Group 1: Hotel Industry Insights - The hotel industry is entering a new phase characterized by non-linear growth among leading players, driven by expectations of cyclical turning points and capital consolidation, with a long-term focus on scale and efficiency [17][18] - The valuation of hotels follows a three-dimensional framework: macro supply-demand mismatches determine valuation turning points, structural upgrades amplify volatility, and individual company cycles provide alpha opportunities [17] - The current cycle's bottom is marked by increased differentiation within the industry, with leading hotels expected to see RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) recover as supply stabilizes and demand rebounds, particularly in leisure travel [17][18] Group 2: Social Services Sector - The social services sector has seen a 1.52% increase during the reporting period, outperforming the broader market by 2.71 percentage points, with notable stocks including Tongdao Liepin and Keri International [19][20] - The sector is actively responding to the silver economy, with policies promoting the development of elderly care services and companies like New Oriental launching local interest courses for retirees [21] - The Spring Festival is expected to drive significant travel demand, with predictions of approximately 95 million air passengers during the holiday period, indicating a strong recovery in travel-related services [21] Group 3: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector has experienced a decline of 1.37%, with A-share food and beverage indices falling by 1.57%, while H-share indices showed a slight increase [26] - The sector is characterized by differentiated performance, with alcoholic beverages, particularly baijiu, showing stable prices and a focus on demand recovery during the Spring Festival [27] - Recommendations include leading companies in various categories, such as Moutai for baijiu, Yili for dairy, and Nongfu Spring for beverages, highlighting their strong growth potential and market positioning [27][28] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical industry is witnessing a robust outflow of innovative drugs and a recovery in the CXO sector, driven by favorable clinical data and supportive policies [33][34] - The domestic supply-demand landscape remains stable, with a focus on innovative drug forms and technologies such as AI in healthcare and brain-machine interfaces, which are expected to see significant growth [35] - Investment recommendations include companies with strong competitive advantages in innovation and cost control, such as Mindray Medical and WuXi AppTec [35][36]

2026 年 1 月 26 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】A 股牛市当前阶段形态特征六问六答——解密牛市系列之六 本轮牛市或已突破第二震荡段，进入上涨段 3。参考历史结构性牛市规律，本轮牛市 上涨段 3 初期或在 4200-4300 点形成阶段性高点，随后回调企稳于震荡段 2 上沿， 并重新开启新一轮上涨。后续需重点跟踪两点：一是 4200-4300 点区间压力释放与 资金承接情况；二是震荡段 2 上沿的支撑有效性及核心板块企稳信号。 【策略】保持稳健，持股过节——策略周专题（2026 年 1 月第 3 期） 保持稳健，持股过节。参考之前的市场行情，我们认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难 以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之前投资者交易热度有所下行，以及微观流动性短 期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前 20 个交易日，主要指数上涨概率不足 50%。 预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后 20 个交易日主要指数上行概率 与平均涨幅均较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。 【债券】如何看待近期 DR001 的上行？——2026 年 1 月 23 日利率债观察 如果一段时间内 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that recent economic policies, including structural interest rate cuts, are expected to support economic recovery in the first quarter of 2026, with a likelihood of steady improvement in economic data [1] - The financial market policies have played a role in regulating previously overheated sectors, suggesting that the market may not sustain its previous rapid upward trend and could transition into a more volatile phase [1] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The report highlights that the issuance of credit bonds increased, with a total of 342 bonds issued amounting to 3318.01 billion, reflecting a 6.25% week-on-week increase [4] - The report notes that the secondary market prices for publicly listed REITs have slightly declined, with the China REITs index closing at 790.22, resulting in a weekly return of -0.36% [3] - The convertible bond market experienced an uptick, driven by strong underlying stock performance, suggesting potential upward valuation space [5] Group 3: Industry-Specific Recommendations - In the consumer services sector, the report recommends investing in high-value mass catering leaders like Xiaocaiyuan (H) and fast-growing fresh convenience store operators like Guming (H) [9] - The education sector is advised to focus on national leaders such as New Oriental-S (H) and high school one-on-one leader Xueda Education [9] - In the tourism sector, the report suggests investing in OTA companies like Tongcheng Travel and Ctrip Group-S, as well as scenic spots like Emei Mountain and Changbai Mountain [9] Group 4: Financial Data and Policies - The report notes that M2 growth has risen to 8.5%, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment aimed at promoting high-quality economic development [10] - The People's Bank of China has announced a reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, which is expected to further support the real estate market and stabilize market expectations [11] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - The report discusses China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNOOC) strategic focus on building a world-class energy group with distinct marine characteristics, recommending attention to CNOOC and its subsidiaries [12] - Newhan New Materials is set to acquire a 51% stake in Hairete, with no immediate impact on earnings expected, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [15] - Zhuozhao Point Glue is highlighted for its advanced precision glue dispensing equipment and strategic acquisitions to enhance competitive