2025 年 12 月 8 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】国内外利好共振，市场有所回暖——策略周专题（2025 年 12 月第 1 期） 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前 指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续 的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部 分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。配置方面，短期关注 防御及消费板块，中期继续关注 TMT 和先进制造板块。 【金工】把握年末利率下行契机，解析 10 年国债 ETF 配置价值——工具型产品介绍 与分析系列之二十七 我们认为宏观基本面承压但韧性仍在、央行政策支撑下，年末利率有望维持偏低并趋 于稳定。低利率环境提升固定收益资产吸引力，为债券 ETF 配置提供了较高性价比。 国泰上证 10 年期国债 ETF（代码：511260.SH）作为市场上唯一跟踪 10 年期国债指 数的债券 ETF，基金规模大、流动性佳，风险收益比良好，公募基金将作为底仓资产 的配置趋势进一步强化，建议关注其配置机会。 【金工】回调压力 ...

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the ongoing expansion and diversification of public REITs in China, highlighting the inclusion of various asset types and industries, with a projected market size of 2.3 to 3.8 trillion yuan, indicating a potential 10-16 times expansion from current levels [7][8][10] - The average dividend yield of public REITs from 2022 to 2025 is 5.73%, surpassing the average yield of the CSI Dividend Index at 5.52%, showcasing their attractiveness as a stable income asset [8][9] - Public REITs are characterized by a dual return structure comprising dividend income and asset appreciation, with a notable annualized return of 23.66% over the past year [9][10] Industry and Company - The Chinese duty-free industry is entering a new cycle, with Hainan's duty-free sales showing signs of recovery, driven by policy support and improving consumer confidence, with sales growth of 3%, 13%, and 27% from September to November 2025 [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy optimization in the duty-free sector, with recent expansions in both offshore and onshore duty-free policies, enhancing consumer access and convenience [18][19] - The report identifies key players in the duty-free market, such as China Duty Free Group, which holds a 78% market share, and highlights the strategic importance of airport channels for future growth [20][21] Automotive Industry - The report outlines the advancements in smart driving technology, with companies like Tesla and Huawei leading the way in achieving Level 4 automation through end-to-end algorithms [24][25] - The penetration rate of smart driving is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating an increase from 11.3% to 26.3% for highway NOA and from 6.1% to 10.9% for urban NOA by 2025 [25] - The global market for Robotaxi is projected to reach nearly 10 trillion yuan, with companies like Waymo and Apollo at the forefront of commercialization efforts [25][26] Non-Banking Industry - The report highlights the importance of the second pillar of the pension system in China, focusing on enterprise and occupational pensions, which are expected to grow at an annualized rate of 8%, outpacing nominal GDP growth [26][27] - The investment behavior of pension funds is shifting towards a "barbell" strategy, balancing stable cash flow assets with high-growth sectors, indicating a significant increase in equity allocations [27][28]

Group 1: Industry Research - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the expansion of public REITs into the commercial real estate sector, providing opportunities to revitalize a trillion-yuan asset market and accelerate market expansion [1] - The introduction of public REITs comes at a time when the real estate sector is under pressure, prompting a shift from "heavy development" to "heavy operation" for companies [1] - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory alignment and the importance of product valuation and operational quality in the short term, while anticipating accelerated market development with the expansion of product categories and regulatory improvements [1] Group 2: Company Research - The report notes that the company, Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ), has secured over 100 million USD in orders from North American data centers, leading to an upward revision of the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 0.6%, 5.1%, and 9.4% to 3.07 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.58 billion yuan respectively [2] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.00, 3.71, and 4.47 yuan respectively [2] - The report indicates that as electricity demand in North America continues to grow, the company's service scope is expanding, and the power sector is expected to create a third growth curve for the company, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Macro and Strategy - The public REITs index has rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.2%, and the average weekly change for property and operating rights REITs was +0.1% and +0.7% respectively [9][10] - The total market value of REITs increased to 218.8 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.52%, up 0.13 percentage points from the previous week [10][11] Chemical Industry - The 2026 refrigerant quota distribution plan has been released, with a reduction of 3,000 tons for R22 production quotas and a complete elimination of R141b quotas [14][15] - The flexibility of the third-generation refrigerant quotas has been enhanced, allowing for two adjustments per year, with a total not exceeding 30% of the quota amount [14][15] - The chemical industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook for refrigerants, particularly R32 and R134a, due to tightening quota constraints [15] Mechanical Industry - Tesla plans to launch the Optimus V3 robot in Q1 2026, with a production capacity target of 1 million units by the end of next year [16][17] - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to enter a large-scale production phase, benefiting both the complete machine and component supply chains [17][18] Oilfield Services - The company is a leading global oilfield service provider, with a focus on offshore oil and gas exploration and production [28][29] - The company is expected to benefit from China's offshore oil and gas development, with a projected capital expenditure of 135 billion yuan in 2025 [29][30] - The drilling platform utilization rate is high, and daily fees are expected to rise due to a decrease in retired platforms [29][30] Chemical Manufacturing - WanHua Chemical reported a revenue of 53.32 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a net profit of 3.03 billion yuan [31][32] - The polyurethane segment is experiencing a mixed demand, with a planned capacity expansion of 700,000 tons for MDI by Q2 2026 [32][33] - The petrochemical segment is under pressure from price declines, but revenue is expected to grow due to increased production capacity [33] Agricultural Solutions - Guoguang Co. reported a revenue of 1.523 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.09% [35][36] - The company is focusing on promoting comprehensive crop management solutions, with a significant increase in R&D investment [35][36] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [36][37] Dental Care - Dengkang Dental achieved a revenue of 1.228 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16.66% [38] - The company is adjusting its online marketing strategy, which has led to a temporary slowdown in growth [38]

