Core Insights - The November core inflation unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising skepticism among economists due to data collection issues caused by a prolonged government shutdown [1][3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since March 2021, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below economists' expectations [1][3] Data Collection Issues - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faced significant data collection challenges due to a 43-day government shutdown, which hindered the collection of October price data, leading to potential distortions in both year-on-year and month-on-month data [3][4] - Economists criticized the BLS for assuming zero growth in rental prices for October, which artificially lowered the November inflation figures [3][6] Market Reactions - Despite doubts about the reliability of the data, U.S. stock markets rebounded following the CPI release, with the three major indices opening higher [3][8] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January increased slightly to about 22%, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2026 [3][8] Housing Costs Concerns - Housing costs emerged as a major point of contention, with a year-on-year increase of only 3%, the smallest in over four years, raising questions about the accuracy of the inflation data [9][10] - The report indicated that core goods prices rose by 1.4% year-on-year, while energy prices increased by 4.2%, highlighting the mixed signals in the inflation data [9][10] Economic Outlook - Economists expressed concerns that the data collection delays and the timing of data collection during discount periods could further distort the inflation figures [4][6] - The overall sentiment among market participants remains divided, with some viewing the data as a potential signal for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, while others caution against overreacting to potentially flawed data [8][10]

在这一轮大规模融资计划背后，软银集团已同意向OpenAI投资300亿美元。为了资助这一赌注，软银在 上个月出售了价值58亿美元的英伟达股份。预计到今年年底，OpenAI将从软银处获得剩余的225亿美元 计划融资。 OpenAI正计划在一轮新的融资中募集高达1000亿美元资金，以支持其雄心勃勃的增长计划。 据《华尔街日报》19日援引知情人士透露，这轮融资目前处于早期阶段。如果OpenAI能顺利募集到全 额目标资金，其公司估值可能高达8300亿美元。该初创公司计划最快在明年第一季度末完成这轮融资， 不过交易条款仍可能发生变化。 目前尚不清楚是否有足够的投资者需求来通过这一目标。此次融资将是OpenAI在公开市场对人工智能 支出的狂热情绪消退后面临的最大考验之一。尽管对人工智能泡沫的担忧已经对许多相关科技股造成压 力，OpenAI仍需积极寻求大量资本以保持竞争力。 OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman此前已在全球范围内寻找投资者以建立资本池，据《华尔街日报》此前 报道，该公司正在权衡潜在的首次公开募股（IPO）。为了在快速变化的市场中构建其人工智能模型， OpenAI需要极其充裕的资金支持。 巨额注资与战略布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of investors is shifting from the interest rate decision to the guidance on the future tightening path from the Bank of Japan, particularly comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda after the meeting [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates the Bank of Japan will raise the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in thirty years [1]. - Nomura's analysis suggests that the rate hike decision alone may not catalyze further increases in yields, as the market has already priced in these expectations [1][2]. - There is skepticism regarding whether Ueda will indicate a significantly higher neutral rate than the current market pricing of 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Future Rate Guidance - Analysts believe that if the Bank of Japan fails to convey a faster tightening pace than the market expects, the meeting could be perceived as a "non-event" [1]. - The consensus indicates that the policy rate may reach 1.0% by mid-2026, and any signals of continued rate hikes in 2026 would not surprise the market [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Implications - A simple rate hike may not be sufficient to support a stronger yen; Ueda would need to suggest an accelerated pace of rate increases to prevent yen depreciation [3]. - The current average rate hike pace since the end of negative interest rates is approximately every seven months, with market expectations for the next increase to occur by the third quarter of 2026 [3]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Considerations - While the focus is on the central bank meeting, fiscal policy developments are also important, with key tax reform outlines and preliminary budget proposals expected around December 19 and 26 [4]. - The potential removal of income limits proposed by the Democratic Party for the People could lead to significant tax revenue losses, impacting yields and the yen [5]. - If the initial budget for fiscal year 2026 can be kept below 122.4 trillion yen, it may be viewed positively by the bond market; exceeding 125 trillion yen would have negative implications [5].

