风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 会议强调，当前资本市场总体稳中向好，但仍然面临内外风险交织、新旧矛盾叠加的复杂严峻挑战。证 监会系统要深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，认真落实中央经济工作会议部署，按照中央金 融委会议、全国金融系统工作会议要求，坚持稳中求进、提质增效，紧扣防风险、强监管、促高质量发 展的工作主线，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革，提高制度包容性、适应性和竞争力、吸引力，努力 实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，切实增强市场内在稳定性，更好助力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期，为"十五五"良好开局积极贡献力量。 一是坚持稳字当头，巩固市场稳中向好势头。全方位加强 市场监测预警，及时做好逆周期调节，强化交易监管和信息披露监管，进一步维护交易公平性，严肃查 处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。继续深化公募基金改革，持续拓宽 中长期资金来源渠道和方式，推出各类适配长期投资的产品和风险管理工具，积极引导长期投资、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its growth and profitability expectations for TSMC, indicating the company is entering a new multi-year growth cycle driven by AI [1][3][8] Group 1: Growth Projections - TSMC has increased its five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) target for AI accelerator-related revenue from mid-40% to mid-to-high 50% for the period 2024-2029, leading to an overall revenue CAGR target increase from 20% to nearly 25% [1][3] - Goldman Sachs expects TSMC's revenue (in USD) to grow by 34.5% and 27.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, up from previous estimates of 30.4% and 28.0% [3] Group 2: Profitability Enhancements - TSMC's Q4 gross margin reached 62.3%, exceeding market expectations, and the long-term gross margin target has been raised from "53% and above" to "56% and above" [1][5] - Despite anticipated dilution from overseas capacity ramp-up in 2026, Goldman Sachs forecasts gross margins of 63.2% and 64.0% for 2026 and 2027, significantly higher than previous estimates [5] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Insights - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at $52-56 billion, surpassing market expectations and reflecting increased infrastructure spending and early equipment investments [4] - Goldman Sachs has raised its capital expenditure forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $56 billion and $65 billion, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 37% and 16% [4] Group 4: Advanced Packaging as a Growth Engine - Advanced packaging is emerging as a second growth engine for TSMC, with revenue from this segment expected to account for 8% in 2025 and slightly over 10% in 2026 [2][6] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its CoWoS shipment forecasts for 2026 and 2027, predicting significant year-on-year growth in revenue from this segment [6] Group 5: Strong Performance Driving Valuation Upgrades - TSMC's Q4 revenue reached NT$1,046.09 billion ($33.73 billion), with a year-on-year growth of 20.5%, exceeding company guidance and market expectations [7] - Based on the strong performance, Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 2.4%, 10.8%, and 11.6%, respectively, and increased the 12-month target price from NT$2,330 to NT$2,600 [7][8]

这一计划的出台背景是美国电价持续攀升。数据显示，美国平均零售电价在去年9月上涨7.4%至每千瓦时18.07美分的历史新高；居民电价在2025 年1月至8月间飙升10.5%，创下十多年来最大涨幅之一。激增的数据中心需求是推高电价的主要因素，PJM预计其系统峰值需求将在2030年前较 今年激增17%。 特朗普政府将在周五宣布一项前所未有的电力市场干预计划，迫使科技巨头为新建电厂买单，以遏制因数据中心激增而飙升的居民电价。这项紧 急行动标志着政府首次直接介入区域电力市场定价机制，目的是在不损害AI竞争力的同时，避免电力成本成为共和党今年中期选举的政治包袱。 据报道，特朗普政府与多个东北部州州长达成一致，将推动一场特殊的批发电力拍卖，要求科技公司竞标15年期的电力供应合同。无论是否实际 使用这些电力，科技公司都必须在合同期内付费，为价值约150亿美元的新电厂建设提供稳定收入来源。这场拍卖将由美国最大区域电网运营商 PJM Interconnection执行，该机构为东北部地区6700万客户提供服务。 "虽然'原则声明'似乎不包括要求PJM采取行动的法律强制，但来自特朗普政府和PJM各州两党联盟的压力，很可能促使电网运 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver prices, which has increased over 200% since early last year, poses significant challenges for the photovoltaic (PV) industry, leading to increased production costs and potential operational disruptions [1][2][5]. Group 1: Silver Price Impact on PV Industry - Silver paste has become the largest cost component in solar modules, rising from 3.4% of total costs in 2023 to 29% currently [2]. - The cost pressure from rising silver prices is forcing some PV companies to halt production or raise prices, with major manufacturers accelerating efforts to reduce silver usage [2][3]. - A 1000 yuan/kg increase in silver price raises the cost of solar cells by 0.01 yuan per watt, which can significantly impact the operational rates of factories in the low-margin PV sector [3]. Group 2: Company Responses and Market Dynamics - Leading companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar have raised their product prices due to rising raw material costs, with prices for mainstream 500W modules increasing to around 400 yuan (approximately 57 USD) [3]. - Mid-tier companies are facing severe financial strain, leading to extreme measures such as production halts, as seen with a 2GW battery manufacturer in Hunan and the established firm Yijing Photovoltaic [4]. - Despite efforts to clear excess capacity, companies like Trina Solar and JinkoSolar are issuing profit warnings, indicating potential net losses in 2025 due to the ongoing challenges in the market [5]. Group 3: Efforts to Reduce Silver Usage - The PV industry is adopting "de-silvering" strategies to mitigate the impact of high silver prices, with Longi Green Energy announcing plans to accelerate the use of alternative metals [6]. - Analysts predict that the industry could reduce silver usage by 17% this year through technologies like copper plating and silver-coated copper [6]. - However, the aggressive shift to alternative materials carries risks, including potential long-term reliability issues, as copper is less stable than silver and may not meet warranty requirements [7].

