Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the continuous weakening of US manufacturing PMI data, precious metals prices oscillated upward on the day. Short - term gold is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, while silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's, but the risk of increased volatility should be watched out for [1]. - In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of both gold and silver. The expectation of a mild economic recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [7][8]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The employment index was 44.9, and the new orders index was 47.7 [2]. - The US launched a military operation against Venezuela on January 3, capturing President Maduro. Venezuela established a committee for Maduro's release [2]. - The air forces of the UK and France carried out a joint air strike on a suspected underground weapons depot of the "Islamic State" in Syria on January 3 [2]. - Trump threatened to raise tariffs on India on January 4 if India does not meet US requirements to curb oil purchases from Russia [2]. - On January 5, the on - the - spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 6.977, hitting a new high since mid - May 2023 [3]. Price Logic - **Gold**: Driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions and weak US manufacturing PMI data, gold prices oscillated upward. Short - term factors to focus on include the situation in Venezuela after the US raid, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing starting on January 8, the possible "sell - the - fact" risk after the Fed chair nomination, and important US macro data this week. In the annual outlook, gold is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend [4][7]. - **Silver**: Silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's. However, attention should be paid to the results of the silver survey in the US 232 report in mid - January. The risk of short - term volatility may increase. In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports silver, and the expectation of economic recovery gives it greater upward elasticity [8]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2330.50 (+0.00%), the commodity 20 index was 2664.63 (+0.00%), the industrial products index was 2267.44 (+0.00%), and the PPI commodity index was 1410.29 (+0.00%) [50]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on January 5, 2026, was 3824.25, with a daily increase of 0.00%, a 5 - day decline of 4.66%, a 1 - month increase of 9.71%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in international relations, commodity markets, and economic indicators, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: International News - A meeting between the leaders of China and South Korea resulted in the signing of 15 cooperation documents in various fields, including technology innovation and economic cooperation [1] - Venezuela's President Maduro appeared in a New York federal court facing charges from the U.S. Justice Department, declaring "not guilty" [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, marking the tenth consecutive month below 50, the lowest since October 2024 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, while U.S. stock markets reached new highs, with energy and chemical sectors showing strength in night trading [1] Group 3: Commodity Markets Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are rebounding due to easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts, supported by a global easing cycle [2] - Silver's supply remains tight, with industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics driving investment interest [2] - Platinum demand is increasing due to its use in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen energy, with prices expected to rise [2] Copper - Copper prices rose by 1.28%, reaching a historical high, driven by tight supply and stable demand in electricity and automotive sectors [3] - The overall copper supply-demand outlook is shifting towards a deficit due to supply disruptions [3] Oil - After a significant drop, oil prices recovered slightly, with Venezuela's oil production facing uncertainties [3] - UBS forecasts that the global oil market will not see significant changes in supply-demand balance over the next 12 months [3] Group 4: Financial Markets - U.S. stock indices rose, with significant gains in the media sector, while the oil and petrochemical sectors lagged [9] - The financing balance in China decreased, indicating potential shifts in market liquidity and investment dynamics [9] Group 5: Domestic News - China's child-rearing subsidies have been fully opened for applications, with over 24 million recipients reported [6] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market through various supportive measures [10]