周四，亿万富翁Bill Ackman宣布，旗下公司Howard Hughes将以21亿美元收购保险公司Vantage Risk。 Ackman在声明中表示： 自2020年以来，私募巨头Apollo Global和KKR已全资收购人寿保险关联公司，利用退休产品的保费收入 为数千亿美元的投资提供资金。 激进投资者Daniel Loeb今年早些时候也克服部分股东反对，成功推动其伦敦上市公司转型为再保险业 务。 激进投资者Bill Ackman正试图打造"新版伯克希尔哈撒韦"。 收购Vantage是Howard Hughes转型为多元化控股公司的里程碑事件。 根据协议，Howard Hughes将通过现金及Ackman旗下对冲基金Pershing Square至多10亿美元的股权投 资完成这笔收购。Pershing Square是Howard Hughes的最大股东，后者在公开市场已沉寂十年。 这笔交易标志着Ackman在仿效沃伦·巴菲特的投资模式上迈出关键一步。伯克希尔哈撒韦是最早利用保 险浮存金，即收取的保费、用于支付索赔和投资的资金，作为多元化投资组合低成本资金来源的先驱之 一。 该收购也使Ackman加入日益 ...

在华尔街机构投资者眼中，2026年最大的市场威胁已经明确锁定：人工智能驱动的科技股泡沫破裂。 德意志银行最新客户调查显示，57%的受访者将科技泡沫破裂列为三大风险之首，创下单一风险选择比 例的历史新高。 排名第二的风险同样引人关注——新任美联储主席推动激进降息政策并引发市场动荡。这一担忧反映出 投资者对货币政策不确定性的深度焦虑。私募资本危机位列第三大风险。 德银分析师Jim Reid在报告中指出，从未见过单一风险如此领先于其他选项，使其成为2026年"压倒性的 主导担忧"。这种高度一致的警觉性本身就值得关注。 相比之下，美国经济硬着陆仅获得9%受访者选择，表明市场认为美国经济衰退将是"重大意外"。 科技泡沫担忧达历史高峰 57%的受访者将科技泡沫破裂列为2026年三大风险之一，这一比例远超以往任何单一风险选项。Reid表 示，如此压倒性的共识"前所未见"，凸显出机构投资者对当前AI相关股票估值的深度担忧。 与1990年代末的互联网泡沫相比，当前潜在泡沫呈现不同特征。 Reid分析称，尽管1990年代泡沫具有全球性，但当前潜在过度集中在美国AI相关股票。然而，今天的 AI龙头企业规模更大，系统重要性更强，"可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming expiration of over $7.1 trillion in options contracts on Wall Street is expected to create significant market volatility, marking a historic event known as "quadruple witching" [1][2]. Group 1: Record Option Expiration - This week's expiration is unprecedented in scale, with over $7.1 trillion in nominal risk exposure set to expire, surpassing all previous records [2]. - Approximately $5 trillion of this exposure is linked to the S&P 500 index, while an additional $880 billion is associated with individual stocks [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics on Quadruple Witching Day - Quadruple witching occurs four times a year, leading to heightened trading activity as traders and market makers engage in significant closing, rolling, or hedging operations [4]. - The trading volume of zero-day-to-expiration options related to the S&P 500 has reached a historical high, accounting for over 62% of total options trading volume, further complicating the market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Impacts - The massive options expiration could lead to increased market volatility, with expectations of trading volumes exceeding normal levels as traders settle their positions [5]. - Conversely, there is a possibility of a "pin" effect, where stock prices stabilize around heavily traded strike prices due to market makers' hedging activities [6]. Group 4: Technical Levels and Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index is currently in a "negative gamma" zone between 6700 and 6900 points, indicating a tendency for amplified volatility [7]. - The 6800-point level is identified as a critical "risk pivot," with potential implications for market direction depending on whether the index can maintain above or falls below this threshold [7].