高盛称，全球原油市场"先把风险写进去了"，已经将伊朗供应中断计入预期。 高盛指出，这相当于把"油价风险溢价"与"潜在供应缺口"的映射关系摆到台面上：当前涨幅对应的，并 非极端断供，而是一个被市场认为可能持续的中断量级。 期权市场：70美元区间的概率上调 期权市场的定价更加明确地反映了这种担忧。 1月16日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新研报中称，布伦特原油今年以来上涨近6美元/桶至66美元/桶 以上，在其定价框架下，这一涨幅相当于市场已将未来12个月持续70万桶/日的伊朗相关供应中断计入 价格。 研报还指出，期权市场数据进一步印证了这一风险溢价：布伦特原油3个月远期合约到期时触及70美元 区间的概率从两周前的不到7%大幅升至15%，高于80美元/桶的概率仍偏低，为5%。 高盛还特别指出，供给端的另一条线索是，委内瑞拉增供预期在发酵。同时，重质油相对轻质油的品质 价差扩大约2美元/桶，与其"年末委内瑞拉重油产量增加30万桶/日"的假设一致。 伊朗风险：现货价格已在"对照"70万桶/日的中断 报告指出，全球原油市场正在计入与伊朗相关的显著供应中断风险： 布伦特升至66美元/桶以上、年初至今上涨近6美元/桶，结合其定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won experienced a brief rebound at the end of 2025 due to government intervention, but it quickly returned to a depreciation trend in early 2026, primarily driven by retail investors' renewed enthusiasm for foreign stocks, especially U.S. equities [1][3][15]. Group 1: Retail Investor Behavior - South Korean retail investors net purchased $2 billion in foreign stocks within the first ten days of 2026, indicating a significant outflow of capital that could not be offset by the country's trade surplus or U.S. Treasury concerns [3][10]. - The top stocks purchased by South Korean retail investors included Tesla ($452 million), Direxion's Tesla 2x leveraged ETF ($323 million), and Alphabet Class A shares ($195 million) [8][9]. - Retail investors have become the dominant force influencing the exchange rate, with their cross-border investment behavior deeply intertwined with the future trajectory of the won [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Government Response - Despite a strong current account surplus of $12.2 billion as of November 2025, the outflow from retail investors, totaling $11 billion, significantly contributed to the financial account deficit [10][11]. - The South Korean government has attempted to support the won through verbal interventions and monetary support, but these measures have proven to be short-lived [15][17]. - A potential solution to stabilize the won could involve tax policy changes, such as reducing capital gains tax on foreign stock sales, which may encourage capital repatriation [17][18].

