台积电：第四季度净利润5,057亿元台币，市场预估4,670亿元台币；第四季度毛利率62.3％，市场预估 60.6％。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is at a critical turning point influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages, with specific forecasts for various commodities through 2026 [1][20]. Oil Market - The short-term oil market is driven by geopolitical premiums, with a price target of $70 per barrel for Brent crude, influenced by tensions in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as export disruptions in Kazakhstan and Libya [3][6]. - However, the long-term outlook is bearish due to expected supply surplus and policy pressures, particularly from the U.S. government aiming for lower oil prices [6][20]. Precious Metals - In the precious metals sector, silver is expected to outperform gold, with target prices set at $100 per ounce for silver and $5,000 for gold, driven by current market momentum and capital flows [7][20]. - The report suggests that these high price levels may trigger hedging actions from producers and central banks [7]. Base Metals - Aluminum is identified as having the most structural opportunity, facing a significant supply deficit, with short-term price targets of $3,400 per ton and mid-term targets of $3,500 [8][20]. - In contrast, copper is forecasted to reach $14,000 per ton, but the confidence in this projection has weakened significantly since December, with a warning that January may be the peak for the year [11][20]. Lithium Market - The lithium market has seen a rebound of over 50%, primarily due to supply constraints from delays in mining operations and tightening policies [12][14]. - Citigroup has raised the three-month price target for lithium carbonate to $25,000 per ton, reflecting strong demand from battery manufacturers [13][20]. - Despite the short-term strength, there is a cautious long-term outlook for lithium prices, anticipating downward pressure as supply increases [14]. Natural Gas and Agriculture - The natural gas market is expected to face long-term supply surplus challenges, with bearish views on LNG and European TTF gas prices starting from 2027 [15][20]. - In agriculture, a bullish outlook is maintained for most commodities, with sugar prices expected to rebound in 2026 due to increased demand from China and changes in Brazilian production [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The return of Zhang Yong, the founder of Haidilao, to the CEO position signifies a strategic shift aimed at addressing growth pressures and enhancing operational efficiency within the company [1][2][4]. Management Changes - On January 13, Haidilao announced a leadership change, with Zhang Yong taking over as CEO from Guo Yiqun, who will focus on the automation and intelligence of management processes [1]. - The board of directors underwent a restructuring, with four new executive directors appointed from within the company, representing a new generation of management [2]. Business Performance - Since its IPO in 2018, Haidilao has experienced leadership changes, with the most recent CEO, Yang Lijuan, implementing strategies to optimize operations and reduce underperforming stores [4][5]. - In the first half of 2024, Haidilao reported over 30% year-on-year revenue growth, with a table turnover rate returning to 4.2 times per day, achieving historical highs in revenue and core operating profit [6]. Challenges and Strategic Initiatives - Despite a recovery in offline consumption, Haidilao faced a 3.7% decline in revenue and a 14% drop in core operating profit in the first half of 2025, attributed to increased competition and changing consumer preferences [8]. - The company is innovating in product offerings and store formats to enhance customer experience, including the introduction of themed stores and new menu items [8][10]. Diversification Efforts - Haidilao's "Pomegranate Plan" aims to explore diversified business models, with 14 new restaurant brands launched by mid-2025, contributing to a significant increase in revenue from other restaurant operations [7][11]. - The company is also focusing on external brand collaborations and acquisitions to enhance its market presence, such as the rapid expansion of the "Jugaogao" self-service hot pot brand [17]. Future Outlook - Zhang Yong's return is expected to streamline decision-making and enhance the execution of the company's multi-brand strategy, with plans to incubate new brands and expand existing ones [18][19]. - The strategic direction remains clear: the main brand will focus on upgrading store experiences, while sub-brands will explore niche markets to drive growth [18].

