@李生论金：黄金扮演的不再是"避险资产"，而是"去制度风险资产"。风险从盈利波动变成"规则可能被改变"。黄金的风险溢价被重新定价，市场愿意 为"不依赖任何政府承诺的资产"支付更高的价格。 美债作为资产安全的代表，也变得不靠谱，这不是美元崩溃论，这是全球原有的投资组合重新洗牌，黄金吃到了资产配置切换周期的红利。 不到一个月，黄金再次刷新自己的历史，突破5500美元，而历史上单月上涨20%仅有三次，高风险也仿佛触手可及...... 回溯历史，黄金的三次大涨都与世界货币体系崩塌相关。1930年英国放弃金本位，黄金上涨75%；1971至1980年，美元与黄金脱钩后用9年时间黄金上涨超 24倍（叠加石油危机、中东战争等）；08年金融危机至2011年黄金上涨174%，然后开启了长达8年的横盘...... 黄金的上涨也带动了白银、贵金属的疯狂，有趣的是除了新质生产力前景推动，全球局势也在特朗普的"搅局"下扑朔迷离，遥想2025年5月特朗普还亲自下 场喊大家买黄金，而这一月的疯狂，主要推动力或许不在央行，而在一些家族信托基金，这都是什么讯号？黄金的顶到底是多少？我们的收入与黄金的比重 多少才合适？ @格隆汇：于是很多人开始觉 ...

AI图片 贵金属市场正面临一场潜在的交割危机。 资深贵金属分析师Bill Holter最新警告称， 纽约商品交易所（COMEX）可能最早在2026年3月出现白银实物交割违约，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公信力， 并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。 异常的交割需求已经显现。据Holter透露， 在传统上属于非交割月的1月，COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而往年同期这一数字通常仅为100万至 200万盎司。 随着3月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。 这一警告正值白银市场经历史无前例的涨势之际。白银价格2025年迄今已飙升154%，仅1月便上涨约40%，远超同期股市表现。瑞银策略师本周已向客户示 警，称贵金属及工业金属近期涨幅"失控"。 "实体经济依赖信用运转，你接触的一切、你做的一切，都涉及信用的参与，"Holter表示。如果信用变得无法获取，实体经济将完全停摆。 这一警告并非危言耸听。贵金属市场的定价机制长期依赖纸面合约，实物交割比例极低。一旦市场对纸面合约的信任崩塌，投资者将蜂拥要求实物交 ...

地缘升温叠加偏鸽预期 贵金属延续强势表现 市场分析 利率方面，美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变，在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。美联 储主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已现初 步企稳迹象，通胀仍处于相对高位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，加 息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设，不相信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下一届美联储主席远离政治。地缘 方面，美国总统特朗普再次对伊朗发出威胁称，下次对伊朗的打击将更加猛烈。特朗普称，一支庞大的舰队正前 往伊朗，已准备好迅速履行其使命。针对特朗普威胁，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗武装力量高度戒备，将对任 何针侵略作出迅速而果断的回应。 期货行情与成交量： 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-29 2026-01-28，沪金主力合约开于1146.80元/克，收于1186.20元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动3.29%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1189.60元/克，收于1196.80元/克，较昨日午后收 ...

