass, which are at historical lows and present opportunities for active participation [3] - The second main line involves sectors undergoing significant industrial transitions, such as solid-state batteries and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - The third main line focuses on high-dividend sectors, particularly coal, which benefits from anti-involution policies, and energy sectors supported by oil prices remaining above $40, alongside banks and insurance benefiting from changes in fund inflows [3] Group 2 - According to Caixin Securities, the A-share market is expected to operate with a strong oscillation trend, transitioning from a "weight-based" to a "theme-based" market, with structural opportunities emerging [4][5] - The macroeconomic environment shows no significant negative factors before August, indicating a new bullish window, with improved investor sentiment and incoming funds providing upward momentum for indices [5] - The implementation of anti-involution policies could alleviate the "increasing revenue without increasing profit" dilemma for companies, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [5] Group 3 - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes that the technology growth sector remains a long-term mainstay in the market, driven by policy support and industrial upgrades, with areas like AI computing, robotics, and semiconductors showing long-term development potential [6] - The recommendation is to focus on high-performing value stocks within the technology sector, targeting high-growth sub-sectors while managing overall risk [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Global risk appetite has increased due to better - than - expected US retail and employment data, while in China, although H1 economic growth exceeded expectations, consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures such as "anti - involution" and "stable employment" can boost domestic risk preference in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; bonds are at a high level and oscillating; different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term investment suggestions being cautious [2]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas: US economic data is strong, with the June retail sales monthly rate at 0.6% (higher than the expected 0.1%), which supports the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts, and the US dollar strengthens. - Domestic: H1 economic growth exceeded expectations, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policies like "anti - involution" and "stable employment" can boost domestic risk preference. - Asset operations: Stocks are recommended for short - term cautious long positions; bonds for short - term high - level oscillation and cautious observation; different commodity sectors have corresponding short - term operations [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market rose slightly driven by sectors such as components, fruit chains, and military industries. - The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress, with short - term upward macro - driving forces increasing. - Operation: Short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals showed a differentiated trend. The US economic data was good, and the US dollar strengthened, putting pressure on gold. - In the long - term, the support logic for precious metals remains solid, with factors like the "Big and Beautiful Act" accelerating the consumption of the US dollar's credit and geopolitical uncertainties and economic slowdown expectations strengthening the value of gold allocation. - Operation: Short - term high - level oscillation and cautious long positions [3][4]. Black Metals Soda Ash - On Thursday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton, showing a strong trend. - Supply: Production is stable, but there is an oversupply situation. - Demand: Downstream demand is at a low level, mainly for rigid production. - Profit: Profits decreased week - on - week, with both ammonia - alkali and combined - alkali methods in the red. - Long - term: The price is suppressed due to the loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory [5]. Glass - On Thursday, the main contract of glass was at 1092 yuan/ton, showing a strong trend. - Supply: The daily melting volume increased week - on - week, and there is supply pressure in the off - season. There are expectations of production cuts due to "anti - involution" policies. - Demand: The real estate industry is weak, and demand is hard to improve. - Profit: Profits increased week - on - week. - Long - term: A long - term upward trend requires the cooperation of downstream demand and the implementation of "anti - involution" policies [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - US PPI is lower than expected, with low inflation pressure, but the economy is still resilient. - The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time. If it is before August 1, copper prices will weaken; if it is in September/October, it will support copper prices [7][8]. Aluminum - China's air - conditioner production in June decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. - Social inventories are still in the process of accumulation, and the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have weakened. - Operation: Look for resistance levels to short after a short - term oscillation [8]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses. - It is in the off - season, and demand is weak. - Short - term: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - Supply: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has recovered slightly, and the supply reduction is lower than expected. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and the order volume has decreased. - Short - term: Prices will oscillate, but in the medium - term, factors like high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand will limit the upward space [9][10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 2.47%. - Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to oscillate strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy. - Attention should be paid to macro - disturbances [10]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose by 0.75%. - Affected by the "anti - involution" theme, it is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the main contract of polysilicon rose by 7.24%. - Affected by policy news, the expectations for industrial silicon and polysilicon are strong, and short - term verification is difficult. - Operation: Cautiously enter long positions [12]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Short - term supply is tight, with a decrease in US crude oil inventories and a reduction in Iraq's crude oil production. - US economic data is good, alleviating concerns about weak demand. - Short - term: The tight pattern will continue, but there is a risk of weakening in the medium - to - long - term [13]. Asphalt - The price follows the cost of crude oil and oscillates, but the short - term demand is average, and the upward space is limited. - The shipment volume has decreased, and the inventory is starting to accumulate. - Attention should be paid to inventory destocking in the future [13]. PX - Crude oil prices are rising slightly, but PX prices are limited by the negative feedback from the polyester sector. - Although the downstream PTA start - up rate has increased, there is a possibility of weakening demand in the future. - Short - term: It will oscillate weakly, but there is limited downward driving force [14]. PTA - After the improvement of spot liquidity, the futures price is under pressure, and the basis and monthly spread have weakened. - The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continues, and