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November in the U.S. rose to 3%, exceeding expectations, primarily driven by a surge in energy costs, indicating a rebound in overall wholesale inflation pressure [1][6] - Core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained stable, suggesting that the underlying price growth trend is still moderate [1][6] Group 1: PPI Data - The PPI for November increased by 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while the year-over-year increase was 3%, surpassing the anticipated 2.7% [6] - The final demand goods index rose by 0.9%, marking the largest monthly increase since February 2024, largely driven by a 4.6% spike in energy prices, which contributed over 80% to the overall increase [5][6] Group 2: Energy and Service Prices - The rise in energy prices contrasts with the overall decline in international oil prices during the same period, suggesting that the current data fluctuations may stem from domestic energy supply chain disruptions rather than significant input inflation pressure [7] - Service prices remained stable, with a 1.4% increase in portfolio management fees, while airline passenger costs decreased by 2.6%, indicating a divergence in inflation pressures across sectors [5] Group 3: Consumer Resilience and Economic Outlook - Retail sales in November exceeded expectations, demonstrating consumer resilience despite rising price pressures as the holiday shopping season approached [10] - The upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and personal income and spending data will provide critical insights for Federal Reserve policy, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the next meeting [10]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has recently rebounded strongly to a two-month high of $97,500, just shy of the $100,000 mark, coinciding with the U.S. Senate Banking Committee's upcoming vote on a critical cryptocurrency market structure bill, which faces uncertainty due to intense lobbying between Wall Street banks and the cryptocurrency industry over stablecoin yield rights [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Context - The bill aims to clarify the regulatory roles of the SEC and CFTC in the cryptocurrency industry and is seen as crucial for the legitimacy of the sector [2]. - Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's withdrawal of support for the bill highlights significant opposition, emphasizing a preference for no bill over a poorly constructed one [1][2]. - The stablecoin yield payment issue has emerged as the primary point of contention, with banking lobbyists advocating for a comprehensive ban on yield payments related to stablecoins [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Concerns - Armstrong criticized the bill for potentially imposing a de facto ban on tokenized stocks and allowing government access to users' financial records, which could stifle innovation [4]. - The current draft includes provisions that prohibit cryptocurrency companies from offering rewards related to stablecoin holdings, but it exempts certain rewards from members or incentive programs [3][4]. - The proposed compromise in the Clarity Act, which allows cryptocurrency companies to offer rewards for stablecoin transactions, has not satisfied Coinbase's demands [3][4]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The inclusion of conflict of interest provisions pushed by Democrats has added political complexity, particularly due to the Trump family's ties to the cryptocurrency industry [5]. - Republican opposition to these provisions could jeopardize the bill's progress, especially if key Democratic supporters withdraw their backing [5][6]. - The Senate Banking Committee is expected to review over 100 amendments, indicating ongoing negotiations and potential changes to the bill [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall sentiment within the cryptocurrency industry is one of concern, as the upcoming legislation could be perceived as worse than having no bill at all [7][8]. - The Senate Agriculture Committee has postponed its cryptocurrency market structure bill, while the Banking Committee is likely to proceed with its review as scheduled [7][8]. - The future of the bill remains uncertain, with significant implications for the cryptocurrency sector's regulatory landscape [7][8].

面对调查，携程方面迅速回应称："积极配合监管部门调查，全面落实监管要求"，并强调目前各项业务均正常运行。 2026年1月14日，悬在携程头顶的达摩克利斯之剑终于落下。 据国家市场监督管理总局公告，根据前期核查，依据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对携程集团有限公司涉嫌滥用市场支配地位 实施垄断行为立案调查。消息一出，资本市场随即震荡。1月14日，携程港股收盘下跌6.49%，美股盘前一度大跌超15%。 这场风暴对携程究竟意味着什么？华尔街大行与市场分析师们正在从阿里与美团的往事中寻找答案。 股价冲击：从"急跌"到"漫长的估值压制" 调查消息公布后，市场的恐慌性抛售在预期之内。但摩根大通在最新的研报中发出警告：投资者的痛苦可能不会在几天内结束。 摩根大通分析师Alex Yao指出，参考过往阿里和美团的案例，携程股价在初步下探后，很可能进入一个长达4-6个月的"区间波动 阶段"。 "在监管部门做出最终处罚决定或结案之前，由于增量信息出现较慢，市场只能基于潜在的罚款规模和监管风险进行交易，"摩根 大通在报告中分析道，"这意味着，未来半年内，携程的估值都将受到'监管不确定性'的压制。" 瑞银复盘了历史数据：阿里巴巴在立案调 ...

特朗普称将"观望"伊朗局势发展，避险情绪消退打压原油价格，贵金属价格也从历史高位回落。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月14日下午，美国总统特朗普在白宫谈及伊朗局势时表示，"我们要先观望局势发展"。他同时指出美国政府收到了"来自伊朗非 常积极的声明"。WTI原油下挫、较高点跌超3%。 贵金属市场同样剧烈波动。白银价格一度暴跌7.3%，成为当日表现最差的大宗商品之一。特朗普推迟对关键矿产进口征收新关税的决定，导致金、 银、铂、钯等贵金属集体回调。 外汇市场方面，韩元周四在亚洲交易时段小幅走低，此前一日因美国财政部长贝森特提及该货币"过度下跌"而大幅反弹。贝森特的言论为韩元提供了罕 见的口头支持，当前该货币正滑向2009年以来最弱水平。 Wells Fargo驻纽约策略师Brendan McKenna表示： 贝森特的评论能在短期内支撑韩元，但如果市场认为基本面和政治形势仍在恶化，市场影响力可能更大。 韩国央行周四维持基准利率不变，符合市场普遍预期，韩元兑美元下跌0.2%。 货币： ICE美元指数反弹0.02%，报99.13。 日元方面同样受到关注。贝森特周四与日本财务大臣片山皋月通话，指出"过度汇率波动本质上是不可取的" ...