当地时间1月5日，美股三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.23%、创历史新高，纳指、标普500指数小幅上涨。 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.49%。商品市场方面，白银大涨，黄金、原油均上涨。 道指创历史新高 美国三大股指收涨，截至当地时间1月5日收盘，数据显示，道指涨1.23%、创历史新高，纳指涨0.69%，标普500指数涨0.64%。 马杜罗在美首次出庭：我无罪 新华社消息，遭美国强行控制的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇5日中午在美国纽约南区联邦地区法院首次出庭，拒绝美方所谓"犯罪"指控。 马杜罗在法庭上表示，自己是"被绑架的"，"我无罪"，拒绝美方对其一切指控。马杜罗强调，他仍然是委内瑞拉总统。 美国大型科技股涨跌不一，美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.41%。个股方面，特斯拉涨超3%，亚马逊涨近3%，Meta涨超1%，谷歌母公司Alphabet-C涨0.63%， 苹果跌超1%，微软、英伟达小幅下跌。 消息面上，三星联席CEO卢泰文在CES 2026期间透露，公司计划在2026年将搭载谷歌Gemini AI功能的移动设备数量增加一倍，达到8亿台。 中概股走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.49%。个股方面，灿谷涨超16% ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Movements - Global commodity markets experienced significant fluctuations due to concerns over supply shortages and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, leading to a resurgence in precious metals [1] - Gold prices surged, reaching a peak of $4,467 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S. military actions in Venezuela and other geopolitical developments [2][3] - Industrial metals also saw a collective rise, with copper prices breaking historical records, driven by strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [5][6] Group 2: Gold Price Forecasts - UBS raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, citing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued preference for gold as a risk-hedging asset [3] - Goldman Sachs projected gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce, with potential for further upside due to ongoing geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes [2][3] - The demand for gold ETFs is expected to remain high, with analysts suggesting that if political or financial risks escalate, gold prices could potentially rise to $5,400 per ounce [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices saw a significant increase, with futures rising by 7.95%, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [3][4] - The silver market has been in a state of supply-demand imbalance since 2021, with increasing demand outpacing the ability to expand production quickly [3] - A survey indicated that 57% of respondents expect silver prices to exceed $100 per ounce next year, reflecting strong market sentiment [4] Group 4: Copper Supply Concerns - The copper market is facing supply concerns due to production interruptions at major mines, with analysts predicting a global refined copper production of 26.9 million tons and a market shortfall of 308,000 tons this year [6][7] - The potential for U.S. tariffs on copper imports has added to market volatility, with significant increases in copper inventories in U.S. warehouses as traders prepare for possible trade restrictions [7] - UBS noted that the U.S. holds about half of the global copper inventory, but its consumption accounts for less than 10% of global demand, indicating risks for supply in other regions [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals Surge - Precious metals experienced a significant surge, with spot gold rising over 2% to surpass $4420 per ounce, and spot silver increasing by more than 5% to exceed $76 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals also saw substantial gains, with both platinum and palladium rising over 5% [1] Group 2: Market Indices Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average expanded its gains to 1.2%, reaching an intraday all-time high, while the S&P 500 index rose by 0.58% and the Nasdaq Composite index increased by 0.66% [2] - Energy stocks led the market, with Schlumberger rising over 7% and Chevron increasing by more than 6% [3] Group 3: Technology Sector Highlights - The technology sector saw broad gains, with TSMC's stock price increasing by 3.4% to $330 per share, marking a new historical high and a total market capitalization of $1.7 trillion [4] - Intel's stock rose by over 5%, and ASML's stock also hit a record high with an increase of more than 5%, bringing its market capitalization to $475 billion [4] - Nvidia and Tesla both saw stock increases of over 1.5% [4] Group 4: Bitcoin and Ethereum Trends - Bitcoin rose to $93,220.8, marking a 2.22% increase over the past 24 hours, reaching a three-week high, while Ethereum increased to $3,168.62, up 1.08% in the same timeframe [6]

原油价格周一上涨，因为美军抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗带来了新的地缘政治暗流，同时华盛 顿似乎准备继续打压这个南美国家的石油出口。伦铜重启涨势，首度升破每吨13，000美元，随着向美 国运货的热潮再度升温，交易员和投资者的看涨情绪被进一步点燃。金银价格上涨。 "市场对这件事判断得很准确，"Rapidan Energy Group总裁Bob McNally在接受采访时表示。"对短期原 油期货来说，这件事关系不大；对美国石油企业而言则是利好。" 尽管委内瑞拉及其石油行业的未来仍非常不明朗，但特朗普称，美国将暂时管理这个国家，并需要对委 内瑞拉的石油供应获得"完全的准入"。哥伦比亚广播公司周一报道称，美国计划拦截原名Bella 1的 Marinera号油轮，该油轮被指涉嫌装载委内瑞拉石油。与此同时，马杜罗被押解至纽约，周一对"毒品 恐怖主义"指控表示不认罪。 基本金属：全线上涨 伦铜首破13000美元 伦铜重启涨势，首度升破每吨13000美元，随着向美国运货的热潮再度升温，交易员和投资者的看涨情 绪被进一步点燃。 周一LME期铜一度大涨4.7%，近期连续攀升的行情推动铜价自11月中旬以来累计上涨约20%。 原油 ...