advantages, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 provided [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The operation performance of public REITs is the core premise for judging their investment value. The income of REITs essentially comes from the cash - flow creation ability of underlying assets. The differentiation of operation performance is the key to distinguish high - quality assets from weak ones [41]. - In the current stage of public REITs with valuation adjustment, narrowing price difference between primary and secondary markets, and accelerating policy expansion and commercial real - estate pilot, it is recommended to adopt a dumbbell allocation strategy to balance the needs of "defense for income" and "offense for elasticity" [74]. Summary by Directory Market Review: From Valuation Fluctuation to Value Return Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - China's public REITs have entered the stage of normalized development. In 2025, they continued the normalized issuance trend, but the scale declined. By December 20, 2025, 19 public REITs were issued with a scale of 38.7 billion yuan [13]. - From 2021 to 2025, the subscription multiples of China's public REITs fluctuated significantly, driven by product supply scarcity, market sentiment, and expected returns of asset types [19]. - The secondary - market performance of public REITs can be divided into six stages since the listing of the first batch in 2021. As of December 19, 2025, the annual increase of the CSI REITs total return index was +3.2%, significantly weaker than the CSI 300 and CSI Convertible Bonds, only better than the CSI Aggregate Bonds [21][22]. - The return of public REITs is between the CSI 300 and CSI Aggregate Bonds, complementary to the stock - bond hybrid nature of CSI Convertible Bonds. In the long - term, REITs have lower volatility than the CSI 300 and CSI Convertible Bonds, higher than the CSI Aggregate Bonds, and have a low correlation with other assets, suitable for balancing portfolio fluctuations [27]. Institutional Allocation Preference Differences - The holders of the current public REITs' floating shares are highly concentrated, dominated by institutional investors. Securities proprietary trading accounts for 51.3%, followed by insurance funds (19.9%) and industrial capital (13.6%), with the total proportion of these three types of institutional investors exceeding 84% [2][28]. - The structure of floating - share holders of different types of public REITs shows significant sector differentiation. Securities proprietary trading prefers assets with high liquidity and high valuation elasticity, while insurance funds focus on assets with stable long - term cash flows. The proportion of public funds and individual investors is low [2][30]. - The number of REIT products allocated by public fund FOFs has been continuously expanding, but the growth rate has slowed down. From the first to the second quarter of 2025, the allocation was diversified, and from the second to the third quarter, it shifted to concentrated addition of high - attention products [31][36]. Fundamental: Differentiated Performance of Asset Types - **Industrial Parks**: In 2025, the rental rate and rent level of industrial park REITs showed the characteristics of "intensified differentiation and supply - demand game". High - quality science and technology parks and core - location assets showed resistance to decline, while some traditional industrial parks faced rising vacancy rates and falling rents [42]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: In 2025, the operating income of warehousing and logistics REITs mostly showed a fluctuating downward trend. The rental rate was differentiated, with some maintaining full occupancy and some fluctuating significantly. The rent level generally declined, and core - location assets had strong anti - risk abilities [46]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, consumption REITs showed significant differentiation. In the third quarter, some performed well, while others declined. The market presented the characteristics of "stable high - level rental rate and differentiated rent level" [51]. - **Affordable Housing**: The affordable housing REIT market showed strong operational resilience, with most REITs maintaining a rental rate of over 93% by the third quarter, and the rent level fluctuated minimally [54]. - **Transportation**: The core driving logic of the transportation sector is the recovery of travel demand and the improvement of asset operation efficiency. The traffic volume and toll revenue showed significant differentiation among different REITs [57]. - **Ecological and Environmental Protection**: The operating performance of ecological and environmental protection REITs improved. In the third quarter, the operating income of two listed REITs increased year - on - year, and the waste treatment volume and sewage treatment volume increased [61]. - **Energy**: In 2025, except for one REIT, the operating income of other energy REITs declined significantly. The photovoltaic field performed well, while the wind - power field was generally sluggish [63]. - **Municipal Facilities**: The heating area and charging area of a municipal heating REIT remained basically stable in 2025, but the heat - stop rate and charging rate decreased significantly in the third quarter [67]. - **Water Conservancy**: The operating income of a water - conservancy REIT increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025, mainly due to the 50.91% increase in the supply of raw water [69]. - **New Infrastructure**: Two new - infrastructure REITs disclosed their operating income for the first time in the third quarter of 2025. Their trusteeship service fee collection rates were both 100%, laying a good foundation for subsequent operations [71]. Investment Recommendations: Structural Opportunities under Policy Dividends and Asset Differentiation Primary Market: Select Projects in the Differentiated Market - Since this year, the enthusiasm for REITs new - issue subscriptions has declined, and there have been cases of breaking the issue price on the first - day of listing. The decline in primary - market new - issue returns is affected by the weak secondary - market performance and the narrowing price difference between the primary and secondary markets. Different asset types show differentiated performance. It is recommended to focus on high - quality projects in primary - market new - issue subscriptions and strategic placements, and be cautious about strategic placements with long lock - up periods [75]. Secondary Market: The Dumbbell Strategy Combines Defense and Offense - Public REITs are a supplementary asset class for asset allocation, matching the investment needs of "idle funds + long - term holding". Appropriate allocation of REITs can improve the Sharpe ratio of the investment portfolio, but the allocation ratio should be moderate [77][78]. - In the future, there will be short - term local unlocking disturbances, with a peak in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to follow the "policy dividends + high - quality assets" principle, adopt the dumbbell strategy, explore the stable dividend value of affordable housing and municipal environmental - protection assets, and invest in new - infrastructure sectors such as data centers and clean energy. Also, grasp the incremental opportunities brought by expansion and issuance [82].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - China's public REITs have shifted from pilot projects to normal development, with a steady expansion in issuance scale and continuous enrichment of asset types in recent years. In 2025, the issuance scale declined slightly, but new "first - order" projects broadened the REITs asset landscape [13]. - Since 2021, the subscription multiples of China's public REITs have shown significant fluctuations, driven by product scarcity, market sentiment, and expected returns of asset types. The secondary - market performance of REITs is between the CSI 300 and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index, with low correlation to other assets, suitable for balancing portfolio volatility [19][27]. - The holders of the current public REITs' floating shares are highly concentrated, dominated by institutional investors. Brokerage proprietary trading is the main force, followed by insurance funds and industrial capital. Different types of REITs show significant sectoral differentiation in their holder structures [2][28]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review: From Valuation Fluctuation to Value Return Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - The issuance scale of public REITs in 2025 decreased compared to the previous high, but new asset types emerged. The subscription multiples fluctuated significantly from 2021 - 2025, and the secondary - market performance of REITs can be divided into six stages, with different reasons for each stage's performance [13][19][21]. - As of December 19, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index had a year - to - date increase of +3.2%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 and the CSI Convertible Bond Index, only better than the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The main reasons include the shift of funds, the narrowing of the primary - secondary market spread, and the weak fundamentals of underlying assets [22]. Institutional Allocation Preference Differences - Brokerage proprietary trading, insurance funds, and industrial capital are the main holders of public REITs' floating shares, accounting for over 84%. Brokerage proprietary trading prefers assets with high liquidity and valuation elasticity, while insurance funds focus on assets with stable long - term cash flows. Individual and mutual fund investors' participation is limited [2][28][30]. - The number of REITs products allocated by public fund FOFs has been increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. From the first to the third quarter of 2025, the allocation strategy of FOFs changed from diversified layout to concentrated addition of high - attention products [31][36]. Fundamental Analysis: Differentiated Performance of Asset Types - **Industrial Parks**: In 2025, the rental rate and rent level of industrial park REITs showed the characteristics of "intensified differentiation and supply - demand game". High - quality science and technology parks and core - location assets showed resilience, while some traditional industrial parks faced pressure [42]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: In 2025, the operating income of warehousing and logistics REITs mostly showed a fluctuating downward trend. The rental rate was differentiated, with core assets showing strong anti - risk ability, and the rent level generally declined [46]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, consumption REITs showed significant differentiation. The rental rate remained stable at a high level, while the rent level was differentiated. Core - area and high - quality - operation commercial assets had strong anti - risk ability [51]. - **Affordable Housing**: The affordable housing REIT market showed strong operational resilience, with most REITs maintaining a high rental rate and stable rent level, indicating strong anti - risk ability of the housing sector [54]. - **Transportation**: The core driving logic of the transportation sector is the recovery of travel demand and the improvement of asset operation efficiency. The traffic volume and toll revenue showed significant differentiation among different REITs [57]. - **Ecological and Environmental Protection**: The two listed ecological and environmental protection REITs showed good performance in the third quarter of 2025, with an increase in waste treatment volume and sewage treatment volume [61]. - **Energy**: In 2025, except for Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT, the