"铜条商场已经不让卖了，投资的话还有银条和金条。" 1月27日，深圳水贝黄金零售市场的一位柜台商家向财联社记者表示道。 随着国际贵金属价格飙升，金条、银条甚至铜条等纯投资性质的产品在曾经主要销售饰品的水贝零售市场突然走俏。不过日前，铜条销售已 经被叫停。多位业内人士告诉财联社记者，相较于金银条，铜条溢价严重且回收渠道缺失，缺乏投资价值。 另一方面，金价屡创新高，又恰逢已进年关，多位水贝商户表示，虽已迎来传统黄金消费旺季，但今年难有往年畅旺。一位上游料商称，在 高金价的冲击下，目前产品的销售额较2025年同期下降了约三成。 展望未来，苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟在接受财联社记者采访时表示，2026年支撑金价长期上行的核心逻辑依然存在，这种"再进阶"的预 期将进一步巩固黄金强劲的金融属性，投资需求预计将保持相对强势；而金饰消费则继续承压，高金价将加速市场分化，推动消费进一步向 轻量化、设计化、精品化转型。整体上，黄金市场"投资热、首饰冷"的结构性特征在2026年或将延续并深化。 金、银、铜条登场 金条，曾被视作重要的投资手段。而随着国际贵金属价格飙涨，具备投资属性的金属不再局限于常见的金条。 财联社记者关注到，不少曾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $5,500 per ounce, signifies a profound shift in the global macroeconomic landscape, reflecting a transition in industrial demand paradigms and a reassessment of resource strategic value [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently broken the $5,500 mark, driven by a shift from traditional inflation hedging to a focus on hedging against changes in the global monetary credit system [4][5]. - The recent increase in gold ETF inflows, with over 5% gains and net inflows exceeding 5.8 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days, indicates strong market interest [1][4]. - The total open interest in gold futures has accelerated, reflecting a robust buying force from central banks and institutional asset reallocations [4][5]. Group 2: Macro Environment - The current macro environment is characterized by "de-globalization" and "resource nationalism," leading to strategic control over key mineral resources and creating supply constraints that elevate the strategic premium of all resources [6][7]. - Political factors are increasingly influencing the supply side of mineral resources, with countries implementing policies to strengthen control over domestic resources [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The financial environment, marked by the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, providing a favorable liquidity backdrop for gold price increases [5][6]. - The demand for gold is being driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the traditional role of gold as a safe-haven asset, with increasing interest from central banks as long-term buyers [5][9]. - Investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, have raised gold price forecasts, predicting a potential rise to $6,000 per ounce in the spring of 2026, driven by structural changes in central bank gold purchasing behavior [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the support for risk - assets from the domestic fundamentals is limited in the short - term. Overseas, the macro - environment is still favorable for the resilience of risk - assets, but policy uncertainty is increasing, leading to greater differentiation in asset pricing. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; maintain a neutral stance on national bonds and standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate long positions in precious metals; over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. - For different sectors, most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4,732.8, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 0.5%, and a monthly increase of 2.89%. The Shanghai 50 futures price was 3,069.8, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a monthly increase of 1.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8,622, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.42%, and a monthly increase of 17.1%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8,377.8, with a daily increase of 0.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.63%, and a monthly increase of 12.66% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.87, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly decrease of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.1%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.21, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.32%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.09, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and a monthly increase of 0.61% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9545 pips, with a daily increase of 3, a weekly decrease of 87, and a monthly decrease of 345 [2]. 2. Fluctuations in Popular Industries - On January 28, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals had the highest daily increase of 6.02%, with a weekly increase of 10.59% and a monthly increase of 31.19%. The defense and military industry had a daily decrease of 1.71%, a weekly decrease of 4.62%, and a monthly increase of 7.96%. The banking industry had a daily decrease of 0.63%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%, and a monthly decrease of 7.3% [5]. 3. Fluctuations in Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: On January 27, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at $62.57, with a daily increase of 3.2%, a weekly increase of 2.11%, and a monthly increase of 8.99%. ICE Brent crude oil was priced at $66.76, with a daily increase of 3.07%, a weekly increase of 2.02%, and a monthly increase of 9.6% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was priced at $5,179.6, with a daily increase of 1.91%, a weekly increase of 3.94%, and a monthly increase of 19.56%. COMEX silver was priced at $112.345, with a daily decrease of 2.74%, a weekly increase of 8.8%, and a monthly increase of 58.28% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was priced at $13,006.5, with a daily decrease of 1.46%, a weekly decrease of 0.93%, and a monthly increase of 4.08%. LME aluminum was priced at $3,207, with a daily increase of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 1.06%, and a monthly increase of 7.01% [8]. 4. Macro Highlights - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic macro - situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, price levels remain low, and credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in an observation and verification stage, and the improvement in physical work and demand is more likely to be concentrated in the first quarter. In the short - term, the direct support from domestic fundamentals for risk - assets is limited [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is falling slowly, and policy uncertainty is increasing. The US consumption has some resilience, but its internal driving force is weakening. The core inflation is cooling, but the decline is not smooth. The market's focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, increasing policy uncertainty [14]. - **Large - scale Assets**: It is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities (CSI 500 stock index futures), standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures, standard - allocate long positions in precious metals, over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals, and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. 5. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards, stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and national bond futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [15]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on European routes is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward trend, such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. [15]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Most energy and chemical varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some agricultural products such as corn/starch, live pigs, etc. are expected to fluctuate downwards, while cotton is expected to fluctuate upwards [17]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [17].