the inventory has increased. - Short - term: The upward space is limited, and there is a risk of the price center moving down [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The futures price is fluctuating around the support level, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. - Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. - Short - term: It will continue to oscillate weakly [15][16]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber has decreased slightly following the trend of the polyester sector. - Terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. - Medium - term: It will oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland devices has increased supply, and there are rumors of olefin device maintenance. - The futures price is affected by positive factors at home and abroad, with the 09 contract expected to oscillate and the 01 contract having long - position opportunities [16]. PP - Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season and weakening. - The price center is expected to move down, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [16]. LLDPE - It is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Although the number of maintenance has increased, the inventory is rising. - Short - term: It may rebound, but the space is limited; in the medium - to - long - term, the price center will move down [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - New - season US soybean exports exceeded expectations, and technical buying continued to drive up the price. - The 2024/25 and 2025/26 market - year export sales data showed different trends [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The M09 contract of domestic soybean meal continued to be strong, and the dynamic cost is expected to be strong. - The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to the Sino - US soybean trade relationship. - Rapeseed meal has seen a significant increase in positions, but the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is loose, but the far - month supply pressure is fully priced, and the monthly spread has rebounded. - If Australia's rapeseed imports are fully liberalized, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply chain may become more stable, and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure [19]. Palm Oil - Indonesia has increased the biodiesel blending ratio, and the consumption of palm oil for biodiesel has increased significantly. - The reference price of Malaysian palm oil has been raised, and the export tax will increase. - The import demand of India is strong, and the export situation may improve in the future [20]. Corn - The auction of imported corn and expected auctions of old rice in August may impact corn prices. - Feed enterprises are waiting and watching, mainly for rigid demand. - Futures: After the 09 contract fell below 2300, there is limited willingness to short, and the buying drive is weak [20][21]. Hogs - In early July, large - scale pig farms were holding back sales, but supply recovered in mid - July, and pig prices declined. - Secondary fattening pigs will be concentrated for sale in August. - Demand may increase in late August, and pig prices may be under pressure until early August [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expected by the market has failed to materialize. The overall fundamentals of the black building materials market are weak, but the market sentiment is positive before the Politburo meeting, leading to an increase in futures prices. The market still needs to pay attention to policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, as well as the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for product prices [3]. - In the short term, the prices of various varieties are more influenced by emotions and expectations. The current market is a capital behavior under the improvement of the macro - environment. It is difficult to determine whether the prices have reached the short - term peak. Speculators are advised to treat the current market rationally, while industrial players can consider hedging operations according to their own situations [10][15]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.869%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 10,181 lots in the main contract position. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,292 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton (1.198%), with an increase of 60,284 lots in the main contract position. In the spot market, the rebar prices in Tianjin and Shanghai were 3,180 yuan/ton and 3,220 yuan/ton respectively, with Shanghai's price increasing by 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Lecong and Shanghai were 3,330 yuan/ton and 3,320 yuan/ton respectively, both increasing by 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory increased slightly; for hot - rolled coils, production decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest levels in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 785.50 yuan/ton, up 1.62% (12.50), with an increase of 12,867 lots in the position, changing to 703,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1,155,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.31 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.72% [5]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments remained stable, with a decline in Australian shipments due to port maintenance, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in shipments from non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrival volume continued to increase. The daily average pig iron output was 242,440 tons, an increase of 2,630 tons. Port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Information**: On July 17, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed at 5,794 yuan/ton, up 0.77%. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed at 5,482 yuan/ton, up 1.37%. The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 96 yuan/ton to the futures. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5,470 yuan/ton, with a discount of 12 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. - **Technical and Fundamental Analysis**: Manganese silicon is still in a volatile rebound, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. Ferrosilicon shows a wide - range volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5,600 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. Fundamentally, the industry pattern is over - supplied, future demand is expected to weaken, and there is still room for cost reduction [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Information**: On July 17, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 8,950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 205 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the futures [14]. - **Technical and Fundamental Analysis**: Industrial silicon has broken away from the downward trend since November 2024, and the short - term rebound trend continues. Fundamentally, it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 216,300 heavy boxes (3.22%) to 64.939 million heavy boxes, and the inventory days decreased by 1.0 day to 27.9 days. The supply is stable, demand has certain resilience, and the cost support is strengthened. The short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong, and short positions should be avoided in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 15 yuan to 1,210 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 21,600 tons (1.15%) to 1.9056 million tons. The demand is still sluggish, the supply is loose in the medium term, and the inventory pressure continues to increase. It rebounds in the short term due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to be weak in the medium term [18].