ly 千问APP全面接 阿里巴巴正以前所未有的"创业状态"重塑 AI 竞争格局。 1月15日，千问App宣布全面接入淘宝、支付宝、淘宝闪购、飞猪、高德等阿里生态业务，在全球首次实现点外卖、买东西、订机票等AI购物功能，并向所 有用户开放测试。 千问C端事业群总裁吴嘉表示，此次升级将上线超400项AI办事功能，让千问App成为全球首个能完成真实生活复杂任务的AI助手，带领AI行业从"聊天对 话"迈入"办事时代"。 训 点外卖、买东西、订机票、 支 H FR 35 12/114 C. WET 'a 能 臨 發 在业内看来，这是阿里内部一次"集中力量办大事"的组织力爆发。 让AI干活 吴嘉说，"AI在拥有超强大脑之后，开始长出了能够触达真实世界的手和脚，在生活中实实在在地替用户'干活'。千问是第一个真正能帮你办事的AI，优势 在于'Qwen最强模型'与'阿里最丰富生态'的结合"。 "AI办事时代才刚刚开始一些能力还在探索"，吴嘉豪言，要将千问App打造为最强大的人类AI助手覆盖每一个人。 在发布会上，吴嘉现场演示AI外卖功能，只需给千问App下达一句话指令，"帮我点40杯霸王茶姬的伯牙绝弦"，千问App迅速调用淘宝 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's AI assistant, Qianwen, is transitioning from a simple chat tool to a functional AI capable of completing tasks, marking a significant shift in AI commercialization [2][5]. Group 1: AI Functionality and Integration - Qianwen has surpassed 100 million monthly active users and is now integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem, allowing users to place orders, book flights, and make purchases directly through AI commands [2][3]. - The new version of Qianwen connects with various Alibaba apps, enabling seamless transactions without the need for users to navigate multiple applications [3][16]. - This integration aims to create a commercial loop, addressing the previous limitations of AI models that only provided suggestions without facilitating actual transactions [5][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The AI market has experienced a "virtual fire," where high parameter models failed to generate substantial transactions, leading to a reevaluation of their value [6]. - Competitors like ByteDance's Doubao are taking different approaches, with Doubao focusing on automated UI operations, while Alibaba leverages its existing app ecosystem for direct service execution [17]. - The competition is centered around who can establish user habits and dominate the next decade of AI-driven transactions [18]. Group 3: Global Trends and Comparisons - Similar trends are observed globally, with Google collaborating with Walmart to integrate AI capabilities into retail, mirroring Alibaba's strategy [19]. - Both companies aim to utilize their respective strengths—Google's AI and Walmart's retail network—to enhance user experience and streamline transactions [19]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The transition from conversational AI to practical task execution is not unique to China, indicating a broader shift in the industry [20]. - Analysts suggest that while the integration of AI assistants within large ecosystems is a crucial step, achieving widespread adoption and monetization will require time and overcoming various technical and regulatory challenges [20][21]. - The ultimate goal is to stabilize the financial performance of AI models by ensuring they provide tangible services rather than merely generating high operational costs [21].

Core Insights - Alibaba's Qianwen App is set to revolutionize the way users interact with services, allowing for seamless transactions through natural language commands, marking the beginning of a new "service era" [4][6] - The competition among tech giants like Google, OpenAI, and Amazon for AI-driven e-commerce is intensifying, as they aim to establish the next generation of internet "super entry points" [6][27] Group 1: AI and E-commerce Integration - The integration of AI with e-commerce is transitioning from "discriminative recommendations" to "generative recommendations," fundamentally changing how consumers find and purchase products [8] - The Qianwen App exemplifies a significant shift where user intent can directly translate into transactions, potentially diminishing the relevance of traditional e-commerce platforms [16] - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2030, AI-driven commerce could reach $385 billion, accounting for 20% of total U.S. e-commerce, indicating a major shift in consumer spending habits [16] Group 2: Alibaba's Ecosystem and Competitive Advantage - Qianwen App leverages Alibaba's extensive ecosystem, integrating various high-frequency life scenarios, positioning itself as a central control hub for Alibaba's commercial empire [17][18] - The Qwen model behind the app has surpassed 600 million downloads and outperforms some metrics of GPT-5, benefiting from Alibaba's vast data resources accumulated over years [19] - Unlike competitors, Alibaba combines top-tier AI models with a robust infrastructure for e-commerce and logistics, creating a unique competitive moat [21] Group 3: Monetization Strategies - The shift in AI's narrative from mere conversation to actionable outcomes presents clear monetization pathways, particularly through direct integration with e-commerce [22] - Utilizing AI for direct transactions can significantly enhance conversion rates, as evidenced by a 60% increase in purchase conversion rates when using Amazon's AI assistant [23] - The entire industry is experiencing a surge in activity, with Alibaba's Qianwen App achieving over 100 million monthly active users, reminiscent of a gold rush in the tech space [25] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Major tech companies are engaged in a fierce competition for the "AI super entry point," with each attempting to secure their position in the evolving market [27] - Amazon is focusing on a closed ecosystem with its Rufus shopping assistant, while OpenAI and Google are also making strides to capture market share through innovative features [28][29] - ByteDance's Doubao is attempting to penetrate the market but faces challenges in integrating with Alibaba's ecosystem [30][31] Group 5: Future Implications - The upcoming launch of the Qianwen App is seen as a pivotal moment that could redefine the landscape of e-commerce and consumer interaction [32] - The urgency for market players is to identify and position themselves within this "service revolution," as missing out on AI-driven e-commerce could mean losing significant future opportunities [34] - The onset of the "service era" driven by AI is anticipated to bring transformative changes to consumer behavior and industry dynamics [35]