Core Points - The company held the sixth meeting of the second board of independent directors on August 4, 2025, in Beijing, which was legally valid and attended by three independent directors [1] - The meeting approved the proposal to issue public REITs based on the Dalian Zhuanghe III offshore wind power project as the underlying asset, which is expected to help the company activate existing assets and optimize its capital structure [1] - The pricing of the fund subscription will be determined based on the final market inquiry results, ensuring a fair and reasonable pricing method [1] - The independent directors unanimously agreed that the related transactions do not harm the legitimate rights and interests of the company and all shareholders, especially minority shareholders, and consented to submit the matter to the company's 41st board meeting for further review [1] - The voting results showed unanimous support with 3 votes in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [1]

Macro Analysis - In May, fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates both declined compared to the previous month, with strong fiscal spending focused on "three guarantees" but a significant drop in infrastructure spending growth, indicating a need to monitor local investment momentum and willingness [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in June, awaiting the impact of tariffs on consumption and employment, while inflation effects have yet to materialize [3] Market Strategy - Public funds, particularly passive funds, are the main variables in the market, with expectations for increased investment in broad-based index ETFs, likely driving up indices such as CSI 300 and SSE 50 [4] Bond Market - The current stock of convertible bonds is primarily from private enterprises, with a high proportion of low-rated bonds, indicating an increase in credit risk events [5] - Commercial banks have significantly increased their holdings of government bonds while reducing holdings of interbank certificates and major credit products [6] Retail Industry - During the "618" sales period, e-commerce platforms achieved a cumulative sales of 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with instant retail sales reaching 29.6 billion yuan, up 18.7% [10] Renewable Energy - Continued optimism for wind power and solid-state battery sectors, with a focus on wind turbine manufacturers and the advancement of solid-state battery production lines [11] Coal Industry - With the summer electricity peak approaching, coal prices may have reached a temporary bottom due to supply contraction and seasonal demand increase, recommending companies with high long-term contracts like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [12] Oil and Gas Industry - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are influencing the oil market, with a positive long-term outlook for major oil companies and oil service firms [13] Agriculture and Fisheries - The "618" sales report indicates a significant increase in pet consumption, with over 400 pet brands seeing sales growth exceeding 100% year-on-year [14] Company Research - The report on Chipbond Technology indicates a robust growth momentum in PCB equipment business despite a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to weaker demand in the PCB industry [15]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The US non-farm payroll data for May exceeded market expectations, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a relatively robust job market [2] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw an increase of 48,000 jobs, significantly higher than the previous month's 29,000, contributing to the stability of the employment data [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with market expectations indicating no rate cuts in June and the first potential cut in September [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - The market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase due to intertwined internal and external factors, with external risks potentially easing [3] - Domestic policies are expected to continue to be proactive, supporting economic recovery, particularly in consumption [3] - The suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the US is likely to maintain high export growth in the short term [3] Group 3: Bond Market Observations - The REITs market showed an upward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 142.42 and a weekly return of 1.74% [4] - The convertible bond market continued to recover, with a 1.1% increase in the index for the week, outperforming the equity market [5] - Credit spreads in various sectors showed mixed movements, with coal and steel sectors experiencing an overall increase [6] Group 4: Industry Research - The banking sector is expected to maintain a neutral to loose liquidity state in June, with seasonal credit growth and stable government bond issuance [10] - The petrochemical sector is optimistic about the "three major oil companies" and their high capital expenditure plans, with production growth targets set for 2025 [14] - The steel industry is likely to see profitability recover to historical averages due to new regulatory conditions and supply-side adjustments [12] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - Zhongjian Technology plans to invest 1.402 billion yuan in a high-performance carbon fiber project, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards [17] - Guokewai aims to integrate its entire industry chain through the acquisition of a majority stake in Zhongxin Ningbo, with projected net profits increasing significantly over the next three years [18]

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance to stabilize inflation expectations, with potential for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 depending on economic indicators such as consumer and employment data [2] Group 2: New Stock Market Performance - In April 2025, 10 new stocks were listed, raising a total of 8.269 billion yuan, with an average first-day increase of 240.69% for main board stocks and 219.73% for ChiNext stocks, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3] Group 3: REITs Market Overview - As of April 30, 2025, there are 65 public REITs in China with a total issuance scale of 173.026 billion yuan, showing a monthly return rate of 0.65% in a fluctuating secondary market [4] Group 4: Communication Industry Insights - The communication industry saw a significant profit increase in Q1 2025, with 170 companies reporting a total net profit of 52.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 88.3% [5] Group 5: Chemical Industry Outlook - The high-performance organic pigment industry is showing a favorable trend, with recommendations to focus on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [6]