Group 1: Understanding Involution - Involution refers to a form of excessive competition that harms economic development, characterized by a lack of qualitative change and merely quantitative accumulation[4] - The term originated from agricultural production, highlighting the contradiction between population growth and limited land resources, leading to intensified competition for economic opportunities[10] - Involution manifests at various levels, including individual laborers facing high work pressure, intense competition among enterprises, and regional economic conflicts[11] Group 2: Government Actions Against Involution - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024 announced comprehensive measures to address "involution-style" competition, indicating a shift in policy focus[16] - The government aims to promote a unified national market, eliminate local protectionism, and address market fragmentation, which contributes to involution[17] - The Central Finance Committee's meeting on July 1, 2025, emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality, marking a significant step in combating involution[22] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The ongoing anti-involution campaign is expected to transform and boost the Chinese economy over the long term, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics[23] - Industries where China holds a global monopoly, such as photovoltaics, are anticipated to experience stronger anti-involution measures compared to those facing international competition pressures[23] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in both emerging industries and traditional sectors with historical overcapacity issues, such as steel and cement[23] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The progress of anti-involution measures may face delays and challenges due to the need for changes in development concepts and institutional frameworks[24] - Local governments and enterprises may encounter difficulties and resistance in implementing the proposed measures effectively[24]

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1069.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1092.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.06% [1] - According to Wukuang Futures, glass supply remains stable with resilient demand, leading to a continuous decline in inventory and a price level at historical lows, which strengthens cost support [1] - Hualian Futures notes that there were no new production line activations or repairs last week, and the operating rate and weekly output of glass have slightly increased, indicating an improvement in market sales [1] Group 2 - Ningzheng Futures indicates that the current daily melting capacity of float glass enterprises is stable, but terminal demand remains weak, with insufficient orders from downstream processing enterprises [2] - The glass market in East China is operating steadily, with most companies maintaining stable prices for sales, as there has been no substantial improvement in downstream orders [2] - The forecast for the September glass contract suggests short-term fluctuations, with support expected around the 1070 CNY level, recommending a wait-and-see approach or short-term buying on dips [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme has gained significant attention in the A-share market, with various sectors such as steel, photovoltaic, and building materials experiencing substantial growth due to policy-driven changes aimed at reducing disorderly competition [3][5][10]. Market Performance - As of July 17, A-shares opened lower but quickly turned positive, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, led by sectors like innovative drugs, PCB, consumer goods, and photovoltaics [1]. - In the past month, the photovoltaic equipment index increased by 15.55%, while the overall market saw nearly 3,000 stocks rise [7][9]. Sector Analysis - The "anti-involution" theme has led to significant gains in various sectors, with the steel, building materials, and electric equipment industries seeing increases of over 8% in the last 18 trading days [2]. - Key indices reflecting this trend include the circuit board index up by 3.74%, and the glass fiber index up by 20.21% [2][9]. Policy Impact - The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 emphasized the need to build a unified national market and regulate low-price competition, which is expected to guide the "anti-involution" policy across key industries [5][10]. - The current phase of the "anti-involution" market is characterized as a policy-driven expectation stage, with potential for further development depending on the implementation of policies and capacity clearance [3][18]. Investment Opportunities - Investment firms are increasingly focusing on sectors involved in the "anti-involution" theme, particularly those with historically low valuations and significant potential for recovery [12][13]. - Key sectors identified for investment include traditional industries like steel and cement, as well as emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [10][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" market could evolve through three stages: initial policy-driven expectations, followed by resource price increases, and finally, sustained high prices [3][18]. - The current market is still in the expectation phase, and future developments will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation and the recovery of corporate profits [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a blast furnace operating rate year-on-year at 0.7% [2][5][8] - Chemical production shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the national grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a migration scale index down by 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8%, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6][9][12][15] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to decent June macro data and un - expected central urban work conference statements, the market anticipates a correction, with a cautious mindset. The iron ore is strong, supporting the price center of the sector. Steel and coking coal are lackluster, and the valuation repair from the basis perspective has temporarily reached