Core Insights - Anthropic's AI programming tool, Claude Code, is leading a pivotal shift in the global software development industry, transitioning from manual coding to AI-driven coding with its new "Agentic" capabilities [1][2] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) for Claude Code is projected to exceed $1 billion by the end of 2025, contributing 12% to Anthropic's total ARR of approximately $9 billion [1][2] Group 1: Product Development and Market Position - The breakthrough is attributed to the launch of Anthropic's latest AI model, Claude Opus 4.5, which significantly enhances programming capabilities beyond mere code completion [2][3] - Claude Code's ability to understand natural language instructions and autonomously complete development tasks is driving competition among startups and tech giants like OpenAI and Google [2][3] - The evolution of AI programming tools has accelerated, with a shift from basic auto-completion features to early "agent-based" programming products by startups like Cursor and Windsurf [3][4] Group 2: User Adoption and Internal Practices - The internal adoption of Claude Code is notable, with nearly 100% of Anthropic's technical staff frequently using the tool, resulting in 95% of their code being generated by Claude Code [4][5] - Corporate clients exhibit similar usage patterns, allowing Anthropic to optimize its products through internal use [5][6] Group 3: Expansion into Non-Programming Areas - Anthropic has launched Cowork, an AI agent product aimed at non-programmers, which can manage files and interact with software without requiring coding [6][7] - Cowork is designed to handle various tasks such as filling out forms and sending emails, indicating a broader application of AI agents beyond programming [6][7] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The success of Claude Code is attracting more competitors into the AI programming market, with Cursor reporting an ARR of $1 billion and strong month-over-month revenue growth [7] - Major players like OpenAI, Google, and xAI are accelerating the development of their own agent-based programming products, intensifying competition in the market [7] - The core of this competition lies in the capabilities of underlying AI models, with Claude Opus 4.5 giving Anthropic a temporary advantage [7]

周五美股收盘，苹果股价微跌0.12%，本周累跌近4%、录得连续八周下跌，创下了自2022年5月以来最长的连跌纪录。 （苹果股价跌至去年10月中旬水平） 苹果股价自去年12月创下的52周高点288美元，回落至目前的248美元附近，跌幅高达13.8%。此外相比于科技七巨头其他成分股，自去年7月份以 来，苹果的资金流出情况尤为明显。 在投资者对硬件成本上升的担忧中，苹果股价已连续八周下跌。 （科技七巨头资金净流入趋势图） 抛售压力的核心导火索源自供应链端的预警。芯片巨头英特尔近期发布的悲观指引引发了市场对存储组件成本飙升的恐慌。由于AI硬件需求激 增，存储芯片价格正在经历剧烈上涨，市场普遍担忧这将严重侵蚀包括苹果在内的消费电子巨头的毛利率。 然而尽管市场情绪低迷，华尔街见闻提及，高盛在最新报告中维持了对苹果的"买入"评级，并建议投资者忽略短期噪音，在1月29日公司发布2026 财年第一季度财报前"抄底"。 市场对苹果近期走势的悲观情绪，主要源于存储芯片价格的快速上涨。 华尔街见闻提及，英特尔首席财务官David Zinsner在财报发布后坦言，尽管公司已锁定了上半年的供应，但存储价格在下半年可能成为挑战。 Coun ...

据报道，卡尼在达沃斯的演讲措辞强硬，直言"二战后建立的基于规则的国际秩序正在消亡"，世界已进 入大国零和博弈时代。虽未直接点名美国，但他明确提到"霸权国家"正在将关税、金融基础设施和供应 链武器化，对中等强国构成威胁。卡尼表示： "几十年来，像加拿大这样的国家在所谓的基于规则的国际秩序下繁荣发展，我们知道这个 故事部分是虚假的，霸权国家会在方便时豁免自己，贸易规则被不对称地执行，但这笔交易 不再奏效了。" 他呼吁中等强国放弃"顺从能换取安全"的幻想，转而采取联合行动。"中等强国必须采取一致行动，因 为如果我们不在谈判桌上，我们就会成为别人的盘中餐，"卡尼警告称，"如果仅与霸权国家进行双边谈 判，则是从弱势地位进行谈判。这不是主权，这是在接受从属地位的同时表演主权。" 针对特朗普对格陵兰岛的主权声索及相关关税威胁，卡尼表达了强硬立场："在北极主权问题上，我们 坚定地与格陵兰和丹麦站在一起。加拿大强烈反对因格陵兰问题征收关税。" 特朗普团队集体反击 报道称，特朗普在达沃斯的演讲中直接点名卡尼，称其对美国不够感激。"加拿大靠美国生存，"特朗普 说，"记住这一点，Mark，下次你发表声明的时候。"周四，特朗普在Tru ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets experienced significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and sudden shifts in monetary policy, leading to a week characterized by extreme fear and rapid rebounds, highlighting the fragility and unpredictability of the current macro environment [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The week began with Trump's comments regarding Greenland and subsequent tariff threats, triggering one of the most synchronized market sell-offs since the pandemic [2]. - The collapse of the Japanese bond market, referred to as the "Truss moment," further destabilized the largest bond market globally [2]. - Oil prices surged due to escalating tensions in Iran, while uncertainty surrounding the selection of the Federal Reserve chair intensified market volatility [1][2]. Group 2: Asset Performance - The stock market showed significant divergence, with the Nasdaq barely maintaining slight gains while other major indices declined, marking the first consecutive two-week drop for the S&P 500 since June 2025 [5]. - The Russell 2000 index underperformed the S&P 500 for the first time this year, ending a record 14-day winning streak [7]. - Gold prices rose for five consecutive days, nearing $5,000, while silver reached a peak of $103, reflecting strong demand amid market turmoil [13][15]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors faced a dilemma regarding whether to view the extreme volatility as a structural risk requiring hedging or merely as noise to be ignored [3]. - The traditional 60/40 investment strategy (60% stocks, 40% bonds) faced its largest single-day loss since October of the previous year, prompting discussions on the effectiveness of hedging strategies [20]. - Nearly half of the respondents in a recent Bank of America fund manager survey indicated a lack of protective measures against significant stock market declines, the highest level since 2018 [23]. Group 4: Upcoming Challenges - The upcoming earnings season poses a new test for the market, with major tech companies like META, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple set to report their results [25]. - The market is at a crossroads, determining whether earnings data can stabilize the situation or if macro uncertainties will continue to dominate risk asset pricing [25].

Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock, has gained significant traction as a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, attracting attention from President Trump due to his reform ideas and suitability for the role [1][5]. Group 1: Candidate Evaluation - Rieder's probability of being selected as Federal Reserve Chair surged from 6% to 49% on the prediction market Polymarket, making him the frontrunner [2]. - Trump has completed interviews with candidates and is expected to announce his choice soon, with Rieder and Kevin Warsh being highlighted as strong contenders [1][10]. - Concerns have emerged within Trump's inner circle regarding whether Rieder would adhere to the President's desire for rapid interest rate cuts or maintain an independent stance [4]. Group 2: Background and Qualifications - Rieder has a strong Wall Street background and an open attitude towards reforming the Federal Reserve, enhancing his candidacy [5]. - As BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, he manages approximately $2.4 trillion in bond strategies and has extensive market experience, having started his career at Lehman Brothers [6]. - Unlike other candidates, Rieder has never held a position within the Federal Reserve system, which may allow him to avoid traditional constraints [6]. Group 3: Policy Perspectives - Rieder's critical views on the Federal Reserve resonate with Trump, as he has publicly stated that current interest rates post-rate cuts are still too high for the housing market to recover [7]. - He believes that inflation is no longer a pressing issue and that the Federal Reserve should focus on the weakening labor market [7]. - Rieder advocates for the Federal Reserve to halt balance sheet reductions to prevent market turmoil, positioning himself as a pragmatic rather than ideological candidate [8]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market expectations suggest that Rieder would adopt a data-driven approach, balancing the demands of the White House with the need to maintain the independence of the central bank [9]. - The selection process is nearing completion, with Rieder competing against other candidates, including Hassett and current Fed governors [10][11].

Group 1 - The Japanese yen experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable rebound after three consecutive declines, leading to a maximum intraday drop of approximately 1.75% against the US dollar, marking the largest increase since August of the previous year [4] - Speculation arose regarding potential intervention by the Japanese government in the currency market, possibly in coordination with the US government, due to the sudden rise in the yen [4][6] - The Japanese government has not confirmed any intervention, but officials expressed heightened vigilance regarding currency market dynamics, contributing to market uncertainty [5][6] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve's inquiries about the yen's exchange rate sparked discussions about possible intervention, with traders interpreting this as a sign of potential support for the yen [6][10] - Analysts noted that the yen's recent movements were closely monitored due to its proximity to critical intervention levels, with the 160 yen per dollar mark being a significant threshold for past interventions [8][9] - The Japanese government had previously intervened in the currency market when the yen fell below the 160 mark, spending nearly $100 billion to support the currency [9] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan indicated a willingness to maintain low borrowing costs while expressing confidence in a moderate economic recovery, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [12][13] - There are concerns that a stronger yen could lead to sell-offs in US equities, as historical correlations suggest that fluctuations in the yen may impact market volatility [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the Japanese yen have sparked widespread speculation about potential intervention by the Japanese government, possibly in coordination with the U.S. government [1][7]. Group 1: Yen Movements - The yen experienced a significant rebound after three consecutive declines, with the dollar-yen pair showing a maximum intraday drop of approximately 1.75%, marking the largest increase for the yen since August of the previous year [5]. - The first wave of yen appreciation occurred during the European market's early session, where the dollar-yen rate fell to 155.63, the lowest since December 24 of the previous year [2][5]. - The yen's recent surge coincides with political instability in Japan, as the House of Representatives was dissolved for the first time on the opening day of a parliamentary session in 60 years, with elections scheduled for February 8 [6]. Group 2: Speculation on Intervention - Market speculation about potential intervention was fueled by reports that the New York Federal Reserve contacted financial institutions regarding the yen's exchange rate, which traders interpreted as a sign of possible U.S. support for Japanese intervention [7]. - The notion of a "red line" for intervention is associated with the yen approaching the 160 mark against the dollar, a level at which Japan has previously intervened, spending nearly $100 billion to support the yen [8][9]. - Analysts noted that the recent inquiries by the New York Fed could indicate that any potential intervention would not be unilateral, suggesting a coordinated approach [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Japanese government has been under pressure due to fiscal uncertainties and rising yields, with the yen depreciating over 4% since October, raising concerns about the currency's stability [9]. - The Bank of Japan has indicated a willingness to maintain low borrowing costs while also signaling potential future rate hikes, which could impact the yen's value [11]. - There is a noted correlation between the yen's strength and volatility in U.S. equity markets, suggesting that a stronger yen could trigger broader market sell-offs [12].