美联储宣布1月份"不降息"，这一消息对美股并没有影响，反而让美黄金一度突破5600美元/盎司，大宗商品出现剧烈震荡，全球金融巨鳄也开始对黄金的上 涨观点出现分化。A股一月份三大指数月线都是在5日线上拉升，这种走势是相当不错的，给人一种"一马当先"的感觉，只不过"降温"后的调整期会让人适应 起来"很难受"。现在要关心的是春节将至，这一波红包行情能否快速开启，让大家在马年开开心心过大节！ 创业板指数周四低开高走，盘面出现明显的反扑行情，从开盘的跌多到涨多，这种行情远比指数上涨要强得多！市场结构未变，目前仍处在"政策抑制快涨 与市场情绪亢奋"的拉扯阶段，市场情绪降温的仍然导致指数的震荡态势加剧。午后注意创业板指数能否在3330点之上稳住。 7 K 当日综合评分 技术面6.9 资金面7.0 短期大盘趋势偏强 当日点评 短期大盘趋势偏强,增量资金入场较明显,市场赚钱效应 骑牛看熊发现近期AI营销板块迎来爆发式上涨，板块指数近30日涨幅达86%，显著跑赢大盘，背后是技术突破、政策红利、需求升级与估值重塑的多重共 振。AI技术的迭代突破的是板块上涨的核心驱动力，已从"辅助工具"升级为营销全链路的"决策中枢"，形成可量化的效 ...

冒充"足银"、证书造假、"阴阳商品"……直播间"纯银"产品暗藏多少消费"陷阱" "自古金银不分家"，随着金价不断创下新高，白银因价格相对较低而越来越受青睐，消费者对白银首饰 的购买热情持续攀升。但有消费者反映，部分直播间售卖的所谓"纯银"产品，价格远低于国际银价，收 货后却被检测为锌、镍、黄铜等合金，甚至随货附带的"鉴定证书"也疑点重重。作为黄金的"平替"，白 银消费如何才能明明白白？记者进行了调查。 "包银"冒充"足银" "水贝市场投资银条供不应求""商户加价抢白银"……随着白银价格持续大涨，"抢银"话题近期持续升 温。在多个购物平台的直播间里，"白菜价"的"999足银"、"假一赔十"的银条元宝大量出现，吸引不少 消费者下单。 "看到银价持续上涨，我在去年12月20日至25日期间忍不住直播间的'低价诱惑'，购买了多件宣称支持 检测、并配有证书的'足银999'饰品。"消费者包女士向记者讲述了自己的遭遇。 据包女士回忆，该直播间的银饰价格低于市场上的同类产品，主播反复强调其售卖的产品为"足银 999"首饰且"支持检测"，并在页面标注着每件商品均配有"NGTC珠宝玉石首饰鉴定证书"。 而无意中的一次检测令她大吃一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting signals a shift in market expectations for gold, influenced by changes in the Federal Reserve's policy stance and economic outlook [1][3][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025 [5][7] - The statement from the meeting removed references to "rising employment risks" and emphasized improvements in certain areas of the economy, indicating that the Fed does not feel compelled to continue easing immediately [5][7] - Internal divisions among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts suggest uncertainty in monetary policy direction, with some officials still favoring further cuts [7] Group 2: Impact on Gold Market - Gold is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations; a weakened logic for urgent rate cuts could lead to significant price volatility in the gold market [5][7] - The potential for a prolonged observation period by the Fed may increase the likelihood of a dollar rebound, which could lead to a divergence where macroeconomic logic remains unchanged but prices adjust prematurely [7][9] - Investors are cautioned against blindly entering the gold market based solely on long-term bullish sentiment, as short- to medium-term drivers may create a vacuum [7][9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The Fed's decision to pause is seen as a signal for patience and observation, suggesting that restraint may be more valuable than impulsive actions during this period [9] - While gold retains its long-term value as a hedge against uncertainty, the market needs time to digest previously priced-in easing expectations [9] - Understanding the shift in logic is deemed more critical than chasing emotional price points, as the future trajectory of gold may involve complex fluctuations rather than a straightforward upward trend [9]

1月的最后一个交易周，金价加速狂飙，在短短4个交易日内，连破6道整百关口！ 1月29日早间，国际黄金市场再度迎来历史性突破。其中现货黄金（伦敦金现）逼近5600美元/盎司，最高上探至5598.75美元/盎司，日内 涨逾3%，年初至今已涨超28%，涨逾1200美元。 截至发稿，报5536.44美元/盎司，涨2.19%。 值得注意的是，现货黄金价格在1月26日至1月29日的4个交易日中，已连破5000、5100、5200、5300、5400、5500这6道整百关口。 COMEX黄金则在1月29日盘中已率先突破5600美元，达5626.8美元/盎司。 | 国际贵金属 | | --- | | 名称 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 5536.44 118.693 2.19% 28.21% | | 伦敦银现 | | COMEX黄金 5564.7d 224.5 4.20% 28.44% | | COMEX白银 117.520d 3.986 3.51％ 65.57％ | 国内品牌金饰价格也进一步攀升至历史新高，站上1700元/克。老凤祥黄金足金饰品报价1713元/克，单日上涨93元/克；周生生金饰价格 为17 ...