Market Overview - The US CPI unexpectedly cooled, strengthening rate cut trades, and combined with Micron's earnings report, the S&P 500 rose nearly 0.8%, ending a four-day decline [2] - Major tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla up 3.45% and Micron soaring approximately 12% [2] - The US dollar initially fell but ended slightly higher, while the Chinese yuan strengthened again, approaching 7.03 after the CPI report [3] Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims fell to 224,000, reversing the previous surge trend [8] - The November core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, marking the lowest since 2021, although economists expressed concerns about potential data distortions due to government shutdowns [7][23] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, reiterating that inflation will return to the 2% target in the medium term, with no clear easing guidance [9] - The Bank of England adopted a hawkish stance, cutting rates by 25 basis points with a close 5-4 vote, indicating that further easing will be more challenging [10][25] Corporate Developments - Micron's CEO stated that the company has sold out its HBM capacity for 2026 and is signing unprecedented long-term contracts, indicating a structural shortage in the industry [34] - OpenAI released GPT-5.2-Codex, claiming significant improvements in software engineering and cybersecurity capabilities, and is exploring new financing options up to $100 billion [26] - Trump's media group surged over 40% after announcing plans to acquire a fusion energy company, TAE Technologies, with a valuation exceeding $6 billion [27] Industry Trends - The virtual digital human sector in China has established its first national standard, which is expected to drive significant growth in the market, projected to reach 480.6 billion yuan by 2025 [37] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to strengthen capacity regulation in the photovoltaic industry, aiming for a dynamic balance of production capacity by 2026 [30] - The AI healthcare sector in China is expected to grow from 97.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 159.8 billion yuan by 2028, with significant growth in AI medical imaging and AI pharmaceuticals [41]

特朗普政府力挺人工智能（AI）等高科技，但数据中心的建设热潮也招了民主党人的非议，最近被盯 上的商务部长卢特尼克就被指疑似利用政策东风牟取私利。 美东时间18日周四，美国国会公布的信函显示，25名民主党议员正在推动对卢特尼克存在利益冲突的调 查。以参议员Elizabeth Warren为首的民主党议员17日周三致函商务部的代理监察长Duane Townsend，要 求调查卢特尼克是否违反道德准则，利用职权推动AI数据中心项目为家族谋利。 这些民主党议员质疑卢特尼克在推动数据中心发展的官方行动可能受到利益冲突影响，这些行动可能使 他的家族获利，却让普通美国民众承担更高的能源成本。卢特尼克此前拥有并领导金融服务公司Cantor Fitzgerald（下称"Cantor"），该公司持有房地产经纪公司Newmark Group Inc.的股份，后者为数据中心 提供租赁服务。 信函公布当天，周四稍早的媒体报道指出，卢特尼克的Cantor股权转让直到10月初才完成，他还获得了 特朗普政府的道德豁免。 商务部发言人此后回应称，卢特尼克已完全遵守其道德协议中关于资产剥离和回避的条款，并将继续这 样做，包括出售Cantor和N ...

在发布GPT-5.2系列模型一周后，OpenAI再次出手，美东时间18日周四推出基于GPT-5.2的新一代Codex模型GPT-5.2-Codex，号称最先进的智能体编码模型， 聚焦专业软件工程和防御性网络安全，进一步巩固其在AI编程领域对谷歌Gemini的竞争优势。 OpenAI介绍，GPT-5.2-Codex在编码性能、网络安全能力和长周期任务处理上均实现突破。GPT-5.2-Codex在SWE-Bench Pro测试中准确率达到56.4%，在 Terminal-Bench 2.0测试中达到64.0%，刷新两项基准测试纪录。该模型已于发布当天在所有Codex界面向付费ChatGPT用户开放，API用户接入正在推进中。 OpenAI特别强调GPT-5.2-Codex在网络安全方面的显著提升。CEO Sam Altman提到，本月早些时候，一名安全研究人员使用上一代模型GPT-5.1-Codex-Max 就发现并负责任地披露了React中可能导致源代码暴露的漏洞。OpenAI方面认为，新模型尚未达到"高"级别网络安全能力，但公司正在为未来模型跨越这一 门槛做准备。 OpenAI表示，GPT-5.2-Codex ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 Meta正开发新款AI图片和刷视频模型。 还探索World AI模型。 AI模型代码为Mango。（华尔街日报） ...