Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock, has gained significant traction as a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, attracting attention from President Trump due to his reform ideas and suitability for the role [1][5]. Group 1: Candidate Evaluation - Rieder's probability of being selected as Federal Reserve Chair surged from 6% to 49% on the prediction market Polymarket, making him the frontrunner [2]. - Trump has completed interviews with candidates and is expected to announce his choice soon, with Rieder and Kevin Warsh being highlighted as strong contenders [1][10]. - Concerns have emerged within Trump's inner circle regarding whether Rieder would adhere to the President's desire for rapid interest rate cuts or maintain an independent stance [4]. Group 2: Background and Qualifications - Rieder has a strong Wall Street background and an open attitude towards reforming the Federal Reserve, enhancing his candidacy [5]. - As BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, he manages approximately $2.4 trillion in bond strategies and has extensive market experience, having started his career at Lehman Brothers [6]. - Unlike other candidates, Rieder has never held a position within the Federal Reserve system, which may allow him to avoid traditional constraints [6]. Group 3: Policy Perspectives - Rieder's critical views on the Federal Reserve resonate with Trump, as he has publicly stated that current interest rates post-rate cuts are still too high for the housing market to recover [7]. - He believes that inflation is no longer a pressing issue and that the Federal Reserve should focus on the weakening labor market [7]. - Rieder advocates for the Federal Reserve to halt balance sheet reductions to prevent market turmoil, positioning himself as a pragmatic rather than ideological candidate [8]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market expectations suggest that Rieder would adopt a data-driven approach, balancing the demands of the White House with the need to maintain the independence of the central bank [9]. - The selection process is nearing completion, with Rieder competing against other candidates, including Hassett and current Fed governors [10][11].

Group 1 - The Japanese yen experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable rebound after three consecutive declines, leading to a maximum intraday drop of approximately 1.75% against the US dollar, marking the largest increase since August of the previous year [4] - Speculation arose regarding potential intervention by the Japanese government in the currency market, possibly in coordination with the US government, due to the sudden rise in the yen [4][6] - The Japanese government has not confirmed any intervention, but officials expressed heightened vigilance regarding currency market dynamics, contributing to market uncertainty [5][6] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve's inquiries about the yen's exchange rate sparked discussions about possible intervention, with traders interpreting this as a sign of potential support for the yen [6][10] - Analysts noted that the yen's recent movements were closely monitored due to its proximity to critical intervention levels, with the 160 yen per dollar mark being a significant threshold for past interventions [8][9] - The Japanese government had previously intervened in the currency market when the yen fell below the 160 mark, spending nearly $100 billion to support the currency [9] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan indicated a willingness to maintain low borrowing costs while expressing confidence in a moderate economic recovery, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [12][13] - There are concerns that a stronger yen could lead to sell-offs in US equities, as historical correlations suggest that fluctuations in the yen may impact market volatility [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the Japanese yen have sparked widespread speculation about potential intervention by the Japanese government, possibly in coordination with the U.S. government [1][7]. Group 1: Yen Movements - The yen experienced a significant rebound after three consecutive declines, with the dollar-yen pair showing a maximum intraday drop of approximately 1.75%, marking the largest increase for the yen since August of the previous year [5]. - The first wave of yen appreciation occurred during the European market's early session, where the dollar-yen rate fell to 155.63, the lowest since December 24 of the previous year [2][5]. - The yen's recent surge coincides with political instability in Japan, as the House of Representatives was dissolved for the first time on the opening day of a parliamentary session in 60 years, with elections scheduled for February 8 [6]. Group 2: Speculation on Intervention - Market speculation about potential intervention was fueled by reports that the New York Federal Reserve contacted financial institutions regarding the yen's exchange rate, which traders interpreted as a sign of possible U.S. support for Japanese intervention [7]. - The notion of a "red line" for intervention is associated with the yen approaching the 160 mark against the dollar, a level at which Japan has previously intervened, spending nearly $100 billion to support the yen [8][9]. - Analysts noted that the recent inquiries by the New York Fed could indicate that any potential intervention would not be unilateral, suggesting a coordinated approach [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Japanese government has been under pressure due to fiscal uncertainties and rising yields, with the yen depreciating over 4% since October, raising concerns about the currency's stability [9]. - The Bank of Japan has indicated a willingness to maintain low borrowing costs while also signaling potential future rate hikes, which could impact the yen's value [11]. - There is a noted correlation between the yen's strength and volatility in U.S. equity markets, suggesting that a stronger yen could trigger broader market sell-offs [12].