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 投资者等待下周美联储会议和大型科技公司财报。美股主要股指涨跌互现。道指跌0.6%，标普基本持 平，本周累计跌0.42%，去年6月以来首次两周连跌。科技七巨头涨超1%。英特尔绩后暴跌17%。苹果 跌0.12%，本周累计跌近4%、连续第八周下跌，创2022年5月以来最长连跌。 周五美债交投相对平淡，10年期美债收益率跌1个基点，2年期收益率持平。 美元重挫0.87%，创去年8月以来最大日跌幅。非美货币大涨，日元因市场传言日本当局可能干预而飙 升1.6%。 加密货币盘中反弹后回落，比特币和以太坊大体持平于周四尾盘。 贵金属继续飙升。现货黄金涨1%、逼近5000美元，本周累计涨超8%、创近六年来最大周涨幅。现货白 银周五盘中暴涨7%，首次突破100美元大关。美油涨超2%，报道称特朗普企图阻挠伊拉克出口石油。 亚洲时段，AH股震荡走高，商业航天、光伏大爆发，碳酸锂突破18万大关，沪银站上25000创历史新 高。 要闻 公募业绩基准新规落地：业绩长期低于基准，基金经理应降薪，设置一年过渡期。 金属狂欢掀高潮！白银首次破百、黄金逼近5000美 ...

新近报道显示，特朗普政府正采取多管齐下的策略遏制伊朗在中东地区的影响力，国际原油闻讯加速上行，延续一个月来每周涨势。 继周四晚美国总统特朗普宣布调集美军舰队前往伊朗后，本周五又传出美国威胁限制伊拉克出售石油所得美元收入的消息，据称美方企图迫使伊拉克 新政府排除伊朗支持的武装团体。这一系列举措推动国际原油期货价格周五全天保持涨势。美股早盘刷新日高时，美国WTI原油靠近61.30美元，布伦 特原油涨至66美元上方，日内分别涨约3.2%和3.1%。 据媒体周五的爆料，美国驻巴格达临时代办Joshua Harris过去两个月反复警告伊拉克政界高层领袖，如果伊朗支持的武装团体出现在新政府中，美方 将采取惩罚措施，包括限制伊拉克出售石油所得美元的现金供应等经济措施。换言之，美国可能对伊拉克实施制裁，制裁对象可能包括对伊拉克至关 重要的石油收入。还有媒体援引消息人士称，这是特朗普遏制伊朗在伊拉克影响力运动中"最严厉的例证"。 此前，特朗普已重新向伊朗高级领导层发出动用军事力量的威胁。据新华社报道，美东时间22日周四，特朗普在"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调 集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。其他媒体获悉，一支美国海 ...

23日周五，全球金属市场掀起新一轮上涨高潮。 纽约期银和伦敦现货白银均史上首次突破100美元关口，黄金连续第五个交易日刷新历史新高，进一步逼近5000美元大关，伦铜重上1.3万美元，接近 本月稍早创下的盘中最高纪录。其他贵金属和工业金属涨势凌厉。周五美股早盘刷新日高时，纽约铂金和钯金期货分别涨超6%和约7%，工业金属伦 镍和伦锡周五盘中均涨超4%。 这轮涨势受到多重因素推动。美元走弱、投资者资金大规模流出货币和主权债券，特朗普抨击美联储威胁央行独立性以及地缘政治局势动荡，均加剧 了避险情绪，共同推动金属持续上涨。 评论提及，特朗普关于美国"舰队"正前往伊朗的言论促使投资者涌入白银、黄金和铜等基本金属。这里所说的舰队是指，据新华社报道，美国总统特 朗普22日周四在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。 华尔街机构普遍看涨贵金属后市。华尔街见闻上周提到，摩根大通预计，金价到2026年第四季度将达到5000美元，长期甚至看向6000美元；花旗在牛 市情景下将未来0-3个月金价目标上调至5000美元，白银目标上调至100美元；瑞银预计白银从当前水平仍有约25%的上涨空间，但 ...