revenue of other energy REITs declined significantly. The photovoltaic field performed well, while the wind power field was generally sluggish [63]. - **Municipal Utilities**: The heating area and charging area of Guotai Haitong Jinan Energy Heating REIT remained basically stable in 2025, but the heat - stop rate and charging rate decreased significantly in the third quarter [67]. - **Water Conservancy**: The operating income of YinHua Shaoxing Raw Water Water Conservancy REIT increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025, mainly due to the increase in the supply of raw water [69]. - **New Infrastructure**: The two new infrastructure REITs disclosed their operating income for the first time in the third quarter of 2025, and their trusteeship service fee collection rates were 100%, laying a good foundation for subsequent operations [71]. Investment Recommendations: Structural Opportunities under Policy Dividends and Asset Differentiation Primary Market: Select Projects in a Differentiated Market - Since this year, the enthusiasm for new REIT subscriptions has declined, and some REITs have broken their issue prices after listing. The return on new subscriptions has decreased due to the weak secondary - market performance and the narrowing of the primary - secondary market spread. Different asset types have shown differentiated performance, and it is recommended to focus on high - quality projects and be cautious about long - term strategic allocations [3][75]. Secondary Market: A Dumbbell Strategy for Offense and Defense - In asset allocation, public REITs can meet the investment needs of "idle funds + long - term holding". Appropriate allocation of REITs in the investment portfolio can improve the Sharpe ratio, but the allocation ratio should be moderate [77][78]. - In the future, there will be short - term local unlocking disturbances, with a peak in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to follow the "policy dividend + high - quality assets" principle, adopt a dumbbell strategy. On one hand, explore the stable dividend value of affordable housing and municipal environmental protection assets; on the other hand, lay out new infrastructure sectors such as data centers and clean energy. Also, seize the incremental opportunities brought by expansion [3][82].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a bullish trend, although it may enter a phase of wide fluctuations in the short term. The current index has significant room for growth compared to previous bull markets, but the duration of the bull market may be more critical than the magnitude of the increase due to government policies promoting a "slow bull" market [2] - The report highlights the attractiveness of fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment, suggesting that the 10-year government bond ETF offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for investors [3] - The report notes that the A-share market is showing signs of recovery, with a focus on defensive and consumer sectors in the short term, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are recommended for medium-term investment [4] Market Data Summary - The A-share market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3902.81, up 0.70%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 13147.68, up 1.08% [8] - The report indicates a slight net inflow into stock ETFs, with small and mid-cap theme ETFs being the main contributors to this inflow [4] - The report also mentions that the issuance of credit bonds increased by 16.86% month-on-month, with a total issuance of 13153.34 billion yuan in November 2025 [7] Industry Research Summary - The report categorizes the electric power equipment and new energy sector into high-growth segments (such as AIDC power supplies, solid-state batteries, hydrogen ammonia, and energy storage) and "anti-involution" segments (including lithium batteries, wind power, and photovoltaics), each presenting unique investment opportunities [12] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to macroeconomic improvements and supply-side policy advancements, with a focus on sectors like phosphate chemicals, potassium fertilizers, and lithium battery materials [14] - The report emphasizes the investment potential in the hydrogen ammonia and energy storage sectors, particularly in the context of domestic bidding and overseas opportunities [15]

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the ongoing expansion and diversification of public REITs in China, highlighting the inclusion of various asset types and industries, with a projected market size of 2.3 to 3.8 trillion yuan, indicating a potential 10-16 times expansion from current levels [7][8][10] - The average dividend yield of public REITs from 2022 to 2025 is 5.73%, surpassing the average yield of the CSI Dividend Index at 5.52%, showcasing their attractiveness as a stable income asset [8][9] - Public REITs are characterized by a dual return structure comprising dividend income and asset appreciation, with a notable annualized return of 23.66% over the past year [9][10] Industry and Company - The Chinese duty-free industry is entering a new cycle, with Hainan's duty-free sales showing signs of recovery, driven by policy support and improving consumer confidence, with sales growth of 3%, 13%, and 27% from September to November 2025 [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy optimization in the duty-free sector, with recent expansions in both offshore and onshore duty-free policies, enhancing consumer access and convenience [18][19] - The report identifies key players in the duty-free market, such as China Duty Free Group, which holds a 78% market share, and highlights the strategic importance of airport channels for future growth [20][21] Automotive Industry - The report outlines the advancements in smart driving technology, with companies like Tesla and Huawei leading the way in achieving Level 4 automation through end-to-end algorithms [24][25] - The penetration rate of smart driving is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating an increase from 11.3% to 26.3% for highway NOA and from 6.1% to 10.9% for urban NOA by 2025 [25] - The global market for Robotaxi is projected to reach nearly 10 trillion yuan, with companies like Waymo and Apollo at the forefront of commercialization efforts [25][26] Non-Banking Industry - The report highlights the importance of the second pillar of the pension system in China, focusing on enterprise and occupational pensions, which are expected to grow at an annualized rate of 8%, outpacing nominal GDP growth [26][27] - The investment behavior of pension funds is shifting towards a "barbell" strategy, balancing stable cash flow assets with high-growth sectors, indicating a significant increase in equity allocations [27][28]