its limit. The terminal demand verification point hasn't arrived, and the macro trend dominates the off - season market, expected to oscillate at high levels [1][2] - The overall market rally stimulates mid - stream inventory building, creating a positive feedback for the industry chain. The macro - favorable expectations have cooled, and future focus will be on policy implementation and off - season terminal demand performance [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - **Iron Element**: Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, 45 - port arrivals increased as expected. Steel mills' profitability is good, and small - sample steel mill hot metal production rose, remaining at a high year - on - year level. Due to concentrated arrivals, some ports had increased congestion, leading to a slight decline in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market price oscillates strongly [2] - **Carbon Element**: Some previously - overhauled coal mines in major production areas are resuming production, but there are still production restrictions due to overhauls and underground issues. The overall supply has not returned to previous highs. On the import side, the China - Mongolia port has resumed customs clearance, but the Mongolian Naadam holiday lasts until the 17th, and customs clearance may remain low. Coke production has slightly decreased, but there is still rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream is actively restocking, and some coal types are in short supply. The first round of price increases for coke is expected to be implemented on Thursday [3] - **Alloys**: Manganese ore prices are temporarily stable, but port inventories have slightly increased. The cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future has significant downward potential, and the support for ore prices is insufficient. The supply of manganese silicon has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is resilient. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the supply may increase in the future. The downstream demand for steel products remains stable at a relatively high level [3] - **Glass**: In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand is weakening. Although there was good sales at the beginning of the month, its sustainability is questionable. There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is on the rise. Upstream inventories are slightly decreasing, and market sentiment has a large impact. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and manufacturers have raised prices. The market is expected to oscillate [6] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The market expects a significant reduction in photovoltaic daily melting, and heavy - soda demand is flat. Light - soda downstream demand is weak, and manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. Emotions are interfering with the market, and the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6][15] 2. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The central urban work conference's statements were not unexpected, and the subsequent policy - stimulus expectations have cooled. The crude steel output in the first six months decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, with limited subsequent production - reduction pressure. The spot market transactions are generally weak, and the market is expected to oscillate at high levels [9] - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, and port arrivals increased. Steel mills' profitability is good, and hot metal production rose. Due to concentrated arrivals, some ports had increased congestion, leading to a slight decline in port inventories. The market price oscillates strongly, and before the market sentiment weakens, prices are likely to rise rather than fall [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel slightly increased, but the daily consumption decreased. The factory inventory slightly decreased. The fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, but some are affected by profit pressure. The first round of price increases is expected to be implemented on Thursday. The downstream steel mills have good profits, are actively producing and restocking. The futures are at a significant premium, and the coke enterprise inventory is continuously decreasing. The market expects a second - round price increase, and the market is expected to oscillate [10][13] - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines in major production areas are resuming production, but overall supply has not returned to previous highs. The China - Mongolia port has resumed customs clearance, but customs clearance may remain low. The downstream has rigid demand for coking coal and is actively restocking. The coal mine inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate [3][13] - **Glass**: The off - season demand is declining, and deep - processing orders are decreasing. There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is increasing. Upstream inventories are slightly decreasing. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and manufacturers have raised prices. The market is expected to oscillate [14] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The heavy - soda demand is flat, and the light - soda downstream demand is weak. Manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. The long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change, and enterprises are advised to seize short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [6][15] - **Silicon Manganese**: After the central urban work conference, the macro - stimulus policy fell short of expectations, and the manganese silicon market oscillated weakly. The cost support has strengthened, the supply has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks, and the downstream demand is resilient. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and prices will face pressure in the long run [18] - **Ferrosilicon**: The macro - stimulus policy fell short of expectations, and the ferrosilicon price declined weakly. The cost has decreased, and the supply may increase in the future. The downstream demand is resilient. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and prices will face pressure in the long run [19]