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 投资者等待下周美联储会议和大型科技公司财报。美股主要股指涨跌互现。道指跌0.6%，标普基本持 平，本周累计跌0.42%，去年6月以来首次两周连跌。科技七巨头涨超1%。英特尔绩后暴跌17%。苹果 跌0.12%，本周累计跌近4%、连续第八周下跌，创2022年5月以来最长连跌。 周五美债交投相对平淡，10年期美债收益率跌1个基点，2年期收益率持平。 美元重挫0.87%，创去年8月以来最大日跌幅。非美货币大涨，日元因市场传言日本当局可能干预而飙 升1.6%。 加密货币盘中反弹后回落，比特币和以太坊大体持平于周四尾盘。 贵金属继续飙升。现货黄金涨1%、逼近5000美元，本周累计涨超8%、创近六年来最大周涨幅。现货白 银周五盘中暴涨7%，首次突破100美元大关。美油涨超2%，报道称特朗普企图阻挠伊拉克出口石油。 亚洲时段，AH股震荡走高，商业航天、光伏大爆发，碳酸锂突破18万大关，沪银站上25000创历史新 高。 要闻 公募业绩基准新规落地：业绩长期低于基准，基金经理应降薪，设置一年过渡期。 金属狂欢掀高潮！白银首次破百、黄金逼近5000美 ...

新近报道显示，特朗普政府正采取多管齐下的策略遏制伊朗在中东地区的影响力，国际原油闻讯加速上行，延续一个月来每周涨势。 继周四晚美国总统特朗普宣布调集美军舰队前往伊朗后，本周五又传出美国威胁限制伊拉克出售石油所得美元收入的消息，据称美方企图迫使伊拉克 新政府排除伊朗支持的武装团体。这一系列举措推动国际原油期货价格周五全天保持涨势。美股早盘刷新日高时，美国WTI原油靠近61.30美元，布伦 特原油涨至66美元上方，日内分别涨约3.2%和3.1%。 据媒体周五的爆料，美国驻巴格达临时代办Joshua Harris过去两个月反复警告伊拉克政界高层领袖，如果伊朗支持的武装团体出现在新政府中，美方 将采取惩罚措施，包括限制伊拉克出售石油所得美元的现金供应等经济措施。换言之，美国可能对伊拉克实施制裁，制裁对象可能包括对伊拉克至关 重要的石油收入。还有媒体援引消息人士称，这是特朗普遏制伊朗在伊拉克影响力运动中"最严厉的例证"。 此前，特朗普已重新向伊朗高级领导层发出动用军事力量的威胁。据新华社报道，美东时间22日周四，特朗普在"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调 集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。其他媒体获悉，一支美国海 ...

23日周五，全球金属市场掀起新一轮上涨高潮。 纽约期银和伦敦现货白银均史上首次突破100美元关口，黄金连续第五个交易日刷新历史新高，进一步逼近5000美元大关，伦铜重上1.3万美元，接近 本月稍早创下的盘中最高纪录。其他贵金属和工业金属涨势凌厉。周五美股早盘刷新日高时，纽约铂金和钯金期货分别涨超6%和约7%，工业金属伦 镍和伦锡周五盘中均涨超4%。 这轮涨势受到多重因素推动。美元走弱、投资者资金大规模流出货币和主权债券，特朗普抨击美联储威胁央行独立性以及地缘政治局势动荡，均加剧 了避险情绪，共同推动金属持续上涨。 评论提及，特朗普关于美国"舰队"正前往伊朗的言论促使投资者涌入白银、黄金和铜等基本金属。这里所说的舰队是指，据新华社报道，美国总统特 朗普22日周四在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。 华尔街机构普遍看涨贵金属后市。华尔街见闻上周提到，摩根大通预计，金价到2026年第四季度将达到5000美元，长期甚至看向6000美元；花旗在牛 市情景下将未来0-3个月金价目标上调至5000美元，白银目标上调至100美元；瑞银预计白银从当前水平仍有约25%的上涨空间，但 ...

Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of approximately 921 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.75% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be a loss of 174 to 214 million yuan, which is an increase in loss compared to 2024's loss of 167 million yuan [1][2] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be a loss of 201 to 241 million yuan [1] Business Recovery - The storage chip segment benefits from an AI-driven industry upcycle, with product prices steadily recovering and quarterly revenue and gross margins showing sequential growth [2] - The storage business has achieved profitability, marking a significant turning point after a prolonged price decline in the small-capacity storage chip market [2] Investment Impact - The company has made a cumulative investment of approximately 411 million yuan in Lishuan Technology, with an expected investment loss of about 166 million yuan in 2025, which significantly impacts overall performance [3] - The first self-developed GPU chip "7G100" has successfully completed its first tape-out in 2025, but the investment is not expected to yield short-term returns [3] R&D Investment - The company maintains high levels of R&D investment, focusing on integrated technology in storage, computing, and networking [5] - The 1xnm flash memory product has achieved mass production and sales, and automotive-grade NAND Flash and NOR Flash products have been mass-produced in multiple vehicle models [5] Future Considerations - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of profitability in the storage business, the strategic logic behind GPU investments, the ramp-up speed of automotive-grade products, and the commercialization timeline for Wi-Fi 7 chips [6] - The company faces challenges in converting revenue growth into sustainable profits despite the positive momentum in its core business [6][7]