Group 1: Industry Research - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the expansion of public REITs into the commercial real estate sector, providing opportunities to revitalize a trillion-yuan asset market and accelerate market expansion [1] - The introduction of public REITs comes at a time when the real estate sector is under pressure, prompting a shift from "heavy development" to "heavy operation" for companies [1] - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory alignment and the importance of product valuation and operational quality in the short term, while anticipating accelerated market development with the expansion of product categories and regulatory improvements [1] Group 2: Company Research - The report notes that the company, Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ), has secured over 100 million USD in orders from North American data centers, leading to an upward revision of the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 0.6%, 5.1%, and 9.4% to 3.07 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.58 billion yuan respectively [2] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.00, 3.71, and 4.47 yuan respectively [2] - The report indicates that as electricity demand in North America continues to grow, the company's service scope is expanding, and the power sector is expected to create a third growth curve for the company, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Macro and Strategy - The public REITs index has rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.2%, and the average weekly change for property and operating rights REITs was +0.1% and +0.7% respectively [9][10] - The total market value of REITs increased to 218.8 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.52%, up 0.13 percentage points from the previous week [10][11] Chemical Industry - The 2026 refrigerant quota distribution plan has been released, with a reduction of 3,000 tons for R22 production quotas and a complete elimination of R141b quotas [14][15] - The flexibility of the third-generation refrigerant quotas has been enhanced, allowing for two adjustments per year, with a total not exceeding 30% of the quota amount [14][15] - The chemical industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook for refrigerants, particularly R32 and R134a, due to tightening quota constraints [15] Mechanical Industry - Tesla plans to launch the Optimus V3 robot in Q1 2026, with a production capacity target of 1 million units by the end of next year [16][17] - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to enter a large-scale production phase, benefiting both the complete machine and component supply chains [17][18] Oilfield Services - The company is a leading global oilfield service provider, with a focus on offshore oil and gas exploration and production [28][29] - The company is expected to benefit from China's offshore oil and gas development, with a projected capital expenditure of 135 billion yuan in 2025 [29][30] - The drilling platform utilization rate is high, and daily fees are expected to rise due to a decrease in retired platforms [29][30] Chemical Manufacturing - WanHua Chemical reported a revenue of 53.32 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a net profit of 3.03 billion yuan [31][32] - The polyurethane segment is experiencing a mixed demand, with a planned capacity expansion of 700,000 tons for MDI by Q2 2026 [32][33] - The petrochemical segment is under pressure from price declines, but revenue is expected to grow due to increased production capacity [33] Agricultural Solutions - Guoguang Co. reported a revenue of 1.523 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.09% [35][36] - The company is focusing on promoting comprehensive crop management solutions, with a significant increase in R&D investment [35][36] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [36][37] Dental Care - Dengkang Dental achieved a revenue of 1.228 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16.66% [38] - The company is adjusting its online marketing strategy, which has led to a temporary slowdown in growth [38]

Core Points - The company held the sixth meeting of the second board of independent directors on August 4, 2025, in Beijing, which was legally valid and attended by three independent directors [1] - The meeting approved the proposal to issue public REITs based on the Dalian Zhuanghe III offshore wind power project as the underlying asset, which is expected to help the company activate existing assets and optimize its capital structure [1] - The pricing of the fund subscription will be determined based on the final market inquiry results, ensuring a fair and reasonable pricing method [1] - The independent directors unanimously agreed that the related transactions do not harm the legitimate rights and interests of the company and all shareholders, especially minority shareholders, and consented to submit the matter to the company's 41st board meeting for further review [1] - The voting results showed unanimous support with 3 votes in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [1]