Precious metals, as well as U.S. assets such as Treasury bonds rallied. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF rose 0.4%. The Dow rose nearly 600 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 was up 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.7%. The Dow traded as high as 49,209.95 before paring gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average marked its highest close on record after Wall Street shrugged off the U.S.' capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. ...

Group 1 - Venezuela's current oil production of approximately 1 million barrels per day accounts for less than 1% of global supply, with key facilities like Jose port and Amuay refinery unaffected, indicating low risk of substantial supply disruption [1][2] - Oil prices in the Asia-Pacific market rebounded slightly, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $60.92 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 0.2% to $57.43 per barrel, despite concerns over supply surplus [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2026, global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day, marking a historic oversupply record [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the market's focus may shift from concerns over supply disruption to expectations regarding the recovery speed of Venezuela's production capacity and the return of U.S. energy companies to the market [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecasts for Brent crude at an average of $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel for 2026, indicating limited short-term impact from Venezuela's situation on oil prices [3] - RBC Capital's commodity research head suggests that a complete lifting of sanctions on Venezuela could potentially release hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within 12 months under an orderly transition [3] Group 3 - The geopolitical uncertainty has increased the appeal of gold and other precious metals as safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in their prices [4] - UBS forecasts that global central bank gold net purchases will reach 950 tons by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 900 tons, indicating strong demand for gold [5] - UBS has raised its target prices for gold in March, June, and September 2026 from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, with a slight expected decline to $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5]

Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Precious Metals - The military action by the U.S. in Venezuela has led to a significant increase in demand for precious metals as investors seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a rebound in gold and silver prices [1][2] - Gold prices rose above $4,430 per ounce after a previous decline of 4.4% [3] - Silver prices surged nearly 5% to around $76 per ounce, with platinum and palladium also experiencing gains [6][9] Group 2: Oil Market Response - The oil market reacted calmly to the geopolitical turmoil, with both Brent and WTI crude oil prices experiencing slight declines [14] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record oversupply of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026, which has contributed to the muted response in oil prices despite the unrest in Venezuela [14] - Venezuela's current oil production of approximately 1 million barrels per day accounts for less than 1% of global supply, leading to a perception that the geopolitical event will not significantly disrupt the overall oil market [14][15] Group 3: U.S. Oil Companies' Involvement - The U.S. government is encouraging major oil companies to invest heavily in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, indicating a long-term interest in revitalizing the country's oil industry [16][17] - Concerns exist regarding the feasibility of restoring Venezuela's oil production due to historical challenges faced in similar geopolitical situations, such as in Libya and Iraq [17]

记者丨吴斌 编辑丨和佳 在美国"闪击"委内瑞拉后，金融市场也随之震动，现货黄金和白银价格大幅上涨，国际油价则反应平 淡，甚至"不涨反跌"。 1月5日，布伦特原油开盘一度短暂下跌1.2%至60美元/桶，不过此后价格有所反弹，截至22：22，涨近 1%。贵金属市场的反应更加激烈，现货黄金在经历了一周的下跌后强劲反弹，大涨超2%，冲破4420美 元/盎司关口；现货白银大涨逾5%，升破76美元/盎司，现货铂金、现货钯金涨幅均超5%，股债汇市场 暂时反应不大。 | < W | 贵金属 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | GFEX铝 | 452.85 | 8.88% | | PD.GFE | | | | COMEX M-白 | 76.4250 | 7.62% | | QI.CMX | | | | COMEX白银 | 76.420 | 7.61% | | SI.CMX | | | | GFEX铂 | 583.95 | 6.48% | | PT.GFE | | | | NYMEX铂 | 2276.3 | 6.52% | | PL.NYM | | | | 现货铂金(美元/ ...