欧盟委员会表示，将提议再次暂停针对美国的930亿欧元（约合1091.9亿美元）报复性贸易措施六个 月，这一措施原定于2月7日生效。此举标志着在特朗普撤回对欧洲国家的关税威胁后，跨大西洋贸易紧 张局势暂时缓和。 与此同时，他强调欧盟保留了在需要时迅速激活报复性关税的能力。他称： "必须绝对明确的是——这些措施目前只是暂停，未来如有必要，我们可以随时重启。" 此次延期决定表明，欧盟正将重心放在推动执行去年8月达成的欧美贸易联合声明上。该声明经过数月 谈判达成，旨在缓和双方长期存在的贸易紧张关系。 1月23日，据路透报道，该方案最初于去年上半年制定，当时欧盟正与美国就贸易协议进行谈判。去年8 月，布鲁塞尔与华盛顿就贸易问题达成联合声明后，该方案被搁置六个月。 上周，美国总统特朗普以"寻求获得格陵兰岛控制权"为由，威胁对包括部分欧盟成员国在内的八个欧洲 国家加征新关税。此举一度促使欧盟此前已准备的报复性贸易措施成为潜在的反制选项。 然而，随着美方随后撤回相关关税威胁，欧盟决定继续保持其反制措施的暂停状态。据新华社，美国总 统特朗普21日在社交媒体发文称，他已经同北约秘书长吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛的协议制定了框 架， ...

Core Viewpoint - The key to competition in the commercial aerospace industry lies in surpassing the profitability threshold of "2.8 tons payload at 800 km orbit," which is fundamentally linked to advancements in upstream hard technology, particularly in engine performance and 3D printing capabilities [1][2]. Industry Analysis - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a critical development phase, with 2026-2027 identified as a pivotal window for Chinese commercial rocket companies, marking the first flights of several medium to large liquid rockets and the practical testing of reusable technology [1][2]. - The demand for satellite internet, such as GW constellations, is driving the need for enhanced payload capacity and cost control, making companies that can meet the "2.8 tons at 800 km" threshold key players in the market [1][2]. Technological Advancements - Engine technology is evolving towards full-flow staged combustion and large thrust capabilities, which are essential for increasing rocket performance limits. Currently, most Chinese commercial rocket engines utilize gas generator cycles, but the industry is shifting towards more efficient full-flow staged combustion designs [3][4]. - 3D printing has become a core production capability in the aerospace sector, significantly reducing production cycles and weight. For instance, production times have decreased from 50 hours to 10 hours, with weight reductions exceeding 50% for certain components [10][11]. Market Dynamics - The transition from small solid rockets to medium and large liquid reusable rockets is reshaping the supply chain, with a focus on core components like 3D printing, large storage tanks, and servo systems, which are gaining increased market attention [2][3]. - The Chinese 3D printing market is projected to reach approximately 41.5 billion yuan in 2024, with the aerospace sector accounting for about 16.7% of this market, highlighting the growing importance of this technology in commercial rocket manufacturing [10][11]. Structural and Material Innovations - As payload capacities increase, rocket structures are evolving towards larger dimensions, with tank costs comprising over 60% of the overall structure costs. New materials, such as stainless steel, are being adopted for storage tanks due to their strength and cost-effectiveness [13]. - The control systems in rockets are also being upgraded to meet the demands of high-frequency launches, transitioning from traditional electric servos to electromechanical hydraulic servos, creating new market opportunities for related supply chain companies [13].

英特尔最新发布的财报呈现出明显的割裂局面：尽管第四季度业绩超出预期，但由于当前季度指引疲软，引发了市场的抛售潮。华尔街分析师普 遍认为，供应受限是导致指引不及预期的核心原因，这一因素暂时掩盖了人工智能驱动下强劲的市场需求。 这家芯片巨头第四季度调整后每股收益为15美分，营收达到137亿美元，均高于LSEG（伦敦证券交易所集团）共识预期的8美分和134亿美元。然 而，其对第一季度的展望令华尔街感到失望。英特尔预计本季度营收在117亿美元至127亿美元之间，调整后每股收益仅为盈亏平衡。这两项数据 均显著低于分析师预期的125.1亿美元营收和5美分每股收益。 受令人失望的指引影响，英特尔股价在周五盘前交易中重挫13%。尽管英特尔的数据中心和人工智能业务显示出加速增长的迹象，但公司因制造 能力限制而无法满足这一需求，已成为投资者关注的焦点。 Desilva表示，如果产能充足，数据中心营收的表现本会显著优于季节性水平。目前，公司正在采取必要措施解决这一瓶颈，预计下一季度关键节 点的制造良率将有所提升，从而改善产品可用性。 2026年下半年或迎来催化剂 对于供应限制何时缓解，市场普遍将目光投向了今年晚些时候。Jeffer ...