Core Insights - Merge Labs, co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, has raised $252 million in funding, with OpenAI as the largest investor, aiming to develop brain-computer interface devices to seamlessly connect humans with AI [1] - The funding round was led by Bain Capital, with other investors including Gabe Newell, co-founder of Valve Corporation [1] - Merge plans to initially focus on medical applications before expanding to consumer products, although it has not disclosed its valuation [1] Company Overview - Merge aims to develop non-invasive brain-computer interface devices, differentiating itself from competitors like Neuralink, which focuses on invasive implants [2] - The company is positioned as a research lab to tackle complex scientific and engineering challenges associated with high-bandwidth devices that can process large amounts of data [2] - Merge currently has fewer than 50 employees and is planning to continue hiring, without a designated president or CEO [5] Competitive Landscape - The launch of Merge intensifies the competition between Altman and Elon Musk, who were once close business partners and co-founders of OpenAI [3] - Musk founded Neuralink in 2016 to develop implantable devices aimed at enhancing human capabilities and preventing obsolescence in the age of AI [4] Industry Dynamics - The brain-computer interface sector has seen rapid growth, with over $2 billion in funding in the U.S., driven by advancements in AI that provide the necessary computational power for brain implants [5] - Companies are exploring non-surgical products, such as external headsets, which are perceived as more attractive to consumers [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bitmine Immersion, the largest Ethereum holder, announced a $200 million investment in Beast Industries, the company behind YouTube star MrBeast, indicating a significant merger of cryptocurrency and creator economy [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Details - Bitmine will explore collaboration with Beast Industries in decentralized finance, with the transaction expected to complete on January 19 [1]. - Beast Industries is valued at approximately $5 billion, while MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) has a personal net worth of around $2.6 billion [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Context - Despite the high valuation, MrBeast revealed he is currently in a "negative cash flow" situation and has had to borrow money for personal expenses [2][3]. - Forbes estimates MrBeast's annual income to reach $85 million by June 2025, with his stake in Beast Industries contributing to its $5 billion valuation [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - The investment signifies a trend where cryptocurrency firms seek partnerships with brands that capture the attention of younger audiences [2]. - Bitmine's stock has faced pressure due to the collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble, impacting its strategy of holding Ethereum as a balance sheet asset [2][4]. Group 4: Strategic Direction - Beast Industries has applied for the trademark "MrBeast Financial," indicating plans to enter the financial services sector, including cryptocurrency trading and consumer lending [3]. - Bitmine's investment aligns with its strategy to diversify its cryptocurrency exposure and explore practical applications of blockchain technology in consumer markets [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the challenges faced by Apple as TSMC's largest customer due to the rising demand for advanced packaging capacity from competitors like NVIDIA and AMD, leading to significant increases in foundry prices and a shift in capacity allocation dynamics [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - TSMC's revenue growth reached $122 billion in the previous year, a 36% increase, while NVIDIA's sales are projected to surge by 62% by January 2026 [3] - Apple's product revenue growth is expected to be only 3.6% over the 12 months ending December 2025, indicating a stark contrast to the growth of NVIDIA and AMD [3][4] - The shift in TSMC's customer dynamics suggests that Apple is no longer the primary growth driver for TSMC, a role it held five years ago [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - TSMC's gross margin has reached an impressive 62.3%, nearing levels typically seen in software companies, reflecting its enhanced pricing power [2][4] - TSMC forecasts a revenue growth of nearly 30% for 2026, with capital expenditures expected to rise by about 32%, reaching a record $52 to $56 billion [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The evolution of technology roadmaps appears to favor NVIDIA and AMD, indicating that Apple will need to compete for capacity in the near term [5][8] - TSMC's most advanced 2nm process is currently in production, with Apple as a major buyer, but upcoming nodes are expected to focus more on high-performance computing (HPC) needs [5][8] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Despite the competitive pressures, Apple's broad product line across TSMC's multiple fabs provides a level of stability that is still valuable to TSMC [9][10] - TSMC's CEO has expressed concerns about the company's expansion pace and the associated risks, particularly regarding depreciation costs, which are significantly higher than those of its fabless competitors [9]

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher on January 16, with the three major indices initially rising but later experiencing fluctuations and declines, particularly the ChiNext index which turned negative after a 1% increase [1] - The Hang Seng Index also opened higher but subsequently turned negative, with declines in the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index [2][3] - The bond market saw a collective decline in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.35% [3][4] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.01% [1] - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with polysilicon and platinum both rising by 3% [4] - Electric power stocks showed strength, with notable gains in companies like Huayin Power and Leshan Power, which rose by 9.93% and 7.66% respectively [9][10] Technology Sector - Chip stocks continued to perform well, with Tianyue Advanced rising over 12% and several other companies in the semiconductor sector also seeing gains of over 7% [10][11] - TSMC announced a projected capital expenditure of $52 billion to $56 billion for 2026, indicating strong future investment in the semiconductor industry [11] Investment Highlights - The electric power sector is experiencing significant investment, with the State Grid Corporation of China projecting fixed asset investments of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [16] - The bond market is under pressure, with declines across various maturities, indicating potential shifts in investor sentiment [3][4]